Covid monetary and fiscal stimulus is being withdrawn just as the global economy slows.
Nomura calls it China’s “Volcker Moment”, a deliberate purging of rampant excesses that can no longer be delayed.
... the greater danger ahead is “Japanification” and a relapse into secular stagnation may win the next round.
We know in hindsight that the US economy went into recession in November 2007 almost a year before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but the Federal Reserve had no idea at the time.
Shiller price/earnings ratio on Wall Street currently at a record 38 times. The pre-Lehman peak in late 2007 was 27.
... stick to the classic: three-month US Treasuries. This is where Warren Buffett has parked $113bn, waiting to pounce after an equity correction. The dollar always spikes in a big global sell-off.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 19 October 2021