Englund

On Friday, while markets were still open, the Iranian leadership announced that the Strait of Hormuz was open, while the US declared that Iran was surrendering all its nuclear material.  Over the weekend, we learned that these things weren’t strictly true.  The flow of tankers through the waterway fell virtually to nothing a week into the conflict.  As oil traders point out, the effects wouldn’t yet be evident in much of the world, as it typically takes a tanker about six weeks to get from the Strait to New York and almost a month to reach Shanghai. Companies keep inventories of oil.  The problem is yet to make itself felt with full force If Monday is a down day for the S&P 500, it will be only the second since the rally ignited on March 31, catalyzed at the time by a comment from Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian that the country was ready to end the war but “needed guarantees.” In the subsequent 14 trading days, the S&P rose 12.33%, marking only the fifth ...

”Det är mycket som talar för börsen just nu, och marknaden är väldigt snabb på att prisa in framtiden. Vi tittar inte på nuläget, utan sex till nio månader framåt.” ”FOMOOP” – Fear Of Missing Out Of Peace. Det är en variant av den välkända FOMO-effekten, där investerare drivs av rädslan att missa en uppgång.  Det finns en rädsla att stå utanför när det vänder”, säger Anders Rudolfsson. DI 20 april 2026, 07:19 https://www.di.se/nyheter/borsveteranen-fomoop-rader-tre-faktorer-talar-for-nya-rekord/

There are two significant reasons earnings expectations have soared—and they are both probably temporary. It’s six months, give or take, since AI excitement drove stock valuations above their 2020 bubble high to reach the highest since 2000, the peak of the dot-com bubble. Something odd has happened since: Valuations, measured as the price-to-earnings or PE ratio, have plunged, while stocks rose to a record high this week. This isn’t just unusual. It is unprecedented in data back to 1985. There are two big reasons earnings expectations have soared. The first is that microchip prices have soared because of huge artificial-intelligence demand.  The second is the war in Iran, which has given energy companies a huge boost. The question for investors: Do the stocks, that have benefited from these one-off boosts, really offer better value now? James Mackintosh Bloomberg 18 April 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-record-stock-market-rests-on-some-big-one-offs-7e7a2500

RE: Man vågar inte tänka på vad som skulle hända om fredsprocessen havererar. 2026/04/17 Paul Krugman: The futures markets are closed for the weekend. So let’s see what happens when they reopen Sunday night. 2026/04/18 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/18-april-iran-hormuz-sundet-stangs-igen.html On Sunday, Trump said negotiators would arrive in Islamabad on Monday.   But Tasnim News Agency, which is closely linked to Iran’s military and security services, reported that Iran has no intention of sending its negotiators due to the US navy’s continuing blockade of Iranian ports. Financial Times 19 April 2026 17:11 https://www.ft.com/content/0e51cdea-99df-4913-8c71-03396c4a6faf?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Iranian gunboats fire on tanker https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/18/world/video/us-iran-talks-pakistan-hormuz-robertson-latam-intl Can Trump finally make a nuclear deal with Iran? After going to war twice, the US president is again trying to strike a deal on the regime’s uranium enric...

Eden Island, an artificial island Mahé, Seychelles. Sun, Sand and ‘Unlimited’ Leverage Offshore havens like the Seychelles are enabling online trading firms to offer high-risk bets to retail investors. Officials are leaving the country’s key appeal — the complete absence of leverage limits — untouched,  defying a global effort to protect retail investors and enabling brokers to provide risky wagers they’d be forbidden to offer if they were based in places like the US or European Union. Seychelles-based firms offering these amplified trades say they’re simply responding to investor demand. The country’s finance minister and central bank governor say that authorities are continuously improving the nation’s “robust” financial framework. Similar booms unfolding in other offshore destinations like Mauritius, Vanuatu and Belize. In the past two decades, under international pressure and increased scrutiny from anti-money laundering bodies, it has gradually tightened its rules to bett...

  The US president has done more than anyone to accelerate the collapse of the fossil fuel system. The bittersweet joke in energy circles is that the Nobel committee should create a new climate prize to reward Donald Trump for his outstanding services. Nobody has done more to accelerate the world’s electrotech revolution and pull forward the irreversible collapse of the oil and gas industry – not even Greta Thunberg, Al Gore or the strategic planners of the Chinese Communist Party. Currie says the elemental contract of the petrodollar system is, or was, that the US would keep the sea lanes open and protect oil and gas producers from all foes. In return, the petrostates would recycle their vast earnings into US Treasuries and Wall Street, letting America enjoy the exorbitant privilege of inexhaustible cheap capital.  “The grand bargain has been violated,” he said. You might think that US oil and gas companies would be celebrating the windfall profits of Trump’s war, but the moo...

  Urban Deli https://urbandeli.se/ 17 april. Otmar Issing, Cecilia Skingsley och Anna Kinberg Batra. Trump Peace is at hand? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/17-april-otmar-issing.html

Trump Says Iran’s Concessions Pave Way for Deal to End War President Donald Trump claimed Iran has made key concessions in negotiations with the US and that a deal to end the war could be announced “fairly soon.” Trump said it may be unnecessary to renew a two-week ceasefire with Iran before it expires next week, and that the two sides might meet for a second round of direct negotiations this weekend. Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire starting in the early hours of Friday, with Trump saying US officials would work with both sides to secure a lasting deal. His repeated predictions of a quick end to the war are nonetheless reinforcing optimism in global markets. Wall Street  closed at all-time highs April 17, 2026 at 9:04 AM GMT+2 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-17/trump-says-iran-s-concessions-pave-way-for-deal-to-end-war USA:s president Donald Trump säger att kriget i Iran ”bör vara över ganska snart” under en presskonferens i Las Vegas natten till fre...

  Sveriges bytesbalansöverskott större än Kinas https://www.ekonomifakta.se/sakomraden/makroekonomi/handel/bytesbalans-internationellt_1212708.html How to end the war in Iran If they are not to return to a futile war, America and Iran will have to ensure the ceasefire produces a lasting peace, by opening the strait and settling their dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme.  The first stage is reopening the strait, which should be possible for Iran and America to agree on—after all, each side knows it could force closure again. The second stage will be about Iran’s nuclear programme. The outlines of a deal are simple here, too: Iran must close off its path to a nuclear weapon in return for more sanctions relief.  Unfortunately, everything about the details will be tricky. The Economist 15 April 2026 https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/04/15/how-to-end-the-war-in-iran Europe has "maybe six weeks of jet fuel left", the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warn...

Olof Ehrenkrona ställer frågan: Vem minns världen av igår som den såg ut den 27 februari 2026?  Då fartygen seglade fritt i Persiska viken och försörjde världen med olja och gas. Så sent som den 26 februari hade Irans förhandlare signalerat sin vilja att kompromissa om ett nytt avtal i stället för det som Trump hade kastat i papperskorgen tio år tidigare.  Mycket talar för att USA inte ville ha ett avtal utan bara en kapitulation. Kombinationen av den israeliske premiärministern Netanyahus omdömeslösa risktagande och Trumps sedimenterade oförmåga att utöva sitt ämbete som USA:s president  I Iran gällde alltjämt den högste ledarens fatwa som förbjöd användningen av kärnvapen.   Den inre spärren som fanns i Iran för att utveckla kärnvapen och hota Israel med utplåning är borta i och med elimineringen av Khamenei. Olof Ehrenkrona SvD 2026-04-14 https://www.svd.se/a/gkdJ4L/en-utveckling-driven-av-de-omdomeslosa RE: Man tror inte sina ögon. Ehrenkrona litade  på...

Iran holds the trump card   The last pre-war shipments are arriving in Europe, if they have not already been sucked away by desperate Asian buyers willing to pay higher prices. All Tehran must do is survive for another few months and wait for the oil crunch to really bite. It would take at least 200,000 US ground troops and months of fighting to secure the long Iranian coastline and knock out the remaining missile launchers and drone units hidden in the mountains. US navy is now expected to board and seize Chinese-flagged ships, constituting a direct attack on China’s energy supply chain. This is arguably an act of war – “the law of the jungle”, as Xi Jinping put it on Tuesday morning.  “We will never allow any foreign force to bully, oppress or subjugate us. Anyone who would attempt to do so will find themselves on collision force with a great wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people,” he said. The world market for physical oil is already under extreme str...