Englund

Totalt sett har amerikanska bolag lånat 2.000 miljarder dollar under 2020 - mer än det tidigare rekordet för ett helt år.  Även så kallade skräpobligationer  är glödheta. Det är en marknad som Federal Reserve i stort sett fiskade ur dödens käftar i mars i år. Andreas Cervenka DI 29 september 2020 https://www.di.se/nyheter/nar-bubblan-spricker-finns-ingen-raddning/ Sven Hagströmer: ”Börsen är galen, den går på steroider” Andreas Cervenka skrev en väldigt bra artikel om detta nyligen. https://www.di.se/analys/sven-hagstromer-borsen-ar-galen-den-gar-pa-steroider/ Food Prices Rising, Inflation Kicks Into High Gear as Banks and Big Oil Intensify Layoffs! The Money GPS Youtube 1 October 2020

I find  insider-outsider classification more useful than, let us say, establishment versus anti-establishment, or liberalism versus populism.  I do not believe that populism will endure. But the rules-based multilateral order is crumbling for reasons that have nothing to do with populism.  Many traditional power centres of our democracies — centrist political parties, the mainstream media, some industries — are oligopolies under siege for a reason. After 17 years, this will be my final column for this newspaper. Wolfgang Münchau FT 27 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/df167ea5-4750-444e-82ff-0f44b09e72be You know where to find me. The author is director of www.eurointelligence.com https://www.eurointelligence.com

over the value of the collateral backing commercial mortgages throughout the financial system. Properties that have gotten into trouble are being written down by 27 per cent on average FT 27 September 2020  https://www.ft.com/content/a34e131c-bf6f-4b7d-9a2c-84c632243e87 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/09/rise-in-distressed-commercial-mortgages.html

Because that will continue, and the current-account balance is following suit, the dollar's real effective exchange rate can head in only one direction. Even with the recent modest correction, the greenback remains the most overvalued major currency in the world, with the REER still 34% above its July 2011 low. This will trigger a collapse in the US current-account deficit. Lacking in saving and wanting to invest and grow, the US must import surplus saving from abroad and run massive external deficits to attract foreign capital.  Again, this is not esoteric economic theory – just a simple balance-of-payments accounting identity. Stephen S. Roach Project Syndicate 25 September 2020 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/saving-rate-and-current-account-imply-dollar-depreciation-by-stephen-s-roach-2020-09 --- My prediction of a 35% drop in the broad dollar index is premised on the belief that this is just the beginning of a long-overdue realignment between the world’s two major

Economists will be relieved that the laws of supply and demand are still working, at a time when so much in the discipline is in doubt.   The swings in our buying habits have accentuated the difference between the consumer-price index (CPI) and the personal-consumption-expenditures price index (PCE).  CPI captures the headlines and determines the return on inflation-linked Treasurys, or TIPS.  The Federal Reserve uses PCE—and the two diverged over the summer. WSJ 26 September 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-already-herefor-the-stuff-you-actually-want-to-buy-11601112630

THE MAN WHO RAN WASHINGTON  By Peter Baker and Susan Glasser Doubleday WSJ 25 September 2020

The dramatic rise in unpaid mortgages has already led to $54bn of loans transferring to special servicers in recent months — more than 10 per cent of the CMBS market  FT 25 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/8b61193a-38fc-400a-bbf1-d6862ea709bf Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) Remember 1929 when looking for the cause of the coming financial crisis https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/09/commercial-mortgage-backed-securities.html

Project Syndicate: In May, you argued that, when economies face a liquidity trap at the effective lower bound for the nominal policy interest rate, monetized increases in public spending or tax cuts are an appropriate policy response.  But once interest rates return to “normal,” governments “will have to adjust their fiscal position and its financing accordingly.” Let’s apply this logic to the United States PS: The challenge is somewhat different in the eurozone, which you have noted is “at constant risk of national sovereign-debt defaults.” The only way to reduce this risk, you argue, is with “a much larger countercyclical recovery fund, proper conditionality to ensure fiscal sustainability, and an effective sovereign-debt restructuring mechanism.”  At this point, how likely do you think it is that “the consequences of this experiment with socialism” will last “well beyond the end of the pandemic”?  Willem H. Buiter Project Syndicate 22. September 2020  https://www.project-syndicate.o

Chancellor’s cut-price jobs scheme makes the same mistakes as France and the Italy and will not stop an unemployment cliff-edge this winter Bank of America said the 3m people on the furlough scheme are effectively being written off as "non-viable".  The Treasury seems to assume that they can switch “relatively seamlessly” to other jobs, but no such jobs are likely to exist in a depressed economy starved of aggregate demand. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 25 September  2020 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/25/sunak-plan-risks-1930s-style-unemploymentand-not-kurzarbeit/ Kurzarbeit The legacy of Hartz IV is a lumpen-proletariat of 7.4m people on “mini-jobs”, part-time work that is tax-free up to €450. This flatters the jobless rate, but Germany has become a split society, more unequal than at any time in its modern history. A fifth of German children are raised in poverty. http://www.nejtillemu.com/tyskdebatt2016.htm#Hartz

Det är en ökning med 14 miljarder jämfört med juli och en ökning med 218 miljarder jämfört med augusti 2019. Hushållens bostadslån uppgick i augusti till totalt 3 566 miljarder kronor, en ökning med 11 miljarder jämfört med månaden före  en ökning med 183 miljarder jämfört med motsvarande månad i fjol. SvD/TT 25 september 2020 https://www.svd.se/hushallens-lan-vaxer-i-oforandrad-takt-ki4v ”Helt klart verkar ingen orolig över att inflationen ska härja som den gjorde under exempelvis 1970-talet.  Men detta kommer ju att leda till allt högre skuldsättning och det kanske inte är ett problem de närmsta fem eller tio åren men på sikt visar ju historien att skuldberg inte brukar vara gynnsamt”,  säger Di:s Johan Wendel, 25 september 2020

Remember 1929 when looking for the cause of the coming financial crisis I think it is more likely that the coming financial crisis will be triggered by the market’s rejection of a few classes of securities. Something like this happened in 1929 with the collapse of pyramided securities holding companies. Among the easiest targets in the aftermath of this will be the major credit rating agencies. The ratings the agencies bestowed on CMBS were just a marketing tool for selling securities.  FT 25 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/f9ff9ed0-c7ff-4718-a65b-8be712379e84

One problem haunting finance, as Carmen Reinhart, chief economist of the World Bank, notes, is that leverage at many institutions was sky-high even before Covid-19 Hyun Song Shin, chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, has noted. “The immediate liquidity phase of the crisis is [now] giving way to the solvency phase, and banks will undoubtedly bear the brunt.” Gillian Tett FT 24 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/c95e5a72-8322-4cfc-b36a-69e8998aea01

They are already acting preemptively to shore up their capital buffers, tightening credit lines to vulnerable firms, threatening to set off a vicious circle.   There is no immediate pressure on EU debt markets. ECB bond purchases hide all sins. Risk spreads are beautifully behaved.  But this is not a stable equilibrium. Sovereign debt ratios will reach extreme levels across much of the Club Med bloc this year, hitting 160pc of GDP in Italy. Whatever they claim, EU leaders never completed the eurozone banking union.  The sovereign-bank "doom loop" of 2012 is still there. All that has changed is the scale of the menace. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 22 September 2020 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/23/europe-risks-languishing-slump-americas-economy-powers-ahead/

The recovery would move along faster “if there is support coming both from Congress and from the Fed,” Chairman Jerome Powell said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told reporters that his projection that the unemployment rate would fall below 6% by the end of next year had been premised on around $1 trillion in additional fiscal relief. WSJ 23 september 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-emphasize-need-for-additional-relief-to-ensure-robust-recovery-1160087289 7

The latest sell-off was about rethinking the basic assumption that the U.S. and world economies can continue to recover, buoyed by continuing Fed largesse.  At this point, the downdraft in U.S. stocks isn’t about the FANGs. Real yields have been rising from their previous historic lows (chart) I recommended Chopin’s piano preludes as good listening for a time when you felt the need to hit the panic button. (Such as now, probably.)  John Authers Bloomberg 24 september 2020  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-24/this-bout-of-stock-market-angst-looks-much-darker

Att "spara i ladorna" har varit hennes svar på i stort sett alla krav på utgiftsökningar de senaste åren. Hennes instinkt efter 90-talskrisen är att en stram finanspolitik är att föredra eftersom det ger en stabil samhällsutveckling och handlingsfrihet vid kriser. Aftonbladet 22 september 2020 https://www.aftonbladet.se/ledare/a/Ln0LvJ/brrr-tank-om-m-hade-styrt-landet

Dial it back a couple decades, and the index rose about 86% over 151 days.  The reasons for the explosive rally may be vastly different, but the paths are, indeed, strikingly similar. “I don’t know, maybe it is just chance, but still awfully strange,” Kramer wrote. “I guess we are going to find out soon whether the similarities end there.” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-stunning-and-shocking-chart-has-one-wall-street-strategist-worried-about-the-stock-markets-next-move-11600874025

The ECB’s longest-serving policy maker Yves Mersch, a lawyer by training, is responsible for the ECB’s legal services.  He has also been at the center of decisions since the single currency’s birth, as head of Luxembourg’s central bank from 1998 and then on the ECB’s six-member board from 2012.  He’ll step down in December. Mersch stressed that the ECB doesn’t target the exchange rate, but acknowledged it is “obvious” that it affects the measurement of inflation and must be monitored. Bloomberg 23 September 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-23/ecb-must-limit-emergency-powers-to-temporary-crises-mersch-says

Det borde man försöka ändra på. Johan Schück 22 september 2020 https://johanschuck.se/vad-bor-bli-riksbankens-mal-nar-inflationen-ar-fast-under-tva-procent/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/powell-pledges-the-feds-economic-aid-for-as-long-as-it-takes.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/21/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html Jfr Mario Draghi’s defining moment as ECB president came in July 2012 when he unexpectedly pledged to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro.

För det ska vi tacka Anders Borg och Magdalena Andersson som har hållit hårt i slantarna under de goda åren.  I jämförelse med resten av Europa har vi stora möjligheter att ta oss helskinnade ur eländet.  Henrik Mitelman DI 21 september 2020 https://www.di.se/analys/sveriges-stora-problem-forblir-olosta-lage-att-testa-nagot-radikalt/

S&P said banks in the eurozone’s former crisis-hit “periphery” — such as Italy, Greece and Spain — have the highest exposure to their governments’ debt, along with those outside the euro area in central and eastern Europe. FT 21 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/0696b32b-936d-4d96-81db-c131d5bd8d9d

With stocks and government bonds at historically high valuations, savers are being forced to seek out alternatives, potentially creating a boon for other asset classes but also pitching long-term investors into uncharted territory FT 22 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/fdb793a4-712e-477f-9a81-7f67aefda21a

 – Det finns aldrig någon investering som är riskfri, men att äga bostadsfastigheter på orter där efterfrågan kommer att vara fortsatt hög är så nära en obligation man kan komma och med en bättre avkastning, säger Carl-Johan Hansson, chef för affärsområde Fastigheter på Riksbyggen.  Publicerad:29 maj 2020, Uppdaterad:11 september 2020 https://www.di.se/brandstudio/riksbyggen/sa-kan-investeringar-i-bostadsfastigheter-bli-en-annu-battre-affar/ Serneke rasar på börsen – vd:n duckar alla frågor DI 21 september 2020 https://www.di.se/nyheter/serneke-rasar-pa-borsen-vd-n-duckar-alla-fragor/ The COVID-19 lockdown is squeezing real estate from all sides and threatens to burst the housing and mortgage bubble Another reason for alarm is the private, non-guaranteed (non-agency) securitized mortgages that go back to the crazy bubble years and which are still active. These were the millions of sub-prime and other non-prime loans that were egregiously underwritten, many fraudulently. At the peak of

since it would make balance sheets look healthier than they are.  However, it would recreate the very problem that occurred after the financial crisis of 2008 and the ensuing European sovereign debt crisis, as banks used supervisory forbearance to avoid dealing with their mounting bad loans. Ferdinando Giugliano Bloomberg 21 september 2020  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-21/coronavirus-is-it-time-for-the-ecb-to-get-tougher-on-banks

decent increases in real incomes and decent levels of real interest rates. But… In both the East and West, populations are ageing rapidly. Many countries, including Japan, Germany and China, are going to experience dramatic drops in the working age population, accompanied by major dissaving by the old and retired.  Roger Bootle Telegraph 20 September 2020 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/20/now-demographic-turning-point/

The US government bond market is akin to the investment world’s bomb shelter, a safe space where everyone can seek refuge when the rest of the financial system is exploding.  In March, the bomb shelter itself started to rumble ominously.  Robin Wigglesworth 21 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/be700784-19c9-4883-886f-02a11126f756

The Money GPS 21 sep. 2020 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLFYptnOKd0

Gains were concentrated in a few big companies. That trend has been at least somewhat corrected in the last two weeks. The herd psychology isn’t just visible at the level of individual stocks. John Authers Bloomberg 21 september 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-21/tech-stocks-reversal-is-healthy-correction-of-unbalanced-market

– Riksbanken har varit en av de centralbanker som tittat mest på inflationen när den har fört sin politik. Men nu darrar hela det där bygget lite i grundvalarna.  Det är ganska tydligt att pendeln svänger mot ett helt annat håll. Men vi vet inte mot vilket håll och vi vet inte hur långt, säger Kristin Magnusson Bernard. SvD 21 september 2020 https://www.svd.se/fondchefen-darfor-ar-riksbanken-sa-otydlig

https://www.amazon.com/Virtual-History-Counterfactuals-Niall-Ferguson/dp/0465023231 Counterfactual history Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_history Niall Ferguson - en av mina Gurus https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/07/niall-ferguson-en-av-mina-gurus.html Niall Fergusson about Brexit: I'm going to admit that I was wrong https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2016/12/niall-fergusson-about-brexit-im-going.html

when inflation targeting spread round the world after its success in New Zealand.  A generation later, history has started again, with unpredictable consequences. R-star is the equilibrium real interest rate, while u-star is the natural rate of unemployment. Both stars seem to have been falling in recent years, the Fed has had trouble catching them The ECB has even more reason than the Fed to examine its navel: annual inflation has fallen even shorter of the 2% target. The last time inflation was above 2% was 2012  ECB also has the German Federal Constitutional Court to worry about. Howard Davies, Project Syndicate 16 September 2020 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/future-of-monetary-policy-after-inflation-targeting-by-howard-davies-2020-09 Howard Davies, the first chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority (1997-2003), is Chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland.  He was Director of the London School of Economics (2003-11) and served as Deputy Governor of

Nu gäller snabba cash och ”the sky is the limit” på finansdepartementet. Det svenska budgetunderskottet väntas i år bli det största sedan 1995, året då finansminister Göran Persson stod inför de flinande finansvalparna på Wall Street och bad om pengar. Ingen – inte heller stramhetens överstepräster i det Finanspolitiska rådet – tycker att det är fel att staten nu lånar massor av pengar för att möta coronakrisen. ... Lars Jonung: Det finns en kunskap att sparsamheten, det vill säga det finanspolitiska ramverket som växte fram efter 90-talskrisen, har tjänat Sverige väl, inte minst under dagens kris. Så man kan hoppas att den extremt expansiva finanspolitiken enbart är ett temporärt krisfenomen. – Jag tycker ju att det är fördel att vi har det här utrymmet nu. Ramverket har tjänat oss väl, säger Karolina Ekholm. Kriskommissionären Torsten Persson, som inte oroar sig värst mycket över att Lindbeckkommissionens budgetpolitiska arv skulle vara hotat. Kommer partierna att hålla fast vid en s

Det är oklart vad man ska hålla sig till när sådant som överskottsmål och inflationsmål inte längre fungerar. Redan nu skulle det behövas en plan för återgång till balans i de offentliga finanserna, både vad gäller budgetsaldo och skuldnivå.  Johan Schück 17 September 2020 https://johanschuck.se/ekonomisk-politik-i-normlost-tillstand-vad-ar-det-egentligen-som-galler/  

På dokumentet som Björn Wahlström räckte över till Erik Penser stod att Penser skulle acceptera att lämna över alla sina tillgångar till Nordbanken och att han skulle sälja, sina bolag Yggdrasil, Gyllenkamne, Universal och Expo Nord för en krona styck. Tillsammans ägde dessa bolag bland annat 70 procent av Nobel Industrier. Planens regissör var Roger Holtback, hävdar Penser. - Det säger alla. Det var inget personligt men han var ute efter att rädda sitt eget skinn. https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Holtback Dan Magnerot - Dagens Nyheter - 19 september 1991 http://www.bankrattsforeningen.org.se/Penser/penser6.html Erik Penser Bank 2020 https://www.penser.se

Veteran hedge-fund manager says capitalists don’t divide the economic pie well, so the system isn’t working effectively for all. MarketWatch 17 September 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-on-capitalisms-crisis-the-world-is-going-to-change-in-shocking-ways-in-the-next-five-years-2020-09-17 Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire.

Central bankers all acknowledge in private that low rates are like rocket fuel for asset prices; this is considered a key transmission channel for monetary policy.  B ut few will admit in public that they are responsible for this summers stock market surge, either because they do not want to create a "put" for the markets, or get blamed for increasing wealth inequality or become scapegoats if a bubble pops. Or all three. Gillian Tett FT 17 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/0216be8d-147a-439f-8f26-db6bc25e4d4c BIS Report https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2009a.pdf

Nu har Handelsbankens styrelse, ledd av Boman och Lundberg, beslutat att aldrig mer ge Oktogonen pengar. I stället ska de anställda få utbetalningen direkt. Det betyder att stiftelsen är i så kallad ”runoff” – den kommer att krympa för att till slut försvinna helt. För att förstå att det här är en revolution måste vi gå tillbaka i tiden. År 1970 var det kris i banken. Jan Wallander tog över som vd, stöpte om banken och gav den en decentraliserad struktur där makten fanns hos kontorscheferna. Banken blev synnerligen lönsam. Dessutom grundade Wallander personalstiftelsen Oktogonen 1973. https://www.svd.se/de-stora-forlorarna-ar-de-anstallda För detta, att skänka bort aktieägarnas pengar, fick Wallander bisarrt nog pris för av Aktiespararna. Tidsandans kraft är stor. Wallenberg följde efter. Civilekonom Rolf Englund ledde motståndet mot SE-bankens vinstandelssystem.  https://www.internetional.se/resevd977.htm Även Björn Tarras-Wahlberg gjorde en tapper insats.

Bloomberg 9 september 2020  D is former chief strategist for billionaire philanthropist George Soros https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-09/druckenmiller-says-market-in-raging-mania-inflation-a-threat

This year’s wild ride is even more striking against the backdrop of the recession and pandemic gripping the U.S.  Millions of Americans remain unemployed, corporate profits have collapsed at the steepest rate in a decade and the pandemic hasn’t been contained. Gunjan Banerji WSJ Sept. 15, 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-did-stock-markets-rebound-from-covid-in-record-time-here-are-five-reasons-11600182704

Nice charts John Authers Bloomberg 15 september 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-15/fed-wants-inflation-japan-points-to-easy-money-limits

True, the federal government can spend any amount by simply printing up the needed money (in reality, creating bank reserves). True, our government need never default since it can always print dollars to repay Treasury bonds.  But if the government prints up and spends, say, $10 trillion, will that not lead to inflation? Ms. Kelton acknowledges the possibility: “If the government tries to spend too much in an economy that’s already running at full speed, inflation will accelerate.” So how do we determine if the economy is running at full speed, or full of “slack,” with unemployed people and idle businesses that extra money might put to work without inflation? John H. Cochrane WSJ June 5, 2020  https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-deficit-myth-review-years-of-magical-thinking-11591396579 Mr. Cochrane is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institut A profound shift is now taking place in economics as a result, of the sort that happens only once in a g

Under de senaste månaderna har centralbankerna fått för sig att de ska permanenta lågräntemiljön genom att också ändra sina målsättningar. Den amerikanska centralbanken leder, de andra följer.  Värderingsuppgång på tillgångar är den enda inflationen vi får under 2020-talet. Henrik Mitelman DI 14 september 2020 https://www.di.se/analys/den-utplanade-rantan-ger-koplage-i-nastan-allt/ Why the Fed’s change of tack could mean inflation is not dead after all Roger Bootle Telegraph 13 September 2020 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/09/why-feds-change-of-tack-could-mean.html

Japan’s 1989 property-and-equity bubble or the pre-2007 housing-and-structured-debt bubble. Past bubbles linked to certain sectors have been followed by financial disruption, higher household savings and sudden changes to corporate behavior James Mackintosh WSJ Sept. 13, 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/call-it-a-bubble-call-it-excess-heres-what-to-watch-if-tech-goes-pop-11600002001 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania

Fed Officials Are Pushing for More Stimulus From Lawmakers Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has delicately but resolutely said in recent months he expects Congress will need to do more to compensate for income losses sustained by unemployed workers and revenue holes facing hard-hit businesses and city and state governments because of the coronavirus pandemic. Wall Street Journal 13 September 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-fed-officials-are-begging-for-more-stimulus-from-lawmakers-11600005600 Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken. Englund 5 december 2009 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2014/08/skriande-uppenbart.html And,  of course, Keynes

battle-britain-80th-commemoration-flying-among-clouds-ghosts The real story of how Britain won WW2 With link to Biggles https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-real-story-of-how-britain-won-ww2.html "She brought us up to believe that anyone can do anything - you know, the sky's the limit. Well, I think she reached that and beyond." https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england- london-62330141

25 years since I wrote my book The Death of Inflation. I wonder whether we can see now on the horizon the beginnings of a regime where the Fed actively seeks to get inflation running at a level significantly above 2pc, not just for a year or two but as the norm. Of course, just because central banks want inflation to be above 2pc doesn’t mean to say that they will achieve this. After all, recently they haven’t been able to get inflation up to the 2pc target . But there are some differences from the situation that existed before the coronavirus crisis.  Roger Bootle Telegraph 13 September 2020 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/13/feds-change-tack-could-mean-inflation-not-dead/

Den gamla statliga fastighetsskatten avskaffades 2008 och ersattes med en kommunal fastighetsavgift på max 6 000 kronor per år. Den gamla fastighetsskatten var 1 procent av taxeringsvärdet och det är ungefär så hög den bör vara om den ska återinföras, enligt Åsa Hansson. För den svenska snittvillan med ett marknadsvärde på 2,6 miljoner kronor skulle det innebära 19 500 kronor om året. – Det går inte att införa över en natt, utan det är något som man får trappa upp successivt så att folk får tid att anpassa sig, säger hon. Aftonbladet 13 september 2020 https://www.aftonbladet.se/minekonomi/a/dldlXo/forslag-aterinfor-fastighetsskatten

The US federal government spent more than $6tn in the first 11 months of its financial year. The figure outpaces the $3tn it took in from taxes. The shortfall is more than double the previous full-year record, set in 2009. BBC 9 eleven 2020 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54126226

On the weekend, the era of the universal man-in-jeans-and-a-T-shirt is almost here. At work it is not far behind This trend depresses me; others find it a relief. Either way it’s a puzzle. Human beings still see themselves, in the first place, as reflected in others’ eyes. We are vain, hierarchical and desperate for approval. Why are we expressing this less and less through what we wear? Let us turn, then, to our greatest theorist of showing off: Thorstein Veblen. The Theory of the Leisure Class, written 120 years ago Once a new order is well established and class boundaries are firmed up, conspicuous display of power becomes less important and, ultimately, vulgar. For those at the top of the status system, formal attire is replaced by “more delicate methods of expressing [power]; methods which are no less evident to the trained eyes of that smaller, select circle” FT 9 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/1153108d-032e-4223-b390-0b1bcd8c38f5

Maria Pasquale, CNN 12th September 2020 https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/italy-tourism-economy-catastrophe-covid/index.html

rules designed to ensure EU countries pursue sound public finances Mr Le Maire, the French finance minister,  said that an “improvement” to the rules was necessary in his view, but that it was too soon to discuss when to introduce such a change. FT 11 September 2020 Är Stabilitetspakten Stupid?  Olli Rehn, Prodi och Persson - Most governments still deny that they can print money with impunity, as advocated by modern monetary theory, but what matters is that they are doing it. Simon Kuper FT 4 June 2020

Even if you think rules-based international order perfectly captures the essence of what we are trying to defend, you must acknowledge that the phrase has very limited emotional appeal except perhaps to some elderly schoolmasters.  The brave people protesting in Belarus, Lebanon or Venezuela would never think to put such words on their home-made banners.  They write "freedom". Or "justice". Or "truth". To win the fight against populism, we must appeal to the emotions Timothy Garton Ash, FT 11 September 2020 Economics is not a hard science, and mathematical models won’t explain why people behave as they do. A much broader perspective is needed https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/05/economics-global-crash-human-behaviour http://www.nejtillemu.com/ash.htm

Washington won’t be there to support the economy this time, as infections inevitably rise as people head back indoors BARRY EICHENGREEN MarketWatch 10 September 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pandemic-is-about-to-enter-its-most-treacherous-phase-11599770478

  Credit Ambrose

The excesses of the post-Covid rally haven’t been corrected  Confidence that a vaccine will bring the economic disruption caused by the pandemic to an end appears to be wildly overdone Lockdowns, on this argument, may actually be counterproductive.  They slow the process of reaching herd immunity. There are more French, British and Spanish bodies still to be infected, and so the virus can take hold again.  It is still far too early for supporters of the Swedish approach to declare victory.  John Authers Bloomberg 10 september 2020

The coronavirus rout brought a copious amount of new accounts to online brokers this year as amateur investors sought to get a slice of the epic market comeback. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-surge-in-retail-investor-activity-is-downright-terrifying.html Gundlach also snubbed one of the market’s favorite trades on a U.S. recovery, saying he’s “betting against” the inflation-linked bond market.  TIPS products have seen some of the strongest monthly inflows in four years, and market-implied expectations for inflation have touched a 2020 high.  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-surge-in-retail-investor-activity-is-downright-terrifying.html

David Goodhart, whose new book  Head, Hand, Heart   Michael Sandel, whose book  The Tyranny of Merit  looks at how meritocratic striving is undermining social cohesion and liberal democracy.  It wasn’t meant to be like this. Rana Fororoohar FT 3 September 2020 Rana Foroohar is Global Business Columnist and an Associate Editor at the Financial Times, based in New York.  She is also CNN’s global economic analyst

 A  loss temporarily paid for by a loan is still a loss and the erosion of corporate capital a danger to the economy.  A large number of undercapitalised companies will hold back Europe’s economic performance  Martin Sandbu FT 8 September 2020

 SvD 6 September 2020 Maria Landeborn är  inte orolig för något större börsfall i höst – trots de starka uppgångarna. Maria Landeborn, sparekonom och aktiestrateg på Danske Bank. SvD 13 augusti 2020 Carl Hammer, a strategist at Scandinavian bank SEB while tech company shares had exhibited swings reminiscent of the end of the 1990s dotcom boom, the outlook for equities remained positive. FT 4 September 2020 "Nu har det vänt" - Ha is i magen"

Juryn består av Aftonbladets kulturredaktion. Han började på Journalisthögskolan i Göteborg 1975, gick ut 1977.  Han uppskattar att cirka 80 procent av studenterna där, inklusive han själv, var vad han kallar världsförbättrare.   2006 fick han Gerard Bonniers stipendium för kulturjournalistik Aftonbladet 8 september 2020 - Det skulle knappast utgöra en höjdpunkt i mitt liv om mina barn under en period flirtade med vit maktmusik (jag flirtade som tonåring med Stalin, känns sådär idag), eller började hårdplugga Vakttornet - men kommer de hem och säger att Bingo Rimér från och med nu är deras främsta förebild, ja då skulle jag antingen få läggas in, eller troligare: Barnen skickas på brittiskt internat. DN 8 april 2007

It is hard to believe that government bonds yielding little or nothing are not a hostage to fortune when central banks are working overtime to generate higher inflation.  John Plender FT 3 September 2020

The currency has risen from $1.06 against the dollar at its March low to briefly top $1.20 last week.  “It’s one thing for Lagarde to talk the euro down this week, but it’s less clear what they can actually do.” FT 8 September 2020 Euron spricker när dollarn faller   Rolf Englund, Nya Wermlands-Tidningen 8/1 2001 https://www.internetional.se/emurolf.html#sprickerfaller