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The econometrics that dominates economic projections deals exclusively with output and inflation in the first system. But it’s in the price system for assets where where stability breeds instability and crisis. Creditwritedownsdcom 19 March 2018

Zero interest rates are not doing enough to stimulate flagging economies, while negative rates, by destroying the profitability of the banking system, may well do more harm than good.  Matthew Lynn, Telegraph 22 Feb 2016

Savings is larger than Investments, ex ante. So we have ZIRP and NIRP. Savings glut? Perhaps I is too small? Could explain Swedish and German trade surplus?

Each year since about 2005, forecasters have been predicting a rise in corporate earnings, in GDP, in inflation, in interest rates—in basically all of the vital growth metrics – that is substantially higher than what subsequently occurred.  And I’m talking about every forecaster: the IMF, World Bank, Fed, ECB, OECD, and CBO, along with surveys of business economists…. http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox/the-big-picture Economic theory discredited http://www.internetional.se/aztopics.htm#economictheory

Rational expectations. Ha. Romer roots the sorry state of academic macroeconomics in a battle between Robert Lucas and Thomas Sargent Martin Sandbu, FT 17 Augusti 2015 For months, Paul Romer, the economics professor, has been on a crusade against what he calls “mathiness”, by which he means deliberately abstruse use of mathematics to camouflage political arguments by economists.  News För en yngre generation som inte förstår det här med den ständiga vesslan finns här en länk till Ture Sventon .

FT 14 December 2012   For 20 years now, central bankers have targeted inflation alone. A quiet revolution is sweeping over central banks.   The past five years have led central banks to a revolutionary situation.  Fed said it would keep interest rates close to zero until the US unemployment rate falls below 6.5 per cent.    A day earlier, Mark Carney, soon-to-be governor of the Bank of England, became the most senior central banker to praise an even more radical policy: targeting the level of nominal gross domestic product. People have been known to bet on when Samuel Brittan would write his next column on nominal GDP targeting Did inflation targeting fail?  Central banks have mostly escaped blame for the crisis.  How can it have gone so wrong?   Martin Wolf, Financial Times, May 5 2009 Read all about it - here

Does this have something to do with the debt ceiling? http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/21/fiscal-cliff-for-dummies-bush-tax-cuts-sequester-more-explained.html

Masters of Money is a three part BBC Documentary (2012). Stephanie begins by looking at John Maynard Keynes. Many argue only Winston Churchill had a greater impact on British life than Keynes over the last century.  Even today his ideas remain crucial to one of the most important debates of our time: how can we escape from the economic crisis? Should governments borrow and spend their way out of trouble or slash spending and reduce the national debt? With contributions from some of the world's leading economic thinkers including a Nobel laureate and the governor of the Bank of England, Stephanie Flanders argues Keynes has never been more relevant or controversial than now.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7WDzL1hjqQ

In the euro area as a whole, the amount of credit outstanding has fallen to levels lower than they were a year ago, according to figures released last week by the European Central Bank. In some countries within the euro zone, including Italy and Spain, credit is falling at a faster rate now than it did during the first crisis. In Europe, a Repeat of the Credit Crisis - NYTimes.com

U.S. employers added 171,000 jobs in October and hiring was stronger over the previous two months than first thought. The unemployment rate inched up to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent in September because the work force grew. The rate ticked up because more people without jobs started looking for work. The government only counts people as unemployed if they are actively searching. Unemployment Report: Final Fodder for Election - U.S. Election 2012 - CNBC

There was a time, not that long ago, when it was the economy that drove asset prices such as equity and real estate valuations. Today, the causation is viewed, even in policy circles, as running in the opposite direction. It is asset prices that now drive the economy. When markets drive the economy, cash flow is king - FT.com A stock market bubble exists when the value of stocks has more impact on the economy than the economy has on the value of stocks. John H. Makin AEI, Economic Outlook, November, 2000-11-09  

Skattepolitik och samhällsfilosofi: Kreditexpansionen ökade penningmängden med 6 procent årligen under 30 år i USA

Lenders have welcomed the financial regulator’s new “common sense” rules on mortgages that will require the industry to check borrowers can afford to repay their debt. New mortgage rules will affect as many as one million borrowers - Telegraph Se även http://www.internetional.se/banks.htm

Norge kan vara på väg att bygga upp en farlig fastighetsbubbla precis som Irland och Spanien tidigare har gjort rapporterar CNBC. Huspriserna i Norge har stigit med nästan 30 procent sedan 2006.   Den norska uppgången följer exakt det mönster som tidigare bubblor har gjort i andra länder som Japan, USA och Irland.  Det skriver Bank of New York i en färsk rapport.   Dagens Industri 19 oktober 2012 Norway's house price rise has been so dramatic that the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco wrote a paper on the subject in June that made parallels between the lead up to the U.S. housing crisis and the “irrationally exuberant bubble” of Norway’s present boom. Written by an advisor to Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) Marius Jurgilas and San Francisco Fed’s senior economist Kevin Lansing, the paper stated that Norwegian property prices are currently 125 percent of the historic price-to-income ratio and around 170 percent of the historic price-to-rent ratio — a full 5...

http://www.internetional.se/emufldt.html

The "fiscal multiplier" is not the hallowed 0.5 assumed by every finance ministry in Europe. The awful evidence since the global bubble burst in 2008-2009 is that the multiplier is between 0.9 and 1.7, or even higher for EMU's crucifixion belt. The model constructed over the long boom years -- and largely drawn from isolated cases, each able to export its way out of trouble -- is dangerously wrong in a 1930s-style excess savings crisis with much of the world is slump. Steen Jakobsen from Saxo Bank says the IMF's mea culpa is the "biggest financial story of the year". Indeed it is. The authorities have repeated the blunders of the Great Depression, but with fewer excuses. The IMF has now called for a change of course. The Greco-Latins should be given more time to cut their deficits. The AAA creditor bloc should stop cutting altogether until the eurozone is off the reefs. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, 14 Oct 2012 It...

The Teuto-Calvinists believe that the fiscal multiplier is around 0.5 The entire EU austerity plan is based on a false premise. This disastrous error is now clear beyond any reasonable doubt.   The Teuto-Calvinists believe – or profess to believe, since much of their dogma is national self-interest dressed up as theory – that the fiscal multiplier is around 0.5. That is to say, fiscal retrenchment worth 1pc of GDP will cut output by half as much, or around 0.5pc over two years. There is pain, but at least there is gain. This is based on the IMF's analysis of fiscal crises over the decades. Well, it has not worked out like that. Ireland has contracted at nearly seven times the speed, Spain four times, and Greece three times. Here is a table put together by Jean-Michel Six from S&P using IMF data. The multiplier is nearer 2.0 for part of the Club Med bloc. So what went wrong? It is blindingly obvious. The IMF data – and indeed the more extr...

Throughout history monetary experiments have shown a nasty tendency to blow up. I repeat: this experiment is vast. John Plender, Financial Times 25 September 2012

By analyzing genetic sequence variation patterns in different populations around the world, three teams of scientists from Wake Forest Baptist, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, demonstrated that a critical genetic variant arose in a key gene cluster on chromosome 11, known as the fatty acid desaturase cluster or FADS, more than 85,000 years ago.  This variation would have allowed early humans to convert plant-based polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) to brain PUFAs necessary for increased brain size, complexity and function.  The FADS cluster plays a critical role in determining how effectively medium-chain PUFAs found in plants are converted to the long-chain PUFAs found in the brain. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/09/120919190100.htm Tänk vad dom kan, dagens medicinmän och kvinnor... Till skillnad från oss ekonomer som numera framstår som inkompetenta deltagare i en under...

Now we have two of the most important central banks, that of the U.S. (the Federal Reserve) and in Europe (the ECB) having committed to open-ended, limitless QE.  The Trouble with Printing Money QE3 reflects a colossal failure to address our predicament Chris Martenson, September 18, 2012