Inlägg

Vad hände i slutet på augusti?

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  SaP Nvidia lyfte Wall Street: ”AI-vågen inte över” Nasdaqs lyfte med 1,6 procent. Dow Jones handlades upp 0,2 procent.   27 augusti.  CIA chief to Moscow  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/27-augusti.html 26 augusti https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/26-augusti-cia-chief-travels-to-moscow.html 25 augusti. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/25-augusti-china-buys-90-of-irans-oil.html

25 september. Winsth vs.Bratt. 5% Mark New Era. Tectonic shift. Muntert avslut på veckan? Realränta, Englunds lag och Bopriserna. Pimco. Taiwan.

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Irans pris för ett öppnat Hormuz: 120 miljarder USA ska också lyfta sjöblockaden och alla sanktioner mot iransk olja. Om så sker inom loppet av en vecka så släpper Iran på för trafik genom Hormuzsundet igen, enligt förslaget. DI 25 september 2026, 12:23 https://www.di.se/nyheter/irans-pris-for-ett-oppnat-hormuz-120-miljarder/ Stockholmsbörsen går mot ett muntert avslut på veckan. DI 25 september 2026, 12:45 https://www.di.se/live/muntert-pa-borsen-sinch-mot-strommen/      Uppgången tappade fart Avslutade veckan i dur, men tappade stadigt fart  https://www.di.se/live/uppgangen-tappade-fart-ljummet-for-borsdebutanten/ Gårdagens glada nyhet Oljepriset faller tillbaka och Wall Street återhämtar sig i spåren av att Reuters rapporterat att USA och Iran för diskussioner som inkluderar en öppning av Hormuzsundet. DI 24 september 2026, 19:09 https://www.di.se/live/uppgifter-om-hormuzsamtal-oljepriset-faller-tillbaka/ USA-börserna avslutade veckan med en relativt stabil uppgån...

Shadowy bodies, such as the Eurogroup Working Group, exercise enormous power

Prof Lapavitsas learned the hard way as a radical Greek MP during the Athens Spring that it is impossible to pursue radical Left-wing change within the EU.  The machinery of budget surveillance is against you. Contractionary fiscal policies are hard-wired into treaty law through the Fiscal Compact.  Shadowy bodies, such as the Eurogroup Working Group, exercise enormous power beyond any accountability. It is more than odd that Labour continued to cling resolutely to the EU ideal even after observing the fiscal and monetary overkill of the eurozone crisis of 2010-2015, when the EU institutions acted as debt collectors for lenders and incompetently pushed southern Europe into mass unemployment and economic depression. The policy was to force debtor states to cut real wages via an “internal devaluation” within the euro bloc rather than to pressure creditor states to rebalance the system by raising real wages.  This asymmetry in the EU’s governing mechanisms remains in place. ...

The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in U.S. history

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The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in U.S. history, dwarfing the investments made to fund other huge U.S. infrastructure projects  such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet.  Total investment in data centers and related artificial-intelligence infrastructure is projected to total $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032. Through July of this year, a seasonally adjusted $37 billion has been spent on private data-center construction—about $9 billion more than in the first seven months of last year. That level of spending raises risks for the financial sector if the boom goes bust.  Van Nieuwerburgh said often tech companies use off-balance-sheet entities to borrow from banks and private-credit firms, and those deals usually come with little public reporting.  The practice makes it hard to figure out how great the financial risks are, he added. If AI doesn’t generate enough revenue to service the debt raised to buil...

24 september. US 10Y 5,14. Riksbanken 1,75 Jag en enkel bloggare. US 30-Year 5.44% Eurogroup Working Group. Stockholmsbörsen dagslägsta. FOMO.

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Torsdagen blev en trist historia på Stockholmsbörsen som stängde på dagslägsta.   https://www.di.se/live/rod-dag-pa-stockholmsborsen-eqt-och-hochm-foll/ Oljepriset faller tillbaka och Wall Street återhämtar sig i spåren av att Reuters rapporterat att USA och Iran för diskussioner som inkluderar en öppning av Hormuzsundet. DI 24 september 2026, 19:09 https://www.di.se/live/uppgifter-om-hormuzsamtal-oljepriset-faller-tillbaka/ FOMO Wall Street stängde kring nollan Samtidigt fortsätter marknadsräntorna att stiga och den amerikanska 30-åringen nådde den högsta nivån sedan 2004. https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-stangde-kring-nollan-meta-lyfte-och-oracle-foll/ På onsdagen rusade den amerikanska tioårsräntan med 0,14 procentenheter till som högst 5,14 procent och nådde den högsta nivån sedan 2007. Den svenska tioårsräntan ligger för närvarande på 3,20 procent efter en uppgång på 0,10 procentenheter under onsdagen. Dollarn har stärkts kraftigt mot andra valutor på sistone, bland ann...

Authers. Never Have Stocks Owed So Much to So Few. Churchill 1940.

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 Never Have Stocks Owed So Much to So Few It’s a Churchillian moment as the market narrows with each new record. Market breadth has never been this narrow, and yet the domination by a handful of stocks continues to intensify. Half of Tuesday’s rise in the Nasdaq was attributable to four chipmaking companies — Micron., Sandisk, Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia Corp. Getting back to Churchill, it’s worth listening to the audio of his speeches from 1940, when he was new to the job and defeat looked very likely. They’re familiar but still extraordinary. Listen to “Blood, toil, tears and sweat,”  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80_HXIHa724 “We will fight them on the beaches,”  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_LncVnecLA and “Their finest hour.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jjhxeHIjvU In contemporary parlance, he held barely any cards, but nobody ever talked a better fight. John Authers Bloomberg September 23, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-09-23/s...

Larmet: ”Frankrike kan tända ny eurokris”

Riksbankschefen Erik Thedéen: ”Frankrike är ett väldigt tydligt och varnande exempel på vad som händer om politikerna inte sköter sig, utan har mycket stora underskott som späs på ytterligare när räntekostnaderna stiger kraftigt.  Om Frankrike leder till en eurokris eller en fransk kris återstår att se, men det är helt uppenbart att det här är en toxisk kombination av från början ganska dämpad tillväxt”, säger han. DI 24 september 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/thedeen-finns-tre-jokrar-i-ranteleken/ Frankrikes växande statsskuld, skenande räntekostnader och populistiska politiker kan bli startskottet för en ny eurokris, varnar Länsförsäkringar i en ny konjunkturrapport. ”Alla pratar om USA:s långränteuppgång, men titta på den franska tioåringen – den lutar ännu brantare uppåt och skulle kunna tända en ny eurokris. Även Storbritannien har liknande superproblem som USA”, säger Länsförsäkringars chefsekonom Alexandra Stråberg. ”Behöver Europa lösa ut Frankrike som man gjorde med Grekl...

23 september. Trump i FN. Economic theory Discredited. Maria Landeborn. ”Frankrike kan tända ny eurokris”. Brf-marknaden svag prisutveckling.

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  US President Donald Trump said his officials had “very good” talks with Iranian envoys in New York, reviving hopes for a diplomatic off-ramp. Iran laid down “firm positions” for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, including the US immediately lifting a naval blockade, unfreezing Iranian assets and ending the war “on all fronts”. Trump said the three-hour session was “very productive” and another was being planned for the near future, but it’s not clear what, if any, progress was made in New York. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-22/trump-says-us-team-met-with-iranians-earlier-tuesday-in-new-york Sam Altman briefs UN on Ai Bostadsrättsmarknaden har de senaste åren präglats av en ovanligt svag prisutveckling. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/villapriserna-steg-med-06-procent-i.html Efter två dagar av breda uppgångar faller Stockholmsbörsen tillbaka på onsdagen. Bedömare tror dock att börsen kommer repa sig. Victor Hultgren DI 23 september 2026, 13:19 http...

Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of the Kuomintang. Bill Clinton we don't support a one-China, one-Taiwan policy. The Chinese Dream Xi.

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Why Taiwan Is Such a Thorny Issue Between the US and China. Bloomberg 25 September 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/why-taiwan-is-the-most-volatile-issue-for-us- china-relations In April, the leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party traveled to mainland China for a red-carpet six-day tour, the first such visit in nearly a decade. Officials treated Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of the Kuomintang, or KMT, to high-level meetings and a Shanghai river cruise. Beijing is trying to exert more influence on the ground in Taiwan. One way it hopes to do that is by working with Cheng, a 56-year-old former legislator and TV talk-show host who emerged unexpectedly last year as the head of the opposition in Taiwan and a possible future presidential candidate. Tall and telegenic, with smartly tailored suits, she has a delivery so forceful that organizers of a press briefing late last year stopped to re-test three microphones before concluding she simply speaks at what local journalis...

Charles de Gaulle

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A biopic about Charles de Gaulle has been a hit in France, with more than 5.5 million viewers, perhaps because his insistence on independence seems prophetic in the current European context. De Gaulle's life contrasts with the irresponsibility in French politics today, where politicians delay and deny needed changes, and pass on risk, with the country's debt being 118% of its gross domestic product. France's politicians are evading their duty to face facts, with examples including Jean-Luc Melenchon's proposal to "chuck" part of the country's debt "in the fire" and Marine Le Pen's plan to lower the retirement age, which would hurt the country's solvency. A lengthy, two-part biopic of a mid-century politician would be an unlikely hit in most countries. But not, apparently, if the politician is Charles de Gaulle and the country is France.  The films based on Julian Jackson’s 2018 biography of the general - A Certain Idea of France by Julian...

22 september. Yen carry trade. Armenien, Azerbajdzjan och Donald Trump.

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Armenia, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union’s smallest republic, is on track to become one of the world’s top hubs for American AI infrastructure. The role of Nvidia chips in a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan is an example of Trump’s unorthodox approach to AI diplomacy, with chip export regulations being utilized to achieve goals that extend far beyond technology. Bloomberg 22 September 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-22/nvidia-chips-donald-trump-turn-armenia-into-ai-hotspot Armenien, Azerbajdzjan och Donald Trump “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/armenien-azerbajdzjan-och-donald-trump.html Charles de Gaulle  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/charles-de-gaulle.html Hope. Jonathan Livingston Seagull.   https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/hope-jonathan-livingston-seagull.html Oljepriset faller under 100 dollar igen samtidigt som börsen stärks. Enligt uppgifter e...

Hope. Jonathan Livingston Seagull.

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 Då hopp är så viktigt för oss är det sorgligt att konstatera att vi i västvärlden inte hyser särskilt mycket av den varan just nu. Kan det vara så att den minskande marginalnyttan av nya reformer och de begränsade möjligheterna till stora förändringar och framsteg i dag bidrar till att den politiska retoriken blivit så hätsk och polariseringen så påtaglig?  När det inte finns några banbrytande genombrott kvar måste man ändå försöka uppamma en viss entusiasm, ett hopp om en ny gryning, för sina partikamrater, valarbetare och i bästa fall även väljarna.   Torbjörn Elensky Axess 14 september 2026 https://www.axess.se/essaer/var-finns-hoppet-om-inte-i-vast/ Jonathan Livingston Seagull He recovered to level flight and was quiet for a time before he spoke. "Very well," he said, "who are you?" "We're from your Flock, Jonathan. We are your brothers." The words were strong and calm. "We've come to take you higher, to take you home." "Home I ...

CDU under spärren.

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  Deutsche Welle 20 September 2026 https://www.dw.com/en/german-state-elections-deal-a-blow-to-chancellor-friedrich-merz/a-79348585 Share of Germany’s “foreign” population the transformation since the early 1970s. - 40 percent of people under the age of 25 in Germany have a migration background. https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-1230-ai-liability-menschen

Allison Schrager

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  https://manhattan.institute/person/allison-schrager Allison Schrager is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering economics. A senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, she is author of “Worth the Risk: The Seven Myths That Keep Us From Taking the Chances We Need to Take." These retirement accounts were in many ways a triumph, mainly because they became popular right before one of the best stock runs in history. About 20% of Americans are now millionaires. Even a growing economy has bear markets. And the question is how the changing nature of stock ownership will change the nature of bear markets. The US now has a large, captive population of investors who not only own lots of stock no matter what happens, but they also buy more each month through their regular contributions to their retirement plans.  These investors are becoming a large share of the market. In the first quarter of 2026, some $32 trillion was invested in IRAs or defined-contribution plans. This growth in retir...