From 0% in March to 3.75% now

 As Mr Powell notes, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy can be looked at in three dimensions: how quickly it raises rates, how high it raises them and how long it then keeps them there. 

The first dimension is already clear. Although the Fed was late in launching its rate-rise cycle, it has moved with alacrity since starting, raising short-term borrowing rates from 0% in March to 3.75% now

Mortgage rates have more than doubled over the past year, exceeding 7%. That has led to a sharp fall in house purchases.

The Economist 2 November 2022

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/11/02/the-fed-delivers-another-jumbo-rate-rise-and-its-far-from-done


 – Det här var ju inte riktigt den vändpunkt marknaden hade hoppats på, säger Mattias Sundling chef för aktieanalys på Handelsbanken.

Förväntningarna om var den amerikanska styrräntan toppar har nu dessutom höjts till närmare 5 procent mot tidigare 4,6.

Riksbankens styrränta ligger för närvarande på 1,75 procent. Bankens egen prognos pekar på en topp på 2,5 procent i februari 2023, efter höjningar på 0,50 plus 0,25 procentenheter i november och februari. Men frågan är nu om det stoppar där.

SEB räknar med att Riksbanken kommer att höja styrräntan med ytterligare 1 procentenhet till 2,75 procent. Om det blir mer än så, är i dagsläget svårt att bedöma, säger Robert Bergqvist, seniorekonom på SEB.

SvD 3 november 2022

https://www.svd.se/a/9z3MPW/experter-forvantar-sig-monsterhojning-fran-riksbanken-i-november


'Sufficiently Restrictive'. What Does It Mean?

The phrase is sufficiently restrictive, and it appears in the following line in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement Wednesday, some of the only new language in the communique:

The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.

Jonathan Levin Bloomberg 4 november 2022 




Kommentarer

Skicka en kommentar

Populära inlägg i den här bloggen

My blogg short index

Bild
1968 Vojne, vojne, vänsterdårarna kommer AI Artificial intelligence https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/ai-artificial-intelligence.html Akvedukten vid Zaghouan, Sven Otto Littorin och Niall Ferguson. Denna vackra betraktelse från 1994 har sedan dess legat i mitt bakhuvud. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/akvedukten-vid-zaghouan-sven-otto.html Alistair Darling, Northern Rock och Royal Bank of Scotland https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/alistair-darling.html Bank stress tests https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/bank-stress-tests.html Bessent https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/bessent.html Gordon Brown https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/gordon-brown_5.html Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/buy-dip.html Fastighetsbolagen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/fastighetsbolagen.html Tomas Fischer https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/tomas-fischer.html James Grant https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/james-grant.h...
Läs mer

Pfizer in 2019 sold $20 billion of drugs in the U.S. Its federal tax bill? Zero; Ireland

Trump has already singled out pharma companies and countries like Ireland that reap the benefits of tax-avoidance moves.  Despite its small size, Ireland ran an $87 billion trade surplus with the U.S. last year—larger than any country except China, Mexico and Vietnam. https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/how-trumps-tariffs-could-upend-pharmas-overseas-tax-strategy-5b8ca758 Is Ireland vulnerable again as the world’s vast shadow banking system starts to crack? Shadow banking is the dog that has not barked during the latest global spasm of financial stress. This is very fortunate, especially for small countries such as Ireland that have bet the farm on this industry. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/04/is-ireland-vulnerable-again-as-worlds.html Cayman Islands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayman_Islands What the heck is happening in the Cayman Islands? A Sunny Place for a Shady Online Business https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-sunny-place-for-shady-online-business.html Ti...
Läs mer

Cognitive blind spots

Bild
Cognitive blind spots are undermining our ability to see the world as it is, rather than as we would like it to be. At the start of the 21st century, western elites generally assumed that globalisation, democracy and the free market were self-evidently good, and would keep spreading, creating peace. N o longer.  FIS, Swiss Federal Intelligence Service, has published a manual about cognitive blind spots. 18 different cognitive biases that hamper our thinking, such as “group think” (adhering to the cosy assumptions of our tribe), “anchoring” (relying exclusively on whatever information we see first, say on social media),  “confirmation bias” (only seeing data that reinforces pre-existing views),  “mirror imaging” (assuming others think like us),  “absence of evidence” bias (failing to think about the data we lack)  and “survivorship bias” (judging data only with success stories, not failures). Gillian Tett Financial Times 2 January 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/...
Läs mer