Englund

  Den ena hedgefonden efter den andra drar öronen åt sig, när aktiemarknaden bara tycks fortsätta upp. Just björnarna är det värt att prata om. Såhär 250 år senare hävdar nämligen många att de är utrotningshotade på finansmarknaden.  Och kan man ha en kapitalism som bara består av tjurar? Samtidigt som de flesta andra av jordens stora ekonomier har stagnerat har den amerikanska nämligen fortsatt rusa. Trots den amerikanska centralbankens räntehöjningar har tillväxten ökat, arbetsmarknaden varit stark och konsumenterna fortsatt shoppa.  Någon måste vara misstänksam, paranoid och lagd åt att ställa jobbiga frågor. Problemet är att nästan ingen har råd med detta längre. 1984 räddade USA sin första stora bank och 1987 började den amerikanska centralbanken öppet hålla börsen under armarna vid en kris. Sedan dess har det bara blivit värre. Börsen går ju bara upp. Men den större frågan är om den här typen av politiska garantier (implicita eller konkreta) är särskilt sunda i en m...

  U.S. technology stock crash.  The Magnificent 7 tech stocks now make up 33% of the S&P 500  by market cap, and with valuations already high, a return to the long-term price/earnings average alone would mean a 30% selloff Our economics team’s simulations suggest that a large equity correction, via the wealth effect, could spark a recession in the U.S.,” says Hjort and his colleagues. A trigger for gray swan is tariff and immigration policies sparking higher inflation, forcing Fed rate hikes.  Gray swans, the strategists add, aren’t always negative. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tech-crash-powell-firing-bond-turmoil-these-are-one-firms-possible-if-unlikely-gray-swans-1cccf92a De värsta börsrasen i Stockholm de senaste 50 åren Market Oracle Amity Shlaes Stephen Roach Dow Jones 1973 1974 Rätt vad det är kan det komma en svart svan uppdykande och allt vi hade trott vara sant visar sig då vara fel. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2010/03/tank-om-vi-lever-i-en-n...

 SvT Ekonomibyrån Fredagen den 24 januari 2024 https://www.svtplay.se/video/jXvyoPn/ekonomibyran/the-borstoppen-is-nadd Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 27 januari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/rolfs-lanktips-27-januari-2025.html

A Chinese artificial-intelligence company has Silicon Valley marveling at how its programmers nearly matched American rivals despite using inferior chips. Born in 1985, Liang grew up in China’s southeastern province of Guangdong. He went to China’s prestigious Zhejiang University and specialized in machine vision. A few years after graduation, Liang founded High-Flyer with two college friends in 2015.  DeepSeek’s development was led by a Chinese hedge-fund manager, Liang Wenfeng, who has become the face of the country’s AI push. On Jan. 20, Liang met China’s premier and discussed how homegrown companies could narrow the gap with the U.S. DeepSeek Chief’s Journey From Math Geek to Global Disruptor Wall Street Journal 28 January 2025 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/liang-wenfeng-deepseek-ai-8bba3bb3 Wall Street Journal 27 January 2025 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/china-ai-deepseek-chatbot-6ac4ad33 Under helgen ökade spekulationerna om Deep Seeks senaste produkt, som bedöms vara kostnadsef...

Elites at Davos this year consider ‘asset bubble bursts’ a low risk over the next two years One of the central focuses of the conference is a Global Risks Report that highlights the global risks these experts deem most likely to occur in coming years. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/global-risks-report-2025-bleak-predictions/ When assessing these risks, the rich and famous fall prey to the same biases that plague all of us. They worry about the same things that we do — the latest news headlines This behavioral bias is related to what’s known as “recency bias,” which is defined by Wikipedia as “a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones.” Also known as the “memory bias,”   World Economic Forum counts asset bubble bursts in 25th place   By almost any objective measure, the risk of a bubble bursting is perhaps higher now than at any time in decades.  But because no major asset bubble has burst in recent years, recency bias leads the globa...

US remained vulnerable to the same combination of problems that caused major recent crises,  including the 1980s savings and loan collapse,  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/10/before-1986-act-s-were-primary-source.html https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/04/financial-crises-get-triggered-about.html S&L Savings and Loans Banking Crisis Rolf Englund the 2008 financial crisis  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/us-counts-its-bank-bailout-billions.html and the 2023 regional bank runs.  FDIC Says It Should Have Done More to Supervise First Republic Bank https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/worst-performance-for-stocks-since-2023.html The Silicon Valley Bank Rescue Changed Capitalism https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-silicon-valley-bank-rescue-changed.html In each case, deregulation and looser supervision enabled the rapid growth of new products and nonbank financial companies that later proved to be riskier than anticipated. Financial...

Coelis förvaltningschef Erik Lundkvist  DI 27 december 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/proffset-slaglage-for-stockholmsborsen-fantastiskt-koplage/ Det finns skäl att vara börsoptimist Börsbolagens ledningar har blivit virtuoser på att ta sig an – och runt – utmaningar. Det talar för att 2025 kan bli ett gott börsår Anna Ekelund DI 25 december 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/det-finns-skal-att-vara-borsoptimist/ Malmqvist: Hög risk för börskrasch 2025 kommer ett bakslag i USA, spår Peter Malmqvist. – Det ser riskfyllt ut och det beror på att värderingarna på de amerikanska börserna är väldigt höga ur ett historiskt perspektiv, framför allt inom tech. Det kommer inte hålla. – Stockholmsbörsen är nog inte övervärderad, men rasar det i USA rasar det hos alla andra också. Faller de amerikanska börserna är det god-natt med Stockholm. SvD 26 December 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/gwyy1B/fortsatt-borsuppgang-eller-krasch-svd-s-experter-siar-om-2025 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 27 december 2024 h...

Meanwhile, the bizarre world of the US equity markets, which are priced for perfection, has everyone at New York dinner parties talking about when (and if) they are planning to take at least some of their portfolios to cash. Despite this, or perhaps because of it, the super-rich can still spend. But less wealthy people who were once ready to splurge on that $500 handbag are being far more cautious.  Rana Foroohar  Financial Times 23 December 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/a98befd3-2b9f-4639-9de4-02186264aaf2 This feels like a good time to take some money off the table. James Mackintosh Wall Street Journal 17 December 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-17-december-2024.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 23 december 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-23-december-2024.html

  The benchmark yield may first reach 5% in the first quarter of 2025 before potentially climbing further “Is a 6% 10‑year Treasury yield possible? Why not? But we can consider that when we move through 5%,” wrote Husain, who helps the money manager oversee $187 billion. His latest vision for a 6% yield appears even more bearish than some of his peers.  ING Groep NV said the 10-year yield may test 5% to 5.5% next year, while Franklin Templeton and JPMorgan Asset Management said 5% was possible. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/treasury-yields-at-6-are-possible-on-fiscal-risks-t-rowe-says Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 17 december 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-17-december-2024.html

med såväl kraftigt vinstlyft som sänkt styrränta. Tyvärr har det varit en osannolik kombination.  Börjar det barka nedåt blir det trångt i dörren.  Då blir börsens ”zebror” snabbt uppätna.  Förvaltarna kan få sparken och zebrorna bli uppätna av lejon. Bägge rör sig i flock och nyckeln är därför var de ska stå i relation till de andra.  I säkra tider käkar de aggressiva zebrorna i utkanten av flocken bäst medan de som trängs i mitten får halvt uppätet och nedtrampat gräs.  Men en dag kommer lejonen och zebrorna i utkanten slutar som lejonlunch. De spinkiga i mitten har visserligen ätit sämre, men de lever fortfarande.”   zebrorna inför 2025 extremt tätt packade i mitten av flocken.  alla 18 strateger tror på stigande bolagsvinster 2025. Hela 15 av dem spår ökningar i det snäva intervallet av 10–14 procent.  sedan 2000, har strategerna som grupp alltid förutspått att börsen ska stiga.  Mikael Vilenius DI 17 december 2024 https://www.di.se/...

  Having tagged America’s inordinately large share of global financial markets as “the mother of all bubbles” in my last column,  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-mother-of-all-bubbles.html the main pushback I got, even from the few people who share my view, was that there is no sign this bubble will deflate any time soon. The bulls say America can remain dominant, owing to impressive earnings of the country’s corporations. But US earnings growth would not look so exceptional if not for the supernormal profits of its big tech firms. Growth and profits are also getting an artificial lift from the heaviest deficit spending ever recorded at this stage of an economic cycle, by far. More likely, by some point next year, investors will balk and demand higher interest rates That is often how bubbles end: unexpectedly.  When flying in such thin air, it doesn’t take much to stall the engines. All the classic signs of extreme prices, valuations and sentiment suggest th...

The idea of America as an exceptional nation, superior to its rivals and therefore destined to lead the world, seems passé to most observers. In political, diplomatic and military circles, the talk is of a dysfunctional superpower, isolationist abroad and polarised at home.  But in the investing world, the term “American exceptionalism” is hotter than ever.     As a result, the US accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the leading global stock index, up from 30 per cent in the 1980s.  And the dollar, by some measures, trades at a higher value than at any time since the developed world abandoned fixed exchange rates 50 years ago. This is not a bubble in US markets, it’s mania in global markets. Ruchir Sharma Financial Times 2 Decembe r 2024 The writer is chair of Rockefeller International. His latest book is ‘What Went Wrong With Capitalism’  https://www.ft.com/content/49cca8d7-7b6e-47e3-a50c-9557d7c85fc0  March 2022: the Fed purchased $1.4 trillion in asse...

Oil is down as if we’re headed toward a recession.  Home prices are up as if rate cuts will continue.  Gold is up, suggesting inflation is back.  The dollar is strong as if Europe, Canada and China are ailing (spoiler alert: They are.) Still, something’s got to give. Core inflation is rising and has been over 3% since April of 2021.  Long bonds are signaling that the Fed needs to stop cutting rates. The S&P 500 risk premium, which is the earnings yield of stocks minus the 10-year Treasury rate, is basically negative.  In effect, investors are paying for the risk of owning stocks instead of bonds. Weird. The last time this happened was in 2002.  The crypto market is crazy, with Bitcoin hitting new highs.  Palantir stock is up more than 250% for the year on artificial intelligence hype and is now worth roughly $145 billion.  It’s a great company but is ahead of itself. The stock is selling at 483 times after tax operating earnings. And 55 times ...

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/05/excellent-about-bitvoins-tulips.html Det gjorde även Newton https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/reddit-lehman-brothers-newton-och.html Mer här https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/02/us-stocks-in-bubble-no.html Här rätt länk - fel gammal länk längre fram EUR-Lex - 12008E123 - EN

  https://www.lidingonyheter.se/kungliga-operan-flyttar-in-i-gasklocka-2/ Ryssland har skjutit en interkontinental robot in i Ukraina Jag ser det det som att Ryssland bara vill skapa oro i Väst,  säger Markus Göransson, lektor i krigsvetenskap på Försvarshögskolan. https://www.dn.se/varlden/ryssland-avfyrar-interkontinental-robot-en-tom-signal/ Avgående utrikeschefen Josep Borrell uppmanar nu EUs medlemsländerna att vara mer enade Oscar Engelberts privata ägarbolag Parkgate  Tillgångarna uppgår till 0,8 miljoner kronor medan skulderna summeras till 1.395,5 Mkr.  Viktor Mölne DI 21 november 2024 https://www.di.se/live/skuldberg-pa-1-4-miljarder-i-oscar-engelberts-parkgate/   Oscar Properties  Den förra vd:n, grundaren Oscar Engelbert, sålde 12,4 procent av Oscar Properties för drygt 300 miljoner kronor vid aktiekursens kulmen våren 2017. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/01/bostadsrattsforening-vill-att-oscar.html ECB Must Keep Restrictive Policy on Pri...

 1929 -202? The trend is your friend. And then the trend is not your friend. It feels good at the top of the spike, always feels terrific. And people always torture the logic to think, like in 1929, that it’s a “new high plateau.”  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/1929-202-trend-is-your-friend-and-then.html Watch out for Margin Call Margin Call is a 2011 American financial thriller film.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/02/watch-out-for-margin-call.html In the long run the dipbuyers have been right - if they survived. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILJ41tmQAQ8 https://www.youtube.com/@bravosresearch https://www.bravosresearch.com S&P 500 could jump as high as 7,400 Morgan Stanley finally turns bullish on U.S. stocks  Wall Street firm expect the recent broadening in earnings growth to continue in 2025 Steve Goldstein MarketWatch 18 November 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanley-finally-turns-bullish-on-u-s-stocks-as-it-says-the-s-p...

  Förväntningarna ligger på 100 procent i ökad omsättning nästa år och 45 procent året därpå. Lyckas man nå marknadens förväntningar är bolaget rimligt värderat, enligt Carl Armfelt, portföljförvaltare på TIN Fonder. SvD/TT 17 november 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/kwBa2v/fallhojden-stor-for-ai-boomens-gigant Kontakta oss - TIN Fonder Tin foil hat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tin_foil_hat After $2 Trillion Gain, Nvidia Is Still Irresistible to Many  and 9 major bubbles in the last 100 years 5 juni 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/after-2-trillion-gain-nvidia-is-still.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 16-17 November 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-16-17-november-2024.html

  Jan. 1, 2000 marked almost the exact top of the biggest stock market bubble to date.  To start, the fact that the millennium opened with stocks historically strong means that they haven’t had that great a quarter-century. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank AG’s resident financial historian, to make a fascinating study of the century’s financial returns so far. (The charts are from him.) It can be irritating to hear pundits hyperventilating about risks of disaster and the unsafe foundations of finance, but there are reasons why they do.  We don’t know how this story ends, but anyone shown these figures 25 years ago would have been horrified, and predicted very serious trouble. Beyond the rise of global debt and printed money, the other most startling development has been the rise of China.  Deng Xiaoping  John Authers Bloomberg 13 november 2024   https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-13/gold-not-stocks-is-the-greatest-asset-of-the-millennium   ...

  Again, to be clear, a primitive overlay chart is no kind of evidence that the stock market is destined for a crash like 1929.  Nothing proves that the stock market is about to fall as it did on those two occasions.  But the higher the valuation, the higher the odds against continued strong performance. The spread of high-yield bonds’ yields over Treasuries, a crucial measure of the compensation you receive for lending to companies with weak credit, has dropped to a 17-year low in recent days Again, this absolutely doesn’t prove, or even suggest, that we’re about to stage a repeat of the GFC.  It does, however, strongly indicate that markets are very ungenerously priced for anyone who wants to enter.  John Authers  Bloomberg 12 November 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-12/trump-post-election-stocks-rally-looks-just-like-1928   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-breaks-above-6-000-for-the-first-time-why-u-s-stocks-may-...