Germany elects a new government on Feb. 23. Val i Tyskland
The next chancellor could remove the “debt brake” — the post-Global Financial Crisis measure that puts a constitutional bar on raising the deficit; and
Germany as an arch-exporter stands to lose more than anyone from a trade war.
Conventional wisdom says a grand coalition of the center-right and center-left is almost certain
A grand coalition is popular with markets because it might well be able to end the debt brake, and allow Germany to spend more expansively.
Christian Schulz, German economist at Citi, says that “neither the EU nor the national rules leave meaningful fiscal space to stimulate the economy.”
The needed constitutional reform requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of the legislature. It will take time.
John Authers Bloomberg 12 February 2025
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-12/no-good-alternatives-in-germany-s-elections
Tyskland förlänger landets gränskontroller i sex månader, meddelar förbundskansler Olaf Scholz.
Socialdemokratiske Scholz ser beskedet som att hans löften om att vara beslutsam i kampen mot illegal invandring infrias.
Förbundskanslern säger att kontrollerna hittills lett till att 47.000 personer stoppats vid gränsen.
Även kristdemokratiska CDU med dess bayerska systerparti CSU, som leder i opinionsundersökningarna inför valet, har lovat att agera för att sätta stopp för illegal invandring.
DI/TT 12 februari 2025
https://www.di.se/nyheter/tyska-granskontroller-forlangs-infor-valet/
Can Friedrich Merz still fix Germany?
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/can-friedrich-merz-still-fix-germany.html
France Is in a Deep, Deep Hole
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/france-is-in-deep-deep-hole.html
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