Tre nyckelfaktorer som talar för att storbolagsindexet går mot en explosiv rörelse – och ett nytt ”all time high”.

 

US Stocks are trading near all-time highs, and at valuations that appear the priciest in years. 

The index traded in recent days at more than 22 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, its highest multiple since April 2021.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-market-magnificent-seven-earnings-valuation-dae61698

Stocks are expensive, but their rally can continue for at least another year. Here’s why.

Momentum tends to trump valuation over the short term

Stocks’ stellar run over the past 18 months has given investors plenty of reasons to celebrate. But it has also saddled them with some of the most expensive valuations in recent memory.

The fact that stocks are priced so richly relative to fundamentals like earnings has started to make some investors, including hedge-fund star David Einhorn, 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/einhorn-says-its-most-expensive-stock.html

wary of putting more money to work.

But over longer periods, high valuations have exerted a greater influence. 

Valuations in the past typically weren’t as high as they are today.

Based on Ramsey’s calculation of normalized earnings per share for the S&P 500, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 stood at 31.4 as of the end of September.

That’s higher than at any other period featured in Leuthold’s analysis, although readings from March 2021 and June 1997 came close.

Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch 29 October 2024

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-are-expensive-but-their-rally-can-continue-for-at-least-another-year-heres-why-52a50451

Bortsett från börsraset i augusti i år har storbolagsindexet sedan i våras handlats i en konsolidering, ett mer eller mindre sidledes intervall

Stockholmsbörsens långsiktiga trend är fortsatt stigande. 

En stark rörelse som följs av en paus eller konsolidering tenderar att följas upp av ytterligare en stark rörelse i trendens riktning. 

Även om det lockar att trycka på säljknappen gäller det att som investerare ha mycket på fötterna för att gå emot den starka trenden. 

Det är i stället mycket enklare att haka på trenden och i OMXS30:s fall är den tydligt stigande. 

Det talar för att Stockholmsbörsen troligen handlas på nya rekordnivåer i vinter.

Semir Hasanbegovic DI 28 oktober 2024

https://www.di.se/analys/borsen-laddar-for-utbrott-och-nytt-rekord/