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$68bn - 656 miljarder kr - wiped off IBM on its worst day ever; more than 25pc https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/07/14/ibm-loses-68bn-in-worst-day-on-record/ ”Den första ronden i sjöslaget är slut. Nu tar vi Svarta havet” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/den-forsta-ronden-i-sjoslaget-ar-slut.html Donald Trump’s return to war with Iran offers no clear path to victory - Behind his bravado it remains unclear how the US president will limit the economic, political and diplomatic costs of the latest escalation, particularly as the autumn midterm elections loom. Financial Times 15 July 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/7a993639-28aa-442a-8ea6-2abaa695b698 One reason prices have not risen further is that oil markets still deem it likely that, with midterm elections four months away, Mr Trump will cave. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/07/14/trumps-hormuz-brinkmanship-is-worsening-a-global-fuel-crunch Ja, vad kan vara viktigare än the midterm elections? T...

"Det är vårt tydliga och ständiga mål, den ledstjärna vi styr efter. Och om vi lyckas med penningpolitiken, vilket vi kommer att göra, kommer inflationsuppgången under de senaste fem åren att höra till historien", sade Fed-chefen Kevin Warsh.  DI 14 juli 2026 https://www.di.se/live/nye-fed-chefen-inte-ok-med-hog-inflation/ Price level and inflation rate https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/price-level-and-inflation-rate.html Inflation Is Still Too High — and Here to Stay Inflation is still too high, with the average rate over the prior three months at 3.8%, almost double the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. The inflation rate may be the new normal, with some economists learning that inflation of more than 2.5% is much worse than thought, and the Fed may not be able to return inflation to its target. It is easy to forget, but it wasn’t that long ago that policy makers wanted 3% to 4% inflation. For much of the 20th century, that level would have been considered a policy su...

På dagens datum, den 14 juli 1683, började de osmanska turkarna belägra Wien, en kraftmätning som slutade med ett stort nederlag. Kampen vid Wien räknas i dag som den stora vändpunkten i kampen om sydöstra Europa, och en av de avgörande händelserna i världsdelens historia överhuvudtaget Kejsar Leopold flydde till Passau och lämnade greve Ernst Rüdiger von Starhemberg med 15 000 man att försvara staden mot omkring 120 000 osmanska soldater (det exakta antalet deltagare i belägringsarmén är okänt). Grevens hopp stod till polackerna. Kung Johan Sobieski lovade att bistå med en stark undsättningskår som kunde avtåga från Kraków i mitten av augusti, men det var långt ifrån säkert att han skulle hinna fram i tid.  Osmanerna skar av Wien från nästan alla möjligheter att erhålla livsmedel från omvärlden och i början av hösten tycktes en osmansk seger vara nära förestående. Inalles tycks Johan Sobieski, som tog ledningen för den samlade undsättnings­hären, ha fört befäl över mellan 70 000 o...

Det skall vi fira14 juli. 18 000 ryttarkrigare under Johan Sobieski överföll de osmanska ställningarna vid slaget om Wien. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/det-skall-vi-fira-14-juli-18-000.html Uppgångarna på Wall Street tilltog under tisdagen. Samtidigt sjönk oljepriset tillbaka efter att under dagen ha nått det högsta nivån på en månad. https://www.di.se/live/gron-stangning-pa-wall-street-yyInx/ Handelsdagen inleddes med tunga nedgångar efter att flera rapporterande bolag fallit. Men under eftermiddagen vände börsen upp igen och stängde runt nollstrecket. I botten bland storbolagen ligger Ericsson som rasade tvåsiffrigt. https://www.di.se/live/stockholmsborsen-aterhamtade-sig/ IBM vinstvarnade. Rasade 25 procent, det största fallet i bolagets historia. https://www.di.se/live/ljusgron-oppning-pa-usa-borserna/ Ukraine said it has hit more than 110 Russian vessels in nine days in the Sea of Azov, making it one of the most concentrated series of attacks on shipping ever to take ...

About 55% of Americans own stocks, and equities now make up the largest share of household net worth, surpassing real estate. Importantly, while the middle class still relies on the value of their homes as the basis of their nest eggs, the wealthiest Americans’ portfolios are heavily dominated by stocks and stakes in private businesses. There was a time when economists treated a stock-market crash as a healthy, cleansing event for the broader economy. But these days, many on Wall Street and in Washington increasingly wonder if another bear market might pose too great a risk to economic security. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas says the government may be increasingly unwilling to tolerate a prolonged bear market.  “K-shaped economy.” Fed has maintained a longstanding focus on protecting the banking system. This is what motivated the central bank to step in after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023. Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch 11 July 2026 https://www.marketwatc...

1776, just a few months before the American Declaration of Independence. Gibbon, who was 38 at the time, would devote the rest of his life to completing what is still the most influential work of history ever written in English:  six volumes in all, with the last of its million and a half words heading to the press 12 years later, in 1788, the year George III became manic and delusional and France suspended payments on its huge national debt. What exactly one gleans from Gibbon, though, has always depended on who is doing the gleaning. Cosmopolitans read him as a defender of tolerance against religious extremism. Anti-authoritarians see him as a champion of republican government over one-man rule. Nationalists quote him on the perils of immigration. The current manosphere cites him as a seer on the dark power of women and the effeminate. All the things we consider normal, dear and true will one day pass away, as they did for the thousands of emperors, queens, citizens, soldiers, ph...

Following a significant market disruption in the summer of 2024. Goldman Sachs strategist Stuart Jenkins attributed the resurgence to a combination of wide interest-rate gaps and subdued currency volatility. MarketWatch 10 July 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-hedge-fund-trade-blamed-for-a-massive-market-blowup-in-2024-has-made-a-big-comeback-goldman-sachs-says-f2308a78 What Are Carry Trades? 2. How does it work?  According to economic theory, the strategy shouldn’t work at all.   3. So why does it work? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/what-s-a-carry-trade-definition-how-it-works-and-key-risks Perpexity Ai tells more https://www.perplexity.ai/computer/tasks/9b14230e-e3ee-4ae5-b91f-9e1175ad7e39?view=thread

A wildfire burns in Noisy-sur-Ecole n ear Fontainebleau, southern Paris Temporary shutdown of three nuclear power stations to avoid the discharge of warm cooling water into overheated waterways. Tour de France cycling race shortened Sunday's stage by 30km as temperatures neared 40C.      BBC 13 July 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clye4z168edo It was Baron Hastings Ismay, Winston Churchill’s military advisor and NATO’s original secretary general, who first described the organization as an alliance to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down.  Last week’s summit was devoted almost entirely to the second task, which is not a healthy sign. Marc Champion Bloomberg 13 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-13/nato-s-ankara-summit-was-more-of-a-warning-than-an-escape Lord Ismay NATO’s first Secretary General had famously said  NATO was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” https...

USA har svarat med en ny våg attacker mot 140 mål. SvT 12 juli 2026 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/iran-stanger-hormuzsundet-usa-svarar-med-nya-attacker Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have destroyed several key US facilities across the Gulf, including a refuelling station for American aircraft carriers at the Port of Duqm, Oman. Five Arab states were targeted during the attacks, including Qatar, a key mediators in peace negotiations, prompting a furious response from the region. The strikes were the most extensive wave of attacks since fighting restarted this week. Telegraph 12 July  2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/12/iran-us-war-latest-gulf-strikes-trump-peace-talks-khamenei/ Aspiring to Regional Domination, Iran Is Ready to Escalate Over Hormuz https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/https-www-wsj-com-world-middle-east-iran-deal-strait-of-hormuz-b027c30f-580ee99f Trump's Iran Blunder Shows Strategy Can Defeat Firepower Tehran had a plan to choke...

”Det nya matriarkatet” kommer troligen att väcka lika mycket uppmärksamhet (och på sina håll upprördhet) som ”Den mjuka staten” från 2024.  Den förra boken beskrev hur kvinnors utökade maktsfärer gjort samhället mjukare och därmed mera sårbart. Den här gången kartläggs de svenska myndigheterna. Jämställdhets­myndigheten, som har till uppgift att verka för en jämn fördelning av makt och inflytande i samhället, är i praktiken en av Sveriges mest ojämställda myndig­heter. Personalstyrkan består till 85 procent av kvinnor. Etikprövningsnämnden: 82 procent kvinnor. Institutet för mänskliga rättig­heter: 81 procent kvinnor.  Myndigheten för delaktighet 80 procent kvinnor. Barn­ombudsmannen: 78 procent kvinnor. K önsfördelningen bland dem som arbetat fram länsstyrelsernas jämställdhets­strategier består till 90 procent av kvinnor. Gunilla Kindstrand SvD 11 juni 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/43R5Gq/recension-det-nya-matriarkatet-av-erikj-olsson-och-catharina-gronqvist-olsson RE: Det är in...

Statsminister Göran Perssons utdragna eurovånda handlade också om valutunionens konstruktion. Går det att ha gemensam valuta utan att också ha gemensam ekonomisk politik?  Merkel och Göran Persson om politisk union och skatteunion https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2012/01/merkel-och-goran-persson-om-politisk.html Vi skulle behöva formulera en tanke om vad vi vill med EU-medlemskapet. Erik Zsiga DI 11 juli 2026 https://www.di.se/ledare/sverige-behover-en-eu-debatt/

Bonds issued by the top five hyperscalers — Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle — are now yielding roughly 0.6 percentage points more than their blue-chip peers with the same ratings and maturities,  RE: 0,6 procent låter inte mycket för en amatör. representing the widest risk premium of any sector in the investment-grade market. “It’s not clear what the industry landscape is going to look like ten years from now.” Michelle Chan Financial Times 10 July 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/28380abc-72f9-4287-8d36-2823c73358ce?syn-25a6b1a6=1 AI investor fatigue Hyperscalers are doubling their capital expenditure this year to some $800bn with scarcely any revenue to show for it yet. “At some point you’ve got to make money. And we’ve gotten further away from that over the last couple of years instead of closer to it,” says Jim Covello, head of global equities at Goldman Sachs. Almost all profit so far has been captured by makers of semiconductor chips and graphics processing units (G...

Forget stock-market ‘FOMO.’ Worry now about ‘NOGO’ — no option but getting out. The next global financial crisis is already under way. Here is how it will unfold. Retail investors, dazzled by FOMO (fear of missing out), FEMO (fabulous earning momentum) based on the other “EBITDA” (earnings before Iran, tariffs, Donald and AI) and TINA (there is no alternative).  Satyajit Das MarketWatch 9 July 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-great-moderation-satyajit-das.html Fotnot: EBITDA står för Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. Tio länder finansierar Natos köp av Globaleye, som presenterades på Natotoppmötet i Ankara. Planet är en Bombardier 6500, som vanligtvis används som businessjet. Men Saab har byggt om den till just ett flygande öga. Ett väldigt skarpt sådant. Therese Larsson Hultin SvD 10 juli 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/K8GpW6/sverige-kan-bli-stor-vinnare-pa-upprustningen Kix-index, som visar den svenska valutans handelsviktade värde,...

Warsh tapped several former policymakers for the task forces, including former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, who led the UK’s central bank through the 2008-09 financial crisis, and Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India who was noted for his early warnings ahead of the global financial crisis. Bloomberg 9 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-09/fed-s-warsh-names-leadership-for-five-new-task-forces Mervyn King King is good at articulating what’s wrong with the global economy, not so good when it comes to solutions. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/mervyn-king.html Raghuram Rajan Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund notes in a thought-provoking new book, the underlying “fault lines” are still with us. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/jag-har-haft-fel-forut-i-dag-14-juli.html Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the ...

  En expert säger att bostadsmarknaden är den bästa illustrationen av den “K-formade ekonomin” som vi befinner oss i just nu. Rekordhöga bostadspriser och stigande bolåneräntor skapar frustration både hos köpare och säljare på stora delar av den amerikanska bostadsmarknaden – men i den övre delen av fastighetsmarknaden ser bilden helt annorlunda ut. Förmögna köpare, som är relativt okänsliga för dagens höga ränteläge, står bakom en livlig försäljning av lyxbostäder.  Den senaste statistiken från bostadsmarknaden pekar på en växande klyfta mellan vanliga amerikanska bostadsköpare och deras rikare motsvarigheter, som till stor del är oberörda av problemen med minskad förmåga att betala dagens bostadspriser.   Ulf Kristersson: Två vanliga löner ska räcka för att köpa och bo i ett hus https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/ulf-kristersson-tva-vanliga-loner-ska.html https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/villasuget-okar-saljs-fler-an-under-pandemin/ Rich home buyers are powering the hou...

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/us-military-launches-strikes-on-iran-for-second-straight-day I Europa väntas en rekyl uppåt  USA genomförde med start sent under onsdagskvällen en ny, sex timmar lång attackvåg mot cirka 90 militära mål i Iran med explosioner i flera städer.  Som svar har Iran avfyrat drönare och robotar mot amerikanska militära mål i Kuwait och Bahrain, och flyglarm har aktiverats i Qatar. Den uppblossade konflikten i Mellanöstern med USA och Iran går in på sin andra dag. Samtidigt tycks börserna i Asien närmast obekymrade – och i Europa väntas en rekyl uppåt efter onsdagens nedgångar. DI 9 juli 2026, 07:21 https://www.di.se/live/morgonkoll-rekyl-upp-vantas-pa-europaborserna/ Jag finner detta svårt att förstå, eftersom den stora uppgången den senaste tiden har sin grund i marknadens tro att fred är antågande (FOMO). 31 mars Irans president uppges vara beredd att avsluta kriget. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/vandpunkten...