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 Here’s What They Say Now. https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/bitcoin-dimon-fink-griffin-buffet-dalio-crypto-af5af1a5 The day came at last, to the sheer joy of the crypto faithful — and the profound displeasure of skeptics.  US Securities and Exchange Commission for the first time approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in Bitcoin.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/01/caveat-emptor.html

  https://www.ft.com/content/aa6c0013-dbde-4fdc-a673-55e4f2ea76e0 Markets raise bets policymakers will lower rates next week. Loretta Mester, a former president of the Cleveland Fed. “However, they’ve got to be rethinking about next year, because it does look now that the inflation progress has stalled out a bit.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/inflation-gives-fed-green-light-for-december-yellow-for-2025 USA:s inflationstakt mätt som KPI uppgick till 2,7 procent under november efter 2,6 procent i oktober.  Kärninflationen exklusive mat och energi, låg kvar på oktobers nivåer på 3,3 procent Sedan i somras har Fed hävdat att inflationsnedgången fortskrider och arbetsmarknaden försvagas till den grad att det motiverar räntesänkningar.  Med onsdagens novemberdata blir det dock allt svårare att försvara den linjen. KPI-inflationens uppåtkrok kan Fed möjligen avfärda som ännu ett väntat hack i kurvan på den enträgna resan nedåt. Men kärninflationen har ...

 Bitcoin är bara en familjemedlem i en släkt som innehåller minst tiotusen kusiner. Det samlade marknadsvärdet på dessa olika digitala “mynt” är i skrivande stund drygt 3 600 miljarder dollar, varav bitcoin står för drygt 2000 miljarder dollar, motsvarar alltså närmare 40 000 miljarder kronor. Bitcoin kan ses som en slags försäkring mot att hela det finansiella systemet klappar ihop, att förtroendet för centralbanker raseras och att värdet på vanliga så kallade papperspengar går upp i rök. Krypto kan mycket väl vara en bubbla av episka proportioner men isåfall också ett tecken på en motsvarande stor oro (berättigad eller ej) över en ännu större bubbla - nämligen det system vi lever i idag. Andreas Cervenka Aftonbladet nyhetsbrev 8 november 2024 Rolfs länktips 21 November 2024 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 7-8 december 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-7-8-december-2024.html

Cryptocurrency owners should be asking themselves whether their bitcoin, dogecoin and other tokens are safe. Hold them with the wrong broker or custodian, and they might vanish into an interminable bankruptcy proceeding, perhaps never to emerge. The second question is closely linked: Have prices fallen enough to justify buying back in? There is no definitive answer, of course, since these are speculative assets with no basis for valuation.  But for both the remaining speculators and the true believers who think eventually we will all use a crypto financial system, it is worth thinking about how much investors are prepared for a systemic crisis.  For the rest of us, it’s amusing to watch from the sidelines. James Mackintosh WSJ 22 November 2022  https://www.wsj.com/articles/crypto-speculation-is-all-but-over-its-systemic-troubles-arent-11669136978

 Holiday gatherings are going to be awkward for people who told their relatives to buy cryptocurrencies last year. When his family discusses crypto at Thanksgiving this year, Tyler Lucky says his parents will “slap me upside the head and say I’m dumb.” The 28-year-old tech consultant in Virginia told his relatives all about digital currencies and non-fungible tokens at the family gathering in 2021. Now, he’s preparing himself for them to say: “I told you so.”  “They’ll say, ‘Why didn’t you go into something safer?’” Lucky said, adding he expects them to ask why he didn’t invest in companies like Apple Inc. or Microsoft Corp.  For that, he has a ready reply: “They haven’t done so well either.” Claire Ballentine Bloomberg 22 November 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-22/bitcoin-btc-and-ftx-crypto-investors-face-awkward-questions-at-thanksgiving Crypto’s Final Price Could Be Zero No sane lender would extend credit against assets lacking any underlying coll...

Although the repercussions of the carnage in crypto markets won’t be as broad or dire as those of the 2008 financial crisis, the parallels between the two episodes offer insights into what went wrong, and what’s likely to come. All financial manias have some features in common. Strong beliefs feed into self-reinforcing feedback loops. On the way up, positive performance and speculation compound one another, fueled by borrowed money.  On the way down, everything runs in reverse. Failures erode trust and participants flee until the whole system breaks down. In the 2000s, the central belief was that home prices couldn’t decline on a national basis.  In crypto, the belief was that this new market would keep growing until it displaced traditional finance. Bill Dudley Bloomberg 21 november 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-21/want-to-know-where-crypto-is-headed-remember-2008 This crypto pioneer wants tough U.S. laws to prevent another FTX and stabilize digital ...

 “Private cryptocurrencies are not backed or protected by the government, and they shouldn’t be.” Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, said it was appropriate for regulators to treat crypto skeptically because such currencies have been used for speculation, fraud, sanctions evasion and theft. WSJ 15 November 2022 https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-michael-barr-says-crypto-turmoil-highlights-potential-risks-to-financial-system-11668516393 Pyramidspelet Bitcoin faller vidare och ligger nu på sin lägsta nivå sedan 2020.  Fortsatt ointressant, men det kan ju vara kul att titta på utvecklingen ibland, om inte annat för att se hur bitcoiners reagerar när man skriver detta. Lars Wilderäng Cornucopia 14 november 2022 https://cornucopia.se/2022/11/blandade-borser-i-asien-pa-mandagsmorgonen-bitcoin-rasar-vidare-slut-pa-billig-el-igen/ A year ago, cryptocurrencies were roaring and Coinbase Global Inc., considered the Charles Schwab of crypto ex...

 — a swift demise for a company hailed as a trusted platform just a week ago. WSJ Friday 11 November 2022 https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftx-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-11668176869 FTX crash is old lesson for financial newcomers Reuters 10 November 2022 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/11/ftx-crash-is-old-lesson-for-financial.html

FTX is a young company facing an ancient financial problem.  Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency exchange is hanging in the balance, after customers wanted their money back and it wasn’t able to oblige.  Bankman-Fried’s group was valued at $32 billion in January. Now it is probably worthless Reuters 10 November 2022 https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/ftx-crash-is-old-lesson-financial-newcomers-2022-11-10/ The crypto-currency market is double the size of the sub-prime debt in the U.S. on the eve of the financial crisis... and poses a threat unless urgently regulated, the Bank of England said https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/10/the-crypto-currency-market-is-double.html Likely to be missing from discussions will be any mention of 2021  Consumed by this year’s challenges, we’ve all but forgotten the wild excesses that preceded them: the retail investor frenzy that drove up obscure stocks such as GameStop to extreme heights, how some $18tn of bonds were trading at one ...

 Binance bailed on FTX takeover “I f---ed up,” Bankman-Fried told investors on the call, according to people with knowledge of the conversation. He said he would be “incredibly, unbelievably grateful” if investors could help. Bloomberg 9 November  2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/ftx-investors-told-that-without-more-capital-bankruptcy-likely JPMorgan Team Says Crypto Markets Face ‘Cascade’ of Margin Calls JPM strategists say crypto deleveraging set to take few weeks Their analysis sees potential Bitcoin floor of around $13,000 Bloomberg 10 november 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-10/jpmorgan-strategists-warn-of-cascading-crypto-margin-calls-due-to-ftx-crisis FTX - So how could this happen? I don’t know, but let me speculate a little bit Let’s start with Coinbase. Coinbase Global Inc. runs a cryptocurrency exchange. When FTX.com, one of the largest crypto exchanges, was instantaneously vaporized yesterday, Coinbase put out a statement...

  Bitcoin Binance Walks Away From Deal to Buy FTX WSJ 9 November 2022 https://www.wsj.com/articles/binance-is-said-to-be-likely-to-walk-away-from-deal-to-buy-ftx-11668020963 Crypto Has Reinvented Bank Runs FTX’s crisis is a reminder of what is right about traditional finance WSJ 9 November 2022 https://www.wsj.com/articles/crypto-has-reinvented-bank-runs-11668019310 JPMorgan Strategist Says It’s Time to Jump Back Into Stocks, Bonds The strategist forecasts that inflation has already peaked Bloomberg 9 november 2022 15:33 CET https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/jpmorgan-s-kelly-says-it-s-time-to-jump-back-into-stocks-bonds “Shadow banking” It's larger than the world economy. It poses risks to financial stability. The most devastating runs of the 2008 financial crisis were not on bank deposits — as happened during the Great Depression — but on shadow banks such as Lehman Brothers (a broker-dealer) and money-market funds. Bloomberg, 20 November 2017 Minsky Liquidity is ...

De tror att det skall fortsätta som förut. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/browbeaten-stock-bulls-wilt-in-the-face-of-rising-fed-hostility Global Bonds In First Bear Market in a Generation Bloomberg index drops 20% from its January 2021 peak In many ways the economic and policy realities now facing investors hark back to the 1960s bear market for bonds, which began in the second half of that decade when a period of low inflation and unemployment came to a sudden end.  As inflation accelerated through the 1970s, benchmark Treasury yields surged. They would later hit almost 16% in 1981 after then Fed Chair Paul Volcker had raised rates to 20% to tame price pressures.  Bloomberg 2 september 2022  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/global-bonds-fall-into-first-bear-market-in-a-generation Likely to be missing from discussions will be any mention of 2021  Consumed by this year’s challenges, we’ve all but forgotten the wild excesses that p...

and poses a threat unless urgently regulated, the Bank of England said. Crypto assets are now worth $2.3 trillion, about 200% more than at the start of the year. While that’s still a small part of the $250 trillion global financial system, it’s about twice the size of the $1.2 trillion sub-prime real estate debt market in 2008. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-13/boe-says-crypto-now-bigger-than-sub-prime-debt-that-led-to-crash Jemima Kelly, Cryptocurrencies and all that (Bitcoins, Tulips, South Sea Company) https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/05/jemima-kelly-cryptocurrencies-and-all.html

“a purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash” that allows “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”  What is the money of the future? My nine-year-old son thinks it will be Robux. For those of you trapped in the human museum known as adulthood, Robux is the currency used by players of Roblox computer games.  Niall Ferguson Bloomberg 4 april 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-04/don-t-let-china-mint-the-digital-currency-of-the-future Så blev Malmöstudenten miljonär på Roblox Coronapandemin har fått spelplattformen Roblox att fullkomligen explodera av användare, främst i åldrarna 9–12 år.  Simon Mäkelä från Malmö var fjorton år när han skapade sitt första spel och i dag har hans fyra spel spelats 70 miljoner gånger och han har själv tjänat sin första miljon https://digital.di.se/artikel/sa-blev-malmostudenten-miljonar-pa-roblox