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  France: between the bond market and the barricades https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/france-between-bond-market-and.html USA: handelsbalans augusti. Import 400 mrd, export 300 mrd, underskott 100 mrd.  Dollar. I augusti. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/usas-samlade-underskott-i.html Inga problem. Du skall göra som dom i New York. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/inga-problem-du-skall-gora-som-dom-i.html A Top-Heavy Stocks Rally. Förväntningar på extremt vinstrally för USA:s teknikjättar. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/a-top-heavy-stocks-rally.html Tea Party movement. Tea party-rörelsen förstår samhällsekonomi i termer av hushållsekonomi. Experterna skrattar åt denna naivitet. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/tea-party-movement.html JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. Risks from AI “went up 10-fold after Mythos”. Anthropic PBC’s Mythos artificial-intelligence model has dramatically increased global cybersecurity risks. “I’m not going...

High debt levels become dangerous when rising interest rates push up borrowing costs and governments fail to respond.  With little political appetite to rein in its federal deficit and ballooning debt, the United States risks finding itself with few options when the next war, recession, or financial crisis arrives. Kenneth Rogoff Project Syndicate  Oct 1, 2026 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-cannot-keep-putting-off-addressing-its-fiscal-problems-by-kenneth-rogoff-2026-09 Beskyllningen mot Tea party-rörelsen är att den förstår samhällsekonomi i termer av hushållsekonomi.  Experterna skrattar åt denna naivitet.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/staten-kan-bara-ge-vad-den-tar-med.html Tea Party movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement Alltför många oroar sig för statsskulder och statsskuldräntor. Om man har en sedelpress går man inte i konkurs. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/alltfor-manga-oroar-sig-for.html Why the ho...

  USA:s samlade underskott i handelsbalansen uppgick till 105,6 miljarder dollar i augusti, jämfört med ett underskott på 88,6 miljarder dollar föregående månad. 6 oktober 20226 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026 https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-august-2026 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-10-06-2026/card/one-great-chart-u-s-goods-deficit-surges-YfPPOG5YZoHvEgcDZ37W US Trade deficit September https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/3-september.html The Problem Trump Is Seeking to Tackle Is Very Real https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/us-trade-deficit.html

  France: between the bond market and the barricades https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/france-between-bond-mar¨¨ket-a nd.html The 10-year Treasury yield, the most important number in global finance,   has now broken through its high from 2007, when a bond sell-off triggered the Global Financial Crisis.  It’s now the highest since 2002. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/a-top-heavy-stocks-rally.html

Just nu överskuggas allt av förväntningarna på ännu ett extremt vinstrally för USA:s teknikjättar.  I längden är det inte rimligt att långräntor ger en avkastning på 5 procent, som i USA, samtidigt som börsen värderas till över p/e 20. Nvidia har exempelvis bara i augusti och september ökat sitt börsvärde med 12.000 miljarder kronor till närmare 60.000 miljarder kronor. Dragloket på Stockholmsbörsen är framför allt Atlas Copco som på tisdagen för första gången passerade 1.000 miljarder kronor i börsvärde. Ulf Petersson DI 6 oktober 2026 https://www.di.se/analys/kurschock-hotar-borsgiganterna/ The 10-year Treasury yield, the most important number in global finance, has now broken through its high from 2007, when a bond sell-off triggered the Global Financial Crisis.  It’s now the highest since 2002. The Nasdaq-100 also set a landmark Monday, rising 0.9% to top 31,000 for the first time. On the face of it, the big tech companies are proving immune to the rising cost of money. Th...

  The country is being hit by a pre-election debt sell-off. Many fear it could shake the Eurozone. France’s debt has reached €3.5tn, at nearly 120 per cent of GDP, far above the Eurozone average. Servicing costs the state’s single biggest expenditure ahead of education or defence. The additional interest rate that France pays to borrow over ultra-safe German debt has surged to around 1.4 percentage points on 10-year debt. In the worst-case scenario, some think the European Central Bank could be forced to come to the rescue. That could come at the cost of demanding structural reforms, such as slashing pension spending, which the French public has long rejected. Financial Times 6 October 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/9b252b46-a87c-45e7-a09a-45a39ce077b8?syn-25a6b1a6=1 In Europe, the shadows of the 2011-12 crisis are emerging again. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Financial Times 5 October 2026 The writer is a former member of the executive board of the European Central Bank and former chair of...

Overall, as of the second quarter banks’ unrealized losses on securities stood at just under $330 billion, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Banks collectively have added capital in recent years.  As a percentage of banks’ so-called Tier 1 capital, those losses have gone from over 33% in the third quarter of 2022, to around 14% as of the second quarter this year, FDIC data show. Of course, bonds have experienced losses in value since the end of the second quarter as yields have risen.  Yet investors don’t seem reassured by that. The KBW Nasdaq Bank index has slumped almost 9% over the past month Wall Street Journal 5 October 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/bank-stocks-are-haunted-by-the-ghosts-of-2023-a2a64725

  Magdalena vill låta EU köra över oss om utrikespolitiken - QMV - Beslagta de ryska pengarna i Bryssel, inte bara spärra. Qualified majority voting, based on the double-majority rule, is the main method used by the Council of the European Union to adopt EU legislation. Vetorätten i EU håller på att bli historia. Frankrike och Tyskland har långtgående planer. Magdalena Andersson has big plans for Europe. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/magdalena-vill-lata-eu-kora-over-oss-om.html Teknikbolag drev upp USA-börserna Räntan på den amerikanska 10-åringen nådde sin högsta nivå sedan 2002 och handlades till 5,32 procent. Sportpriset på Brentoljan var ned 2,4 procent, men handlades fortsatt över 100 dollar per fat. Samtidigt klättrar aktiemarknaden vidare och skakar av sig oro för stigande räntor, dyrare energi och inflation. https://www.di.se/live/teknikbolag-drev-upp-usa-borserna-intel-mot-strommen/ Marknaden hoppas på svagare krona. Kronan gillar inte när det är höga räntor i ...

Magdalena Andersson has big plans for Europe  In an exclusive interview with POLITICO conducted on election day, the Social Democrat leader set out her mission to refocus Swedish foreign policy — and to give the EU more muscle.   Andersson wants to scrap the rule granting a veto right to every EU member country on foreign policy. “I think it should be qualified majority … on foreign policy,” she said,  One area where EU leaders tried — and famously failed — to get a unanimous agreement was on whether or not to use Russia’s financial assets, lying immobilized in a Brussels depository, to help fund Ukraine’s mounting costs of defending itself. Efforts to secure a deal foundered last year on legal concerns from Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever. The debate was revived in recent weeks by a group of countries led by Germany. What does Andersson think should happen to the assets? “Take them, use them,” she said Politico September 23, 2026  https://www.politico.eu/articl...

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  After a decade of political missteps and global cataclysms that made government spending his go-to solution, popular anger is rising, growth is sinking, debt is soaring and investors are dumping French assets in a global bond market rout that has made it the euro area’s weakest economic link. Bloomberg 4 October 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-04/how-macron-s-decade-in-power-left-france-europe-s-weakest-link Read more: Whispers of Contagion Risk Are Returning to Europe’s Bond Market https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-04/whispers-of-contagion-risk-are-returning-to-europe-s-bond-market You know it’s a European debt crisis when it has an acronym.  This time it’s not a group of countries in serious trouble, the famous PIIGS of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain.  Instead it’s France alone being singled out with FROGS, which stands for French Oversized Government and Social Security (blame Parisian research firm Rexecode for that one...

Trendbrott: Vinden vänder på börsen. ”Dags att hissa spinnakern och dra nytta av medvinden.” Tillväxten på Stockholmsbörsen har varit låg jämfört med många andra marknader det senaste året. Detta beror till stor del på att bolagen mött en kraftfull valutamotvind de senaste åren efter att den svenska kronan stärkts. 100 miljoner dollar i vinst är plötsligt mindre värd i rapporteringsvalutan svenska kronor. Baserat på den genomsnittliga valutakursen under kvartalet har den amerikanska dollarn stärkts med 1 procent mot kronan, medan euron är oförändrad. Ett positivt trendskifte, även om det inte är tal om någon massiv medvind. Den svagare kronan beror sannolikt främst på större ränteskillnader, efter att flera centralbanker har höjt sina räntor medan svenska Riksbanken hittills har legat stilla. Det medför vissa negativa konsekvenser. Det blir dyrare som svensk att åka på semester och bolagen som framförallt importerar produkter från utlandet för att sälja i Sverige, drabbas stenhårt. Rob...

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rs5fIopDHI8&list=PLaSguNBvHIto Why the household budget myth is dangerous economics Keynes vs MMT: which economic theory fits our world? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/why-household-budget-myth-is-dangerous.htm Monetary Creation and Destruction - Att skapa och förinta pengar https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/monetary-creation-and-destruction-mcd.html

  Vänsterpartiets kopplingar till terrorklassade islamistiska nätverk blev nyckeln till deras valframgångar. I stället för att verka avskräckande har skandalerna kring partiföreträdare som öppet skyltat med Hamassympatier och deltagit i hyllningar av massakern på Novafestivalen 2023 lockat stora muslimska väljarskaror i utanförskapsområden.  Men dagens vänsterpartier har hittat en väg ut ur socialismens klasskampspolitik – ett arbetarparti utan arbetare har ju ändå ingen framtid.  I stället såg vänstern sin ljusnande framtid i grupper som bär tydliga likheter med palestinarörelsen i fråga om synen på judar. Socialismens djupa rötter i antisionismen, som även Karl Marx gav näring åt, trots att han var jude, kunde således vävas samman med Palestinaaktivismens antisemitiska slagord. Unni Drougge Epoch Times 2026-10-01 https://www.epochtimes.se/vanstern-gar-fran-klasskamp-till-klan Why Bowl Together When You Can Scroll Alone? Bowling was once popular as a family-friendly way ...

  By 1945 the British had painfully discovered that while Tommies and GIs were fighting side-by-side against the Germans and Japanese, back home the Roosevelt administration was striking some very harsh bargains with beleaguered Britain.  Churchill’s nation was obliged to sell its entire foreign assets to American corporations at fire-sale prices, to pay for arms.  Montagu Norman, governor of the Bank of England, wrote in March 1941:  “I have never realized so strongly as now how entirely we are in the hands of American ‘friends’ over direct investments, and how much it looks as if, with kind words and feelings, they were going to extract these one after another.” Max Hastings October 4, 2026   https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-10-04/americans-have-always-been-hard-nosed-in-britain-and-europe Max Hastings is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. His histories include "Inferno: The World At War, 1939–1945," "Vietnam: An Epic Tragedy 1945–1975" and "Ab...

  A British army encampment in Kandahar during the First Anglo-Afghan war (1839-42)  © Getty Images Which power will prevail? As in the 19th-century struggle between the UK and Russia, the answer may depend on forces beyond either’s control. The Thucydides Trap is a nice metaphor, it may not be the best practical historical analogy for what is happening between the US and China. it has much in common with the Great Game between Britain and Russia in the 1800s. For Britain it was about making sure that Russia did not acquire a route into India or make Afghanistan a Russian dependency.  Rana Foroohar Financial Times 3 October 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/8869caf9-3cd1-4300-aeb3-828a4d9da4f9?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Rana Foroohar is the FT’s global business columnist and associate editor. Her book ‘Sea Change: America’s New Great Game in the Arctic’     The Great Game again? https://www.internetional.se/greatgame2008.htm Pakistan and the new great game of Risk https:...

With the premium investors charge to hold French securities over equivalent German bunds hitting the highest since the European debt crisis, speculation is mounting on how far turmoil would need to intensify before ECB steps in with its as-yet-unused firefighting tool. That’s a situation the ECB wanted to avoid when it opted during an Italian bond blowout in 2022 to create the Transmission Protection Instrument, whose very existence was meant to keep financial ructions at bay. Bloomberg 2 October  2026 at 5:23 PM GMT+2 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/ecb-s-nightmare-scenario-gets-closer-as-french-bond-yields-surge Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/ecb-officials-see-no-cause-for-alarm.html France’s Crisis Is Deepening as Investors Head for the Exit A selloff in global debt has fueled a rout that’s hitting harder and faster in France than anyone expected, with nerves fraying about missed deficit targets and policy gr...

Wallenberg hyllades när man klev in i Stegra i våras. Enligt tidningen Affärsvärlden saknas det cirka 10 miljarder kronor för Stegra den här gången. Kostnaderna för byggprojektet har ännu en gång felbedömts. När Wallenberg med sitt ägarkonsortium gick in tillfördes runt 15 miljarder kronor i nytt kapital. De pengarna verkar nu inte räcka. Hur kunde Sveriges mäktigaste industriägare missa de nya problemen? Björn Jeffery SvD 1 October 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/9klbyE/ny-kris-i-stegra-vad-missade-wallenberg Wallenberg via Wallenberg Investment blir ny huvudägare i Stegra https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/en-konspirationsteori-familjen.html EUs dråpslag mot Stegra och SSAB  Stegra och SSAB har satsat hundratals miljarder på att kol ska bli dyrt och fossilfritt stål lönsamt. Nu pekar mycket på att EU mildrar utsläppskraven för den gamla stålindustrin. Det kan bli ett dråpslag för hela den gröna industriomställningen i Norrbotten. DN 16 juli 2026  https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/e...

For Iraq's government in Baghdad, September 30, 2026, marks the end of an era. "October 1 will be a new day in the course of the Iraqi state, with the country free of any foreign military presence and the completion of national sovereignty over its territory," Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said in a statement. By Wednesday, the United States will have completed the withdrawal of its remaining 2,500 troops from Iraqi territory according to a 2024 agreement.  Their departure concludes 12 years of the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve mission against the Islamic State group, or ISIS, which at the time was advancing across the country and in neighboring Syria. Deutsche Well 29 September 2026 https://www.dw.com/en/iraq-us-troops-withdraw-from-their-iraqi-us-led-operation-inherent-resolve-mission-against-isis-after-12-years-as-baghdad-delays-militia-disarmament/a-79462926   Donald Trump sa redan för tio år sedan att Irakkriget låg bakom flyktingvågen som ledde till ”Eu...

  Solar panels at the CATL Luoyang base in Henan province. On a production line in south-east China, machines paste a black slurry of electrode material on to a copper ribbon just five microns thick — one 20th of the width of a human hair. Further down the line, a team of robots monitored by an AI quality inspection system will turn the strips into battery cells by cutting them with lasers, winding them into rolls and pressing them with a force equivalent to a 23-tonne weight. The factory is at the Ningde headquarters of CATL, the world’s biggest battery producer and a goliath in the electric car industry. Financial Times 1 October 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/b84778e5-ce8b-4baa-9ca7-402cdf277b4d?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Stockholmsbörsen ser ut att inleda torsdagen med en försiktig nedgång. 1 oktober 2026, 08:14 https://www.di.se/live/fem-saker-att-ha-koll-pa-innan-borsen-oppnar-Ap3Un/ Efter en något skakig torsdag stängde USA-börserna med små rörelser. Räntemarknaden lugnade ned sig någo...