Englund

  https://www.ekonomifakta.se/sakomraden/makroekonomi/inflation-och-styrrantor/styrrantan_1208883.html

A question is whether current holders of US debt would be willing or even able to bear the costs of selling it, given the logic of mutual assured destruction (MAD).  If de-dollarizing governments were to coordinate a mass sale of US Treasuries and other assets, the damage to their own central banks and private financial institutions’ balance sheets would be twofold.  A mass sale of dollar assets would drive down their price, forcing banks to take a hit; and their remaining dollar assets would also fall sharply in value. Moreover the euro to appreciate sharply, damaging eurozone member states’ substantial export sectors.  Erin Lockwood Project Syndicate Feb 9, 2026 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sell-america-future-of-dollar-hegemony-by-erin-lockwood-2026-02

Lagarde sade att hon har stor respekt för Villeroys ”personliga beslut” att lämna posten som Frankrikes centralbankschef efter 11 år av ”lojal och hängiven tjänst för både Frankrikes och Europas gemensamma bästa”. Villeroy tar nu över ordförandeskapet för Fondation des Apprentis d’Auteuil, där han kommer att använda sina talanger till förmån för utsatta ungdomar och familjer genom utbildningsprogram, sociala program och yrkesutbildningsprogram. https://www.di.se/live/frankrikes-centralbankschef-avgar-i-fortid/ France’s central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau is stepping down early to run a charitable foundation,  allowing French President Emmanuel Macron to fill the key role by this summer and before the presidential election of 2027. Financial Times February 9, 2026  https://www.ft.com/content/f7207116-a485-431e-9a8a-163e2d92cde5

All the levers of economic stimulus in America are pushed to the maximum, setting the conditions for torrid overheating and an unstable boom by the end of the year. Bank deregulation, credit expansion, a weaker dollar, lower interest rates, stealth quantitative easing (QE) and neo-socialist affordability gimmicks are combining to stretch the economic cycle and deliver roaring growth in time for the mid-term elections in November. Dario Perkins from TS Lombard compares it to Britain’s “Barber Boom” in 1972. Anthony Barber, the Tory chancellor, unshackled the banks and let rip with corporate tax cuts, insisting that it was safe because his supply-side measures would raise the non-inflationary speed limit of the UK economy to 5pc.  Many cheered him on at the time. It was the zeitgeist. Barber got his boom. It lasted around 18 months. I am old enough to remember the crushing stagflationary bust that followed. “Stagflation” remains a word not uttered in the polite company of the financi...

US payment processing companies account for about two-thirds of card transactions in Eurozone “We are highly dependent on international [payment] solutions,” said Martina Weimert, chief executive of the European Payments Initiative (EPI), a consortium of 16 European banks and financial services companies. Financial Times February 9, 2026  https://www.ft.com/content/fcc215bb-b7b8-4a62-87ed-03f603eb3d14 Trump done more to unite Europe than any European https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/trump-om-euroa-5-februari-2026.html Vad är det som har en flagga, en nationaldag, en nationalsång, en militärstyrka, ett parlament och en högsta domstol.  En stat, naturligtvis. Vad är det mer en stat har? Jo, en valuta. Det är därför europas ledande politiker har infört euron.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2018/08/germanys-foreign-minister-heiko-maas.html

In early 1930 the market recovered half of the value lost from 1929. Then things got bad. The Dow was down a third by the end of 1930. It fell by half in 1931.  By 1932 it was down 80% from the 1929 peak.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/crash-of-1929-it-was-fomo-plus-debt-its.html FDR’s attempts to revive the economy are viewed as a failure in light of the devastating second depression that occurred in 1937-38. Instead, the Great Depression finally ended with the explosive growth of military expenditures starting in mid-1940.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2018/10/fdrs-attempts-to-revive-economy-are.html

Now imagine what happens when equity analysts — already well known for their corporate obsequiousness /Obsequiousness means excessive, often insincere eagerness to please or obey someone in authority, usually in a way that feels fawning or servile/ and pack mentality — are all listening to the same quarterly earnings report, and using the same one or two AI models to transcribe, analyze and suggest advice based on that call.  If market participants are all drawing from the same models trained on largely the same historic data, it’s probable they’ll not only miss the black swan events that have never happened before, but reach similar conclusions and investment strategies. Parmy Olson Bloomberg February 9, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-09/anthropic-claude-financial-markets-should-brace-for-ai-groupthink   Parmy Olson is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering technology. A former reporter for the Wall Street Journal and Forbes, she is author of “S...

So much has changed, and there are so many uncertainties, from the financial (what’s going on with tech stocks?) to the cosmic (what will the new economic world order look like?). To make matters worse, there is no haven — not gold, not crypto, not even US Treasuries. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/us-bonds-have-never-been-risk-free.html There is a way to manage this environment: Embrace Finance 101.  Recall the basics you learned in financial literacy class in high school, or in that one finance course you took in college, or while getting your MBA, or just from reading the classics on investing. Everything you need to know to manage this market environment is contained in a few nuggets of wisdom. Markets are efficient after all. This does not mean that prices are always “correct,” just that they generally reflect the available information.  Diversify. The so-called Magnificent 7’s growth has been so spectacular they dominate the S&P, and their performance seem...

I december 2024 fick amerikanen Richard Z Wimmel ett brev från sitt försäkringsbolag. Budskapet: hans hus, i en branddrabbad del av Kalifornien, går inte att försäkra längre. Riskerna är för stora. Och han är inte ensam. I New York Times, som skildrat Richard Z Wimmels öde, rapporterades i december förra året att 1,9 miljoner amerikaner fått sina försäkringar uppsagda. När förra vinterns omfattande bränder slog till i Kalifornien stod tusentals drabbade oförsäkrade. Nu varnar Finansinspektionen för att Sverige står för liknande risker, om än i betydligt mindre omfattning. Särskilt bostäder i områden med stor risk för översvämning ligger i farozonen. Bilden är från översvämningar i Gävle 2021, en av de kostsammaste händelserna  för försäkringsbolagen någonsin. Foto: Fredrik Sandberg/TT DN 9 februari 2026 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/maste-hoja-premierna-sa-slar-klimatkrisen-mot-din-forsakring/ Florida’s housing market in an era of increasingly destructive climate disasters https://engl...

Men bakom de svaga siffrorna spirar en optimism i mäklarkåren om att 2026 kommer att innebära fortsatt återhämtning och stigande priser. Antalet bostadsaffärer sjönk i januari jämfört med i fjol.   Foto: Linus Sundahl-Djerf DN 6 februari 2026 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/kylslagen-start-pa-bostadsmarknaden-2026/ https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/krugman-why-fed-did-what-it-did-and-why.html

”Landet ska vara rikt, men det ska också komma alla till del. Det är ju också väldigt, väldigt viktigt för oss”, säger Ulf Kristersson. ”Nu vill vi växla upp”, säger Elisabeth Svantesson. https://www.di.se/nyheter/moderatloftet-nu-ska-vi-bli-rikast-i-eu/ Det måste vara besynnerligt för Ulf Kristersson. Antag att du är en svensk statsminister. Att du helst vill åka ut på bussturné i mellanstora mellansvenska städer och prata om alla fantastiska reformer som du har genomfört under snart fyra år. Alla dessa, mer eller mindre vilda förslag, som Manfred Weber och andra politiker framför nu, handlar om att stärka Europa. I praktiken om att centralisera mer. Att ge mer makt till Bryssel. Torbjörn Nilsson SvD 4 februari 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/manfred-weber-en-gemensam-styrka-under.html

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and Its Aftermath Great Moderation. However, calm never lasts. In 2008 the United States and the world economy as a whole were wracked by the global financial crisis.  The Fed’s response to that crisis was deeply controversial, with harsh criticism coming especially from the political right. The turning of the political wheel has now put the people who were proved wrong about monetary policy in charge of Trump administration policy.  When that bubble deflated, starting in 2005, the economic consequences were severe. Real estate is a very big sector: The plunge in housing prices when the bubble burst wiped out wealth equal to 40 percent of GDP, the equivalent of $12 trillion today.  The plunge in home construction slashed total spending by more than 4 percent, the equivalent of a trillion-dollar plus hit today. The housing bubble was financed in large part by loans from “shadow banks”.  RE: Shadow Banks https://englundmacro.blo...

Våra egna inrikespolitiska prioriteringar behöver ses i relation till hur vi kan påverka och stärka EU.  Det gäller inte minst euron, där den politiska kostnaden för ett fortsatt utanförskap är uppenbar och växande. Fredrik Johansson SvD 7 februari 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/3p6W6e/sverige-bar-ansvar-for-europa Uppenbar? Fredrik Johansson  Krönikör på ledarsidan. Kommunikationsrådgivare och senior fellow på tankesmedjan Frivärld.    https://www.svd.se/av/fredrik-johansson Krönikör på ledarsidan. Kommunikationsrådgivare och senior fellow på tankesmedjan Frivärld.   https://www.svd.se/av/fredrik-johansson Så har vi tjugo år efter folkomröstningen fått en ny debatt om euron. Kronans försvagning är ett allt mer akut problem för svensk ekonomi och svenskt näringsliv.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/03/kriserna-har-svetsat-oss-samman-gunnar.html Gunnar Hökmark Sverige bör ta ett första steg och likt Danmark låsa kronan till euron https://englundmacro....

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1,200 points Friday, leading a broader stock-market rebound MarketWatch Feb. 6, 2026  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-closes-above-50-000-for-first-time-after-rough-week-for-u-s-stock-market-c47282f7 Nasdaq Market Cap https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/nagonting-har-hant.html

  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/wall-street-fredag-6-februari-2026.html

Men tillhör den tidigare generaldirektören en utrotningshotad art? Han var ytterst ansvarig för Folkhälsomyndighetens linje, och var den som övertygade regeringen att i stora delar följa den. Men han höll sig alltid i bakgrunden.  Nu är Johan Carlson, den tidigare generaldirektören för Folkhälsomyndigheten, snart aktuell med boken ”Vi mot världen”, om arbetet där bakom kulisserna under pandemin. Söndagsintervjun 6 februari 2026 https://www.sverigesradio.se/avsnitt/johan-carlson-den-sista-ambetsmannen Johan Carlson ”Vi mot världen” https://www.bokus.com/bok/9789179654726/vi-mot-varlden-min-berattelse-om-pandemin-och-den-svenska-modellen/ Relaterat Anders Tegnell – symbolen för Sveriges Coronakamp https://www.sverigesradio.se/avsnitt/1499408

FAM kommer att integreras med Wallenberg Investments – bolaget som utvecklar Wallenbergstiftelsernas tillgångar. ”När tillgångarna växer och portföljen blir mer komplex är det ett naturligt nästa steg att konsolidera Wallenberg Investments och FAM i en gemensam plattform.  Det stärker vår beslutsförmåga, vår risk- och kapitalallokering och vår möjlighet att attrahera och utveckla den kompetens som krävs för att bygga värde över generationer”, uppger Marcus Wallenberg, ordförande för Wallenberg Investments. DI 6 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/live/wallenberg-gor-strukturandring-i-sfaren-fam-slukas/ https://fam.se/sv/om-oss Wallenbergägda FAM köper loss sfärens huvudkontor på Arsenalsgatan och representationsfastigheten Villa Täcka udden  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/fam-via-agarbolaget-wallenberg.html The Wallenberg family are conspicuously absent from international and even Swedish rich lists. That’s because their vast assets are held in foundations, started out ...

Anthropic has roughly 2,000 employees, says it launched more than 30 products and features in January alone.  Anthropic’s ruthless efficiency comes in part from a paradoxical source: a mission-obsessed culture. It was founded by former staff at OpenAI who believed that company was too blasé about safety, specifically toward the existential risk that AI posed for humankind. The issue morphed into a kind of ideology at Anthropic, with Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei its high priest and visionary. Parmy Olson Boomberg 5 February 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-05/anthropic-ai-safety-obsession-is-its-secret-weapon?srnd=phx-opinion Parmy Olson is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering technology. A former reporter for the Wall Street Journal and Forbes, she is author of “Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT and the Race That Will Change the World.” The book was awarded the Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year Award in 2024 Critique: Some reviewers have ...

 It is hard to be a safe haven when trouble starts at home The Economist 5 February 2026 https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/02/05/why-the-dollar-may-have-much-further-to-fall

Once a distant second or third in the AI race, the company is moving to the front with a focus on caution, coding and business clients The viral moment for Anthropic’s models “is the most important thing that’s happened in AI since ChatGPT’s launch,” said Dean Ball, a senior fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation who writes an artificial-intelligence newsletter. “It’s infinitely interesting.” WSJ Feb. 5, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-week-anthropic-tanked-the-market-and-pulled-ahead-of-its-rivals-ef59dff1   Claude Is Taking the AI World by Storm, and Even Non-Nerds Are Blown Away. Developers and hobbyists are comparing the viral moment for Anthropic’s Claude Code to the launch of generative AI WSJ Jan. 17, 2026  https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-claude-code-ai-7a46460e?mod=article_inline

I riket faller såväl bostadsrätter som villor i pris, med 0,3 respektive 0,2 procent, vilket innebär att marknaden bara är upp 0,6 procent det senaste året. Ljusglimtarna står centrala Stockholm och Göteborg för där priserna fortsätter att stiga om än långsamt ”Men hushållens ekonomi är på väg åt rätt håll och vi räknar med att allt fler gör verklighet av sina flyttplaner framöver även om omvärldsläget fortsätter att vara osäkert”, säger Marcus Svanberg. DI 6 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/fa-tecken-pa-att-bostadsmarknaden-tar-fart/

Rekordstängning på Wall Street – rejält lyft för Nvidia Mot strömmen gick Amazon som föll kraftigt efter sin delårsrapport. https://www.di.se/live/rekordstangning-pa-wall-street-rejalt-lyft-for-nvidia/ Dip buyers unite. What a week. If you’re trying to make sense of why the headlong rush into popular trades gave way to a sudden retreat from risk across Wall Street, it’s probably as simple as a slow drumbeat of news sowing anxiety about valuations. But dip buyers are hovering Bloomberg February 6, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-06/dip-buyers-brave-wall-street-s-retreat-from-risk A renewed wave of dip buying spurred a rally in tech stocks in the wake of a rout fueled by worries over the billions of dollars those firms are throwing at artificial-intelligence development.  Bitcoin jumped after 50% plunge from from its October peak. Silver and gold also bounced. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/asian-stocks-to-fall-as-us-tech-crypto-exten...

OMXS30 på ny rekordnivå Mot strömmen gick rapporterande Skanska https://www.di.se/live/gron-stangning-i-stockholm-omxs30-pa-ny-rekordniva/   Caspar Callerström, som varit partner i EQT sedan 2004 och under en period även varit riskkapitalbolagets vice vd, har under januari sålt 4 miljoner aktier i bolaget till ett värde av drygt 1,1 miljarder kronor. Hans återstående aktier har i dagsläget ett värde av cirka 5,1 miljarder kronor. DI 6 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/live/caspar-callerstrom-har-salt-eqt-aktier-for-miljardbelopp/ EQT-miljardärer köper kåk på Stureplan I dagarna har fastigheten bytt ägare från Gamla Livförsäkringsaktiebolaget SEB Trygg Liv (”Gamla Liv”), som har ägt fastigheten sedan 1997, till Harmerica, som ägs av EQT-storägarna Caspar Callerström och Harry Klagsbrun. ”Vi kontaktade ägaren och indikerade vårt starka intresse, bland annat på grund av att vi äger en fastighet väldigt nära, på Lästmakargatan 3”, uppger Caspar Callerström   https://englundmacr...

Anthropic is releasing a new version of its AI model, Claude Opus 4.6, designed to carry out financial research and other work-related functions. Anthropic plans to focus on improving its AI models to carry out work related to areas like cybersecurity, life sciences, health care and financial services,  according to Scott White, the company's head of product for Claude AI models. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/anthropic-updates-ai-model-to-field-more-complex-financial-research

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/novo-slump-is-no-buy-the-dip-moment-for-top-danish-investor Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/buy-dip.html

 The token fell as much as 10% Thursday to $65,344, the lowest since October 2024.  The rout has erased nearly half of Bitcoin’s value since it reached a record four months ago  and has spread to other tokens, related ETFs and companies like Strategy Inc. that hold vast sums of coins . Bloomberg February 5, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/bitcoin-drops-below-70-000-as-forced-deleveraging-accelerates Today’s price action shouldn’t change your view about Bitcoin’s usefulness or lack thereof.  If, like me, you consider the whole thing a delusion — BTC isn’t a medium of exchange, nor is it a reliable store of value — then you already knew that and the fact that we seem to be having a Wile E. Coyote moment isn’t information about the fundamentals. (There are no fundamentals.)  Paul Krugman 70.000 dollar, drygt 5.000 dollar under dagens kurs, ses generellt som en viktig stödnivå för bitcoin, som kan bli avgörande för den fortsatta utveckl...

https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/trumps-attack-pa-europa-lojligt/ Donald Trump has probably done more to unite Europe than any European ever did. It’s an old tenet of political thought that to build a collective identity you need an enemy. An adversary can force your people to cohere. Hitler played that role for Britain, and the USSR for the US.  A technocratic economic union without enemies inspired little emotion. Nobody would die for the blue and gold flag, and only a few Ryder Cup ultras ever waved it at a sporting event.  In TV series and films, the hero fighting geopolitical baddies was almost always an American, not a European. Simon Kuper Financial Times 5 February 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/dc9e4a69-ff4b-4e4f-8999-e578f7ff5a0f Europe project requires a distinctly European form of nationalism Without a collective “we,” taxation feels like extortion, laws are perceived as an imposition by outsiders, and military service becomes difficult to justify.  Why co...

  Det är en tudelad AI-skräck som råder på marknaderna.  Den ena är att AI-bolagen har överinvesterat och att det kommer bli svårt att räkna hem alla miljarder som läggs på att bygga infrastruktur i vinster.   Det andra är oro för hur klassiska bolags intäkter ska påverkas av AI-konkurrenter.  https://www.di.se/live/breda-fall-pa-wall-street-finansbolag-ned-pa-ai-skrack/ Bitcoin Drops Below $70,000 The token fell as much as 10% Thursday to $65,344, the lowest since October 2024.  The rout has erased nearly half of Bitcoin’s value since it reached a record four months ago  Bloomberg February 5, 2026  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/bitcoin-drops-below-70000.html New York Stockholm Stockholm i dag torsdag 5 februari Trillion-Dollar Tech Wipeout The rout rippling through stock and credit markets was triggered by concern that AI is on the verge of supplanting the business models of a wide swathe of companies. Hundreds of billions of dollars ...