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Vitaliy Katsenelson, chief executive officer of Investment Management Associates, says:  I wrote in the past that the AI rollout feels a lot like déjà vu of the 1999 telecom bubble. Today it is also starting to feel like the 1999 bubble is being supersized into something closer to what led to the 2008 financial crisis. This is not a good change. Comparisons with 1999 provided some perverse reassurance. Burst stock market bubbles are in many ways a price of technological innovation as investors balk at trying to price new inventions years into the future.  They didn’t stop canals, railroads, cars, or the internet from remaking the economy, and a stock market selloff needn’t stop the growth of AI. Now, investors are beginning to hear the rhyme with a different bubble — the 2008 collapse of a massive edifice of mortgage-backed credit that caused the Global Financial Crisis Book extract: The Fearful Rise of Markets, Authers   https://www.ft.com/content/6d6ad426-63ac-11df...

Wall Street studsade tillbaka med techjättar i spetsen Bortsett från Apple bjöd indextunga bjässar på kraftiga lyft. Indexbjässarnas rally kompenserade för Apples ras på 7,4 procent. https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-studsade-tillbaka-med-techjattar-i-spetsen/ Färska intradagsrekord för både OMXSPI och OMXS30. Nya rekordkurser för flera klassiska storbolag gav stöd åt uppgångarna. https://www.di.se/live/borsen-tar-helg-med-nya-rekord/ Apple heads for $460 billion wipeout  MarketWatch July 31, 2026, 9:51 a.m. ET   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-heads-for-460-billion-wipeout-with-its-stock-seeing-worst-post-earnings-drop-in-13-years-a438d16c The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note reached 4.737% in recent trading, its highest intraday level since January 2025. President Donald Trump said the US-led Board of Peace had reached an agreement for Hamas to disarm. Trump said Israel would withdraw from the territory after Hamas's disarmament is completed and an Internatio...

  Real assets — like houses — were being used to secure debt that was then rehypothecated multiple times, partly with derivatives That financial cloud looked impressive. But, like candyfloss, the value of its “real” assets was small — as we discovered when finance imploded. Global household wealth has risen more than fourfold since 2000, dramatically faster than the “real” economy, amid asset-price inflation.  America accounts for $175tn of this; China $75tn. One issue, the Bank for International Settlements said recently,  https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2026e1.htm is that wealth is now so dependent on US stock markets — and US AI exuberance — that “a major equity market correction could have larger macroeconomic consequences today than in the past”. Gillian Tett Financial Times 24 Juy 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/7bcf8215-fd76-4620-bdc3-8c1b0ea13bba?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Cognitive blind spots are undermining our ability to see the world as it is, rather than as we would li...

Både Alphabet och Tesla som släppte rapporter under torsdagskvällen sjönk rejält, likt de ledande amerikanska börserna. Flera läkemedelsbolag och rymdjätten Space X handlades i motsatt riktning. https://www.di.se/live/rod-stangning-pa-wall-street-lakemedelsjattar-trotsar-strommen/ Sent onsdag bekräftade Iran-stödda Houthi-rörelsen att den attackerat två oljetankers i Röda havet, med ballistiska robotar, kryssningsrobotar och drönare. Marknaden reagerade omedelbart. Priset på Nordsjöolja steg till över 96 dollar torsdag morgon. https://www.dagensps.se/varlden/allvarlig-upptrappning-attack-mot-oljetankers-i-roda-havet/ Brentoljan passerade vid 15-tiden 100-dollarsgränsen, efter en uppgång om 6,5 procent under torsdagen. Senaste gången oljepriset var över 100 dollar var den 22 maj. Därefter har priset sjunkit, i takt med att en fred i Mellanöstern såg ut att närma sig. https://www.di.se/live/oljan-pa-100-dollar-borsen-surnar/ RE: Trump är väl inte den som lägger sig platt för islamister. ...

Warsh tapped several former policymakers for the task forces, including former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, who led the UK’s central bank through the 2008-09 financial crisis, and Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India who was noted for his early warnings ahead of the global financial crisis. Bloomberg 9 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-09/fed-s-warsh-names-leadership-for-five-new-task-forces Mervyn King King is good at articulating what’s wrong with the global economy, not so good when it comes to solutions. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/mervyn-king.html Raghuram Rajan Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund notes in a thought-provoking new book, the underlying “fault lines” are still with us. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/jag-har-haft-fel-forut-i-dag-14-juli.html Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the ...

Whose Legacy Was Dimmed by the Financial Crisis.  The ‘maestro’ rivaled the U.S. president for global influence. But his faith in financial markets’ ability to police themselves became an Achilles’ heel. Former colleagues and Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman hailed Greenspan as the greatest central banker of all time when he finished 18½ years as Federal Reserve chairman in 2006.  Just two years later, the financial crisis triggered an austere reappraisal of his record. His view that markets could effectively police themselves became a driving force of regulatory policy in the 1990s and early 2000s. His perceived inclination to stem market panic earned a moniker, the “Greenspan put”—as if the Fed itself was a put option that insured investors against losses.  The Fed cushioned markets after the stock-market crash of 1987 and the 1998 failure of Long-Term Capital Management and played a key role arranging a bailout that followed the Mexican debt crisis of 1994. Greenspan del...

A record level of private-equity investments are stuck in funds limping along past their intended lifespans. Often known as zombie funds. Fund managers haven’t been able to sell their remaining assets.  The net asset value of U.S. private-equity assets stuck in funds at least a decade old reached an all-time high of $348.5 billion at the end of 2025, according to PitchBook data. That is 3.5 times the amount in 2015 and more than 100 times that of 2005. Wall Street Journal 21 July 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-equity-assets-stuck-in-zombie-funds-are-at-a-record-high-4dbd01be Erik Gordon, an American finance professor, posed a pointed question relating to Fool’s Gold, my book about the 2008 financial crisis : should we now feel some déjà vu?  Not because of what is happening with tech stocks nor with Wall Street demands for deregulation. Rather, the issue (once again) is credit ratings.  Before the 2008 crisis, there was a proliferation of financial pro...

  Medlarlandet Pakistan var det första att tillkännage att USA och Iran hade nått en överenskommelse, sent på söndagskvällen svensk tid. ”Båda sidor är överens om ett omedelbart och permanent upphörande av militära operationer på alla fronter, inklusive i Libanon”, skriver Pakistans premiärminister Shehbaz Sharif på X. SvT 15 juni 2026 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/usa-och-iran-overens-om-avtal-hormuzsundet-oppnas Pakistan, a country once isolated by Washington for harboring Osama bin Laden, is assuming a surprisingly prominent position in the multination effort to push the U.S. and Iran toward the negotiating table https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/pakistans-fredsmaklare.html Trumps avtal, väljarna och Irans Revolutionära Garde https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/trumps-avtal-valjarna-och-irans.html Börslyft att vänta: ”Tydliga men behärskade rörelser”. Handeln hos IG Markets indikerar en uppgång på 1,5 procent för Stockholmsbörsen. DI 15 juni 2026, 08:11 h...

”Iran måste gå med på att aldrig ha kärnvapen eller bomber. Hormuzsundet måste omedelbart öppnas, utan avgifter, för obegränsad sjöfartstrafik i båda riktningarna. Alla sjöminor, om det finns några, ska avlägsnas”, inleder han sitt inlägg på Truth Social. Huruvida de båda länderna har kommit överens om något är dock oklart.   DI 29 maj 2026, 17:12 https://www.di.se/live/trump-ska-fatta-ett-slutgiltigt-iranbeslut/ Peggy Noonan, the 1950s and Alan Greenspan   I was seated to the left, with four other nominees for honorary doctorates, the great crowd spilling before us, and I’ll tell you where my thoughts were, far away and far back in Massapequa, Long Island, when I was a child. Oh those old days in the 1950s, when the houses that became part of the great substantial suburbs of today were brand-new.  Their dormers hadn’t been built yet; the lawns hardly had grass; the trees were plants held steady by sticks, a piece of paper attached by wire to the branches: “Appl...

Det får akademiker att blunda för potentiellt samhällsviktig forskning och undvika obekväma slutsatser. En inspirationskälla till detta är sociologiprofessorn Jonathan Coles magistrala bok The Great American University (2009) om de amerikanska spetsuniversiteten, där han hävdar att några av de mest subtila hoten mot forskningens frihet kommer inifrån akademin. En huvudhypotes är att orsaken till dessa blinda fläckar av obeforskade problem förmodligen handlar om en kombination av opportunism och ideologi.  En mera avancerad hypotes är att det kan handla om att forskarkarriären såsom den är upplagd i samhällsvetenskap och humaniora resulterar i olika former av mental blockering. 1. Korruption, särskilt i biståndet. 2. Många pojkars/unga mäns tillkortakommanden i skolan. 3. Den bristande integrationen av invandrare. 4. Jämställdhetens tillkortakommanden.  5. Hedersrelaterat våld och förtryck.  6. Evidensbaserade undervisningsmetoder i skolan.  7. Forskningen om Israel–P...

BNP Paribas shares fell after it disclosed first-quarter credit provisions  It had set aside €922 million. Some of that came from “forward-looking provisions related to the geopolitical environment,” it said. The increasing level of credit provisions highlights how the Iran war and its potential implications are rippling through the European economy.  Net income rose 9% to €3.22 billion ($3.8 billion) for the three months through March, beating analyst estimates. Like many competitors, BNP Paribas notched a strong performance from buying and selling equities in the first quarter, with revenue in the unit increasing to €1.26 billion. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-30/bnp-paribas-beats-on-profit-as-equity-traders-see-revenue-rise The start of the phenomenon has been pinpointed as 9 August 2007 when bad news from French bank BNP Paribas triggered sharp rise in the cost of credit, and made the financial world realise how serious the situation was. https://englundm...

Fed will embrace geoeconomics. This is very notable — particularly given that, a day later, Bessent revealed that the United Arab Emirates and “numerous” other Gulf and Asian countries have asked the US government for dollar swap lines. Trump seems keen to comply. “If I could help them, I would,” he said. And this sends two big messages to markets. Some governments fear there is a real — and rising — risk that the Iran war will create financial instability.   The second message. Back during the global financial crisis of 2008, it was the New York Fed, under Timothy Geithner, that led efforts to calm markets.  Back then it used its own dollar swap lines, since the Fed has permanent arrangements to address short-term strains with five western central banks, and had temporary arrangements with nine more. Bessent is skilled at handling financial markets and has brought a market-savvy team to the Treasury. Bessent says he wants to use swaps to promote American dominance and re...

Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warns U.S. needs an emergency ‘break-the-glass’ plan if Treasury demand collapses The plan should be ‘ready to go’ for ‘when we hit the wall,’ Paulson said. Paulson’s warning comes as investors grow increasingly concerned about the waning appeal of U.S. Treasury debt. Persistent deficits, heavy debt issuance and inflation worries have weighed on longer-term government bonds recently. Paulson said a crisis in the Treasury market would differ in a crucial way from the 2008 financial meltdown, when the U.S. government still had enough fiscal capacity to step in and contain the damage.  This time, instead of centering around the private sector, a Treasury crisis could hamper the government’s ability to finance itself. In 2008, “as bad as it was,” the government had fiscal firepower to address the credit meltdown,”   In a statement Thursday night, the Paulson Institute clarified  that Paulson was “clear that his concerns about the ...

Banks’ soaring exposure to trading firms creating ‘inherent fragility’, warns S&P Large investment banks have become increasingly reliant on markets financing. Trading firms such as Citadel Securities have reshaped financial markets, with their growth fuelled by lending from traditional investment banks that have retreated from making proprietary bets. Banks’ gross exposure to hedge funds and trading firms was in the trillions,  meaning tail risks, which have a low likelihood of occurring but can have a significant impact if they do, were “high”. Financial Times 15 April 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/942b091b-add3-4ffd-911a-6a9d9738f2ea?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Ares limits withdrawals from $10.7bn private credit fund Redemption requests across industry surge as exodus of wealthy individuals accelerates The $623bn investment group said it had capped redemptions from the Ares Strategic Income Fund at 5 per cent — a threshold built into the fund that allows it to limit outflows in any one...

  Surt på Wall Street Fredagens handel avslutas med breda nedgångar. https://www.di.se/live/surt-pa-wall-street-klarna-mot-strommen/ En turbulent börsvecka går mot sitt slut.  Fredagen ser ut att inledas med relativt små rörelser. Victor Hultgren DI 13 mars 2026, 07:49 https://www.di.se/live/avvaktande-oppning-att-vanta-efter-turbulent-vecka/ Börsen stiger mot nollan – EQT och Ericsson lyfter.  Oljepriset fallit till 99 dollar, 103 dollar tidigare under dagen. Victor Hultgren DI 13 mars 2026, 13:16 https://www.di.se/live/borsen-stiger-mot-nollan-eqt-och-ericsson-lyfter/  Nedgången tilltog inför stängning https://www.di.se/live/nedgangen-tilltog-infor-stangning-tungt-fall-i-sandvik/ Cuban president says officials have held talks with the Trump administration  as Havana frees 51 prisoners Wall Street Journal 13 March 2026 https://www.wsj.com/world/cuba-acknowledges-negotiations-with-washington-441b785b There is no light at the end of Cuba’s tunnel.  https://e...