Englund

Hanna Österberg SvD 9 maj 06.14 USA:s president Donald Trump säger under natten, svensk tid, att han väntar sig ett svar från Iran om USA:s senaste förslag för att få ett slut på kriget ”i kväll”, lokal tid. – Jag ska tydligen få ett brev i kväll, så vi får se hur det går med det, säger han till journalister utanför Vita huset. I Washington har nu klockan passerat midnatt. https://www.svd.se/a/GxM6aJ/israel-och-usa-har-attackerat-iran-explosioner-i-huvudstaden-teheran

  7 maj. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/7-maj.html

Iran has threatened to strike any ship passing through Hormuz without permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy.  The move to set up an authority for the strait underscores Iran’s determination to cement control over what it sees as a spoil of war, despite repeated US and regional warnings.  Dominance of the waterway, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows, would hand the Islamic Republic immense leverage over its neighbors and the global economy. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/07/middleeast/iran-hormuz-rules-warime-gains-intl

Europa sackar efter i konkurrensen med USA och Kina. För att kontinenten ska förbli livskraftig, både ekonomiskt och geopolitiskt, behövs nya konstitutionella ramar. I den här rapporten argumenterar Carl-Vincent Reimers för att dessa bör ha grund i federalismens idéer.  Med förord av Carl Bildt. Timbro 5 maj 2026 https://timbro.se/europa/federalism-for-tillvaxt-sa-gor-vi-europa-till-den-fria-varldens-supermakt/ Europa behöver en tuff kansler På så sätt sällar sig den franskättade katoliken Merz till sin kollega på andra sidan Rhen, i ambitionen att förverkliga ”europeisk suveränitet” på mellanstatlig grund. Carl-Vincent Reimers SvD 15 augusti 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/europa-behover-en-tuff-kansler.html

If identifying a bubble were easy, then we all could do it. And, if we all could do it, then a bubble wouldn’t form in the first place. It’s easy to misinterpret overpricing for part of the market as an indication that everything is a bubble.  Owen Lamont, a portfolio manager at Acadian Asset Management in Boston, has written extensively about market extremes. One definition of a bubble, he jokes, is “when I think the stock market is overpriced and then it doubles,” as in 1999. (That year, the Nasdaq 100 index gained 102%, after returning 85% in 1998.) The last of what Lamont calls “the four horsemen” of a bubble is a tidal wave of stock issuance. https://www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/owenomics/no-we-are-not-in-a-bubble-yet The real danger of bubblespotting is believing you can do it. Jason Zweig Wall Street Journal May 8, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-its-so-hard-to-spot-a-stock-market-bubble-63f40a1c Wall Street is gearing up for a sales push that could ...

AI is like a hurricane-strength weather system making itself felt across the entire economy.  It is distorting the stock market, profits, the speed and composition of economic growth, trade and even our moods—especially about the job market. It is swamping the effects of tariffs and the war with Iran, events that would ordinarily be Category 5 storms in their own right. The boom itself is in uncharted territory. Morgan Stanley now sees capital spending by the five largest AI “hyperscalers” topping $800 billion this year and $1.1 trillion next year. This raises a fascinating question: What if the AI boom went away? Not the technology itself, which is here to stay, but the accompanying frenzy. My back-of-the-envelope estimate is that the AI economy grew 31%, the non-AI economy just 0.1%.  A lot of AI spending goes toward imported equipment such as advanced semiconductors, rather than toward domestic production.  Taiwan’s trade surplus has reached an almost unthinkable 24% o...

Även om han under sin karriär har suttit mitt i en rad kriser, tvekar han inte om sin bedömning av de samlade riskerna i världen just nu. ”Det är den högsta nivån som jag någonsin har sett”, säger han. ”Det är ganska allvarligt.” ”Folk fokuserar alldeles för mycket på vad som kommer att hända 2026”, säger han.  ”Allt som händer i världen – kriget i Ukraina, kriget i Iran, handelskonflikter, för stor offentlig skuld – handlar egentligen om kursen för den fria och demokratiska världen och om vilken värld vi vill ha om 20 eller 30 år. Det är min verkliga oro – inte ekonomin eller aktiemarknaden nästa år.” Om västvärlden, den fria världen och dess ideal ska bestå, krävs det enligt Jamie Dimon en sak. ”Det är avgörande att vi håller ihop – både militärt och ekonomiskt.” Han ser en rad parallella tendenser som pekar mot ökad inflation. ”Om marknaden tror att sannolikheten för recession är cirka 15 procent, så hävdar jag att risken är dubbelt så hög på grund av allt jag nämnt. Det kan var...

 Jamie Dimon, chef för  JP Morgan varnar för ny inflationsvåg Även om han under sin karriär har suttit mitt i en rad kriser, tvekar han inte om sin bedömning av de samlade riskerna i världen just nu. ”Det är den högsta nivån som jag någonsin har sett”, säger han. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/jamie-dimon-chef-for-jp-morgan-varnar.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-07/why-private-credit-is-facing-its-biggest-test-yet-video Förnyad oro i Mellanöstern sänker Asienbörserna inför eftermiddagens amerikanska jobbsiffra. Även Europaterminerna pekar mot en röd öppning. DI 8 maj 2026, 06:39 https://www.di.se/live/morgonkoll-sma-rorelser-i-asien-trots-skakig-vapenvila/ Deppigt slut på börsveckan https://www.di.se/live/deppigt-slut-pa-borsveckan-silex-rusade-vidare/ Bubblespotting is a lot harder than it seems. It’s easy to misinterpret overpricing for part of the market as an indication that everything is a bubble.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/...

Kevin Warsh has been critical of the central bank and promised “regime change.” What should Warsh do to improve how the Fed conducts and implements monetary policy? A Group of Thirty working group that I led released a report today,  The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Framework: More to Do to Buttress Independence, that suggests a way forward. https://group30.org/publications/detail/6170 The report recommends the Fed develop a comprehensive framework for quantitative easing and tightening, including providing clarity about when QE might be appropriate and its objectives. The report suggests a thorough examination of the costs and benefits of shrinking the size of the Fed's balance sheet, including consideration of whether the current "ample" reserves regime should be retained. The report recommends the Fed publish a staff forecast with alternative scenarios at the conclusion of each Federal Open Market Committee meeting to facilitate better understanding of the Fed...

  Finland Is Ready for Russia. Is Anyone Else? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-opinion-finland-is-ready-russia-arctic/?srnd=phx-opinion US Waits for Iran’s Peace Deal Response as Israel Hits Lebanon https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/us-iran-deliberate-peace-deal-with-nuclear-breakthrough-distant Markets care far more about the Strait than Iran’s nuclear program. John Authers boomberg May 7, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-07/oil-and-stocks-depend-on-how-serious-trump-deal-is President Trump’s advisers are worried that Republicans  will pay a political price for the rising fuel costs. Many of those advisers are eager to end the war in hopes that prices  will begin moderating before November’s midterm elections. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/jet-fuel-prices-are-spiking-and-trumps-advisers-are-worried-b0932f3c Demokratins seger och Kris 2,0 Olof Petersson Börsen tyngs – Saab leder nedgångarna 7 maj 2026, 15:57 h...

Private credit, a world of opaque lending without much regulation, is a more than $3 trillion market. It operates outside the traditional banking system and tends to offer higher returns, but also, comes with higher risk. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-06/arm-sales-forecast-fails-to-satisfy-investors-seeking-ai-payoff DoubleLine Capital Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gundlach raised questions about financial advisers who invested individual investors in private credit and semi-liquid funds, suggesting they were motivated by high fees. Gundlach took issue specifically with private credit firms calling their funds “semi-liquid” in nature.  “Half the time it’s liquid. It’s liquid when you don’t want your money, and it’s illiquid when you do want your money.” Asset managers are now questioning the wisdom — or at least, the marketing message — of selling illiquid investments to the masses. “I don’t ...

Polls suggest three of the four nations that make up the UK will be ruled by separatist parties dedicated to the breakup of the union. The breakup of the union of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. The success of nationalist parties, combined with the rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK, could mark a dangerous moment for the United Kingdom and potentially lead to its balkanization. The process has already begun.  Sinn Fein, political wing of the now defunct Irish Republican Army, has been the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly since 2022. In elections this week, the Scottish National Party is looking to extend its majority in the country’s devolved parliament and  Plaid Cymru is hoping to snatch Wales from the UK’s ruling Labour Party.  Both may see a mandate to begin the process of departure. But it’s not at all clear this is what voters want.  On recent visits to big cities in each of the four UK nations I encountered people who wanted to admin...

 A quick deal to reopen the Strait Advantages : Reopening the Strait would lower oil prices and bring the global economy back from the brink. Trump would doubtless claim victory. Disadvantages : By ending its embargo of Iran’s ports and ruling out military action, America would greatly reduce its leverage. Since Iran’s leaders would not concede when facing an embargo and constant air strikes, why would they yield if both pressures were lifted?  Allowing Iran to agree to reopen the Strait would implicitly concede the principle that its regime now controls this vital artery.   Maintain the US embargo on Iranian ports and hold out for a comprehensive deal Advantages : If successful, this approach would allow America not just to reopen the Strait but to settle the nuclear issue and all other outstanding questions. Disadvantages : In the meantime, the Strait would stay closed, with the world economy heading for the brink. The regime might believe that, instead of watching...

A year since taking office, Germany’s chancellor is struggling to fill the role he long dreamed of attaining. Merz's public standing has plummeted, and the Alternative for Germany party is polling ahead of his Christian Democratic-led bloc in several polls. The turmoil is giving rise to speculation about how much longer Merz's chancellorship can last, with some officials questioning his leadership and grasp of policy details. Friedrich Merz took to the podium at the Chancellery in Berlin last week. He faced questions about how much longer his coalition will last. Bloomberg 6 May 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-06/friedrich-merz-is-struggling-to-move-germany-forward-a-year-after-taking-office

US stocks are at yet another record. It’s remarkable how much it’s been driven by momentum, while investors seem impervious to issues of quality — the catch-all term for companies with steady profits and resilient balance sheets. It might be unfair to call this a dash for trash. But nobody seems to care about quality.  This isn’t just an American phenomenon. If we do the same exercise for Bloomberg’s stock universe for the world excluding the US, momentum is far more dominant.  Of late the liquidity factor — buying the stocks with the greatest trading volumes — has been even more impressive: John Authers Bloomberg 6 May 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-06/stocks-rally-momentum-is-trampling-quality-in-market-records Crash of 1929 - It was FOMO plus debt. It’s almost always FOMO plus debt Sorkin’s greatest accomplishment is allowing us to relive precedent by re-creating how the market felt in 1929, week by week, sometimes day by day, to those experienc...

  Trump Seeking Iran Deal https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/trump-seeking-iran-deal.html Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Fed bryter sig äntligen fri från en destruktiv och föråldrad akademisk kult. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/ambrose-evans-pritchard-fed-is-at-last.html Stockholmsbörsen går mot en positiv öppning på onsdagen efter nya besked från USA:s president Donald Trump som ökar fredshoppet i Mellanöstern. En tidig påsk bidrog till ett tydligt försäljningslyft för godistillverkaren Cloetta https://www.di.se/live/fem-saker-att-ha-koll-pa-innan-borsen-oppnar-RIC1A/ Ny fredsförhoppningsyra på börsen Förra gången som börsen rusade på nyheten om framgångsrika fredsförhandlingar varade glädjen bara en dag. Denna gång är uppgifterna från de olika parterna mer samstämmiga, vilket väcker hopp Vid 15.30-tiden, strax efter att USA-börserna öppnat på onsdagen, var Stockholmsbörsen upp hela 2,7 procent för dagen.  Börshaussen utlöstes av uppgifter till internationella me...