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De ledande amerikanska indexen stängde på rött under måndagen när förhoppningarna om ett avtal för att avsluta det nästan sex månader långa kriget i Mellanöstern dämpats och oljepriset fått fart uppåt. https://www.di.se/live/techjattar-stretade-emot-pa-rott-wall-street/   Sargassohavet, The Sargasso Sea; a model for global markets  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/sargassohavet-sargasso-sea-model-for.html Central Banks; By becoming market makers of last resort, policymakers are pumping up leverage and risk. Leverage 100 times. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/central-banks-by-becoming-market-makers.html Knut Wicksell aktuell igen. r*  Styr centralbankers penningpolitik globalt.      https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/nu-ar-nationalekonomen-knut-wicksell.html Maga Europe Trump’s new right sees the continent as both ancestral home and ideological battleground. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/why-maga-came-for-europe.html Sto...

  Tehran’s demands for a full reopening of Hormuz include the US lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports, the release of frozen assets and compensation for war damages. It has also called for a permanent end to attacks on groups it backs in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Gaza. “I am likewise demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts,” Trump wrote on social media.  “Additionally, compensation should be paid to the families of the hundreds of thousands of innocent protestors that Iran has killed over the last 50 years.” Shortly after his post, Trump added that Iran should also be held responsible for deaths and damage from conflicts in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza, where Tehran-backed militant groups operate. Bloomberg 11 August 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-11/trump-hardens-stance-iran-clouding-hopes-hormuz-deal Stockholmsbörsen går mot en avvaktande öppni...

Iran's new regime is very different. When US President Donald Trump signed a ceasefire agreement with Iran during dinner at the Palace of Versailles last month. The 1919 treaty reshaped Europe, but its demands for huge reparations left an angry and embittered Germany and helped to set the stage for another global conflagration just 20 years later. Spegelsalen i Versailles den 18 januari 1871, när Vilhelm I utropas till tysk kejsare efter segern i fransk-tyska kriget. Dumt nog hade Napoleon III förklarat krig och förlorat. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/spegelsalen-i-versailles-den-18-januari.html Might the Iran deal, different in so many ways, nevertheless come to be seen as similarly fateful? The US and Israel may have sent many of the country's former leaders to early graves, but have they been replaced by even more formidable foes? Two key figures, the parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the commander-in-chief of the Revolutiona...

USA-börserna väntas inleda torsdagen med uppgångar. Jobbrapporten för juli visade på färre nya jobb  DI 2 juli 2026   https://www.di.se/live/klart-farre-nya-jobb-an-vantat-i-usa-Wpvy7/ Återigen sålde investerare av teknikaktier. Investerare oroas över teknikaktiers utsikter efter de stora uppgångarna tidigare i år, med tvivel kring om AI-investeringarna kommer att löna sig.  Oron driver kraftiga svängningar när handlare växelvis minskar riskerna och köper i dippar, skriver Bloomberg. https://www.di.se/live/blandat-pa-wall-street-teknikaktier-foll/ Börsen stänger upp – Saab rusade Nato planerar att ersätta sin flotta av Awacs-plan med Global Eye-övervakningsplan från Saab.  https://www.di.se/live/borsen-stanger-upp-saab-rusade/ Hur länge kan festen fortsätta? ”Ett bra tag till”, svarar Handelsbanken Global Digitals förvaltare Niklas Lundin samtidigt som han pekar ut en tydlig säljsignal.  I det stora hela ser han de senaste dagarnas nedgångar i sektorn som e...

Yen Hits 40-Year Low The BOJ lifted its benchmark interest rate on June 16 to 1%, the highest since 1995. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/japan.html Tre av landets tyngsta strateger tror att uppgången kan fortsätta https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/tre-av-landets-tyngsta-strateger-tror.html Vandenberg and the Berlin Airlift https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/vandenberg-and-berlin-airlift.html Iran Is Winning the Battle of Hormuz Tehran is using force to gain control over traffic through the Strait . The Editorial Board Wall Street Journal 28 June 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/8-april-vapenvila.html Who Cares? Breda uppgångar på Wall Street – Space X i täten Fem av sju aktier inom ”Magnificent Seven” uppåt. Meta Platforms, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla och Apple steg 1,3–8,5 procent.  Microsoft och Apple var ned 1,2 procent respektive 0,7 procent. https://www.di.se/live/breda-uppgangar-pa-wall-street-space-x-i-taten/ Investerare tycks välj...

  Omani officials said they will always abide by international maritime law, but added there could be fees for services related to de-polluting the strait or helping ships navigate it. The US, Europe and Oman's Gulf Arab neighbors are increasingly concerned that Oman will set up a tolling or fee system with Iran for the Strait of Hormuz. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/oman-tells-allies-ships-going-through-hormuz-may-have-to-pay

A European-led mission may soon set sail, with Germany poised to play a central role. Deutsche Welle 19 June 2026 https://www.dw.com/en/why-germanys-navy-could-be-crucial-for-the-strait-of-hormuz/video-77631739

The world may not like Trump’s Gaza plan — but there is no alternative. If even I, an implacable opponent of the president, can accept this as the best option, then surely others can too? There is no alternative framework waiting in the wings. No rival coalition is quietly preparing a more viable proposal.  The 20-point plan is not the one many of us would have drafted, but it remains the only framework backed by sufficient leverage, political engagement and potential resources to move the parties towards implementation.  It has been reinforced through a UN Security Council resolution and further advanced by the roadmap from Nickolay Mladenov and the Board of Peace (which seeks to link reconstruction and governance transition to the dismantling of Hamas’s military infrastructure and longer-term stabilisation in Gaza). Without such a plan, the crisis in Gaza will only deteriorate, with Hamas retaining both political and practical influence over a devastated population. Hillary ...

Critics of JD Vance think that his key role in the Iran negotiations may end up being an albatross around his neck.  (“If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD,” President Trump said in France this week.) But in our conversation, the vice president seemed buoyant and eager to play the salesman, insisting that the deal is better than the pact President Barack Obama sealed in 2015. I asked him about his initial opposition to the war, his conflict with the pope and whether his political future is riding on the success of the Iran agreement. We also discussed Vance’s new book, “Communion,” Douthat: So let’s start with the most basic question. What is in this deal that is good for America and good for the world that we couldn’t have gotten without three months of military conflict? The Obama-Iran nuclear deal allowed them to generate a stockpile of enriched uranium. Our deal ensures that stockpile is destroyed and eliminated, so that’s a very, very big difference, a very important di...

  Regeringen gav Folkhälsomyndigheten i uppdrag att lyfta ”existentiell hälsa”. Nu uttalar sig socialminister Jakob Forssmed (KD) efter Aftonbladets granskning . – Det här är grundläggande för att en människa ska fungera. Syftet var att se om vi kan inkorporera mer av arbetet för att ge utrymme för den här typen av frågor i folkhälsoarbetet, inte nödvändigtvis i sjukvården men i det breda folkhälsoarbetet. Enligt Aftonbladets uppgifter ska den tidigare generaldirektören Karin Tegmark Wisell varit skeptisk till uppdraget – och kort därefter fått sparken. https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/8pEeEA/forssmed-om-existentiell-halsa-viktig-dimension Tove Lifvendahl: Ulf Kristersson och Birgitta Ed  Aftonbladets reporter Lisa Röstlund har gjort en granskning som publicerats i flera delar av den stiftelseverksamhet som statsministerns hustru Birgitta Ed grundade ihop med vännen Göran Thorstenson 2024.  Verksamheten, som är inriktad på andliga retreats med kristna värderingar som...

Många påpekar att avtalet, egentligen bara ett memorandum, är oklart och att man inte riktigt vet vart det bär. Det blev inte Unconditional surrender, som med Tyskland och Japan efter VK2. Då måste en överenskommelse vara sådan att båda sidor gentemot sina uppdragsgivare kan hävda att det är en framgång. Trump måste övertyga väljarna och media. Irans ledare, vilka de nu är, måste ävertyga det Revolutionära Gardet.  Väljarna i USA, liksom väljarna i Sverige, är bekymrade över bensinpriset. De islamistiska gardisterna slår vakt om islamismen som styrelseform. Kriget har  visat att Irans krigsmakt var betydligt starkare och mer välutrustad än vad många hade trott.  Men det visar väl att faran från Iran var större än vad många hade trott. US and Iran Prepare for Deal Signing With Both Claiming Victory Bloomberg 16 juni 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/us-and-iran-prepare-for-deal-signing-with-both-claiming-victory 15 juni. Avtal öppnar Hormuz. https://e...

In the movie Margin Call, Jeremy Irons plays an investment bank CEO on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis who insists his only job is to figure out where the market is headed next.  When he resolves to dump the firm’s mortgage-backed securities, he bangs the table and yells, “This is it! I’m telling you, THIS IS IT!” I started my career as a geopolitical analyst in 2010 at George Friedman’s Stratfor, where my first assignment as a lowly intern was a red-team analysis of what would happen if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to a US/Israeli attack.  The closure would have been it.  Yet we never got to the point where George called us into the office at 3 am and banged on a table, precisely because geopolitical analysis demonstrated that Iran’s asymmetric leverage in blocking passage of oil through the Strait was sufficient to ward off any incursion. If you could go back and tell that intern the Strait of Hormuz had now been closed for three months and counting...

Börsen bröt röda sviten Stängde nära dagshögsta efter nya Iranbesked från Donald Trump. “Buy the rumour, sell the news”  Strategies Behind 'Buy the Rumor, Sell the News' https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/news-trader.asp Nya rekordlyft på Wall Street:  ”Entusiasmen är berättigad” Så länge vinsterna växer kan aktiekurserna fortsätta att stiga”,  säger Emily Bowersock Hill  https://www.di.se/live/nya-rekordlyft-pa-wall-street-entusiasmen-ar-berattigad/ Ursula von der Leyen över 170 miljarder kronor i EU-stöd till Ungern  Pengarna har varit frysta på grund av EU-oro över korruptionen och hur Ungern levt upp till rättsstatens principer.   Sedan Péter Magyar efter parlamentsvalet i april tagit över som premiärminister efter Viktor Orbán är dock en lösning på gång. https://www.di.se/nyheter/eu-lovar-miljarder-till-ungern/ Iran will not surrender its stockpile of enriched uranium, a key demand from the US in negotiations to end the war. The US wants Tehran to gi...