Englund

Balder är Stockholmsbörsens största fastighetsbolag, äger fastigheter för nästan 270 miljarder kronor är sedan 2011 även största ägare i den noterade nischbanken Norion, tidigare Collector Bank. Balder och Erik Selin har en total dominans över Norion Bank DI 17 februari 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/experten-fastighetsjatten-kan-tvingas-bli-bank/ Norion Bank överträtt myndighetens bestämmelse https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/norion-bank-overtratt-myndighetens.html

  Trump’s Tariffs Are a Mystery, So Investors Keep Buying Stocks Equities near records leave little cushion for trade war risk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-16/trump-s-tariffs-are-a-mystery-so-investors-keep-buying-stocks US Asks Europe What Kyiv Peacekeepers Should Do If Attacked The US has asked European nations to spell out what security guarantees they’re willing to provide Ukraine to ensure a lasting peace settlement and how allies should react if any troops they deploy were attacked by Russia. “It is worth listening to, and not getting offended by the statements of the American allies, indicating the need to increase defense spending,” Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.  He repeated that Poland won’t send its own troops to Ukraine as part of any future peacekeeping force, but would offer logistical support to nations which choose to. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-17/us-asks-europe-how-peacekeepers-should-react-under-russia-attac...

 SEB:s vd Johan Torgeby tror att utvecklingen kan få stora konsekvenser Han ser den explosiva utvecklingen för riskkapitalfondernas snabbväxande kusin: private credit, privata kreditfonder. De fungerar på liknande sätt som riskkapitalfonder, med kapital från externa investerare som pensions- och försäkringsbolag.  Skillnaden är att kreditfonder lånar ut pengar till företag snarare än köper aktier i dem.   Dagens industri 10 februari 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/bankernas-karnaffar-hotad-hur-mycket-kraft-som-helst/ What makes something “private credit,” as opposed to, uh, public credit? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/what-makes-something-private-credit-as.html

  U.S. banks are no longer living in the shadow of the 2023 crisis sparked by the collapse of regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and later First Republic.  But recent reports offer a glimpse of what could haunt them next: a long, slow grind. In particular, continued slow loan growth is becoming a drag on regional banks,  which have less exposure to the booming Wall Street trading and investment-banking business that is benefiting some of the very biggest megabanks. Wall Street Journal 31 January 2025 https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/wall-street-is-booming-but-banks-are-in-a-lending-rut-2b4f4a64 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 31 januari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/rolfs-lanktips-31-januari-2025.html

 Finansinspektionen bedömer preliminärt att Norion Bank överträtt myndighetens bestämmelser gällande åtgärder mot penningtvätt och finansiering av terrorism. Aktien faller tungt på Stockholmsbörsen och drar med sig huvudägaren Erik Selins fastighetsjätte Balder i fallet. Dagens industri 31 januari 2025 https://www.di.se/live/fi-slar-ned-pa-selins-nischbank-norion-aktien-rasar/ Nischbanken Norion, tidigare Collector https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/nischbanken-norion-tidigare-collector.html RE: Det är för aktörer av detta slag som kohorten av aktiemäklare, fastighetsbolagsdirektörer och bankekonomer upprepar sitt mantra; räntan bör sänkas, helst dubbelsänkas. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/erik-selins-nischbank-norion.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 31 januari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/rolfs-lanktips-31-januari-2025.html

Stora skillnader mellan den ekonomiska utvecklingen i Sverige och i en annan av bankens huvudmarknader – Baltikum. Där lånar både företag och hushåll mer pengar. SEB:s rörelsevinstn på drygt 46 miljarder kronor en historiskt hög nivå. Räntabilitet, eg kap: 13,2 procent (15,2) SvD 29 januari 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/QMKnn4/bankchef-riksbanken-och-regeringen-behover-gora-mer-for-svensk-ekonomi Bankernas bostadsutlåning har vuxit från 800 mrd 2002 till runt 4.000 miljarder kronor. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/bankernas-bostadsutlaning-har-vuxit.html De nordiska bankerna har tillsammans en utlåning på 450 miljarder kronor i Baltikum. Störst utlåning har Swedbank och SEB med 182 miljarder kronor respektive 139 miljarder kronor DN 2008-07-03 https://www.internetional.se/baltikum.htm European banks to reward investors with bumper €123bn in payouts Dividends have exceeded pre-crisis levels while lenders have topped up returns with buybacks However, valuations trail US peers and m...

 to acquire larger rival Mediobanca SpA in a deal valued at $13.9 billion Mediobanca considers the approach hostile  The situation is complicated by a web of cross-holdings in some of Italy’s largest financial services firms by two billionaire clans, the Del Vecchios and Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone.  The two families are major shareholders in Monte Paschi and Mediobanca. The Italian government plays a pivotal role, as it has been seeking to use the privatization of Monte Paschi as a way to create a domestic counterweight to the country’s two dominant banks, UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA.  Monte Paschi had long been considered a takeover target, after the government rescued the world’s oldest bank.  Röd öppning Red Opening 22 November 2023 Monte Paschi räddades av staten i samband med finanskrisen 2009 i spåren av stora kreditnedskrivningar och misslyckade derivataffärer. Under lång tid därefter hade banken svårt att vända sin situation, men under vd Luigi ...

Bank trade groups filed suit against the Federal Reserve, arguing that its annual stress-testing process violates the principles of the Administrative Procedure Act. The so-called Basel 3 Endgame aimed at completing the post-crisis framework that capital conservation buffers operate in was first watered down and then left in limbo  when its steward, Fed Vice-Chair Michael Barr, announced this month that he would step down.  Marc Rubinstein Bloomberg 23 January 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-23/the-100-billion-court-challenge-for-goldman-and-friends Fed’s Stress Tests https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/feds-stress-tests.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 23 januari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/rolfs-lanktips-23-januari-2025.html

  Sometime soon, it’ll probably have to subject its stress tests to public scrutiny, highlighting serious flaws in what has become its primary tool for ensuring the resilience of the banking system. Hopefully, it’ll take this as an opportunity for improvement. Failing that, it should reconsider its reliance on the exercise. Stress tests can be immensely valuable:  In 2009, they helped pull the global financial system back from collapse, shedding much-needed light on banks’ balance sheets and restoring the confidence needed to recover.  Less so, though, is the annual process that has followed, in which the Fed tries to assess whether banks can survive hypothetical worst-case scenarios. Bloomberg Editorial 17 January 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-17/fed-risks-making-stress-tests-on-banking-system-weaker    “Bank stress tests are fun. They are interesting. So is a game of Monopoly. Do not mistake either for reality,” https://englundmacro.b...

  Hon poängterade att även om räntorna nu är på väg ned så visar den senaste tiden att vi måste vara beredda även på perioder med högre räntor.  Aino Bunge påpekar att hushållens skulder som andel av ekonomin har fördubblats under drygt 20 år samt att  bankernas bostadsutlåning har vuxit från 800 miljarder kronor 2002 till dagens nivå runt 4.000 miljarder kronor. ”Makrotillsynsåtgärderna har värnat hushållens motståndskraft. Utan amorteringskrav, bolånetak och bankernas kreditprövningar hade hushållen varit sämre rustade att hantera den snabba uppgången i inflation och räntor.” Riksbankstoppen efterfrågar en bred översyn av bostads- och skattepolitiken som förbättrar balansen mellan utbud och efterfrågan på bostadsmarknaden.  Det skulle ge förutsättningar för en långsiktigt hållbar skuldutveckling i hushållssektorn. ”Att göra det lättare att låna löser inte de långsiktiga utmaningarna”, slog hon fast. Hans Bolander Dagens industri 16 januari 2025 https://www.di.se/ny...

History of Eurodollars Part 1: Cold War Origins https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/history-of-eurodollars-shadow-banking.html History of Eurodollars, Part 2: Defending the Dollar System https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/the-hidden-history-of-eurodollars-part-2-defending-the-dollar-system History of Eurodollars, Part 3: Spinning Out of Control https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-16/the-hidden-history-of-eurodollars-part-3-spinning-out-of-control

The rally in stocks testifies to just how scared investors in risk assets were about hikes, and how dependent risk markets remain on continuing cheap money.  Inflation is coming down, but very slowly and it remains above target.  Ongoing inflation is more or less entirely about services, as has been the case for a while.  The Big Four (JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo) posted stellar full-year results, second-best only to the stock market boom year of 2021.  Earnings reported so far feed hopes that bank stocks — badly rocked by the regional banking crisis of early 2023 — can return to outperforming the S&P 500 once more.  John Authers Bloomberg 16 januari 2025  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-16/trump-gets-a-break-from-final-biden-inflation-data   Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 16 januari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/rolfs-lanktips-16-januari-2025.html

  Nu krävs samarbete, skriver Linda Fagerlund, vd Danske Bank Sverige Danske Bank har identifierat områden som vi som bank kommer att fokusera på för att bidra till att stärka svensk konkurrenskraft DI 14 januari 2025 https://www.di.se/debatt/agera-nu-for-att-starka-sveriges-konkurrenskraft/ Marcus Wallenberg anser att staten och näringslivet måste gå hand i hand I sitt anförande på Folk och Försvars konferens pekade Marcus Wallenberg på hoten mot den europeiska fordonsindustrin från Kina.  ”Tyvärr så finns det ju tecken på att Europa har halkat efter i sin konkurrenskraft, framför allt mot Kina och USA” Hur viktigt är det att beslutet om nästa generations stridsflyg faller ut till Saabs fördel? ”Det är självklart väldigt viktigt för oss och vi kommer göra allt vi kan för att försöka visa att vi har förmåga. Det kommer vi att jobba på och det är en viktig frågeställning för oss, absolut.” DI 14 januari 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/marcus-wallenberg-europa-har-halkat-efter/ T...

  Viktor Munkhammar DI https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/03/hushallens-bolan-var-i-februari-4103.html Svenska banker har lånat ut 1.880 miljarder kronor till kommersiella fastighetsbolag Bankernas utlandslån 8.000 miljarder kronor Patricia Hedelius SvD 8 oktober 2018 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/03/svenska-banker-har-lanat-ut-1880.html Patricia Hedelius https://www.svd.se/av/patricia-hedelius Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 14 januari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/rolfs-lanktips-14-januari-2025.html

Part 1: Cold War Origins At more than $10 trillion outstanding, the eurodollar market is one of the biggest forms of shadow banking activity out there.  It's also one of the most interesting markets in existence, allowing non-US banks to hold and lend offshore dollars that effectively sit outside of the Federal Reserve's control.  Bloomberg 14 januari 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-14/the-hidden-history-of-eurodollars-part-1-cold-war-origins Pushing risk from banks into what’s often called shadow banks, hasn’t necessarily made the system as a whole safer, nor has it reduced the Fed’s role in lending support when times get tough. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/08/fed-drawn-into-shadows.html Shadow Banking Jamie Dimon https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/01/shadow-banking-jamie-dimon.html

  For many years private markets have raised more in equity than public markets,  where shrinkage as a result of share buybacks and takeover activity has not been made good by a dwindling volume of new issues.  The vibrancy of private markets means that companies can stay private indefinitely, with no worries about gaining access to capital. Much of the dynamic behind the shift to private markets is regulatory.  Tougher capital adequacy requirements on banks after the financial crisis drove lending into more lightly regulated non-bank financial institutions. John Plender Financial Times 4 January 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/b75bd032-7395-4ab1-812d-e1ed5ad58aac US set for IPO comeback as private equity firms seek to offload holdings Financial Times 5 January 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/5dcf3d4e-8e16-470b-b33d-fc73d3043f58 The private credit market $1.5 trillion https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-private-credit-market-15-trillion.html Tillbaka till R...

 Switzerland might have averted the collapse of Credit Suisse, its second largest bank, if the country’s financial regulator took a harder line overseeing it and enforcing capital rules, a parliamentary report found Friday.  One of the key recommendations: possibly more capital at the country’s remaining big bank, UBS. The conclusions came in a sweeping report meant to be Switzerland’s ultimate lessons-learned look at an event that threatened the core of the country’s identity as a well-run, financial safe haven. Wall Street Journal 20 December 2024 https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/what-switzerland-should-have-done-to-save-credit-suisse-5d96ef3c Credit Suisse gold https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/03/credit-suiss-gold.html

One of the hottest bits of high-octane financial engineering these days.  In SRTs, a bank offloads some or all of the risks of some of its loans to ease how much capital it has to set aside for regulatory purposes.  The loans remain on the bank’s balance sheet, but the buyer of an SRT typically promises to cover a chunk of the losses if the loans go bad.  The buyers are investors such as insurance companies, hedge funds and (increasingly) private credit funds, which take on the risk in exchange for a fee. Robin Wigglesworth Financial Times 20 December 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/d91d35fc-93ab-4963-8587-7a00fe5c63b4 The deal is known on Wall Street as a synthetic risk transfer https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-deal-is-known-on-wall-street-as.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 20 december 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-20-december-2024.html

Investors’ “relentless” appetite for juicy returns has triggered the biggest boom on Wall Street in complex financial products since the lead-up to the global financial crisis in 2007. The global volume of structured finance transactions has hit $380bn this year Still, analysts say the size of the market is small enough to avoid creating systemic risk. Financial Times 9 December 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/5219f962-3499-4928-8c73-5610b7a0109e On Thursday August 9 2007, financial markets suddenly seized up. Gillian Tett https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/03/on-thursday-august-9-2007-financial.html Watch Out: Wall Street Is Finding New Ways to Slice and Dice Loans https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-new-ways-to-slice-and-dice.html Japan’s 1989 property-and-equity bubble or the pre-2007 housing-and-structured-debt bubble. Britain’s 1846 Railway Mania James Mackintosh  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/09/britains-1846-railway-mania.html

Just after the onset of the 2007-08 global financial crisis, disclosures of financial mismanagement in Greece almost plunged the country into bankruptcy and resulted in a loss of confidence in bond markets. A number of countries experienced big increases in government borrowing costs, with yields on government debt in Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain rising from about 2% in 2009 to between 7% and 20% in 2011,  and Greek 2-year bond yields rising to 200% in 2012 In addition, the crisis threatened the survival of the euro, which was introduced in 1999. A French sovereign-debt crisis would be a problem for the eurozone, economist says Vivien Lou Chen MarketWatch 3 December 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-investors-watch-french-budget-mess-amid-memories-of-eurozone-debt-crisis-c1118671 Quantifying the Impact of ECB Policies during the Debt Crisis https://www.nber.org/digest/feb18/quantifying-impact-ecb-policies-during-debt-crisis We use open market operations to steer inte...