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2019-06-18

Lysande artikel. Swedbank är banken i sin tredje stora kris på 30 år.

Hoppet står nu till en före detta statsminister.

Det här är berättelsen om hur en svensk folkbank hamnade i en internationell härva av misstänkt penningtvätt.

         


Africa to propel world’s population towards 10bn by 2050

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is set to double over the next 30 years, adding an additional 1bn people

The trend is exemplified by Nigeria, whose population has already surged from 95m in 1990 to 201m this year. 
Nigeria’s population is set to double again to more than 400m by 2050, when it will have overtaken the US as the world’s third most inhabited country.

FT 17 June 2019

9.7 billion on Earth by 2050, but growth rate slowing, 

says new UN population report



Min första artikel i en stor tidning
Vad gör vi åt befolkningsexplosionen?
Rolf Englund Svenska Dagbladet, Fritt Forum (dåtidens Brännpunkt) 4/8 1967

https://www.internetional.se/wolfsachsdoom.htm




2019-06-17

Ms. Warren and Donald Trump agree on at least one thing: America’s currency problems are hurting workers.

Overseas currency manipulation by central governments made American exports more expensive all over the world. 

And it made products manufactured in China and other countries cheaper in comparison.

It’s the primary reason America’s trade deficit soared over the last 20 years, wiping out almost five million manufacturing jobs, roughly 90,000 factories and the livelihood of thousands of the nation’s farmers.

Robert E. Scott, Senior economist with the Economic Policy Institute Policy Center NYT June 16, 2019

Economic Policy Institute

US Dollar

Open letter responding to a series of essays by Ray Dalio, part 2

Dear Ray,

Keeping rates too low for too long in the current cycle brought massive capital misallocation. 

It resulted in the financialization of a significant part of the business world, in the US and elsewhere. 

The rules now reward management, not for generating revenue, but to drive up the price of the share price, thus making their options and stock grants more valuable.

Artificially low rates created the housing bubble, exacerbated by regulatory failure and reinforced by a morally bankrupt financial system.

John Mauldin 14 June 2019

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, and MMT



Washington can pull the plug on Hong Kong's economic model at any moment

Once this line is crossed, the US will cease to recognise the territory as an independent member of the World Trade Organisation. 

It will cut off access to sensitive technologies. Hong Kong will be subject to the same painful tariffs faced by exporters from mainland China.

Ambrose 16 June 2019

2019-06-15

Why the next bear market could shave 35% off the Dow

What about the Cyclically-Adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) that was made famous by Yale University finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller? 

CAPE currently is extremely high (30.2, versus an average of 15.8 since 1871),


Mark Hulbert MarketWatch June 14, 2019 

Robert Shiller

2019-06-14

Italy and France debt

The problem for Emmanuel Macron as he fans the flames of a no-deal Brexit is that his banks own a large chunk of Italy’s debt through subsidiaries. 

Total French exposure is 12 times French GDP, six times its exposure to Greece in 2010.


Ambrose Telegraph 14 June 2019

- Den stora risken var att Grekland skulle utlösa en kris i italienska, franska och tyska banker. 
Nu finns i praktiken en EU-garanti för de utestående grekiska statsobligationerna.
Anders Borg, TT, SvD papper 22 februari 2012

2019-06-13

Hur kommer det sig att Ben Bernanke som var en erkänd expert på Den stora depressionen 1929 inte såg krisen komma?

Det är för att i hans ekonomiska modell så existerar ingen ”kreditdriven efterfrågan”. Han avfärdade professor Irving Fischers kreditbaserade förklaring av Den stora depressionen 

Professor Steve Keen med flera SvD 13 juni 2019

Bernanke

Hyman Minsky



2019-06-12

Martin Feldstein, economist, 1939-2019

 Feldstein in 1997 published what swiftly became a notorious commentary on the idea of the European single currency for Foreign Affairs. In it, he argued that the creation of a single currency could lead to intra-European disputes: “conflicts over economic policies and interference with national sovereignty could reinforce longstanding animosities based on history, nationality, and religion”.

Martin Wolf FT 12 June 2017


The crisis in the eurozone is the result of France’s persistent pursuit of the “European project,” 
the goal of political unification that began after World War II when two leading French politicians, 
Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman, proposed the creation of a United States of Europe.
Martin Feldstein, 27 May 2012



http://www.nejtillemu.com/freden.htm#0512feldstein

Europas politiker har slagit in på en ekonomisk kurs som ser ut att leda mot sammanbrott. 
Konsekvenserna riskerar att bli dramatiska.
Huvudargumentet för en europeisk valuta var att den skulle göra krig omöjliga.
Tio år senare har valutasamarbetet lett till motsatsen
Har vi svenskar förträngt hur vi löste vår egen finanskris under 1990-talet?
Peter Wolodarski, DN 27 maj 2012


http://www.nejtillemu.com/wolodarski.htm#0512sammanbrott


Why did it all go wrong? Three main reasons: 

French grandiosity, German shame and a universal law of bureaucratic self-aggrandizement.


 Clive Crook, Bloomberg, 24 May 2012


 http://www.nejtillemu.com/feldstein.htm





Stagflation is not good for the stock market

The next president of the ECB might determine whether there is a eurozone, perhaps an EU, at the end of the term in 2027.

It is possible for Germany to have full employment and a budget surplus because Germany has been running a huge current account surplus. 

That would have been far more difficult if Germany had not been inside the eurozone: a floating Deutsche Mark would surely have appreciated hugely, Germany would now be in deflation

Martin Wolf FT 11 June 2019



2019-06-10

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, and MMT

Ray Dalio is the thoughtful, somewhat controversial founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, which he started in 1975. 

“Ray Dalio is really, really wrong.” In that essay he basically endorses Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). 

Coming from someone of Ray’s stature, and knowing that others like Bill Gross are beginning to endorse MMT either obliquely or directly, I found myself wanting to shout, “Stop! This is dangerous!”

John Mauldin 7 June 2019


Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, says that unconventional monetary policies may be required as traditional policy stumbles.

MarketWatch 2 May 2019



Breakdown of society

Om civilisationen kollapsar t ex 2050 kommer allt inte att vara som vanligt 2049, tänkte jag och googlade Breakdown of society. 

Jag fann raskt artiklar hos BBC och New Scientist.

Arnold Toynbee in his 12-volume magnum opus A Study of History - an exploration of the rise and fall of 28 different civilisations.

You might also like:

How Western civilisation could collapse
The perils of short-termism: Civilisation’s greatest threat
What are the biggest threats to humanity?

BBC Future - The long view of humanity Luke Kemp 19 February 2019

AH, the good old days, when predictions that “the end is nigh” were seen only on sandwich boards, and the doom-mongers who carried them were easy enough to ignore. If only things had stayed so simple.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23731610-300-end-of-days-is-western-civilisation-on-the-brink-of-collapse/

New Scientist is the world’s most popular weekly science and technology magazine. Its website, app and print editions cover international news from a scientific standpoint, and ask the biggest-picture questions about life, the universe and what it means to be human. 

https://www.newscientist.com/about/



Civilisationen kan kollapsa 2050 – ska vi bry oss?


How Matteo Salvini could blow up the eurozone

A curious thing happened in the Italian parliament last week. The chamber of deputies voted unanimously in favour of a motion to introduce a parallel currency in Italy — the so-called mini-BOTs.

Wolfgang Münchau FT 9 June 2019