Englund

  In the event of a liquidation, Vanke’s dollar bondholders are staring at a recovery rate in the teens, as the issuer is not the onshore parent but a wholly-owned subsidiary with limited assets. Offshore creditors holding $5.4 billion of unsecured bank loans and bonds will have to fight over $950 million worth of assets, giving them an average recovery rate of only 18%. Bloomberg December 4, 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-12-04/china-vanke-s-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-ugly   Den kinesiska fastighetsgiganten Evergrande Group har skulder på 305 miljarder dollar https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/09/den-kinesiska-fastighetsgiganten.html Evergrande Heads to Liquidation januari 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/01/evergrande-heads-to-liquidation.html  

For 80 years, what bound the United States to Europe was a shared commitment to defence and a common set of values: a commitment to defend democracy, human rights and the rule of law. That era was inaugurated in March 1947 in an 18-minute speech by President Harry Truman, in which he pledged US support to defend Europe against further expansion by the Soviet Union. Now, the new US National Security Strategy (NSS), published in December, signals that, for the White House, that shared endeavour has ended; that much of what the world has taken for granted about America's role is over. The review refers to the "so-called 'rules-based international order'", putting the latter phrase in inverted commas: a kind of delegitimisation by punctuation mark. "The other issue we face here is that when that so-called rules-based international order was established after the Second World War, 80 short years ago, China wasn't a major concern. "We just have a different...

  Is the Fed’s Inflation Target Still 2%? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/s-feds-inflation-target-still-2.html ”USA:s inflation är på rätt väg mot 2 procent, även om Trumps tullar förlänger slutsträckan mot Feds mål”, kommenterar SEB:s seniorekonom Robert Bergqvist på mikrobloggen X och tillägger att Fed lär sänka räntan med 0,25 procentenheter samtidigt som kungen höjer glaset till Nobel-skål i Stadshuset nästa vecka. ”Känns bra!”, skriver han. DI 5 december 2025 https://www.di.se/live/lagre-karninflation-an-vantat-i-usa-i-september/ The White House said Europe risks “civilizational erasure”  as a result of  decades of economic decline, political censorship and immigration The White House said Europe risks “civilizational erasure” https://www.ft.com/content/b969a57a-cf09-43c1-a7cf-6dec16ba59fd New York-börserna avslutade veckans sista handelsdag med små rörelser,  efter en ny uppdatering om inflationen som fick aktiemarknaden att rycka på axlarna. https://...

  Economists forecast headline PCE to rise 0.3% and core PCE to advance 0.2% for September, translating to annual inflation rates at 2.9% and 2.8%, respectively. Despite inflation concerns, the Federal Reserve is now widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point due to a sputtering job market. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-see-fridays-inflation-report-as-a-gut-check-of-vibes-on-the-economy-6e0b8cb 1 Is the Fed’s Inflation Target Still 2%? Policymakers could leave their 2% target in place formally, but be all right with never quite getting there. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/is-feds-inflation-target-still-2.html There’s a black hole where central banks’ theory of inflation should be.  Old assumptions about expectations and targets can no longer be relied upon. Will the Fed cut interest rates next week?   “yes” seems the likely answer, even though inflation exceeds the Fed’s 2 per cent target.  As Mervyn King, the former B...

After the 2008 financial crisis, regulators believed that corporate debt was starting to show similar risks that were apparent in subprime mortgages before they imploded.  Even though losses from sub-investment grade corporate loans were relatively low, regulators were concerned about banks’ underwriting standards since they often didn’t hold the loans on their balance sheets and would sell them to loan and bond funds, collecting massive fees in the process.  The so-called leveraged lending guidance was put in place in 2013 by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve as part of a crackdown on banks’ ability to make riskier loans.  That opened a window for big private investment funds that weren’t regulated, which stepped into the gap and started making the loans themselves.  The private credit industry has now become a giant on Wall Street and a competitor to the banks, all outside of regulators’...