Englund

  The curse of Europe’s one-size-fits-all currency union has struck again. Real interest rates set by the uropean Central Bank (ECB) are too high for France’s stagnant high-debt economy. At the other extreme, borrowing costs are too low for Portugal and Bulgaria, whose economies are overheating and property prices are surging at annual rates above 15pc. The latest caretaker government has imposed a status quo budget by decree power, using the infamous Article 49.3 after it promised not to do so. This tension is now pitting France against Germany. “France has the highest level of public spending in Europe, the highest budget deficit in the eurozone and the fastest rising public debt,” said François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the Bank of France, speaking to the French senate. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 27 February 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/02/27/france-has-become-the-giant-problem-child-of-the-eurozone/

  Given the Strait carries about one in five barrels of oil in the world, if it is shut down “you are dealing with a monumental shock to the global oil price”.  Financial Times 1 March 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/31bfc01b-42a8-45f1-85d3-8f973595a456 War in Iran could cause the biggest oil shock in years On February 28th the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s praetorian guard, broadcast warnings that shipping through the strait was no longer permitted. Enforcing that threat will be hard. American forces would probably dismantle any blockade within hours. Yet the strait is fast becoming unnavigable anyway.  Satellite jamming is disrupting ships’ signals, raising the risk of collisions. Iran could deploy mines to make navigation even more hazardous. In the early hours of March 1st the Skylight, a Palau-flagged tanker blacklisted by America, was hit by a rocket off the coast of Oman. Insurers are jacking up rates or cancelling policies altogether for v...

For the habitual critics of U.S. foreign policy in general and Donald Trump’s in particular, the analogy between today’s air raids against Iran and the invasion of Iraq nearly 23 years ago is too obvious to be resisted. “Once again,” Simon Tisdall ranted in The Guardian, “a bellicose US president has unleashed overwhelming military firepower to force a sovereign nation to its knees. Once again, blatant lies and exaggerated claims are being propagated to justify the attack. Duplicitous American diplomacy became a fig leaf for premeditated aggression. The cautionary advice of allies was spurned. The UN, international law, and public opinion were ignored. Democratic consent is lacking. And once again, there are few defined goals by which to gauge success, and no long-term plan. . . . Like Bush, Trump manufactured a crisis, founded on falsehood, and effectively cornered himself.” And so on. Kriget mot Iran kan göra ”vinnaren” Trump till en förlorare Det är sant att USA länge har varit en i...

Nu ska Högsta domstolen avgöra om den tidigare Swedbankchefen ska sitta i fängelse för att ha mörkat bankens problem.   Alltihop började med att Estlands finansinspektion i flera år kritiserade Danske Banks Estlandsfilial för att den såg mellan fingrarna med hur så kallade högriskkunder i öst, framför allt rika ryssar, slussade pengar från sina hemländer till skatteparadis som Brittiska Jungfruöarna. Danske Banks filial i landet förlorade sitt banktillstånd 2015. Den 19 september 2018 presenterades utredningen, som kom fram till att motsvarande 2 000 miljarder svenska kronor hade slussats in och ut ur filialen 2007–2015 och att de flesta transaktioner var misstänkta. - Vi hittade ingenting. Vi har gått igenom alla kunder som var med i mediernas rapportering om Danske Bank och ingen av dem är, eller har varit, kunder i Swedbank. Inte en enda. Det var korrekt, som Birgitte Bonnesen sa, att ingen av de kunder som var med i mediernas rapportering om Danske bank var kund i Swedbank...

Keynes saw where AI might take us .Photographer: Tim Gidal/Picture Post/Hulton Archive/Getty Images In 1930, John Maynard Keynes took time out from thinking about the Great Depression, which was throwing millions out of work, to write a charming essay about the “economic possibilities for our grandchildren.”  Our grandchildren would be able to meet all their material needs by working 15 hours a week. But this would leave what Keynes called “the permanent problem of the human race.” How to use the resulting freedom from economic necessity to live a good life — or as Keynes put it “how to live wisely and agreeably and well.” AI may be about to prove Keynes spectacularly right just in time for his century deadline.  The AI revolution is beginning to do for knowledge work what the combine harvester did for agricultural jobs and the factory did for mechanical jobs — mechanizing routine tasks that were once reserved for human beings  Jobs provide people with a combination of ps...

För att uppgången ska fortsätta måste andra sektorer ta över taktpinnen. De globala börserna klättrar vidare och även i Stockholm avlöser rekorden varandra. Varje nedställ köps snabbt upp och kurserna pressas högre. Men under ytan bubblar det Så länge kapitalet rör sig vidare – från tech till finans, från tillväxt till värde, från USA till Europa – kan trenden leva vidare även om de tidigare vinnarna tappar fart. Problemet uppstår först om rotationen stannar av. Enligt börsprofilen Erik Hansén. Semir Hasanbegovic DI 27 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/expertens-borslarm-en-klassisk-varningssignal/ Fondspararna utlöser nästa börskrasch, tror jag. De stora placerarna, typ pensionsfonder, brukar rotera, vilket är att de säljer några slags aktier och köper några andra aktieslag. Men pengarna på marknaden är oförändrad. Med aktiefonder är det annorlunda. När fondspararna löser in andelar måste fonden sälja och utbetala pengarna. Då slinker pengarna ut ur marknaden. Rolf Englund 23 fe...

FS KKR shares tumble 15% as markdowns highlight growing strains in debt extended to unlisted companies https://www.ft.com/content/06213ba6-5634-4c1c-b949-07013824c79f   Credit Market’s Reality Check Follows Decade of Loose Lending Investors have been drawn to high yields—but opacity, complexity and hidden “cockroaches” are worth worrying about. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-02-05/the-pessimist-s-guide-to-the-credit-boom

Almost 70 years after the bloc’s founders set out a course for “ever closer union,” key countries still aren’t ready to commit.  So the EU limps forward, unprepared for a new age of global conflict and at risk of living up to Emmanuel Macron’s warning in 2024: Unless it changes course, things could fall apart. Macron has spent his entire political career wrestling with euroskeptic opponents. When he steps down next year, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is in a strong position to finally claim the French presidency after a series of near misses. Ever since Dutch and French voters threw out a constitutional treaty in 2005, successive generations of EU leaders swerved treaty change, afraid of career-ending, Union-damaging rejection. The least dramatic — but surely most European — end would involve not a sudden collapse but a gradual fading away. While the bloc’s structures would endure, it would slowly lose its ability to shape the policy of its members and global rivals. When Mario Dr...

https://www.sverigesradio.se/avsnitt/horace-engdahl-standigt-i-krig

Tungt veckoslut på Wall Street Oro över AI, inflation och en bankkollaps sänkte Wall Streets humör rejält. Nvidia föll ytterligare 4,2 procent https://www.di.se/live/tungt-veckoslut-pa-wall-street/ Wall Street’s financial firms ended February bruised and battered.  The month witnessed the continued march of artificial intelligence as advances in the technology increasingly augur reckonings for legacy industries. Throw in more signs of private credit’s expensive shortcomings, and you had a winter recipe for red ink. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-27/february-can-t-end-too-fast-for-banks-evening-briefing-americas https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-02-27-2026/card/bank-stocks-head-for-worst-day-since-april-YBqboCCBtVytEUIBKhXq Börsen 16 april 2024 börjar neråt - ”horoskop för killar” Bank Shares Hit Three-Month Low Heightened anxiety about the threat from artificial intelligence and suddenly shaky bets on private credit delivered ...

When Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933, Germany’s economy was in dire straits. Under Chancellor Heinrich Brüningthe German government had clung dogmatically to economic orthodoxy in the face of the Great Depression, staying on the gold standard /fast växelkurs/ and imposing ever harsher fiscal austerity /den som är satt i skuld är inte fri/.  The result was economic devastation and extremely high unemployment. Hitler broke with the economic orthodoxy, enabling him to preside over a rapid economic recovery.  The popularity he gained from the economic revival allowed him to consolidate power. Paul Krugman Substack Feb 27, 2026 https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-economics-of-faltering-fascism There was hyperinflation during the Weimar era, and it did contribute to a general sense of chaos that undermined the fledgling republic.  But that peaked in 1923, the year Hitler botched a putsch and went to jail — a full decade before he seized power.  https://englundmacro.b...

The week when AI changed everything The stock market tumbled. Anthropic new tools and then Anthropic entered into an epic battle with Pentagon. Block laid off 4,000 people — nearly half of its staff — because of AI.  What a week, indeed. Here’s how it unfolded. Auzinea Bacon CNN  Feb 28, 2026 https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/28/business/ai-week-anthropic-nvidia-block In the past, infrastructure was built for a new technology and it often took years for that infrastructure to be fully employed.  It’s unlikely that today’s prices for enormously profitable companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google are going to turn out to have been ruinously excessive.  On the other hand, the start-ups to which multi-billion-dollar valuations are being assigned — some of which have yet to describe their strategies or announce products — can only be viewed as lottery tickets.  Most people who participate in lotteries end up with worthless tickets, but the few winners get very ri...

Handelsdagen i USA präglades av Nvidias rapport, som utlöste stora ras i flera halvledarbolag.  Nvidia föll 5,5 procent. Det innebär att runt 260 miljarder dollar, motsvarande nära 2.300 miljarder kronor, gått upp i rök. Broadcom föll 10,6 procent, vilket innebär att runt 55 miljarder dollar, motsvarande 500 miljarder kronor, av bolagets börsvärde gått upp i rök. Trojkan Micron, AMD och Intel tappade runt 3 procent var, motsvarande ett sammanlagt börsvärdestapp på motsvarande 600 miljarder kronor. https://www.di.se/live/chipfrossa-sankte-nasdaq-spotify-steg-rejalt/ Stockholmsbörsen föll från intradagshögsta när halvledarfrossa  pressade Wall Street.  https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-sankte-stockholmborsen/ Börsvärde på 3.000 miljarder kronor upp i rök på en timme https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/borsvarde-pa-3000-miljarder-kronor-gatt.html “this time it’s different”. On the other hand, Sir John Templeton, who first drew my attention to those four words, was qui...

Klarrött i chipbolagens aktier på Wall Street efter Nvidias rapport.  Nvidia backar mer än 4 procent. Det innebär att nära 218 miljarder dollar, motsvarande nära 2.000 miljarder kronor, gått upp i rök.  DI 26 februari 2026, 17:03 https://www.di.se/live/3-000-miljarder-upp-i-rok-i-halvledarraset/ RE: Det är 96 procent kvar, vilket ger en indikation på hur stort värdet på Nvidia är. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/nvidia-rekordkvartal-resultat-per-aktie.html

The K-shaped economy is creating new challenges for food companies. The traditional strategy—once built around a broad, stable middle class—has effectively collapsed.  Companies that previously sold to the masses now need to deploy two distinct playbooks: one for cash-strapped shoppers and another for higher-income consumers buoyed by rising stock markets. Higher earners have the “ability to invest” when promotions hit. They can buy 10 of an item on sale because they have both the liquid capital and the physical space—large pantries or even second freezers—to store it.  Wall Street Journal 26 February 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/how-the-k-shaped-economy-plays-out-in-grocery-aisles-dc29121c What is a K-shaped economy? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/bessent-kill-line-and-k-shaped-economy.html In the 1960s and ‘70s, the US had a robust middle class, and the national income distribution looked like a bell curve.  h ttps://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/...

Replanting themselves and their families in lands they find more affordable and safe.   A millions-strong diaspora is studying, telecommuting and retiring overseas. The new American dream, for some of its citizens, is to no longer live there. Sunset in Cadaques Spain. Tony Hicks/Associated Press On a conference call last month hosted by Expatsi, a relocation company, almost 400 Americans signed up to learn how to move to Albania.  The former Stalinist state offers a special visa allowing U.S. citizens to live and work there, with no tax on foreign income for a year, no questions asked. Michael Le Blanc, a 56-year-old former creative producer at Adobe and Paramount now freelancing from Lisbon, moved with his two children after the second active shooter scare at his 8-year-old son’s Los Angeles school.  In the six months since, his wife, Stephanie, a 42-year-old academic adviser in the U.S., has found work selling Lisbon real estate to incoming Americans.  Some 58...

Hon påstår att hon har gjort vad hon kunnat för att skydda folkets ekonomiska intressen genom krisen och att nu är pengarna för reformer nästa mandatperiod slut. Det är inte sant. Låt oss syna Svantessons bluff. Annie Ross, ordförande i s-föreningen Reformisterna Pengarna är inte slut - de har bara flyttat till de rikastes bankkonton. Medan vanligt folk blivit fattigare har den rikaste tiondelen av befolkningen fått det rejält bättre.  Fler skattebefriade aktievinster, riktade skatteavdrag för miljonärer och skräddarsydda skatteavdrag till riskkapitalister har alla tillfallit ett litet antal människor i samhällets ekonomiska topp.  Och fortsätter göra det för varje år som går. Blir det här valet en kamp om vem som är bäst på att, helt i onödan, dra åt svångremmen, minska underskott och vara allra mest sparsam? Annie Ross, ordförande i s-föreningen Reformisterna DI 26 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/debatt/att-pengarna-ar-slut-ar-en-bluff/ Just nu är Sverige ett attraktivt alte...

The bets come amid rising anxiety around how the AI buildup might ultimately play out, with investors torn between fears the technology won’t live up to hype—or worse, that it will succeed beyond imagination and devastate the economy.  For bears, the bet is simply that tech giants won’t ever see sufficient profits to justify their massive AI spending commitments and sky-high valuations. Wall Street Journal 25 February 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/skeptical-investors-are-hunting-for-ways-to-short-the-ai-frenzy-8790baf9 Wall Street Doesn’t Know What to Think About AI Anymore “It just taps into how fragile the investor sentiment is right now. There aren’t a lot of strongly held convictions out there,”    “All it takes is somebody to put together a doomsday scenario and it’s enough to shake some people out of their positions in this kind of environment.” Bloomberg February 25, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-25/wall-street-doesn-t-know-wh...

Rheinmetall produces ammunition, armoured vehicles  and components for the Leopard 2 tank German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stepped up scrutiny of military procurement amid mounting concerns that large manufacturers such as Rheinmetall will benefit disproportionately from the country’s €500bn defence budget. One government insider voiced concern that the defence ministry was “spending a huge amount of money” on conventional weapons such as armoured vehicles and fighter jets. Financial Times February 25, 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/420c906f-33fe-4c98-acd2-1152f21c1443

Warnings about the $1.8 trillion industry have been building  in recent days, triggered by Blue Owl Capital , with some comparing it to the 2008 financial crisis and others arguing the gloom is overdone. industry have been building  One way to drum up cash may involve selling assets to collateralized loan obligations, Citigroup analysts flagged.  Such a move could cause leverage to balloon tenfold while masking risk, they warned. Some estimates suggest that the firms have 40% of all sponsor-backed loans tied up in the software industry. Money manager Danny Moses, meanwhile, of The Big Short fame, said the aggressive push by private markets into retail products reminds him of the years preceding the subprime mortgage crisis. Earlier this week JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon doubled down on his previous warnings of credit market “cockroaches,” lambasting the “dumb things” some lenders are doing and highlighting the similarities to the run-up to ...

Its troubles started with the 2008 financial crisis, which saddled the banking system with some €200 billion ($240 billion) in bad loans at its peak. As lenders collapsed and unpaid debt was transferred from one institution to another, money for new construction dried up. That collided with Spain becoming the euro zone’s fastest-growing major economy since 2022 and migration steadily increasing the population. The Covid pandemic stalled a reckoning as the government forbid evictions of vulnerable residents.  Known as the “social shield,” the measure was initially valid for 12 months, but as the problem intensified, Spain’s Socialist-led minority government managed to extend it every year since. Critics say that by forbidding evictions of vulnerable tenants while not doing enough to ease housing shortages, the measure has created incentives for strapped tenants to stop paying. Gemma López is one of these strapped owners. In 2022, the 44-year-old started renting out her parents’ apar...

I oktober gjorde Verisure en hajpad börsnotering. Busslaster med entusiastiska medarbetare viftade med flaggor, konfettin yrde och vd:n ringde i börsklockan. Då värderades bolaget till 170 miljarder. I början av februari; Verisures lönsamhet var inte riktigt på den nivå som man hade hoppats. Kursen kollapsade och ligger nu långt under introduktionspriset. 60–70 miljarder har gått upp i rök. 60 procent av bolagen har gått sämre än index, till och med på minus sedan första januari. ”Det här säger en hel del om börsläget just nu. Det ser bra ut på pappret men egentligen är den underliggande känslan att det är otroligt trögt och oroligt.” Det säger Felicia Schön, sparekonom på Avanza. Förklaringen är inte så komplicerad. Index är viktat efter börsvärde. ABB, Atlas Copco, Sandvik, Boliden, Epiroc och Volvo AB har alla klättrat över 15 procent under 2026.  Felicia Schön vore inte sparekonom om hon inte också såg en möjlighet i det här scenariot. För den riskvilliga kan det vara köpläge, ...