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But has the market gone too far?

 The degree to which traders now have confidence that the Fed won’t take rates above 5% after all, and will already be loosening aggressively by the end of next year, is quite breathtaking

Certainly, if we want prices to come down, the October data were everything anyone could sensibly have hoped. It’s also clear that the market has treated this as a major turning point. 

That may be a stretch. Just because the peak is in, the Fed cannot slouch about getting the inflation number down. It’s still supposed to be committed to getting it to 2%, and many sensible measures of inflation are three times that. 

John Authers Bloomberg 11 november 2022 


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