Ovanligt varmt havsvatten i Atlanten, stark västafrikansk monsun och ingen El Niño orkan

Vattnet i den tropiska Atlanten är alltid varmt relativt sett, men precis som det mesta så varierar även det över tid.

Den här variationen kallas för den atlantiska multidekadala oscillationen, AMO, och består av en varm och en kall fas. 

Dessa faser kännetecknas av 20-40 åriga perioder där vattentemperaturen i Atlanten oftare är varmare respektive kallare. 

Sedan mitten på 1990-talet (ungefär från 1995) befinner sig Atlanten i en varm fas av AMO. 


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How Jean-Claude Juncker's grand plan for the EU was first laid out 84 years ago

In a book called The United States of Europe. It was written by a close ally of Jean Monnet

By the Fifties, Monnet realised that their dream could not be realised overnight. It should, therefore, be assembled stealthily, bit by bit, without for a long time declaring its real goal.

And they should begin by pretending that it was just an economic arrangement, a “Common Market”

Which was why, when Richard North and I first unearthed this story, we called our book The Great Deception.


Christopher Booker, Telegraph 17 September 2017

The Supranational Politics of Jean Monnet: Ideas and Origins of the European Community by Frederic J. Fransen

Most work on Monnet's contribution begins with his later presence as an elder statesman of the European movement and reads his later pronouncements back into his earlier work.

This book takes the opposite approach and, by concentrating on his earlier work, is able to show a more complicated picture of Monnet's aspirations than has been presented to date.

Read more here

Fotnot:

2017 - 84 = 1933

Lots of people were supposed to prevent the financial crisis.

But while a few warned about the dangers in real time, most policymakers, risk managers, and academics failed in their responsibility to protect the rest of us.

Matthew C Klein, FT 13 September 2017

How the dollar’s weakness is the rest of the world’s problem, El-Erian

Forex markets pose a threat to a synchronised recovery needed to validate stock prices

Mohamed El-Erian, FT 13 September 2017

Some cling to the notion that stimulus is unhelpful, risky and hard. Such views need updating. The Ecnonomist

Economists of all stripes argued that the “multiplier” on stimulus—the amount by which a dollar of borrowing raises GDP—is usually low. Households save their higher incomes in expectation of offsetting future tax rises

But studies since the Great Recession tend to find that multipliers are substantially higher than once thought, particularly when monetary policy is constrained. 

Multipliers in such cases are often closer to two, ie, GDP increases by nearly twice the size of the stimulus.

The Economist, 7 September 2017

Comment by Rolf Englund: 

If the marginal tax rate is 50 per cent we have a Free Lunch.

On Sept 16 1992, the UK was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)

membership of which had been the cornerstone of the John Major government’s economic policy, which now lay in tatters.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/10/ignore-naysayers-competitive-pound-positive-economy/


Men den svenska regeringen, med Bildt, Unckel, Alf Svensson och Ulf Dinkelspiel, följde inte England. 

Däremot lånade Ulf Dinkelspiels fondfirma, Öhmans, dagen efter, 750 miljoner kronor av Riksbanken, till en ränta om 34 % medan andra fondkommissionärer samtidigt fick betala 500 % ränta för motsvarande typ av lån.

Konstitutionsutskottets betänkande 1994/95:KU30

A slowing down of the jet stream contributed to Harvey’s lingering destruction.

Charles Greene, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University, believes that warming in the Arctic led to a slowing down of a high-altitude, circulating wind known as the jet stream, which he argues contributed to Harvey’s lingering destruction. 

If that turns out to be the case, it portends more such events to come. 

He suspects recent droughts in the western United States may have been exacerbated by the same phenomenon, as a more sluggish jet stream allowed masses of dry air to get locked into place.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-08/another-way-climate-change-might-make-hurricanes-worse

Väderkartan är konstig (inte som den var förr)

Englund 5 oktober 2010

BBC och Englund om Jet Stream och vädret

https://englundmacro.blogspot.se/2014/02/bbc-och-englund-om-jet-stream-och-vadret.html

U.S. trade deficit shows no sign of shrinking

The trade gap in goods with China increased to $33.6 billion in July

MarketWatch 6 Sept 2017