Englund

 Nvidias intäkter är andras kostnader. Grönt veckoavslut på Wall Street Den amerikanska tioåriga marknadsräntan och oljepriserna visade små rörelser. I stället var förhoppningar en stark rapportsäsong som lyfte indexen till nära nya rekordnivåer. https://www.di.se/live/gront-veckoavslut-pa-wall-street/ Kraftig fredagsuppgång räddade veckans tapp Bakom det muntra börshumöret låg bland annat Donald Trumps besked på torsdagen om att han inte kommer att attackera Iran före det amerikanska mellanårsvalet i november. https://www.di.se/live/kraftig-fredagsuppgang-raddade-veckans-tapp/ Magyar besegrade Viktor Orbán i valet, med löfte om att föra in landet i eurosamarbetet.   Målet är att uppfylla kriterierna till 2030, bland annat genom att minska budgetunderskottet till 3 procent av BNP från årets beräknade underskott på 7,5 procent. DI 9 Oktober 2026 https://www.di.se/live/ungerns-vag-till-euron-ska-eliminera-slosaktiga-utgifter/ Hungarians Sweep Away Orban, unlocks $20 billion in E...

  Marine Le Pen, the leader of the hard-Right populist party National Rally.  Tuesday she was miles from the streets. Instead, she was briefing journalists on how, as president, she would cut €140bn from the French budget and halve the country’s colossal debt pile. But Le Pen’s newfound appetite for balancing the budget is not shared by the electorate, who will choose a new president next April.  The “spread” between French and German bond yields to levels that have prompted fears of a wider eurozone crisis. “If France fails, the whole of Europe fails,” says Desmond Lachman, of the American Enterprise Institute.  Some big Japanese holders of French bonds have already headed for the exit. If the exodus can’t be stopped, the ECB may have to start buying French bonds to stem the soaring yields and head off a bloc-wide crisis. “We’re not talking about Greece. We’re talking about a big country that’s got a huge amount of debt. So it means that the ECB is going to have to ...

  The term premium, or the extra payout that investors demand in return for the risks of owning 10-year Treasuries instead of just rolling over short-dated securities for the same amount of time. How exactly to measure it varies. So do the explanations for its moves. What’s not in question is that during the past few weeks it spiked to levels not seen in over a decade and drove the latest leg of the bond selloff that’s sent US Treasury yields to a 24-year high. That term premium is essentially protection against unpredictable turns, ranging from geopolitical shocks to government fiscal crises, that could hit the market before long-term bonds come due. Bloomberg 9 October 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-09/wall-street-sees-an-ominous-sign-in-bond-market-s-latest-selloff

Two decades ago, I discovered the signalling power of credit default swaps. When the price of derivatives rises, this shows that investors are worrying that borrowers will go bust. Back then, one hint of the trouble to come was that CDS prices for mortgage bonds and banks rose — despite the cheer in equity markets. That was a proverbial canary in the coal mine. Is the same thing happening again today? Quite possibly.  This week US equity markets hit record highs amid fresh evidence of US economic strength.  But even as AI hype drives an equity rally, CDS prices for AI-linked borrowers such as Meta, Google and Microsoft have quietly risen, with a particularly marked jump for Oracle. Investors should be asking at least five questions now to assess whether trouble lies ahead. Don’t get me wrong: I am not arguing that these questions portend an immediate equity slump.  Exuberance can last a long time — as we learnt two decades ago.  But the air in the markets is getting ...

  Ålandsbankens aktiestrateg Lars Söderfjell förklarar marknadens förlorade tålamod med räntorna och oljepriserna med ett känt investerarcitat. ”’It doesn’t matter until it does’ I dag torsdag stiger priset på Brent- och WTI-oljan till 104 respektive 91 dollar per fat, i spåren av nya attacker från Houthirebellerna i Jemen och uppgifter om att USA ska eskalera sina attacker mot Iran. ”Än så länge tycker vi att ränteuppgången är hanterlig, men om någonting skulle hända med företagsvinsterna finns inte skyddsnätet där”, säger Lars Söderfjell. DI 8 oktober 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/dubbelsmall-pressar-borsen-skyddsnatet-kan-brista/ Houthis https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/houthis.html Smällar dånar i Saudiarabiens huvudstad Riyad, efter en rad attacker mot flygplatser i landet. DI/TT 8 October 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/8-oktobere-franrike.html 28 augusti. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/28-augusti-google-i-timra-liechtenstein.html

Wall Street stängde på rött – trots dämpad ränta Investerarhumöret överskuggades av uppgifterna om att Open AI:s årliga intäkter visat sig vara cirka 20 miljarder dollar lägre än det belopp som tidigare signalerats. https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-stangde-pa-rott-trots-dampad-ranta/ Maros Sefcovic ska under sitt besök i Kina föra samtal med landets handelsminister Wang Wentao.  På agendan står bland annat hantering av EU:s handelsunderskott med Kina – som beräknas uppgå till över en miljard dollar per dag.  En annan fråga är möjliga begränsningar för EU:s import av kinesiska hybridbilar. DI/TT 8 October 2026 https://www.di.se/live/eu-ohallbart-underskott-i-handeln-med-kina/ Germany Doubles 2026 Growth Outlook  GDP is expected to expand by 1.3% in 2026  and 1.1% in 2027. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-08/germany-doubles-2026-growth-outlook-as-manufacturing-rallies Anfall mot Saudiarabien Smällar dånar i Saudiarabiens huvudstad Riyad, efter en rad a...

  – Folk har börjat förstå att jag har rätt. Det är länge sedan Zitron var i princip ensam om att prata om en AI-bubbla. Idag är det allmänt känt att industrin balanserar på en knivsegg – mellan gigantiska utgifter och i sammanhanget små intäkter. Och att en krasch skulle kunna få förödande konsekvenser. – I början sa de flesta till mig att jag var galen. Att jag hade fel. Men jag har lärt mig att de flesta vet inte vad de pratar om. De är inte ens intresserade av att lära sig. Per Elinder Liljas SvD 2026-10-03 https://www.svd.se/a/pB7E0G/ed-zitron-varnar-for-ai-bubbla-open-ai-och-anthropic-kan-krascha Secretary of State Marco Rubio  In a speech on a hill in front of the Acropolis in Athens, the top US diplomat invoked Renaissance figures and Hellenic icons as he explained that the US was intent on dominance and revival.  Rubio said the West finds itself “at a crossroads” with the next decade set to determine whether it “maintains its place at the head of the world or res...

The French certainly have a way with words.  Many about food, fashion and art have made their way into English, naturally, but a surprising number of financial terms did too. Without them we’d have no arbitrage, entrepreneurs, tranches, financiers or even millionaires A former French finance minister /Former French finance minister (eventually president) Valéry Giscard d’Estaing/   about the benefit America reaps from having the world’s reserve currency.  “le privilège exorbitant”. For many Americans it’s an article of faith that the stock market eventually rises over time, that Uncle Sam’s liabilities are risk-free and that America’s armed forces will never lose a fight for lack of money. Now, federal borrowing is starting to feel unsustainable, U.S. stocks fetch twice the valuation of other developed markets and the Navy is struggling to protect vital sea lanes from a third-rate adversary.  Je ne sais quoi betyder ungefär ”det där lilla extra” – en särski...

  James David Vance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JD_Vance Trots att Vance länge varit skeptisk till USA:s inblandning i krig utomlands har han fått en framträdande roll i fredsförhandlingarna mellan länderna En överenskommelse skulle kräva att Iran faktiskt minskar sin kapacitet att anrika uran och inte bara lovar att göra det längre fram. ”Om ni inte vill ha kärnvapen, varför behöver ni då uran som är anrikat till 60 procent? Och om ni vill visa att ni verkligen inte tänker bygga kärnvapen, ska ni inte producera höganrikat uran. Det är en helt grundläggande fråga”. DI 7 oktober 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/usa-s-iranforvirring-vem-ar-det-som-kor-egentligen/ Attention; the world’s most valuable resource.  The notion now is that at every single moment when you are competing for someone’s attention, you are competing against literally every piece of content ever produced. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and before them, Joe Biden — before the changeover, they were just terrified o...

We’re still some distance from a repeat of the 2010-2012 euro zone crisis. But there is a reason why the European Union has for a decade lurched from one emergency to another, and why every moment of stress — the 2022 loss of Russian gas, the Iran war, France’s overspending — threatens to push it over the brink.  Italy, for one, has managed to cut its fiscal deficit, but its macroeconomic recovery is very sensitive to rising yields on its sovereign debt — and hence its borrowing costs. Italy is actually running a budget surplus and Giorgia Meloni’s government has stayed in power for nearly four years, giving the notoriously unstable republic an unprecedented spell of stability. But her government is still demanding that EU rules are bent to let it spend more. Spain is even more disheartening. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called fresh elections, although he’s trailing badly in the polls. Politicians are unable to tell electorates the truth about the necessary sacrifices, and vot...

Al-Houthi presides over a militant group that’s taken over swathes of Yemen, often brutally suppressing the people under its control.  The Houthis’ reach extends far beyond the country as they disrupt global trade, rattle energy markets and fire missiles at Saudi Arabia, whose allied forces on the ground are leading a coalition that vowed at the weekend to eliminate them. Bloomberg 7 October 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/reclusive-houthi-leader-wreaks-havoc-from-his-yemen-stronghold How the Houthis Triumphed on the Red Sea and Sparked a New War in Yemen In a single night, an Iran-allied militia trounced Saudi-backed forces to take control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast. No one was able, or willing, to stop them. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/06/world/middleeast/yemen-houthis-reconstruct.html Who are the Houthi rebels and why are they attacking Red Sea ships? BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67614911 The US and its allies have been try...

  France: between the bond market and the barricades https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/france-between-bond-market-and.html USA: handelsbalans augusti. Import 400 mrd, export 300 mrd, underskott 100 mrd.  Dollar. I augusti. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/usas-samlade-underskott-i.html Inga problem. Du skall göra som dom i New York. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/inga-problem-du-skall-gora-som-dom-i.html A Top-Heavy Stocks Rally. Förväntningar på extremt vinstrally för USA:s teknikjättar. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/a-top-heavy-stocks-rally.html Tea Party movement. Tea party-rörelsen förstår samhällsekonomi i termer av hushållsekonomi. Experterna skrattar åt denna naivitet. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/tea-party-movement.html JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. Risks from AI “went up 10-fold after Mythos”. Anthropic PBC’s Mythos artificial-intelligence model has dramatically increased global cybersecurity risks. “I’m not going...

High debt levels become dangerous when rising interest rates push up borrowing costs and governments fail to respond.  With little political appetite to rein in its federal deficit and ballooning debt, the United States risks finding itself with few options when the next war, recession, or financial crisis arrives. Kenneth Rogoff Project Syndicate  Oct 1, 2026 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-cannot-keep-putting-off-addressing-its-fiscal-problems-by-kenneth-rogoff-2026-09 Beskyllningen mot Tea party-rörelsen är att den förstår samhällsekonomi i termer av hushållsekonomi.  Experterna skrattar åt denna naivitet.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/staten-kan-bara-ge-vad-den-tar-med.html Tea Party movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement Alltför många oroar sig för statsskulder och statsskuldräntor. Om man har en sedelpress går man inte i konkurs. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/alltfor-manga-oroar-sig-for.html Why the ho...

  USA:s samlade underskott i handelsbalansen uppgick till 105,6 miljarder dollar i augusti, jämfört med ett underskott på 88,6 miljarder dollar föregående månad. 6 oktober 20226 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026 https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-august-2026 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-10-06-2026/card/one-great-chart-u-s-goods-deficit-surges-YfPPOG5YZoHvEgcDZ37W US Trade deficit September https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/3-september.html The Problem Trump Is Seeking to Tackle Is Very Real https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/us-trade-deficit.html

  France: between the bond market and the barricades https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/france-between-bond-mar¨¨ket-a nd.html The 10-year Treasury yield, the most important number in global finance,   has now broken through its high from 2007, when a bond sell-off triggered the Global Financial Crisis.  It’s now the highest since 2002. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/a-top-heavy-stocks-rally.html

Just nu överskuggas allt av förväntningarna på ännu ett extremt vinstrally för USA:s teknikjättar.  I längden är det inte rimligt att långräntor ger en avkastning på 5 procent, som i USA, samtidigt som börsen värderas till över p/e 20. Nvidia har exempelvis bara i augusti och september ökat sitt börsvärde med 12.000 miljarder kronor till närmare 60.000 miljarder kronor. Dragloket på Stockholmsbörsen är framför allt Atlas Copco som på tisdagen för första gången passerade 1.000 miljarder kronor i börsvärde. Ulf Petersson DI 6 oktober 2026 https://www.di.se/analys/kurschock-hotar-borsgiganterna/ The 10-year Treasury yield, the most important number in global finance, has now broken through its high from 2007, when a bond sell-off triggered the Global Financial Crisis.  It’s now the highest since 2002. The Nasdaq-100 also set a landmark Monday, rising 0.9% to top 31,000 for the first time. On the face of it, the big tech companies are proving immune to the rising cost of money. Th...

  The country is being hit by a pre-election debt sell-off. Many fear it could shake the Eurozone. France’s debt has reached €3.5tn, at nearly 120 per cent of GDP, far above the Eurozone average. Servicing costs the state’s single biggest expenditure ahead of education or defence. The additional interest rate that France pays to borrow over ultra-safe German debt has surged to around 1.4 percentage points on 10-year debt. In the worst-case scenario, some think the European Central Bank could be forced to come to the rescue. That could come at the cost of demanding structural reforms, such as slashing pension spending, which the French public has long rejected. Financial Times 6 October 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/9b252b46-a87c-45e7-a09a-45a39ce077b8?syn-25a6b1a6=1 In Europe, the shadows of the 2011-12 crisis are emerging again. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Financial Times 5 October 2026 The writer is a former member of the executive board of the European Central Bank and former chair of...

Overall, as of the second quarter banks’ unrealized losses on securities stood at just under $330 billion, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Banks collectively have added capital in recent years.  As a percentage of banks’ so-called Tier 1 capital, those losses have gone from over 33% in the third quarter of 2022, to around 14% as of the second quarter this year, FDIC data show. Of course, bonds have experienced losses in value since the end of the second quarter as yields have risen.  Yet investors don’t seem reassured by that. The KBW Nasdaq Bank index has slumped almost 9% over the past month Wall Street Journal 5 October 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/bank-stocks-are-haunted-by-the-ghosts-of-2023-a2a64725

  Magdalena vill låta EU köra över oss om utrikespolitiken - QMV - Beslagta de ryska pengarna i Bryssel, inte bara spärra. Qualified majority voting, based on the double-majority rule, is the main method used by the Council of the European Union to adopt EU legislation. Vetorätten i EU håller på att bli historia. Frankrike och Tyskland har långtgående planer. Magdalena Andersson has big plans for Europe. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/magdalena-vill-lata-eu-kora-over-oss-om.html Teknikbolag drev upp USA-börserna Räntan på den amerikanska 10-åringen nådde sin högsta nivå sedan 2002 och handlades till 5,32 procent. Sportpriset på Brentoljan var ned 2,4 procent, men handlades fortsatt över 100 dollar per fat. Samtidigt klättrar aktiemarknaden vidare och skakar av sig oro för stigande räntor, dyrare energi och inflation. https://www.di.se/live/teknikbolag-drev-upp-usa-borserna-intel-mot-strommen/ Marknaden hoppas på svagare krona. Kronan gillar inte när det är höga räntor i ...