Englund

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AM-b8P1yj9w

A decade ago, China became the world’s largest importer of agricultural goods. Its arable land has been shrinking due to degradation and overuse.  Breakneck development has also made China the world’s largest energy importer: It buys three-quarters of its oil abroad at a time when America has become a net energy exporter. China’s water situation is particularly grim Much of China’s fresh water is concentrated in areas, such as Tibet A growing source of tension in the Himalayas is China’s plan to dam key waters before they reach India, leaving that country (and Bangladesh) the losers.  Hal Brands 29 december 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-29/china-s-water-shortage-is-scary-for-india-thailand-vietnam Hal Brands is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, and a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute

KRÖNIKA · Viruset bet inte på börsen, inte inflationen heller.  Börsåret slutade 34 procent upp. De senaste tre åren har börsen nästan fördubblat kurserna. Det har varit de bästa tre börsåren på raken sedan den obekymrade tiden före den globala finanskrisen. Pandemin började med börsras men sedan botten den 23 mars 2020 har börsen stigit med 116 procent. Kommer inflationen till slut att leda till mer räntehöjningar än börsen tål? Det kanske egentligen är bäst att inte skriva alls. Och att bara satsa pengar man inte behöver på börsen. Kristina Lagerström SvT 30 december 2021 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/ekonomi/kronika-varje-gang-jag-varnat-om-borskrasch-har-jag-haft-fel Margin Call - "Sell it all. Today." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISDgcB-J4fQ

Hon var på jobbintervju hos Skatteverket under handläggningen av flera skattemål.  Kammarrätten i Stockholms beslut och avgörandet var tydligt. Domaren hade varit jävig när hon som rättens ordförande dömde i skattemålen i förvaltningsdomstolen Till hennes förmån talar att hon gått till chefsrådmannen och frågat om det fanns risk för jäv, utan att avrådas. Häpnadsväckande. Chefsrådmannens magkänsla för det uppenbara saknades tydligen. Det handlar här således inte om en omdömeslös kvinna utan om ett grundläggande fel inom myndigheterna.  Det gäller på flera håll i vårt lilla land. Bengt Dennis kunde sålunda gå raka vägen från Riksbanken till SEB efter att SEB kunna lösa in sina utlandslån. Det borde naturligtvis finnas förbud eller i vart fall karantänsregler som försvårar för personer att dra fördel av en tjänst när de går vidare. Nu underkänns ett 40-tal domar i förvaltningsdomstolen - en rättsskandal https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/nu-underkanns-ett-40-tal-doma-i.html

En domare i förvaltningsdomstolen var på jobbintervju hos Skatteverket under handläggningen av flera skattemål. Sex dagar efter att domaren dömt till myndighetens favör fick hon chefstjänsten. Nu underkänns ett 40-tal domar där företagare och enskilda har körts över på grund av jäv. ”Det är en rättsskandal”, säger advokat Nils Sköld, som tillsammans med Advokatsamfundet varnar för att opartiskheten i rättssystemet undergrävs. På Luciadagen kom Kammarrätten i Stockholms beslut och avgörandet var tydligt. Domaren hade varit jävig när hon som rättens ordförande dömde i skattemålen i förvaltningsdomstolen samtidigt som hon sökte jobb på Skatteverket. Nu ogiltigförklaras ett 40-tal domar och målen återförvisas till förvaltningsrätten för ny prövning. Domaren hade under handläggningen av de aktuella skattemålen sökt jobb som sektionschef hos Skatteverket och var på anställningsintervju den 11 juni 2021. Sex dagar efter att hon hade dömt till Skatteverkets fördel mot företagarna i skattemålen

 Under flyktingvågen 2015 tog lilla Filipstad emot 2 000 nyanlända. Mycket förändrades, och många protesterade när den finaste patriciervillan byggdes om till moské. Alex Schulman åkte dit och besökte moskén – där bodde nämligen en gång hans morfar och mormor.  DN 2021-11-08  https://www.dn.se/kultur/alex-schulman-atervander-till-filipstad-i-morfars-bibliotek-ar-det-bonestund/ Som barn tillbringade han otaliga somrar hos sina morföräldrar, författaren Sven Stolpe och hans hustru Karin. –  Min mormor och morfar bodde på Allégatan här uppe och jag var här ofta. Det är nästan som en del av mitt dna på ett sätt. Under 2015 var Filipstad en av de kommuner som tog emot flest flyktingar i förhållande till sin folkmängd https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/alex-schulman-aldrig-sett-en-kommunperson-sa-nedslagen Anna Hedenmo möter Alex Schulman i ett samtal. https://www.svtplay.se/video/23592046/min-sanning/min-sanning-sasong-12-alex-schulman

U.S. imports of goods rose 4.7% to $252.4 billion U.S. goods exports slipped 2.1% to $154.7 billion.  MarketWatch 29 December 2021 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-trade-deficit-in-goods-jumps-17-5-to-record-97-8-billion-as-imports-surge-11640785256

On a cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio, the US market is more overvalued than in 1929, 1973 and 2007. Inflation is rising, central bank stimulation fading and Omicron is upsetting the already fragile apple cart. Not exactly the Goldilocks scenario is it? The relative case for equities — that they are at least cheap relative to bond yields — also won’t last long when bond yields start to rise. 2022 looks like it comes with an unusually wide range of possible outcomes. Merryn Somerset Webb FT 28 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/307f729c-4ada-445c-a2cd-e1caa2e99e0c Turn off the liquidity taps and the ability to believe the impossible evaporates Merryn Somerset Webb FT 26 October 2018 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2018/10/turn-off-liquidity-taps-and-ability-to.html

Massive bond-buying programmes launched by central banks including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank during the depths of the pandemic have helped to push borrowing costs to historic lows.  Coupled with the vast amounts of cash working through the financial system, the environment was extremely favourable for companies to tap new investors and lenders, bankers said. FT 28 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/c656c3da-f5db-41f4-942b-1ed6de9c2d60 Corporate debt has surged $1.3 trillion since the start of 2020 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/corporate-debt-has-surged-13-trillion.html

It’s encouraging that the bond market expects inflation to barely exceed 2% five years from now and the Fed’s interest rates not to rise even that high. Labor’s share of GDP held stable at somewhat higher than 60% for the five decades after World War II. But it started to decline sharply after the dotcom bubble burst in 2000 and fell further after the financial crisis in 2008.  For several years under President Barack Obama, part-time workers’ wages lagged far behind those of full-time workers, and also behind inflation This malaise led to populist anger and the ascent of President Donald Trump. Data produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta show a sharp decline in real wages. Since the pandemic, margins  now surging back to reach a level of profitability never before seen. The story of inflation in 2022 will also be the story of whether the regime of capitalism is really changing and returning to an arguably healthier balance. John Authers Bloomberg 27 December 2021 https://www.

On the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union, we asked historians, economists and political analysts why it happened, and what lessons it holds for Russia’s future. Bloomberg 24 December 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-24/what-caused-the-soviet-union-to-collapse-30-years-ago Anders Åslund var väl den som var mest klarsynt https://frivarld.se/medarbetare/anders-aslund/ Det vore synd om västvärlden skulle drabbas av en djup ekonomisk kris just när Sovjetväldet håller på att vittra sönder ekonomiskt, politiskt och moraliskt. Rolf Englund, Den Stora bankkraschen, Timbro, 1983 https://www.internetional.se/re82bok.htm

 No longer driven by minimal inflation in prices, negligible interest rates, steadily falling bond yields, growing inequality, and fantastic returns on asset prices, it’s possible that the return of rising prices in 2021 will at last force a new way of doing things. With inflation a serious practical problem for the first time in a generation, the assumptions that “there is no alternative” to stocks, or that independent central banks can defend confidence in the currency, finally come into question. In theory, the explosion of inflation this year should have driven a big rise in bond yields, and might well have dragged down share prices. Nothing of the kind has happened. John Authers Bloomberg 23 December 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-23/john-authers-looks-to-2022-plus-a-selection-of-his-best-columns-from-2021

12-month increase in the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, jumped to 5.7% in November from 5% in the prior month.  The core PCE rate that strips out food and energy surged to 4.7% from 4.1% on an annual basis. That’s the highest rate since 1982. MarketWatch Dec. 23, 2021  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-latest-read-on-the-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-11640265116 USA-inflationen steg något mer än väntat https://www.di.se/nyheter/usa-inflationen-steg-nagot-mer-an-vantat/

The recovery is well on its way. The EU economy has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic path, but... We must deepen the reform agenda and accompany these transformations with large-scale investment in research, infrastructure, digitisation and defence. Prior to the pandemic, the EU’s existing fiscal rules were already in need of reform.  There is no doubt that we must bring down our levels of indebtedness. But we cannot expect to do this through higher taxes or unsustainable cuts in social spending, nor can we choke off growth through unviable fiscal adjustment. We need to have more room for manoeuvre and enough key spending for the future and to ensure our sovereignty.  Debt raised to finance such investments, which undeniably benefit the welfare of future generations and long-term growth, should be favoured by the fiscal rules, given that public spending of this sort actually contributes to debt sustainability over the long run. Mario Draghi and Emmanuel Macron FT 23 December 2021 h

 The former Treasury secretary explains to Bloomberg’s Stephanie Flanders how he came to the conclusion U.S. prices would skyrocket. You sounded the alarm early in the year and were considered a bit of a crank for doing so initially. But not anymore. What did you see that others didn’t see? Larry Summers: Stephanie, you know, I’ve been right this year, but there have been plenty of years when I’ve been wrong.  Flanders: If wages do go up, and it’s true that we haven’t seen as much as you might have expected in the last few months. But if they, if they do go up—the last 20 years we haven’t seen a follow through from higher wages to higher inflation. Even the Fed’s own model doesn’t include much response from inflation. So why do you think this time will be different? Bloomberg 23 december 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/transcript-larry-summers-gets-his-told-you-so-moment-on-inflation

From the chief medical adviser to regulators of energy, communications and water, its working relies on people and organisations whose standing depends partly on a degree of independence from politicians.  But when their views are controversial, the side that doesn’t like the pronouncement gibes that the person is unelected. The challenge is an ancient one. “Who will guard the guards themselves?” was the famous query of the satirical poet Juvenal in ancient Rome.  It has acquired new force, though, in modern democracies which rely on a vast apparatus of bureaucrats, agencies and experts to enable the elected government to do its job. FT 22 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/0c5c8d5e-811b-40aa-8cdb-f7e54bb6dea6

said Mark Gorton, the founder and chairman of high-frequency trading firm Tower Research Capital. The number of teenagers worth $20 million because they giddily loaded up on crypto can be hard on the ego.  One way to think of it is that it is a selective currency peg: Turkey will defend the value of the lira against the dollar, but only for certain retail accounts.  Another way to think of it is that it is a death-spiral currency peg: The ordinary way to defend a currency peg is to use your reserves of hard currency to buy your own currency and prop up the price; Turkey’s approach is apparently to print more lira the more the lira drops. That might not work! Matt Levine Bloomberg 22 December 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-22/wall-street-is-no-fun-anymore Kronkursförsvaret https://internetional.se/iccab92dir.htm

Chinese developers face $19.8 billion in maturing offshore, U.S.-dollar denominated bonds  in the first quarter, and $18.5 billion in the second The Nomura analysts pointed out another looming repayment deadline for Chinese real estate developers is deferred wages for construction workers, which are due before the Lunar New Year, which kicks off on Jan. 31. CNBC 22 December 2021 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/chinas-property-developers-have-more-than-big-bond-payments-coming-up.html  

 Kvinnan, som har kopplingar till Ryssland, har utelämnats till Danmark från Storbritannien och ska förhöras under dagen. Danske bank utreds i ett flertal länder efter att mer än 200 miljarder euro skickats genom bankens filial under perioden 2007–2015. DI/TT 22 december 2021 https://www.di.se/live/dansk-kvinna-misstanks-for-penningtvatt-pa-over-30-miljarder/ Historiskt åtal rycker närmare för Bonnesen SvD 30 november 2021 https://www.svd.se/historiskt-atal-rycker-narmare-for-bonnesen Beslut om åtal mot Bonnesen skjuts upp Swedbanks tidigare vd Birgitte Bonnesen har begärt, och beviljats, ytterligare tid för att yttra sig om utredningsmaterialet.  Realtid.se 2021-11-24 https://www.realtid.se/beslut-om-atal-mot-bonnesen-skjuts-upp Swedbank (Sparbanken och Föreningsbanken) https://www.internetional.se/swedbank.htm

 slashing clean and reliable baseload power in the middle of winter and during the worst energy crisis in Europe since the Second World War. Another three reactors will go at the end of 2022. It is closing good plants just as Vladimir Putin prepares an invasion force on Ukraine’s border, and restricts flows of natural gas as a tool of strategic leverage. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 21 December 2021 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/21/europes-energy-crisis-fast-turning-political-strategic-disaster/

 $214.8 billion last quarter. That was the largest shortfall since the third quarter of 2006.  3.7% of gross domestic product. That was the largest share since the fourth quarter of 2008 Still, the deficit remains below a peak of 6.3% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 as the United States is now a net exporter of crude oil and fuel. Reuters 21 December 2021 https://www.reuters.com/business/us-current-account-deficit-widens-biggest-15-years-q3-2021-12-21/ Inflation och handelsbalans. Englunds lag 2,0. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/04/inflation-och-handelsbalans-englunds.html

and any failures must be the fault of the Federal Reserve, passive investing or some other convenient scapegoat. Getting it right occasionally can be thanks to skill or luck, but doing so in the long run is an almost Herculean task that the data shows is beyond the ken of most humans. Robin Wigglesworth  FT 20 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/e87e5c7b-962f-4d91-912e-764cafd0ab01 Trillions: How a Band of Wall Street Renegades Invented the Index Fund and Changed Finance Forever by Robin Wiggleswort  Robin Wigglesworth unveils the vivid secret history of an invention Wall Street wishes was never created, bringing to life the characters behind its birth, growth, and evolution into a world-conquering phenomenon. This engrossing narrative is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand modern finance--and one of the most pressing financial uncertainties of our time. https://bookshop.org/books/trillions-how-a-band-of-wall-street-renegades-invented-the-index-fund-and-changed-fi

Marknaden räknar med att det inte går att höja räntan mer än till cirka 2 procent. Sedan tar det stopp.  För stora länder med en egen valuta finns det ingen anledning att gråta.  Vi har blivit så skuldsatta att ränteläget knappast kan ändras på något avgörande sätt.  Henrik Mitelman DI 20 december 2021 https://www.di.se/analys/den-som-ar-satt-i-skuld-blir-fri/ US financial conditions are near the most accommodative on record The fact that companies have had little trouble listing shares publicly, or tapping lenders for new credit, underscores the extraordinary levels of cash sloshing through the global financial system and presents a puzzle for Fed policymakers seeking to cool down the economy and tame inflation.  One key reason why financial conditions remained so loose was because investors were betting that the Fed might not be able to increase interest rates as much as it hoped if economic growth slows  FT 23 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/2c73b1f4-b8c1-415b-8df0-237eff18

Tillsammans med två dotterbolag hade biltillverkaren sammanlagda skulder på över 13 miljarder kronor, varav drygt 9,4 miljarder saknades när konkursen var ett faktum. https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/saabs-konkurs-avslutas-sa-mycket-blev-over/ Saabs konkursförvaltare har fått 367 miljoner i arvode Det var pinsamt att höra Maud Olofsson berätta om vilka bra säkerheter som Spyker hade ställt gentemot staten. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/saabs-konkursforvaltare-har-fatt-367.html

The huge public-borrowing binge needed to fund spending during the Covid-19 crisis is forcing a rethink of the European Union’s rules governing debt and deficits, exposing a political fault line over economic theory. The quarter-century-old Stability and Growth Pact is contained in a treaty, so any amendments would have to be ratified by 27 legislatures. The Stability and Growth Pact was forged at the dawn of the euro at the behest of the Germans, who sought a means to enforce spending restraint on their more profligate neighbors to the south. It caps deficits at 3% of gross domestic product and debt at 60% of GDP.  In 2021 the European Commission activated an “escape clause” in the agreement, freeing countries to spend extraordinary sums to salve the human and economic pain of Covid. Nations must now agree on what will happen when the suspension ends in 2023. Italians and the French, and including Spain and others, argues the pact’s arbitrary constraints act as a brake on economic gro

 Det beror bland annat på det han kallar ”flodvågen” av förvärvsbolag som har bidragit till ”uppskruvade prisbilder”. Peter Gyllenhammar anser att det är märkligt att marknaden värderar vissa förvärvsbolag till 30-40 gånger rörelsevinsten samtidigt som de själva värderar förvärvsobjekten till 6-10 gånger vinsten.  DI 20 december 2021 https://www.di.se/nyheter/miljardarens-fastighetsvarning-likheter-med-kedjebrev/

Rutte, who often relished his casting as Europe’s Mr No, now intends to be in the vanguard of European integration. The four coalition parties now say they are open to the “modernisation” of the EU’s fiscal rules as long as its promotes fiscal sustainability and economic convergence. It is vague, but in line with the slightly more flexible approach promised by the new German coalition government. Rutte’s fourth administration also wants to become an advocate of deeper integration, such as ending national vetoes in foreign policy, strengthening the role of the European parliament and creating EU-wide carbon and digital taxes. “The Netherlands used to be this last stalwart of neoliberal, free trade, light-touch government thinking,” FT 21 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/6cb97ae0-7eca-4551-b494-e653d2092ae4

 " if a key support level breaks to the downside, it could trigger so-called “negative gamma,” pushing markets lower in a material way... " support levels are marked by early December lows for all three indexes —  4,513 for the S&P 500,  15,085 for the Nasdaq and  2,130 for the Russell 2000.  MarketWatch 20 December 2021 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-big-levels-to-watch-for-the-s-p-500-and-nasdaq-expect-wild-trade-if-they-break-warns-this-strategist-11640002294

The remaining explanations are markets and politics. Narayana Kocherlakota Bloomberg 20 december 2021  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-20/the-fed-s-pivot-is-the-opposite-of-hawkish Is the Fed Playing Politics With Interest Rates? If so, look out for a 1970s-style inflationary spiral. Narayana Kocherlakota Bloomberg 5 November 2021 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/dow-s-500-and-nasdaq-hit-all-time-highs.html  

The foresight of Monnet — one of the architects of the EU — has held up in this crisis as it has in past ones. The pandemic helped the EU cross the Rubicon of common borrowing for fiscal transfers. For two decades from the 1990s on, Europe’s governing parties — the centre-right but also the centre-left, notably under Gerhard Schröder in Germany — were seduced by a form of market fundamentalism That governing philosophy was already wearing thin after years of fiscal austerity, under-investment, and the growing threat of climate change. The pandemic put the nail in the coffin: the obvious imperative of smart state intervention, to manage the health crisis and to support livelihoods through lockdowns, allows Europe to embrace the social market economy again. Martin Sandbu 19 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/c6760232-80cc-4a25-a1a1-7315f620b63c A new Washington consensus The conversion by the IMF and World Bank to support the activist state would put Saul of Tarsus to shame Martin

 but directed them to issue credit to less indebted property groups in an effort to relieve the pressure on the real estate sector.  The industry is estimated to account for about one-third of total economic output in the country. Chinese creditors sue Evergrande for claims totalling $13bn  “There is no way we can repay so many creditors with our limited resources,” said an Evergrande executive, who asked not to be identified. “We will let judges decide who gets paid and how much.” Evergrande has also issued offshore bonds totalling $19bn. FT 16 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/941c0e96-ebf1-42ee-97ec-ad6764f35cbf

Tio år har gått sedan Saab Automobile försattes i konkurs. Arbetet med konkursen pågår än  https://www.svd.se/saabs-konkursforvaltare-har-fatt-367-miljoner Konkursförvaltaren hoppas att arbetet med Saab Automobiles konkurs för tio år sedan ska kunna avslutas under 2021. Sammanlagt saknas miljarder kronor, så det är bara en viss del av skulderna som kommer kunna betalas tillbaka. SvD TT 9 december 2021 https://www.svd.se/saab-konkursen-kan-avslutas-fore-nyar/i/senaste/om/naringsliv Det var pinsamt att höra Maud Olofsson berätta om vilka bra säkerheter som Spyker hade ställt gentemot staten. När det nya företaget går i konkurs kommer nog dessa säkerheter att visa sig värdelösa. Englund blogg 2010-01-29 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/10/de-statliga-garantierna-for-lanen-till.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-is-an-etf-2019-10-09 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp

 With inflation running at a 39-year high, finding the right balance between stabilizing prices and supporting the economy will be challenging. “Pushing rates up that significantly could be pretty hard without causing much more tightening in financial conditions than they probably want to see,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. “What the market’s telling you is the Fed doesn’t have much scope to go beyond two or three hikes CNBC 16 December 2021 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/16/the-federal-reserve-still-has-a-lot-of-questions-to-answer-about-its-long-term-strategy.html

 China Fortune Land Development Co. said it has been unable to get hold of a money manager that it gave $313 million for investment. Fortune Land has “lost contact” with China Create Capital Ltd., a British Virgin Islands-registered firm to which it handed over $313 million in 2018 in hopes of receiving an annual return of 7%-10% through 2022 Fortune  defaulted on a $530 million dollar bond in March this year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-16/money-manager-with-313-million-from-china-developer-disappears A Sunny Place for a Shady Online Business https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-sunny-place-for-shady-online-business.html

US stock markets are once again sailing to record peaks, yet under the surface, a strong tide is pulling down the share prices of hundreds of companies to their lowest levels of the past 12 months. Earlier this month 1,380 stocks traded on US stock exchanges hit their lowest levels in a year. Just five stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla and Google parent Alphabet — have accounted for more than half of the S&P 500’s returns since April FT 17 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/d248d1af-261e-47c8-9a5f-0d264cb9f83b  

 Generally, it’s hard to bring an inflation spike under control unless interest rates rise to a point where they’re above the rate of inflation. That, at least, is the learning of history.  John Authers Bloomberg December 17, 2021   https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-17/inflation-and-omicron-end-2021-s-initial-promise-of-normality-onward-to-2022

He wants to raise living standards while limiting the ‘barbaric growth of capital.’ Good luck. The long-term aim of Mr. Xi’s demolition effort is to pivot the economy away from an overreliance on housing and infrastructure investment and toward a greater emphasis on domestic consumption.  The problem has always been what economic model would come next and how the Communist Party would manage an inevitably messy transition. WSJ 16 December 2021 https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-doesnt-know-property-real-estate-housing-bubble-investment-evergrande-cewc-china-11639669010  

 The so-called Asset Purchase Program will double to 40 billion euros a month https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-16/ecb-boosts-conventional-bond-purchases-to-smooth-crisis-exit

 Hillary Clintons ögonvitor skiftar mot rosa, samma nyans som hennes figursydda kavaj och läppstift.  Clinton håller det segertal som hon aldrig fick tillfälle att ge efter det amerikanska presidentvalet 2016. Videon, som under den gångna veckan fått viral spridning, är en del av en serie onlinelektioner man kan köpa från en amerikansk föreläsningssajt.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qqqRpAzVRA Samma vecka som klippet med Clinton blir viralt meddelar Bianca Ingrosso att hon efter tio säsonger lämnar ”Wahlgrens värld”. Essy Klingberg SvD 15 december 2021 https://www.svd.se/alla-varningslampor-gar-igang-samtidigt Så bra att hon fick användning för sitt segertal. På valnatten smet hon iväg utan att tacka valarbetarma. Hon hade inte förberett något nederlagstal. Deplorables https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basket_of_deplorables

 to 0.9% by the end of 2022, to 1.6% by the end of 2023 and 2.1% by the end of 2024. many in the markets think that the Fed won’t be able to raise policy rates anywhere close to 2.5%. MarketWatch 15 December 2021 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-accelerates-taper-of-bond-purchases-eyes-three-interest-rate-hikes-in-2022-11639595645 If the Fed follows recent practice and raises rates a quarter point at each meeting starting in mid-2022, it might add up to a 1.25% hike by the end of next year. If inflation does what I think it will do, that will still leave negative real interest rates of -3%, still extraordinarily accommodative.  But would markets tolerate anything tougher? Probably not. John Mauldin 10 December 2021 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/imagine-you-are-jerome-powell-in-early.html Near Zero until 2023. Really? The market will force the Fed to act earlier, I think. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/06/near-zero-until-2023-really.html

Oatlys debut på New York-börsen blev succéartad och hela företaget värderas nu till närmare 100 miljarder kronor. Det innebär jackpott för flera av bolagets svenska chefer, grundare och investerare.  Brödraparet Björn Öste och Rickard Öste äger nu aktier värda 4,3 miljarder kronor. Oatlys börsvärde placerar bolaget i samma storleksklass som industriklenoder som SCA och SKF på Stockholmsbörsen.   DI 21 maj 2021 https://www.di.se/digital/svenskar-blir-miljardarer-pa-oatlys-succenotering/ Kursen har rasat med över 50 procent sedan noteringen. DN 15 December 2021 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/oatlys-vd-efter-borsfiaskot-vi-ar-annorlunda/

 US government bonds that are indexed to inflation BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, said it expected inflation will persist at higher levels than those before the coronavirus pandemic, and has an overweight position in Tips.  FT 15 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/76122770-a4ac-4cee-a045-fc1a298c1d5e

 CNBC 14 December 2021 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/14/jim-cramer-get-used-to-shrinking-valuations-for-high-flying-stocks.html How the Price-To-Sales Ratio Works https://www.investopedia.com/articles/fundamental/03/032603.asp

 Malta, home to hundreds of betting sites and dubious oversight, is a target of an international money laundering crackdown. Bloomberg December 14, 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-12-14/malta-europe-s-online-gambling-capital-troubled-by-money-laundering-crackdown What the heck is happening in the Cayman Islands? Almost 20 per cent of banks’ cross-border dollar funding is now supplied by entities based in the Cayman Islands Gillian Tett 10 October 2019 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/10/what-heck-is-happening-in-cayman-islands.html Världens dollarmiljardärer gör skatteinbetalningar som motsvarar mellan 0 och 0,6 procent av deras förmögenheter. – Vi har stärkta bevis för att de allra rikaste betalar väldigt lite i skatt, betydligt mindre i procent jämfört med andra grupper i samhället. Expertgruppen föreslår därför en global miniminivå för förmögenhetsskatt på 2 procent för världens 3 000 rikaste människor. En sådan skatt skulle generera ungefär 250 miljarder dol

 “I find the idea that very gradual increases of rates will be sufficient to contain inflation to be somewhat implausible, given what is happening in the labor market,” Summers said. He said he foresaw a GDP gap of about 3%, but the stimulus provided aid equivalent to 14% of GDP. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers Market Watch 15 December 2021 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/summers-says-fed-will-struggle-to-engineer-soft-landing-as-he-frets-about-spontaneous-deflating-in-markets-11639561649

 Det är antagligen dina boomer-föräldrar som tjatar om hur inflationen betalade av deras skulder  Men verkligheten är att det är löneökningar som minskar din skuldbörda - både genom att göra räntorna lättare att betala, och genom att ge mer utrymme för amorteringar.  Sedan vi släppte kronan fri under 90-talskrisen så har den ekonomiska paradigmen ändrats.  https://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2021/12/utan-stora-loneokningar-gor-inflationen.html

Vad vi hittills vet är att jetströmmarna blir alltmer vågiga och slingriga.  Det kan ge upphov till kallare och varmare klimat i vissa områden samt köldknäppar som nyligen skett i Sverige och övriga Skandinavien SvD 14 december 2021 https://www.svd.se/extremvarmen-i-sibirien-nagot-ar-helt-galet The Omega-Shaped Jet Stream Responsible for Europe’s Heatwave https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-omega-shaped-jet-stream-responsible.html

Den 19 november 1992 gav regering och Riksbank upp och släppte kronkursen. Jag /Kristina Lagerström/  var i Rosenbad och hörde dåvarande statsministern Carl Bildts sammanbitna ”Ett misslyckande ska kallas ett misslyckande”. Det är svårt att nu nästan 30 år senare beskriva den uppskruvade stämningen i maktens korridorer hösten 1992. Men försvaret av den fasta kronkursen betraktades som ett krig. Seniora ekonomijournalister (inte jag…) som eventuellt funderade i kritiska banor kring kronförsvaret vågade inte skriva en bokstav om det. Det skulle betraktas som landsförräderi. Inflationen har till och med underskridit målet många gånger. Och när inflationen gick över treprocentsstrecket 2008 tog Riksbanken i för mycket och höjde räntan bara några dagar innan den globala finanskrisen brakade lös. SvT 14 december 2021 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/ekonomi/det-varsta-riksbanken-varit-med-om "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing" Vi har en väldigt dål

 -- a category that makes up a third of the CPI basket of goods and services prices -- is up 3.9% from November 2020.  That’s the most in 14 years but still pales in comparison to many private-sector metrics. That’s caught the attention of prominent voices like Lawrence Summers and Bill Ackman. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-13/u-s-home-price-surge-looks-much-tamer-in-government-cpi-report

Nils Åkesson DI 13 december 2021 https://www.di.se/analys/fed-s-talamod-ar-slut-nu-splittras-centralbankerna-i-tva-lager/ NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/09/nobody-knows-anything.html

 ... since it defies the textbook expectation that investors would demand higher payouts in return. Ten-year yields on inflation-linked bonds fell to an all-time low of minus 1.25% last month before rebounding to about minus 1%.  Taken at face value, that shows investors expect 10-year yields --trading at 1.44% Monday -- to trail inflation by about 1% annually over the next decade.  Bloomberg 13 December 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-13/bond-traders-stare-at-worst-real-returns-since-paul-volcker-era

Buy bonds because the stocks are so high.

First, the question is not whether some of the more powerful drivers of inflation will lose their potency; they certainly will. It is whether this happens after they plant the seeds for a broader inflation dynamic, which they are already doing.   Second, the question is not whether this broader inflation dynamic will eventually reverse; it will. Rather, it is about limiting the damage that occurs during and after such a reversal. Mohamed A. El-Erian Bloomberg 12 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-12/fed-meeting-central-bank-needs-to-go-beyond-doubling-its-taper-rate Can the Fed Overcome Its Transitory Policy Mistake? Mohamed A. El-Erian Project Syndicate 2 Decenber 2021 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/can-fed-overcome-its-transitory-policy.html

The real rate “is arguably the most fundamental indicator of the stance of monetary policy,” wrote economists Christina Romer and David Romer in a 2004 paper. WSJ 12 December 2021 https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-surge-pushes-u-s-real-interest-rates-into-more-deeply-negative-territory-11639321204

 Omicron, sticky inflation, Fed lift-off, China’s Evergrande slump, Taiwan, a run on emerging markets, hard Brexit, a fresh euro crisis, and rising food prices in a tinder-box Middle East — all these feature in a rogues’ gallery of risks. Some things might go better than expected too, of course. Governments may decide to keep fiscal support in place. China’s latest Five Year Plan could catalyze stronger investment. Pandemic savings might fund a global spending splurge. Recent history, from the taper tantrum of 2013 to 2018’s stocks selloff, shows how a tightening Fed spells trouble for markets. Political Turmoil in Europe Bloomberg 13 december 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-13/omicron-inflation-evergrande-10-biggest-risks-to-the-global-economy-in-2022

Greece ECB after March the vast bond-buying scheme launched in response to the pandemic is expected to end. When it stops net purchases under the PEPP, the central bank is expected to continue buying bonds under the longer-standing Asset Purchase Programme.  But this scheme is barred from buying junk bonds. A Greek official said the country hoped to avoid another Deauville   FT 12 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/f702bc0e-2769-4cdd-ad89-7186ac2cb6e3 The euro zone's decision to impose losses on holders of Greek government bonds has been an unmitigated disaster  breaking the unwritten rule that sovereign bonds from a developed economy are risk-free  Simon Nixon, WSJ 7 October 2011 https://www.internetional.se/basel.htm#doomlop

 Not since Alan Greenspan’s time has the U.S. central bank tried to navigate the economy back to price stability from too-high inflation. Powell’s challenge is to try to curb price pressures without large costs to employment or growth “They are in a difficult position,” said Jeremy Stein, professor of economics at Harvard University and a Fed governor from 2012 to 2014. There’s just a tremendous amount of interest-rate sensitivity in markets.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-11/massive-u-s-debts-could-trap-powell-as-fed-fights-inflation If the Fed follows recent practice and raises rates a quarter point at each meeting starting in mid-2022, it might add up to a 1.25% hike by the end of next year. If inflation does what I think it will do, that will still leave negative real interest rates of -3%, still extraordinarily accommodative. But would markets tolerate anything tougher? Probably not. John Mauldin 10 December 2021 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/imagine-

Should we still worry about government debt levels, or have we discovered (by some fluke) that we never needed to worry about this? I am generally open minded, but I do have some strong suspicions in this particular debate. On fiscal policy and the idea that government debt becomes problematic at some precise level, the events of 2020-21 have demonstrated that much of the conventional thinking was wrong. Far more important is what the debt is for. Debt incurred to prevent a collapse in economic activity is quite different from debt incurred simply to fund an overly ambitious government’s agenda. On monetary policy, it was clear even before the pandemic that the post-2008 world of endless central-bank generosity had outlived its usefulness. We have long needed to get back to a relationship where inflation-adjusted interest rates bear some resemblance to potential GDP growth rates. Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK treasury minister, Project

It’s threatening to drive food prices, which are near record levels, even higher and boost costs for households that are already suffering from surging prices for other commodities.  Bloomberg 11 december 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-11/bird-flu-is-raging-adding-to-the-risks-for-food-inflation A bird flu called H7N9 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2017/05/a-bird-flu-called-h7n9.html The World Is Not Ready for the Next Pandemic Time Magazine, 4 May 2017 https://www.internetional.se/pandemic.htm#1705H7N9 Polio upptäckt i avloppsvatten: ”Lokala utbrott kan få stora följder” Expressen TV 12 augusti 2022 https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/polio-upptackt-i-avloppsvatten-lokala-utbrott-kan-fa-stora-foljder/  

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest  is merely the tip of a vast iceberg of speculation that has grown to monstrous proportions over the past year. It is now starting to melt a little. “We think 2021 has earned its place in the books as the wildest and most speculative year in US stock market history, eclipsing even 1929 and 1999. That doesn’t mean 2022 will bring a panic or a crash, maybe just a degree of sobriety,” Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group argued. For more than a decade, the dominant theme has been “buy the dip”. Government bond yields are therefore likely to remain negative in real, inflation-adjusted terms for years to come.  Robin Wigglesworth FT 10 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/31f60297-fe2b-4656-97a6-96b88a26530e Era of quantitative easing is drawing to a close arguably the greatest monetary policy experiment since John Law began dabbling with fiat paper money in France Robin Wigglesworth, FT 8 December 2016 https://www.internetional.se/bondsne

This in turn reflects an economy in which spending is more or less back to the prepandemic trend but production is constrained both by bottlenecks and by the withdrawal of several million Americans from the labor force. So how long will elevated inflation last? The secret answer (don’t tell anyone) is that we don’t know. I still don’t see any evidence that 1970s-type stagflation Paul Krugman NYT 10 December 2021 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/opinion/inflation-economy.html If This Is Peak Inflation, What’s the Path Back to 2%? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/if-this-is-peak-inflation-whats-path.html

 But they might not include ending access to the Swift system. Most economic sanctions used by US presidents are implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act The list is maintained by the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Treasury.  “Swift is just one mechanism. There are other means to do direct payments between banks. They could go back to using telexes, as they did in the past.” John Dizard FT 10 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/21a9b239-f68c-4821-9586-8d60b8c044f0

 In understanding the Fed’s thinking, it’s important to remember monetary policy is an iterative process.  The Federal Open Market Committee members never get a blank slate. They can’t wipe the economy clean and start over. Choices their predecessors made years and even decades ago govern what they can do now. For example, the Fed’s decisions in 2008–2009 to drop short-term rates to near zero and then launch quantitative easing bond buying programs were unprecedented at the time. But they “worked” well enough to keep the wheels on. The economy survived. That being said, correlation is not causation. I maintained then and I believe now that the recovery was due to businesses, both small and large, adapting to the new climate. Federal Reserve policy was a distant second. But the problem is, Fed officials thought their policies were responsible for the recovery.  Imagine, then, you are Jerome Powell in early 2020. You’re already struggling to deal with massive debt, bond market liquidity

 The world was preoccupied with the immediate aftermath of 9/11. But exactly three months later, on 11 December, the World Trade Organization (WTO) was at the centre of an event that was to cast as strong a shadow over the 21st century, changing more people's lives and livelihoods around the world than the attacks on America. Yet few know it even happened, let alone its date. China's admission to the World Trade Organization changed the game for America, Europe and most of Asia, and indeed for any country in possession of industrially valuable resources, such as oil and metals. China began its ascent to its current status as the world's second biggest economy - and is on a seemingly inevitable path to becoming the world's biggest. Indeed the US trade representative responsible for negotiating China's WTO deal, Charlene Barshefsky, told a Washington International Trade Association panel this week that China's economic model "somewhat disproved" the West

Sverigedemokraternas ledarskikt låter inte som att de har studerat vid ett från omvärlden avskilt institut för frasernas inlärning. Det är illa att man som medborgare finner det meningslöst att höra politiker intervjuas. Vi kan manuset på förhand och det saknar varje uns av märg, liv och intellektuell halt.  Man kunde lika gärna sätta dit en robot med ett mantra: vända på varje sten, människovärdet, mäns våld mot kvinnor, breda mitten, gängen ska knäckas, integrationen, klimatnödläget.  Politikerna resonerar så gott som aldrig om hur de kommit fram till sina svar, diskuterar inte innebörden i sina begrepp (vad är till exempel integration?).  Deras tal är fyllt av abstraktioner så nötta att de saknar innebörd. Lena Andersson SvD 11 december 2021 https://www.svd.se/sd-gor-ratt-har-fel-och-ar-farliga Jag anser det vara justitiemord att döma Jean-Claude Arnault till fängelse  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/11/i-f-en-fard-fortsatter-katarina.html

 De grundläggande problemen med vind- och solel att denna el skapar instabila nät med risken för nätkollaps samt  att mängden vind- och sol-el som kan levereras är som minst när den behövs som mest (en kall vinterdag). Kärnkraften är den säkraste och renaste formen av energiproduktion betydligt renare än både vind- och sol-el. Fjärde generationens kärnkraftverk är en typ av reaktor som är mycket säker. Det enda som kan ske om man får en störning är att processen stannar av. Fjärde generationens kraftverk ger ett avfall som är radioaktivt endast i några hundra år till skillnad från dagens kraftverks avfall som är radioaktivt i hundratusentals år. I dagens reaktorer utnyttjar man inte allt uran, bara ca fem procent, för att producera el och värme. Med fjärde generationen används etthundra procent. Det ger att det blir ett väldigt bra energiutbyte. Peter Ruding 2021-01-08  https://klimatupplysningen.se/elnatet-gar-mot-katastrof/ https://klimatupplysningen.se/om-oss/ ”Förbluffande tyst om

Efter Thessalonikikonferensen 2003 lovade EUs regeringschefer medlemskap i EU till de sex övriga länderna i västra Balkan (Albanien, Bosnien och Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Norra Makedonien och Serbien).  Detta ”Thessalonikilöfte” har förnyats flera gånger, nu senast den 6 oktober 2021 vid konferensen i slovenska Kranj. Samtalen om tillträde med Serbien och Montenegro är stoppade, och har inte ens börjat med Albanien och Norra Makedonien. Bosnien och Herzegovina väntar fortfarande på inbjudan, liksom Kosovo. EU och staterna på Balkan ser alla tillträde som den enda vägen framåt.  Karl-Peter Schwarz Svensk Tidskrift 10 december 2021 med fin karta https://www.svensktidskrift.se/karl-peter-schwarz-maktspel-pa-balkan/ Släpp in Balkan och Turkiet Byt kronan mot euron   Euron har för länge sedan bevisat sin styrka. DN-ledare 2009-09-19 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2016/07/slapp-in-balkan-och-turkiet-byt-kronan.html EU vill ingå stora samarbetsavtal med Georgien, Azerbajdzjan och Ar

The most recent Bloomberg survey of economists shows an expectation for headline CPI to retreat to 3.7% in 2022 and then 2.3% in 2023. That reflects remarkable confidence in inflation auto-correcting without much immediate Fed action. There’s been some easing in energy costs, but just as that starts to fade, housing is starting to cause headaches. Rent and what’s known as “owners’ equivalent rent” both increased 0.4% in November which comes out to an almost 5% annual rate. Brian Chappatta Bloomberg 10 december 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-10/november-cpi-if-this-is-peak-inflation-what-s-the-path-to-2

“black swan,” used to describe high-profile, but hard-to-predict and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations The phrase is sometimes used to describe the economic meltdown of 2008. Because of their character, it is suggested there’s not much we can do to avert them. Yet a recent article in the world’s best magazine, The Economist of London, challenges the focus of many pundits and analysts on black swans. “This kind of thinking makes things worse by encouraging fatalism, rejecting accountability, and giving the nod to short-termism and willful ignorance.”  We should be thinking more, The Economist suggests, about “gray rhinos.” In the world of government and policy, gray rhinos are “highly likely, high-impact risks that are a matter of when, not if,” the article states. Gray rhinos are a “metaphor for missing the big, obvious thing that’s coming at you.”  https://fcw.com/blogs/lectern/2021/01/kelman-covid-black-swans-gray-rhinos.aspx?m=1 Nicholas Nassim Taleb, The

Even by the forgiving standards of economic forecasting, that’s a miss of epic proportions Explanations come in two schools. The demand school blames President Biden and the Federal Reserve for administering too much stimulus. The supply school blames pandemic-related bottlenecks and supply chains. This inflation was made possible only by strong demand interacting with restricted supply. Greg Ip WSJ Dec. 8, 2021 https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-inflation-defies-the-old-models-11638978991  

values over the last 20 years that is unlikely to be repeated, with the bulk of riches going to the well-off, the over 60s and those living in London. Resolution Foundation said the surge in house prices since 2000 that has turned many homeowners into millionaires has been “driven primarily by falling interest rates.”  Bloomberg 9 December 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/u-k-homeowners-enjoy-a-4-trillion-untaxed-property-windfall Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken. Rolf Englund blogg 5 december 2009 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2014/08/skriande-uppenbart.html

The later the Fed is in reacting properly to inflationary developments, the greater the likelihood that – by having to hit the policy brakes hard – it will end up being the main cause of the transitory inflation pattern on which unfortunately it had bet part of its credibility.  But in being proved right in this way, the Fed would risk a damaging domestic recession, market volatility, and destabilizing spillovers for the global economy. Mohamed A. El-Erian Project Syndicate 2 Decenber 2021 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-federal-reserve-transitory-inflation-trap-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2021-12 The longer central bank ‘tapering’ is delayed, the more the risk of a disruptive markets move Mohamed A. El-Erian FT 29 September 2021

… the world is at the most dangerous strategic juncture since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. The West faces escalating threats of conflict on three fronts, each separate but linked by unknown levels of collusion: Russia’s mobilisation of a strike force on Ukraine’s border, China’s "dress rehearsal" for an attack on Taiwan, and Iran’s nuclear brinkmanship.  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 9 December 2021 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/09/wests-nightmare-war-three-fronts/

... the latest milestone in months-long financial drama that paves the way for a massive restructuring of the world’s most indebted developer. Fitch Ratings cut the developer to restricted default over its failure to meet two coupon payments after a grace period expired on Monday Beijing’s reluctance to bail out Evergrande sends a clear signal that the Communist Party won’t tolerate massive debt build-ups that threaten financial stability.  Bloomberg 9 december 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/evergrande-defaults-for-first-time-as-china-debt-strains-spread ‘The risk caused by a few real-estate firms in the short run would not undermine the market for the medium and the long run,’ said Yi Gang, governor of the People’s Bank of China.  “Companies issuing bonds overseas and their shareholders will be urged to properly handle their debt issues and meet their debt obligation in accordance with law and market principles,” he said. “This is a market event. It should be

The trade gap shrank to $67 billion  U.S. exports climbed to an all-time high of $224 billion.  Imports edged up less than 1% to $291 billion, a record high. MarketWatch 7 December 2021 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-trade-deficit-sinks-18-in-october-as-exports-surge-11638884607 12.1 million shipping containers left biggest U.S. ports empty Dec. 8, 2021  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americas-new-export-problem-12-1-million-shipping-containers-left-biggest-u-s-ports-empty-11638971489

 Evergrande looked likely to officially default for the first time. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/08/trading-of-chinese-property-developer-kaisa-shares-halted-in-hong-kong.html Beijing seeks to orchestrate slow-motion collapse for Evergrande Officials face challenge untangling heavily indebted group while minimising damage to property sector FT 7 December 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/21acda99-ee35-4f6d-8cfa-017d55e1bb10

 Jag tror väldigt mycket på den prognos vi har gjort… men osäkerheten är stor och vi får se framöver hur rätt vi kommer att ha i vår bedömning” Det sade vice riksbankschefen Per Jansson DI 8 december 2021 https://www.di.se/nyheter/per-jansson-inflationen-kan-toppa-pa-4-4-5-procent/