Englund

 Never Have Stocks Owed So Much to So Few It’s a Churchillian moment as the market narrows with each new record. Market breadth has never been this narrow, and yet the domination by a handful of stocks continues to intensify. Half of Tuesday’s rise in the Nasdaq was attributable to four chipmaking companies — Micron., Sandisk, Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia Corp. Getting back to Churchill, it’s worth listening to the audio of his speeches from 1940, when he was new to the job and defeat looked very likely. They’re familiar but still extraordinary. Listen to “Blood, toil, tears and sweat,”  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80_HXIHa724 “We will fight them on the beaches,”  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_LncVnecLA and “Their finest hour.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jjhxeHIjvU In contemporary parlance, he held barely any cards, but nobody ever talked a better fight. John Authers Bloomberg September 23, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-09-23/s...

Riksbankschefen Erik Thedéen: ”Frankrike är ett väldigt tydligt och varnande exempel på vad som händer om politikerna inte sköter sig, utan har mycket stora underskott som späs på ytterligare när räntekostnaderna stiger kraftigt.  Om Frankrike leder till en eurokris eller en fransk kris återstår att se, men det är helt uppenbart att det här är en toxisk kombination av från början ganska dämpad tillväxt”, säger han. DI 24 september 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/thedeen-finns-tre-jokrar-i-ranteleken/ Frankrikes växande statsskuld, skenande räntekostnader och populistiska politiker kan bli startskottet för en ny eurokris, varnar Länsförsäkringar i en ny konjunkturrapport. ”Alla pratar om USA:s långränteuppgång, men titta på den franska tioåringen – den lutar ännu brantare uppåt och skulle kunna tända en ny eurokris. Även Storbritannien har liknande superproblem som USA”, säger Länsförsäkringars chefsekonom Alexandra Stråberg. ”Behöver Europa lösa ut Frankrike som man gjorde med Grekl...

A biopic about Charles de Gaulle has been a hit in France, with more than 5.5 million viewers, perhaps because his insistence on independence seems prophetic in the current European context. De Gaulle's life contrasts with the irresponsibility in French politics today, where politicians delay and deny needed changes, and pass on risk, with the country's debt being 118% of its gross domestic product. France's politicians are evading their duty to face facts, with examples including Jean-Luc Melenchon's proposal to "chuck" part of the country's debt "in the fire" and Marine Le Pen's plan to lower the retirement age, which would hurt the country's solvency. A lengthy, two-part biopic of a mid-century politician would be an unlikely hit in most countries. But not, apparently, if the politician is Charles de Gaulle and the country is France.  The films based on Julian Jackson’s 2018 biography of the general - A Certain Idea of France by Julian...

State of the Union (SOTEU) 2026 The State of the Union (SOTEU) address is an annual speech by the President of the European Commission to the European Parliament, setting the priorities for the Union for the year ahead. In this world, Europe has chosen to forge its own path. And a stronger, independent Europe is now emerging. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/state-union_en State of The Union Rolf Englund, Internet 20/1 2003 https://www.internetional.se/stateoftheunion.htm Visst förstår vi EMU-motståndare att det behövs en politisk union, ett Europas Förenta Stater, om en gemensam valuta skall ha en chans att överleva. Men vi vill inte ha ett Europas Förenta Stater, i vart fall inte utan att Europas stater redan har blivit mer förenade än vad de är i dag och framförallt inte innan de europeiska folken har givit sina ledare ett mycket klart mandat att övergå från nationalstater till en union. Att uppge rikets suveränitet är en stor fråga. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com...

Many countries now spend more on debt servicing than defence, including the US, France and the UK. That number is set to rise in the coming years. “These massive sovereign debts are having to get refinanced at ever-increasing rates,”   The summer rout in the global bond market has only augmented the post-Covid surge in yields triggered by inflation shocks, increased government borrowing and the end of central banks’ “quantitative easing” bond-buying programmes. In UK and France,and in many others across the world, politicians face a fundamental choice on whether to raise taxes or shrink the state to get themselves out of the corner they find themselves in.  The sheer scale of debt-servicing costs also makes it supremely difficult for countries to raise spending for strategic priorities such as national defence and energy security.  Financial Times 8 September 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/4f28ef6c-f727-4d36-88a3-bbdbd13ddfbf?syn-25a6b1a6=1 RE: Mer bekymer med föret...

  Jean-Luc Melenchon France, Europe’s No. 2 economy, troubles are feeding voters’ populist turn.  Political risk linked to the decent chance of the hard-right Marine Le Pen becoming president.  Melenchon’s polling a close second to Le Pen shows French voters are very much tempted by the idea of bailing themselves out to avoid confronting the country’s profligate social spending and pension outlays. Nominal growth in gross domestic product falling off a cliff and bond yields climbing to their highest level since 2008. Central bankers mustn’t confuse the inflation seen in America’s AI-boom economy with that of France and Germany, where yearly growth is expected at below 1%. These will add to an already fearsome challenge for the ECB’s officials. Should they stick doggedly to their inflation-busting mandate, even if it nudges France ever closer to crisis and gives Melenchon’s brand of recklessness even broader support? Bloomberg 8 September 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opi...

A conspiracy of silence about climate change has spread through Europe’s political classes  Its consequences are becoming unavoidable for hundreds of millions of voters. Politicians who ignore the manifest fact of increasingly common climate disasters won’t look smart, they’ll look out of touch. President Emmanuel Macron was pictured on the cover of Paris Match magazine riding a jet ski while temperatures topped 41 degrees Celsius.  German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took an extended summer break through most of August and had nothing to say while drought dried up the Rhine, fires swept the country, and an estimated 12,000 people died from heat-related causes. David Fickling Bloomberg 8 September 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-08/heatwaves-are-making-europe-s-politicians-look-clueless-again France and Spain have been among the hottest locations this week with temperatures exceeding 40C at times. On Thursday, El Granado in south-west Spain reached 45.7C, ...

När jag gick i nian fick vi se en film i skolan om klimatkrisen. Jag hade nyss fyllt femton och blivit lite samhällsintresserad. Vidden av klimatkrisen hade jag dock inte förstått innan läraren släckte ner klassrummet och satte på projektorn. På duken visades en liten ensam isbjörn på ett drivande isflak. Glaciärer som kalvade och enorma isblock som rasade ner i havet. Skogar i lågor med flera meter höga eldväggar. Döda träd som sträckte sig mot himlen. Scenerna ackompanjerades av dramatisk musik och experter som förkunnade att slutet var nära. Jag uppfattade två budskap. Det ena var att vi måste göra något nu. Det andra var att det förmodligen redan var för sent. Tankarna for i huvudet. Å ena sidan: Det här kan omöjligt vara sant, för i så fall skulle jag redan ha vetat om det. Det skulle vara det enda människor pratade om. Å andra sidan: Varför skulle skolan visa en film om något som inte var sant? Varför skulle experter säga något som inte stämde? När jag försökte prata med mina vän...

Nolan trusts Homer—and his audience—to recognize that villains deserve defeat and heroes deserve to triumph. The best parts of Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey are the parts in which he simply tells the story of Homer’s original poem. This may seem like a low bar. It’s not.  Over the years, it has proven oddly difficult for contemporary filmmakers to adapt this thrilling epic without distorting it, emptying it of its charm, or offering a modern “take.”   It is true that life is complicated. It is also true that there are such things as right and wrong.  The best artists are able to acknowledge and show both of these truths at once. Spencer Klavan The Free Press 17 July 2026 https://www.thefp.com/p/there-is-good-and-evil-christopher  Det fel som kollaboratörerna begick, säger Jean-Paul Sartre i en berömd och tänkvärd uppsats från 1945, bestod inte så mycket i att de sympatiserade med de tyska ockupanterna, utan snarare i att de betraktade kampens utgång som given. http...

Back in 2010 Italy was the major worry with its national debt at 120pc of GDP off the back of a decade of stagnation overseen by six different governments. In the end, Italy was “saved” under technocratic leadership. With £1,800bn of sovereign debt and a 10-year bond yield above 7pc, Silvio Berlusconi, then the prime minister, made way for unelected officials imposed by external creditors. For Italy, now read France – except the dangers posed to worldwide financial stability are now greater. France is an even bigger economy, the rest of the eurozone is far more indebted than 16 years ago and the ECB has maxed out its money-printing trick. Paris is managing a national debt of 117pc of GDP, compared to 139pc in Rome. But Italian debt has been falling as a share of GDP while in France it’s been rising. Initially chided by foreign commentators, Meloni’s administration will become the longest continuously serving government in the history of the Italian republic this week.  Under her, I...

Chipfrossan förvärrades under fredagen. Halvledarsektorn gör därmed sin sämsta vecka på över ett år.  S&P 500 backade 1 procent, Dow Jones 0,8 procent och Nasdaq handlades ned 1,4 procent. ”Frågan nu är om detta kommer att bli ännu ett tillfälle att ’köpa dippen’, eller om försäljningstakten accelererar när alla samtidigt rusar mot utgångarna”, säger David Morrison. https://www.di.se/live/usa-stanger-pa-rott/ Vändpunkten 31 mars 2026 "Snart blir det fred" https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/vandpunkten-31-mars-2026.html Merz, Macron plan closer nuclear cooperation Germany is expected to soon take part in a nuclear drill with France, Germany's Merz said after meeting France's Macron.  Deutsche Welle 17 jui 2026 https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-merz-macron-plan-closer-nuclear-cooperation/live-77998510 The U.S. and Iran Creep Toward a Wider War With Escalating Attacks. Strikes on more sensitive targets across the Persian Gulf risk setting off a spiral as neit...

$68bn - 656 miljarder kr - wiped off IBM on its worst day ever; more than 25pc https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/07/14/ibm-loses-68bn-in-worst-day-on-record/ ”Den första ronden i sjöslaget är slut. Nu tar vi Svarta havet” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/den-forsta-ronden-i-sjoslaget-ar-slut.html Donald Trump’s return to war with Iran offers no clear path to victory - Behind his bravado it remains unclear how the US president will limit the economic, political and diplomatic costs of the latest escalation, particularly as the autumn midterm elections loom. Financial Times 15 July 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/7a993639-28aa-442a-8ea6-2abaa695b698 One reason prices have not risen further is that oil markets still deem it likely that, with midterm elections four months away, Mr Trump will cave. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/07/14/trumps-hormuz-brinkmanship-is-worsening-a-global-fuel-crunch Ja, vad kan vara viktigare än the midterm elections? T...

Iran's new regime is very different. When US President Donald Trump signed a ceasefire agreement with Iran during dinner at the Palace of Versailles last month. The 1919 treaty reshaped Europe, but its demands for huge reparations left an angry and embittered Germany and helped to set the stage for another global conflagration just 20 years later. Spegelsalen i Versailles den 18 januari 1871, när Vilhelm I utropas till tysk kejsare efter segern i fransk-tyska kriget. Dumt nog hade Napoleon III förklarat krig och förlorat. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/spegelsalen-i-versailles-den-18-januari.html Might the Iran deal, different in so many ways, nevertheless come to be seen as similarly fateful? The US and Israel may have sent many of the country's former leaders to early graves, but have they been replaced by even more formidable foes? Two key figures, the parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the commander-in-chief of the Revolutiona...

UK and Europe  snapshot of their new climate. We might only be a few days into July, but two record-breaking summer heatwaves have already provided the UK and Europe with a snapshot of their new climate. Hot on the heels of May's heat, June saw temperature records not only broken but smashed in what the UN's weather agency called an "extraordinary" event across the continent. And after a brief period of respite, another heatwave is on the way. If this feels unusual, that is because it is. BBC 4 July 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8e2j0j87reo RE 30 juni 2026: Många av mina bästa vänner är klimatförnekare. De anser att det rör sig om normala svängningar i klimatet, istiden and all that. Andra anser att det beror på våra utsläpp av växthusgaser. Tonläget kan bli högt i debatten dem emellan. Men tänk om båda har rätt.  Då är det verkligen illa.  Heatwave breaks records in Germany, Denmark and Czech Republic Germany set a new all-time high for the second day in a ...

  Medlarlandet Pakistan var det första att tillkännage att USA och Iran hade nått en överenskommelse, sent på söndagskvällen svensk tid. ”Båda sidor är överens om ett omedelbart och permanent upphörande av militära operationer på alla fronter, inklusive i Libanon”, skriver Pakistans premiärminister Shehbaz Sharif på X. SvT 15 juni 2026 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/usa-och-iran-overens-om-avtal-hormuzsundet-oppnas Pakistan, a country once isolated by Washington for harboring Osama bin Laden, is assuming a surprisingly prominent position in the multination effort to push the U.S. and Iran toward the negotiating table https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/pakistans-fredsmaklare.html Trumps avtal, väljarna och Irans Revolutionära Garde https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/trumps-avtal-valjarna-och-irans.html Börslyft att vänta: ”Tydliga men behärskade rörelser”. Handeln hos IG Markets indikerar en uppgång på 1,5 procent för Stockholmsbörsen. DI 15 juni 2026, 08:11 h...