Englund

  31 mars Irans president uppges vara beredd att avsluta kriget https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/stockholm-och-new-york-31-mars-trump.html

Vändpunkten 31 mars 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/vandpunkten-31-mars-2026.html Nasdaq stod för en imponerande återhämtning när Wall Street  avslutade onsdagen med blandade index.  https://www.di.se/live/viss-aterhamtning-pa-blandat-wall-street/ Under natten har har USA genomfört över 80 attacker mot mål i Iran. Lugn börsöppning väntas. DI 8 juli 2026, 06:55 https://www.di.se/live/morgonkoll-lugn-borsoppning-vantas-trots-eskalering-i-mellanostern/ Trots tisdagens AI-oro ser flera bedömare ingen anledning till bred börsoro. I stället pekar man på en sund sektorrotation https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/trots-tisdagens-ai-oro-ser-flera.html DI 8 juli 2026, 09:13 https://www.di.se/live/sur-oppning-efter-attackerna-avanza-pressas/ Trump: För mig är vapenvilan över. Han kallade Iran ”onda, sjuka människor” och menade att vapenvilan med Iran nu är över, rapporterar CNN. Stockholmsbörsen faller och oljepriset stiger. DI 8 juli 2026, 10:42 https://www.di.se/li...

”Jag tror att det handlar mer om en rotation, och det är därför volatiliteten på indexnivå fortsätter att vara ganska dämpad”,  DI 7 juli 2026 20:41 https://www.di.se/live/experter-rotationen-bort-fran-ai-vinnare-kan-fortsatta/ RE: Ingen fara - Fattas bara RE: Det är inte så lätt att rotera. Av någon anledning köps det varje dag exakt lika många aktier som det säljs.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/rotera.html Rotation is different from contagion or crashes; it’s capital moving, not disappearing. https://www.investopedia.com/answers?q=rotation RE: Men nog måste en del kapital försvinna när det totala Market Cap minskar.  The Nasdaq-100's Market Cap decline from the peak A rough estimate of: ~$1.1–1.3 trillion lost since the June 3, 2026 all-time high. According to Claude 8 July 2026

  The US trade deficit in May Exports fell 3.2%. Imports rose 3.3% https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-07/us-trade-deficit-widens-to-biggest-in-more-than-a-year US Trade deficit https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/us-trade-deficit.html

Panmure Liberum analysts said the S&P 500 is valued at 41 times earnings under the Shiller CAPE ratio, near the record high of the dot-com era. BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin warned that once an earnings bubble peaks, stocks could fall between 30% and 50%. If you ask a bull to list three reasons why stocks aren’t in a bubble right now, they’re bound to bring up the forward price-to-earnings ratio. Analysts like to compare the price of a stock with the amount of earnings per share the company is expected to earn over the next 12 months.  While stock prices have soared lately, Wall Street earnings estimates have been rising even more quickly. If one were to adjust recent earnings to account for a more normal pace of growth, the Shiller CAPE ratio would swell to 67.6, or 4.6 standard deviations above the long-term trend.  This would surpass the peak of every other asset bubble in U.S. history, the analysts wrote. Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch 6 July 2026 https://ww...

The world only embarked on the experiment of fiat currencies when US President Richard Nixon took the dollar off gold in 1971. The so-called Bretton Woods 2.0 system was not planned in Washington. It was adopted in the late 1990s as a form of self-insurance by emerging markets seeking protection against the risks of financial crisis. Above all it was China that pegged its exchange rate and began large-scale official reserve accumulation in the 2000s. This conferred on the US the exorbitant privilege of stable, official funding of twin deficits — on current account and in government budgets.   Around 2015,the accumulation of new reserves plateaued. And yet America’s twin deficits continue.  But how are they funded, if not through official reserve accumulation? In part through off-the-books holding of reserves on the balance sheets of China’s state banks and, above all, through private foreign investors acquiring US assets. America’s deficits are financed by inflows from Eu...

While scientists have long braced for climate change, the growing severity of its impacts is shocking them. Everyone is shocked. Like the Police Chief in Casablanca.  “Far from being self-stabilizing, the Earth’s climate system is an ornery beast which overreacts even to small nudges,” wrote the late Wallace Broecker in 1995, two decades after he coined the term “global warming.” As the global average temperature rises gradually, changes on the ground can be abrupt and dramatic, hurting people and damaging property. Especially during El Niño weather phases, one of which began in June and is set to bring months of misbehaving weather. Weather emergencies are local: No one experiences heat or rain as a global average.  Insurers, bankers, emergency responders, infrastructure managers, homeowners, beachgoers — all need to know which plausibly bad or worst-case scenarios to plan for, where.   Solar is the fastest-growing power source worldwide, making up 75% of new demand...

Oljepriserna stoppade återhämtning på Wall Street Wall Street var på väg mot en stark återhämtning efter att minnes- och halvledarbolag pressat USA-börserna i början av tisdagen. Men rusande oljepriser grusade hoppet och indexen föll tillbaka. En annan förklaring kan vara Reuters artikel om att kinesiska Deepsek utvecklar ett eget AI-chip, vilket skulle vara en nackdel för Samsung och Nvidia. https://www.di.se/live/oljepriserna-stoppade-aterhamtning-pa-wall-street/ Trots tisdagens AI-oro ser flera bedömare ingen anledning till bred börsoro. I stället pekar man på en sund sektorrotation https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/trots-tisdagens-ai-oro-ser-flera.html Here are some of the biggest recent decliners 21.00: Intel (INTC): Down 11% Applied Materials (AMAT): Down 8% Western Digital (WDC): Down 8% Marvell Technology (MRVL): Down 9% Micron Technology (MU): Down 7% KLA (KLAC): Down 8% Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Down 6% CoreWeave (CRWV): Down 5% ARM Holdings (ARM): Down 7% Texas I...

The driver of Spain's growth is population growth via immigrant labor, with about 80% of Spanish job growth since 2022 down to the increase in foreign-born hires, with measures such as mass regularization granting residency permits to more than 1 million undocumented arrivals. RE: De flesta kommer från Latinamerika och behöver inte gå på kursen Spanska för invandrare. The other boon is tourism, which accounts for almost 13% of the economy Spain’s population has jumped to almost 50 million from 36 million a half century ago. This means more workers, more spending and more tax receipts. Spanish GDP has grown less impressively on a per-capita basis than in aggregate, enough to overtake Japan’s but still firmly behind Korea’s. On a per-hour-worked basis, there’s a persistent gap with Germany, the Netherlands and the Nordic countries. Lionel Laurent Bloomberg 6 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-06/how-spain-outgrew-south-korea

Germany to borrow €800bn for rearmament in historic shift. Germany’s defence budget is set to reach €109bn next year. Berlin also plans to provide €11.6bn in military aid to Ukraine next year. After Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) won last year’s election, Berlin amended the country’s constitutional debt brake to exempt defence spending. The borrowing plans have proved contentious, including within the CDU, which long championed the so-called Schwarze Null — the balanced-budget doctrine associated with the late finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. Financial Times 6 July 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/2ceb7472-a7bc-447e-a037-7925f037b9b5?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Germany scraps plans to build its biggest warship since second world war. Shares in defence group Rheinmetall tumble as Berlin ditches F126 frigate programme after cost overruns and delays https://www.ft.com/content/2ceb7472-a7bc-447e-a037-7925f037b9b5?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Berlin set to buy 40% stake in Franco-German tank maker KNDS https://en...

  The dollar dominance. Exorbitant privilege. “Mercury” and “Mars”.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-conversation-around-dollar.html Allra mest steg flera AI-relaterade bolag efter att ha rasat i slutet på förra veckan. https://www.di.se/live/gron-stangning-pa-wall-street-ai-bolagen-rekylerar/ Stockholmsbörsen stängde nedåt.  Saab fortsatte uppåt medan   Sivers och Mips båda föll tvåsiffrigt. https://www.di.se/live/rod-stangning-pa-stockholmsborsen-wDPjX/ Germany to borrow - 800 miljarder, euro - for rearmament in historic shift. Ditches frigate programme. Schwarze Null. Stabilitetspakten. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/germany-to-borrow-800bn-for-rearmament.html Spanish GDP on a per-capita basis, enough to overtake Japan’s but still firmly behind Korea’s. Spain’s population has jumped to almost 50 million from 36 million a half century ago.   https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/spanish-gdp-on-per-capita-basis-enough.html ...

In a 2017 paper, Eichengreen and colleagues contrasted what they called the “Mercury” and “Mars” theories of international currencies, so named for the Roman gods of commerce and war.  In the near-decade since that paper was published, Mars-style explanations of the dollar are ascendant. The Roman denarius, for example, spread — as we would say now — at the barrel of a gun. “Roman money was used to pay Roman soldiers,” writes Eichengreen. “It traveled with Roman armies.  Dollar dominance is “late middle-aged,” writes Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff  Walter Frick Bloomberg 2 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-02/can-the-us-dollar-remain-the-world-s-reserve-currency In the first Century, a merchant setting off from Rome on a journey to Cologne was able to pay his bills with the same coin, the denarius, over his entire journey. Initially, Rome safeguarded cohesion of its large empire by fire and sword, then increasingly by placing even the most remote...

A Gallup survey last fall found that 66% of Democrats view socialism favorably and only 42% say the same of capitalism. American wealth is concentrated at the top. On this narrow point, the socialists are correct.  The top 1% now holds roughly 30% of the nation’s net worth, and the bottom half holds about 2.5%. But the greatest driver of inequality over the past five years was exactly what the socialists now demand more of: large-scale government spending. When Washington floods the economy with borrowed and freshly printed dollars, the money flows first into assets owned by the wealthiest Americans—stocks, bonds, real estate.  The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero and more than doubled its balance sheet, from about $4 trillion to nearly $9 trillion. As big government pumped money into the economy, assets boomed: The stock market has roughly tripled from its March 2020 low.  The wealthiest 10% of households own 89% of all stocks, according to 2021 Federal Reserve...

Iran's new regime is very different. When US President Donald Trump signed a ceasefire agreement with Iran during dinner at the Palace of Versailles last month. The 1919 treaty reshaped Europe, but its demands for huge reparations left an angry and embittered Germany and helped to set the stage for another global conflagration just 20 years later. Spegelsalen i Versailles den 18 januari 1871, när Vilhelm I utropas till tysk kejsare efter segern i fransk-tyska kriget. Dumt nog hade Napoleon III förklarat krig och förlorat. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/spegelsalen-i-versailles-den-18-januari.html Might the Iran deal, different in so many ways, nevertheless come to be seen as similarly fateful? The US and Israel may have sent many of the country's former leaders to early graves, but have they been replaced by even more formidable foes? Two key figures, the parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the commander-in-chief of the Revolutiona...

I dag hittade jag ånyo något på min blogg/site när jag letade efter något annat. Lars Gustafsson och kommunismen - När Jan Myrdal och jag diskuterade, år 1973 i "Den onödiga samtiden", hade jag ännu inte alls klart för mig den oerhörda omfattningen av Sovjetkommunismens och de andra kommunismernas brott, deras fundamentalt destruktiga karaktär." https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2010/09/lars-gustafsson-och-kommunismen.html 1972 var det 11 år efter Murens byggande och 19 år efter Stalins död.  Det var 36 år sedan Moskva-rättegångarna. https://www.internetional.se/rummel72.htm Det var 32 år efter Darkness at Noon, Novel by Arthur Koestler, published in 1940. The action is set during Stalin's purge trials of the 1930s and concerns Nicholas Rubashov, an old-guard Bolshevik who at first denies, then confesses to, crimes that he has not committed.  Reflecting Koestler's own disenchantment with communism, the plot examines the dilemma of an aging revolutionary who can n...