Visar inlägg från januari, 2021

I dagens SvD-podd diskuteras Westerbergs avhandling -Socialists at the Gate /Timbro

PJ Anders Linder, som medverkar i podden tillsammans med Westerberg och ledarsidans Fredrik Johansson, menar att det berodde mycket på Socialdemokraternas oerhört radikala förslag.  Löntagarfonderna skulle, fullt förverkligade, ha förvandlat Sverige till ett slags Jugoslavien, helt utan fri företagsamhet. Socialists at the Gate /Timbro och dess föregångare/ Swedish Business and the Defense of Free Enterprise, 1940–1985  Rikard Westerberg

Bubble Warnings Everywhere Just Keep Getting Louder


I Sverige ökade penningmängden med 616 miljarder kronor eller nästan 17 procent under 2020.

 Inflation är alltid och överallt ett monetärt fenomen Cervenka DI 28 jan 2021

UK has insisted that the EU’s ambassador should be seen as representing an “international organisation”, rather than a national ambassador

  FT 28 January 2021 The EU official said he UK “would treat the European Union delegation in worse terms than any other country on the planet”. Euron och Schengen var välbetänkt Varför har den Europeiska Unionen infört Euron och Schengen fastän det stod klart för de flesta att detta var högriskprojekt ?Jo, därför att de romantiska utopisterna vill skapa en riktig Union, som USA.

A toxic mix of complacency, excessive risk-taking and market exuberance in financial markets is raising risks of a market correction, the International Monetary Fund

Underlying their risky bets, investors seem uniform in their belief that interest rates are going to be low as far as the eye can see. “A sense of complacency appears to be permeating markets,” said Tobias Adrian, the director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, in a blog post accompanying the international agency’s latest Global Financial Stability report.

We are wary of making the fashionable “this crazy bubble will burst soon” call.

Sure, we recently reduced our exposure to the bubblier parts of the global equity market, such as the US, but we have not moved wholesale to an underweight rating.  We’ve stopped dancing, we are standing closer to the door, but we haven’t left the party yet. Robert Buckland  chief global equity strategist at Citigroup  27 January 2021

Equity rallies can run and run before a reckoning, killing careers of sceptical investors

Japan in the late 1980s; Nasdaq/S&P in the late 1990s; emerging markets in 2007.  On average, the associated equity indices almost tripled in the three years up to the peak and then at least halved in the two years afterwards.  Fund managers who didn’t own them got fired on the way up.  Those that did own them got fired on the way down. Robert Buckland FT 27 January 2021 The writer is chief global equity strategist at Citigroup

GameStop at Wall Street

It seems like gambling has been going on in the market. Everyone is shocked. Like the Police Chief in Casablanca. ------ Hedge funds retreat in face of day-trader onslaugh FT 28 January 2021 GameStop mania explained:  How the Reddit retail trading crowd ran over Wall Street pros How GameStop’s surge recalls ghosts of past trading catastrophes Reddit’s army of ‘degenerates’ challenges the financial establishment FT 28 January 2021 inte bara en taktik för att tjäna pengar på optionskontrakt. Minst lika viktigt är att hedgefonderna ska förlora enorma mängder pengar

Top Merkel aide under fire after call for debt limit to be suspended

At issue is the debt brake, a measure enshrined in the German constitution, which limits the country’s budget deficit to just 0.35 per cent of gross domestic product. CDU politicians insisted that the debt brake must be reintroduced, as planned, in 2022.  “We must return to sound budgets as soon as possible after the pandemic,” said Mr Ziemiak. “It’s only fair to future generations.” FT 26 January 2021

Tech bulls argue that things are different to the dotcom days

“Every ladder is leaning against the same wall — interest rates and quantitative easing,” said Plaisance’s Mr Kozlowski. “If interest rates rise, there will be a real reckoning.” FT 27 January 2021

The EU official saidt he UK “would treat the European Union delegation in worse terms than any other country on the planet”.

The EU official tasked with overseeing the post-Brexit deal with the UK, Maros Sefcovic,  told the Financial Times that the snub /London’s refusal to grant its ambassador full diplomatic status/ was “very important politically” and meant the UK “would treat the European Union delegation in worse terms than any other country on the planet”. FT 26 January 2021 Vad är det som har en flagga, en nationaldag, en nationalsång, en militärstyrka, ett parlament och en högsta domstol. En stat, naturligtvis. Vad är det mer en stat har? Jo, en valuta. Det är därför Europas ledande politiker har infört euron.  För att vara med om att rita om Europas karta, skapa ett nytt imperium, i Habsburgs efterföljd, som kan utmana USA, som vänstern hatar och högern föraktar.  Rolf Englund Internet 20/1 2003

”taper tantrum”

En orsak är det outtalade löftet att se till att hålla finansieringskostnaderna för den växande statsskulden låga, vilket är en förutsättning för att finanspolitiken kan göras så pass expansiv. Victor Munkhammar DI 25 januari 2021

Investor anxiety mounts over prospect of stock market ‘bubble

Screaming stock rallies and wild speculation by have-a-go amateur investors are stirring concerns among market veterans over a bubble to rival anything seen in the past century. FT 25 January 2021

The Economy of Spain: World's Greatest Bubble?

China’s co-operation is crucial to the future at a time when climate change threatens the livelihood of all humanity.

 Bill Clinton Trade deficit FT 20 January 2021

In January 2008, as the subprime crisis unfolded, Davos buzzed with confidence

Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute for International Economics: “It is inconceivable — repeat, inconceivable — to get a world recession.”  To be fair, the forum’s 54-page Global Risks Report did include two paragraphs on subprime mortgages. Simon Kuper FT 21 January 2021

Warnings that rising deficits will reignite inflation and undermine the dollar have proved wrong for decades, so deficit hawks are increasingly easy to mock as crotchety old scolds.

The new view, expressed by leading figures from the IMF, academia and media, is that with inflation long dead and interest rates at record lows, it would be unwise, even irresponsible, not to borrow to boost the economy. The amounts — billions, trillions — hardly matter, especially not for the US, which still has the world’s most coveted currency.  Increasingly, the money printed by central banks goes to finance government debts. Many elites see this as fine Instead of a path to freedom, low rates are a trap. They encourage more borrowing and rising debt, which drags productivity lower and slows growth. That makes the economy financially fragile, forcing central banks to keep rates low. Given today’s very high levels of debt, only a small increase in interest rates would make the debt burden unsustainable. The writer, Ruchir Sharma, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s chief global strategist, is author of ‘Ten Rules of Successful Nations’ FT 20 January 2021

Joe Biden ushers in the Keynesian inflation era of the 2020s

My conclusion: the Federal Reserve will be on the warpath much earlier than widely assumed; dollar bears will be disappointed again; and Wall Street faces a cold douche, a sharp correction before the long bull market of the Roaring Twenties gets going Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph

I dag 31 december 2020 lämnar Storbritannien EU. Men ändå är det besynnerligt tyst om Nigel Farage, grundare av UKIP, UK Independence Party.

Jag har en gång varit i samma rum som Farage. Margit Gennser, senare ordförande för Medborgare mot EMU, den borgerliga kampanjorganisationen inför folkomröstningen 2003, hade via sina kontakter skickat mig till London för att delta i ett möte i en kyrksal. Jag förväntades på tre minuter sända en hälsning från Sverige. Jag och några andra skulle vara som ett förband innan rockstjärnan skulle göra sin entré. Nigel Farage var rockstjärnan. Jag hade då mycket dimmiga begrepp om honom och lyssnade med skräckblandad förtjusning på hans budskap. Min insats var således mycket begränsad, men det uppvägs av att kyrkan, som kyrksalen hörde till, var Westminster Abbey. Rolf Englund FB 31 december 2020 Do I regret supporting Trump? Nigel Farage Youtube 20 January 2021

global stock-market rally — profits are flat since 2008

The global stock market has nearly doubled since 2008 because the multiple paid for unchanged profits has nearly doubled

“As with frogs in water that is slowly being heated to a boil, investors are being conditioned not to recognise the danger.”

Seth Klarman, the founder of hedge fund Baupost Group, has told clients central bank policies and government stimulus have convinced investors that risk “has simply vanished”, leaving the market unable to fulfil its role as a price discovery mechanism.   “With so much stimulus being deployed, trying to figure out if the economy is in recession is like trying to assess if you had a fever after you just took a large dose of aspirin,” he wrote.  FT 21 January 2021

Frontex, The European bloc’s first uniformed armed force

Frontex is an important milestone in the bloc’s efforts to create functioning institutions that can implement its security and foreign policy objectives. The US, some European officials like to point out, had a coastguard before it had its own navy. Critics, by contrast, see Frontex as the spearhead of a militaristic “Fortress Europe” strategy The camera lingers first on the EU’s circle of stars insignia and then shifts to a close-up of the officer’s side cap, styled similarly to those used in the US military and French police. The man salutes in front of a logo for the armed force he represents: the Frontex European Border and Coast Guard. FT 20 January 2021 Europeiska byrån för förvaltningen av det operativa samarbetet  vid Europeiska unionens yttre gränser (FRONTEX)

10.3m users had their electricity abruptly shut off in Mexico City

Cutting off users was necessary to avoid pulling the plug on the entire national grid. The culprit was renewable energy. Because renewable power is intermittent — sunshine and wind are not constant — and must be backed up by other sources, it puts strain on the system.  FT 20 January 2021 Why renewables can’t save the planet Michael Shellenberger TEDxDanubia

ECB is buying even more Italian bonds than ever before.

Through its public sector purchase program (PSPP) and pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) it purchased €165 billion of Italian bonds in the first eleven months of 2020,  bringing its total holdings to €529 billion.  Then, of course, there are the banks.

Government-aided rebound would come in stark contrast to what happened during the 2007 to 2009 recession.

Back then, Congress’s biggest package to counter the fallout of the downturn was the $800 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, passed in 2009.  At the time, concern over the deficit helped to stem more aggressive fiscal policy responses. But economic thinking has undergone a sea change since then. New York Times 18 January 2021   Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken. Rolf Englund blogg 5 december 2009

Biden, Parisavtalet och Ingela Thalén

USA återansluter sig till Parisavtalet  ”Den symboliska betydelsen kan inte överskattas”.  Visserligen påtar sig de deltagande länderna att verka för att hålla den globala uppvärmningen väl under 2 grader, men det finns inga sanktioner Även under Trump har koldioxidutsläppen minskat. Det visar att det till stor del är marknadskrafterna som driver på omställningen. Kol har fasats ut med ganska stor kraft eftersom det är för dyrt. Ingela Thalén ”Det är ett löfte att det är en målsättning som vi lovar att ha som mål att arbeta för.”én As a result of last year’s shock, the US is likely to exceed its 2020 targets under the Copenhagen accord to cut emissions by 17 per cent from 2005 levels

Why Greece's Economy Never Recovered? (2020)

Greece’s GDP was still 25% below its pre-crisis peak, with unemployment above 20% for most of the last decade. Greece’s no show recovery is unparalleled in modern history. Even amongst the most severe Depressions.  Five years after the Great Depression US GDP per capita had risen by 35%, likewise after Argentina’s 2002 crisis it was up by 45%.

FN-rapporten visar att den globala uppvärmningen blir ungefär 3,2 grader

Den uppvärmning som anses möjlig att hantera för vår civilisation är högst 2 grader – eller helst 1,5 grader – enligt FN:s klimatpanel IPCC. /men det är/ i slutet av detta århundrade jämfört med förindustriell nivå, om länderna håller sig till sina nuvarande klimatlöften.  SvT 18 januari 2021 Kommentar RE: Den intressanta tidpunkten är om och när vi når den punkt när detta inte längre går att förhindra.

Over the last year there has been a veritable explosion of the money supply.

In the US, M2 has surged by 24pc. In the UK, M4 has increased by 12.8pc. And in the eurozone M3 has grown by 11pc. The current monetary expansion shows itself in large increases in the bank deposits of households. Once they are in a position to spend this money, they are most assuredly going to do so. There is no inevitable direct link between the money supply and inflation. Normally, the link operates through aggregate demand.  Just as the monetary authorities can stoke the inflationary fires so they can also dowse them. But will they? That is a subject for another day. Roger Bootle Telegraph 17 January 2021

Från höjdpunkten 1965-66 till 1967-68

Från rekordåren till dåråren. Hamngatan 1966 Göran Häggs bok Välfärdsåren. Svensk historia 1945-1986.

What was the best-performing asset class in 2020? US inflation-linked bonds

 If you think “tech stocks” or “bitcoin”, think again. Instead, as the Bridgewater hedge fund recently wrote to its clients, “among the more interesting and least recognised outcomes” of 2020 was that US inflation-linked bonds beat other assets by delivering a 35 per cent return, on a risk-adjusted basis, as investors hedged against inflation risks. In recent years, most investment portfolios have been constructed on the assumption that interest rates and inflation will stay low indefinitely. “there could be a taper tantrum”, adds Mr Dudley, referring to the 2013 market swings that occurred when Ben Bernanke, then Fed chair, gave the mildest of hints that the central bank might cut, or taper, its QE programme Gillian Tett FT 14 January 2021

Simon Kuper - en av mina Gurus

  Biden’s administration will include many veterans of 2008. But the world and the US of 2008 no longer exist. Simon Kuper är en lysande skribent hos Financial Times Hans senaste opus handlar om så skilda ting som Lenin, Alexander Kerensky, Viktor Orban, Modern Monetary Theory och Joe Biden. We will eventually get to net-zero emissions. Solar and wind energy, as well as storage batteries, keep getting cheaper.  We just won’t get there in time to prevent ruinous climate change. His page at FT

Biden’s administration will include many veterans of 2008. But the world and the US of 2008 no longer exist’. Simon Cooper

Biden, 78, needs a playbook for a new age. Here are just a few of the dizzying, distressing, interconnected changes of the past 12 years FT 14 January 2021

Market measures of inflation expectations have drifted higher.

The 10-year break-even rate, derived from prices of US inflation-protected government securities, now sits above 2 per cent for the first time since late 2018. FT 13 January 2021

Fortfarande dröjer sig obesvarade frågor om militära transporter på Estonia

På den svenska sidan hade tulltjänstemännen fått order uppifrån om att släppa igenom transporter från Försvarsmakten utan kontroller när Estonia kom in till kaj i Stockholm, enligt ett hemligt avtal mellan Försvarsmakten och Tullverket. Senare kom det fram att avtalet skrevs under redan i februari 1992 och hade varit i kraft i 30 månader när Estonia förliste. Tullverkets generaldirektör Ulf Larsson bekräftade i TV 4 Nyheterna att rörde det sig om ”tullklarering av särskild materiel” och att det hade pågått militära leveranser på fartyget under en längre tid. Jonas Gummesson SvD 9 januari 2021 Konstigt att han inte nämndes vid namn han som  var statsminister när det beslöts att förtullning skulle ske i särskild ordning... Nämn ej hans namn, nämn ej hans ätt, gör kronan på hans hjässa lätt.

Earth’s Margin for Error Narrows

European scientists concluded 2020 matched 2016 as the world’s hottest on record.  Global temperatures are now just 0.25 degrees Celsius shy of limits set by the Paris climate accord High temperatures in Siberia threaten to unlock methane deposits from melting permafrost, potentially unleashing runaway climate reactions prompted by higher greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.   The Copernicus models combine data from scientists in the U.K., France, Germany, Italy and the U.S. Nice, sort of, map.

Investors borrowed a record $722.1 billion against their investment portfolios through November

A strong indicator of stock-market euphoria flashed red last month.

Who’s Afraid of MMT? by James K. Galbraith - Project Syndicate

It is not surprising that current and retired central bankers feel threatened by Modern Monetary Theory. With deep roots in the Keynesian tradition and a consistent commitment to achieving full employment, MMT shows that good economics and sound policy doesn't have to be shrouded in obscurantist cant. Two fresh cases are Raghuram G. Rajan , a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, and Mervyn King, a former governor of the BOE.

The U.S. trade deficit hit a 14-year high in November $68 bn

That was the highest deficit since August 2006, and the goods deficit was the highest on record. Wall Street Journal 7 January 2021 US trade deficit in August was widest in 14 years The US trade deficit rose to $67bn

Johan Rockström, professor i global miljövetenskap, i en dramatiserad föreläsning från Dramaten i samarbete med Nobel Prize Museum.

Hur kommer våra barns och barnbarns planet se ut?  Vad kan vi göra i dag för att undvika de värsta katastroferna och finns det ett ljus i tunneln till en hållbar och attraktiv värld? Filmaren Damon Gameau drivs av en oro för vilken värld hans fyraåriga dotter ska växa upp i.  Är en ljusare framtid överhuvudtaget möjlig för klimatet, miljön och människorna? Han reser runt jordklotet för att hitta de bästa exemplen och mest innovativa lösningarna som eldsjälar har skapat, och som finns redan idag.

A buyer requires a seller there can be no “sidelines

For every buyer, there  must  be someone willing to sell. As noted by Clifford Asness: “There are no sidelines. Those saying this seem to envision a seller of stocks moving money to cash and awaiting a chance to return. But they always ignore that this seller sold to somebody, who presumably moved a precisely equal amount of cash off the sidelines.” Every transaction in the market requires both a buyer and a seller, with the only differentiating factor being at what  price  the transaction occurs. Since this is necessary for there to be equilibrium in the markets, there can be no “sidelines.”  MarketWatch 5 January 2021

Det stämmer helt enkelt inte att vi bara har fem år på oss att möta katastrofen. Tvärtom blir Sverige och världen bättre för varje år som går

Deras /Miljöpartiets/ syfte är förstås att bana väg för en mer radikal klimatpolitik. Problemet är att en radikal klimatpolitik nästan jämt mynnar ut i långtgående socialistiska åtgärder som undergräver den tillväxt som är avgörande i kampen mot utsläppen.  För egen del är jag övertygad om att svaret behöver vara mer tillväxt  Benjamin Dousa vd för Timbro SvD 3 januari 2021

Vi behöver inte längre fantisera om klimatförändringarna – de är märkbara här och nu. Men... Peter Englund

Men det är alls inte för sent. ”The future we choose”. Författarna är Christiana Figueres och Tom Rivett-Carnac. De två skyggar inte för det apokalyptiska, men deras budskap är att katastrofen är fullt möjlig att undvika, bara vi handlar, nu. Lösningen finns ej i marknaden allena, men det finns ingen lösning utan marknaden. Lösningen finns ej enbart i teknologin, men det finns ingen  lösning utan teknologin. Peter Englund DN 26 december 2020 We will eventually get to net-zero emissions. Solar and wind energy, as well as storage batteries, keep getting cheaper.  We just won’t get there in time to prevent ruinous climate change. Simon Kuper FT 12 November 2020

Global warming. Never has so much been promised by so many governments, businesses and financial institutions.

This splurge of commitments to tackle climate change is welcome, but it risks being confused with something it is not: action to cut emissions at the scale and pace needed to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris climate accord. Financial Times editorial 30 December 2020 Greta hade inte kunnat säga det bättre.