Englund

Uppgifter: 60 dagars förlängning av vapenvila Sent på lördagskvällen, svensk tid, meddelade Donald Trump att ett fredsavtal med Iran var ”i stort sett” färdigförhandlat. Enligt uppgifter till den amerikanska sajten Axios ska det handla om en 60 dagars förlängning av vapenvilan, och ett återöppnande av Hormuzsundet.  USA ska också lyfta sin blockad mot iranska hamnar, enligt uppgifterna.  Knäckfrågan om iransk kärnenergi kommer att fortsätta förhandlas under vapenvilan, enligt Axios källa. SvD 24 maj 06.52 https://www.svd.se/a/GxM6aJ/israel-och-usa-har-attackerat-iran-explosioner-i-huvudstaden-teheran 1.  A quick deal to reopen the Strait Advantages: Reopening the Strait would lower oil prices and bring the global economy back from the brink. Trump would doubtless claim victory. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/trump-now-has-three-options-they-are.html

In 405BC, the Spartans under Lysander targeted the narrow passage now known as the Dardanelles, cutting off Athens from its major source of grain. The resulting starvation forced the surrender of an empire. China’s Belt and Road global infrastructure and investment programme “has always been about the US closing off the chokepoints” as Beijing seeks alternative supply lines in case of disruption. https://ig.ft.com/maritime-chokepoints/

A dull acronym for something without which Europe would stop looking like Europe. If the AMOC stops, Europe will experience ice-age like winters. https://euobserver.com/216479/the-ocean-system-no-one-has-heard-of-that-could-destabilise-europe/ Golfströmsystemet Amoc kan vara på väg mot kollaps https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/golfstromsystemet-amoc-kan-vara-pa-vag.html Forskare: ”Sluta larma om Golfströmmen!” https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/forskare-sluta-larma-om-golfstrommen Ai about Greenland ice melting and all that https://www.perplexity.ai/search/cd7b3279-923e-4dc7-b0b7-7ef30ec41ef2

A proposal for Stellantis NV's Maserati unit to outsource production to Huawei Technologies Co. and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp to make electric vehicles is on the table. Giving a legacy European nameplate a Chinese makeover would likely enhance its technical performance, but could diminish the meaningful brand equity that Maserati still enjoys. Luxury Western brands still overwhelmingly manufacture in Europe because production location is tied closely to brand identity and pricing power. Getting value for money is not why people spend $300,000 buying luxury cars.  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-21/maserati-has-no-business-outsourcing-to-china

SVT har inte kvar sändningsrätten till tv-serien ”Downton Abbey”. Men närmaste veckan kan man se två av de tre långfilmer som följde. Maggie Smith åldrades i en roll som gick ut på att godsherrens mor redan vid starten 1912 skulle framstå som uråldrig men ändå stå för de flesta av de riktigt träffande replikerna.  Hon skämtade om att hennes lady levde på övertid, men tackade ja så länge hon orkade. Hon hann inte riktigt uppnå 90 år innan hon gick ur tiden 2024. https://www.epochtimes.se/tv-serien-som-aven-blev-filmsucce

I have often written about one of the few indicators in economics that has earned its reputation over the years, and for good reason. It has preceded virtually every US recession since World War II. I’m talking about the inverted yield curve. The only recession in the modern era that occurred without an inverted yield curve was COVID, and that was an externally imposed shock, not a cyclically generated downturn.  John Mauldin May 22, 2026 https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/past-performance-is-not-indicative-of-future-results Prisnivån Price Level talas det inte mycket om.  De flesta kommenterar om KPI/CPI stigit med 0,2 eller 0,3 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/donald-trump-ar-inte-popular-bland.html

as a condition of its international bailout were “absolutely necessary”, the country’s finance minister has acknowledged. Athens was forced by its troika of international lenders to slash spending and liberalise the economy to access more than €250bn in financial assistance between 2010 and 2018. The European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF were blamed by many Greeks for the hardest years of the debt crisis, when the nation was blighted by mass unemployment and political upheaval. But Greece is now one of only five countries in the EU running a primary budget surplus. Financial Times 21 May 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/3576843a-de5b-484f-a148-6fa8ab1d59ba?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Horst Reichenbach We’re not occupiers  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2011/11/horst-reichenbach.html   Germany is the largest guarantor of the European Central Bank’s credit default insurance, known as the OMT and provides by far the largest stock of “target” overdraft credit to other European c...

Governments and drugmakers spent years building Ebola defenses after the 2014 crisis.  A rare strain now spreading in Congo is exposing their limits. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-05-22/how-years-of-ebola-preparation-left-congo-uganda-unprepared-for-bundibugyo A heavily-mutated Covid variant emerges in southern Africa  November 2021 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/dow-futures-tumble-over-800-points-on.html

Persian Gulf nations and Pakistan  are working to transform a fragile truce in the Iran war into a permanent peace deal, with US President Donald Trump signaling that the conflict may end soon. A lasting peace deal has remained elusive, keeping global energy markets on edge and oil prices elevated, with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia appealing to Trump to allow more time for negotiations. Bloomberg 23 May 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-23/iran-peace-deal-push-intensifies-as-fragile-ceasefire-holds Pakistan’s powerful military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Friday. Washington’s Gulf allies, which have borne the brunt of Tehran’s attacks, fear that a resumption of US-Israeli strikes would cause Iran to retaliate by striking them and exacerbate the worst global energy crisis in decades. Iran’s demands for a deal include the lifting of US sanctions, an end to the war “on all fronts” — a reference to Israeli strikes in Lebano...

  The conversations were prompted by the countries’ fears that any retaliation from Tehran, if hostilities resume, will plunge Gulf economies into chaos, the people said.  In separate calls with Trump, leaders of the three US allies said military action won’t achieve America’s long-standing goals with Iran, the people said, asking not to be named discussing sensitive matters. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Bloomberg 22 May 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-22/uae-joins-saudis-qatar-in-urging-trump-not-to-restart-iran-war

 Den resa till Iran som medlarlandet Pakistans arméchef Asim Munir rapporterats planera är inställd, eller åtminstone uppskjuten Därmed sjunker hoppet om att det ska börja röra på sig igen i Irans indirekta fredssamtal med USA. 22 maj 2026, 07:21 https://www.di.se/nyheter/medlarresa-till-iran-lagd-pa-is/ Asienbörserna stiger – Europa  mot stark start  22 maj 2026, 07:25 https://www.di.se/live/morgonkoll-asienborserna-stiger-europa-mot-stark-start/ Ingen fara. Fattas bara. FOMO. FOMO. FOMO. Rubio says Cuba is threat to US Cuba poses a "national security threat" to the US and the likelihood of a peaceful agreement is "not high", US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said. Rubio said Washington's preference was "a diplomatic solution" but warned that President Donald Trump had the right and obligation to protect his country against any threat. BBC 22 May 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgpzwkn5jko German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is pushing the Eu...

Regeringens beslut att ge 40-miljarders-affären på nya krigsfartyg till franska Naval Group slog ned som en bomb i Wallenbergsfärens högborg på Arsenalsgatan i Stockholm.  In i det sista räknade Saabs huvudägare med att ro kontraktet på fyra nya fregatter i hamn. Den här gången högg man – för första gången i mannaminne – i sten. Vid andra stora försvarsupphandlingar i mångmiljardklassen har Saab alltid kunnat räkna med att den hävdvunna svenska symbiosen mellan staten och kapitalet skulle väga tyngst. Nu tog den borgerliga regeringen ett steg i en annan riktning och fördjupar försvarssamarbetet med Frankrike, i stället för att gå vidare med Babcock i samverkan med Saab.  För att göra det krävdes ett visst mått av politiskt mod. Regeringen ska ha en eloge för att man vågade ta det steget och strunta blankt i industripolitiska argument om sysselsättning och arbetstillfällen i Sverige. För Saab och Wallenbergsfären är beslutet ett dråpslag. Företagets vd Micael Johansson, normalt...

If the goal was to see whether Iran’s regime is ready to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons, by now Mr. Trump has his answer: It isn’t.  The Iranians confirm this with each counteroffer that refuses to dismantle underground enrichment sites or hand over their stockpiles of enriched uranium. “There’s no question in my mind that they’d use [a nuclear bomb],” Mr. Trump said Tuesday, “and I deal with these people. They’re extremely radicalized.”  Given Iran’s past refusals, Mr. Trump added, “I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit.” Such threats have been repeated so often that they now face diminishing returns. Iran doesn’t seem to believe them, and in any case the regime seems prepared to ride out further conflict and fight back by targeting the Gulf allies and commercial shipping. If a good deal isn’t possible, then Mr. Trump will have little choice other than to resume using military force. As Mr. Trump famously said in criticizing ...

Nvidia delivers upbeat outlook, boosts dividend, but the stock falls .  https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/nvidia-earnings-stock-results-nvda-guidance Under gårdagen kom uppgifter om att ett fredsavtal är nära mellan USA och Iran.  USA:s president Donald Trump sa under natten att USA befinner sig i de ”sista stegen” kring Iran, vilket tolkas som ett bekräftande om att förhandlingar är i slutskedet. ”Antingen kommer vi överens, eller så kommer vi att göra saker som är lite stygga. Men förhoppningsvis händer inte det”, sa presidenten under natten. https://www.di.se/live/techyra-i-asien-softbank-rusar-20-procent/ Irans nyinrättade organ för Hormuzsundet hävdar att landet kontrollerar ett vattenområde som sträcker sig in på emiratiskt farvatten.   Uttalandet möts av kritik från grannlandet. DI/TT  21 maj 2026, 12:51 https://www.di.se/nyheter/iran-havdar-kontroll-over-emiratiskt-vatten/   It extends into the territorial waters of Oman and the UAE.  Iran's ...

  För eller emot euron?  En som blivit allt mer övertygad är  Lars Calmfors  som i sin rapport beskriver argumenten. Foto: Anders Wiklund/TT Calmfors: Därför bör Sverige byta kronan mot euro — och det som talar emot. Handel, geopolitik och en svagare krona talar för.  Risken att betala för andra länders skulder och en sämre anpassad räntepolitik talar emot.  Lars Calmfors euroutredning väger argumenten och landar i ett ja. Som ordförande för EMU-utredningen 1996 rekommenderade han att Sverige skulle vänta. Nu menar han att tiden är mogen. DPS 25 april 2026 https://www.dagensps.se/bors-finans/makro/calmfors-darfor-bor-sverige-byta-kronan-mot-euro-och-det-som-talar-emot/ Trots att jag inte ser EMU som någon ekonomisk fördel, ska jag ändå rösta ja - inte på grund av, utan trots, den ekonomiska argumentation som jasidan hittills fört fram. Min egen uppfattning är att de troliga inkomstökningarna inte väger upp den ökade risken för mycket hög arbetslöshet vid en...

Germany's Angela Merkel and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy are among the first laureates of the European Order of Merit.  They and other winners will be awarded the honor at a ceremony in the French city of Strasbourg. Former Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel and members of the rock band U2 are also to be presented with the award. Angela Merkel, Former Federal Chancellor of Germany,  Lech Wałęsa, Leader of Solidarnosc and former President of the Republic of Poland,  Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine,  have been appointed Distinguished Member of the European Order of Merit. A complete list of the laureates can be found here. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/european-order-of-merit The order was introduced last year. Deutsche Welle 19 May 2026 https://www.dw.com/en/top-european-parliament-honor-to-be-awarded-for-first-time/a-77208111 Pour le Mérite, förkortat PlM (franska: för förtjänst), informellt känd som Blå Max (tyska: Blauer Ma...

Borrowing costs have reached critical levels across the G7. They are resetting the price of credit for vast swaths of the global financial system.  The effects are cascading through the mortgage industry and pushing a universe of over-indebted companies towards a refinancing crisis. Stock markets cannot defy this force for long.  Societe Generale says that even if the war ends today, the lagged effects will push oil Brent prices to $125.  “The sequence of tanker transit, discharge, refining, and distribution implies a delay of at least 52 days, meaning end-users do not see relief until late July at best,”  The Iran war has pushed 10-year bond yields in France and Italy to almost 4pc, crossing the danger line where interest costs rise faster than the trend growth rate of nominal GDP.  This is how a vicious budgetary circle begins. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 19 May 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/19/the-oil-shock-has-mushroomed-into-a-larg...

  Martin Wolf: The Gulf crisis may just be starting First came the war. Then came the blockade. Now come the shortages. Those that left before the closure have mostly arrived. From now on, the shipments that did not leave will increasingly be missed. Up to now, shortages have been mostly imaginary. Now they will become real. They must be managed, ultimately by suppressing demand.    This, in a nutshell, is what Nick Butler, formerly group vice-president for strategy and policy development at BP and now at King’s College London, argues in a Substack post entitled “The end of the beginning”.  The markets seem to have persuaded themselves that these looming realities will lead, sooner rather than later, to a stable ceasefire and a reopening of the strait. This might happen. But it is not hard to imagine why it might not. Donald Trump insists he does not care about Americans’ financial situation.  Instead, the “only thing that matters, when I’m talking about Iran, t...

  https://www.di.se/live/sverige-ska-kopa-franska-fregatter-mycket-stor-affar/ Franska chefen för FMV:s motsvarighet trycker på för att Sverige ska välja Frankrike i en historisk försvarsaffär värd över 40 miljarder kronor. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/en-konspirationsteori-familjen.html Kan vara bra att ha. Kanske.

Luftförsvarsfregatt En försvarsaffär värd över 40 miljarder kronor. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/sverige-koper-fyra-luftforsvarsfregatte.html Stockholmsbörsen inleder tisdagen uppåt.  https://www.di.se/live/borsen-oppnar-uppat-hansa-biopharma-rusar/ FOMO fred och öppning i Hormuz President Trump said he had called off military strikes planned for Tuesday in light of what he called positive developments at the negotiating table. But mediators said Iran continues to insist on an end to hostilities, financial relief, reparations for war damage and a role overseeing the strategic Strait of Hormuz waterway while remaining at odds with U.S. demands regarding the closing or long-term suspension of its nuclear program. The U.S. and Israel had been preparing to carry out new attacks on Iran within days, people in the region familiar with the matter said.  Some said strikes could still happen as early as next week. Wall Street Journal 19 May 2026 https://www.wsj.com/world/m...