Englund

In the Strait of Hormuz, tankers have been burning, along with what remains of the post-1945 American-led order. Meanwhile, the IMF’s new baseline forecast for global growth this year is exactly the same as it was six months ago and stock prices have gone up.   In the cold war, political crises over Cuba or Berlin had little economic relevance. Today, globalisation means that about 50 per cent of all trade and capital flows pass through places or sea lanes with high military tensions, from the Baltic Sea to Taiwan. That means there is widespread exposure to low-probability but severe events.  During the 1990s and 2000s, inflation was low and converging across the world. In the past five years, US consumer prices have risen by a cumulative 25 per cent. Patrick Foulis FT 24 April 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/c4669693-0c5b-4733-99f7-173f18cfa843 The writer is an FT contributing editor, a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, and author of a forthcoming book on global...

The global backlash against neoliberalism has finally reached Brussels.  The European Union, which was born in 1993 and sired by the Maastricht Treaty, was a child of neoliberalism: the doctrine of market supremacy and government restraint that swept the world from the 1980s onward. Provided the Chinese did the manufacturing, the US paid for defense and the Russians provided the energy, the EU could afford both a generous welfare state and a green transition. The global backlash against neoliberalism has finally reached Brussels.  I spent last weekend engaged in a very EU activity — discussing the future of the organization with Euro-wonks in a delightful Tuscan village — and everybody seemed to agree about this epochal change.  Now Europhiles are more likely to quote Jacques Delors’ 1988 warning that “nobody falls in love with a common market.” The first is the reality that America is no longer a reliable ally.. Europeans realize that Trump is not an aberration but a sym...

Waiting for what comes next. Photographer: Sebastien Bozon/AFP/Getty Images The EU Is Moving on From Neoliberalism. “nobody falls in love with a common market.” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/the-eu-is-moving-on-from-neoliberalism.html Since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran in late February, Chinese satellite imagery of the conflict zone has proliferated—potentially offering battlefield guidance to Tehran and other U.S. adversaries. U.S. concerns about the use of such data in the Middle East grew after the Chinese artificial-intelligence company MizarVision claimed on social media to have  tracked the movements of American aircraft carriers, F-22 stealth fighters and B-52 bombers by using AI to analyze satellite data.  https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinese-satellites-over-mideast-battlefield-put-u-s-on-edge-39e0d305 Bloomberg; Swedbank CEO Birgitte Bonnesen - $230 billion in Russian-linked money https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/bloomberg-...

The first Treasury-Fed Accord, in 1951 (discussed here ), gave the Fed independence to set rates after years when they had been held low by the Treasury to help repay war debts. Fed $6.5 trillion balance sheet, a legacy of the bonds it purchased to bail out the financial system after the 2008-9 crisis and the pandemic.  Slowly and deliberatively, I believe we need a smaller central bank balance sheet, Warsh told Senators. The issue — as Powell discovered when he tried to shrink the balance sheet in 2018 — is that selling bonds into the open market pushes up yields directly, while sucking out liquidity.  It led to a big market selloff and a demeaning “Powell Pivot (a major shift in direction) toward cheaper rates. Any such shrinking will have to be avoid repeating 2018. A further issue is the dollar. Bessent has made clear that he wants lower bond yields and a weaker dollar.  Steven Blitz of TS Lombard: “Warsh will find that the reality of large and growing deficits, the n...

Fed will embrace geoeconomics. This is very notable — particularly given that, a day later, Bessent revealed that the United Arab Emirates and “numerous” other Gulf and Asian countries have asked the US government for dollar swap lines. Trump seems keen to comply. “If I could help them, I would,” he said. And this sends two big messages to markets. Some governments fear there is a real — and rising — risk that the Iran war will create financial instability.   The second message. Back during the global financial crisis of 2008, it was the New York Fed, under Timothy Geithner, that led efforts to calm markets.  Back then it used its own dollar swap lines, since the Fed has permanent arrangements to address short-term strains with five western central banks, and had temporary arrangements with nine more. Bessent is skilled at handling financial markets and has brought a market-savvy team to the Treasury. Bessent says he wants to use swaps to promote American dominance and re...

Says EU should bolster its own Article 42.7 mutual defence clause. He warned that Russia could attack an alliance member in “months”. Financial Times 24 april 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/1a5a2502-a45a-40c1-af6f-b30ecc34bacb?syn-25a6b1a6=1 EU to release €6.3 billion in aid to Poland - nu när Tusk, tidigare ordförande i Europeiska rådet, kommit till makten. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/vi-lever-i-en-forkrigstid-sager-klas.html 24 april https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/24-april-tett-carl-hamilton-camilla.html

I boken beskriver Carl Hamilton hur de svenska makthavarna lämnade medelvägen i början av 90-talet. Försvaret läggs ned, gränserna öppnas för världens mest omfattande asylinvandring, räntan höjs till 500 procent och skolan kollapsar.  Alla politiker var överens och alla varningar avvisades. Allt slutade i kaos. https://www.akademibokhandeln.se/bok/sanningen-om-sverige-hur-hamnade-vi-har/9789198935202 Kronkrigarna från valutafronten firar  Poltavaföreningen höll möte. De gamla frontkämparna från hösten -92 hade återsamlats för att fira tioårsdagen av kronfallet. Eftersom det skulle bli seminarium på hög akademisk nivå inledde kronförsvarets andlige fader, professor Tson Söderström, med att spika slutsatserna. Så att ingen osäkerhet skulle råda . – Det blev en mycket låg kostnad för kronförsvaret. Skadorna var ytterst begränsade. Vilket var vetenskapligt bevisat. Av honom själv. Carl A Hamilton Aftonbladet 22/11 2002 https://www.internetional.se/citatdennis.htm 24 april https://...

Regeringen om Hormuz https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/regeringen-om-hormuz.html En doft av stagflation. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/en-doft-av-stagflation.html Kan USA och Iran komma överens om en varaktig överenskommelse för att avsluta kriget? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/en-bra-fraga-usa-iran-experiment-med-ny.html Stockholmsbörsen i olika riktning – Saab draglok Den senaste månaden har fokus i första hand handlat om kriget i Mellanöstern där det för närvarande råder stiltje i fredsförhandlingarna mellan USA och Iran. https://www.di.se/live/stockholmsborsen-i-olika-riktning-saab-draglok/  Ingen fara Dip-buy-bara.  Ingen fara Dip-buy-bara. Snart kommer de nog, the Dipbuyers.   Nordsjöoljan Brent steg till nivåer kring 107 dollar  https://www.di.se/live/rod-stangning-pa-new-york-tesla-tappade-efter-rapport/ Niall Ferguson: Markets are trading like the war is over Twenty years ago, I published a scholarly article about the European...

Trump says US navy will ‘shoot and kill’ any boat laying mines in Strait of Hormuz https://www.ft.com/content/730f572b-edf7-4633-bdfd-1707f16d445b?syn-25a6b1a6=1 The conflict with Iran has entered a damaging new phase—a crippling limbo between war and peace that leaves the Strait of Hormuz closed and the prospect of escalation looming. Iranian forces attacked three cargo ships on Wednesday, said people familiar with the fighting. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy sought to keep Iran from exporting oil—the country’s main revenue source—or receiving supplies.  Arab mediators working to restart talks between the two sides said they feared the situation would deteriorate. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/air-war-in-iran-gives-way-to-crippling-stalemate-in-hormuz-4f083808 En bra fråga. Kan USA och Iran komma överens om en varaktig överenskommelse för att avsluta kriget? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/en-bra-fraga-usa-iran-experiment-med-ny.html Irankriget slår hårdare mot svensk ...

Kriget i Mellanöstern sänder en illavarslande doft från 1970-talet. Kombinationen av svag eller krympande ekonomisk aktivitet och stigande pristryck brukar kallas för stagflation  Om kriget tar slut och trafiken i Hormuzsundet återupptas lär läget förbättras ganska snabbt.  Men som det ser ut här och nu är 1970-talet tillbaka. Viktor Munkhammar 23 april 2026 https://www.di.se/analys/en-doft-av-stagflation/    Riksbankschef Erik Thedéen ser tendenser till stagflation och att Sverige redan gått mot den riktningen, säger han när han besöker 30 minuter. – Det allvarliga här är om vi skulle få en mer varaktig inflationsuppgång, säger han. SvT 23 april 2026 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/riksbankschefen-gar-i-riktning-mot-stagflation Plötsligt nämner Riksbanken S-ordet - Stagflation https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/plotsligt-namner-riksbanken-s-ordet.html Fed and other central banks have a decision to make.  Do they try and get back to 2% by making moneta...

Kan USA och Iran komma överens om en varaktig överenskommelse för att avsluta kriget? Can the US and Iran Agree to a Lasting Deal to End the War? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-22/iran-us-peace-deal-faces-hormuz-nuclear-hurdles-as-trump-extends-ceasefire

  Högsta Domstolen ersättning till Bonnesen för rättegångskostnader. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/hogsta-domstolen-ersattning-till.html EU:s miljardlån till Ukraina klart 90 miljarder euro - 969 miljarder kr https://www.svd.se/a/y5leRK/eu-s-miljardlan-till-ukraina-kan-komma-redan-i-slutet-av-maj Genom von der Leyens fiffiga metod behöver pengarna inte tas via medlemsländernas budgetar. Gemensam upplåning är metoden, en metod som Sverige länge varit emot, men sedan enhälligt och helhjätat yrkat bifall till. Von der Leyen försöker genom att be för sin sjuka mor Ukraina skapa ett prejudikat för denna finansieringsmetod, som Sverige och andra länder varit emot. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/hungarians-sweep-away-orban-unlocks-20.html Ukraine says it has resumed pumping Russian oil through a pipeline into Hungary and Slovakia, bringing to an end months of deadlock over a €90bn (£78bn) loan seen as vital European Union support for Kyiv. Soon afterwards, EU ambass...

Hans Bergströms memoarbok bejakar en åsikt som återfinns i de flesta politiska läger: att det var bättre förr. Han föddes den 13 maj 1948, på 70-talet försökte styra ungliberalerna vänsterut,  finansierar opinionsbildare till höger. Ett samhälle som 50-talets Ambjörby existerar väl knappast längre. Orten hade runt 500 invånare, men där fanns enligt Bergström fotbollslag, Konsum, slakteri, kontor för Wermlandsbanken och Sparbanken, tandläkarmottagning, postkontor, telegrafstation, två kaféer och ”ett ypperligt bageri”,  Det förlorade Sverige, om jag ska försöka sätta fingret på det, kunde bli verklighet en kort stund för att vissa tendenser som på sikt inte kunde samexistera ett tag hamnade i jämvikt.  Rekordåren var på väg; fattigdomen utplånades. Staten var tillräckligt utbyggd för att garantera grundtrygghet, men hade inte börjat detaljreglera. Människorna hade ännu egna minnen av verkligt svåra tider; det rent privatpersonliga sociala skyddsnät som hade varit livsnödvä...

Hosted by FT columnist Gillian Tett and FT Alphaville editor Robin Wigglesworth, The Story of Money explores the history of global finance through the people, ideas, events, and institutions that have shaped it. New episodes will be released weekly on Wednesdays from 22 April. Watch, listen and subscribe for free on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Financial Times 22 April 2026 https://www.ft.com/tsom?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Gillian Tett - en av mina Gurus https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/07/gillian-tett-en-av-mina-gurus.html

Högsta domstolen ändrar hovrättens domslut beträffande rättegångskostnader  på så sätt att   B.B. ska få ersättning av allmänna medel för rättegångskostnader i tingsrätten med 9 276 725 kr och 4 585,28 euro. Av beloppet avser 7 409 500 kr ombudsarvode samt rättegångskostnader i hovrätten med 3 181 383 kr. Av beloppet avser 2 513 000 kr ombudsarvode, 32 107 kr utlägg och 636 276 kr mervärdesskatt. B.B. ska få ersättning av allmänna medel för sina rättegångskostnader i Högsta domstolen med 1 203 335 kr. Av beloppet avser 962 500 kr ombudsarvode, 168 kr utlägg och 240 667 kr mervärdesskatt. https://rattspraxis.etjanst.domstol.se/sok/publicering/82021bc1-7d3a-4804-a154-b6e8d13b9cd6?domstolskod=HDO   21 april. Birgitte Bonnesen frias av Högsta domstolen. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/21-april-birgitte-bonnesen-frias-av.html

Nyheten att vicepresident JD Vance inte skulle flyga tillbaka till Pakistan för förnyade fredssamtal med Iran, strax innan vapenvilan skulle löpa ut, kom bara minuter före slutet av tisdagens handel på Wall Street.   Börsens reaktion: ”Jag bryr mig inte.”   En rörig kompromiss där Iran tar ut avgifter från fartyg som passerar genom sundet och livet i övrigt fortsätter som vanligt skulle inte vara bra, och knappast en rimlig utdelning på Washingtons beslut att gå i krig,   men kapitalmarknaderna skulle kunna leva med det — ungefär som de har levt med konflikten i Ukraina.  Världen är ändå på väg att avglobaliseras.   För det andra: det som marknaderna verkligen inte skulle tåla vore en upptrappning med en amerikansk markoperation och iranska attacker mot energiinfrastruktur i Gulfen. Det vore en katastrof.   Övertygade om att detta innebär att någon upptrappning inte kommer att ske, har aktier fått utrymme att stiga kraftigt (även ut...

Equities wiped out an advance that had earlier put the S&P 500 on pace for a record.  Brent hovered near $98. Treasury yields rose alongside the dollar. President Donald Trump said Tehran had “no choice” but to send a delegation to Pakistan.  The US is “ready to go” with a resumption of bombing if a breakthrough isn’t reached, he told CNBC.  Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran would not “accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.” Bloomberg 21 April 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/-stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates Niall Ferguson: Markets are trading like the war is over I asked why the outbreak of World War I—an event traditionally seen as having been heralded by a series of international crises—was not apparently anticipated by investors. To investors such as the Rothschilds—supposedly the best-informed people in the world at that time, as their Wall Street counterparts are today—World War I truly came as a bolt ...

It’s a source of some confusion (to me, at least) that the Iran war, the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the resulting impact on the energy market, have been greeted with general equanimity by global equity markets. But I suspect it’s mostly down to this: these days, markets need proof.  “Buy the dip” is often parodied as a kneejerk reaction from mindless traders.  But since around about 2009, it has been the correct response to every drop in the market.  Every scare has been a buying opportunity, and the people who bought have made money. You can hardly blame investors for their caution. I mean, a war in the Middle East is a big deal but so was a war in Europe (which is, of course, still ongoing), and a global pandemic was bigger than either of them, and the correct financial answer was still “just hold your nose, and keep buying.” John Stepek Bloomberg April 21, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-21/markets-are-forward-looking-bu...

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Yet markets are trading like the war is over. The wisdom of crowds? Or delusion? Plans have been published for a giant, gold-bedecked victory arch that has already been nicknamed the Arc de Trump. From all of this it might reasonably be inferred that the “Seven Weeks’ War” has concluded.   How are we to make sense of this? Since the war began, I have written essays warning of 1) the danger that the conflict goes global, 2) the risk of recession if the conflict is protracted, and 3) the nightmare that this is the American version of the 1956 Suez Crisis.  Either Wall Street has canceled all its subscriptions to The Free Press, or I am missing something. I can offer three possible explanations 3. Mr. Market is as clueless as he was in July 1914, September 1929, December 1972, August 2000, October 2007, and February 2020—all months when stocks reached highs shortly before reality struck devastating blows. Where we go from here is fairly p...