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Real federal funds rate in negative territory at -2% to -3% at the end of this year

That’s the catch in all this. 

In the current easing cycle, the Fed first pushed the real federal funds rate below zero in November 2019.

That means a likely -2% to -3% rate in December 2022 would mark a 38-month period of extraordinary monetary accommodation, during which the real federal funds rate averaged -3.1%. 

Stephen S. Roach Project Syndicate 24 January 2022


Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken.

Rolf Englund blog 5 december 2009


Air conditioners units in operation worldwide could jump from nearly 2 billion today to 5.6 billion by 2050


 As global temperatures, populations and incomes rise in countries like India and China, the number of AC units in operation worldwide could jump from nearly 2 billion today to 5.6 billion by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.  

"By 2050, estimates say that just space cooling will account for 30% to 50% of peak electricity [load] in many countries. Today the average is 15%," said Riahi. "So you're going to have grid failures." 

Deutsche Welle 25 January 2022


No weather event affects the power system more than heatwaves.

The biggest impact on electricity demand, by far, is from air conditioners


Nu tror de flesta att Fed stegvis kommer att höja styrräntan till 1 procent, kanske rent av 1,5 procent

Så sent som i oktober trodde finansmarknaderna att Fed bara skulle höja räntan från 0 till 0,25 procent under hela 2022. 

Nu tror de flesta att Fed stegvis kommer att höja styrräntan till 1 procent, kanske rent av 1,5 procent, till och med årets slut.

Carl Johan von Seth DN 27 januari 2022


John Authers What a day.

The Fed chair made no new commitments, but his message was loud and clear enough to drive a massive reversal. 

Powell is admitting that the Fed doesn’t know how quickly it can get inflation under control (it’s not alone in this), and is maintaining maximum discretion for the months ahead. He declined invitations to rule out hiking at every meeting, or raising by more than 25 basis points at a time. 

Here is what happened to the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield, minute-by-minute through the day. The red line marks the FOMC’s announcement at 2 p.m.

The bond market still thinks that the Fed will beat inflation without breaking anything. 

The strength of the reaction to Powell’s press conference was driven in large part by the prior speculation that the market selloff would force him into offering a “dovish olive branch” and walk back some hawkish speculation. 

That he deliberately and conspicuously refused to rule out any of the options that worry the market showed that the “strike price” of the Fed’s “put option” under the stock market (in other words, the index level at which the Fed would feel compelled to ease up) is lower than traders had thought. 

John Authers Bloomberg 27 January 2022


Annika Winsth, chefekonom på Nordea, ger Fed-chefen Jerome Powell ett högt betyg

– Det var ett klokt och bra besked i rätt tonläge, säger hon.

Hon påpekar att Fed-chefen kom med ungefär samma budskap nu som i december. Och förklarat att inflationen ska bekämpas, men i en lugn takt.

– De kommer inte att rusa iväg och det är något som aktiemarknaden ville höra, säger Annika Winsth.

SvD 26 januari 2022



Fed’s Jay Powell refuses to rule out string of aggressive rate rises

Hawkish stance from US central bank chair sparks sharp stock market sell-off

FT 26 January 2022



Jeremy Grantham says ‘Goldilocks’ era of past 25 years is ending

“There’s only a certain amount of cheap oil, cheap nickel, cheap copper, and we are beginning to hit some of those boundaries,” said Grantham, co-founder of Boston asset manager GMO.

“Climate change is coming with heavy floods, serious droughts and higher temperatures -- none of these make farming easier. So, we’re going to live in a world of bottlenecks and shortages and price spikes everywhere.”

Grantham, 83, insists that’s all inevitable because, along with the scarcity of raw materials, baby boomers are retiring, birth rates are declining, emerging markets are maturing and geopolitical tensions are flaring -- all trends decades in the making and almost unstoppable.

Bloomberg 26 January 2022


U.S. market approaches end of ‘superbubble,’ says Jeremy Grantham 

Blooomberg 20 January 2022


S&P 500 companies about $2.4 trillion in cash and short-term securities

Expectation that risky assets will mostly go up seems to have been broken.
Ultra-speculative assets are leading the way down, but robust corporate balance sheets could put a floor under prices.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF
Comparisons to the bursting of the dot-com bubble, which knocked almost 83% off the Nasdaq 100, are inevitable.
The Fed is poised to end its purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds quickly and raise interest rates as soon as March
Fed put is in doubt now. Or maybe what’s being questioned is just how bad the market selloff has to get before the central bank changes course.
 S&P 500 companies had about $2.4 trillion in cash and short-term securities 

The giant companies in the market have plenty to spend on buybacks of their own shares if they fall too much

Michael P. Regan Bloomberg 26 January 2022


December US goods trade deficit unexpectedly expands to $101 billion - $1 trillion in 2021


The value of imports increased to $258.3 billion
Exports advanced to $157.3 billion.

Bloomberg 26 January 2022


US Trade deficit in goods tops $1 trillion in 2021 for first time

For all of 2021, the trade gap in goods rose to $1.08 trillion from $893.5 billion in the prior year. 

The deficit in 2020 had also been a record high.

MarketWatch 26 January 2022


Mark Hulbert 200-day moving average

The U.S. stock market historically has not performed more poorly after dropping below the 200-day moving average than it does at any other time.

Mark Hulbert MarketWatch 25 January 2022


John Authers Stocks in the U.S. look hugely expensive

This leg of the selloff has been led by the largest stocks which had previously proved immune, particularly the internet platform groups still generally known by the FANG moniker.

As I’ve mentioned often, stocks in the U.S. look hugely expensive by any metric that doesn’t take into account historically low interest rates, so it’s logical that stocks will fall as rates rise. 

Those high valuations also mean that there’s potentially a long way to go down. What can we rely on to halt the decline?

Monday and Tuesday showed that there’s still a phalanx of investors ready to “buy the dip” at all times — but in aggregate they haven’t yet been able to stop a substantial drop and now seem to be ranged against “sell the bump” traders. 

John Authers Bloomberg 26 January 2022


Martin Wolf IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update

Far more important than such forecasts are the assumptions on which they rest.

The risks lie on the downside, as the fund also notes. 

As the update to the Global Financial Stability Report adds, financial markets show “stretched valuations” — a nice understatement.

Moreover, the “normal” to which we may return is not the old one. The world has changed.

Martin Wolf FT 25 January 2022



John Hussman The policy error the Fed made by abandoning a systematic policy

“Systematic,” in this context, means a framework where policy tools such as the level of the fed funds rate maintain a reasonably stable and predictable relationship with observable economic data such as inflation, employment, and the “output gap” between real gross domestic product and its estimated full-employment potential. 

In 1993, Stanford economist John Taylor proposed a systematic framework

The Fed has encouraged a decade of yield-seeking speculation, as investors try to avoid being among the holders of $6tn in zero-interest hot potatoes... an all-asset speculative bubble that may now leave investors with little but return-free risk. 

Valuations still stand near record extremes. 

John Hussman FT 26 January 2022


When the time comes to ask the question – “What triggered the crash?” – remember that this is the least important question. A market crash requires nothing more than a shift in investor psychology from careless speculation to even modest risk-aversion.  

Hussman 2021-07-16


Who’s Afraid of Rules-Based Monetary Policy?
John B. Taylor



Shoka Åhrman, sparekonom på pensionsbolaget SPP

Det kan vara klokt att se över sin aktieportfölj och vikta om innehavet, beroende på hur sparandet ser ut, anser Shoka Åhrman, sparekonom på pensionsbolaget SPP

Aktieanalytiker och sparekonomer säger att det finns risk för att börsen kan fortsätta vara skakig under det kommande året. 

SvD 25 januari 2022



Positiv till börsen och den kan mycket väl stiga mer

Shoka Åhrman och Maria Landeborn SvD 11 maj 2021


Canadian homeowners’ gamble could backfire if rates increase more than one percentage point

To hold down the size of their monthly payments as home values continue to rise, record numbers of mortgage applicants are opting to take out loans that offer the lowest initial interest rates. 

The problem with these loans, known as variable-rate mortgages, is that their rates automatically rise along with the country's benchmark borrowing cost.

Canada ranks as the word's second most overheated market

Sverige på tredje plats före Norge och UK.

Bloomberg 24 Januari 2022


A great boomerang rally

During the last two days of last week, there was a clear trading pattern — stocks rose in the morning, and then tumbled into the close as traders took the opportunity to get out. 

Now it was time for the pattern to invert. 

Stocks sold off massively at the opening in Wall Street. European shares closed down heavily for the day, but then the U.S. staged a great boomerang rally, to leave most of the main indexes higher than where they started. 

Some people made a lot of money. Some others, presumably, lost a lot. 

Is it possible this will prove the moment of revulsion that ends another alarum for tech stocks? Yes, it is. But there’s no particular reason to be confident about that. 

The underlying trend of getting out of the most speculative stocks has stayed in place.

John Authers January 25, 2022



Panic-like selling emerges Monday as stock market tumbles



Är detta början på den börskrasch vissa varnat för, eller är det bara ett hack i kurvan?

Efter en ovanligt skakig start på börsåret 2022 kom raset många befarat: på en dag raderades mer än fyra procent av Stockholmsbörsens värde.

I studion: sparekonomen Joakim Bornold. Programledare Carolina Neurath.
SvT 24 januari 2022


På Söderberg & Partners får Joakim Bornold rollen som Sparekonom



Spitfire Mk1 to Mk24




Panic-like selling emerges Monday as stock market tumbles

Dow skids over 1,000 points


MarketWatch Jan. 24, 2022 at 12:28 p.m. ET 



Stocks mount stunning comeback on Monday with Dow closing in the green after earlier 1,000-point loss


One after the other, stock market bears say their calls have finally been vindicated

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson is the latest to claim his warnings were spot on.

If anything, the retreat has further to go, Wilson and his colleagues wrote in a note, borrowing again from Game of Thrones to warn that “winter is here,” with concerns about a slowing economy poised to take over from jitters over Federal Reserve policy as the main force pulling stocks lower.

Bloomberg 24 January 2022


Bitcoin backar

The cryptocurrency market had around $130 billion wiped off its value over the last 24 hours as major digital coins continued their multi-day sell-off.


Bitcoin backar med över 7 procent. 

”Den senaste tiden har det blivit allt mer tydligt att det är en risk-tillgång”, säger Erik Lundkvist, kapitalförvaltningschef på Coel

DI 24 januari 2022, 12:43


EQT:s aktie faller dubbelt så mycket som index

Räknat i börsvärde är mer än 30 miljarder kronor utraderat under måndagen, och hela riskkapitalbolaget värderas nu till drygt 350 miljarder kronor.

En doldismiljardär som hör till Stockholmsbörsens mer erfarna placerare med flera decennier på marknaden i ryggen tar avstamp i börsvärdet när han reflekterar kring måndagsraset i en kommentar DI.

”EQT:s värdering om som mest överstigande 500 miljarder kronor har ju lämnat all fundamental logik bakom sig. Bolaget värderas väsentligt högre än sina internationella 'peers', men framför allt är värderingen i förhållande till intjäning och reella underliggande värden extremt aggressiv”, skriver han i ett mejl

DI 24 januari 2022, 15:17



Totalt har cirka 1.900 miljarder gått upp i rök på Stockholmsbörsen i år

Bland de mer namnkunniga aktierna som har rasat i år märks riskkapitalbolaget EQT -8,20% som har inlett året med ett kursras på 27,5 procent. Därmed har drygt 130 miljarder kronor, motsvarande ett helt Alfa Laval, gått upp i rök.


23 miljarder kronor. Till en liten grupp privatpersoner. På en enda dag. Det blev resultatet när 58 delägare - så kallade “partners” - i det börsnoterade riskkapital­bolaget EQT genomförde en samlad aktieförsäljning i veckan.

Men det som verkligen gjorde affären till veckans händelse på Stockholmsbörsen var sättet som försäljningen genomfördes på.

SvD 11 september 2021


The “correction”

Even after the recent sell-off, markets and technology stocks in particular are still up significantly from two years ago. 

The “correction” is aptly named: valuations of some of these companies got out of hand relative to their underlying earnings.

A minor fall will add some needed discipline to the market, reminding investors that share prices can go both ways

FT Editorial 21 January 2022


The standard definition that a “correction” in an index is any fall from peak to trough of 10% or more. I have no idea where this definition comes from, and I don’t think it’s of any use. 


Cathie Wood’s flagship Ark fund is on the cusp of being overtaken by Warren Buffett in the post-pandemic performance table, reflecting a dramatic shift in fortunes between the two prominent investors.

Ark Invest’s Innovation exchange traded fund — known by its stock market ticker ARKK — smashed most of its competitors in 2020, thanks to Wood’s aggressive bets on high-growth, disruptive companies like carmaker Tesla. 

That attracted billions of dollars from investors, lifting Ark Invest’s overall assets to a peak of $61bn early last year and helped make Wood the face of the bull run. 

Robin Wigglesworth FT 22 January 2022



 Ark Invest founder’s flagship fund is down 27% this year




The stock market could fall by 40% or 50%, but would the Fed ever let this happen?

The models of Grantham, Hussman and others might show that the stock market could fall by 40% or 50%, but would the Fed ever let this happen? 

Ever since Alan Greenspan, there has been an apparent Fed “put option” that cushions the fall.
John Authers Bloomberg 24 January 2022


Where’s That ‘Fed Put’? Dip Buyers Confront the Market’s New Reality
Bloomberg 21 Januiary 2022

Fed still has its foot on the accelerator:

real interest rates after taking into account inflation are extremely negative.

While it is on course to stop its quantitative easing stimulus programme at the end of this quarter, it continues to inject funds into a marketplace sloshing with liquidity.

Mohamed El-Erian FT 24 January 2022



I de här turbulenta tiderna är Maria Landeborns råd till småspararna tydligt: sitt still i båten

SvD 24 januari  11:54


Hon är sparekonom och strateg på Danske Bank

Maria Landeborn spår att ett globalt aktieindex kan stiga med runt 5 procent i år, men att skillnaderna mellan olika sektorer och regioner kan bli stora

SvD 12 januari 2022


– Det är lätt att känna att man vill trycka på säljknappen, men risken är då att man inte riktigt kommer in igen, säger Nordnets sparekonom Frida Bratt.

SvT 24 januari 2022


Det är alldeles för tidigt att prata om en börskrasch. Att värdet av aktier svänger hör faktiskt till det normala

Börsen, enligt det breda indexet OMXSPI, står nu på ungefär samma nivå som den gjorde i början av oktober. Men det står ändå betydligt högre än jämfört med ett år sedan.

Därmed inte sagt att vi inte kan stå för en lång utförslöpa. 

DN 24 januai 2022


Karl Hedberg, aktiechef på Carnegie Private Banking, säger till Di att han är något förvånad över att det är så stora kursrörelser på måndagen.

”Jag tror fortfarande att det kommer vara rätt att köpa rekylen, men jag tro att tajmingen kommer att vara svår. Att gå emot den fallande trenden tror jag kommer att vara rätt även i det här fallet.”

DI 24 januari 2022, 12:11



I fredags gick FAANGST inget vidare

Värt att notera är att techjättarna har en mycket stor vikt i både amerikanska index och globala index och raset drabbar alltså även dig som sitter med en global indexfond i din pension.

Kliver man bak och tittar hur aktierna gått från sina toppnoteringar (dagsavslut) ser det ut som följer:

Cornucopia 23 januari 2022




Ranked by population, the United States is the world’s third largest country,

 ...  behind China and India. But the gap is greater than the ranking implies.

According to Worldometer, as of 2020 China had 1.44 billion people, India 1.38 billion, and the US 331 million.

In other words, by population China is more than four times larger than the US. So is India. 

Together they represent about 36% of humanity, the US only about 4%. 

John Mauldin 21 January 2022


The Markets Tremble as the Fed’s Lifeline Fades

After falling for a fourth day in a row on Friday, the stock market suffered its worst week in nearly two year


What happens next comes from an established playbook. As William McChesney Martin, a former Fed chairman, said in 1955, the central bank finds itself acting as the adult in the room, “who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”

The mood of the markets shifted on Jan. 5, Mr. Yardeni said, when Fed officials released the minutes of their December policymaking meeting,

NYT 21 January 2022


Where’s That ‘Fed Put’?

Dip Buyers Confront the Market’s New Reality

Bloomberg 21 Januiary 2022


The Plunge Protection Team - The Stock Market's Da Vinci Code

March 19, 1988 President Reagan, established the “Working Group on Financial Markets.”



What Is the Plunge Protection Team? 


Svenskar hade vid årsskiftet nästan 2 000 miljarder kronor i globalfonder

... ytterligare 220 miljarder i Nordamerikafonder och nästan 400 miljarder i fonder som både investerar i Sverige och globalt, enligt statistik från Fondbolagens förening.

SvD 21 januari 2022


Fondbolagens förening



Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, shortened to the unlovely acronym Nairu

In antiquity, animal entrails — ideally, the liver of a sacrificed sheep — would be scrutinized for clues of things to come. 

In the postwar U.S., professional economists seeking to predict inflation opted for something a little less sanguinary: the Phillips Curve, named for the economist William Phillips.

In 2001, two economists at the University of California at Los Angeles — Andrew Atkeson and Lee Ohanian — published a paper based on an experiment that compared the predictive prowess of the Phillips Curve to a model that was simple to the point of parody: forecasting next year’s inflation by averaging the previous four quarters’ rates. In other words, next year’s inflation will be the same as the previous year’s. That’s it.

Marie Diron and Benoit Mojon. Their comparative “model” was even simpler: take a central bank’s inflation target and then use that number as a consistent prediction for inflation every single year.

Asking other people what they think will happen. While the professionals have a better track record over the very long term, there is an embarrassingly long stretch of time, 1984 to 2006, where average Americans narrowly edged out the professionals.

Stephen Mihm Bloomberg 21 January 2022



Yes, There Is a Trade-Off Between Inflation and Unemployment 



Why Did Almost Nobody See Inflation Coming? 



The standard definition that a “correction” in an index is any fall from peak to trough of 10% or more. I have no idea where this definition comes from, and I don’t think it’s of any use. 

So why do I have a problem with saying that a “correction” is any fall of 10%? First, it’s arbitrary. 

Second, and more importantly, the word implies that afterward, the market is “correct,” that whatever the problem was has been “corrected.” That is dangerously misleading.

It doesn’t look to me as though we’ve corrected anything yet.

If a correction means correcting for fundamental valuation, there is a lot more to be done

The average Nasdaq 100 stock is now no higher than it was last February. The market has been led by the largest companies, and that the correction has further to go

I draw two tentative conclusions. First, this selloff was above all indiscriminate. It has all the hallmarks of a top-down move to get out of equities. 

Second, the collapse into the close suggests miserable sentiment. Faced with an up market after a couple of tough days, people could have delighted that “buy the dip” was in force, and jumped on the bandwagon. Instead, they decided this was an opportunity to get out. 

John Authers Bloomberg 21 January 2022, 6:51 AM GMT+1


U.S. market approaches end of ‘superbubble,’ says Jeremy Grantham


Fredag 21 januari 2022

Vid stängning hade Dow Jones handlats ned 1,3 procent. Nasdaqs kompositindex hade backat 2,7 procent och  S&P 500 tappat 1,9 procent.

DI fredag 21 januari 2022, 22:02


Stockholmsbörsen föll 2 procent

Sedan årsskiftet har OMXSPI-indexet backat med cirka 9 procent, inklusive fredagens handel. Även storbolagslistan OMXS30 har startat året med nedgång på cirka 5 procent.

Främst beror börsfallet på att centralbankerna, med amerikanska Fed i täten, börjat trappa ned på sina stödköp. Det säger Molly Guggenheimer, strateg på Danske Bank.

SvD 21 januari 2021


Generellt tycker jag att börsuppgången är väldigt välgrundad, säger Molly Guggenheimer, aktiestrateg på Danske Bank SvD/TT 28 juni 2021 


For the first time in the U.S. we have simultaneous bubbles across all major asset classes,” said Grantham, co-founder of investment firm GMO, in a paper Thursday. 

He estimated wealth losses could total $35 trillion in the U.S. should valuations across major asset classes return two-thirds of the way to historical norms.

“One of the main reasons I deplore superbubbles — and resent the Fed and other financial authorities for allowing and facilitating them — is the underrecognized damage that bubbles cause as they deflate,” said Grantham.

MarketWatch 20  January 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET 


 Jeremy Grantham, the famed investor who for decades has been calling market bubbles, said the historic collapse in stocks he predicted a year ago is underway and even intervention by the Federal Reserve can’t prevent an eventual plunge of almost 50%.

Blooomberg 20 January 2022


GameStop to Tesla: investor Jeremy Grantham on 'crazy' markets 


Jim Cramer says the stock market is getting closer to forming a bottom

CNBC 20 January 7:31 PM EST