Englund

The UK has had six prime ministers in the past 10 years and is about to anoint a seventh without scrutiny, with each premiership ending in humiliation. Keir Starmer entering 10 Downing Street as the new  Labour Prime Minister 5th July 2024 The country is pioneering a new form of rule called "government by emotional spasm", where politicians are fixated on and then quickly discarded in favor of new ones. This system is alarming because it is incompatible with good government, requiring consistent policies and effective rule, but instead leads to short-lived enthusiasm followed by long-term disappointment and disintegration.  Brexit bears some of the blame for this. It was the ultimate emotional spasm — a revolt against the status quo in the name of national identity and giving the establishment a kicking.  Adrian Wooldridge Bloomberg June 25, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-25/starmer-burnham-britain-is-a-victim-of-government-by-emotional-spasm ...

  Det är under närmast kuppartade former som Andy Burnham, borgmästare i Manchester, nu tar ytterligare ett steg mot att utmana Keir Starmer om premiärministerposten.  Vinsten innebär att han tar en plats i det brittiska parlamentet – något han som borgmästare inte haft men som i praktiken krävs för att bli partiledare och premiärminister. Den tidigare parlamentsledamoten från Makerfield lämnade för några veckor sedan sin post i syfte att kratta manegen för Burnham. SvD 19 juni 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/n14kkB/anyd-burnham-kan-utmana-starmer-sa-kan-han-ta-makten We shouldn’t overlook what the Makerfield by-election means for Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage.  The by-election result may be the moment that Reform UK's march to power is arrested, as the party failed to win despite leading every opinion poll since April 2025. If, as seems possible, this is the moment that the hard-right populist party’s march to power is arrested, that would ultimately be just as histori...

Keir Starmer says Labour should "pull together" following Andy Burnham's win in the Makerfield by-election. In a call with Labour staff, the PM warns against "turning on each other and tearing apart our party and our movement" BBC 19 June 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c3928mlyle8t Allan Monks at JP Morgan said: “We see a high risk that he would consider a change to the fiscal rules, despite appearing to rule this out in recent weeks.” This would risk delaying interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, which it expects to resume next year. Telegraph 19 June 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/19/pound-burnham-gilts-bond-markets-borrowing-costs-ftse-100/ MMT Statens underskott är ditt överskott https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/statens-underskott-ar-ditt-overskott.html Regeringen kritiseras av Riksrevisionen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/regeringen-kritiseras-av-riksrevisionen.html

Trump Cancels Iran Strikes, Says Tehran Has ‘Approved’ Talks President says Tehran’s leadership and other parties are negotiating a deal to end the conflict approved ‘discussions and points’ https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-new-strikes-on-iran-says-u-s-will-seize-its-oil-and-gas-markets-38996e77 Donald Trumps besked om att ställa in de planerade anfallen mot Iran möttes av glädjeskutt på de ledande indexen på Wall Street.  Vid 21.30-tiden uppgav Donald Trump vid Vita huset att USA ”just nått en fantastisk uppgörelse om kriget med Iran, och väntar på att dokumenten ska färdigställas”, skriver Bloomberg. ”Vi bör vara klara under de närmaste dagarna. Sannolikt blir det ett undertecknande, kanske i Europa”, https://www.di.se/live/breda-uppgangar-efter-trumps-utspel-oracle-mot-strommen/ Presidenten skriver att USA ska slå till hårt mot Iran under natten och att man ”vid någon tidpunkt” ska ta över ön Kharg, som har beskrivits som en viktig del av Irans oljeexport. h...

Nine decades ago, George Orwell spent several months living among the mining communities around the bleak, impoverished town of Wigan.  In two weeks, a special election taking place in the same corner of northwest England could determine the course of British history for decades to come. When I visited on a squally day last week, obviously much had changed since Orwell’s time, yet the arguments playing out ahead of the June 18 by-election in the Makerfield constituency bear striking similarities to those set out in his seminal work, The Road to Wigan Pier.  A special election is taking place in the Makerfield constituency in northwest England, which could determine the course of British history for decades to come. The area's voters have a choice between electing Andy Burnham, the popular mayor of Manchester, to Parliament  or voting for the populist Reform UK party, which seeks to exploit racial division and blame immigration for the north's woes. The election is seen as...

Bosses at the time told the stock market, “We don’t make cars, we make dreams”, a nod to their belief that Aston Martin was more like a luxury goods producer in the mould of a Gucci, Burberry or LVMH than a boring old carmaker.  Sean Connery with an Aston Martin DB5 in 1964.  His character James Bond is perhaps the brand’s most famous customer  Chinese car giant Geely among Aston Martin’s three biggest shareholders. Though Geely has received plaudits for its careful stewardship of Swedish car-making royalty Volvo, its ownership of UK-based Lotus sports cars has been less successful, and has resulted in some of its models being made at a factory in Wuhan. Telegraph 10 May 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/10/aston-martin-could-soon-become-chinese/ Daniel Craig Launches New Range for Byd Denza https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nG29NgOqV7s 1965 Världshistoriens bästa år https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/1965-varldshistoriens-basta-ar.html

Medierna och det politiska etablissemanget beskriver Reform UK som högerpopulistiskt.  Etiketten fungerar som ett språkligt verktyg som förskjuter fokus från sakfrågor till värdering och placerar politiska motståndare utanför det legitima samtalet.  Därmed formas både opinionen och gränserna för det offentliga språket. Dick Holmgren Epoch Times 10 maj 2026 https://www.epochtimes.se/nar-orden-tappar-kraft-och-verkligheten-segrar

In rich and established democracies, what people want from life goes up until no conceivable government can provide it.  Notice that one of the few major western countries to have a popular leader right now is Spain. It is a place with recent memories of dictatorship.   Low expectations, born of a low starting point, is most of the trick to happiness.  Sir Keir Starmer. No UK leader has collapsed from landslide-winner to national joke with such speed.  The trouble is that, if I am right, almost nothing can be done.  Britain cannot choose to have a Franco in its recent past to make it grateful for a well-meaning plodder /someone who works slowly and continuously, but without imagination, enthusiasm, or interest/   like Starmer. Janan Ganesh Financial Times 9 May 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/14152ab1-864d-4ff7-8524-afc7b08821b3?syn-25a6b1a6=1

 Jamie Dimon, chef för  JP Morgan varnar för ny inflationsvåg Även om han under sin karriär har suttit mitt i en rad kriser, tvekar han inte om sin bedömning av de samlade riskerna i världen just nu. ”Det är den högsta nivån som jag någonsin har sett”, säger han. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/jamie-dimon-chef-for-jp-morgan-varnar.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-07/why-private-credit-is-facing-its-biggest-test-yet-video Förnyad oro i Mellanöstern sänker Asienbörserna inför eftermiddagens amerikanska jobbsiffra. Även Europaterminerna pekar mot en röd öppning. DI 8 maj 2026, 06:39 https://www.di.se/live/morgonkoll-sma-rorelser-i-asien-trots-skakig-vapenvila/ Deppigt slut på börsveckan https://www.di.se/live/deppigt-slut-pa-borsveckan-silex-rusade-vidare/ Bubblespotting is a lot harder than it seems. It’s easy to misinterpret overpricing for part of the market as an indication that everything is a bubble.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/...

  Finland Is Ready for Russia. Is Anyone Else? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-opinion-finland-is-ready-russia-arctic/?srnd=phx-opinion US Waits for Iran’s Peace Deal Response as Israel Hits Lebanon https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/us-iran-deliberate-peace-deal-with-nuclear-breakthrough-distant Markets care far more about the Strait than Iran’s nuclear program. John Authers boomberg May 7, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-07/oil-and-stocks-depend-on-how-serious-trump-deal-is President Trump’s advisers are worried that Republicans  will pay a political price for the rising fuel costs. Many of those advisers are eager to end the war in hopes that prices  will begin moderating before November’s midterm elections. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/jet-fuel-prices-are-spiking-and-trumps-advisers-are-worried-b0932f3c Demokratins seger och Kris 2,0 Olof Petersson Börsen tyngs – Saab leder nedgångarna 7 maj 2026, 15:57 h...

Polls suggest three of the four nations that make up the UK will be ruled by separatist parties dedicated to the breakup of the union. The breakup of the union of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. The success of nationalist parties, combined with the rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK, could mark a dangerous moment for the United Kingdom and potentially lead to its balkanization. The process has already begun.  Sinn Fein, political wing of the now defunct Irish Republican Army, has been the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly since 2022. In elections this week, the Scottish National Party is looking to extend its majority in the country’s devolved parliament and  Plaid Cymru is hoping to snatch Wales from the UK’s ruling Labour Party.  Both may see a mandate to begin the process of departure. But it’s not at all clear this is what voters want.  On recent visits to big cities in each of the four UK nations I encountered people who wanted to admin...

Badenoch, the combative Conservative leader.  In their worst-ever by-election result, the Tories lost more than 75% of voters who backed them in the 2024 general election. They won less than 2% of the vote, and lost the deposit they paid to enter the contest. The 2024 general election was the Conservatives’ worst result in their almost 200-year existence, but it was also the biggest rejection of a sitting government in British electoral history, the largest fall in vote share since the Great Reform Act of 1832 shaped the modern electoral system.  0 If the Conservatives really are finished, who is to blame? Enoch Powell, almost three decades before Margaret Thatcher, Powell advocated an aggressive restructuring of Britain’s economy through privatization of national industries, devotion to free trade, and control of the money supply. He opposed Britain joining Europe, long before it did so, and he was vehemently anti-immigration.  These three issues would remake the party —...

  What If the Strait of Hormuz Was the English Channel? Here’s a thought experiment. Britain votes to “take back control” by leaving the European Union. Then it announces that all ships passing through the English Channel must pay a toll.  To enforce the charge on the 600 ships that cross the narrow waterway each day, it stations missile launchers on the white cliffs of Dover.  Ships at anchor in Dover and Folkestone stand ready to lay mines in the Channel. The Royal Navy intercepts fare-dodgers with speedboats and drones. As the howls of protest amplify, the British government offers to share the proceeds with the French authorities on the other side. Amid the fog that surrounds the US-Iran ceasefire deal, Tehran is asserting the principle that it can exert control and levy charges over shipping in the Strait.  Entering this weekend’s negotiations, that appears to have been tacitly accepted.  Global capital markets are OK with this.  Even as it grew steadi...

  Decades-old European regulations incorporated into UK law before Brexit mean only preserves made from citrus fruits can be sold as "marmalade" in shops, with other kinds of fruit spread named "jam" or equivalent terms in other languages. It is a product of British lobbying in the 1970s for a special commercial status for marmalade cut from bitter Seville oranges, a concoction that has become strongly associated with Britain around the world thanks to Paddington Bear. Now Brussels has updated its rules after the UK's departure, allowing all EU countries to permit non-citrus spreads to be marketed as "marmalade" from June. BBC 3 April 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e53x475qjo Paddington Bear är en fiktiv, mycket brittisk barnboksbjörn – en artig, marmeladälskande björn från ”mörkaste Peru” som tas om hand av familjen Brown efter att de hittar honom på Paddington Station i London. Figuren skapades av den brittiske författaren Michael Bond och ...

The tragic tale of Harold, the king who lost England to William the Conqueror in an infamous battle, still looms large in British popular culture. But that story may need a reset, according to new research. “1066 is still one of the few dates that virtually everyone knows,” said Rory Naismith, a professor of early medieval English history at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom who wasn’t involved in the research.  “It is a watershed in English history, when one political regime was defeated and very soon replaced by another, with huge consequences for the cultural and institutional identity of the kingdom. The developments of 1066 are therefore crucial to understanding everything that came after.” The story of the dramatic overland march was largely a Victorian interpretation that had stuck The new interpretation shows that King Harold was a competent commander, Licence said, not reckless and impulsive: “I think it was a coin toss, really. It could have been William t...

 This should be one of Labour’s safest constituencies. It won the seat with more than half the vote in the general election just 18 months ago. But it finds itself squeezed by populists on the Green left and anti-immigrant right. Manchester University’s Rob Ford, a political scientist, says Labour is now walking in the electoral valley of death. The threat is indeed existential.  In Gorton and Denton, Labour was pushed to a miserable third, losing white working-class voters to Reform and students, graduates and Muslims to the avowedly socialist Greens.  All these groups were the bedrock of its 2024 victory. And the outcome wasn’t close.  Starmer’s real failure was articulated by Spencer in her acceptance speech.  “Working hard used to get you something,” she said. “It got you a house, a nice life, holidays… But now, working hard, what does that get you?” One glimmer of light for Labour is that this was also a bad night for Reform. Rosa Prince Bloomberg February ...