Englund

 Much of the US is waking up to below freezing temperatures on Monday morning, with some of the coldest conditions expected in Kansas, while the Washington DC area is awaiting unusually heavy snowfall. Forecasters say the extreme weather - named Storm Blair - is being caused by the polar vortex, an area of cold air that circulates around the Arctic. A state of emergency has been declared in of Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, Arkansas and parts of New Jersey. BBC 6 January 2025 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0kvlkvzdgzo Polar vortex https://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/weather/weather-and-climate-from-a-to-z/polar-vortex.html “The jet stream causes all of our weather” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-jet-stream-causes-all-of-our-weather.html

  More than 60 million people were under heat advisory warnings early Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.  Temperatures are expected to creep up into the weekend as the so-called heat dome intensifies  A heat dome occurs when high-pressure atmospheric conditions trap heat over an area, creating a “dome” of stagnant, hot air. Residents in large metropolitan areas including Chicago, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Detroit, Philadelphia, Boston and New York City were warned to expect extreme heat The latest heat wave follows record-breaking temperatures in parts of California and the Southwest earlier this month Wall Street Journal 18 June 2024 https://www.wsj.com/us-news/climate-environment/millions-brace-for-dangerous-heat-wave-record-breaking-temperatures-ee712c33 Around 270 million people in the US will experience temperatures  at or above 90 degrees = 32 grader C  this week as an impressive heat dome parks over the eastern US. Temperatures soared 15 t...

  https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream

  Jetströmmen snurrar året om, det är den som ger upphov till, och styr låg- och högtrycken som ger oss vårt väder här i norr. Den utgör också gränsen mellan den sydliga, varma luften och den nordliga, arktiska och kyliga luften. Vissa år håller den sig söder om oss, då blir somrarna kyliga och regniga och vintrarna kalla. Sådär som tumregel. Andra år löper jetströmmen norr om oss, som ifjol vintras till exempel. Då har vi mildväder som dominerar. Jetströmmen är inte en helt och hållet rund karusell. Den slingrar och vrider sig fram och tillbaka, upp och ned, som en enorm flod av luft med sina krökar och krumbukter. Eller som en drucken orm. Ovanpå den här karusellen finns som sagt en annan karusell. Uppe i stratosfären. Den så kallade stratosfäriska polarvirveln. Den uppstår bara under vintermånaderna, och till skillnad från jetströmmen som slingrar sig under den, är den rätt så cirkelformad. Och de två strömmarna, de två karusellerna, de påverkar varandra. Störningar i den ena le...

Det diskonterade nuvärdet av aktiernas framtida utdelningar måste räknas om utifall civilisationen går under runt 2050.   Englund blogg 23 July 2023 It’s clean tech or catastrophe When it comes to climate, cheap green tech is our only hope. Simon Kuper FT 20 July 2023 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/07/its-clean-tech-or-catastrophe.html Extreme Heat, Weather Conditions Attributed to Stagnant Jet Stream Stagnant jet stream keeps high, low pressure systems stuck. ‘Devastating’ heat domes across the globe are connected https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/07/extreme-heat-weather-conditions.html

  Stagnant jet stream keeps high, low pressure systems stuck.  ‘Devastating’ heat domes across the globe are connected It’s no coincidence that  extreme heat  is engulfing huge swaths of Asia, Europe and North America all at the same time.  But right now, the carousel isn’t moving. It’s been cemented in place for weeks, and forecasts show it’s going to stay that way. Blame the jet stream — the “meandering river of wind that encircles the globe and creates our weather,” as climate scientist  Jennifer Francis  puts it. Meanwhile, the low pressure systems are wreaking their own havoc as rains pour down.  In India, months of blistering heat has given way to a deluge that has led to widespread damage. Floods are threatening Beijing and Tianjin in China, and two weekends in a row have brought deadly flooding to the US Northeast. Bloomberg 20 July 2023 Englund: Several factors are contributing to the record heat this summer (englundmacro.blogspot.com) C...

 ... and jet streams are causing deadly storms like the ones in Vermont this month to move slowly. Meteorologists say last month was the hottest June on record and 2023 could be the hottest year ever if July’s record temperatures continue, straining businesses and threatening power grids. WSJ 19 July 2023 https://www.wsj.com/articles/extreme-heat-waves-across-the-world-photos-7cc1544d Jet stream pattern and ‘heat domes’ fuel soaring temperatures around globe  The fast-moving band of air that is a key driver of global weather systems has been locked for weeks in a pattern characterised by five large U-bend shapes, dubbed “wavenumber 5”. Scientists say such a pattern was also behind the extreme weather seen around seen the world last year. FT 20 July 2023  https://www.ft.com/content/25974611-f2b4-4a32-9e21-02a102895b6c Global Heat Map: Tracking Extreme Heat Across Europe and Asia - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Extreme summer heat will become the new normal The record-br...

 The fast-moving bands of air that blow from west to east divide the cold air from the polar regions from the warmer air from the tropics, and typically occur in the mid-latitudes. However, the jet stream can develop deep waves, which push colder air southwards and warmer air northwards. FT 9 January 2023 https://www.ft.com/content/81af6ef5-e241-4496-ac36-38d3fcfe0956  The southern Pacific Ocean locked in its La Niña phase for three winters  Its long duration is a problem. The large, persistent mass of cold air and high pressure influences wind patterns known as jet streams across the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.  The Economist 18 November 2022 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-southern-pacific-ocean-locked-in.html Europe’s String of Extreme Heat Waves Linked to Jet Stream Bloomberg 5 July 2022 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/07/europes-string-of-extreme-heat-waves.html

That is unusual, and dangerous Its long duration is a problem. The large, persistent mass of cold air and high pressure influences wind patterns known as jet streams across the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.  Where jet streams that blow over land from the ocean are diverted, that land loses moisture and can suffer from drought. The land to which that jet stream is diverted gets more moisture, and can be flooded. Eventually stronger winds or ocean currents nudge the system out of El Niño and back into the neutral phase. If stronger winds persist they can lock the system into an opposite phase: La Niña.  This is what enso looked like in 2022. The Economist 18 November 2022 https://www.economist.com/interactive/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/the-weather-system-that-influences-the-world The climate system could be less stable than forecast: there may be tipping points Corinne Le Quéré, one of the world’s experts on global emissions. ‘Could we just adapt to climate change? The answer is...

 How Spain is coping with the heat https://www.dw.com/en/spain-coping-with-the-heat/a-62826918 På sina resor han förnam, hur väl försynens nåd reglerat,  som floder överallt placerat där stora städer stryka fram. - Falstaff, fakir skrifter av Axel Wallengren. From the Rhine to the Tigris Global warming disturbs the jet and gulf streams that used to reliably circulate our atmosphere and oceans. Lake Mead — where the Hoover Dam blocks whatever remains of the Colorado River — is drying into a puddle and displaying everything from sunken boats to dead bodies. As these rivers, from the Yangtze to the Colorado, slowly evaporate — their water molecules destined to inundate islets or coastlines elsewhere in the world — the emphasis among scientists and policymakers is shifting to “adaptation.”  We’ll certainly need a lot of that.  Andreas Kluth Bloomberg 17 augusti 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-17/rhine-tigris-river-water-levels-are-grave-climate-ch...

The dynamics of the heat are similar to last year, with a high-pressure ridge forcing the jet stream north. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-28/heat-wave-in-oregon-washington-impossible-without-global-warming Bit of jet stream ‘pumping hot air northwards’ BBC 17th July 2022 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/07/bit-of-jet-stream-pumping-hot-air.html

BBC 17th July 2022 Europe heatwave: Extreme temperatures grip region - BBC Weather How is the jet stream connected to simultaneous heatwaves across the globe? Scientists are racing to understand the changing shape of the air currents “The jet stream is like a conveyor belt, delivering storms to us one after the other.” It can also generate heatwaves when it forms into a U-bend shape, called an “omega block” because it resembles the shape of the Greek letter omega. Right now, a global pattern of five big waves is circling the world, leading to simultaneous heatwaves across continents. This pattern, known as wavenumber 5, can persist for weeks, causing hot areas to stay hot for a long time. Leslie Hook FT 21 July 2022 https://www.ft.com/content/bb9ecca3-c914-489d-af7d-06df6010d1ea Leslie Hook reports from ​London on carbon, the environment and the renewable energy transition worldwide. ​Her previous roles at the FT include San​ ​Francisco correspondent, Lex writer and Beijing corresponde...

Heat waves in Europe have increased three to four times faster than elsewhere, according to new research. The extreme heat in Spain, the UK and France this summer was made worse by changes in the jet stream, the strong westerly winds that blow above the planet’s surface, highlighting another way in which global warming could be altering our climate. Read more: Jet Stream Is Key Link in Climate Disasters https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-22/how-climate-change-impacts-the-jet-stream-and-your-weather Western Europe is a heat wave hotspot, with extreme high-temperature events rising three to four times faster than other northern latitudes over the past 42 years, according to a paper published in Nature Communications by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.  The weather was linked for the first time to the splitting of the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere, which has become more common. Bloomberg 5 July 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news...

När AO har ett positivt värde ligger jetströmmen (en kraftig vind på hög höjd) ofta i ett nordligare läge  då det är allmänt lågtrycksbetonat vid nordpolen.  När AO är negativ, ligger jetströmmen ofta sydligare till följd av att högtryck dominerar över nordpolen. Hur pass stark eller svag den stratosfäriska polarvirveln är kan påverka vad vi får för väder under vintern https://www.svt.se/vader/det-har-ar-den-stratosfariska-polarvirveln  

Vad vi hittills vet är att jetströmmarna blir alltmer vågiga och slingriga.  Det kan ge upphov till kallare och varmare klimat i vissa områden samt köldknäppar som nyligen skett i Sverige och övriga Skandinavien SvD 14 december 2021 https://www.svd.se/extremvarmen-i-sibirien-nagot-ar-helt-galet The Omega-Shaped Jet Stream Responsible for Europe’s Heatwave https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-omega-shaped-jet-stream-responsible.html

 The North American jet stream forms where warm and cold air meet. In North America, the winds swoop down from Alaska toward the continental U.S. As the jet stream changes shape and location, it can have significant effects on weather, acting like a wall that keeps the region warm to the south and cold to the north. WSJ 11 November 2021 https://www.wsj.com/articles/la-nina-is-coming-to-shape-winter-forecasts-what-to-know-11636666122?mod=hp_lead_pos12 The Omega-Shaped Jet Stream Responsible for Europe’s Heatwave https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-omega-shaped-jet-stream-responsible.html

som cirklar runt Arktis har rubbats av den snabba uppvärmningen. Väderlägen riskerar att låsa fast och ge extrem nederbörd, eller värmeböljor.  Erika Bjerström SvT 9 augusti 2021 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/erika-bjerstrom-2  

The Arctic is nearing the tipping point.   The world's leading polar scientist, Dr. Peter Wadhams, is headed to Greenland to study actual conditions there.  He expects the blue ocean event, when the summer ice melts completely, to occur much sooner than anticipated, probably in the next year or two.   The blue water will absorb more of the sun's heat, further warming our planet, and the Jet Stream, which balances weather in the northern hemisphere, will be disrupted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PJon1u3U5M Väderkartan är konstig (inte som den var förr) Rolf Englund blogg 12 maj 2010 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2010/05/vaderkartan-ar-konstig-inte-som-den-var.html

 Oreskes and her colleagues wrote in a 2012 paper, “core scientific values of objectivity, rationality and dispassion” have led to conservative projections about the impact of climate change, even in IPCC assessments. The short answer is that scientists are divided about whether a more dangerous phase of non-linear change has begun.   FT 28 July 2021              https://www.ft.com/content/3125bee9-73ae-4abf-ac58-615fe8e43396                    

 It feels like we are living through the first vertiginous 15 minutes of a disaster movie, maybe one called “The Day After Tomorrow Was Yesterday.” Crazy storms that used to hit every century now seem quotidian, overwhelming systems that cannot withstand such a battering. As Angela Merkel and President Biden touted a climate and energy partnership on her recent visit here, nature mocked them. While the two leaders had dinner, rains submerged huge swaths of Germany, including medieval towns. “Everything we worried about is happening, and it’s all happening at the high end of projections, even faster than the previous most pessimistic estimates,”  Maureen Dowd Opinion Columnist New York Times 24 July 2021 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/24/opinion/sunday/climate-change-floods-wildfires.html Scientists say the shifting pattern of the jet stream is exacerbating the effects of climate change https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/07/scientists-say-shifting-pattern-of-jet.html Det ä...