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2021-11-30

What have I done? Caveat Emptor

Jag hade planer på att skriva en bok till. Jag visste vad den skulle heta och hur omslaget skulle se ut.

 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caveat_emptor

Det blev en artikel -  Guldet, euron och budgetunderskottet.


Vad har jag uträttat?

När jag läste i Lund var jag ordförande i det som då hette Konservativa Studentföreningen i Lund, numera Studentföreningen Ateneum 



En website

Rolf Englund Internetional Communications IntCom - on the web since 1995 


Några böcker.


Under sommaren 1966 hade jag ett tillfälligt uppdrag att för Timbros föregångare, Utredningsbyrån för Samhällsfrågor, göra en utredning om svenskt U-landsbistånd. Där skrev jag bl a att: 

"U-ländernas växande skuldbörda inger allvarliga farhågor. Det antas ibland att finansiering på vanliga villkor och från privata källor kommer att bli lättare. Men u-länder med enorma skulder och stora fasta återbetalningsskyldigheter kommer efter konventionella mått att vara föga kreditvärdiga. Om den offentliga hjälpen någon gång i framtiden kommer att upphöra är det svårt att tro annat än att nästa fas skulle bestå i moratorium på förfallande skulder...Detta gör att länder som nu eller inom kort tvingas göra stora återbetalningar... bland dessa länder ingår Argentina, Brasilien, Chile, Turkiet och Indien."

Jag hade således tänkt på detta länge innan jag 1983 skrev inte alls den bästa men kanske den första boken om den dåvarande skuldkrisen i Latinamerika.



Ett oräkneligt antal artiklar. Många kan läsas via länkar nedan.

Dessa artiklar tyckte jag själv var de bästa.



Min första löntagarfondsartikel, 1974, i Svensk Linje m anl av Bo Södersten och Villy Bergström 

Det var svårt för många, uppvuxna med Harpsundsandan, att inse faran. 

Vi var några stycken som fick väcka dem. Nu skriver historikerna om det.

Se t ex "Socialists at the Gate / Swedish Business and the Defense of Free Enterprise, 1940–1985":

Just as Eskilsson had been absolutely essential for creating a new infrastructure for the opinion formation of the business community in the late 1970s, he was also the principal administrator of the campaigns against the wage-earner funds. 

He was, moreover, surrounded both at the higher and lower lever in the SAF hierarchy by like-minded individuals with a strong ideological commitment to free market ideas, such as Curt Nicolin, Olof Ljunggren, Carl-Johan Westholm, Danne Nordling and Rolf Englund. 

Källa: Rikard Westerberg Dissertation for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy, Ph.D., in Business Administration. Stockholm School of Economics, 2020 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/11/socialists-at-gate-timbro-och-dess.html


Jag kände mig till och med tvungen att utmana familjen Wallenberg och styrelsen för SE-banken, där lustigt nog Rudolf Meidner var ledamot som statlig representant.

https://www.internetional.se/resevd977.htm


 - En ledande direktör var Grängeschefen Erland Waldenström som hade en styrande position inom Industriförbundet. Det ledde till att organisationen tillsatte den s k Vinstandelsgruppen som skulle utarbeta ett system för vinstdelning som man trodde skulle kunna avtala med LO om.

Danne Nordling


Lars Tobissons bok Så nära men ändå inte    


Om Löntagarfonderna på min website


Nya Wermlands-Tidningen NWT

Ett stort tack till familjen Ander som 1977-1979 lät mig skriva ett oräkneligt antal ledare i NWT om löntagarfonderna och som lät mig skriva många förgripliga artiklar om EU och EMU i början av 2000-talet.


Euron

Om Maastrichts föregångare, den s k Werner-planen ur boken "Vår framtid i Europa"

(MUF, 1971) av Jan Brännström, Rolf Englund och Claes-Henric Siven

 https://www.internetional.se/siven.html


Ur Förordet av Anders Björck, maj 1971

Debatten om Sveriges förhållande till den gemensamma marknaden är ingalunda slut i och med att regeringen, därtill pressad av vänsteroppositionen inom det egna partiet och av centerpartiet, har deklarerat att ett fullvärdigt svenskt medlemskap i EEC är uteslutet. Mycket tyder på att EEC-debatten kommer att vara aktuell under ett bra tag framöver.



Flygturen var ordnad av Anders Björck, då ordförande i MUF, sedermera bl a försvarsminister 1991–1994 och förste vice talman, för mer se Wikipedia, Vi samlades vid Barkarby flygfält och möttes av Chefen för Flygvapnet, flögs med DC3 till  F 7 i Såtenäs och fick efter middag och övernattning sitta i baksätet på en flygtur med raketskjutning. Även SSU fick motsvarande behandling.

Jag var förbundssekreterare i MUF några år och senare väskbärare åt Gösta Bohman, en post på vilken jag ersattes av Carl Bildt.
 


Jag var med om att bilda kampanjorganisationen Medborgare mot EMU. Vi var med i det vinnande laget i folkomröstningen år 2003. 

Euron är dåligt tänkt rent ekonomiskt och leder till federalism, "ever closer union" och i slutändan till ett The United States of Europe, som jag fruktar kommer att sluta på samma sätt som Jugoslavien som också var en politisk, ekonomisk och monetär union. 

Om det finns länkar här och här.  

Federalisterna drömmer om att skapa ett nytt Romerskt rike.

Rome, Habsburg and the European Union


Jag hade rätt om Kronkursförsvaret 

 


https://www.internetional.se/dn92.html

https://www.internetional.se/iccab92.htm



Jag har haft fel de senaste typ 15 åren om aktiemarknaden.

 


https://www.internetional.se/shares2016.htm 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/Wall%20Street


En orsak kan vara att jag är gammal nog att inte bara har upplevt the Great Recession

utan även the Age Of Stagflation.


Zero Interest Rate Policy - ZIRP

December 5, 2009 varnade jag Bismarck för att fortsätta med ZIRP 

- I think it is blatantly obvious that interest rates worldwide are too low and that a larger part of the stimulus should take place through fiscal policy. 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2014/08/skriande-uppenbart.html

But in vain... They persisted with Zero Interest Rate Policy - ZIRP

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/ZIRP


I was proud being an economist.

Now I have a page about Economic theory discredited

- Economics may be dismal, but it is not a science

Jag inbillar mig inte att jag är en så oerhört duktig ekonom. Däremot inbillar jag mig att jag är nyfiken på hur det faktiskt förhåller sig och har en viss förmåga att känna igen sanningen om någon annan förklarar den. 

Det är inte svårt att förstå vad som händer i världsekonomin. Det är bara att läsa vad Martin Wolf skriver i Financial Times.


- Om man har en sedelpress går man inte i konkurs.

Det skrev jag i november 2011.

Members of a monetary union issue debt in a currency over which they have no control. It follows that financial markets acquire the power to force default on these countries.

This is not the case in countries that are no part of a monetary union, and have kept control over the currency in which they issue debt. 

Martin Wolf FT May 2012


Betyg för Rolf Englund Timbro 1980 - 1995 av Sture Eskilsson

https://www.internetional.se/betygsture.htm


Senare har jag arbetat för min vän finansmannen Tomas Fischer

"Det var jag som betalade Ebbe Carlssons privatspaningar efter Olof Palmes mördare"

https://www.internetional.se/fischerpolt.htm


Englunds lag 1

Har man sagt A, måste man säga B, och har man sagt B är det svårt att säga att A var fel.

 https://www.internetional.se/eso99.htm#lagen


Englunds lag 2 Inflation och handelsbalans. 


U.S. Trade and Current Account Deficit 



här  och här


Cataclysm

cataclysm, n. -- Syn. upheaval, disturbance, disaster, ...


Doom 

Mene, Tekel Daniel 5: The writing on the wall


Doom and more doom


Climate Change, euphemism for Climate Disaster

A basically agree with Greta and having lived in interesting times I fear that my daughter and my grandchildren will live in even more interesting times.



Min första artikel i en stor tidning. Vad gör vi åt befolkningsexplosionen?

Rolf Englund Svenska Dagbladet, Fritt Forum (dåtidens Brännpunkt) 4/8 1967

-  början av 1960-talet uppgick jordens befolkning till ungefär 3 miljarder. Enligt föreliggande beräkningar kommer antalet att år 2000 att uppgå till något mellan 6 och 7 miljarder.

https://www.internetional.se/egosvd19670804.pdf

----------------------

Första gången på bild i Svenska Dagbladet, 11 maj 1943

https://www.internetional.se/43.htm


Läste i Lund. Those were the days...

https://www.internetional.se/lund.htm


Min barndoms somrar

https://www.internetional.se/osterskar.htm


Min barndoms hjältar

Biggles  https://internetional.se/Biggles.html  

och

Prins Valiant  


Tillbaka till startsidan på denna blog.




 


2021-11-26

The Bic Picture

Index

Dow Före Pandemin nästan 30.000 Botten 23.000 Nyligen 36.000

Nasdac  Före Pandemin 9.700 Botten 7.000 Nyligen 15.800

Stockholm  Före Pandemin 700   Botten 500 Nyligen 1.000 +


One reason the first Covid crash was so brutal back in March 2020 was all the froth that built up in markets before the virus landed. While there are differences for traders navigating the latest scare, a lot is the same, too. 



Dow futures tumble over 800 points on fears over new COVID variant detected in South Africa

MarketWatch Nov. 26, 2021 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-tumble-400-points-on-fears-over-new-covid-variant-detected-in-south-africa-11637908694


A heavily-mutated Covid variant emerges in southern Africa: 

Here’s what we know so far





2021-11-24

Geopolitics will bring this long bull market to a close

Enjoy it while it lasts, for one thing that can be said for sure is that something will eventually come along that will rock the complacency of investors to the core, even if it’s impossible to say what it might be until it actually happens.

Jeremy Warner Telegraph 24 November 2021

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/24/geopolitics-will-bring-long-bull-market-close-not-interest-rates/


Politicians and central bankers are colluding to turn a blind eye to the surge in inflation, opting to pump-prime the economy with cheap money to eke out growth, keep tax and spending flowing and grow asset values to dupe the majority into thinking they are becoming wealthier. 

Easy money has already convinced politicians that they no longer have a budget constraint and it is safe to turn on the spending taps.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/17/catastrophic-elite-failure-destroying-economic-foundations-west/


2021-11-23

COP26 in Glasgow disaster

It remains very doubtful whether our divided world can muster the will to tackle this challenge in the time left before the damage becomes unmanageable.

Climate Action Tracker has provided a helpful summary of where we are

https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/

Full implementation of all submitted and binding targets would deliver 2.1C

GFANZ consists of the world’s leading asset managers and banks, with total assets under management of $130tn.

https://www.gfanzero.com/progress-report/

It is too soon to abandon hope. But to be complacent would be absurd. We need to act powerfully, credibly and quickly

Martin Wolf 23 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/6e2b366f-e139-4d69-bd4f-9254333bf316


Mats Qviberg - aktuell som alltid

På partistämman deklarerade Maud Olofsson från talarstolen att partiet bytt sin sedan 30 år drivna uppfattning. 

Hon klämde fram en tår i ögonvrån och sade att det hade hon gjort för barnens skull, varpå stämmodeltagarna reste sig applåderade.

Mats Qviberg har väl haft mycket att tänka på under finanskrisen och kan ha missat att vad som meddelades i Ekot måndagen den 5 februari 2007: Centern öppnar för dialog om EMU.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2009/05/mats-qviberg-tar-miste-om-centerpartiet.html

Finansmannen Mats Qviberg har bytt fot i EMU-frågan och säger nu att han ska rösta nej 

"Jag bestämde mig i onsdags när jag lyssnade på Jens Spendrup."

Dagens Industri 6/9 2003


Annie Johansson numera Lööf (C) ångrar ett politiskt beslut:

att hon röstade nej till att byta krona mot euro 2003.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2011/08/annie-johansson-c-ar-en-kappvandare-om.html


Det gick inte längre att veta om svenska banker skulle kunna sköta sin finansiering på den globala marknaden", berättar Stefan Ingves

"Vi såg att alla varningslampor lyste rött. Alla signaler från bankvärlden sa samma sak. Det gick inte längre att veta om svenska banker skulle kunna sköta sin finansiering på den globala marknaden", berättar Stefan Ingves.

"Riksbankens valutareserv var netto lika med noll. Allt hade sålts på termin. Det innebar att i viss mening var Sverige vid vägs ände när det gällde den tidigare regimen", berättar Stefan Ingves.

Gunnar Örn DI 28 oktober 2015

https://www.di.se/weekend/den-skuldmedvetne/

Highly Recommended


Krisen i banksystemet utlöstes ... av ett internationellt misstroende och inansieringssvårigheter på den internationella marknaden.

Urban Bäckström i Ekonomisk Debatt nr 1/98

https://www.internetional.se/emuallan.html#sandlista


Gunnar Wetterbergs vilseledande historieskrivning om kronkursförsvaret och 90-talskrisen

Omvärlden litade inte på Sveriges ekonomi och statens försök att rädda den svenska kronan genom att chockhöja räntan resulterade i ekonomisk kollaps.  

SvT 22 november 2021

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/ekonomi/folk-sparade-da-blev-det-annu-varre

När kronkursförsvaret hade misslyckats, och konkurrenskraften därmed förbättrats, var det korkat att fortsätta med åtstramningarna.

Detta så mycket mera som dollarkursen på 5.30 typ, hade börjat stiga igen av egen kraft.




Göran Persson om 90-talet: Vi gjorde mycket fel, naturligtvis. Kanske borde vi ha sparat lite mindre. SvD 7 maj 2017

 
På hemmaplan var det betydligt färre som öppet vågade kritisera valutapolitiken
En av dissidenterna på den borgerliga kanten var Timbroekonomen Rolf Englund
Gunnar Örn, Dagens Industri 15 september 2012 

Tack Gunnar för dessa ord som har varit till stor tröst för mig.

 

2021-11-22

The world is in a debt trap

Over the past four decades, total debt more than tripled to 350 per cent of global gross domestic product.

No matter what happens to near-term inflation and growth, the world is too indebted for rates to rise much higher.

Ruchir Sharma FT 22 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/c9e0c2c1-55af-4258-9c92-92faa111f41e

The writer, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s chief global strategist, is author of ‘The Ten Rules of Successful Nations’


Credit Markets Are Full of Alarms and No One Cares

The Federal Reserve’s corporate-bond bailout in March 2020 has helped encourage a debt binge unlike any other.

Investors see little choice but to whistle past the graveyard. Risks may be piling up, but haven’t you heard Junk-rated companies have the least debt relative to earnings since 2015.

“Covenants do continue to get worse,” said Pisano. “Every day something comes up that makes them worse.”

Brian Chappatta Bloomberg 22 november 2021 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-22/credit-markets-are-full-of-alarms-and-no-one-cares


Fed should raise interest rates now

The Fed thought it would have plenty of time to reverse its easy-money policies, but the surge in inflation makes that idea obsolete.

Stephen S. Roach MarketWatch Nov. 22, 2021  

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-should-raise-interest-rates-now-to-stop-inflation-instead-of-relying-on-tapering-the-balance-sheet-to-do-the-job-11637590740


The key problem haunting the Fed: can adjustment occur without another 2020-style freeze?

Gillian Tett FT 18 November 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/the-key-problem-haunting-fed-can.html


För varje dag som går med nollränta växer problemen. Hushåll, företag och stater ökar sin skuldsättning.

Alla är glada. Utom riksbankscheferna som vet att de inte har någon plan för återgång till något slags normalitet.

Hur skall detta sluta? Det kommer att sluta illa den dag räntorna stiger. Ju längre det dröjer, desto mer illa kommer det att sluta.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/03/for-varje-dag-som-gar-med-nollranta.html





2021-11-20

Low GDP growth + high prices is different than the 1970s stagflation, but is stagflation nonetheless and MP3

 MP3 the third-generation monetary policy that now prevails worldwide. MP3’s key feature is closely coordinated monetary and fiscal policy.

MP3 creates demand without creating any supply.

Under MP3, governments and central banks responded to COVID by sustaining incomes without sustaining supply. The result was rising demand relative to supply, and here we are.

So consumers, unable to spend on services, demanded more goods—roughly 15% more than our logistical infrastructure had ever produced and delivered. Et voila, supply shortages. Throw in supply chain problems and you get inflation in goods.

My friends at Denmark’s Nordea Bank keep a sharper eye on US inflation than some Americans do. Their latest outlook is more than a little concerning

https://corporate.nordea.com/article/69282/us-inflation-five-charts-on-why-us-inflation-hasnt-peaked-yet?mc_cid=0b36a12788&mc_eid=2d023d1f41

But the real threat is housing prices. Shelter inflation has looked subdued in this cycle because of CPI’s bizarre methodology.

Unrealistic housing price assumptions gave Alan Greenspan, Janet Yellen, and now Jerome Powell room to keep rates low. As I said last week, OER is broken. Properly accounted for, shelter costs would have inflation at 10% in a very public manner no one could dismiss as “transitory.”

Higher energy prices lead to higher fertilizer prices, since fertilizer manufacturing uses large amounts of natural gas. Either expensive fertilizer or lack of fertilizer will mean higher food prices.

Neil Howe is my guru for all things demographic, Neil says the overriding #1 issue is labor force participation, not unemployment. 

That last $1.9 trillion stimulus bill was simply an inflation bridge too far. The intentions were good, but there are unintended consequences as it was coupled with QE and zero interest rates.

Low GDP growth + high prices is different than the 1970s stagflation, but is stagflation nonetheless.

John Mauldin November 19, 2021

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/shortages-are-relative


2021-11-19

A story quite different from what Summers, Blanchard et al. were predicting

And given the actual inflation story, calls for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to cool off the economy look premature at best.

Paul Krugman NYT 19 November 2021

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/19/opinion/inflation-economy-supply-chain.html


Inflation: is now the time to get worried?

Policymakers are divided over whether rising prices are temporary or permanent. A wrong response could derail the recovery

  “team transitory” is in an increasingly fierce battle with “team permanent”.

Chris Giles  FT The Big Read  19 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/570e9180-45fb-4157-9727-553c2471c309


 

It took courage to lift rates in 1979 to kill inflation. The gutsy move for today may be to stand fast until we have more jobs

 For many of today’s leading policymakers and economists, the 1970s inflation and the discontent it caused are hard to forget

Among this group, former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker is regarded as a brave public servant—the one person who had the will to break that inflation through a series of politically unpopular rate hikes that induced a recession. 

Total nonfarm payrolls stand at 148 million, 5 million below the 153 million before the pandemic.

Fed that for years missed its employment goals or underestimated how strong the labor market could get without triggering sustained inflation.

Pulling a Volcker now might entail ignoring politicians, Ph.D. economists, and various editorial boards who all want a fast turn to inflation-fighting mode. 

Joe Weisenthal

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-19/fed-s-powell-fights-high-inflation-in-his-1970-s-paul-volcker-moment


Volcker startade sedelpressarna, inte Greenspan.

Gavyn Davies 6 april 2014 




Here’s Why the Fed Could Stay Easy for a LOOONG Time







Moderna ekonomiska teorier berikar staten och kapitalet på andras bekostnad

Sverige /han menar den svenska staten/ borde skuldsätta sig mer, är ett budskap som allt oftare hörs i den politiska debatten.  

I de flesta länder har såväl offentlig som privat skuldsättning skenat – i Sverige mest privat, svenska hushåll är näst mest skuldsatta av jämförbara europeiska länder. 

Men så länge räntorna på lånen förblir låga är det inget att oroa sig för, och så kommer det att förbli, menar entusiasterna. Teorin är fundamentalt feltänkt av flera anledningar. I modern tid har ingen av Sveriges tillväxtperioder drivits av offentlig skuldsättning.

 Den enkla poängen är att i stort sett alla resurser i ekonomin har en alternativ användning. Att använda dem som staten önskar har alltså en alternativkostnad, vad nykeynesianerna än säger.

Mattias Svensson SvD 2021-11-18



Professor Lars Calmfors har bytt åsikt om det finanspolitiska ramverket


The high-yield bond market, often also called junk bonds

Fuss was sceptical that the Federal Reserve would be able to lift interest rates significantly in the coming years  - said he was mostly worried about the high-yield bond market, often also called junk bonds.

Fuss started his career in finance in 1958, when he left the US Navy for a job at Wisconsin bank. After a subsequent stint managing Yale University’s endowment he joined Loomis Sayles in 1976 and managed one of its flagship bond funds until he finally stepped back from day-to-day portfolio management earlier this year, aged 87.

The average yield of US high-yield bonds spiked to a peak of over 11 per cent in March 2020, but fell to a record low of under 4 per cent earlier this autumn.

FT 19 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/50e1c3c1-8922-40d2-9c95-737fb5bb8ad0


U.S. corporate financial debt to $11.2 trillion from $2.5 trn over the past three decades


The key problem haunting the Fed: can adjustment occur without another 2020-style freeze?

The US government bond market used to be considered to be the world’s most liquid and deep asset class, in March 2020 that cosy assumption was smashed apart.

Fed intervention prevented a complete crash. But it forced the Fed to step in with what John Williams, NY Fed president, has called “staggering” amounts of liquidity support, reaching almost $1tn each day.

Gillian Tett FT 18 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/d2639eee-0b36-40b4-87c5-41087d8b7893


Bill Gross  says stimulus and low interest rates have created ‘dangerous’ situation

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/2005-alan-greenspan-complained-of.html


US government debt is a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941.

Niall Ferguson FT February 10 2010


2021-11-18

Europe is at the mercy of Russia's gas supply, showdown with Brussels looks certain

 Whatever Mr Putin’s plans for Ukraine, possibly seizure of the Donbass and the Black Sea coast as far as Odessa, a parallel showdown with Brussels over the Baltic Nord Stream 2 pipeline looks certain to escalate.

German regulators have suspended the certification process because Gazprom was trying to get around EU monopoly laws

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 18 November 2021

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/18/energy-crisis-looms-know-would-rather-winter/



For a generation of investing pros, stable prices were a fact of life

What do you do when the old assumptions stop making sense?

For people working in finance, it’s a moment of extreme career risk—or a chance to be a hero to their bosses and their clients if they get it right. Many have never been here before.

Already, the real annual yield on a safe 10-year Treasury—accounting for the market’s expected inflation—is a percentage point below zero. For the moment, investors seem to care as much about having a haven as they do about staying ahead of inflation.

Katherine Greifeld Bloomberg 18 November 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-18/wall-street-bets-on-surging-inflation-could-kill-career-of-top-traders


They don’t want to be what investor Mark Kritzman calls “wrong and alone.” 

A manager with one-third of assets in Chinese stocks won’t get fired if that market falls, since almost every other firm has similar exposure. Being wrong together gives every manager plausible deniability.

But a firm that holds little or nothing in Chinese stocks will be blamed by clients if China booms, since its funds will lag behind their competitors. 

Being wrong and alone is what gets asset managers fired.




America’s booming demand for goods shattered the supply chain

 


Tthrough September, the total container volume coming into and leaving the nation has increased by nearly 22% from one year ago, and over 16% from 2019. 

This amount of container traffic, as measured by twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, is unprecedented. It is being propelled by the volume of imported containers coming into the United States, which have increased by 25% from 2020 and nearly 20% from two years ago. 

Many of the containers are being sent back empty.  

MarketWatch Nov. 18, 2021

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-americas-booming-demand-for-goods-shattered-the-supply-chain-11637242353


Empty shipping containers worsen stress on the US supply chain

FT 18 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/40f667ce-b979-4171-9cd1-b935d06728c4                                                                                 

Supply Chain Crisis

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/supply


Evergrande default is highly likely, S&P says

 “The firm has lost the capacity to sell new homes, which means its main business model is effectively defunct. This makes full repayment of its debts unlikely,” the analysts said.

CNBC NOV 18 2021

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/china-evergrande-default-is-highly-likely-sp-says.html



Record selling by insiders is setting up stocks for a big fall, says contrarian investor

“People are really underappreciating the degree of risk that they’re taking because now that we have — especially for the really big megacap names — even greater overvaluation than we’ve had before, the downside risk is extremely high,”  

“We’ve had all-time record levels of insider selling meaning that the top executives, the people that are the most experienced investors in the world, have been pretty much spending all year getting rid of their stakes in some cases and unloading huge amounts of shares they have accumulated for decades,” said Kaplan.

A year ago Steven Jon Kaplan predicted a big selloff that didn’t really materialize

For 2022, he sees  highflying stocks falling hard and possibly panicking inexperienced investors. That is because “anybody who’s 30 years old or younger, the last time we had a bear market, they were in high school or even earlier grades so they don’t even have the experience of knowing what it’s like to invest in a bear market,”

MarketWatch Nov. 18, 2021 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/record-selling-by-insiders-is-setting-up-stocks-for-a-big-fall-says-contrarian-investor-11637238152


Casablanca for Conservatives - Niall Ferguson plays the victim

Having enjoyed tenure at Harvard University, the London School of Economics, and New York University, and now a steady gig at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, the historian Niall Ferguson now plays the victim. He will soon decamp, he lets us imagine, to “a new kind of university – the University of Austin.”

 If Friedrich Engels were still around, could he endow a chair for Karl Marx?

Still, after reading Ferguson’s announcement, I cannot help but hear Humphrey Bogart’s famous words echoing in my ear: “Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, [he] walks into mine...”

James K. Galbraith, a trustee of Economists for Peace and Security, holds the Lloyd M. Bentsen, Jr. Chair in Government/Business Relations at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin.  

Project Syndicate 12 November 2021

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/university-of-austin-by-james-k-galbraith-2021-11


Humphrey Bogart’s famous words 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0034583/


Some people were apparently shocked to learn that gambling was occurring at Rick's Cabaret

https://www.internetional.se/casablanca.htm





2021-11-17

The truth behind the new climate change denial

 The claim: A 'Grand Solar Minimum' will halt global warming

The claim: Global warming is good

The claim: Climate change action will make people poorer

The claim: Renewable energy is dangerously unreliable

 BBC Reality Check 17 November 2021

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59251912

 


Shouldn't sea levels have risen by now?

 Simon Clark Youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNkVGiSgOM4


”Efter en viss ålder börjar folk betrakta dig på ett lite förlåtande sätt, ett lite medlidsamt sätt”, sa Horace Engdahl

 ”Låt säga att jag är kontroversiell. Hur länge till tar man det på allvar och när betraktar man det bara som gammelmansgnäll?”

Jag tror att det är en riktig iakttagelse att gamla människor ofta inte tas på samma allvar i samhällsdebatten, och särskilt för en person som Engdahl måste det vara en smärtsam del av åldrandet.

Lisa Irenius SvD 

https://www.svd.se/horace-engdahl-har-ratt-om-aldrandet


Horace Engdahl i en intervju med SvD:s Elisabet Andersson 

https://www.svd.se/jag-angrar-att-jag-betedde-mig-obeharskat


If the specter of gradually raising interest rates from near zero is enough to cause a market panic...

perhaps the Fed should take that as a sign that the financialization of the American economy has gone too far.

One particular scene from “Yes, Prime Minister,” on a four-stage strategy to crisis management, does seem to capture the messaging on inflation

The “neutral” fed funds rate that’s neither accommodative nor restrictive is 2.5%. That’s a long way from zero.

Brian Chappatta Bloomberg 17 november 2021 

Highly Recommended

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-17/the-fed-has-more-options-than-0-rates-or-recession

Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer David Solomon

 “When I step back and think about my 40-year career, there have been periods of time when greed has far outpaced fear -- we are in one of those periods,” Solomon said in an interview at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. 

“My experience says those periods aren’t long lived. Something will rebalance it and bring a little bit more perspective.”

“Chances are interest rates will move up, and if interest rates move up that in of itself will take some of the exuberance out of certain markets,” Solomon said. 

Bloomberg 17 November 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/goldman-s-solomon-warns-pandemic-exit-could-get-bumpy 

Diagram energi och befolkning

 





Tack till Anders Fischer och Vlade Naumovski


One of Winston Churchill's famous quotes is that democracy is the worst form of government except for all others

I've used this quote in past blog posts to express a world-weary, second-best opinion of elected officials, political campaigns, or voter ignorance. It's hardly inspirational.

In research an article that I'm writing about Churchill, though, I've come to see that his quote was very different. 

Here is what he actually said (in a speech to the House of Commons in 1947):

[I]t has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time; but there is the broad feeling in our country that the people should rule, and that public opinion expressed by all constitutional means, should shape, guide, and control the actions of Ministers who are their servants and not their masters.

This conveys a completely different. Churchill was not saying that he thought democracy is the worst form of government except all others. Indeed, he was rejecting that notion in favor of popular rule. And if you look at his speeches over many decades, you find a consistent theme in support of democracy as an ideal that he cherished. 

Gerard Magliocca on January 31, 2019

https://prawfsblawg.blogs.com/prawfsblawg/2019/01/misquoting-churchill-on-democracy.html


 


Fed policy must adjust. Even if the price rises could be transitory, they risk becoming permanent

This is how the world is beginning to feel to someone whose life as an economist began in the 1970s: over-optimism on potential supply, until it was too late. 

Current policy would make sense in a depression. But we no longer risk a depression.

All the big central banks are still largely locked into policy settings introduced in March 2020, at the peak of the Covid-induced panic. In the US, this seems wildly inappropriate.

Martin Wolf FT 16 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/dc3bedc7-5694-4868-8b86-f9a215966f52


Professor Lars Calmfors har bytt åsikt om det finanspolitiska ramverket

 – Jag har brottats med frågan. Jag tycker nu att argumenten för en omprövning har blivit starkare än argumenten emot.

Det handlar om det finanspolitiska ramverket som Sverige har haft sedan 1990-talet. 

Utgiftstak, överskottsmål, skuldankare. Tekniska termer. Men i grund och botten regler som går ut på att Sverige över tid ska spara, att staten ska ta in mer pengar än den gör av med.

SvD 14 November 2021

https://www.svd.se/hogre-skuldsattning-ar-inte-ett-problem


 Det är olyckligt att frågan tas upp nu. Det är inte bra, det gör att hela konstruktionen förlorar i trovärdighet, säger Harry Flam, som var ordförande i rådet från 2016 till 2020.

Lars Jonung, ordförande 2011 till 2013, håller inte med. Ramverket har tjänat oss väl och det finns inga övertygande skäl att ändra på det innan nästa översyn, säger han.

John Hassler, ordförande mellan 2013 och 2016, håller i mångt och mycket med. Det är ingen fara om Sveriges statsskuld skulle växa.

– Det är verkligen en statsfinansiell gratislunch. Med låga räntor kan vi öka upplåningen utan att vi behöver höja skatten, säger han.

Harry Flam varnar för att Sverige kan hamna i en rävsax i framtiden om vi låter statsskulden stiga nu.

SvD 16 november 2021

https://www.svd.se/calmfors-far-mothugg-inte-lage-att-ata-gratislunchen


Hur blev det så att I Sverige är hård budgetdisciplin, ända sedan 1990-talskrisen, närmast en statsreligion?

Kommentar RE: Budgetdisciplinen blev statsreligion sedan den tidigare statsreligionen, den fasta växelkursen, hade havererat. De ansvariga ville inte erkänna att krisen berott på den fasta växelkursen utan odlade myten om att krisen berott på underskottet i statsfinanserna, därav enigheten om sparpaketen. 

Lars Jonung, även han tidigare ordförande för Finanspolitiska rådet, en annan av statsreligionens överstepräster, gjorde nyligen denna historieskrivning

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/09/hur-blev-det-sa-att-i-sverige-ar-hard.html


Englunds lag lyder så här: 

”Har man sagt A, måste man säga B, och har man sagt B är det svårt att säga att A var fel.”





2021-11-16

Free markets and technology may yet deliver a 1.5C world

The technologists on the front line solving the problem, and the corporations racing ahead with net zero faster than the political class can keep up, or the environmental old guard seems able to believe. It was a festival of optimism.

In one room Rolls-Royce engineers explained how they can already run the world’s existing fleet of passenger jets on 50pc clean fuel, with 100pc clean energy engines being tested successfully, and with the prospect that this fuel will be generated by small modular reactors.

In another room, CWP Global explained how it is developing super-sized renewable hubs in Patagonia, or the Sahara, or the Australian outback, able to produce breathtakingly cheap electricity from wind and solar. 

Few understand how quickly Big Money has gone from being the careless enabler of fossil pollution and land abuse to becoming instead the arch-enforcer of the green order, pulling forward change

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 16 November 2021

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/16/free-markets-technology-may-yet-deliver-15c-world/


CWP Global 

https://www.cwp.global/


A perfect inflation hedge should satisfy two distinct criteria, and no one yet has figured out how

 to construct an investment vehicle that does more than satisfy just one of these two goals. 

These two criteria consist of a short-term goal of being correlated with inflation, and a long-term goal of outperforming inflation.

TIPS — Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities? They are an extreme example, since they do an unparalleled job of satisfying the short-term goal while failing to satisfy the long-term goal. 

That’s because, by design, the TIPS yield is pegged to changes in the CPI.

Yet TIPS do a very poor job of fulfilling the long-term goal. In fact, their real yield currently is negative.

Mark Hulbert MarketWatch 16 November 2021

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-stocks-gold-tips-and-specialized-etfs-stack-up-as-inflation-fighters-11637050914


U.S. power grid will be able to handle the influx of electric vehicles in the coming years

 “We could handle it right now,” Akins said in an interview on “Mad Money.”

AEP plans to invest $38 billion in capital from 2022 to 2026, including an operation to construct a more efficient grid. 

“There are some utilities that are very good at keeping up and there are others that aren’t,” Cramer reflected while speaking with Akins. “Not all grid is created equally.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/12/we-could-handle-it-right-now-aep-chief-says-us-power-grid-can-sustain-influx-of-evs.html


Wall Street bankers biggest bonuses since Great Recession

Booming deal activity, a hot IPO market and climbing equities mean bankers and traders are in line for outsized performance-based compensation

 CNBC NOV 16 2021

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/16/wall-street-is-set-for-biggest-bonuses-since-great-recession-report.html

 

The Seventh Seal and Financial Markets

The Seventh Seal is a film about the silence of God. It’s set in medieval Europe, during the Plague and the Crusades. The Seventh Seal is about medieval European society’s response to the apocalyptic destruction wrought by the plague.

As investors, we too wrestle with God’s silence. It’s not war or plague that shakes our faith but changes in the structure and behavior of financial markets. How do we respond?

Inquisitors burn witches.

Charlatan theologians prey on the weak and the naive.

Flagellants put on bizarre religious displays.

https://demonetizedblog.com/2019/01/09/mortification-of-the-flesh/


THIS BLOG DOES NOT PROVIDE INVESTMENT ADVICE!

 I say the same thing as is elegantly written on below

https://demonetizedblog.com/important-disclosure/


2005 Alan Greenspan complained of a conundrum

 He had hiked the Fed’s target rate six times, by a total of 150 basis points, and yet he had barely budged the 10-year Treasury yield. 

It remained steady, and continued its gently declining trend.

 A quiescent 10-year rate enabled the disastrously over-ambitious structured credit monstrosities that would bring down the economy. 

Now we have a new version of the conundrum.

Not even this inflation spike can dislodge the most reliable and most important trend in modern finance

John Authers Bloomberg 16 november 2021



Conundrum at IntCom - 2005 and all that



Bill Gross  says stimulus and low interest rates have created ‘dangerous’ situation  

... financial euphoria in everything from stocks to digital assets like “non-fungible tokens”

Gross sceptical inflation would stay this high or accelerate further predicted, however, that it was likely to stay well above the Fed’s 2 per cent target for the foreseeable future.

“One of these days, one of these years, or one of these decades, the system will collapse, because capitalism depends on savers saving and investing.”

Robin Wiggleswort FT 16 November 2021



Bill Gross at IntCom




To have a good chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C,

global production of coal, oil and gas must start declining immediately and steeply. Nothing that came out of Glasgow suggests this will happen. 

UN climate process does not work. This is not because the science discussed at the COP meetings is faulty. The problem is political. 

Domestically, politicians have good reason to fear that the cost of decarbonisation will be electoral defeat or social unrest.

 The repeated failures of the UN process have led many to denounce the current generation of world leaders as deficient or immoral. But different leaders, placed under the same pressures, would probably come up with similar results.

Gideon Rachman FT 15 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/ae6a8e8f-94db-4f06-a377-343a84e9be4d

 

2021-11-14

Cumulative CO2 emissions since 1750



Unlike the EU’s green deal, China is likely to deliver on what it pledges, 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/12/china-final-giant-piece-surprisingly-successful-cop26/


The industrial West that account for the vast majority of the 2,500 gigatonnes of atmospheric carbon accumulated since the mid-19th Century

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/the-industrial-west-that-account-for.html



2021-11-13

The most optimistic pledges made by countries to limit global warming may not be enough

Global warming has already seen temperatures rise by 1.1C since pre-industrial times, as a result of the release of about 2,400 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide since 1850 from human activity.

FT 12 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/3e287ff2-0f74-43f4-85ee-bf48ee01c934


COP-presidenten i tårar – här klubbas historiska avtalet igenom

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/klimatavtalet-klart-forandringar-i-sista-minuten


 Men oavsett allt kommer isarna fortsätta att smälta och haven kommer fortsätta att stiga.

Erika Bjerström SvT  13  November 2021

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/analys-en-historisk-enighet-om-att-fasa-ut-fossila-branslen

 

6 takeaways from the U.N. climate conference

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/13/climate/cop26-climate-summit-takeaways.html


COP26 has achieved more than expected but less than hoped

More ambitious climate plans are vital at the next conference a year from now

THE EDITORIAL BOARD FT 14 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/fdbf574a-1294-4595-ab8a-ba11d42538d0




How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy?

Here’s a look at five of them: how much they produce, what they cost, and what obstacles they face.

WSJ 10 November 2021




Bond sell off continues as 10-year break-even rate reaches 2.76%

Break-evens are the difference between the yield on Treasury inflation protected securities — or the so-called real yield — and the yield on a similarly maturing Treasury note.

Because interest payments on Tips are adjusted for inflation, the break-even rate signals how traders and investors predict inflation will move in the future. 

FT 12 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/59d0b03a-f716-4c7a-9bf5-b5c87082cbdd


U.S. consumer sentiment hits pandemic low as inflation expectations hit 13-year high

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-sentiment-hits-pandemic-low-as-inflation-expectations-hit-13-year-high-11636730249



Yields on inflation-protected bonds maturing over the next couple of years are strongly negative, implying that investors expect rapid price rises in the near term. 

But longer-term market expectations of inflation have remained stable.

Krugman NYT 11 November 2021


2021-11-12

Michael O’Rourke “In case there are bubble doubts.”

“Since the U.S. financial markets have achieved new levels of insanity, we want to make sure we document this moment in time for posterity’s sake. Apparently, we have not learned anything from the Equity, Housing and Credit bubbles that occurred between 1999 and 2008.

“It can’t be any clearer than the fact that the S&P 500’s market capitalization is 177% of U.S. GDP,” adds O’Rourke

MarketWatch 12 November 2021

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/doubting-that-we-could-be-in-a-stock-market-bubble-heres-the-chart-you-need-to-see-11636719571


A “fear of missing out” has gripped global markets, lifting everything from stocks to cryptocurrencies to record highs and forcing even staunch bears to throw in the towel.

US equities are at the epicentre of the worldwide rush into stocks that has almost doubled the MSCI All-World share index since the coronavirus crisis nadir in March 2020 

FT 13 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/637b2a59-f64d-46b6-a8a8-0072e3a936d2


‘Bearmageddon’ for stocks appears to be upon us, strategist says

 Mike O’Rourke MarketWatch 15 March 2020

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/03/bearmageddon-for-stocks-appears-to-be.html



There are two types of extraordinary economists

The first type includes pioneers of the field such as David Ricardo, William Stanley Jevons, and, in our own time, Robert Lucas. They all aimed to economize knowledge in order to explain the largest possible amount of behavior with the smallest possible number of variables.

The second category, which includes Thorstein Veblen, John Maynard Keynes, and Albert O. Hirschman, sought to broaden economic knowledge in order to understand motives and norms of behavior excluded by mainstream analysis but important in real life.

Robert Skidelsky Project Syndicate 12 November 2021

https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/veblen-keynes-hirschman-biographies-economics-outsiders-by-robert-skidelsky-2021-11


Why do economists continue to get it so wrong? Lucas


La Niña have a pronounced effect on weather in the U.S. and around the world


 The North American jet stream forms where warm and cold air meet. In North America, the winds swoop down from Alaska toward the continental U.S.

As the jet stream changes shape and location, it can have significant effects on weather, acting like a wall that keeps the region warm to the south and cold to the north.

WSJ 11 November 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/la-nina-is-coming-to-shape-winter-forecasts-what-to-know-11636666122?mod=hp_lead_pos12


The Omega-Shaped Jet Stream Responsible for Europe’s Heatwave

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-omega-shaped-jet-stream-responsible.html



2021-11-11

“None died from radiation [at Fukushima],”

I asked Grossi if the public could ever view nuclear power as “safe” after incidents such as the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan, when a tsunami overwhelmed a nuclear plant, causing a meltdown and radiation leaks.

Grossi was having none of it. “None died from radiation [at Fukushima],” the thousands of deaths that occurred were due to the tsunami and the stress of evacuation.

Gillan Tett FT 10 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/0823c7a9-ca75-4a75-96cb-e0c006ca791c


Don’t Ignore the Nuclear Option

Bloomberg 1 June 2020


Raghuram Rajan, inflation now “more than transitory.”

Raghuram Rajan, who led India’s Reserve Bank of India between 2013 and 2016, said this accommodative policy from many central banks had caused bubble-like conditions.

He added that he believed that inflation had now become “more than transitory.”

“Worst of all, is that the markets believe that central banks have their back. If things collapse they will come back again with really accommodative policy, and if that’s the case then the central banks are, in a sense, trapped by the markets.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/11/indias-raghuram-rajan-warns-rapid-rate-moves-could-fuel-wealth-shock.html


Something in all this does not add up

Raghuram G. Rajan Project Syndicate 2 August 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/08/something-in-all-this-does-not-add-up.html


Raghuram Rajan, one of the few economists to see the financial crisis coming, wins the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year award

FT 28/10/2010

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/02/rajanthe-third-pillar-how-markets-and.html



What if long-term U.S. interest rates are on a slow march to zero percent?

People often ask me: “What’s the point of owning bonds with interest rates so low?”

Cullen Roche MarketWatch 10 November 2021

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-think-the-u-s-will-get-hyperinflation-theres-a-better-chance-that-interest-rates-will-go-to-zero-11636556375


Cullen Roche author of the Pragmatic Capitalism blog, where this column first appeared.

https://www.pragcap.com/



The Inflation Numbers. The debate over whether this is transitory is over. The trimmed mean is 5.3 standard deviations above

The narrow issue of whether this inflation is in any meaningful sense “transitory” has now been settled. It isn’t. Now for the much tougher questions of how long it will last, how bad it will be, and what to do about it.

The trimmed mean is 5.3 standard deviations above its norm for the last 10 years, considerably more than the headline rate.

 “CPI excluding everything you’d like to exclude” rose last month to exceed 4% for the first time since 1991.

For the next few months, with the “transitory” debate over, one topic will dominate the debate — rents. Shelter accounts for 32.5% of the headline CPI, and to date inflation in rents has been unremarkable.

John Authers Bloomberg 11 november 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-11/it-s-official-the-inflation-numbers-are-a-hot-sticky-mess

 

Inflation Shock Tears Up Trader Playbooks From Stocks to Bitcoin

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-11/inflation-shock-tears-up-trader-playbooks-from-stocks-to-bitcoin



2021-11-10

Beijing is working on a controlled implosion of Evergrande

Some investors feared that China Evergrande Group would collapse spectacularly, triggering losses far and wide. 

Instead, the Chinese state is dismantling the giant developer slowly and behind the scenes, in what amounts to one of the biggest financial challenges Beijing has faced in years.

WSJ 10 November 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/evergrande-china-crisis-real-estate-developers-11636552507


Å ena sidan och å andra sidan

 – Det mest sannolika är att den högre inflationen är övergående. Men det går inte att utesluta att inflationen permanent kommer upp på en högre nivå, säger Lars Calmfors.

Till skillnad från på 1970-talet så behöver inte inflationen i stora länder sprida sig till resten av världen eftersom vi i dag har rörliga växelkurser, enligt Lars Calmfors.

Jens Magnusson, chefsekonom på SEB, tror att centralbankerna har effektiva vapen mot stigande inflation, och att de också kommer att använda dem om det behövs, även om det blir med en rätt stor försiktighet.

DI/TT 10 november 2021

https://www.svd.se/ekonom-liten-risk-for-galopperande-inflation/i/senaste/om/naringsliv


The rise in prices in the US government bond market is counter-intuitive

The trading climate in the $22tn US government bond market has become less hospitable, adding to choppy moves in securities that act as a foundation of the global financial system.

Liquidityhas deteriorated in recent weeks. That has added to the pressure on regulators to improve a market long viewed as a haven during times of trouble.

FT 10 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/ede12db9-0261-4c7e-8f6f-b61de57b2383


US government debt is a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941.

Niall Ferguson FT February 10 2010


China Looks a Lot Like Japan Did in the 1980s

I suspect China will avoid an all-out crisis, but economic growth will limp along at next to nothing or worse

Bloomberg 9 November 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-09/china-s-economic-model-is-probably-broken


Some of us still remember the Japanese bubble economy — or as the Japanese themselves called it, the “babaru economy” — of the late 1980s, when prices of many assets, above all commercial real estate, went completely crazy. 

Then everything crashed.

The bursting of the Japanese bubble didn’t lead to a financial meltdown. But it was followed by a prolonged period of economic weakness

Paul Krugman NYT 24 September 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/09/suppose-evergrande-isnt-another-lehman.html


Why China’s Real Estate Slowdown Isn’t Like Japan’s

Bloomberg 10 november 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-09/why-china-s-real-estate-slowdown-isn-t-like-japan-s




Jim Cramer recommends selling some stock

Investors should raise some cash that can be deployed back into the market once there’s more certainty, CNBC’s Jim Cramer advised

CNBC 9 Novenber 2021

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/cramer-backs-selling-stock-to-raise-cash-until-market-gets-clarity.html

More pain for hedge funds as leveraged investors unwind wrong-way bond market bets

 Traders were described as still stunned by the Bank of England’s Nov. 4 decision to hold off on a widely expected interest-rate hike, which earned Governor Andrew Bailey the unflattering label of “unreliable boyfriend” which was first applied to former BOE Governor Mark Carney in 2018. 

MarketWatch 9 November 2021

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751


Andrew Bailey governor Bank of England an unreliable boyfriend

John Authers Bloomberg 5 november 2021 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/andrew-bailey-governor-bank-of-england.html


Argentina and the IMF: its $57bn bailout

Fears are growing that Buenos Aires will not be able to meet a $2.8bn repayment in March

FT Big Read 10 November 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/ce0d1647-0bd7-4bb4-b787-d1301a8a3bc0


Questions may also be asked about the IMF’s record-breaking rescue package for Argentina, with which its outgoing director Christine Lagarde was closely associated.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/08/argentinas-48-stock-rout.html


2021-11-09

Moderaterna förespråkar ett starkt och fördjupat samarbete mellan suveräna europeiska nationer - EU-skvadern

Moderaternas partistyrelse tillsatte i april 2019 en programkommitté, som fick till uppgift att utarbeta ett förslag till nytt idéprogram. Programkommittén har bestått av: Christofer Fjellner, ordförande... 

Huvudsekreterare: Alice Teodorescu, 2019-2020.  Fredrik Johansson, 2020

https://moderaterna.se/sites/default/files/page_attachments/2020-11/Ett%20fo%CC%88rslag%20till%20moderat%20ide%CC%81program%20fo%CC%88r%202020-talet_1.pdf


Fredrik Johansson: Euron – för Sveriges skull

SvD 9 oktober 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/10/fredrik-johansson-euron-for-sveriges.html


EU-skvadern, om den Europeiska Unionens konstitutionella framtid

Torsdagen den 6 december skall riksdagen behandla Nicefördraget. I det har man bl a slagit fast att Sverige i det kommande större EU skall få hälften av Bulgariens inflytande. Det finns ju fler bulgarer än svenskar, så det är ju logiskt. Om man vill balkanisera EU till ett Afghanistan där olika folk gör upp om makten över varandra, alltså.

Kanske man skulle hämta andan och tänka efter? En som tänkt efter är Nils Karlson, rektor för det Timbro närstående Cityuniversitet, som Näringslivets Fond lägger ner vid årsskiftet. Han är också fil dr i statsvetenskap. Tillsammans med några med liknande bakgrund har han utgivit boken EU-skvadern, om den Europeiska Unionens konstitutionella framtid (City University Press).

Det som skiljer en stat från andra typer av organisationer är enligt honom att den är suverän.

 Den har absolut bestämmandemakt över "det offentliga", dvs i första hand rättsordningen, inom ett visst territorium." Dessutom tar stater ut skatt av sina medborgare. Denna makt upprätthålls vanligtvis med ett våldsmonopol där staten kontrollerar användandet av legitimt våld. För försvar av territoriet har stater dessutom oftast en försvarsmakt.

Federalismens utmaning är alltid att finna den rätta balansen mellan centralisering och decentralisering, att få den vertikala maktdelningen att bli stabil. Risken finns alltid att inneboende krafter i systemet leder till oavsiktlig och oönskad centralisering.

- För egen del bedömer jag, utifrån ovanstående analys, att denna risk i dag är väsentligt större än att utvecklingen skulle gå i motsatt riktning, skriver Nils Karlsson.

Den som läser noga ser här två diskreta fotnötter. Den ena hänvisar till hans doktorsavhandling där han gjort en systematisk analys av hur de mekanismer ser ut som gör att systemet leder till oavsiktlig och oönskad centralisering.

I den andra fotnoten skriver han att införandet av euron och den gemensamma penningpolitiken (den gemensamma räntan) otvivelaktigt förstärker denna risk. Krav på EU-bidrag och stöd till regioner och hela stater som drabbas av ekonomiska problem är att förvänta framöver, skriver han.

Rolf Englund i EU-krönika i Nya Wermlands-Tidningen 2001-12-05

https://www.internetional.se/emurolf.html#foljaconst


Moderaterna och EMU

http://nejtillemu.com/moderatmeny.htm

Riksdagen ägnar sig redan i stor utsträckning åt att stämpla godkänt på redan fattade beslut, en proforma-hantering utan ens illusionen av maktutövning. Den politiska klassen då? Ja, den skiktas alltmer i en högadel med EU som bas och en knapadel på nationell och lokal nivå.

FOTNOT: *En skvader är ett uppstoppat djur till hälften hare och till hälften tjäder.

Anders Isaksson i Dagens Industri 2000-12-08

http://www.nejtillemu.com/andersis.htm#skvader