Englund

 What on earth will happen to US economic policy when Donald Trump becomes president? Trump  promised to end inflation. But he is also pledging to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on China and 25 per cent on Mexico and Canada  Then there is the dollar. Trump’s team considers it very overvalued. Bessent might even call for a special G20 meeting” to reproduce “the 1985 Plaza Accord”. Gillian Tett  Financial Times 13 December 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/79708cf0-687d-4134-8cd5-ed99a75f07b2 The president-elect might want a weaker US currency but market forces are pushing in the other direction One moderating factor here could be that markets have already priced in a lot of Trump. The dollar index is already up 6 per cent since late October.  If not, a period of currency diplomacy by social media lies ahead again. Katie Martin  Financial Times 13 December 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/2e48cc8b-56f1-4a0a-a73e-c22f0cf5b7f3 Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar. That Will...

  Donald Trump won a second term in the White House by promising a bonfire of the verities—the truths that wonks in economic and foreign policy circles hold sacred.  Free trade is out, protectionism is in. Worrying about the debt is out, tax cuts are in. The US security guarantee is out, do-it-yourself defense is in. The established order Trump wants to overturn hasn’t covered itself in glory.  Another idea most economists agree on: Big deficits are bad news. The Biden administration is already playing fast and loose with fiscal policy.  The deficit for 2024 is projected to come in close to a nosebleed-inducing 7% of GDP, a consequence of making too much stimulus during the pandemic and failing to rein in spending fast enough after the emergency was over. Bond vigilantes are already punishing Washington for its borrowing excesses. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries almost touched 4.5% in November Pax Americana, paid for with US blood and treasure, has been a defining...