Englund

Artificial intelligence is advancing at a stunning, and perhaps uncontrolled speed.  Last week, Evan Hubinger, the Alignment Science Lead at the AI company Anthropic estimated a greater than 10% chance that AI could eliminate humanity within a decade,  adding “I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.” Can we teach artificial intelligence not simply to pursue objectives, but to look deeply enough to act with compassion, and even wisdom? A seemingly unlikely but illuminating place to begin is with the teachings of Thích Nhất Hạnh, a Vietnamese Buddhist monk, teacher, and peace activist, known to his students simply as Thầy – perhaps best known for bringing the practice of mindfulness to millions of people around the world. Hussman Special Commentary (Non-Financial): September 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/hussman.html Janerik Larsson, Finland och euron. Finland...

 Hussman Funds https://www.hussmanfunds.com/ What Triggered the Crash?  A market crash requires nothing more than a shift in investor psychology from careless speculation to even modest risk-aversion.  The important question to ask is “What drove the bubble?” That’s where the lessons are.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/07/what-triggered-crash-hussman-funds.html With our most reliable valuation measures more extreme than both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks, we continue to believe that the stock market is tracing out the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history. Hussman February 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/john-p-hussman-bjornarnas-konung.html Investors may be feeling some distress. What to do? Does one capitulate and chase the bubble at the highest valuations in history?  Does one wring their hands at the prospect of a bubble that might only go higher and higher forever without end?  Hussman May 2026 htt...

  Rymdbasen Pituffik – som fram till 2023 hette Thule https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/rymdbasen-pituffik-som-fram-till-2023.html   https://www.svt.se/nyheter/video/05fb4e3c67b010e0-tre-kartor-som-visar-varfor-donald-trump-vill-ha-gronland/c9rxpq Greenland There’s no need to panic, but Is it possible that, as in ‘Risk’ or the Mercator projection, everyone thinks Greenland is bigger and more important than it really is? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/greenland-theres-no-need-to-panic-but.html Per Lindvall https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/per-lindvall.html Why the household budget myth is dangerous economics https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/why-household-budget-myth-is-dangerous.html Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/18-september-ai-models-will-evolve.html

Vem är Per Lindvall ? Han är en flerfaldigt prisbelönad svensk ekonomijournalist, ofta beskriven som en av Sveriges bästa inom sitt fält. Han har skrivit för bland annat Svenska Dagbladet, Affärsvärlden, Fokus, Arbetsvärlden, Bostadspolitik.se, Realtid och numera även återkommande för Svenska Epoch Times. Kronan är rekordsvag mot dollarn, fast det borde vara tvärtom enligt skolboken i nationalekonomi. Svaret verkar ha mer att göra med finansiella flöden än med klassiska reala faktorer. Egentligen kokar det ner till frågan: Var vill företag, banker, pensionsfonder och privatpersoner parkera sina pengar och sitt sparande?  Sverige fick ordning på sin ekonomi och har sedan länge ett bytesbalansöverskott i klass med länder som Holland och Tyskland. De senaste åren har det legat runt 6 procent av BNP. Det är därmed uppenbart att stora och regelbundna bytesbalansöverskott inte är något som automatiskt stärker en valuta. Dollardominansen har också ett högt pris då den bidrar till att slå ...

It’s not comforting when a leading economist draws a parallel between today’s global economy and the disaster of the space shuttle Challenger.  Orszag found the same flaw in contemporary economic thinking that Feynman found in NASA. The output of a complex process, he pointed out, is the product of the quality of each of its stages or parts, not the sum. Milton Friedman’s famous comment that “we are all Keynesians now” ... Now, it appears, we all have to be supply-siders. Monetary policy cannot simply look through a supply shock, as the textbooks dictate, if such shocks become regular events. In April 2007, Richard Bookstaber published A Demon of Our Own Design , one of the more prophetic books on the then-coming financial crisis.  Markets, he argued, were too complex for their own good, creating the risk of disaster.  Examples include Europe’s survival of the 2022 crisis caused by reliance on Russian natural gas, or the way 2014 sanctions over the annexation of Crimea pr...

While politicians debate, the Ai-models will evolve. In recent days, political momentum for tighter controls has gathered with unusual speed. The Pro-Human Assembly and Mr Trump’s flurry of posts on the subject came less than a week after the public resignation of Jacob Coxon, a researcher at Anthropic, an AI firm.  Mr Coxon said that he and his colleagues believed that AI could “kill us all” by the end of the decade, a message that he promptly delivered across prime-time television.  Another top scientist at the firm put the probability of extinction at more than 10%. Americans eight in ten say they support regulation, even if it slows down innovation.  The trickier question is what that regulation should be. The Economist 17 September 2026 https://www.economist.com/united-states/2026/09/17/the-debate-over-ai-has-taken-over-washington I’m not qualified to judge whether the 10% figure makes any sense. Some AI scientists think that it is hysterical nonsense; others that, e...

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is backing away from the artificial-intelligence trade to avoid concentration risk in AI stocks. Gundlach cut his recommended equity allocation to 30% from 40%, suggesting putting those funds into a single Fortune 500 equal-weighted index. Gundlach warned that fallout and losers in the AI race will lead to the next very significant drawdown in risk assets. MarketWatch 17 September 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-just-want-out-why-jeffrey-gundlach-is-moving-his-money-as-far-from-ai-as-possible-and-what-hes-doing-instead-54281010 DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach raised a red flag on the massive buying frenzy among retail investors this year, calling it “downright terrifying.” “This is a terrible sign for the condition of the market for anybody who’s experienced a significant number of cycles, which I’ve definitely experienced,” Gundlach said. The coronavirus rout brought a copious amount of new accounts to online brokers this year a...

Many were unconvinced a hike was necessary, and expected Warsh to draw the sting by hinting this would be “one and done,” not the start of a hiking cycle. He didn’t do that. By the close, markets were convinced that more hikes would come, and that Warsh was happy about it.  Warsh framed the hike as part of a “discipline” and “the removal of some accommodation” — implying more to come.  Warsh and the FOMC all presented the economy as stronger than they had thought — classic conditions for more tightening. In the longer term, this moment could yet seem more significant. It’s a big step away from  the “new normal”  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-30/el-erian-says-the-u-s-alone-has-exited-the-new-normal conditions that followed the Global Financial Crisis,  and implies the destination is not the pre-crisis “old normal” driven by globalization and favorable demographics.  Bitcoin funds have attracted a cumulative $55 billion since the launch over...

Jacob Coxon, 27 The Anonymous Math Geek Who Quit Anthropic—and Became the Face of AI Safety King Charles Calls on Nvidia, OpenAI Chiefs to Control AI Britain’s monarch plans to ask some of the most critical figures in artificial intelligence for reassurances the technologists can keep their inventions under control. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/jacob-coxon-27-face-of-ai-safety.html   Stockholmsbörsen inleder uppåt på bred front, i linje med ledande Europabörser. Bland dragloken finns Ericsson och Saab, upp 1,7 respektive 1,2 procent.  Marknaden verkar ha skakat av sig det hökaktiga tonläget i räntebeskedet från USA:s centralbank i onsdags och i stället ha tagit fasta på att beskedet stärker tilltron till bankens inflationsmål. https://www.dn.se/direkt/2026-09-17/borsen-fortsatter-uppat-pa-bred-front/ Tydlig nedgång i oljepriset – börsuppgången tilltar Samtidigt blir stämningen på Stockholmsbörsen allt muntrare. DI 17 september 2026, 14:42 https://www.di.se/live/ty...

  Jacob Coxon, 27 The Anonymous Math Geek Who Quit Anthropic—and Became the Face of AI Safety. Long-simmering worries about the technology’s potential dangers have exploded into global consciousness since Jacob Coxon’s dire warning. Wall Street Journal 16 september 2026 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/jacob-coxon-quit-anthropic-ai-safety-3f4e877c Artificial intelligence is advancing at a stunning, and perhaps uncontrolled speed.  Last week, Evan Hubinger, the Alignment Science Lead at the AI company Anthropic estimated a greater than 10% chance that AI could eliminate humanity within a decade,  adding “I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.” Can we teach artificial intelligence not simply to pursue objectives, but to look deeply enough to act with compassion, and even wisdom? Hussman Special Commentary (Non-Financial): September 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/...

Det är lätt både för politiker och journalister att springa åt ett och samma håll i enlighet med det rådande paradigmet.  Detta som vetenskapen brukar definiera som den samling värderingar som i ett givet ögonblick anses grundläggande av en tongivande majoritet. Tills det plötsligt inte längre är det, utan motsatsen börjar gälla. En åsiktskorridor byts mot en annan.  Minnet är kort och de längre perspektiven glöms lätt bort eller förträngs. En snabbrepetition: i förhållande till folkmängden tog Sverige under några decennier emot mångdubbelt fler invandrare per capita än alla andra västländer (undantaget några små skatteparadis).  Bild: Johan Nilsson / TT Detta pågick länge men accelererade framför allt under åren 2005 till 2015.  Då anlände under tio år mer än en miljon utrikes födda.  Uppåt en fjärdedel av de som bor i Sverige har inte svenska som modersmål och ibland inte heller som vardagsspråk.  I Stockholm är 27 procent utrikes födda, i Göteborg 30 pro...

State of the Union (SOTEU) 2026 The State of the Union (SOTEU) address is an annual speech by the President of the European Commission to the European Parliament, setting the priorities for the Union for the year ahead. In this world, Europe has chosen to forge its own path. And a stronger, independent Europe is now emerging. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/state-union_en State of The Union Rolf Englund, Internet 20/1 2003 https://www.internetional.se/stateoftheunion.htm Visst förstår vi EMU-motståndare att det behövs en politisk union, ett Europas Förenta Stater, om en gemensam valuta skall ha en chans att överleva. Men vi vill inte ha ett Europas Förenta Stater, i vart fall inte utan att Europas stater redan har blivit mer förenade än vad de är i dag och framförallt inte innan de europeiska folken har givit sina ledare ett mycket klart mandat att övergå från nationalstater till en union. Att uppge rikets suveränitet är en stor fråga. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com...

A perfect storm of wars in Iran and Ukraine, extreme weather and the AI bubble threatens disaster. The Bloomberg commodity index has risen 48pc this year, accelerating in pace and spreading in breadth from energy to industrial metals and grains.  The futures markets are no longer pricing in a quick return to normal, as they were in those first insouciant weeks of the Iran war, when traders still believed in the all-conquering might of the US navy.  Brent futures contracts are over $90 a barrel all the way out to the spring of 2027. The first two horsemen of this “apocalypse” – conquest, war, famine and death in the Book of Revelation – are the twin wars in Iran and Ukraine. The headline price of oil drastically understates the gravity of what is happening. The stress has switched to diesel, petrol and jet fuel, the products that we consume and that matter for inflation.  The diesel “crack spread” in New York has quadrupled to levels never seen before, tantamount to oil at...

  Räntefrossa på Wall Street Samtliga ledande index ändrade kulör från grönt till rött efter beskedet. https://www.di.se/live/rantefrossa-pa-wall-street-storbanken-ned/ Indexes Drop, 10-Year Yield Moves Back Above 5% After Warsh Says ‘Inflation Is Too High’ After Fed Raises Interest Rates https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-09162026-12123817 Asked whether he thinks monetary policy is weighing on economic activity following the hike, Warsh said that he “found it difficult to describe financial conditions as restrictive” and that most of his colleagues at the Fed agree. Warsh said that raising rates by 0.25 percentage point had only “removed a dose of accommodation,” suggesting that officials might want to see more restrictive financial conditions, i.e. a less frothy stock market and higher bond yields. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-meeting-warsh-interest-rate-09-16-2026/card/fed-s-warsh-says-interest-rates-aren-t-holding-economy-back-nXqzzqNk...