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23 juli. Iran-stödda Houthi attackerat oljetankers med ballistiska robotar, kryssningsrobotar och drönare. BNP. Tett.

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20.35 Sent onsdag bekräftade Iran-stödda Houthi-rörelsen att den attackerat två oljetankers i Röda havet, med ballistiska robotar, kryssningsrobotar och drönare. Marknaden reagerade omedelbart. Priset på Nordsjöolja steg till över 96 dollar torsdag morgon. https://www.dagensps.se/varlden/allvarlig-upptrappning-attack-mot-oljetankers-i-roda-havet/ Brentoljan passerade vid 15-tiden 100-dollarsgränsen, efter en uppgång om 6,5 procent under torsdagen. Senaste gången oljepriset var över 100 dollar var den 22 maj. Därefter har priset sjunkit, i takt med att en fred i Mellanöstern såg ut att närma sig. https://www.di.se/live/oljan-pa-100-dollar-borsen-surnar/ RE: Trump är väl inte den som lägger sig platt för islamister. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/8-juli-lugn-borsoppning-vantas.html The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.711% in early trading Thursday The rebound in oil prices has renewed worries about the inflation outlook and spurred a shift in interest-rate expec...
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22 juli. Oljepriset stiger. Men börsen stiger ändå. ”det går ganska bra i delårsrapporterna”. "Strax under nollstrecket"

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  Priset på Nordsjöolja (Brent) stiger 4 procent till 94,60 dollar per fat i förmiddagshandeln, den högsta nivån sedan början av juni. DI 22 juli 2026 https://www.di.se/live/oljepriset-stiger-efter-rubios-uttalande-om-iran/ Brent-oljan tittar över 95-dollarsstrecket och Wall Street faller i förhandeln. Men på Stockholmsbörsen är det frid och fröjd. Enligt SEB:s Robert Bergqvist finns det en tydlig förklaring. ”Vad jag hör när jag pratar med vår aktiesida, så framkommer en bild av att det går ganska bra i delårsrapporterna”, säger han och tillägger att bolagens siffror målar upp en bild av en stark konjunktur. Vad gäller stigande räntor menar ekonomen att de ”går upp av rätt orsaker”, nämligen en ökad efterfrågan på kapital för att göra investeringar. DI 22 juli 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/borsen-trotsar-oljesmallen-immunforsvar-mot-trump/ DI: De tre ledande amerikanska indexen avslutade strax under nollstrecket vid onsdagens handel. https://www.di.se/live/ljusrod-stangning-pa-wa...
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21 juli. Inte bara björnar. Houthis. US launches fresh strikes on Iran.

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  US launches fresh strikes on Iran.  US Central Command (Centcom) said its latest strikes had hit Iranian "military command centres, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defence systems". BBC 21 July 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx25wg2x26do De amerikanska börserna stänger på plussidan, efter att ha fått ytterligare fart under dagen. Flera AI-bolag slutar som dagens vinnare, samtidigt som oljepriset stiger ytterligare. Brentolja för 91,4 dollar. https://www.di.se/live/gron-stangning-pa-wall-street-RsVlN/ U.S. stock indexes are advancing, helped by a recovery in chip stocks, as investors gear up for earnings from some of America’s biggest tech companies. Wall Street Journal 21 July 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/u-s-futures-higher-as-ai-trade-bounces-back-d120b6a2 Three years into the artificial-intelligence trade, the U.S. market has delivered some of the best returns, and the most extreme concentration, in decades.  - Yet W...
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There Is Good and Evil. Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ Isn’t Afraid to Say So

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Nolan trusts Homer—and his audience—to recognize that villains deserve defeat and heroes deserve to triumph. The best parts of Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey are the parts in which he simply tells the story of Homer’s original poem. This may seem like a low bar. It’s not.  Over the years, it has proven oddly difficult for contemporary filmmakers to adapt this thrilling epic without distorting it, emptying it of its charm, or offering a modern “take.”   It is true that life is complicated. It is also true that there are such things as right and wrong.  The best artists are able to acknowledge and show both of these truths at once. Spencer Klavan The Free Press 17 July 2026 https://www.thefp.com/p/there-is-good-and-evil-christopher  Det fel som kollaboratörerna begick, säger Jean-Paul Sartre i en berömd och tänkvärd uppsats från 1945, bestod inte så mycket i att de sympatiserade med de tyska ockupanterna, utan snarare i att de betraktade kampens utgång som given. http...
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20 juli. US Strikes Iran. Bill Dudley, US inflation and financial conditions. Stockholm stängde svagt nedåt.

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  US Strikes Iran in Escalating Campaign The US conducted a wave of strikes on Iranian command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks to "further diminish" Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners. The conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, with Brent crude rising almost 4% to trade above $90 a barrel, and has resulted in significant material losses and injuries in Kuwait, as well as damage to vital institutions. Bloomberg 19 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-19/us-iran-trade-more-attacks-after-two-troops-killed-in-jordan Enligt Irans president Masoud Pezeshkian är Iran nu involverat i ett ”fullskaligt krig” mot USA, skriver AFP. Uttalandet från presidenten kommer efter rapporter om nya amerikanska attacker under måndagen. DI/TT 20 juli 2026, 19:39 https://www.di.se/nyheter/trump-vedergallning-for-varje-dodad-amerikan/ De tre ledande amerikanska börsindexen öppnade dag...
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19 juli. Börsen vände upp när marknaden trodde det skulle bli fred snart.

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  The US and Iran engaged in another wave of tit-for-tat attacks, with US forces hitting Qeshm Island and southern cities in Iran, and Iran retaliating with drone strikes targeting US forces in Kuwait. The US embassy in Jordan said the airport and sea port at Aqaba had been evacuated due to a "specific and credible threat", but Jordanian authorities denied this and said operations continued as normal. The targeting of civilian infrastructure, including bridges, utilities and port facilities, has expanded beyond strictly military targets, with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar expressing concern over the latest escalation. Bloomberg 19 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-19/us-iran-trade-more-attacks-after-two-troops-killed-in-jordan US troop deaths raise fears of a wider war as Iran hit by new strikes Jordanian airport and seaport were evacuated due to a 'specific threat,' as Kuwait and Bahrain intercept Iranian attacks. CNN 19 Jul...
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Martin Wolf; The next crash - Why this time might not be different

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Stock markets are not only ignoring the obvious threats, but seem imbued with extreme optimism. In the autumn of 1929, Irving Fisher, one of the greatest American economists, stated: “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”  This turned out to be one of the most incorrect forecasts ever made: in short order, US and global stock markets were hit by the Great Crash, which was followed by the Great Depression. Maybe markets were in some sense “right” before the crash and wrong after it. But who cared? For investors and the hundreds of millions of people across the world whose lives were upended by the disaster, the gods of the stock market had failed for a generation. Why might this story be relevant today? The answer is that the valuation of US stocks is even higher today than in September 1929.  The first global financial crisis after the disaster of the 1930s in 2007-09: the easy monetary — and relaxed regulatory — policies adopted after the stoc...
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Populism Is Diversifying, Why Populism Ends in Disaster

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Populists are in power, either in control or playing a supporting role in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden; they are on the march in Latin America.  Even more importantly they have forced established politicians to discuss subjects once deemed out of bounds, such as immigration, national identity, and social disintegration. In France, the National Rally (NR) is the largest party of the National Assembly and runs swathes of the south and industrial north.   The French magazine Le Nouvel Obs warned its progressive readers that Jordan Bardella was particularly dangerous because he appeared to be “a new man, clean and smooth.” He grew up in the suburbs, the child of Italian immigrants; has two million followers on TikTok and 800,000 on Instagram Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News has been putting a populist spin on the news since 1996. Populism is evolving, splitting into new subspecies, or forming alliances with other lifeforms. The essence of populis...
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St. Barthélemy

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  David Rockefeller found the perfect spot to build a beach house on the shores of St. Barthélemy in 1957 and bought about 140 acres, kicking off a boom that has yet to slow down. Michael Gross Treasured Island: The Story of St. Barth and Its Barbarians, Billionaires, and Beauties (Harper). https://www.harpercollins.com/products/treasured-island-michael-gross?variant=44324148248610 The island was soon developed with hotels, restaurants, and residential parcels, and became a popular destination for celebrities Bloomberg 16 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/the-st-barts-famous-party-scene-undercuts-island-s-rockefeller-origins Saint Barth: Jetset, det vackra folket och pengarna - Jetsetfolket kommer för övrigt i sandaler och shorts till de fina restauranger, eller in i raden av lyxbutiker i Gustavia, som får Biblioteksgatan i Stockholm att framstå som Ullared.  Här bär man inga synliga märken på märkeskläderna. Den som vet, vet. https://englundmacro.bl...
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The Toba catastrophe hypothesis; fewer than 10,000 individual people living on Earth

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The Toba catastrophe hypothesis was one prominent school of thought for many years. It proposes that the Toba supereruption caused a global cooling event that lasted up to six years.  Its effects, according to the hypothesis, caused human population sizes to plummet to fewer than 10,000 individual people living on Earth. The Conversation. "A supervolcano nearly wiped out humanity 74,000 years ago, but humans did something incredible." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 11 May 2026. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/05/260510234711.htm
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17 juli. Georg Orwell, Fotboll, Sara Skyttedal, Deepseek 2.0 - Bostäder 2000 miljarder ska ärvas. Closer nuclear cooperation. 12324USMC.

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Chipfrossan förvärrades under fredagen. Halvledarsektorn gör därmed sin sämsta vecka på över ett år.  S&P 500 backade 1 procent, Dow Jones 0,8 procent och Nasdaq handlades ned 1,4 procent. ”Frågan nu är om detta kommer att bli ännu ett tillfälle att ’köpa dippen’, eller om försäljningstakten accelererar när alla samtidigt rusar mot utgångarna”, säger David Morrison. https://www.di.se/live/usa-stanger-pa-rott/ Vändpunkten 31 mars 2026 "Snart blir det fred" https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/vandpunkten-31-mars-2026.html Merz, Macron plan closer nuclear cooperation Germany is expected to soon take part in a nuclear drill with France, Germany's Merz said after meeting France's Macron.  Deutsche Welle 17 jui 2026 https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-merz-macron-plan-closer-nuclear-cooperation/live-77998510 The U.S. and Iran Creep Toward a Wider War With Escalating Attacks. Strikes on more sensitive targets across the Persian Gulf risk setting off a spiral as neit...
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Deepseek 2.0 skakar Wall Street

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Bloomberg beskriver fredagen som ett nytt "Deepseek-ögonblick”. Den kinesiska AI-startupen Moonshots nya Kimi K3-modell. Artificial Analysis, som jämför AI-modeller, placerar K3 före Anthropics premiummodell Opus 4.8 inom vissa ledande testområden, skriver Bloomberg. Gavekal Capital-förvaltaren Leonid Mironov håller med analysföretaget. DI  17 juli 2026, 16:17 https://www.di.se/live/deepseek-20-skakar-wall-street/ Chips Stocks Tumble Into Bear Market  A surprise breakthrough from Chinese AI startup Moonshot has driven the selloff, with investors likening the decline to the market shock unleashed by DeepSeek’s breakthrough last year. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-17/chips-stocks-tumble-into-bear-market-as-105-ai-rally-fizzles Wall Street tech stocks head for $1tn sell-off; DeepSeek Financial Times 27 January 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/wall-street-tech-stocks-head-for-1tn.html DeepSeek Chief’s Journey From Math Geek to Global Disruptor https...
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Georg Orwell, fotboll, 1984, Oceania, Eurasia, East Asia

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  In late 1945, as the Iron Curtain was falling across Europe, a Soviet club played several British teams on a goodwill mission.  George Orwell was unimpressed. In his essay The Sporting Spirit, he argued that sport was “an unfailing cause of ill-will.” -  Even if one didn’t know from concrete examples (the 1936 Olympic Games, for instance) that international sporting contests lead to orgies of hatred one could deduce it from general principles… The significant thing is not the behaviour of the players but the attitude of the spectators: and, behind the spectators, of the nations who work themselves into furies over these absurd contests, and seriously believe — at any rate for short periods — that running, jumping and kicking a ball are tests of national virtue. Writing when the World Cup was still a small tournament that the British teams didn’t bother to enter, he warned that you couldn’t do better to “add to the vast fund of ill-will” in the world “than by a series of...
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