Englund

Index för kärninflationen, core PCE, steg 3,0 procent jämfört med samma månad året innan. DI 20 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/live/hogre-inflation-och-lagre-bnp-tillvaxt-an-vantat-i-usa/  Policymakers could leave their 2% target in place formally, but be all right with never quite getting there. And then some years down the line, they could adopt a higher target. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/inflationsmalet-overges-i-tysthet.html Most can’t afford to buy a home. Consumers are downright gloomy about their finances nowadays, for one key reason: Most can’t afford to buy a home. A study published in January in the journal Economics Letters links consumer malaise in large part to the high cost of housing — which the Consumer Price Index undercounts. Entitled “The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly,” The study was conducted by a group of researchers from Harvard University and the International Monetary Fund. They wr...

  The core consumer price index, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, increased 0.3% from December.  Compared with January of last year, the measure rose 2.5%. Twelve-month core CPI reading dips to 2.5% from 2.6%. Bloomberg February 13, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-13/us-core-cpi-picked-up-at-start-of-year-on-firmer-services-costs   Ökningstakten är fortsatt klart över målet men sannolikheten för räntesänkningar ökar något.  Räntorna sjönk, börserna steg och dollarn tappade. Viktor Munkhammar DI 13 februari 2026, 15:41 https://www.di.se/nyheter/sannolikheten-for-rantesankningar-okar/ Faster productivity growth allows households to save less because they anticipate higher future income, while prompting businesses to invest more because expected returns rise.  Both of these boost demand and push up real interest rates. What we do have today is extraordinarily high expectations of productivity growth, already reflected ...

När aktier och huspriser stiger är räntan för låg.  Centralbankerna bör avskaffa målet om två procents inflation och i stället stabilisera tillgångspriserna. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/cpi2p https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/Star Is the Fed’s Inflation Target Still 2%? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/s-feds-inflation-target-still-2.html Bessent Sees Room for Future Revamp of Fed 2% Inflation Target “Once we are back to 2 — which I think will be in sight — then we can have a discussion: Is it much smarter to have a range?” Bessent said in an interview on the All-In Podcast. “Once we re-anchor to the target, then we can talk about a range.” Fed policymakers in 2012 formally and publicly adopted the current 2% target, which is shared by many central banks around the world. Bessent said that the idea of “decimal-point certainty is just absurd.” But he said shifting the target at a time when inflation is running faster than that would risk givi...

  The Federal Reserve’s policymakers ought to ask why, with inflation stuck at 3%, investors have so confidently priced in at least two further interest-rate cuts starting today. Core PCE inflation (the central bank’s preferred measure) fell to 3.1% at the end of 2023.  Two years later, it’s still roughly 3%.  Fed says the long-term real interest rate is 1%.  With inflation at 3%, that suggests a neutral policy rate of 4%, which is about where it stands.  Powell and his colleagues constantly affirm their commitment to the 2% goal. And it says a lot for their standing that they are still mostly believed, in financial markets at least. If, despite everything, cuts were already a done deal, one can’t help but wonder what became of 2% inflation. Clive Crook  Boomberg October 29, 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-29/is-the-fed-s-inflation-target-still-2 How Interest Rates Have Changed  https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-interest-rate...

Policymakers could leave their 2% target in place formally, but be all right with never quite getting there. And then some years down the line, they could adopt a higher target. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/some-economists-think-4-would-give-fed.html https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-10-27/the-fed-is-set-to-cut-rates-but-how-confidently Redan kring årsskiftet ska den ännu obekvämt heta prisökningstakten vara tillbaka nere vid målet 2 procent, enligt prognosen från chefen Erik Thedéen med kolleger. För styrräntan är det bara en bekräftelse på att Riksbankens septembersänkning till 1,75 procent var den högst sannolikt sista, och att räntan blir kvar där åtminstone in i 2027.    Nils Åkesson DI 8 oktober 2025 https://www.di.se/analys/goda-inflationsnyheter-fa-rantenyheter/ Först var alla för fast växelkurs. Sedan var alla för inflationsmål 2 procent och överskottsmål. Nu är ingen för överskottsmål. Men dom är lika glada ändå. Enighet ger styrka. ...

  If the consensus of the economists interviewed by Bloomberg has it right, t hen the December number will mean yet more frustration, with core CPI (excluding food and fuel) remaining unchanged at 3.3%,  t oo high to permit more rate cuts John Authers Bloomberg 14 January 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-14/inflation-could-derail-trump-2-0-before-it-starts Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 14 januari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/rolfs-lanktips-14-januari-2025.html

  Olivier Blanchard, då chefsekonom för Internationella valutafonden, föreslog 2010 att ett mål på 4 % skulle göra susen. Laurence Ball från Johns Hopkins Politiker kan formellt lämna sitt 2-procentsmål på plats, men vara okej med att aldrig nå dit riktigt. Och sedan några år framåt, kunde de anta ett högre mål. Olivier Blanchard, then the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, in 2010 suggested a 4% target would do the trick.  Laurence Ball of Johns Hopkins Policymakers could leave their 2% target in place formally, but be all right with never quite getting there.  And then some years down the line, they could adopt a higher target. Justin Lahart Wall Street Journal 9 June 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/some-economists-think-4-would-give-fed.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 13 November 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-13-november-2024.html