New debt forecasts dash Greece hopesThe magnitude of Greece’s fiscal challenge was painted in sharp relief yesterday as Athens unveiled new budget projections
exceeding the worst-case scenarios envisioned by international lenders when they agreed an €174bn rescue eight months ago.
Financial Times, October 31st, 2012
The German bloc will have to take its bitter medicine in Greece
Ambrose, October 31st, 2012
Every detail of the Greek economy is worse than officially forecast just weeks ago.
The budget unveiled this morning estimates that public debt will reach 189pc of GDP next year (not 179pc).
The budget deficit will be 5.2pc (not 4.2pc). The economy will shrink 4.5pc next year (not 3.8pc). Unemployment is already 25.1pc and 55.6pc for youth.
Just for the record:
The EU-IMF Troika originally said that the economy would contract by just 2.6pc in 2010, before growing by 1.1pc in 2011, and 2.1pc in 2012.
In fact Greek GDP contracted by 4.5pc in 2010, 6.9pc in 2011, and will shrink 6.5pc this year,
and now 4.5pc next year.
The cumulative error is colossal.
The IMF simply lost its political way in Greece. It knew – or should have known from dozens on rescue operations around the world – that Greece would crash into a self-feeding spiral without a rapid debt restructuring and a devaluation.
Both channels were blocked because of the sanctity of the EMU Project.
Jag läser i Financial Times att S&P har sänkt Greklands kreditvärdighet.
Jag erinrar mig då gärna när jag skrattade på ett SNS-möte för ett år sedan. Jag är väl inte så mycket skickligare ekonom än dom andra i salen, från Riksbank och Finansdepartement med mera. Dom förstod nog också. Men dom teg.
Rolf Englund blog, 10 maj 2011