Englund

Yen Hits 40-Year Low The BOJ lifted its benchmark interest rate on June 16 to 1%, the highest since 1995. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/japan.html Tre av landets tyngsta strateger tror att uppgången kan fortsätta https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/tre-av-landets-tyngsta-strateger-tror.html Vandenberg and the Berlin Airlift https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/vandenberg-and-berlin-airlift.html Iran Is Winning the Battle of Hormuz Tehran is using force to gain control over traffic through the Strait . The Editorial Board Wall Street Journal 28 June 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/8-april-vapenvila.html Who Cares? Breda uppgångar på Wall Street – Space X i täten Fem av sju aktier inom ”Magnificent Seven” uppåt. Meta Platforms, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla och Apple steg 1,3–8,5 procent.  Microsoft och Apple var ned 1,2 procent respektive 0,7 procent. https://www.di.se/live/breda-uppgangar-pa-wall-street-space-x-i-taten/ Investerare tycks välj...

  ”Vi ser att molnen skingras”, säger Nordeas chefsstrateg Marie Giertz. ”I år handlar det om vinsttillväxt – inte värdering.” säger Molly Guggenheimer. DI 28 juni 2026, 18:13 https://www.di.se/nyheter/strategerna-sa-gar-borsen-under-andra-halvaret/ En AI-bubbla som spricker, inflation i kölvattnet av Irankriget och dåliga statsfinanser är de största hoten just nu, varnar Bank for International Settlements (BIS) i en årsrapport. DI/TT 28 juni 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2011/06/bis-has-warned-that-low-interest-rates.html AI ‘exuberance’ risks ending in lengthy investment bust, BIS warns https://www.ft.com/content/e81ce414-e4bd-4e8c-bac7-94f7bf17def4?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Adam Tooze 28 June 2026 https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-1146-the-dollars-resilience This 10% decline looks like a modest currency realignment rather than the onset of a sharper decline that took place in the 1980’s (after the Plaza Accord to deliberately weaken the dollar), or the decline in the early 2000’s after the launch of the Euro. Source: Cembalest in JPM https://assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/jpm-pb-aem/global/en/documents/eotm/semiquincententacles.pdf A ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’; like Plaza Accord, followed by Louvre Accord https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/a-mar-lago-accord-like-plaza-accord.html Weakening the dollar is a good idea https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/weakening-dollar-is-good-idea.html Konflikter om hur man ska justera externa obalanser återkommit ungefär vartannat decennium sedan 1980-talet.  Varför är hanteringen av globala obalanser i betalningsbalansen både så svår och så viktig?   Det korta svaret är att de ligger i...

  Despite the Trump mayhem the dollar has been surprisingly resilient https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/despite-trump-mayhem-dollar-has-been.html China Shock 2.0 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-emerging-china-shock-20-ambrose.html Xi, Trump och Putin https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/trump-ar-inte-klok.html China, once a glutton for goods made in Germany, has turned into a mercantilist superpower. It produces many of the same things at a fraction of the price and often with equivalent—if not better—quality.  In 2003, the government of then-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder took an ax to unemployment benefits, gave employers more say in setting wages and lowered taxes. German GDP growth has underperformed that of the eurozone since 2019 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/german-chancellor-friedrich-merz-mgga.html Trycket på Moderaterna att hitta ett anslag som kan bära partiet i valrörelsen ökar, Fredrik Johansson, Simona Mohamsson https://englund...

 Trycket på Moderaterna att hitta ett anslag som kan bära partiet i valrörelsen och lägga grunden för en andra mandatperiod ökar. Simona Mohamsson klev upp på Almedalsscenen med det strålande humör som blivit hennes signum.  Det är bra att Liberalerna driver frågan om halverad statlig inkomstskatt. Målet borde vara att fullt ut avskaffa denna utbildningsskatt. En reform som över tid i hög grad skulle vara självfinansierad  Trycket på Moderaterna att hitta ett anslag som kan bära partiet i valrörelsen och lägga grunden för en andra mandatperiod ökar Fredrik Johansson SvD 27 juni 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/zO6X9r/ulf-kristerssons-valkamp-mot-klockan  Fredrik Johansson, konsult hos Hallvarsson & Halvarsson https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/euromotstandet-fortsatter-vaxa-hogsta.html Ingen tror på Ulf – inte ens hans egna Trötta och uppgivna moderater.  Som himlar med ögonen, som undrar om statsministern inte kan skaffa sig en annan pr-konsult än sin fru. ...

  Omani officials said they will always abide by international maritime law, but added there could be fees for services related to de-polluting the strait or helping ships navigate it. The US, Europe and Oman's Gulf Arab neighbors are increasingly concerned that Oman will set up a tolling or fee system with Iran for the Strait of Hormuz. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/oman-tells-allies-ships-going-through-hormuz-may-have-to-pay

They worry the crackdown “is just the tip of the iceberg, and that more restrictive policies or enforcement concerning cross-border capital flows could be coming,” At stake is hundreds of billions of dollars of mainland wealth that has bolstered everything from luxury spending and real estate to the stock market. Bloomberg 23 June 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-06-23/china-s-offshore-capital-outflow-crackdown-hits-hong-kong-wealth-boom Cayman Islands. A Sunny Place for a Shady Online Business https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-sunny-place-for-shady-online-business.html Hong Kong Overtakes Switzerland as Top Offshore Wealth Hub https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/mbaer-merchant-bank-liquidation-us.html

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/trumps-tidigare-sakerhetsradgivare-erkanner-brott Det gör inte Kristerssons tidigare säkerhetsrådgivare  – Då skulle de haft en röd stämpel på sig, säger Landerholm i förhör. I förhören med Petra Lärke säger hon att ett ”H” i blyerts är praxis för att signalera att innehållet bedömts vara säkerhetsklassat och ska läggas i ett säkerhetsskåp eller förstöras. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/rattegangen-mot-henrik-landerholm.html  Petra Lärke ny ambassadör i Moldavien https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/henrik-landerholm-atalades-for.html Sveriges ambassad Chisinau, Moldavien https://www.swedenabroad.se/sv/utlandsmyndigheter/moldavien-chisinau/ostliga-partnerskapet/

  Oman Tells Allies Ships Going Through Hormuz May Have to Pay https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/oman-tells-allies-ships-going-through.html Indexen hoppade mellan plus och minus. Till slut stängde de amerikanska börserna på rött. AI-bolagen fortsatte att pressas – Micron rasade 6,7 procent och Qualcomm 7,6 procent. Sandisk föll 10,5 procent. https://www.di.se/live/svangig-handelsdag-pa-wall-street/ US Strikes Iran In Response to Strait of Hormuz Ship Attack US Central Command said that American aircraft on Friday hit Iranian missile and drone storage sites as well as coastal radar installations, calling it a “powerful response to yesterday’s attack.” Bloomberg 26 June 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/us-strikes-iran-in-response-to-ship-attack-in-strait-of-hormuz Stockholmsbörsen avslutade fredagshandeln på minus efter förnyad AI-oro. Verkstadsjättarna vände till minus och Mildef steg på nytt ramavtal med FMV. DI 26 juni 2026, 18:20 https://www.di.se/l...

The UK has had six prime ministers in the past 10 years and is about to anoint a seventh without scrutiny, with each premiership ending in humiliation. Keir Starmer entering 10 Downing Street as the new  Labour Prime Minister 5th July 2024 The country is pioneering a new form of rule called "government by emotional spasm", where politicians are fixated on and then quickly discarded in favor of new ones. This system is alarming because it is incompatible with good government, requiring consistent policies and effective rule, but instead leads to short-lived enthusiasm followed by long-term disappointment and disintegration.  Brexit bears some of the blame for this. It was the ultimate emotional spasm — a revolt against the status quo in the name of national identity and giving the establishment a kicking.  Adrian Wooldridge Bloomberg June 25, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-25/starmer-burnham-britain-is-a-victim-of-government-by-emotional-spasm ...

År 1911 anländer Harald Hjalmarsson till Persien som ledare för den grupp svenska militärer som accepterat ett erbjudande från landets regering om att träda i persisk tjänst.  De ska bygga upp en polisstyrka – ett gendarmeri – med ansvar för att upprätthålla lag och ordning. 1915 kallades de svenska officerarna hem av sin regering, som inte ville att landets neutralitet skulle riskeras efter det att första världskriget brutit ut året innan.  Harald Hjalmarssons son Jarl  blev ledare för det svenska Högerpartiet. Boris Benulic Epoch Times 25 juni 2026 https://www.epochtimes.se/svenska-militarer-och-det-moderna-iran

Nasdaq stängde på rött för fjärde handelsdagen i rad med alla Mag 7-bolag på minus.  Micron rapportlyfte 15 procent medan Microsoft och Apple föll efter nya prishöjningar. https://www.di.se/live/nasdaq-fortsatte-nedat-micron-rapportlyfte/ The UK has had six prime ministers in the past 10 years   https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/the-uk-has-had-six-prime-ministers-in.html Another day of record-breaking heat https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/25/climate/europe-heat-france-uk-records Versailles is an inauspicious /olycksbådande, illavarslande/  venue to launch peace talk How Iran-US Talks Can Avoid Versailles Syndrome Lionel Laurent Bloomberg June 25, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-25/how-iran-us-talks-can-avoid-versailles-syndrome Spegelsalen i Versailles den 18 januari 1871, när Vilhelm I utropas till tysk kejsare efter segern i fransk-tyska kriget. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/spegelsalen-i-versailles-den-18-januari.html Stockhol...

Riksbankschefen Erik Thedéen ser en tendens att politikerna tummar på det finanspolitiska ramverket. Något som oroar honom. – Vi ser en rad exempel på länder med höga statsskulder som får stora problem, vi är långt ifrån att hamna där, men det gäller att varna i tid. – Nu lånar vi mer än 2 procent av BNP i år och nästa år, det är ganska mycket pengar. Gör man det många år i rad och sedan kanske får en ekonomisk nedgång, då är man i ett dåligt läge. DN/TT 24 juni 2026 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/riksbankschefen-oroad-maste-varna-i-tid/ Statens underskott är ditt överskott https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/statens-underskott-ar-ditt-overskott.html Historien om det finanspolitiska ramverket https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/historien-om-det-finanspolitiska.html Sex av åtta partier överens om att slopa överskottsmålet https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/sex-av-atta-partier-overens-om-att.html Why the household budget myth is dangerous economics https://englundmacro.blog...

Micron is America’s hottest stock, up 762% in a year and worth more than a trillion dollars.  That’s after the stock fell 13% on Tuesday amid a selloff in AI-related companies.  Spencer Jakab Wall Street Journal June 24, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/mag-seven-to-lag-seven-when-one-decision-stocks-stumble-e20f3103   I watch streaming market news regularly and have noticed how shares can be Leading or Lagging.  That is easy to understand when the Market is up. Some shares are leading the pack. Others are lagging. But when the Market is down it is a bit confusing. The shares that are leading the pack down are still called Lagging. When the Bear market comes, as it will, sometime, will then the shares leading the pack down still be called Lagging, or perhaps then they are Leading? 

Double, Double Toil and Bubble Trouble So is this the moment the bubble bursts? Probably not, but it’s a mighty interesting juncture. The spark that lit the flame appears to have come from Korea. SK Hynix Inc. — another freshly minted trillion-dollar chipmaker — had nothing significant to announce. What market people call the technicals — the waves of mass psychology that show up in charts, and which plainly show that we reached the point of over-excitement a while ago. The risk is that trading activity could feed on itself. People have started holding leveraged exchange-traded funds that hold only one or two companies, and they’re very popular.  Offers to double each day’s returns, positive or negative. Good news: So far, this isn’t even a correction. Worse news: That leaves much space for over-levered investors to suffer losses that they cannot afford. John Authers June 24, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-06-24/stocks-selloff-the-bubble-probably-isn-...

The US was the victor of the 20th century. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, it not only possessed unmatched political and economic power, but embodied admired values of constitutional government and freedom.  This did not last. By the end of the first world war, the US was the master of Europe. Unfortunately, it supported a peace that its subsequent withdrawal made unenforceable.  Its abdication, together with the domestic political upheavals, the inflations of the 1920s and the mass unemployment of the Depression, led to the second world war. European empires disappeared and a social democratic consensus emerged. Laissez-faire had gone. Managed capitalism was the new order.  Deng Xiaoping chose “reform and opening up”. Another superpower emerged. Other upheavals include financial crises and mass migration. In the US, the administration is corrupt, incompetent and, most important, hostile to the norms and values that animated the founding fathers.  The ...