Englund

Ungern – Wikipedia Hungary is set to permanently lose access to just over €1bn in EU funds on January 1, as disputes between Budapest and Brussels hamper the country’s capacity to drag itself out of recession — and undermine Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s bid for re-election in 2026.  Of the €6.3bn in funds frozen by Brussels over concerns about the rule of law, Budapest will permanently lose €1.04bn because this amount must be allocated by the end of 2024 or it expires.  Hungary is also missing out on €1mn per day in funding from the EU over its illegal treatment of asylum seekers; its total losses over the treatment of asylum seekers will amount to €200mn by the year’s end. Financial Times 31 December 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/fe893219-7ac3-4ff4-a01f-5cfc3e99be7c EU to release €6.3 billion in aid to Poland - nu när Tusk, tidigare ordförande i Europeiska rådet, kommit till makten https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/02/eu-to-release-63-billion-in-aid-to.html Hungary's ...

  The ECB still has the genes of the very inflation-resistant Bundesbank. The bloc has been far keener than the US to resort to austerity, and its economy has failed to grow anything like as fast Unemployment is very significantly higher. The ECB doesn’t have a full employment mandate like the Fed Europe’s politics are not propitious for the ECB to be at all hawkish.  The economic structure of the euro zone — which forced Mario Draghi to promise to do “whatever it takes” to save the currency from its sovereign debt crisis 12 years ago — is in question again.  The spread of French over German sovereign bond yields, the market’s measure of the perceived extra risk, is at almost exactly its level of the 2012 “whatever it takes” moment. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk — formerly president of the European Council and a great champion of the European project — created a shock over the weekend by announcing that his country was “temporarily suspending asylum rights.”  T...

Som så ofta är det ”narrativet” som är viktigast, alltså vilken berättelse som får fäste i det allmänna medvetandet. Den polske premiärministern Donald Tusk är skicklig på att forma den berättelsen. Han har dessutom många villiga lyssnare i Bryssel och bland europeiska ledare, som gärna vill att det går bra för Tusks liberala Medborgarkoalition och dåligt för högernationalisterna. Tusks mittenparti blev störst. Det är symboliskt viktigt. De första reaktionerna på EU-valet var att Tusk, som tidigare var ordförande i Europeiska rådet, lyckades stå emot den auktoritära, EU-skeptiska och delvis proryska strömning som vann så stora valframgångar i Frankrike och Tyskland. Men vid en noggrannare betraktelse visar det sig att det inte heller i Polen gick särskilt bra för de demokratiska och EU-vänliga partierna. Visserligen besegrade Medborgarkoalitionen med sina 37 procent PIS, som fick 36 procent. Men det var en mycket knapp marginal, vilket var långt sämre än förväntningarna. Michael Winiar...

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFbYtMYQ1_0 Battle of Vienna Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Vienna

 and if Ukraine is defeated by Russia, nobody in Europe will be able to feel safe. "I don't want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past," he told European media. "It's real and it started over two years ago." Mr Tusk, a former president of the European Council, When he was Polish prime minister for the first time, from 2007 to 2014, he said few other European leaders beyond Poland and the Baltic states realised Russia was a potential threat. He praised several European leaders and highlighted the importance of security co-operation between Poland, France and Germany - an alliance known as the Weimar Triangle. BBC 29 March 2024 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68692195

Europe’s economy is under attack from all sides (economist.com) EU to release €6.3 billion in aid to Poland - nu när Tusk, tidigare ordförande i Europeiska rådet, kommit till makten https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/02/eu-to-release-63-billion-in-aid-to.html Later it was the turn of the   walls, and the Germans brought down the real wall in Berlin." Walesa was the chairman of the Solidarity trade union in communist Poland from 1980 to 1990 and later became the first elected president of democratic Poland, serving from 1990 to 1995.  He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to freedom and democracy. Deutsche Well 23 March 2024 Parliamentary elections were held in Poland in 1989 to elect members of the Sejm and the recreated Senate.  The first round took place on 4 June, with a second round on 18 June.  They were the first elections in the country since the Communist Polish United Workers Party abandoned its monopoly of power in April 1989. ...

In particular the chancellor has resisted intense pressure to supply German-made Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, a stand that has won support for his politically flagging Social Democrats among war-shy Germans (an opinion poll suggests that 61% of Germans oppose such transfers).  But it has frustrated allies as well as many German policy experts and the opposition Christian Democrats. The French president’s most provocative move has been to float the possibility that nato forces might undertake non-combat roles in Ukraine.  They have promised to meet again in a few months.  The Economist 15 March 2024 https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/03/15/france-germany-and-poland-try-to-patch-differences-over-ukraine

The European Commission is set to accept a package of recent political commitments as sufficient to trigger the first payment from almost €60 billion in grants and loans that have remained blocked over rule-of-law concerns,  A positive EU decision would be a boost for Prime Minister Donald Tusk Bloomberg 21 February 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/eu-poised-to-release-polish-funds-blocked-in-rule-of-law-clash Donald Tusk  Polens premiärminister sedan december 2023 och var det även tidigare 2007–2014  och var Europeiska rådets ordförande 2014–2019.  https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Tusk

The multi-year budget worth €832bn funded by eu debt, previously a rare commodity.   Some called it Europe’s Hamiltonian moment , invoking Alexander Hamilton, America’s first treasury secretary, who masterminded the fiscal federalisation of the United States.  But the eu is some way from a fiscal federation. Northern finance ministers insist that the recovery fund was a one-off.  In early 2020 the European Central Bank had to intervene forcefully to stop interest rates on the enormous debt of Italy, which was hit hard by the pandemic, from spiralling out of control.  The fund’s second purpose was to aid the recovery from the depths of the covid recession. That was never going to work. Fiscal stimulus should focus on consumption, not investment—think American-style stimulus checks, or tax cuts.  The biggest recipients got huge sums. (Richer countries got little, and will end up disproportionately paying off the debt.)  The final purpose of the NGEU was ...

They do not see the West as the shining city on the hill, but as Rome before the fall—decadent, depraved and about to collapse amid a barbarian invasion. Not content with resisting progress, they also want to destroy classical liberalism. How, then, should old-style conservatives and classical liberals deal with national conservatism?  One answer is to take people’s legitimate grievances seriously.  The citizens of many Western countries see illegal migration as a source of disorder and a drain on the public purse. They worry that their children will grow up to be poorer than they are. They are anxious about losing their jobs to new technology.  They believe that institutions such as universities and the press have been captured by hostile, illiberal, left-leaning elites. They see the globalists who have thrived in recent decades as members of a self-serving, arrogant caste who like to believe that they rose to the top in a meritocracy when, in reality, their success was ...

The Economist 7 Ferbrkuary 2024  https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/02/07/poland-is-trying-to-restore-the-rule-of-law-without-violating-it

Or, rather, it is a reaction to globalization and the perception that decisions are increasingly made by experts and financial markets that exist beyond the scope of democratic structures.  Populism is an attempt to reclaim people’s voices. But an interesting question remains: Why does this supposedly healthy reaction lead to such poor results – from the crisis of democracy to the rise of international conflicts?  With Poland’s parliamentary election coming next month, your new book, Society of Populists, co-authored with Przemysław Sadura, is being widely read and discussed. Even Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has commented on it, though he belongs to the populist ruling party. What does your title mean, and how are you defining populism? In Poland, Hungary, Serbia, or Slovakia populists have been able to take over state institutions with little effort. Though liberal thought had been emerging in Poland since the nineteenth century, partition and the lack of a Polish state...

Garton Ash kallar dem med en välfunnen formulering för ”postwar Europe” respektive ”post-Wall Europe”. Det sena 1970-talet. På bedagade hotell, som Gellért i Budapest eller Bristol i Warszawa, hade tiden stannat, kommunismen stagnerat och gästerna kontemplerade metafysiska problem.  Knappt ens Richard Swartz hade kunnat frammana denna flydda atmosfär med samma litterära pregnans. Johan Östling SvD 27 mars 2023 https://www.svd.se/a/Q7arJQ/klarsynt-om-det-europa-som-nyss-var Richard Swartz, eurons födelse och Tysklands återförening Englund: Richard Swartz, eurons födelse och Tysklands återförening (englundmacro.blogspot.com) Vi förstod inte att östeuropéer skulle betrakta Bryssel som ett nytt Moskva. Inte heller insåg vi att östeuropéerna redan hade ett projekt som de arbetat intensivt på i mer än ett sekel: den egna, suveräna nationalstaten. Richard Swartz DN 6 oktober 2018 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2018/10/vi-forstod-inte-att-osteuropeer-skulle.html

 His grandfather Stanislaw Albrecht Radziwill married Caroline Lee Bouvier, Jacqueline Kennedy’s sister. Radziwills, whose lineage can be traced to the Middle Ages. “Their name resounds very heavily in Polish history,” says Robert Fluder, a lawyer involved in the Mennica deal. “When you have a project with the ­Radziwills, there can’t be anything bad happen.” Every troubled real estate deal, like Leo Tolstoy’s observation of every unhappy family, has a singular story. The Radziwills’ ancestral homecoming involves a Polish mogul, a local real estate developer on the make, US diplomats, a secret side deal, a boardroom coup and the police. In November, MBank told Jarzabek and the Radziwills that they would seize the building unless their loan was repaid. Bloomberg 10 February 2023 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-10/a-real-estate-deal-turns-into-a-nightmare-for-polish-prince-radziwil l

  Dec. 22, the European Commission  effectively froze  almost €22 billion of Hungary’s 2021-27  cohesion funding , money set aside for poorer members to promote sustainable development.  The reason: Hungary’s failure to comply with the Charter of Fundamental Rights, in particular in the protection of academic freedom, refugees and LGBTQ people Poland is incurring a  daily fine  of €1 million a day for flouting an EU court order to dissolve a disciplinary chamber for judges, a sum that has grown to more than €400 million. Poland filed a complaint in December aimed at stopping the fines. Bloomberg 30 december 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-30/how-eu-is-withholding-funding-to-try-to-rein-in-hungary-poland

 Moderaternas partiledare Ulf Kristersson deltar också i kritiken med en skriftlig kommentar: ”Det här är riktigt vidrigt och jag förväntar mig att SD hanterar situationen därefter. Hade något lika vidrigt hänt hos Moderaterna hade personen fått sparken omedelbart”  https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/sd-medarbetare-skickade-klumpigt-mejl-syftet-vantolkas Det hör till saken att han som inbjöd till fikat var en polack. Polen styckades mellan Stalin och Hitler. Det gör det otroligt att han skulle fira annat än Veteranernas Dag till minne av de polacker som kämpade under Andra Världskriget. Polen kapitulerade aldrig och tyskarna fick inte ihop någon lydregering. Sedermera lät Stalin sina trupper göra halt medan tyskarna slog ner upproret i Warzawa. Och polackerna fick inte vara med i segerparaden efter påtryckningar från Stalin. Det var i Polen Walesa välte kommunismen. No. 303 (Polish) Fighter Squadron After the war, the Polish pilots felt their country had been betrayed to Sovie...

The Market Reform Debate By Isabella M. Weber China has become deeply integrated into the world economy. Yet, gradual marketization has facilitated the country’s rise without leading to its wholesale assimilation to global neoliberalism.  This book uncovers the fierce contest about economic reforms that shaped China’s path. In the first post-Mao decade, China’s reformers were sharply divided. They agreed that China had to reform its economic system and move toward more marketization—but struggled over how to go about it.  Should China destroy the core of the socialist system through shock therapy, or should it use the institutions of the planned economy as market creators?  With hindsight, the historical record proves the high stakes behind the question: China embarked on an economic expansion commonly described as unprecedented in scope and pace, whereas Russia’s economy collapsed under shock therapy https://www.routledge.com/How-China-Escaped-Shock-Therapy-The-Market-Re...

The dangerous confrontation between Brussels and Warsaw over rule of law could deepen after a European court ruling last week FT 21 February 2022 https://www.ft.com/content/949b4fd2-90cd-44e1-a3b0-1d61a4aacc9e

Kaliningrads län slår in en kil mellan Polen och Litauen och har ingen egen landförbindelse med Ryssland. DN 13 februari 2022 https://www.dn.se/varlden/rysslands-hot-har-satt-ljuset-pa-exklaven-kaliningrad-knappt-30-landmil-fran-sveriges-kust/ Genom universitetet, grundat 1544, blev Königsberg ett andligt centrum; här verkade Immanuel Kant 1755-96 http://www.nejtillemu.com/kaliningrad.htm Långt inne på polskt territorium fanns en tysk enklav: Danzig!  Angreppet på Polen motiverade Hitler med att det bodde många tyskar i västra Polen och att Tyskland hade en historisk rätt till Danzig-området. I augusti 1939 delades Polen mellan Sovjetunionen och Tyskland (den s.k. Molotov – Ribbentrop-pakten). Kurt Morell Bohuslänningen 7 december 2021 https://www.bohuslaningen.se/asikt/insandare/sparen-forskracker.60bcc047-c832-49a2-ad62-ab7e98e26457  

Ursula von der Leyen. “It is a direct challenge to the unity of the European legal order.” In a sense, she is right. The primacy of EU law is what turns a club of nations into a superstate. Take it away, and the EU becomes just one more international association like Nato, ASEAN or the Council of Europe. Why, you might ask, did the member countries agree to this surrender? The answer is that they didn’t – at least, not until very recently. The primacy of EU law is not to be found anywhere in the Treaty of Rome.  It was invented, rather, by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in a series of controversial rulings which even committed federalists now admit amounted to a power-grab. In particular, two landmark cases in the 1960s – Van Gend en Loos and Costa vs ENEL – established that EU rulings were directly binding upon individuals and businesses within the member states, knocking aside any national legal acts that might contradict them. For a long time, this blatant judicial activism...