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  "The European Union needs to change, and I would like to convince you about that today," Orban said, calling the current era the "most serious period" in the 27-member bloc's history. He said that the escalating conflict in the Middle East would prompt a "migration crisis" that might cause the Schengen open border system to "fall apart."   EU parliamentarians listened quietly to the speech. It was only toward the end, as a round of the antifascist anthem "Bella Ciao" broke out, that things began to get rowdy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has told top EU officials toboycott meetings organized by the Hungarian presidency DeutscheWelle 9 October 2024 https://www.dw.com/en/hungarys-orban-scorned-by-eu-lawmakers-after-speech/a-70442840 Tysklands nya tillfälliga gränskontroller är nu införda september 16, 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/tysklands-nya-tillfalliga.html Annika Ström Melin: Vad kommer ti

  US net oil imports A worst-case scenario  Israel strikes the Iranian oil export terminal of Kharg Island, from where the Islamic Republic ships 90% of its production;  Tehran, in turn, retaliates by bombing oilfields in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, affecting a large chunk of global output.  Immediately, an all-out regional war has broken out, closing the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane for most Middle Eastern oil.  That’s worth a lot more than a 10% price jump. The US is the world’s largest oil producer, and thus its dependence on Middle Eastern petroleum has collapsed.  Back in July 2006, the country pumped 6.8 million barrels a day of total oil.  Today, it pumps more than 20.1 million barrels.  In 2006, US net petroleum imports ran at an all-time high of 12.5 million barrels;  America is now a net exporter to the tune of 1.5 million barrels.  Javier Blas Bloomberg 9 October 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-09/iran-israel-and-the-ris

   SCB presenterade i våras en ny så kallad befolkningsframskrivning var det många som hajade till.  Enligt prognoseb kommer befolkningen 2024-2033 att öka med i genomsnitt 25.000 per år att jämföra med i snitt 90.000 per år under den föregående tioårsperioden. I 160 av landets 290 kommuner väntas befolkningen minska.  Så sent som för ett år sedan räknade den statliga myndigheten Boverket med att det skulle behövas 67.000 nya bostäder per år 2023-2030. I själva verket kan det handla om mindre än hälften. Viktor Munkhammar: 9 oktober 2024 https://www.di.se/analys/ny-sorts-bostadskris-vantar/ Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 9 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-9-oktober-2024.html

  Wall Street Journal 9 October 2024 17.13 Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 9 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-9-oktober-2024.html

  The US president has cancelled his trip to Germany,to oversee the response to the hurricane, urged those in the storm’s path to evacuate as a matter of “life and death”. On average, the Atlantic basin experiences about seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes a year. The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs until Nov 30. Telegraph 9 October 2024 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/08/weatherman-on-verge-of-tears-hurricane-milton/ Hurricane Milton Barrels Toward Florida https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-barrels-toward-florida.html Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 9 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-9-oktober-2024.html

  Investors are shunning French debt https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/investors-are-shunning-french-debt.html The Market Shrugs Off the Mother of All Oil Shocks https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-market-shrugs-off-mother-of-all-oil.html  "What, me worry?" https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/what-me-worry.html Excessive optimism is making the stock market vulnerable https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/excessive-optimism-is-making-stock.html Ursula von der Leyen manar till bojkott av möten Hungary's rotating presidency of the European Council https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/ursula-von-der-leyen-manar-till-bojkott.html Hurricane Milton closes in on Florida https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-closes-in-on-florida.html Uppåt på Wall Street  https://www.di.se/live/uppat-pa-wall-street-karnkraftsjatte-mot-strommen/  Börsen på grönt – storbanker mot strömmen https://www.di.se/live/borsen-pa-gront-storbanker-mot-stro

Fjolåret blev strålande för flera av de största fondbolagen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/fjolaret-blev-stralande-for-flera-av-de.html https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-betting-that-inflation-is-easing-dont-fight-the-fed-5a0d3024 Jag delade detta inlägg på Facebook, men det togs bort.  Stred mot reglerna. There’s no way of knowing how long this game of brinkmanship can continue, but it’s a good bet that it will end badly. The stock market rally is being kept alive by a game of brinkmanship that short-term traders are playing. That in essence is how contrarians currently view current stock market sentiment.  Every time this year in which the market-timing community has marched up to the edge of the cliff of exuberance, they have stepped back just in time.  By doing that, they have enabled the bull market to take another crack at new highs. Mark Hulbert MarketWatch 8 October 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/excessive-optimism-is-making-the-stock-market-vulner

A nation whose bonds were historically seen as a proxy for German bunds, the region’s safest asset, now finds itself recast as a poster child for fiscal incontinence. Its debt yields are now aligned with Spain — and increasingly close to those of Italy. Hamstrung by a hung parliament in the wake of snap elections in June,  French officials are warning Brussels that it will take five years just to bring deficits down to European Union limits. Bloomberg 9 October 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/france-budget-macron-facing-dramatic-reversal-in-souring-economy EU Excessive Deficit Procedure https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/france-europes-second-biggest-economy.html Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 9 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-9-oktober-2024.html

Enligt Frida Bratt, sparekonom på Nordnet, kan det vara klokt att ha is i magen och vänta in fler sänkningar av styrräntan. Avanzas privatekonom Felicia Schön är inne på samma spår. – Om man överväger att binda räntan kan det vara klokt att avvakta med att göra det till åtminstone årsskiftet, eftersom räntorna sannolikt kommer att komma ner ännu mer, säger hon. DN 8 oktober 2024 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/laga-tre-arsrantor-hos-bankerna-ar-det-lage-att-binda/ Stock investors shouldn’t worry about 10-year Treasury yield 10-year Treasury would need to probably climb to 4.5% before it can undermine valuations in the broader market, says Eric Diton, president and managing director of The Wealth Alliance. Vivien Lou Chen MarketWatch 8 October 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-investors-shouldnt-worry-about-10-year-treasury-yield-ruining-2024-rally-yet-3e6eecc2 Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 8 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stock

  More and more homeowners lack coverage they can’t afford or aren’t even aware they need. It mostly comes down to flood insurance — or the lack thereof.  Less than 2.5% of homes in Helene’s path were insured against rising waters, Bloomberg News reported. In Buncombe County, North Carolina, where hard-hit Asheville is situated, just 0.7% of homes had flood insurance, according to an NBC News estimate. In fact, only about 4% of all US homeowners have flood insurance, according to FEMA, mainly through its insurance program.  Even in areas at high risk of flooding, less than a third of homes are insured against rising waters, according to a 2018 estimate by the Wharton School. Mark Gongloff Bloomberg 8 October 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-08/fema-s-national-flood-insurance-program-needs-urgent-fixes Hurricane Milton Barrels Toward Florida https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-barrels-toward-florida.html Florida, why is Tampa Bay so vulnerab

  Hongkong den sämsta handelsdagen på 16 år.  Vid stängning hade Hang Seng-index rasat drygt 9 procent vilket är den största nedgången sedan finanskrisen 2008. På Shanghaibörsen som varit helgstängd en längre tid och därmed inte innefattats av den generella uppgången så har handeln i stället gått i motsatt riktning.  Uppgången 4,6 procent. Bakgrunden till det tunga fallet är morgonens besked från kinesiskt myndighetshåll gällande ytterligare stimulansåtgärder. Den senaste tiden har en rad sådana beslut drivit på en kursuppgång på bland annat Hongkongbörsen men nu gavs inga signaler vilket i sin tur resulterade i en kraftig rekyl nedåt. DI/TT 8 oktober 2024 https://www.di.se/live/hongkong-varsta-borsdagen-pa-16-ar/ China’s stock-market resurgence hits roadblock on lack of new stimulus measures https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-stock-market-resurgence-hits-roadblock-on-lack-of-new-stimulus-measures-8d461510 Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 8 oktober 2024 https://englundmacr

Sitting on trade routes that link China, India and Southeast Asia, Cambodia’s geopolitical importance far outweighs its land mass.  Beijing has invested heavily in its neighbor, building key infrastructure projects like canals and ports. But with economic largesse has come increased political influence. Ignoring that would cede more power to the world’s second-largest economy in a region that is at risk of drifting away from Washington. The most recent project is a $1.7 billion canal, that spans some 180 kilometers from Phnom Penh to the coastal province of Kep https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-06/us-should-not-let-cambodia-drift-further-into-china-s-grip Många 68-or försöker skratta bort sina felsteg. Alla har väl varit unga och radikala, ha, ha, ha. I Kambodja skrattar man inte åt sådana skämt. Inte heller i Kina, där man upplevt Kulturrevolutionen. Inte heller i Östeuropa. Men i TV-soffan skrattas det lite generat och programledaren ler förstående. https://englundma

Britain to suffer biggest exodus of millionaires in the world (telegraph.co.uk) Hongkong och Shanghai Hongkong den sämsta handelsdagen på 16 år.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/hongkong-och-shanghai.html   Hurricane Milton: President Biden postpones Germany trip US President Joe Biden has postponed a planned trip to Germany as Florida braces for Hurricane Milton, which he says could be the "worst storm in a century" to hit the state.  Hurricane Milton Barrels Toward Florida (englundmacro.blogspot.com) Hurricane Milton Barrels Toward Florida The Great Depression in Florida Florida's economic bubble burst in 1926, when money and credit ran out, and banks and investors abruptly stopped trusting the "paper" millionaires. Severe hurricanes swept through the state in the 1926 and 1928 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-barrels-toward-florida.html Flood Insurance System Requires Urgent Fixes Tampa Area https://englundmacro.blogspot.co

  When will Hurricane Milton hit Florida? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c981q381p58o Hurricane Milton: President Biden postpones Germany trip US President Joe Biden has postponed a planned trip to Germany as Florida braces for Hurricane Milton, which he says could be the "worst storm in a century" to hit the state.  "I just don't think I can be out of the country at this time," he said at the White House on Tuesday Deutsche Welle 8 October 2024 https://www.dw.com/en/hurricane-milton-president-biden-postpones-germany-trip/a-70437209 Milton, the Atlantic’s strongest hurricane this year, is set to approach the Florida peninsula as a catastrophic Category 5 storm, bearing down on a region still struggling to recover from Helene’s devastation. Milton now tops Hurricane Beryl, which raked Texas, Mexico and the Caribbean in July, as the most powerful Atlantic storm this season. With winds this intense, Milton is capable of collapsing homes, flattening trees and tri

Richard Koo chief economist of Nomura Research Institute in Japan is famous, at least among economists, for coining the term “balance sheet recession”.  I now claim to coin the term "balance sheet boom". When shares och house prices rise many, but not all, are, or at least feel, richer. They feel free to choose and free to spend. That may go on longer than you can stay solvent.  Rolf Englund 7 October 2024 Why the bulls are running and the consumers are buying Englund blogg 28 June 2023 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/06/why-bulls-are-running-and-consumers-are.html Richard Koo is famous, at least among economists, for coining the term “balance sheet recession”.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/weakening-dollar-is-good-idea.html Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 7 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-7-oktober-2024.html

 Close to a “Goldilocks” report —warm enough to reassure investors that the U.S. economy is chugging along, but not so hot that it dissuades the Federal Reserve from continuing to cut rates at a gradual pace Investors should remember that even Goldilocks didn’t have long to enjoy her porridge before the bears showed up.   Wall Street Journal 5 October 2024 https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/us-economy-jobs-goldilocks-moment-4ecc105f Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 7 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-7-oktober-2024.html

hovering around its highest level in Fed data going back to 1994.  The average balance that people carry was around $6,300 in the second quarter, up 31% from the same period in 2021 Wall Street Journal 7 October 2024 https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/credit-card-debt-interest-63a0046b   Households had $986 billion in credit-card debt https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/06/households-had-986-billion-in-credit.html Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 7 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-7-oktober-2024.html  

  Black-swan events are sudden, awful, unpredictable and extremely rare; market crashes definitely qualify. Why are crashes inevitable?  Xavier Gabaix, a finance professor at Harvard University and the study’s lead author, said in an interview it’s because large institutional investors on occasion want collectively to get out of equities in a big hurry — and regulators are powerless to stop them when they do.  These investors have many alternative ways of reducing their equity exposure, from derivatives to markets outside the U.S.  Trading halts will therefore be largely ineffective. Mark Hulbert MarketWatch 7 October 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-u-s-stock-market-crash-this-month-why-an-october-surprise-cant-be-ruled-out-e7aab334 Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 7 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-7-oktober-2024.html

Finansinspektionen, FI, det osäkert om alla nischbanker klarar kravet för stabil finansiering, enligt Di:s beräkningar. I måndags förra veckan publicerade FI ett ”rättsligt ställningstagande” där det framgår hur banker ska beräkna det som heter stabil nettofinansieringskvot, NFSR, vilket är ett krav på tillräckligt stabil finansiering Fi förklarade då att bankerna vid beräkningen av NSFR endast får inkludera 50 procent av den obundna inlåning som kommer via inlåningsplattformar (se faktaruta).  Detta eftersom sådan inlåning är en mer flyktig finansieringskälla än exempelvis traditionell inlåning, av vilken bankerna får inkludera 95 procent i NSFR. Bankanalytiker som Di har talat med är samtidigt av uppfattningen att merparten av nischbankerna fram till nu har räknat in 90 procent av plattformsinlåningen i sitt NSFR-mått. FI bekräftar också att ”många av instituten i dag tillämpar en mindre strikt faktor” än den korrekta på 50 procent.  Martin Rex DI 7 oktober 2024 https://www.di.se/nyh

  Morgan Johansson Sverige inte stått upp för internationell rätt SvD: Vägen till fred går via ett fritt Iran. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/morgan-johansson-sverige-inte-statt-upp.html I now claim to coin the term "balance sheet boom". When shares och house prices rise many, but not all, are, or at least feel, richer. They feel free to choose and free to spend. That may go on longer than you can stay solvent .  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/balance-sheet-boom.html ”Det här är en jättegrej” Finansinspektionen, FI, det osäkert om alla nischbanker klarar kravet https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/det-har-ar-en-jattegrej.html Black-swan events are sudden, awful, unpredictable and extremely rare; market crashes definitely qualify. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/a-brief-history-of-crashes.html Hurricane Helene caused havoc in North Carolina, killing dozens of people and stranding others, washing away homes, businesses and crops and knocking

  The “no landing” scenario – a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates – had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months. It only took a blowout payrolls report to revive it. Data showing the fastest job growth in six months, a surprising drop in US unemployment and higher wages sent Treasury yields surging and had investors furiously reversing course on bets for a larger-than-normal half-point interest-rate reduction as soon as next month. The 10-year breakeven rate, a measure of bond traders’ inflation expectations, reached a two-month high, rebounding from a three-year low in mid-September. Bloomberg 7 October 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-06/bond-traders-buckle-up-for-no-landing-after-jobs-surprise Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 7 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-7-oktober-2024.html

  – Ta bara stödet till internationella domstolen och deras utslag i somras som handlar om att Israel måste lämna de ockuperade områdena.  När det prövades av FN så var det en lång rad länder som backade upp beslutet – men inte Sverige, säger han. SvT 7 oktober 2024 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/s-sagning-av-regeringen-passiva-i-fn-kopplat-till-israels-agerande   Vi måste jobba för vapenvila, vi måste frige gisslan och på sikt behöver vi en tvåstatslösning så att människor kan leva i fred, säger Malmer Stenergard. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/pm-nilsson-israelisk-seger-ligger-i.html   Vägen till fred går via ett fritt Iran Alla de nyttiga idioter i väst som bistår palestinierna i denna villfarelse – och kanske rentav själva intalar sig att problemet i Mellanöstern är dess enda demokrati, Israel – är medskyldiga till att dagens hopplösa situation består. Det nuvarande kriget utlöstes av angrepp mot Israel från Hamas och Hizbollah, två Iranstödda terrororganisationer. D

De flesta av oss begriper att EU inte kan tillåta invandring i vilken omfattning som helst, men inget mål rättfärdigar alla medel.  Det måste finnas gränser för vad unionen kan göra för att hejda människor som flyr eller lockas av möjligheten bygga ett nytt och bättre liv i Europa. Därför måste EU sätta stopp för det som för närvarande händer i Tunisien.  Från Bryssel kommer besvärade bortförklaringar. Förra årets omhuldade ”strategiska partnerskap” mellan EU och Tunisien anses ha blivit en succé.  Antalet migranter som lyckats ta sig över Medelhavets centrala delar har enligt Frontex minskat med 61 procent och Italiens Giorgia Meloni, som drev fram avtalet, hyllas över stora delar av Europa och i nästan alla politiska läger.  När Storbritanniens Keir Starmer nyligen besökte Rom applåderade han politiken och hoppades på tätt samarbete med Italien i migrationsfrågor. Uppgörelsen innebär att EU ger Tunisien olika former av ekonomiskt stöd i utbyte mot skärpt bevakning av landets kuster o