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  The Federal Reserve’s dovish policy pivot is cornering even the most steadfast Wall Street bears into changing their tune on US equities. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who’s been one of the biggest pessimists among sell-side strategists, said Monday that the central bank’s shift last week is “a bullish outcome” for stocks.  Piper Sandler & Co.’s Michael Kantrowitz — who held the most glum S&P 500 Index outlook this year — issued a mea culpa and now says the rally can continue, and the breadth of the advance is likely to improve. Bloomberg 18 December 2023 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-18/fed-s-pivot-is-forcing-stock-market-skeptics-to-become-believers Vilket börsrally! Inte ens den gladaste av oss börsoptimister kunde ha hoppats på detta.  Klart att det kommer en rekyl, men dynamiken underskattas alltid när aktier rusar, huspriser lyfter och räntor sänks.  Rädslan att vara utanför blir drivkraften när ”Fomo” styr.  Henrik Mitelman DI ...

 A succession of senior Fed officials have now tried to damp down expectations for steep rate cuts early in the new year, summarized here by Blooomberg colleague Catarina Saraiva.  That has not reined in excitement.  The debate over Powell’s pivot is like Ebenezer Scrooge facing the spirits on Christmas Eve, and centers on spectres from the central bank’s past, with a strong element of undigested denialism.  The discussion has focused on the 1970s, when US inflation slipped out of control in a way that hasn’t happened before or since. Is it just possible that the risks of leaving rates too high for too long and taking the blame for an avoidable recession now bulk larger? Just how much is next year’s presidential election, and the growing possibility that it will return Donald Trump to power, affecting the Fed’s stance?  It’s undeniable that much of the political establishment hates the notion of a second Trump term (which is a big part of his popularity).  ...

 Marknadsjublet och spekulationer i snabba räntesänkningar är att ta ut segern över inflationen lite väl långt i förskott, varnar Federal Reserves tidigare vice ordförande Richard Clarida. Nils Åkesson DI 18 december 2023 https://www.di.se/nyheter/fed-veteranen-darfor-hoppas-marknaden-pa-for-mycket/ The US Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, are betting that they can have the best of both worlds  — that they’ll be able to defeat excessive inflation without forcing the economy into recession. I hope it goes well. Unfortunately, there’s still a significant chance it won’t. Powell surprised markets last week with his extraordinarily dovish comments on the outlook for interest rates.  The pivot significantly lowers the risk of a recession and hard landing — in large part through its effect on markets.  Problem is, the central bank’s dovishness also increases the possibility of no landing at all — that is, overheating and persistent inflation that could undermin...

”Höga räntor länge” verkar bortglömt. DI 14 december 2023 https://www.di.se/analys/lugn-borsgloden-kan-falna-snart/ Tomterallyt kom tidigt i år. https://www.di.se/nyheter/tomterallyt-kom-tidigt-i-ar-borsen-ar-en-drama-queen/ Nils Åkesson DI 15 december 2023 SaP 1 Y 2112 Det som får börsen att nå nya höjder är förhoppningar om räntesänkningar. Fed rörde på nytt inte räntan på senaste mötet och det stärker investerarnas förtroende om att den amerikanska centralbanken i stället börjar sänka räntorna inom en snar framtid. Men debatten intensifieras samtidigt om börsrallyt är till nackdel och kan komplicera Federal Reserves kamp mot inflationen, skriver The Wall Street Journal. Många investerare prisar in räntesänkningar som lyfter finansmarknaderna ännu mer, men skeptikerna finns också där och ställer sig tveksamma till hur hållbart rallyt är, konstaterar WSJ. Påhejarna av börsrallyt har tidigare tolkat Fed fel Det som oroar är att tillväxten i den amerikanska ekonomin fortfarande bedöms v...