Englund

Ett slags perfekt storm av geopolitik, handelskrig och svaga marknader https://www.di.se/ledare/samuelssons-krisplan-inte-nog-for-att-radda-volvo-cars/ Porsche and Volvo Victims of Deglobalization Europe’s automakers were huge beneficiaries of globalization, but now the hangover has arrived — and Porsche AG and Volvo Car AB look particularly sickly. Worryingly, their profits have collapsed even before the full impact of US tariffs has been felt.  It’s still unclear whether as a Chinese-owned manufacturer — Volvo’s majority shareholder is Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. — it can even keep selling cars in the US under Washington’s new cyber security rules. Bloomberg  29 april 2025  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-29/trump-s-tariffs-porsche-and-volvo-become-victims-of-deglobalization   Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 29 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-29-april-2025.html

U.S. trade deficit in goods soars to all-time high as businesses aimed to beat Trump tariffs.  Surged 10% in March to an all-time high of $162 billion U.S. goods imports $343 billion.  Exports $181 billion Market Watch 29 april 2025  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-trade-deficit-in-goods-soars-to-record-high-as-businesses-aimed-to-beat-tariff-price-hikes-66a88512 America borrowing from abroad to spend on consumption https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/america-borrowing-from-abroad-to-spend.html USA:s växande nettoskuld till omvärlden https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/kalla-mattias-lundback-facebook-mattias.html Elementa; Handelsbalans och bytesbalans, Heder åt Ekonomifakta och Tidningen Vastsverige https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/elementa-handelsbalans-och-bytesbalans.html Peter Wolodarski; ”underskottet” är ett mått på styrka. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/peter-wolodarski-underskottet-ar-ett.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 29 ...

  This week will see another Liberation Day—in Vietnam. I walked along the parade route leading to the former Presidential Palace, now Reunification Palace. In America we remember it differently. As Saigon fell, Operation Frequent Wind evacuated 7,000 Americans and locals. Helicopters ran in 10-minute intervals to the USS Okinawa and other ships in the Seventh Fleet.  The last helicopter out—the famous photo you may remember is from the Pittman apartment building the day before—left the U.S. Embassy around 8 a.m., evacuating the last of a Marine Guard. Later that day, North Vietnamese troops in a Soviet tank, and, with a hint of the future, an identical Chinese knockoff, busted through the gates and liberated the palace, ending the war.  It’s well beyond my pay grade to relitigate the Vietnam War, but there are so many lessons. The first was the damage to America’s national self-esteem. We lost. A major rationale for the Vietnam War was the domino theory—that saving South...

Though he had his ups and downs, his failures as well as successes, he remains one of the most important and respected figures of the 20th Century. No human is super-human. Everyone makes mistakes. Nobody knows everything. Sometimes even the best screw up. I am personally a friend and advocate of the gold standard, but I believe that when Churchill attempted to restore the British pound’s connection to the yellow metal, he erred in a way that produced monumentally negative consequences for Britain and the world. Britain suspended the pound’s convertibility into gold during the calamity of World War I. Doing so allowed the government to print a volume of paper money its gold reserves wouldn’t otherwise permit. The value of the pound fell, and price inflation soared. In the early 1920s, a public debate began around whether Britain should return to the discipline of the gold standard. He became Chancellor of the Exchequer (the equivalent of Treasury Secretary) in 1924 The problem with the...

  Trump Unleashing Nationalist Support for Xi The worry among government officials ... has reinforced concerns that his administration simply wants to contain China’s rise and have the US win at all costs. China’s nationalist moment buys Xi time to find solutions for an economy that was already hobbled by a real estate crisis and deflationary slowdown before Trump’s tariffs, leading to rising social discontent.  Bloomberg Economics calculates that tariffs at the current levels could wipe out more than 80% of China’s exports to the US The phrase “Comrade Trump builds China” is commonly used on China’s tightly controlled internet to show how he’s hurting the US.  Others have compared the president’s chaotic attacks on the bureaucracy to Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution, when red guards were deployed to destroy official institutions. Xi faced some internal criticism for turning the nation into a target by abandoning former leader Deng Xiaoping’s “hide and bide” strategy, whi...

Det finns skäl att erinra om vad författaren Lars Gustafson skrev i en betraktelse om mekanismerna bakom samarbetet mellan fonderna och de företagsledare och andra som betraktar löntagarfonderna som ett bestående inslag i den svenska modellen. Det fel som kollaboratörerna begick, säger Jean-Paul Sartre i en berömd och tänkvärd uppsats från 1945, bestod inte så mycket i att de sympatiserade med de tyska ockupanterna, utan snarare i att de betraktade kampens utgång som given. https://www.internetional.se/Englund_taggtrad_aktorerna.pdf Det kan nog vara en förklaring till att så många ställer upp på EUs sida. Likt Tyskland i början av kriget framstår Europeiska Unionen i dag för många som framtidens segrare. Sartre’s behavior during the occupation Sartre’s plays, such as Huis Clos (No Exit), were read by some admirers (and certainly by Sartre himself, in hindsight) as veiled expressions of anti-Nazi protest.  But they were passed without problem by the German censors, and German office...

Östersjöstiftelsen har grundats av löntagarfondspengar. Torbjörn Isacson DI  28 april 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/efter-di-s-granskning-advokatbyra-sagar-ostersjostiftelsen/ Östersjöstiftelsen, en av landets tyngsta forskningsfinansiärer   förvaltar 8 miljarder kronor https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/ostersjostiftelsen-och-lontagarfonderna.html

  The next ten-fold increase will be equivalent to multiplying the world’s entire fleet of nuclear reactors by eight  in less than the time it typically takes to build just a single one of them. The Economist: Solar Power An energy-rich future is within reach What makes solar energy revolutionary is the rate of growth In 2009, when installed solar capacity worldwide was 23gw, the energy experts at the IEA predicted that in the 20 years to 2030 it would increase to 244gw.  It hit that milestone in 2016, when only six of the 20 years had passed.  The world’s solar capacity hit 1,419gw last year. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/what-makes-solar-energy-revolutionary.html Global solar dominance in sight as science trumps fossil fuels Solar power will slowly squeeze the revenues of petro-rentier regimes in Russia, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. They will have to find a new business model, or fade into decline. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 9 April 2014, RPT 2014 https://e...

  With all due humility, I believe that the recent dollar  depreciation of 5 per cent has considerably further to go. Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-dollar-has-further-to-fall-chief.html Whatever happens with Trump’s tariffs, investors need to prepare for a new market paradigm I’d point to three fundamental issues, starting with an over-reliance on asset price-driven economic growth. The exposure of US households to stocks is near an all-time high  (equities and mutual funds represent 26 per cent of total household assets),  which implies much more vulnerability to any market downturn, for both individuals and the overall economy. Another significant concern I have about US markets is the sharp increase in private sector debt and leverage over the past few years.  Corporate borrowing from private credit markets has been booming, particularly from companies that would have been considered too risky...

  Annie Reuterskiöld: Nu får någon annan försöka rädda Liberalerna - DN.se America borrowing from abroad to spend on consumption https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/america-borrowing-from-abroad-to-spend.html Solenergi - Solar Power Watch: Londoner creates live 3D Tube map A London-based developer has created a live 3D map of the London Underground. The interactive map uses real-time TfL data to show trains moving across nine of the 11 Tube lines. https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cd6jlvev478o Growing calls within EU to fast track Ukraine's membership https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/eu-vinnare-pa-trump-och-ukraina.html The spectre of dollar doomsday still looms https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-spectre-of-dollar-doomsday-still.html Hans Wallenstam: ”Man måste vara ödmjuk” Är nöjd med rapporten för det första kvartalet.   https://www.di.se/nyheter/hans-wallenstam-man-maste-vara-odmjuk/ Hus nummer 5 (det närmast Sergels torg)  var ursprungligen tän...

  Det är dollarn bakom allt - Monetary Creation and Destruction del 5 America is running a current account deficit of just over 4pc of GDP.  It has hardly ever run a surplus for the past 50 years. The consequences of these perennial deficits are reflected in the progressive worsening of America’s net international asset position. Whereas in 1980, America had a surplus of foreign assets over liabilities to foreigners of about 10pc of GDP, it now has a deficit of about 80pc.  Such deficits lead to a flow of intrest payments and dividends to those who have provided the finance. America is selling assets and borrowing from abroad in order to spend on consumption – by both households and government. This may be fun while it lasts, but it won’t last forever.  The US position is unsustainable. ... That is not to say that the dollar cannot be depreciated. America’s demand is outstripping its capacity to supply. Most notably, government spending is in excess of government rev...

  The private credit market $1.5 trillion https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/experience-shapes-expectations.html Efter VK 1 styckade segrarmakterna riket Syrien och Libanon till Frankrike. Irak och Palestina till England. Tyska Taurus till Ukraina   Turkey’s People Are Resisting Autocracy.  They Deserve More Than Silence https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/turkeys-people-are-resisting-autocracy.html Konfucianismen  Konfucianismen kan berika vår syn på demokratin genom sitt fokus på att söka balans mellan frihet och ordning, rättigheter och plikter samt individ och kollektiv. The Chinese Dream is to Xi what Maga is to Trump Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-25-april-2025.html Mest lästa inlägg US Bonds Have Never Been Risk-Free; Allison Schrager https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/us-bonds-have-never-been-risk-free.html My website https://internetional.se/ about me https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/what-hav...

  In a dangerous world, democracies cannot afford to alienate every nondemocracy. But any alliance with an autocratic regime requires at least a careful weighing of trade-offs.  President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has personified this dilemma for much of his 22 years in power. Turkey, at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, is an important American partner, with the second-largest military in NATO.  The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said only that the arrest was “deeply concerning.”  If elections were held today, Mr. Imamoglu would probably win, according to polls and political analysts. A self-described social democrat, Mr. Imamoglu, 54, is a member of the Republican People’s Party, which Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded in 1919  Turkey’s drift toward Islamist extremism suggests that it could become another country that supports terrorism and threatens Israel. The most obvious potential for instability is in Syria,...

  You’re Invited to Wall Street’s Private Party. Say You’re Busy. Small-time investors may soon gain easier access to so-called private markets. That usually means higher fees, greater risk, more conflicts of interest and a harder time selling. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/youre-invited-to-wall-streets-private.html Plender - As the IMF has warned, the rise and rise of private credit brings systemic risks https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/plender-as-imf-has-warned-rise-and-rise.html Private Credit’s Cracks The companies that get private credit loans are looking increasingly wobbly and banks are among those that could eventually be on the hook for losses. Many companies getting direct loans from private lenders are struggling to produce cash, by at least one key measure: At the end of 2024, more than 40% of borrowers had negative free cash flow from their businesses, the International Monetary Fund warned in a report this past week https://www.imf.org/-/media/Fil...

De experter SvD talat med tror att kriget pågår året ut.  – USA har varken någon fast utrikespolitik eller strategi. Det är många ryck fram och tillbaka. Det som kommer ut är huvudsakligen inrikespolitik och ämnat att infria vallöften,  säger Joakim Paasikivi, tidigare överstelöjtnant och numera geopolitisk rådgivare på advokatbyrån Mannheimer & Swartling. https://www.svd.se/a/4B8AVe/ukrainakriget-tar-inte-slut-i-ar-enligt-expert 2018-2023 var Klas Eklund Senior Economist vid advokatbyrån Mannheimer Swartling.  Mannheimer Swartling https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mannheimer_Swartling Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 25 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-25-april-2025.html

From betraying Ukraine to waging trade wars, the American president has proven to be an utter disaster How can anybody have supported Donald Trump in the first place?  It was a sign of desperation, I suppose, as the alternative – president Harris – promised to solidify the cult of identity politics, both in American life and around the world, undercut the West’s commitment to Israel and drive us all further into the quicksands of decline. Already, large majorities of the French, Germans, Italians, Spanish and Britons believe Trump is a threat to peace and security in Europe But is anybody confident that in 2025 the man will hand over power graciously? The most depressing aspect of all of this is that for many beleaguered ordinary people this was their last desperate hope. Telegraph 25 April 2025 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/25/trump-has-blown-his-chance-of-saving-the-west/ EU-federalisterna låtsas vara skrämda av Trump. Som vore han odödlig och president för evigt....

  Bessent och Svantesson på träff i New York https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/bessent-och-svantesson-pa-traff-i-new.html US Budget deficit https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/us-budget-deficit.html Why Zelensky can't and won't give up Crimea https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/why-zelensky-cant-and-wont-give-up.html Sverige är ett litet land; Paasikivi,  Klas Eklund, och Mannheimer & Swartling https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/sverige-ar-ett-litet-land-paasikivi.html The ‘User’s Guide’ plan Stephen Miran  has taken some big hits;  Mike Tyson everyone has a plan until they’re punched in the face https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-users-guide-plan-from-stephen-miran.html Experience shapes expectations https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/experience-shapes-expectations.html Nordea styrräntan i Sverige förblir oförändrad  på 2,25 procent till slutet av 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/riksbankens-prognos...