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Moderaterna har uppbackning i eurofrågan från Liberalerna – ett parti som för tillfället dock ser ut att implodera och som mycket väl kan åka ur riksdagen efter valet.  Hos väljarna saknas däremot ett brett stöd för euron. Senare undersökningar visar att omkring 32 procent är positiva till ett införande.  Redan i dag tenderar blocken att representera partietablissemangen i storstäderna, som i många frågor tycks ha mer gemensamt med varandra än med väljarna. Epoch Times 3 februari 2026 https://www.epochtimes.se/en-blockpolitik-utan-valjare

Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh spent over a decade working for Stanley Druckenmiller, who also mentored Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary. Wall Street Journal Feb. 2, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/what-kevin-warsh-learned-working-for-stanley-druckenmiller-7fc07efe Stanley Druckenmiller, the former hedge fund manager, issued a warning at the annual Ira Sohn conference on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve’s low-rate policy is creating vast long-run risks for the US economy. He said Fed policymakers are “raising the odds of the economic tail risk they are trying to avoid”, such as  spurring credit bubbles, by keeping interest rates near historic lows. Alarm bells ring over negative interest rates https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2016/05/alarm-bells-ring-over-negative-interest.html

I åsiktskorridorens hemland Sverige finns det inte mycket utrymme att avvika från normen.  Statsvetaren Katarina Barrling har sammanställt antologin Avvikare i Sverige, om människorna som trots allt väljer att sticka ut i det extrema landet lagom. https://shows.acast.com/axess-boksamtal/episodes/katarina-barrling-intervjuas-av-lotta-groning Horace Engdahl om ”åsiktskorridoren” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/horace-engdahl-om-asiktskorridoren.html Bortom åsikts- och känslokorridor Katarina Barrling och Paulina Neuding https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/07/sverige-var-ett-varldens-socialt-mest.html

 When the Fed has embarked on taking down its securities holdings, it has repeatedly caused disruptions to money markets.  In 2013, even a signal it would stop boosting its purchases sparked global volatility, in an episode known as  the taper tantrum.  Yellen is seeking to avoid the May 2013 episode of her predecessor Ben S. Bernanke, when his suggestion that the Fed might soon wind down its bond-buying program prompted investors to flee the risk in emerging markets.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-19/world-braces-for-taper-tantrum-ii-even-as-yellen-soothes-nerves Chris Anstey Bloomberg February 2, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-02/could-warsh-at-the-fed-and-bessent-at-treasury-remodel-the-central-bank-s-role  Kevin Warsh https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/pa-fredagen-nominerades-kevin-warsh-som.html

When interest rates are near zero, government debt doesn’t matter. That was the theory at least, in the previous decade, not just from economists on the fringe but also from a few in the mainstream. If rates stayed low, the argument went, the US didn’t need to worry about debt. And it didn’t. Debt increased, and economists who cautioned against it (ahem) were dismissed as cranks, with many of our critics pointing to the history of one nation: Japan, which managed to keep interest rates low even as its debt grew to more than 200% of its GDP. Reality, however, has a way of catching up with theory eventually, and now it has for Japan.   If it increased rates to fight inflation, then debt costs would balloon. If it kept rates low and let inflation run high, the yen would depreciate. In the end, it chose the second option. The timing couldn’t be worse, with Japan mulling more fiscal expansion to revamp its economy, and it’s now risking a full-on debt crisis. The lesson here is that...

Giorgia Meloni and Friedrich Merz looked more like an odd couple than a power couple when they met in the Roman sunshine to sign a partnership pact. Don't read my lips Balding and bespectacled, the 6ft 6in Mr Merz, 70, towered over his 5ft 2in blonde host, who is 49. “Italy and Germany are closer than ever before,” he said. Ms Meloni, the “post-fascist” single mother from a working-class Rome neighbourhood is an unlikely partner for the former BlackRock executive and grandfather of six, who has two private jets. “But he is not going to explain to his fellow citizens that it’s a great idea to share debt with the French, who have been unable to balance their books for 50 years.  Meloni, on the other hand, has done the job on the budget. She has cleaned up her accounts.” Telegraph 2 February 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/02/meloni-cuts-macron-out-engine-europe/

  Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/buy-dip.html Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/pa-fredagen-nominerades-kevin-warsh-som.html Muntert i USA. Wall Street stänger tydligt upp. Nasdaq yfte 0,6 procent, S&P 500 0,5 procent och  Dow Jones 1,1 procent. Disney rasade 7,3 procent. Nvidia backade 2,9   https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-stanger-tydligt-upp-tungt-tapp-for-disney/ https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-02-02-2026/card/bitcoin-price-drops-under-77-000-sIPnmVA6FY30XS3LbZd4 U.S. stock futures fall after bitcoin’s weekend drop, as gold and silver’s sell-off may be bleeding into other markets.  “Given the build up of positioning and leverage involved, [Friday’s gold and silver] sell-off is bleeding into other markets,”  “Effectively, a deleveraging is happening, forcing traders to sell other assets to cover losses on their losing precious metals positions. That’s contributing to t...

The term, borrowed from video games, refers to the point at which a player can no longer absorb damage without being knocked out. The invisible line beyond which many Americans tumble out of the middle class. As one commentator widely credited with popularizing the phrase put it: many Americans appear comfortable on the surface — living in large homes and driving pickup trucks — but are in reality just one bad shock away from bankruptcy, or worse. When an American gets seriously ill or loses a job, “crushing medical bills or a sudden loss of income can push them past a critical threshold instantly — and they fall straight to the bottom, with no way back.” The narrative is indeed grounded in mainstream economic discussion. The idea echoes years of discussion around a so-called K-shaped economy What is a K-shaped economy? A K-shaped economy is one where two groups experience increasingly different circumstances. While higher-income consumers, who are benefiting from stock-market and home...

Ursula von der Leyen drömmer om en ny europeisk folkbil – en billig, ekologisk e-bil för massorna. Kan folkbilen rädda den krisande ropeiska bilindustrin från att ödeläggas av Kina? Inte enligt kritikerna, som liknat den nya folkbilen vid en el-Trabant. Men bakom von der Leyens förslag ligger en desperat insikt om att Europa håller på att förlora kapplöpningen om den nya tekniken.  Den europeiska bilmarknaden översvämmas redan av billiga kinesiska elbilar som gynnas av Pekings massiva statsstöd.  Snart lanseras dessutom BYD:s nya lågprismodell Seagull i Europa, som förmodligen blir den billigaste elbilen som hittills sålts i Sverige. DN 31  januari 2026 https://www.dn.se/varlden/kan-el-trabanten-radda-den-europeiska-bilindustrin/ BYD Seagull  BYD Is Winning the Global Race to Make Cheaper EVs The Chinese company is flooding markets with its cars—while the US is doing everything it can to keep the booming brand out. In October, the EU slapped a 17% tariff on BYD’s EV ...

The original Plaza Accord, named for the New York hotel where it was signed, was a 1985 commitment by the US and four allies aimed at driving down a super-strong dollar.  OBS den hemska början på 90-talet och 90-talskrisen som det heter i Sverige (Coincidentally, one trade-weighted and inflation-adjusted gauge of the greenback reached its highest point since 1985 at the start of last year.) Bloomberg January 31, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-31/why-there-won-t-be-a-grand-mar-a-lago-accord-new-economy Kronans oväntat kraftiga lyft ställer till det för både Riksbanken och svensk export. Men kom också ihåg alla år i gratis medvind av stadigt sjunkande kronkurs. Nils Åkesson DI  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/kronans-ovantat-kraftiga-lyft-staller.html Bild från Home Alone 2 A Weaker Dollar Has Always Been Part of Trump’s Plan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/a-weaker-dollar-has-always-been-part-of.html  

S&P 500 stängde på minus 0,4 procent och noterade därmed den tredje dagen i följd på minus.  Dagens i särklass mest dramatiska rörelse stod guld- och silverpriset för och gruvjättar drogs med ned i raset. https://www.di.se/live/gruvras-pa-wall-street-i-sparen-av-historiskt-silverfall/ Donald Trumps nominering av Kevin Warsh  får dollarn att stärkas. https://www.di.se/live/dollarn-gar-mot-basta-dagen-sedan-i-juli/ The selloff accelerated after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, reintroducing uncertainty around the Fed's path and unsettling markets that had been trading a clearly dovish outcome. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-30/crowded-wall-street-trades-show-cracks-in-latest-2026-warning Warsh will need to convince fellow policymakers and investors that his plan to cut rates, driven by a predicted productivity boom from artificial intelligence, will keep inflation low. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...

 I Test Drove Chinese EV Xiaomi SU7 Max  Now I Don’t Want to Buy American Cars Anymore. Amazing battery range, customizable interiors and sleek software  Smartphones, tablets, washing machines, toasters, dust-mite vacuums. If it uses electricity, Xiaomi probably makes it and sells it in China.  So as cars increasingly became computers on wheels, Xiaomi started making EVs. WSJ 29 January 2026 https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/chinese-ev-test-drive-xiaomi-su7-c3e59282 Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomi succeeded where Apple failed by launching its own electric car. Now, the tech company is betting big on EVs and setting its sights on Tesla. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/xiaomi-beat-apple-now-its-taking-on.html

 from international and even Swedish rich lists. That’s because their vast assets are held in foundations, started out by Knut and Alice Wallenberg, in 1917. Investor AB has beaten the Swedish stock market for 15 consecutive years with average annual returns of 19%, compared with 11% for Sweden’s SIX Return Index.  Bloomberg 30 January 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-01-30/sweden-s-powerful-wallenberg-family-is-readying-for-handover Förslaget att välja in Martina Wallenberg till styrelsen för SEB är en märkeshändelse. https://www.svd.se/a/JOEq6P/familjebankens-skifte-blir-historiskt

The euro briefly traded above $1.20 on Wednesday, the highest since 2021. That level has usually caused anguish for the bloc’s export-led economy. In a surprisingly frank admission in July, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said it would be “complicated” if the euro exceeded $1.20. The fiscal cavalry is sadly still quite far away.  It’s frustrating for ECB policymakers and EU politicians that they’ve got inflation under control, but they cannot get growth going.  Adding to the sense of cosmic injustice, the US dollar is weakening despite its much stronger economy.  You can be sure Donald Trump will claim it’s the result of his own genius. Japan took action last Friday that caused the yen to rise in value by about 3%.  Bessent said Wednesday that the US is “absolutely not” intervening to sell the dollar against the yen. Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg January 29, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-01-29/the-us-dollar-is-kicking-europe-while-it-s-down ...

Stockholmsbörsen såg ut att gå mot en stängning på plus. Men Microsofts rapport, som blandade rekordhöga investeringar men en avmattad tillväxt för molnintäkterna, spädde på oron för att de enorma investeringar som görs i AI inte kommer generera tillräckligt stora intäkter tillräckligt snabbt.  Det ledde till tunga fall för flera teknikjättar, vilket sänkte indexen på Wall Street som drog med sig Stockholmsbörsen i fallet. https://www.di.se/live/ai-frossa-sankte-stockholmsborsen-abb-rusade/ 17.38

Perils of a Falling Trump Dollar President Trump this week said he thinks a weaker dollar is “great,” but he should be careful what he wishes for.  Many politicians over the years have contemplated a weaker greenback as an economic miracle cure. They often discover that a weak dollar is a liability. How retro. For decades, devaluationists held that a weaker currency boosts exports and employment while a strong currency can throttle an economy.  Credit Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for understanding this and engaging in moral suasion with foreign-exchange traders last week to help Tokyo stabilize the yen.  Credit to him as well for saying Wednesday that the U.S. has always had a “strong dollar policy,” WSJ editorial Jan. 28, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-weak-dollar-economy-exchange-rates-101b278a Sell America Fem faktorer bidrar till att investerare minskar sin USA-exponering JP Morgan Chase har i en analys  https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/apac/en...

In the first 11 months of 2025, the total U.S. trade deficit was $840billion, up from $807 billion between January and November of 2024. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-01-29-2026/card/u-s-trade-deficit-rebounds-after-hitting-lowest-since-2009-JV91w5tHoy1RVWqvGD7N https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/det-ar-dollarn-bakom-allt-monetary.html

The Oval Office was silent, but the map on the desk screamed war. It was June 1948. President Harry Truman looked at the Generals surrounding him. The news was catastrophic. Joseph Stalin had just slammed the iron gate shut. The Soviet Union had blockaded West Berlin. Two and a half million men, women, and children were trapped inside the city, deep within Soviet territory. No trains. No trucks. No food. No coal. The Generals looked at the map. The math was simple, and it was brutal. "We have two choices, Mr. President," an advisor whispered. "We retreat and hand Europe to the Communists." "Or we send in the tanks and start World War III." Truman turned to the youngest man in the room. He was forty-nine years old. He was wearing the uniform of the newly formed United States Air Force. He looked at the President. "There is a third option, sir," Vandenberg said. "We don't retreat. And we don't drive." "We fly." The Army ...

The dollar index is currently at a critical support level of 96; a break below this could lead to further declines. After sliding to its lowest level since 2022, the greenback lately has been clinging to a critical support level dating back to 2008. A breach below it could trigger a sharp decline and potentially open the door to further downside for the dollar, according to LPL Financial.  If that level holds, however, it could signal better days ahead for the buck. Isabel Wang MarketWatch Jan. 29, 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-battered-dollar-could-fall-even-further-if-it-breaks-below-this-key-level-ec6cada6 RE: Jag har länge haft mina aningar, men nu med Ai kan man hitta svar. Research examining 158,391 strategy configurations across 22 financial instruments over 14 years found that support levels predict bounces at a rate of just 28.4%, well below the 50% threshold that would indicate actual predictive value. https://www.perplexity.ai/search/does-support-levels-supp...

 Utdelningsförslagen signalerar att bankerna mår bra och känner tillförsikt inför framtiden. Utdelningarna är viktiga också av andra skäl. Viktiga forskningsfinansiärer, som exempelvis Knut och Alice Wallenbergs stiftelse, är beroende av utdelningar från sina aktieinnehav för att kunna finansiera banbrytande forskning inom bland annat AI och kvantteknik. DI ledare Henrik Westman DI 29 januari 2026 https://www.di.se/ledare/s-och-m-bor-valkomna-bankernas-guldregn/ Frågar du Liberalernas partiledare Johan Pehrson är svaret självklart: euron ska ersätta kronan. Länge var han ensam om att driva denna fråga i regeringen, men möjligen är en omsvängning på väg.  Ett valutabyte är för viktigt för att bara drivas av ett av riksdagens minsta partier. Moderaterna bör sätta ned foten. Gör som Pehrson argumenterar för på debattplats i Svenska Dagbladet på torsdagen: tillsätt en utredning. Sverige är inte samma land som 2003.  Ledare:Henrik Westman DI 14 september 2023 https://englundma...

Januari avslöjar sanningen. Om du äger en bostad värd tio miljoner men darrar på rösten när barnen behöver nya vinterskor den 21 januari, då är du inte rik. Då är du bara extremt högt belånad. Bakom de stigande bostadspriserna döljer sig en skör verklighet. Enligt SCB är hushållens marginaler så tunna att en trasig tvättmaskin kan välta hela månaden, trots att medelklassen på pappret aldrig varit rikare. Vi är högpresterande hyresgäster i vår egen tillvaro. Vi bor i miljonbostäder vars värde styrs av räntebesked vi inte rår över.  Vi kör bilar som ägs av finansbolag och finansierar vår livsstil med lån och krediter, en hävstång som skulle få en hedgefondförvaltare att svettas. Pengar på banken ger handlingsutrymme. Teoretiska tillgångsvärden ger främst ett större kreditutrymme.  När bostadspriser stiger ökar inte vår likviditet, utan vår möjlighet att belåna oss ännu mer.  Systemet belönar skuldsättning framför sparande och förvandlar lån med uppskjuten risk till något so...

 Elisabeth Svantesson vill utreda ett införande av euron om hon får fortsätta som finansminister efter valet.  Samtidigt säger Tidösamarbetets största parti nej till att avskaffa kronan. ”Det är ett vallöfte”, säger Oscar Sjöstedt (SD), ekonomisk-politisk talesperson.  Inte heller Kristdemokraternas anser att en utredning är aktuellt. Enligt Hans Eklind vill partiet se en ”folklig förankring” för en annan linje innan en utredning om att överge kronan tillsätts.  Altinget 29 januari 2026 https://www.altinget.se/eu/artikel/tidosplittring-om-euroutredning-sd-och-kd-sager-nej Euro eller inte euro? Spöket från 2003 hälsade på i riksdagen Det går tydligen lika bra utan euro. Faktum är att det mesta har gått bra utan euro, vilket framgick av tisdagens riksdagsdebatt. En tidsresenär från folkomröstningen 2003 hade häpnat. 2003 var första gången vi gick genom ett hårt polariserat debattklimats bisarra interiörer.  Att säga nej till euron var en social katastrof i de bild...

Why Iran's response to a US attack could be different this time BBC 30 January 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn9z497g4vvo The USS Abraham Lincoln -  Accompanying the vessel on Monday were three guided-missile destroyers — part of the “beautiful armada” the US president has ordered towards Iran.  It is the largest build-up of US military assets in the region since B-2 bombers dropped 30,000lb bombs on three of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities in June last year. “This looks like the US is planning to use military force”, both offensively and defensively, said Seth Jones, a former Pentagon and US special operations official. “What is less clear [are] the objectives.” FT 29 January 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/c1218f3a-0e56-43d3-bd8e-c5ab911394db Is America about to attack Iran? Donald Trump says he is willing to negotiate. He might be bluffing What, precisely, is in Mr Trump’s cross-hairs is less clear. Diplomats set out several scenarios.  One is symbol...

US Dollar Falls Again as Debasement Fears Outweigh Bessent’s Boost The dollar fell, halting Wednesday’s bounce, as the return of the so-called debasement trade outweighed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s affirmation of the strong-greenback policy. + The dollar hasn’t acted like a haven currency for a while as investors prefer tangible havens such as precious metals, DoubleLine Capital chief executive officer Jeffrey Gundlach said. Bessent had offered support for the sinking greenback Wednesday, saying “the US always has a strong dollar policy.” “Bessent is employing a bit of strategic ambiguity,”  The debasement trade is a bet on a long-term decline in the dollar’s purchasing power due to concerns over unpredictable US policy making, unsustainably large deficits and increasing US isolation. Bloomberg 29 January 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-29/dollar-falls-again-as-debasement-fears-outweigh-bessent-s-boost Gundlach https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q...