Visar inlägg från augusti, 2015

Här är en som varnar för börskraschen mer än jag

John Hussman’s weekly letter provides sound advice for anyone looking to avoid a 50% loss in the next 18 months. levels on par with 1929 and 2000. The difference is that fear has been overtaking greed in the psyches of traders. The average Joe isn’t in the market. Only the Ivy League MBA High frequency trading computer gurus are playing in this rigged market. The 1,100 point crash last Monday is what happens when arrogant young traders, fear and computer algorithms combine in a perfect storm of mindless selling. Suddenly the pompous risk takers became frightened risk averse lemmings. The Stock market        

SvD: Tokyo under vatten. Det blir två spalter på sid 23

Vad är källan?  NASA. Vad vet dom om det? NEWS | August 26, 2015 NASA zeroes in on ocean rise: How much? How soon? By Steve Cole, NASA Headquarters

Ständigt denne Lucas

Rational expectations. Ha. Romer roots the sorry state of academic macroeconomics in a battle between Robert Lucas and Thomas Sargent Martin Sandbu, FT 17 Augusti 2015 For months, Paul Romer, the economics professor, has been on a crusade against what he calls “mathiness”, by which he means deliberately abstruse use of mathematics to camouflage political arguments by economists.  News För en yngre generation som inte förstår det här med den ständiga vesslan finns här en länk till Ture Sventon .

Schengen Collapse?

The renewed policy move comes after Germany said this week that it would receive 800,000 asylum applications this year, and gave warning that the EU’s asylum rules must be reformed or the border-free Schengen Area would face collapse. FT August 20, 2015 Margit Gennser om Schengen  News

Greece Extend and Pretend again "Elementary, My Dear Watson!"

Ms Merkel told ZDF television on Sunday she had “no doubts” that the IMF come on board.  She ruled out a haircut on Greek debt, but said there was “room for manoeuvre” for debt relief through loan extensions and lower interest. Financial Times 16 August 2015 Greece Extend and Pretend In  economics ,  present value , also known as  present discounted value , is the value of an expected income stream determined as of the date of valuation. "Elementary, My Dear Watson!"    Probably the most famous of Sherlock Holmes quotes, "Elementary, my dear Watson," was never spoken by Sherlock Holmes.  That is to say that Sir Arthur Conan Doyle never wrote those exact words for his fictional detective Sherlock H olmes.    However, Sherlock Holmes does say the words "elementary" and "my dear Watson" quite often. Below are a just few examples.

Greece Extend and Pretend

Avtalet om nödlån på totalt 86 miljarder euro klubbades på fredagen av parlamentet i Aten och godkändes senare av eurozonens finansministrar. Grekland skall i huvudsak använda dessa pengar för att betala räntor och amorteringar till EU och ECB. Den grekiska staten skall under den treåriga låneperioden ha ett betydande överskott i sina primära finanser. Men, läser jag i SvD,  Internationella valutafonden (IMF) sätter sig på tvären. Även om ordförande Christine Lagarde hyllar Greklands samarbetsvilja och reformerna som ingår i avtalet skräder hon inte orden när det kommer till statsskuldens långvariga effekt: – Jag står fast vid att skulden har nått ohållbara nivåer och att Grekland inte kan lösa skuldkrisen på egen hand, säger Lagarde i ett uttalande. För att Grekland ska ta sig igenom skuldkrisen krävs det därför att ”betydande skuldlättnader, i mycket större utsträckning än parterna har övervägt hittills” när det tredje stödpaketet utvärderas för första gången i höst. http:

Juncker Greece is and will irreversibly remain a member of the euro area - Peace in our time

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Romano Prodi Some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”

“I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.” – Romano Prodi, EU Commission president, December 2001 Prodi and the other leaders who forged the euro knew what they were doing. They knew a crisis would develop, as Milton Friedman and many others had predicted.  It is not conceivable that these very astute men didn’t realize that creating a monetary union without a fiscal union would bring about an existential crisis.  They accepted that eventuality as the price of European unity.  But now the payment is coming due, and it is far larger than they probably anticipated. Federalism

IMF wants debt reduction for Greece

Eager not to repeat what many see as one of myriad mistakes it and others made in Greece,  IMF staff have for months insisted that the rescue has to include not just a series of difficult reforms by Athens,  but also what in countries such as Germany would be a politically awkward agreement to help reduce  the burden of Greece’s more than €300bn sovereign debt pile,  most of which is now owed to other eurozone governments and taxpayers.

Riksbanken förlorar på sjunkande guldpris. Tomas Fischer kritiserade redan 2007

Priset på guld fortsätter falla snabbt. För Riksbanken som håller en guldreserv på nästan 126 ton guld svider prisslakten på den ädla metallen. 15 miljarder kronor är borta sedan 2011, och raset kan fortsätta. SvD Näringsliv 13 augusti 2015 Tidigare har även finansmannen Tomas Fischer kritiserat Riksbanken för utförsäljningen av guldreserven. DI 2009-01-07   Senaste nytt hos Rolf Englund blog, IntCom och nejtillemu

Alan Greenspan: the 2008 crisis. I knew something was brewing, but I missed the actual date as frankly did everybody else.

Telegraph 10 August 2015 Who Predicted The Global Financial Crisis? Michael J. Panzner, Financial Armageddon The first major effort to identify those that publicly predicted the crisis was a paper titled "No One Saw This Coming": Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models by Dirk Bezemer.  Bezemer identified 12 individuals (academics, government advisers, consultants, investors, stock market commentators and one graduate student) that between 2000 and 2006 warned specifically about a housing led recession within years.  "Together they belie the notion that ’no one saw this coming’, or that those who did were either professional doomsayers or lucky guessers."  The Bezemer 12 are Dean Baker Wynne Godley Fred Harrison (UK) Michael Hudson Eric Janszen Steve Keen (Australia) Jakob Madsen & Jens Kjaer Sørensen (Denmark) Kurt Richebächer Nouriel Roubini Peter Schiff Robert

Stelzenmüller: Fiscal and economic union, at least for the eurozone.

The battle over the third Greek bailout has provided a moment of terrifying clarity.  The crisis is not just about the right level of sales taxes on islands in the Aegean, Germans’ capacity for empathy, or even the future of the euro. It is about the future of European integration itself — and of German leadership in Europe. Fiscal and economic union, at least for the eurozone.  The quid pro quo will be structural reforms and responsible budget policies, to reassure Germany, the Nordics, the Netherlands and eastern Europe. In return, France and the southern Europeans should have their wish of debt mutualisation, solidarity and stimulus. Europe also needs an immigration policy. Given its dire demographics, the continent ought to be grateful for refugees. They are tomorrow’s workforce. Constanze Stelzenmüller,  FT August 10, 2015  The writer is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Full text "ever closer union" - The United States of Europe

Syntesen av Hayek, Friedman och Keynes, mitt storhetsvansinniga och föga framgångsrika projekt

År 2005 tog jag mig före att genomföra detta storhetsvansinniga projekt. Det har inte varit särskilt framgångsrikt och det har inte mötts med hejarop utan med förmodligen välgrundade tvivel av den enda person som kommenterat mitt inlägg. Sedan kom finanskrisen och eurokrisen och det hela föll i glömska. Men häromdagen fick jag ny inspiration när jag läste en artikel i Financial Times av Noah Smith, Bloomberg 5 August 2015. Han skrev att den österrikiska skolan inser att "productive capital come in multiple forms, while mainstream macro usually assumes that all forms of capital are interchangeable". Aha, tänkte jag, penningmängden är inte som vatten i en pool, utan i hinkar eller vattenkannor, som flödar över olika ställen av ekonomin. Jag har länge varit inne på tankegångar av detta slag. - Bättre då att Fed köper statspapper i stället för bostadsobligationer.