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China Evergrande Fraudulently Boosted Sales

 Founder Hui Ka Yan is given lifetime ban by Chinese markets panel The China Securities Regulatory Commission found Hengda had substantially inflated crucial reported financials in 2019 and 2020, and relied on those misleading figures to sell bonds.  It judges sales were overstated by a total of 564.1 billion yuan over the two years, or the equivalent of $78.4 billion.  Rebecca Feng Bloomberg 18 March 2024 https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/china-evergrande-fraudulently-boosted-sales-regulator-says-356eaee4 China Evergrande Group received a liquidation order from a Hong Kong court Bloomberg 29 January 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/01/evergrande-heads-to-liquidation.html How the World’s Priciest Property Market Stumbled Reversal of fortune for Hong Kong’s housing market is a symbol of the city’s malaise, and a fiscal headache for the government Wall Street Journal 29 February 2024 https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/how-the-worlds-priciest-property-market-stumbled-9b5d

J-21 och J-22 med mera

  The Experimental Swedish WW2 Fighter - Saab 21 - YouTube

Has Fed Hit the Brakes Hard Enough?

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  Federal-funds rate target, at 5.25% to 5.5%, is relatively high in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms Because of lags, the question of whether growth perseveres or rolls over in the face of past interest-rate hikes might well be resolved in the next six months. Fed raises short-term interest rates to cool inflation by slowing demand, hiring and wage growth.  It does that through the ripple effects on broader financial conditions such as stock prices and long-term bond and mortgage rates.  The interest rate that achieves financial conditions that keep the economy at full strength and inflation steady is called “neutral.”  To slow growth and reduce inflation, the Fed must push rates above neutral. Some business executives, economists and Fed officials say solid growth suggests rates might not be that far above neutral right now.  “We thought we had two feet on the brakes, but maybe we in fact only have one foot on the brakes, and that’s why we haven’t seen as much of a reduction in d

France, Germany and Poland differences over Ukraine

In particular the chancellor has resisted intense pressure to supply German-made Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, a stand that has won support for his politically flagging Social Democrats among war-shy Germans (an opinion poll suggests that 61% of Germans oppose such transfers).  But it has frustrated allies as well as many German policy experts and the opposition Christian Democrats. The French president’s most provocative move has been to float the possibility that nato forces might undertake non-combat roles in Ukraine.  They have promised to meet again in a few months.  The Economist 15 March 2024 https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/03/15/france-germany-and-poland-try-to-patch-differences-over-ukraine

Between 1885 and 1919, Germany was the third-largest colonial power in Africa

  he colonies included present-day  Namibia , the present-day states of  Burundi ,  Rwanda  and  Tanzania  (without Zanzibar) as well as Togo,  Cameroon  and areas in present-day  Ghana . Germany's colonial era: Battling oblivion with art – DW – 03/16/2024

Fastator, Björn Rosengren, Carl Bildt, Spiltan och Batljan

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  Fastighetsbolaget Fastator som i leds av exministern Björn Rosengren, ställde på torsdagens kväll in räntebetalningar  på flera obligationer och aviserade på fredagen två separata försäljningar av fastigheter.  Bolagets problem är dåliga nyheter för såväl Spiltan Fonder som Fastators storägare tillika tidigare vd Joachim Kuylenstierna och hans ägarbolag, som fram till nyligen hette Naibaf.  Naibaf har en utstående obligation om 200 miljoner kronor med förfall den 2 maj.  DI 16 mars 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/joachim-kuylenstiernas-agarbolag-i-akut-knipa/ Fastator Björn Rosengren och Carl Bildt Vid utgången av året hade bolaget räntebärande skulder på närmare 2,3 miljarder kronor. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/02/fastator-bjorn-rosengren-och-carl-bildt.html Hela årets uppgång i Spiltan Räntefond raderades av kraschen i Intrum på torsdagen.  Fonden marknadsförs som en lågriskprodukt men innehåller obligationer från krisbolag som Fastator och Ilija Batljan Invest AB. https:

Många moderater och kristdemokrater tycker att Carl Bildts principiella ”Ja till EU” är otidsenligt och pinsamt

I en ny rapport från Timbro (”Varning för Swexit! Högerväljarnas kluvna syn på EU”) analyserar Carl Albinsson opinionen och skriver om ”en utbredd skepsis gentemot överstatlighet och federalism hos många högerväljare”. SD:s Charlie Weimers går till storms mot unionens överstatliga beslut och institutioner, försvarar oinskränkt nationell suveränitet och varnar för Europas förenta stater. Sådant tycks numera gå hem bland högerns väljare. Den som följer sociala medier inser att många moderater och kristdemokrater tycker att Carl Bildts principiella ”Ja till EU” är otidsenligt och pinsamt. Albinsson tror därför att M och KD har ”ett växande EU-problem” och varnar för att ”ge fritt spelrum” till Sverigedemokraterna. Medlemsländerna överlåter sin suveräna rätt att lagstifta inom begränsade, om än allt fler områden till EU, där beslut i stället fattas gemensamt.  Sedan klubbas överstatliga EU-lagar, ofta med majoritetsbeslut som är bindande för företag, myndigheter och människor i alla medlem

The price of secondhand homes in China ...

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  ... fell 6.3% in February compared to the same month last year. That was the worst year-on-year decline since the government started releasing data in 2011. It was part of a widespread drop in prices across the country, as China’s painful real-estate slump shows no signs of losing steam. Wall Street Journal 15 March 2024  https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinese-home-prices-decline-but-at-steady-pace-e2cb94f8  

Wall Street Doom Prophesy Falls Flat

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Gustav Sällberg från Prior Nilsson   ”Jag tror att fastighetsaktier kan dubblas på två, tre års sikt.” https://www.di.se/nyheter/forvaltarna-aktierna-att-kopa-nu-kan-dubblas/ Prior Nilsson  https://priornilsson.se/ The last few years of gravity-defying markets have proved unkind to the pundit class With the US economy expanding at a healthy clip, a Bloomberg-compiled portfolio tracking equities, Treasuries and corporate debt is poised for its best five-month performance since 2016. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that the S&P 500’s latest leg up began in October — just when economists started to ratchet up their 2024 forecasts for US household consumption. “The return of the YOLO was not on my February bingo card,” said Scott Rubner, a managing director at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., referring to the “you only live once” acronym that’s often associated with the gambling retail crowd. “I need to wake up every morning to see what stock can rally 50% by Friday.” “We’re not in a bubble. The

The bulls are clearly in charge

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You may have noticed the stock market rising lately  Much of the gain isn’t so much “the market” as a handful of mega-cap stocks. Nonetheless, the bulls are clearly in charge.  The question is how long they will stay there. History suggests longer than many market bears think. Sarah Hansen at Morningstar thinks the market is fairly valued. David Rosenberg, not so much. Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian recently concluded that stocks are still poised to climb higher.  But then we get to that timing thing.  The market today trades at a healthy 24X trailing earnings. For the record, I am not selling my stocks and I'm actually shifting a larger portion of my portfolio into equities, although not growth stocks. My good friend David Bahnsen note that 75% of the S&P 500 stocks are trading at 15X their earnings, or more.  That means you are paying $15 to acquire $1 of profits—which makes sense only if you think someone else will pay even more.  To be fair, that’s be

Swaps pricing Friday showed less than 75 basis points of easing priced by December

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  10-year yields are on track for biggest weekly rise this year Bloomberg 15 March 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/treasuries-slump-as-traders-push-fed-rate-cut-bets-out-to-july Major equity indexes are heading for weekly declines https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-inch-higher-as-inflation-jitters-cap-gains-c377d4a3

Drone Swarms Are About to Change the Balance of Military Power

History is littered with similar stories. A favorite comes from the time of Alexander the Great. His conquests are as much a technological story as a political one.  When Alexander’s army stepped onto the battlefield it was not only with a new technology—the sarissa, a 16-foot spear—but also with a new conception of how to use that weapon in tight, impregnable phalanxes.  USS Gerald R. Ford, was on its maiden voyage, having recently been completed at a price tag of $13 billion. This makes it the most expensive warship in history. For that same sum, a nation could purchase 650,000 Shahed drones. It would only take a few of those drones finding their target to cripple and perhaps sink the Ford.  Fortunately, the Ford and other U.S. warships possess ample missile defense systems that make it highly improbable that a few, or even a few dozen, Shahed drones could land direct hits.  But rapid developments in AI are changing that. Wall Street Journal 14 March 2024 https://www.wsj.com/tech/dro

Intrum anlitar Houlihan Lokey som hanterade Lehman Brothers kollaps under finanskrisen.

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  Richard Bråse DI 14 mars 2024 https://www.di.se/analys/game-over-for-aktieagarna/ Vägen till ruinens brant Hela historien om Intrums uppgång och fall DI 8 mars 2024 https://www.di.se/analys/vagen-till-ruinens-brant/ Lehman Brothers ställde in betalningarna den 15 september 2008 - vad har vi lärt oss på 15 år? Gunnar Örn DPS 31 aug. 2023 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/09/lehman-brothers-stallde-in.html "Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, got down on his knees in front of Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, and begged her not to block the plan" https://www.internetional.se/lehman911.htm

The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes averaged 2.39% in the decade through 2019

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  Higher-for-Longer and That’s OK - Good News is Good News and Bad News is Good News (englundmacro.blogspot.com)

US Stock Market Doesn’t Care About Rate Cuts

That’s because of a startling inflection in US profits, and amazing market momentum CPI print for February came in hotter than expected, yet the stock market wasn’t bothered. The US stock market has quite a head of steam, and once it has momentum is hard to stop. When the herd is running like this, nobody wants to get in the way Remember that when momentum finally reverses, it does so in a big way. John Authers 14 March 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-14/why-us-stocks-don-t-care-if-the-fed-takes-time-cutting-rates America’s economy has escaped a hard landing   Calling it a soft landing may in fact be an understatement, for what is most striking about the American economy at present is not its deceleration but its continued momentum.  It is not just economists who are upbeat. America’s stockmarkets keep hitting new records. Corporate earnings are set to rise strongly this year. Ordinary folk, too, are growing more optimistic. The Economist 14 March 2024  https://

Inflationen KPIF sjönk till 2,5 procent i februari

Inflationen mätt som KPIF sjönk från 3,3 procent i årstakt i januari till 2,5 procent i februari På månadsbasis steg KPIF-inflationen, som är inflationen med fast ränta, med 0,2 procent. Det var också lägre än förväntningarna som låg på 0,3 procent. Inflationstakten mätt som KPI uppgick till 4,5 procent i februari jämfört med samma månad i fjol. Det kan jämföras med 5,4 procent i januari. Samtidigt som elpriserna sjönk kraftigt steg priserna på kläder, vilket enligt SCB är säsongsnormalt, samt på drivmedel, bostadshyror, rekreation och kultur samt på restaurang- och hotellbesök. DI 14 mars 2024 https://www.di.se/live/lagre-inflationstakt-an-vantat-i-februari/ ”Värsta tiden är bakom oss” Den värsta tiden gällande inflationsökningar är nu bakom oss, menar SVT:s ekonomikommentator Alexander Norén. – Dagens siffror visar att det inte finns någon oro för bakslag, säger han i Morgonstudion. SvT 14 mars 2024 https://www.svt.se/nyhe ter/inrikes/inflationen-sjonk-i-februari

EU-paketet till Egypten 85 miljarder kronor

För att mota en akut kris i Arabvärldens mest folkrika land förbereder EU ett nytt stort stödpaket. (Befolkning 2020 uppskattning 102 miljoner) Tidigare fått lån och investeringar om totalt 40 miljarder dollar, motsvarande nära 410 miljarder kronor från Förenade Arabemiraten och IMF.  Det syftar också till att förstärka Egyptens gräns mot Libyen där många korsar Medelhavet på väg till Europa DI 13 mars 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/miljardregn-ska-hindra-storkris-i-egypten/

Higher-for-Longer and That’s OK - Good News is Good News and Bad News is Good News

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Inflation has come in slightly higher than expected for a second straight month.  Markets took Tuesday’s CPI data in stride. Investors are getting used to the idea that interest rates in the U.S. could stay high for longer than they had hoped.  Of course what will ultimately have the bigger impact on markets and the economy isn’t when the Fed starts but where it ends up.  Longer term, the debate hinges on where the so-called neutral rate falls in the current, postpandemic economy. In this light, Tuesday’s market action, with stocks rising even as rate expectations moved slightly higher, could be a sign that Wall Street is weaning itself off an addiction to low rates.  That certainly would be encouraging. Wall Street Journal 13 March 2024 https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/its-a-higher-for-longer-world-for-rates-and-thats-ok-e8e8459a Producentpriserna i USA steg mer än väntat i februari.   Ökningen var 0,6 procent jämfört med januari. Ekonomkåren hade räknat med hälften så myck

Så var det på 60-talet

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  Från rekordåren till dåråren https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/01/fran-hojdpunkten-1965-66-till-1967-68.html Mats Gellerfelt om Göran Hägg Välfärdsåren http://www.aftonbladet.se/kultur/bokrecensioner/article10664429.ab

Tickande bomben i Heimstaden AB

Ivar Tollefsens Heimstaden AB, som kontrollerar den pressade bostadsjätten Heimstaden Bostad, kan få problem att hantera ett obligationsförfall 2025. Cirka 70 miljarder kronor av svenskt pensionskapital har genom Alecta, Folksam och Pensionsmyndigheten investerats i Heimstaden Bostad, där de svenska pensionsförvaltarna har krokat arm med den norske miljardären Ivar Tollefsen och hans bolag Heimstaden AB. Heimstaden AB kanske inte klarar av att hantera ett obligationsförfall i slutet av 2025 på drygt 1 miljard kronor. DI 13 mars 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/kinesiska-bolag-forbereder-sig-for-trump-i-vita-huset/ Heimstaden Bostads huvudägare Alecta, Folksam och Ivar Tollefsens ägarbolag Heimstaden AB Största ägaren i Heimstaden Bostad är norrmannen Ivar Tollefsens Heimstaden AB. Ivar Tollefsens bolag är helt beroende av utdelningar från dotterbolaget Heimstaden Bostad för att täcka allt högre räntor på sina lån.  Ställs alla utdelningar in, vilket det finns uppenbar risk för, lär detta

All over the world, the total fertility rate (TFR) has been falling since the 1970s

The total fertility rate (TFR) — the number of live children the average woman bears in her lifetime   In one country after another, it has dropped under the 2.1 threshold (the “replacement rate,” allowing for childhood deaths and sex imbalances), below which the population is bound to decline.    This fertility slump is in many ways the most remarkable trend of our era. And it is not only Elon Musk who worries that “population collapse is potentially the greatest risk to the future of civilization.” Our species is not done multiplying, to be sure.   “More than half of the projected increase in the global population between 2022 and 2050 is expected to be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo [DRC], Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.”  When the human population begins to fall, it will do so not gradually, but almost as steeply as it once rose. The problem is that this precipitous decline w

Svenska miljonärer är rikare än någonsin

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Det visar lyxtidningen Connoisseurs undersökning av sina läsare, där en tredjedel av miljonärerna har över 20 miljoner i värdepapper och hela 7 procent av miljonärerna besitter över 100 miljoner kronor. Susanne Ytterskog är chef på Connoisseur som hon även grundade 1998. En tidning som delas ut tre gånger per år och skickas ut till de vars årliga inkomst landar på 2,6 miljoner kronor eller mer SvD 12 mars 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/ab5moE/svenska-miljonarer-ar-rikare-an-nagonsin-detta-spenderas-pengarna-pa Årets bästa börsdag i Stockholm  US Core Inflation Tops Forecasts Again - Därför ignorerar börsen inflationsmissen (englundmacro.blogspot.com) Vad vet vi exakt om den ekonomiska fördelningen och eventuell ojämlikhet?  Hur mycket har den ökat, på vilket sätt har den ökat och vad spelar det egentligen för roll?   Jesper Roine, professor på Handelshögskolan och en av rapportens författare, diskuterar med Daniel Waldenström, professor i nationalekonomi, och Andreas Ericson. SvD podd 11 ma

S&P 500 another all-time high. That feels a world away from US households

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Inflation 3.8%, against an official target of 2%, it remains too high for the Federal Reserve to risk a cut in the fed funds rate: And yet, financial markets didn’t react with horror. So Why Are Americans Still so Unhappy About Inflation? College has made itself too hard for most to afford Even though inflation may be down, it’s harder to finance debt. That naturally makes people feel poorer, and effectively makes products typically bought on credit more expensive than they appear.  Core inflation is currently higher than the headline, and the core measure exists to focus on the goods and services that can be affected by monetary policy.  There’s not much a central bank can do about food or fuel prices. However, food and fuel certainly matter to family budgets. John Authers 13 March 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-13/inflation-s-harsh-line-between-the-latest-s-p-500-record-and-the-common-man

Styrelsen i ett fastighetsbolag kan ha beslutat om internvärdering ...

... utan att det avspeglar möjligheten att i nuläget sälja fastigheterna till motsvarande marknadspris. Det är naturligtvis extra pikant i ett läge då fastigheter har fallit i marknadsvärde.  Men nu utreder Finansinspektionen, FI, om att strama upp informationen kring fastighetsaffärer. Johan Hellekant SvD 12 mars 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/dwxxnA/fi-utreder-transparensen-i-bolags-fastighetsaffarer

We were supposed to be in a recession by now. The exact opposite happened

The Errors Tour: How the Pros Bungled the End of Zero Interest Rates A look at the ways forecasters, traders and executives missed the mark over the past two years. And at the lessons learned. We were supposed to be in a recession by now, at least if you listened to mainstream economists.  The exact opposite happened: Unemployment is down near a half-century low, consumers keep spending, and residential real estate demand remains insatiable. Bloomberg News 14 februari 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-14/the-errors-tour-how-finance-pros-bungled-the-end-of-zero-interest-rates Economics is the most mathematical of the social sciences.  That’s not because economists are smarter than, say, sociologists or political scientists; trust me, it’s quite possible to say stupid things with equations  In particular, the Fed would very much like to know how high it needs to keep the interest rate — or more precisely, the interest rate minus expected inflation — to avoid overheatin

US Core Inflation Tops Forecasts Again - Därför ignorerar börsen inflationsmissen

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  Bloomberg 12 mars 2024 at 13:32 CET https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-12/us-core-inflation-tops-forecasts-for-a-second-straight-month Historisk nivå: OMXS30 på 2.500 DI 12 mars 11.58 https://www.di.se/live/historisk-niva-omxs30-pa-2-500/ Årets bästa börsdag i Stockholm  Stockholmsbörsens breda index OMXSPI stängde plus 1,5 procent https://www.di.se/live/arets-basta-borsdag-i-stockholm-volvo-slog-rekord/ The 2-year yield rose 6.5 basis points to 4.597%. The 10-year rate jumped 5.1 basis points to 4.154%. The 30-year yield rose 3.6 basis points to 4.311%. Finansmarknaderna kan vara krävande. För närvarande har de prisat in en nästintill perfekt utveckling under de närmaste månaderna – inte minst i USA, där det senaste årets urstarka börsutveckling lett till höga värderingar som nu mer eller mindre kräver räntesänkningar för att överleva på sikt. Tror man – som majoriteten av både analytikerna och investerarna – att Fed slår till med en sänkning i juni finns det därmed got

Fråga Siri om livets mening

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Nu har psykologen Siri Helle, född 1991, sammanfattat sina upptäckter i boken Existensboosten som handlar om vårt behov av att hitta svar på livets stora frågor, som lyckan och meningen med livet. SvD 12 mars 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/zEdr49/existentiell-halsa-denna-bok-hjalper-dig-hitta-meningen-med-livet Siri - Apple

Runnymede was witness to King John's historic sealing of the Magna Carta over 800 years ago

It is also home to the only piece of American land in the whole of the UK. And it all dates back to one day in 1963 that changed history forever. JFK Memorial https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p0ftrxhx/the-tiny-piece-of-the-us-hidden-in-england Oligarkerna, EU och Magna Charta https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/03/oligarkerna-eu-och-magna-charta.html

The Economist: Is the bull market about to turn into a bubble?

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Two years ago, pretty much everyone agreed that one of the great bubbles was bursting. An era of rock-bottom interest rates was coming to a close, shaking the foundations of just about every asset class.  Share prices were plunging, government bonds were being hammered, crypto markets were in freefall. Wall Street’s prophets of doom were crowing with delight.  Less than 18 months later stockmarkets around the world are back at all-time highs  As the dotcom frenzy reached its peak, Julian Robertson, one of the 20th century’s most revered hedge-fund managers, stalwartly refused to buy tech stocks.  His investors eventually revolted and withdrew their money, forcing his fund to close right as the crash was about to start.  Hence another sign that a bubble is about to pop: some of the market’s gloomier voices are fired. The Economist 11 March 2024 https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/11/is-the-bull-market-about-to-become-a-bubble There is little reason to believe that th