Englund

  Vid ett besök i Göteborg behagade riksbankschef Erik Thedéen skämta. På den politiskt laddade frågan när det vore rätt tid för Sverige att ansluta sig till euron svarade riksbankschefen skämtsamt: ”It’s above my pay grade.” Jag frågade Gemini och fick svaret: Sveriges riksbankschef, Erik Thedéen, har en månadslön på 279 000 kronor. Jag gick till Regeringskansliets site och fick detta svar. - Från den 1 juli 2026 är arvodet för statsministern 211 000  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/riksbankschefen-lon-statsministerns-lon.html Surt på Wall Street    Vid stängning visade breda index S&P 500 en nedgång på 0,8 procent och Dow Jones minus 0,7 procent. Nasdaq ned 0,9 procent. Tioåringen steg till 5,24 procent. https://www.di.se/live/surt-pa-wall-street-meta-foll-tungt/ I det dolda pågår en segdragen krasch för aktier. Det kan låta utmanande med ständigt nya toppnoteringar i en osäker omvärld. Men faktum är att det är börsens normalläge. Om marknaden stiger ...

A perfect storm of wars in Iran and Ukraine, extreme weather and the AI bubble threatens disaster. The Bloomberg commodity index has risen 48pc this year, accelerating in pace and spreading in breadth from energy to industrial metals and grains.  The futures markets are no longer pricing in a quick return to normal, as they were in those first insouciant weeks of the Iran war, when traders still believed in the all-conquering might of the US navy.  Brent futures contracts are over $90 a barrel all the way out to the spring of 2027. The first two horsemen of this “apocalypse” – conquest, war, famine and death in the Book of Revelation – are the twin wars in Iran and Ukraine. The headline price of oil drastically understates the gravity of what is happening. The stress has switched to diesel, petrol and jet fuel, the products that we consume and that matter for inflation.  The diesel “crack spread” in New York has quadrupled to levels never seen before, tantamount to oil at...

  Ebba Busch leder nu förtroendeligan. SvT 9 september 2026 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/valjarnas-fortroende-for-andersson-minskar-busch-i-topp När stenhårda Ebba Busch började prata om att politiken behövde mer ”hjärta” tänkte jag: lycka till. Men även det lappkastet klarade Sveriges skickligaste politiker. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/8-september.html Vänstervridningen på Dagens Nyheter. Hans Bergström Johan Lundberg 2026 Rolf Englund mars 1974. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/vad-galler-invandringspolitiken-har.html Warsh might yet be a good Fed chair. After his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, I am less pessimistic about the prospect than before. Difficult choices — difficult intellectually and politically — lie ahead.  But his speech “In our time” was both clear and sensible — clear on the objectives of policy and sensible on how the Fed should conduct itself. An economy is not a machine, to be manipulated by wise technocrats in accordan...

  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-it-pays-to-stay-invested-no-amount-of-bad-news-could-stop-the-stock-markets-strongest-run-in-more-than-25-years-54ba3f8a Tunga techfall på Wall Street – Klarna rasade 23 procent De ledande indexen på Wall Street stängde på rött för tredje handelsdagen i rad när inflationsoro kylde ner riskaptiten. https://www.di.se/live/tunga-techfall-pa-wall-street-klarna-rasade/ The rise in the US is part of a broader global shift as investors demand more compensation to protect against the risk of persistently high inflation that’s likely to keep short-term interest rates elevated. The movement is also being fueled by a ramp-up of corporate borrowing to fund the artificial-intelligence investment boom and waning demand from traditional buyers of long-dated bonds. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/us-bond-selloff-drives-30-year-yields-to-the-highest-since-2007 Global Bond Slump Sends Long-Term Borrowing Costs to Highest in Decades https://w...

The Sargasso Sea, an elliptical area of the Atlantic around Bermuda, is a model for global markets in the depths of this hot summer. An area of relative calm caused by the space between four major Atlantic currents. As for the obvious geopolitical risks, there is a belief — correct or otherwise — that the market has a handle on them, and that they are less than catastrophic.  Equanimity is a state of psychological stability and composure which is undisturbed by the experience of or exposure to emotions, pain, or other phenomena that may otherwise cause a loss of mental balance.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equanimity Whether markets are right to be this confident is another question. Meanwhile, the greatest risk, also diminished slightly by the slowdown in the recent data, comes from bonds.  But as it stands, Great Earnings + Goldilocks Economic Data + Absence of News = Continued Calm.  Just like eels must leave the Sargasso, this cannot go on indefinitely, but wi...

Central banks may be accidentally subsidizing government borrowing through their efforts to prevent a repeat of past market blowups, and policymakers are starting to worry that anticrisis lending facilities could even be interfering with their own monetary policy. The source of the problem is the switch from central banks being the lender of last resort to, in 2008 and 2020, also being market makers of last resort, ensuring corporate—and government—debt markets keep functioning. During a crisis, support is often essential to prevent a downward spiral that destroys the financial system. But backstopping markets removes a key risk and encourages more borrowing—especially for the hedge funds that now own trillions of dollars of U.S. Treasurys. The scale is extraordinary: The Dallas Fed estimates hedge funds ended last year with $2.4 trillion of Treasurys, up from $600 billion a decade earlier.  Because the profits on each trade are tiny, hedge funds have to leverage as much as 100 tim...

Att USA säljer euro för att stötta den japanska yenen riktar fokus mot landets egna förment riskfria obligationer. USA:s och Japans gemensamma insats för att skicka upp värdet på den japanska yenen.  1985 Plaza Accord. Detta avtal undertecknades på Plaza Hotel i New York efter att USA drivit på för att försvaga dollarn genom att hota med kraftiga importtullar efter att bytesbalansen hade blivit kraftigt negativ och den amerikanska globala konkurrenskraften försvagats. USA fick då igenom en kraftig revalvering av framför allt den japanska yenen och den västtyska D-marken.  På tre år sjönk den amerikanska dollarn med nästan 50 procent mot en handelsvägs korg av andra valutor. RE: När dollarn försvagas går kronan upp. Dollarn kostade drygt fem kronor 1992. Men den kursen skulle försvaras, ansåg Carl Bildt som ville avskaffa kronan och ansluta oss till euron.  Något har hänt med de amerikanska statsobligationerna. Räntan har stadigt tickat uppåt relativt inflationen under lån...

Vitaliy Katsenelson, chief executive officer of Investment Management Associates, says:  I wrote in the past that the AI rollout feels a lot like déjà vu of the 1999 telecom bubble. Today it is also starting to feel like the 1999 bubble is being supersized into something closer to what led to the 2008 financial crisis. This is not a good change. Comparisons with 1999 provided some perverse reassurance. Burst stock market bubbles are in many ways a price of technological innovation as investors balk at trying to price new inventions years into the future.  They didn’t stop canals, railroads, cars, or the internet from remaking the economy, and a stock market selloff needn’t stop the growth of AI. Now, investors are beginning to hear the rhyme with a different bubble — the 2008 collapse of a massive edifice of mortgage-backed credit that caused the Global Financial Crisis Book extract: The Fearful Rise of Markets, Authers   https://www.ft.com/content/6d6ad426-63ac-11df...

One day the bust will be the big one, but for now the pullback in AI-related stocks has been almost completely offset by gains elsewhere The S&P 500 is only 1.6% below its record, and the equal-weighted version—a measure of the average of all stocks in the index—hit a new high this past week. The post-financial-crisis era of easy money has led to repeated booms and busts in small, and sometimes not-so-small, parts of the market in the past 15 years.  Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken. Rolf Englund blogg 5 december 2009 My best guess on the reason for all these bubbles is a mix of easy money, the gambling instinct and hopes for new technology. These are the standard ingredients of bubbles from canals and railroads to the Great British Bicycle Bubble.  But they’ve been on steroids since the 2007-09 financial crisis. Where the money comes from varies—in the 2010s it was...

Wall Street surnar till.   https://www.di.se/live/experter-tunt-fran-fed-wall-street-surnar-till/ Volatilt Wall Street stängde på mörkrött Wall Street såg ut att avsluta på plus efter kvällens räntebesked från Fed. Men med en timmes handel kvar vände indexen tvärt nedåt.  https://www.di.se/live/volatilt-wall-street-stangde-pa-morkrott/ The Most Radical Plane Design Since the Concorde   https://www.wsj.com/business/could-the-most-radical-plane-design-since-the-concorde-take-on-boeing-abd9a6ce https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/iran-attacks-us-bases-and-saudi-arabia-joins-strikes-in-iraq USA:s president Donald Trump säger att USA kommer att genomföra militära angrepp mot Iran som svar på attacker mot amerikanska mål i Jordanien, rapporterar Fox News. DI 29 juli 2026, 14:28 https://www.di.se/nyheter/trump-usa-kommer-att-sla-till-mot-iran/ Kevin Warsh betonade han att inflationsmålet inte kommer att justeras. ”Låt mig upprepa. Det finns inget flexibe...

En stor förklaring till återhämtningen på tisdagen var att flera indextunga aktier som Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft och Apple stängde på plus. https://www.di.se/live/breda-uppgangar-kompenserade-ai-raset-i-usa/ China river back from the brink.  Yangtze, running 6,300km from the Tibetan plateau to Shanghai. The heart of the Yangtze’s rescue package was a ten-year commercial fishing ban. Xi Jinping, China’s supreme leader, personally champions it, and in recent years local officials’ promotion prospects have been tied to environmental metrics. Officials closed or relocated thousands of chemical factories near its banks. They planted forests on its upper reaches to bind the soil together, so less slipped into the water. Ever since the 1950s the government has had a love of dams, to control floods and generate hydroelectricity. A dozen gigantic ones have been built on the Yangtze, including the Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest, as well as thousands of smaller ones elsewhere in the ...