Englund

Statsminister Göran Perssons utdragna eurovånda handlade också om valutunionens konstruktion. Går det att ha gemensam valuta utan att också ha gemensam ekonomisk politik?  Merkel och Göran Persson om politisk union och skatteunion https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2012/01/merkel-och-goran-persson-om-politisk.html Vi skulle behöva formulera en tanke om vad vi vill med EU-medlemskapet. Erik Zsiga DI 11 juli 2026 https://www.di.se/ledare/sverige-behover-en-eu-debatt/

Bonds issued by the top five hyperscalers — Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle — are now yielding roughly 0.6 percentage points more than their blue-chip peers with the same ratings and maturities,  RE: 0,6 procent låter inte mycket för en amatör. representing the widest risk premium of any sector in the investment-grade market. “It’s not clear what the industry landscape is going to look like ten years from now.” Michelle Chan Financial Times 10 July 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/28380abc-72f9-4287-8d36-2823c73358ce?syn-25a6b1a6=1 AI investor fatigue Hyperscalers are doubling their capital expenditure this year to some $800bn with scarcely any revenue to show for it yet. “At some point you’ve got to make money. And we’ve gotten further away from that over the last couple of years instead of closer to it,” says Jim Covello, head of global equities at Goldman Sachs. Almost all profit so far has been captured by makers of semiconductor chips and graphics processing units (G...

Forget stock-market ‘FOMO.’ Worry now about ‘NOGO’ — no option but getting out. The next global financial crisis is already under way. Here is how it will unfold. Retail investors, dazzled by FOMO (fear of missing out), FEMO (fabulous earning momentum) based on the other “EBITDA” (earnings before Iran, tariffs, Donald and AI) and TINA (there is no alternative).  Satyajit Das MarketWatch 9 July 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-great-moderation-satyajit-das.html Fotnot: EBITDA står för Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. Tio länder finansierar Natos köp av Globaleye, som presenterades på Natotoppmötet i Ankara. Planet är en Bombardier 6500, som vanligtvis används som businessjet. Men Saab har byggt om den till just ett flygande öga. Ett väldigt skarpt sådant. Therese Larsson Hultin SvD 10 juli 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/K8GpW6/sverige-kan-bli-stor-vinnare-pa-upprustningen Kix-index, som visar den svenska valutans handelsviktade värde,...

Warsh tapped several former policymakers for the task forces, including former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, who led the UK’s central bank through the 2008-09 financial crisis, and Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India who was noted for his early warnings ahead of the global financial crisis. Bloomberg 9 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-09/fed-s-warsh-names-leadership-for-five-new-task-forces Mervyn King King is good at articulating what’s wrong with the global economy, not so good when it comes to solutions. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/mervyn-king.html Raghuram Rajan Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund notes in a thought-provoking new book, the underlying “fault lines” are still with us. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/jag-har-haft-fel-forut-i-dag-14-juli.html Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the ...

  En expert säger att bostadsmarknaden är den bästa illustrationen av den “K-formade ekonomin” som vi befinner oss i just nu. Rekordhöga bostadspriser och stigande bolåneräntor skapar frustration både hos köpare och säljare på stora delar av den amerikanska bostadsmarknaden – men i den övre delen av fastighetsmarknaden ser bilden helt annorlunda ut. Förmögna köpare, som är relativt okänsliga för dagens höga ränteläge, står bakom en livlig försäljning av lyxbostäder.  Den senaste statistiken från bostadsmarknaden pekar på en växande klyfta mellan vanliga amerikanska bostadsköpare och deras rikare motsvarigheter, som till stor del är oberörda av problemen med minskad förmåga att betala dagens bostadspriser.   Ulf Kristersson: Två vanliga löner ska räcka för att köpa och bo i ett hus https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/ulf-kristersson-tva-vanliga-loner-ska.html https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/villasuget-okar-saljs-fler-an-under-pandemin/ Rich home buyers are powering the hou...

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/us-military-launches-strikes-on-iran-for-second-straight-day I Europa väntas en rekyl uppåt  USA genomförde med start sent under onsdagskvällen en ny, sex timmar lång attackvåg mot cirka 90 militära mål i Iran med explosioner i flera städer.  Som svar har Iran avfyrat drönare och robotar mot amerikanska militära mål i Kuwait och Bahrain, och flyglarm har aktiverats i Qatar. Den uppblossade konflikten i Mellanöstern med USA och Iran går in på sin andra dag. Samtidigt tycks börserna i Asien närmast obekymrade – och i Europa väntas en rekyl uppåt efter onsdagens nedgångar. DI 9 juli 2026, 07:21 https://www.di.se/live/morgonkoll-rekyl-upp-vantas-pa-europaborserna/ Jag finner detta svårt att förstå, eftersom den stora uppgången den senaste tiden har sin grund i marknadens tro att fred är antågande (FOMO). 31 mars Irans president uppges vara beredd att avsluta kriget. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/vandpunkten...

  31 mars Irans president uppges vara beredd att avsluta kriget https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/stockholm-och-new-york-31-mars-trump.html

Vändpunkten 31 mars 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/vandpunkten-31-mars-2026.html Nasdaq stod för en imponerande återhämtning när Wall Street  avslutade onsdagen med blandade index.  https://www.di.se/live/viss-aterhamtning-pa-blandat-wall-street/ Under natten har har USA genomfört över 80 attacker mot mål i Iran. Lugn börsöppning väntas. DI 8 juli 2026, 06:55 https://www.di.se/live/morgonkoll-lugn-borsoppning-vantas-trots-eskalering-i-mellanostern/ Trots tisdagens AI-oro ser flera bedömare ingen anledning till bred börsoro. I stället pekar man på en sund sektorrotation https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/trots-tisdagens-ai-oro-ser-flera.html DI 8 juli 2026, 09:13 https://www.di.se/live/sur-oppning-efter-attackerna-avanza-pressas/ Trump: För mig är vapenvilan över. Han kallade Iran ”onda, sjuka människor” och menade att vapenvilan med Iran nu är över, rapporterar CNN. Stockholmsbörsen faller och oljepriset stiger. DI 8 juli 2026, 10:42 https://www.di.se/li...

”Jag tror att det handlar mer om en rotation, och det är därför volatiliteten på indexnivå fortsätter att vara ganska dämpad”,  DI 7 juli 2026 20:41 https://www.di.se/live/experter-rotationen-bort-fran-ai-vinnare-kan-fortsatta/ RE: Ingen fara - Fattas bara RE: Det är inte så lätt att rotera. Av någon anledning köps det varje dag exakt lika många aktier som det säljs.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/rotera.html Rotation is different from contagion or crashes; it’s capital moving, not disappearing. https://www.investopedia.com/answers?q=rotation RE: Men nog måste en del kapital försvinna när det totala Market Cap minskar.  The Nasdaq-100's Market Cap decline from the peak A rough estimate of: ~$1.1–1.3 trillion lost since the June 3, 2026 all-time high. According to Claude 8 July 2026

  The US trade deficit in May Exports fell 3.2%. Imports rose 3.3% https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-07/us-trade-deficit-widens-to-biggest-in-more-than-a-year US Trade deficit https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/us-trade-deficit.html

Panmure Liberum analysts said the S&P 500 is valued at 41 times earnings under the Shiller CAPE ratio, near the record high of the dot-com era. BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin warned that once an earnings bubble peaks, stocks could fall between 30% and 50%. If you ask a bull to list three reasons why stocks aren’t in a bubble right now, they’re bound to bring up the forward price-to-earnings ratio. Analysts like to compare the price of a stock with the amount of earnings per share the company is expected to earn over the next 12 months.  While stock prices have soared lately, Wall Street earnings estimates have been rising even more quickly. If one were to adjust recent earnings to account for a more normal pace of growth, the Shiller CAPE ratio would swell to 67.6, or 4.6 standard deviations above the long-term trend.  This would surpass the peak of every other asset bubble in U.S. history, the analysts wrote. Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch 6 July 2026 https://ww...

The world only embarked on the experiment of fiat currencies when US President Richard Nixon took the dollar off gold in 1971. The so-called Bretton Woods 2.0 system was not planned in Washington. It was adopted in the late 1990s as a form of self-insurance by emerging markets seeking protection against the risks of financial crisis. Above all it was China that pegged its exchange rate and began large-scale official reserve accumulation in the 2000s. This conferred on the US the exorbitant privilege of stable, official funding of twin deficits — on current account and in government budgets.   Around 2015,the accumulation of new reserves plateaued. And yet America’s twin deficits continue.  But how are they funded, if not through official reserve accumulation? In part through off-the-books holding of reserves on the balance sheets of China’s state banks and, above all, through private foreign investors acquiring US assets. America’s deficits are financed by inflows from Eu...

While scientists have long braced for climate change, the growing severity of its impacts is shocking them. Everyone is shocked. Like the Police Chief in Casablanca.  “Far from being self-stabilizing, the Earth’s climate system is an ornery beast which overreacts even to small nudges,” wrote the late Wallace Broecker in 1995, two decades after he coined the term “global warming.” As the global average temperature rises gradually, changes on the ground can be abrupt and dramatic, hurting people and damaging property. Especially during El Niño weather phases, one of which began in June and is set to bring months of misbehaving weather. Weather emergencies are local: No one experiences heat or rain as a global average.  Insurers, bankers, emergency responders, infrastructure managers, homeowners, beachgoers — all need to know which plausibly bad or worst-case scenarios to plan for, where.   Solar is the fastest-growing power source worldwide, making up 75% of new demand...

Oljepriserna stoppade återhämtning på Wall Street Wall Street var på väg mot en stark återhämtning efter att minnes- och halvledarbolag pressat USA-börserna i början av tisdagen. Men rusande oljepriser grusade hoppet och indexen föll tillbaka. En annan förklaring kan vara Reuters artikel om att kinesiska Deepsek utvecklar ett eget AI-chip, vilket skulle vara en nackdel för Samsung och Nvidia. https://www.di.se/live/oljepriserna-stoppade-aterhamtning-pa-wall-street/ Trots tisdagens AI-oro ser flera bedömare ingen anledning till bred börsoro. I stället pekar man på en sund sektorrotation https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/trots-tisdagens-ai-oro-ser-flera.html Here are some of the biggest recent decliners 21.00: Intel (INTC): Down 11% Applied Materials (AMAT): Down 8% Western Digital (WDC): Down 8% Marvell Technology (MRVL): Down 9% Micron Technology (MU): Down 7% KLA (KLAC): Down 8% Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Down 6% CoreWeave (CRWV): Down 5% ARM Holdings (ARM): Down 7% Texas I...