Englund

Kevin Warsh has been critical of the central bank and promised “regime change.” What should Warsh do to improve how the Fed conducts and implements monetary policy? A Group of Thirty working group that I led released a report today,  The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Framework: More to Do to Buttress Independence, that suggests a way forward. https://group30.org/publications/detail/6170 The report recommends the Fed develop a comprehensive framework for quantitative easing and tightening, including providing clarity about when QE might be appropriate and its objectives. The report suggests a thorough examination of the costs and benefits of shrinking the size of the Fed's balance sheet, including consideration of whether the current "ample" reserves regime should be retained. The report recommends the Fed publish a staff forecast with alternative scenarios at the conclusion of each Federal Open Market Committee meeting to facilitate better understanding of the Fed...

  Finland Is Ready for Russia. Is Anyone Else? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-opinion-finland-is-ready-russia-arctic/?srnd=phx-opinion US Waits for Iran’s Peace Deal Response as Israel Hits Lebanon https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/us-iran-deliberate-peace-deal-with-nuclear-breakthrough-distant Markets care far more about the Strait than Iran’s nuclear program. John Authers boomberg May 7, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-07/oil-and-stocks-depend-on-how-serious-trump-deal-is President Trump’s advisers are worried that Republicans  will pay a political price for the rising fuel costs. Many of those advisers are eager to end the war in hopes that prices  will begin moderating before November’s midterm elections. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/jet-fuel-prices-are-spiking-and-trumps-advisers-are-worried-b0932f3c Demokratins seger och Kris 2,0 Olof Petersson Börsen tyngs – Saab leder nedgångarna 7 maj 2026, 15:57 h...

Private credit, a world of opaque lending without much regulation, is a more than $3 trillion market. It operates outside the traditional banking system and tends to offer higher returns, but also, comes with higher risk. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-06/arm-sales-forecast-fails-to-satisfy-investors-seeking-ai-payoff DoubleLine Capital Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gundlach raised questions about financial advisers who invested individual investors in private credit and semi-liquid funds, suggesting they were motivated by high fees. Gundlach took issue specifically with private credit firms calling their funds “semi-liquid” in nature.  “Half the time it’s liquid. It’s liquid when you don’t want your money, and it’s illiquid when you do want your money.” Asset managers are now questioning the wisdom — or at least, the marketing message — of selling illiquid investments to the masses. “I don’t ...

Polls suggest three of the four nations that make up the UK will be ruled by separatist parties dedicated to the breakup of the union. The breakup of the union of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. The success of nationalist parties, combined with the rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK, could mark a dangerous moment for the United Kingdom and potentially lead to its balkanization. The process has already begun.  Sinn Fein, political wing of the now defunct Irish Republican Army, has been the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly since 2022. In elections this week, the Scottish National Party is looking to extend its majority in the country’s devolved parliament and  Plaid Cymru is hoping to snatch Wales from the UK’s ruling Labour Party.  Both may see a mandate to begin the process of departure. But it’s not at all clear this is what voters want.  On recent visits to big cities in each of the four UK nations I encountered people who wanted to admin...

 A quick deal to reopen the Strait Advantages : Reopening the Strait would lower oil prices and bring the global economy back from the brink. Trump would doubtless claim victory. Disadvantages : By ending its embargo of Iran’s ports and ruling out military action, America would greatly reduce its leverage. Since Iran’s leaders would not concede when facing an embargo and constant air strikes, why would they yield if both pressures were lifted?  Allowing Iran to agree to reopen the Strait would implicitly concede the principle that its regime now controls this vital artery.   Maintain the US embargo on Iranian ports and hold out for a comprehensive deal Advantages : If successful, this approach would allow America not just to reopen the Strait but to settle the nuclear issue and all other outstanding questions. Disadvantages : In the meantime, the Strait would stay closed, with the world economy heading for the brink. The regime might believe that, instead of watching...

A year since taking office, Germany’s chancellor is struggling to fill the role he long dreamed of attaining. Merz's public standing has plummeted, and the Alternative for Germany party is polling ahead of his Christian Democratic-led bloc in several polls. The turmoil is giving rise to speculation about how much longer Merz's chancellorship can last, with some officials questioning his leadership and grasp of policy details. Friedrich Merz took to the podium at the Chancellery in Berlin last week. He faced questions about how much longer his coalition will last. Bloomberg 6 May 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-06/friedrich-merz-is-struggling-to-move-germany-forward-a-year-after-taking-office

US stocks are at yet another record. It’s remarkable how much it’s been driven by momentum, while investors seem impervious to issues of quality — the catch-all term for companies with steady profits and resilient balance sheets. It might be unfair to call this a dash for trash. But nobody seems to care about quality.  This isn’t just an American phenomenon. If we do the same exercise for Bloomberg’s stock universe for the world excluding the US, momentum is far more dominant.  Of late the liquidity factor — buying the stocks with the greatest trading volumes — has been even more impressive: John Authers Bloomberg 6 May 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-06/stocks-rally-momentum-is-trampling-quality-in-market-records Crash of 1929 - It was FOMO plus debt. It’s almost always FOMO plus debt Sorkin’s greatest accomplishment is allowing us to relive precedent by re-creating how the market felt in 1929, week by week, sometimes day by day, to those experienc...

  Trump Seeking Iran Deal https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/trump-seeking-iran-deal.html Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Fed bryter sig äntligen fri från en destruktiv och föråldrad akademisk kult. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/ambrose-evans-pritchard-fed-is-at-last.html Stockholmsbörsen går mot en positiv öppning på onsdagen efter nya besked från USA:s president Donald Trump som ökar fredshoppet i Mellanöstern. En tidig påsk bidrog till ett tydligt försäljningslyft för godistillverkaren Cloetta https://www.di.se/live/fem-saker-att-ha-koll-pa-innan-borsen-oppnar-RIC1A/ Ny fredsförhoppningsyra på börsen Förra gången som börsen rusade på nyheten om framgångsrika fredsförhandlingar varade glädjen bara en dag. Denna gång är uppgifterna från de olika parterna mer samstämmiga, vilket väcker hopp Vid 15.30-tiden, strax efter att USA-börserna öppnat på onsdagen, var Stockholmsbörsen upp hela 2,7 procent för dagen.  Börshaussen utlöstes av uppgifter till internationella me...

 “Again? Didn’t we just have this debate?” This is how the opening chapter of a collection of essays published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research , on “The New Global Imbalances” , starts.  Yes, we did. We did so in the 1980s, in the 2000s and now, once again, in the 2020s. Once roughly every 20 years, it appears, the issue comes to the fore. The view of many economists today is that if a crisis is going to strike, it is likely to be triggered in the US. So, how similar are today’s conditions to those of two decades ago? What might go wrong? What should be done? How might today’s situation end? Martin Wolf Financial Times 6 May 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/72ab51ed-8dcc-46c5-8457-6944d98bf280?syn-25a6b1a6=1 US trade deficit - In March - $60 billion https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/us-trade-deficit-in-march-60-billion.html America’s investment position with the rest of the world Is the world running away from American assets? Gillian Tett 20 February 2026 ht...

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Fed bryter sig äntligen fri från en destruktiv och föråldrad akademisk kult. Man skulle kunna hävda – och några modiga kättare vågar viska sådana tankar – att centralbankernas rationella svar på den recessionschock som kommer från Gulfen är antingen att hålla en stadig hand eller till och med att sänka räntorna för att dämpa slaget. Men Bank of England och ECB följer den nykeynesianska ledstjärnan för inflationsförväntningar, den ledstjärna som har styrt västerländska centralbanker i årtionden och formar tänkandet vid akademins doktorandfabriker med knapp tolerans för oliktänkande. Bank of England sa att den kan höja räntorna sex gånger om oljepriset stiger till 120 dollar och förblir högt resten av året. Ska vi anta, helt absurt, att den kan höja räntorna tolv gånger om råoljan når 180 dollar? Att bara tala om att stapla Pelion på Ossa på detta sätt är att kyla ner investeringarna och döda återhämtningen på bostadsmarknaden. Pelion och Ossa är två berg i Thess...

President Donald Trump said he would pause "Project Freedom" to see if the US can reach an agreement with Iran to end the war. Trump cited "Great Progress" toward "a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran" and said the decision was made at the request of Pakistan and other countries. The US blockade of ships transiting to and from Iranian ports would "remain in full force and effect" despite the pause in "Project Freedom". President Donald Trump said he would pause an effort to help stranded ships exit the Strait of Hormuz to see if the US can reach an agreement with Iran to end the war. “Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” Bloomberg 6 May 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/trump-says-he-will-pause-project-freedom-for-short-period Amerikanska presidenter får ...

Vi, Forska! Sverige och medlemmarna i ”Agenda för hälsa och välstånd”, representerar akademi, näringsliv, vård, professioner, civilsamhälle, regioner och myndigheter.  I en ny rapport som vi presenterar den 7 maj i Sveriges riksdag beskriver vi utmaningar, konsekvenser och hur vi själva agerar för att hantera den nya verkligheten.  https://www.forskasverige.se/wp-content/uploads/2026-Lystring-Om-nya-utmaningar-som-hotar-medicinsk-forskning-och-utveckling-for-kvalitetsdriven-vard-och.pdf Vår samlade bild är att omvärldsläget försämrat förutsättningarna på flera avgörande områden.  Under årets valrörelse uppmanar vi partierna att avstå snabba och förenklade lösningar.  Dagens utmaningar kräve långsiktiga prioriteringar och åtgärder på systemnivå. Bland annat Anna Nilsson Vindefjärd, generalsekreterare Forska! Sverige, och Tobias Alfvén, professor på Karolinska institutet och ordförande för ”Agenda för hälsa och välstånd”. DI Debatt 5 maj 2026 https://www.di.se/debatt/s...

“Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters at the White House uesday. “We achieved the objectives of that operation.” Portraying the war as concluded also allows the administration to skirt questions about the legality of the conflict.  The War Powers Act requires him to wind down a conflict in 60 days unless authorized by Congress. Trump passed that deadline about a week ago. Bloomberg 5 May 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/us-says-offensive-phase-of-iran-war-over-as-ship-hit-in-strait Ökad tro på fred gav nya indexrekord i USA https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/5-maj-oil-price-solenergi.html

Mexico City, 22 million residents, is sinking at such an alarming rate that it’s visible from the space. Imagery from a powerful NASA radar system is revealing subsidence rates of more than 0.5 inches a month — making the city one of the planet’s fasting-sinking capitals. One of the world’s biggest cities, stretches out across a high-altitude lake and sits atop an ancient aquifer, which provides around 60% of drinking water for the city’s 22 million residents. Over the years, this aquifer has been so over-pumped that it’s caused the land above it to subside. Over-extraction has also contributed to a chronic water crisis that has left the Mexico City facing a potential day zero, where taps run dry. CNN 5 May 2026 https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/05/climate/mexico-city-sinking-nasa-aquifer-water RE: Jag säger som Carl Bildt. Inte bra. Houston has a problem; It is sinking https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/houston-has-problem-it-is-sinking.html Jakarta, the fastest-sinking megacity ...