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  Sveriges bytesbalansöverskott större än Kinas https://www.ekonomifakta.se/sakomraden/makroekonomi/handel/bytesbalans-internationellt_1212708.html How to end the war in Iran If they are not to return to a futile war, America and Iran will have to ensure the ceasefire produces a lasting peace, by opening the strait and settling their dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme.  The first stage is reopening the strait, which should be possible for Iran and America to agree on—after all, each side knows it could force closure again. The second stage will be about Iran’s nuclear programme. The outlines of a deal are simple here, too: Iran must close off its path to a nuclear weapon in return for more sanctions relief.  Unfortunately, everything about the details will be tricky. The Economist 15 April 2026 https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/04/15/how-to-end-the-war-in-iran Europe has "maybe six weeks of jet fuel left", the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warn...

Olof Ehrenkrona ställer frågan: Vem minns världen av igår som den såg ut den 27 februari 2026?  Då fartygen seglade fritt i Persiska viken och försörjde världen med olja och gas. Så sent som den 26 februari hade Irans förhandlare signalerat sin vilja att kompromissa om ett nytt avtal i stället för det som Trump hade kastat i papperskorgen tio år tidigare.  Mycket talar för att USA inte ville ha ett avtal utan bara en kapitulation. Kombinationen av den israeliske premiärministern Netanyahus omdömeslösa risktagande och Trumps sedimenterade oförmåga att utöva sitt ämbete som USA:s president  I Iran gällde alltjämt den högste ledarens fatwa som förbjöd användningen av kärnvapen.   Den inre spärren som fanns i Iran för att utveckla kärnvapen och hota Israel med utplåning är borta i och med elimineringen av Khamenei. Olof Ehrenkrona SvD 2026-04-14 https://www.svd.se/a/gkdJ4L/en-utveckling-driven-av-de-omdomeslosa RE: Man tror inte sina ögon. Ehrenkrona litade  på...

Iran holds the trump card   The last pre-war shipments are arriving in Europe, if they have not already been sucked away by desperate Asian buyers willing to pay higher prices. All Tehran must do is survive for another few months and wait for the oil crunch to really bite. It would take at least 200,000 US ground troops and months of fighting to secure the long Iranian coastline and knock out the remaining missile launchers and drone units hidden in the mountains. US navy is now expected to board and seize Chinese-flagged ships, constituting a direct attack on China’s energy supply chain. This is arguably an act of war – “the law of the jungle”, as Xi Jinping put it on Tuesday morning.  “We will never allow any foreign force to bully, oppress or subjugate us. Anyone who would attempt to do so will find themselves on collision force with a great wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people,” he said. The world market for physical oil is already under extreme str...

Twenty years ago the global economy was shaken by a first “China shock” as a wave of low-cost goods destroyed the business models of manufacturers in advanced economies, displacing millions of workers and feeding discontent that fuelled populist politicians including US President Donald Trump.  Now a second shock is under way — one that is even more threatening to China’s trading partners: an assault on high-end manufacturing. Financial Times 14 April 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/7d51a630-a3de-4cc7-9f5f-0f3e7f0d305a?syn-25a6b1a6=1 What’s really shocking about the second China shock? Perhaps a shock is scarier if it’s concentrated in a few products, destroying, say, a car industry. On this dimension the second China shock looks slightly more intense than the first. The clearer difference is in the nature of the products China is sending. Feeling much more threatened by competition in higher-tech products like cars and chips. Another deviation from the first China shock playbook l...

The Magnificent Seven now account for nearly a third of the S&P 500. An S&P 500 index fund generates returns (less exceptionally low fees) that mirror the stock market as a whole, removing the need for people to become stock-pickers.   As of the end of last year, index funds and exchange traded index funds held a combined $30 trillion.  Stock picking has become extinct, almost.  Index funds have stopped being a proxy for the entire market. Why? Because seven companies are now so dominant that the market rises and falls largely based on their performance.  —“the Magnificent Seven,” Wall Street called them.  At the close of 2025, these stocks had returned a remarkable 875 percent in 10 years.  Indeed, over the last three years, they accounted for 55 percent of the market’s total returns, with the other 493 companies in the index making up the other 45 percent.   But as you’ve no doubt noticed, things have gone into reverse so far this y...

  Se nedan Stockholmsbörsen mot röd öppning Efter helgens misslyckade fredsförhandlingar går Stockholmsbörsen mot en öppning i rött territorium. Anders Rudolfsson, investeringsstrateg på Ålandsbanken, tror inte att helgens utveckling kommer att leda till någon kraftigare reaktion när handeln drar igång för veckan.  Enligt Anders Rudolfsson kan fokus på marknaden till viss del skifta bort från oljan under veckan när bolagen nu ska öppna böckerna för det första kvartalet. DI 13 april 2026, 08:14 https://www.di.se/nyheter/stockholmsborsen-mot-rod-oppning-inte-ovantat/ Nedgången på Stockholmsbörsen minskade under eftermiddagen  https://www.di.se/live/borsen-aterhamtade-sig-nibe-rusade/ Nedgången uteblev på Wall Street som stängde på grönt efter uppgifter om att Iran vill ha fred.   https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-rekylerade-upp-mjukvarubolag-draglok/ RE: Marknaden tror att Trump besegrar Iran. Om det blir så blir många ledsna. Just as the market is prone to overreact ...

The prospect that the Iran war will reintensify after the failure of peace talks threatens to spark fresh volatility across global markets, after a week that saw a fragile ceasefire drive stocks up and oil down by the most this year. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-12/wary-investors-eye-another-escalation-in-iran-war-markets-wrap Iran-US peace talks fail;  S&P 500 har tappat 0,9 procent från nivåerna innan kriget bröt ut https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/iran-us-peace-talks-fail-s-500-har.html After weeks of scouring headlines and watching tanker traffic, investors are eager to get back to the fundamentals of corporate earnings https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-markets-next-test-is-already-here-a08a80fd

Peter Magyar’s Tisza party was headed for a supermajority in parliament that will allow it to deliver on bold promises to dismantle Orban’s self-styled illiberal system.   The outcome also marks a defeat for the nationalist camp in Europe.  But it came as a big relief for the EU, which had struggled to overcome Orban’s obstructionism over the years. “Hungary has chosen Europe,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on X. A two-thirds majority will help a Magyar administration pass key legislation to unlock some of the more than $20 billion in EU funds that had been withheld from the Orban government on rule-of-law and corruption concerns  Boomberg 12 april 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-12/hungarians-sweep-away-orban-after-16-years-in-seismic-election Hungary Won’t Block €90 Billion EU Loan to Kyiv Magyar said at a news conference in Budapest on Monday that his country would maintain its opt-out from participating in the loan f...