Dagens länkar 4 juli 2013

A deepening political crisis in Portugal and Greece’s inability to push ahead with public sector job cuts sent bond yields rocketing, reigniting concerns about the breakdown of eurozone bailout programmes after months of relative calm in the bloc.

The turbulence reverberated in the rest of the eurozone periphery. 

While Italy’s bond market was relatively calm, Spain’s 10-year bond yield rose 14 basis points to 4.74 per cent, and Greece’s comparable bond yield jumped 34bp to 11.1 per cent.

Investors were also unnerved by another brewing showdown between Greece and its creditors after international lenders warned it that they would withhold an €8.1bn loan payment unless the government redoubled stalled efforts to gut a bloated public sector workforce.

Full text

Euriintelligence:

Rising costs makes it increasingly unlikely that Lisbon could exit its bailout programme as planned;
BreakingViews calls for a rethink of the bailout programme, which might need more money either from the ECB or the private sector;

Spain's sovereign risk premium rises sharply to above 310bp
as Portugal's increases by 200bp to over 800bp;

Jornal de Negocios editorial says the crisis will not lead to changes in austerity policies, and a new Socialist PM would also be bound by his support of the programme in the past;

Joana Gorjão Henriques of the Guardian says Portugal, like Italy and Greece, live in troikaland, where the prime minister does not matter;

http://www.breakingviews.com/portugal-mess-shows-need-for-bailout-rethink/21094831.article


http://www.eurointelligence.com/

Dagens länkar 3 juli 2013

Risks of a hard landing for China
The pilot is allowing the plane to slow down, but if it slows too much,
it will fall below stall speed and drop out of the sky.
Martin Wolf, Financial Times, July 2, 2013

The new Chinese leadership is trying to manage one of the most difficult of economic manoeuvres: slowing down a flying economy.

In a recent note, David Levy of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center has asked the crucial question: what is China’s stall speed?

He argues that China is more like a jumbo jet /than a train/:

“In recent years, a couple of engines have not been working well, and the pilot is now loath to keep straining the remaining good engines. He is allowing the plane to slow down, but if it slows too much, it will fall below stall speed and drop out of the sky.”

Full text

http://levyforecast.com/

Carrier Landing, Youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7IaMc6dHPw

I USA var så kallade National Banks länge förbjudna att lämna lån mot säkerhet i fastigheter.
Banker skulle inte vara pantlånare.

Grant beskriver spekulationsvågorna gällande mark, fastigheter och aktier och främst 1920-talets utveckling fram mot kulmen 1929. Han uppehåller sig mycket vid den av andra föga uppmärksammade frågan om hur det kom sig att det tog så lång tid, ända fram till 1950-talet, innan lusten att låna kom tillbaka.

Det erinrar om dagens situation där I USA centralbankschefen Greenspan försöker uppnå en "soft landing" på ekonomins hangarfartyg.

Han känner att han inte kommer fram, drar gasen - räntan - i botten,
men motorn, penningmängden, svarar inte. Farten sjunker.

Rolf Englund, Smedjan nr 4/1992

Kina

There's no suffering too great if it's for the sake of the euro – and Ireland proves it

 Jeremy Warner

Irland

Börsen i Lissabon rasade med 6 procent när handeln inleddes, till följd av den politiska krisen i Portugal. Den tioåriga statsobligationsräntan steg samtidigt till över 8,0 procent.

http://www.svd.se/naringsliv/nyheter/varlden/brant-borsras-i-krisande-portugal_8316304.svd

Portuguese bond yields soar amid political turmoil

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/17661078-e3b9-11e2-b35b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2XybfTN1l

Portugal Stocks Tumble as Political Crisis Worsens

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100861947

 PORTUGAL
Ever since the European Union and IMF rode to the rescue with a €78 billion ($111 billion) bail-out in 2011, the economy has shrunk, unemployment has soared and thousands of small firms have failed. Joblessness for under-25s is close to 43%

The Economist print, June 29, 2013

Portugal


Senaste Nytt

Länkar för dagen Tisdagen den 2 Juli

Euron är feltänkt från början och skadar allvarligt Europas chanser till återhämtning. 
Det menar professorn i historia från Harvard Niall Ferguson och ekonomiprofessorn Assar Lindbeck.
Assar Lindbeck är inte säker på att politikerna visste vad man gjorde när euron lanserades men att
”man inte ska underskatta dumhetens betydelse för världens utveckling.”
EFN, "ett fristående dotterbolag ägt av Handelsbanken", 2 juli 2013

Kommentar av Rolf Englund:
Man skall heller inte underskatta opportunismens och skamlöshetens betydelse
Assar Lindbeck propagerade för Ja-sidan i folkomröstningen 2003
Man måste betrakta honom som en osympatisk person som utan egen förskyllan har höljts i ära.

http://www.internetional.se/assar.htm#0713EFN


Unintended consequences
Bail-in fears grow for big depositors in euro periphery

The latest initiative to build a resilient eurozone “banking union” may have the opposite effect and 
spark renewed capital movement away from the continent’s troubled southern economies while benefiting banks in the north. 

Financial Times, July 1, 2013

Det verkar som man försöker lura de tyska väljarna.
Någon borde väl reagera på det.

Greece is expecting a second debt haircut from its European creditors following the German election, the country's economy minister said on Tuesday.

First, though, Athens must prove that it has done enough to receive the next tranche of badly needed bailout money.

With German elections just three months away, Berlin is eager to avoid any talk about yet another debt haircut for ailing Greece. Indeed, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble ruled out such a possibility just last week.

It is clear, he said, "that we aren't going to undertake such a debt reduction."

Der Spiegel, June 2, 2013