25 september. Winsth vs.Bratt. 5% Mark New Era. Tectonic shift. Muntert avslut på veckan? Realränta, Englunds lag och Bopriserna. Pimco. Taiwan.

Irans pris för ett öppnat Hormuz: 120 miljarder

USA ska också lyfta sjöblockaden och alla sanktioner mot iransk olja. Om så sker inom loppet av en vecka så släpper Iran på för trafik genom Hormuzsundet igen, enligt förslaget.

DI 25 september 2026, 12:23



Stockholmsbörsen går mot ett muntert avslut på veckan.

DI 25 september 2026, 12:45

https://www.di.se/live/muntert-pa-borsen-sinch-mot-strommen/

    
Uppgången tappade fart
Avslutade veckan i dur, men tappade stadigt fart 
https://www.di.se/live/uppgangen-tappade-fart-ljummet-for-borsdebutanten/


Gårdagens glada nyhet

Oljepriset faller tillbaka och Wall Street återhämtar sig i spåren av att Reuters rapporterat att USA och Iran för diskussioner som inkluderar en öppning av Hormuzsundet.

DI 24 september 2026, 19:09

https://www.di.se/live/uppgifter-om-hormuzsamtal-oljepriset-faller-tillbaka/




USA-börserna avslutade veckan med en relativt stabil uppgång efter att oljepriset fallit tillbaka.

Priset föll omkring 2 procent efter att CBS rapporterat, med hänvisning till Al Jazeera, att förhandlingarna mellan Iran och USA ska ha gått in i en mer detaljerad teknisk fas.

https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-avslutade-veckan-i-dur-microsoft-lyfte/




Mr. Xi on Thursday urged the U.S. to “adhere to the correct position of opposing Taiwan independence,” 

The current and longstanding U.S. position is that it “does not support Taiwan independence,” and that it expects relations between Beijing and Taipei to be resolved peacefully.

The U.S. is content with the status quo that has prevailed for decades, and that previous Chinese leaders were happy to tolerate. He wants Trump to change the U.S. position on the island.

Bad idea.

As for the Taiwanese, no major party is pressing for formal independence.

Let’s hope Mr. Trump doesn’t fall for Mr. Xi’s Taiwan independence deception.

Wall Street Journal Editorial 24 September 2026

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/china-taiwan-xi-jinping-donald-trump-summit-b7f647b5


Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of the Kuomintang. Bill Clinton we don't support a one-China, one-Taiwan policy. The Chinese Dream Xi.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/cheng-li-wun-chairwoman-of-kuomintang.html


Bond Yields at 5% Mark New Era 'Until Something Breaks'

Yields on US Treasuries have surged past one high after the next, with nearly all US benchmark yields hovering around or above 5%.

The rise in yields has immediate, real-world consequences for consumers, corporations, and governments, with the potential to send the economy skidding as borrowers feel the squeeze.

The average yield on government debt worldwide sits just shy of 4%, the highest since 2007, with the $32 trillion US Treasury market's average yield at 5.05%.
Bloomberg 25 September 2026

Why High Bond Yields Look Like the New Normal



The tectonic plates of the global economy have shifted. Across the world, yields on long government bonds — keystone of the entire financial system — have climbed to their highest in decades. 

There’s a traditional libertarian argument that a higher cost of money could be exactly the medicine that capitalism needs by forcing companies to spend on projects that have a real chance of generating a return. 

This follows almost two decades when yields were held unnaturally low by policies such as quantitative easing, or QE.

France  Germany there is a growing risk that the shift in the financial tectonic plates could lead to a political earthquake in the euro zone.

But such aftershocks, if they happen, are for the future. For now, despite everything, the ground beneath our feet remains stable.
John Authers Bloomberg 25 September 2026

Ingen fara, fattas bara.

OBS Realränta
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-25/higher-bond-yields-have-changed-what-safety-means

Nog borde väl ekonomin tåla en realränta på 2 (två) procent, nu med Ai och allting. Borde ja, men.

Englunds lag 3  
Räntan (A) är vad som behövs för att stoppa inflationen.
Räntan (B) är den som gör att bostadsmarknaden kollapsar.
Om A är större än B har vi ett stort problem.
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/englunds-lag-3-inflation-and-housing.html

Bostadsrättsmarknaden har de senaste åren präglats
 av en ovanligt svag prisutveckling.


Från folkhem till Hemnetdröm – så lärde bankerna och mäklarna oss att älska bolån. Svenska hushåll är bland de mest skuldsatta i världen, mycket tack vare våra bolån.
Hur kunde ett sparsamt folk förvandlas till fartblinda bostadskarriärister?
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/fran-folkhem-till-hemnetdrom-sa-larde.html


Nordeas chefsekonom Annika Winsth tar upp att de svenska hushållen i dag är i en bättre situation, med lägre skulder och högre sparande, jämfört med senaste räntehöjningscykeln 2022. 

Det gör att hushållen kan hantera högre räntor på ett bättre sätt.

https://www.di.se/nyheter/ekonomen-om-rantevarningen-lite-onodigt-hart/

Svenskarnas räntekänslighet rekordhög

Serien av räntehöjningar kommer i ett läge där svenskarna är mer räntekänsliga än på många år. I dag ligger andelen bolån med rörlig ränta på hela 77 procent, enligt statistik från SCB. Det motsvarar cirka 3 300 miljarder kr, och är den högsta nivån på tio år.

Siffran kan jämföras med när Riksbanken började höja räntan 2022, för fyra år sedan. Då låg andelen rörliga bolån på 42 procent. 

Riksbanken flaggar tydligt för en serie räntehöjningar med start i slutet av året. Beskedet kommer i ett läge där svenskarnas räntekänslighet är rekordhög.

Frida Bratt DI  24 september 2026, 20:1800

https://www.di.se/nyheter/svenskarnas-rantekanslighet-rekordhog-fler-paverkas/



The 85% decline in value means even the bond’s safest slices, once rated AAA, will get hit, a recovery of around 44 cents on the dollar,

while holders of seven lower-ranking tranches will be wiped out. 

Bloomberg 25 September 2026

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/pimco-faces-35-million-loss-on-philadelphia-offices

What Might Topple the Private Capital Pyramid?
Investopedia September 08, 2026

Dagen innan

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/24-september.html



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