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DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is backing away from the artificial-intelligence trade to avoid concentration risk in AI stocks. Gundlach cut his recommended equity allocation to 30% from 40%, suggesting putting those funds into a single Fortune 500 equal-weighted index. Gundlach warned that fallout and losers in the AI race will lead to the next very significant drawdown in risk assets. MarketWatch 17 September 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-just-want-out-why-jeffrey-gundlach-is-moving-his-money-as-far-from-ai-as-possible-and-what-hes-doing-instead-54281010 DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach raised a red flag on the massive buying frenzy among retail investors this year, calling it “downright terrifying.” “This is a terrible sign for the condition of the market for anybody who’s experienced a significant number of cycles, which I’ve definitely experienced,” Gundlach said. The coronavirus rout brought a copious amount of new accounts to online brokers this year a...

Many were unconvinced a hike was necessary, and expected Warsh to draw the sting by hinting this would be “one and done,” not the start of a hiking cycle. He didn’t do that. By the close, markets were convinced that more hikes would come, and that Warsh was happy about it.  Warsh framed the hike as part of a “discipline” and “the removal of some accommodation” — implying more to come.  Warsh and the FOMC all presented the economy as stronger than they had thought — classic conditions for more tightening. In the longer term, this moment could yet seem more significant. It’s a big step away from  the “new normal”  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-30/el-erian-says-the-u-s-alone-has-exited-the-new-normal conditions that followed the Global Financial Crisis,  and implies the destination is not the pre-crisis “old normal” driven by globalization and favorable demographics.  Bitcoin funds have attracted a cumulative $55 billion since the launch over...

Jacob Coxon, 27 The Anonymous Math Geek Who Quit Anthropic—and Became the Face of AI Safety King Charles Calls on Nvidia, OpenAI Chiefs to Control AI Britain’s monarch plans to ask some of the most critical figures in artificial intelligence for reassurances the technologists can keep their inventions under control. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/jacob-coxon-27-face-of-ai-safety.html   Stockholmsbörsen inleder uppåt på bred front, i linje med ledande Europabörser. Bland dragloken finns Ericsson och Saab, upp 1,7 respektive 1,2 procent.  Marknaden verkar ha skakat av sig det hökaktiga tonläget i räntebeskedet från USA:s centralbank i onsdags och i stället ha tagit fasta på att beskedet stärker tilltron till bankens inflationsmål. https://www.dn.se/direkt/2026-09-17/borsen-fortsatter-uppat-pa-bred-front/ Tydlig nedgång i oljepriset – börsuppgången tilltar Samtidigt blir stämningen på Stockholmsbörsen allt muntrare. DI 17 september 2026, 14:42 https://www.di.se/live/ty...

  Jacob Coxon, 27 The Anonymous Math Geek Who Quit Anthropic—and Became the Face of AI Safety. Long-simmering worries about the technology’s potential dangers have exploded into global consciousness since Jacob Coxon’s dire warning. Wall Street Journal 16 september 2026 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/jacob-coxon-quit-anthropic-ai-safety-3f4e877c OpenAI shared several undisclosed incidents of its AI models misbehaving and unveiled a new framework for tracking and disclosing such occurrences going forward. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-16/openai-reports-new-ai-safety-incidents-sets-disclosure-process While politicians debate, the Ai-models will evolve. Another top scientist at the firm put the probability of extinction at more than 10%. Americans eight in ten say they support regulation, even if it slows down innovation.  The trickier question is what that regulation should be. The Economist 17 September 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/18-september-...

Det är lätt både för politiker och journalister att springa åt ett och samma håll i enlighet med det rådande paradigmet.  Detta som vetenskapen brukar definiera som den samling värderingar som i ett givet ögonblick anses grundläggande av en tongivande majoritet. Tills det plötsligt inte längre är det, utan motsatsen börjar gälla. En åsiktskorridor byts mot en annan.  Minnet är kort och de längre perspektiven glöms lätt bort eller förträngs. En snabbrepetition: i förhållande till folkmängden tog Sverige under några decennier emot mångdubbelt fler invandrare per capita än alla andra västländer (undantaget några små skatteparadis).  Bild: Johan Nilsson / TT Detta pågick länge men accelererade framför allt under åren 2005 till 2015.  Då anlände under tio år mer än en miljon utrikes födda.  Uppåt en fjärdedel av de som bor i Sverige har inte svenska som modersmål och ibland inte heller som vardagsspråk.  I Stockholm är 27 procent utrikes födda, i Göteborg 30 pro...

State of the Union (SOTEU) 2026 The State of the Union (SOTEU) address is an annual speech by the President of the European Commission to the European Parliament, setting the priorities for the Union for the year ahead. In this world, Europe has chosen to forge its own path. And a stronger, independent Europe is now emerging. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/state-union_en State of The Union Rolf Englund, Internet 20/1 2003 https://www.internetional.se/stateoftheunion.htm Visst förstår vi EMU-motståndare att det behövs en politisk union, ett Europas Förenta Stater, om en gemensam valuta skall ha en chans att överleva. Men vi vill inte ha ett Europas Förenta Stater, i vart fall inte utan att Europas stater redan har blivit mer förenade än vad de är i dag och framförallt inte innan de europeiska folken har givit sina ledare ett mycket klart mandat att övergå från nationalstater till en union. Att uppge rikets suveränitet är en stor fråga. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com...

A perfect storm of wars in Iran and Ukraine, extreme weather and the AI bubble threatens disaster. The Bloomberg commodity index has risen 48pc this year, accelerating in pace and spreading in breadth from energy to industrial metals and grains.  The futures markets are no longer pricing in a quick return to normal, as they were in those first insouciant weeks of the Iran war, when traders still believed in the all-conquering might of the US navy.  Brent futures contracts are over $90 a barrel all the way out to the spring of 2027. The first two horsemen of this “apocalypse” – conquest, war, famine and death in the Book of Revelation – are the twin wars in Iran and Ukraine. The headline price of oil drastically understates the gravity of what is happening. The stress has switched to diesel, petrol and jet fuel, the products that we consume and that matter for inflation.  The diesel “crack spread” in New York has quadrupled to levels never seen before, tantamount to oil at...

  Räntefrossa på Wall Street Samtliga ledande index ändrade kulör från grönt till rött efter beskedet. https://www.di.se/live/rantefrossa-pa-wall-street-storbanken-ned/ Indexes Drop, 10-Year Yield Moves Back Above 5% After Warsh Says ‘Inflation Is Too High’ After Fed Raises Interest Rates https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-09162026-12123817 Asked whether he thinks monetary policy is weighing on economic activity following the hike, Warsh said that he “found it difficult to describe financial conditions as restrictive” and that most of his colleagues at the Fed agree. Warsh said that raising rates by 0.25 percentage point had only “removed a dose of accommodation,” suggesting that officials might want to see more restrictive financial conditions, i.e. a less frothy stock market and higher bond yields. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-meeting-warsh-interest-rate-09-16-2026/card/fed-s-warsh-says-interest-rates-aren-t-holding-economy-back-nXqzzqNk...

Anton Jäger New York Times 15 September 2026 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/opinion/europe-immigration-ceuta-far-right.html A Brief 700-Year History of Overtourism Europe is embracing industrial decline to become the world’s museum. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-01/overtourism-has-been-a-problem-for-at-least-700-years Is the World’s Largest Cruise Ship Still Fun? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/02/is-worlds-largest-cruise-ship-still-fun.html Barcelona Some of 2023’s worst destinations for overtourism. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/12/some-of-2023s-worst-destinations-for.html Allt blir mycket om man multiplicerar det med 10 miljarder. Vi har väl egentligen alltid vetat att om hela jordens befolkning skulle leva som vi så går det inte. Tänk om alla skulle besöka Rom, London och Florens, t ex. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/2019-tourism-led-to-52-gigatonnes-of.html

There’s a Reason Europe Is So Obsessed With Immigration The historian Eric Hobsbawm was no friend of nationalism. Growing up Jewish in the ruins of the German and Austro-Hungarian empires, he held an instinctual suspicion of all claims to national belonging.  RE: Really? Although global inequality technically fell in the past 30 years, that decline can largely be attributed to one country: China.  Generally, the gap in living standards between the West and the rest remains dizzyingly large. In my /Niall Ferguson/ book Civilization: The West and the Rest (2011), I argued that ..  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/12/the-dangerous-wisdom-of-chinese-crowds.html In recent years, the union has embarked on a quest to define its “shared European home,” as Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, puts it.  The transformation of many European countries into tourist-driven service economies has only worsened the disorientation. The far right’s fondness ...

US 10-Year Yield Rises to Highest Since 2007  The latest leg of the move followed an increase in global oil prices as risks to Middle East supplies grow. The drop in US government bonds is part of a broader global move that’s seen Germany’s 10-year yield rise to the highest since 2009, while Australia’s equivalent rate touched a 15-year high. Bloomberg 15 September 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-15/us-10-year-treasury-yields-rise-to-highest-level-since-2007 Markets Blinked at 5% There have been fears that a 5% yield on Treasuries, the most important number in global finance, could be a “tipping point.”  The tipping point, made famous by a book by Malcolm Gladwell,  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmXrwKydM9k The tipping point is an infuriating concept, because it’s impossible to know in advance what point will cause a market to tip. But in this case, it looks like another Gladwell tome might be more relevant: Blink.  https://www.goodreads.com/en...

Stockholmsbörsen återhämtar sig efter förmiddagens sättning.  Oljepriset har vänt från dagshögstanivåerna kring 108 dollar per fat för Brentoljan till att nu handlas för 106 dollar. DI 15 september 2026, 13:29 https://www.di.se/live/borsen-aterhamtar-sig-saab-lyfter-med-sektorn/ Markets Blinked at 5% US 10-Year Yield Highest Since 2007. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/markets-blinked-at-5-us-10-year-yield.html Saudi Arabia caught between the emboldened, battle-hardened Houthis and the threat of militant attacks from Iraq, where Iranian-backed Shia militias and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are active. The East-West pipeline, which has a maximum capacity of up to 7mn barrels a day, became vital for its exports after Iran began attacking shipping in the Hormuz Strait. With its closure the Yanbu and Petro Rabigh oil refineries on Saudi Arabia’s western coast to start cutting production imminently.  Financial Times 15 September 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/a143e08d-e979...

Några månader efter att Simona Mohamsson valts till partiledare bjöds hon in till Stiftelsen Fritt Näringslivs årliga konferens. 2025 hölls den i Tallinn. Tema: Europa. Hon ägnade sin kvart på scen åt euron, en plädering för att Sverige borde ta språnget. Stiftelsekonferensen är mytomspunnen, fylld av moderata höjdare, profiler från näringslivet, ett vem-är-vem i den gamla, kapitalstarka svenska högern. För Mohamsson var det ett perfekt tillfälle att göra ett intryck i en bredare Tidö-kontext.  En chans hon inte lyckades ta. Hälften i lokalen hatade euron. Men viktigare: Hon talade till dem som de var barn. – Vi är inga ungdomsförbundare i någon lokalförening i Falkenberg! sa en av dem efteråt. Hon krävde mandat för att ”göra det som krävs” om hon blev partiledare. Och det fick hon. Fast i Stockholm tolkade man det som att hon bad om stöd för att hålla sverigedemokrater borta från ministerposter. I Skåne som att hon avsåg att öppna dörren för sverigedemokrater i regeringen. På land...

Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia closed a major crude pipeline following attacks, disrupting a key route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-13/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-sept-14 ECB, Fed,  Bank of Japan and other central banks are expected to raise interest rates in response to the ongoing conflict and elevated energy prices. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-14/this-energy-shock-is-shredding-central-banks-rates-playbook Amerikanska tioåringen över 5 procent Den svenska tioåringen upp 3 punkter till 3,17.  AI-oro tyngde Wall Street – storbanker tappade. S&P 500 ned 0,5 procent. Nasdaq föll med 0,6 procent Dow sjönk 0,3 procent. Nvidia och Broadcom tappade 3,4 respektive 4,8 procent. Brentoljan omkring 106 dollar.  https://www.di.se/live/ai-oro-tyngde-wall-street-storbanker-tappade/ Stockholmsbörsen inledde handelsveckan på rött. Stigande marknadsräntor och ökade oljepriser; Brentoljan omk...

Efter månader av debatter, utspel, utfrågningar och mer eller mindre märkliga upptåg är det äntligen dags. Nu ska väljarna avgöra vilka som får förtroendet att styra landet.  Men när vi ser tillbaka på valrörelsen är det inte alldeles lätt att säga vad det egentligen var vi förväntades ta ställning till. Jörgen Huitfeldt Kvartal 13 september 2026 https://kvartal.se/jorgenhuitfeldt/artiklar/var-det-verkligen-spel-vi-ville-ha/cG9zdDoxODk0Mjg How Likely Is It That AI Kills Us All? Is the world hurtling toward an AI catastrophe? For years, experts in and around the industry have warned that we may be — a view encapsulated, in extreme form, by the 2025 book If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, by the AI researchers Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares. The best answer is unsatisfying: Nobody knows. The second best answer, though, is: Probably not, but the chances are still uncomfortably high. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-09-13/how-likely-is-it-that-ai-kills-us-all Anthrop...