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Kan USA och Iran komma överens om en varaktig överenskommelse för att avsluta kriget? Can the US and Iran Agree to a Lasting Deal to End the War? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-22/iran-us-peace-deal-faces-hormuz-nuclear-hurdles-as-trump-extends-ceasefire

  Högsta Domstolen ersättning till Bonnesen för rättegångskostnader. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/hogsta-domstolen-ersattning-till.html EU:s miljardlån till Ukraina klart 90 miljarder euro - 969 miljarder kr https://www.svd.se/a/y5leRK/eu-s-miljardlan-till-ukraina-kan-komma-redan-i-slutet-av-maj Genom von der Leyens fiffiga metod behöver pengarna inte tas via medlemsländernas budgetar. Gemensam upplåning är metoden, en metod som Sverige länge varit emot, men sedan enhälligt och helhjätat yrkat bifall till. Von der Leyen försöker genom att be för sin sjuka mor Ukraina skapa ett prejudikat för denna finansieringsmetod, som Sverige och andra länder varit emot. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/hungarians-sweep-away-orban-unlocks-20.html Ukraine says it has resumed pumping Russian oil through a pipeline into Hungary and Slovakia, bringing to an end months of deadlock over a €90bn (£78bn) loan seen as vital European Union support for Kyiv. Soon afterwards, EU ambass...

Hans Bergströms memoarbok bejakar en åsikt som återfinns i de flesta politiska läger: att det var bättre förr. Han föddes den 13 maj 1948, på 70-talet försökte styra ungliberalerna vänsterut,  finansierar opinionsbildare till höger. Ett samhälle som 50-talets Ambjörby existerar väl knappast längre. Orten hade runt 500 invånare, men där fanns enligt Bergström fotbollslag, Konsum, slakteri, kontor för Wermlandsbanken och Sparbanken, tandläkarmottagning, postkontor, telegrafstation, två kaféer och ”ett ypperligt bageri”,  Det förlorade Sverige, om jag ska försöka sätta fingret på det, kunde bli verklighet en kort stund för att vissa tendenser som på sikt inte kunde samexistera ett tag hamnade i jämvikt.  Rekordåren var på väg; fattigdomen utplånades. Staten var tillräckligt utbyggd för att garantera grundtrygghet, men hade inte börjat detaljreglera. Människorna hade ännu egna minnen av verkligt svåra tider; det rent privatpersonliga sociala skyddsnät som hade varit livsnödvä...

Hosted by FT columnist Gillian Tett and FT Alphaville editor Robin Wigglesworth, The Story of Money explores the history of global finance through the people, ideas, events, and institutions that have shaped it. New episodes will be released weekly on Wednesdays from 22 April. Watch, listen and subscribe for free on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Financial Times 22 April 2026 https://www.ft.com/tsom?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Gillian Tett - en av mina Gurus https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/07/gillian-tett-en-av-mina-gurus.html

Högsta domstolen ändrar hovrättens domslut beträffande rättegångskostnader  på så sätt att   B.B. ska få ersättning av allmänna medel för rättegångskostnader i tingsrätten med 9 276 725 kr och 4 585,28 euro. Av beloppet avser 7 409 500 kr ombudsarvode samt rättegångskostnader i hovrätten med 3 181 383 kr. Av beloppet avser 2 513 000 kr ombudsarvode, 32 107 kr utlägg och 636 276 kr mervärdesskatt. B.B. ska få ersättning av allmänna medel för sina rättegångskostnader i Högsta domstolen med 1 203 335 kr. Av beloppet avser 962 500 kr ombudsarvode, 168 kr utlägg och 240 667 kr mervärdesskatt. https://rattspraxis.etjanst.domstol.se/sok/publicering/82021bc1-7d3a-4804-a154-b6e8d13b9cd6?domstolskod=HDO   21 april. Birgitte Bonnesen frias av Högsta domstolen. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/21-april-birgitte-bonnesen-frias-av.html

Nyheten att vicepresident JD Vance inte skulle flyga tillbaka till Pakistan för förnyade fredssamtal med Iran, strax innan vapenvilan skulle löpa ut, kom bara minuter före slutet av tisdagens handel på Wall Street.   Börsens reaktion: ”Jag bryr mig inte.”   En rörig kompromiss där Iran tar ut avgifter från fartyg som passerar genom sundet och livet i övrigt fortsätter som vanligt skulle inte vara bra, och knappast en rimlig utdelning på Washingtons beslut att gå i krig,   men kapitalmarknaderna skulle kunna leva med det — ungefär som de har levt med konflikten i Ukraina.  Världen är ändå på väg att avglobaliseras.   För det andra: det som marknaderna verkligen inte skulle tåla vore en upptrappning med en amerikansk markoperation och iranska attacker mot energiinfrastruktur i Gulfen. Det vore en katastrof.   Övertygade om att detta innebär att någon upptrappning inte kommer att ske, har aktier fått utrymme att stiga kraftigt (även ut...

Equities wiped out an advance that had earlier put the S&P 500 on pace for a record.  Brent hovered near $98. Treasury yields rose alongside the dollar. President Donald Trump said Tehran had “no choice” but to send a delegation to Pakistan.  The US is “ready to go” with a resumption of bombing if a breakthrough isn’t reached, he told CNBC.  Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran would not “accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.” Bloomberg 21 April 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/-stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates Niall Ferguson: Markets are trading like the war is over I asked why the outbreak of World War I—an event traditionally seen as having been heralded by a series of international crises—was not apparently anticipated by investors. To investors such as the Rothschilds—supposedly the best-informed people in the world at that time, as their Wall Street counterparts are today—World War I truly came as a bolt ...

It’s a source of some confusion (to me, at least) that the Iran war, the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the resulting impact on the energy market, have been greeted with general equanimity by global equity markets. But I suspect it’s mostly down to this: these days, markets need proof.  “Buy the dip” is often parodied as a kneejerk reaction from mindless traders.  But since around about 2009, it has been the correct response to every drop in the market.  Every scare has been a buying opportunity, and the people who bought have made money. You can hardly blame investors for their caution. I mean, a war in the Middle East is a big deal but so was a war in Europe (which is, of course, still ongoing), and a global pandemic was bigger than either of them, and the correct financial answer was still “just hold your nose, and keep buying.” John Stepek Bloomberg April 21, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-21/markets-are-forward-looking-bu...

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Yet markets are trading like the war is over. The wisdom of crowds? Or delusion? Plans have been published for a giant, gold-bedecked victory arch that has already been nicknamed the Arc de Trump. From all of this it might reasonably be inferred that the “Seven Weeks’ War” has concluded.   How are we to make sense of this? Since the war began, I have written essays warning of 1) the danger that the conflict goes global, 2) the risk of recession if the conflict is protracted, and 3) the nightmare that this is the American version of the 1956 Suez Crisis.  Either Wall Street has canceled all its subscriptions to The Free Press, or I am missing something. I can offer three possible explanations 3. Mr. Market is as clueless as he was in July 1914, September 1929, December 1972, August 2000, October 2007, and February 2020—all months when stocks reached highs shortly before reality struck devastating blows. Where we go from here is fairly p...

Det handlar om en privat aktieförmögenhet som har vuxit till omkring 10 000 miljarder kronor. Kanske går det att tala om ett finansiellt folkhem. – Det finns en röd tråd tycker jag, att svenska folket är beredda att ta mer risker. Det gäller inte bara på aktiesidan, det gäller att man har en stor andel lån med rörlig ränta också, säger han. – Anledningen är kanske att man har haft så goda erfarenheter av börsen över tid.  Felicia Åkerman, Carl Johan von Seth och Maria Westholm DN 21 april 2026 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/sa-forandrade-borsrevolutionen-din-och-hela-sveriges-ekonomi/ 21 april https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/21-april-birgitte-bonnesen-frias-av.html

Wall Street surnade till Wall Street avslutade nedåt när marknaden spänt väntade på besked om fredssamtalen mellan  USA och Iran blir av eller inte.  Brentoljan steg samtidigt över 100 dollar fatet. https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-surnade-till-apple-pressades-av-vd-bytet/ Stockholmsbörsen surnade till  Fortsatt råder osäkerhet om fredssamtalen mellan USA och Iran kommer att bli av. Under onsdagen löper det nuvarande avtalet om vapenvila ut mellan USA och Iran https://www.di.se/live/stockholmsborsen-surnade-till-skf-rapportfoll/ Markets need the bears to prove their point Buy the dip” is often parodied as a kneejerk reaction from mindless traders. But since around about 2009, it has been the correct response to every drop in the market.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/markets-need-bears-to-prove-their-point.html ”Högsta domstolen ändrar hovrättens dom i ansvarsdelen och frikänner Birgitte Bonnesen från åtalet i sin helhet och befriar henne från skyldighe...

Michael Bär great-grandson of Julius Baer’s founder grew up during the heyday of Swiss private banking “Section 311 is not used a lot but when it is, it is the kiss of death,” said Tom Keatinge, director of the Centre for Financial Crime and Security at the Royal United Services Institute.  US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent in February said: “MBaer has funnelled over a hundred million dollars through the US financial system on behalf of illicit actors tied to Iran and Russia.” The bank’s downfall cuts against Switzerland’s more than decade-long campaign to clean up its financial sector after the scandals of the banking-secrecy era. Critics say it also raises questions about whether Swiss authorities moved quickly enough given the scale of risks that later emerged. Financial Times 21 April 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/861bbb39-9cdb-4e80-933a-46b0d7104e5e?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Köer utanför banker i Schweiz  - lika osannolikt som att Swissair skulle stanna på marken av pengabrist h...

The war in Iran has brought home, yet again, the sharp choice that Europeans face in a new great power conflict between the US and China. Should Europe side with the guys who decided to start a war of choice that threatens to wreak havoc on the global economy?   Hm   President Trump made the case for going to war with Iran Or get into bed with a country that will eventually destroy its industrial base? It’s not an easy choice. Finally, and belatedly, Europe is coming to terms with the intractable reality of Chinese mercantilism . Unless that happens, the world will have only two options — control by American oligarchs or Chinese mercantilists. Rana Foroohar Financial Times 19 April 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/e4c9ee6e-5db5-436f-9b14-a625b9a77145?syn-25a6b1a6=1 15 years on from the great financial crisis, there’s still plenty of risk in the market. Rana Foroohar is Global Business Columnist and an Associate Editor at the Financial Times. Rana Foroohar FT 25 September 2...

Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warns U.S. needs an emergency ‘break-the-glass’ plan if Treasury demand collapses The plan should be ‘ready to go’ for ‘when we hit the wall,’ Paulson said. Paulson’s warning comes as investors grow increasingly concerned about the waning appeal of U.S. Treasury debt. Persistent deficits, heavy debt issuance and inflation worries have weighed on longer-term government bonds recently. Paulson said a crisis in the Treasury market would differ in a crucial way from the 2008 financial meltdown, when the U.S. government still had enough fiscal capacity to step in and contain the damage.  This time, instead of centering around the private sector, a Treasury crisis could hamper the government’s ability to finance itself. In 2008, “as bad as it was,” the government had fiscal firepower to address the credit meltdown,”   In a statement Thursday night, the Paulson Institute clarified  that Paulson was “clear that his concerns about the ...

The last word on what terms to accept does not rest with the men the US is negotiating with — Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi — or even with a supreme leader.  It is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals in control of the nation’s missiles and security forces who call the shots. The base-case scenario for this war remains that somehow, surely, the two sides will find a way back to the negotiating table and a settlement, because both have so much to lose and so little to gain should the war resume in earnest. That would be a safe bet in a world of logic. But in our current “real” world — the one dominated by an interplay of Trumpian and IRGC fantasies of victory — a return to war looks all too possible. Marc Champion Bloomberg April 20, 2026 at 6:00  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-20/iran-war-logic-demands-an-iran-deal-will-trump-s-fantasies-allow-one 20 april 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/202...

On Friday, while markets were still open, the Iranian leadership announced that the Strait of Hormuz was open, while the US declared that Iran was surrendering all its nuclear material.  Over the weekend, we learned that these things weren’t strictly true.  The flow of tankers through the waterway fell virtually to nothing a week into the conflict.  As oil traders point out, the effects wouldn’t yet be evident in much of the world, as it typically takes a tanker about six weeks to get from the Strait to New York and almost a month to reach Shanghai. Companies keep inventories of oil.  The problem is yet to make itself felt with full force If Monday is a down day for the S&P 500, it will be only the second since the rally ignited on March 31, catalyzed at the time by a comment from Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian that the country was ready to end the war but “needed guarantees.” In the subsequent 14 trading days, the S&P rose 12.33%, marking only the fifth ...