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Oljepriset rusar – Trump utesluter inte marktrupper https://www.dagensps.se/bors-finans/oljepriset-rusar-nar-iran-konflikten-trappas-upp/ Monitoring the Situation https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/monitoring-situation.html Måndagens handel på Wall Street vände till grönt framåt stängning,  efter att investerare köpt i dippen,  en trend som inte ser ut att hålla i sig på tisdagen. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-03/iran-latest The Iran war is rapidly engulfing the region    The Economist https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/03/02/the-iran-war-is-rapidly-engulfing-the-region   Whether President Donald Trump wins the Third Gulf War will depend a lot on whether the Pentagon can effectively reopen the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipping, and soon.  The American military doesn’t have weeks to do so — only days. Bloomberg March 3, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-03/iran-war-the-us-needs-to-race-...

When there’s modern military conflict, men are, as the self-deprecating but unusually sincere internet meme now goes, “monitoring the situation.” In one sense, this is radically new. In the age of social media, open-source satellites, and group chats, technology can now provide real-time updates on everything from the movements of aerial military fuel tankers to clips from hostile countries’ state TV networks Hence, in 2022, when Russian tanks were getting bogged down on their way to what almost everyone at the time predicted was going to be a swift dismantling of the Ukrainian state, Elon Musk posted a meme that sums up the whole thing: We modern Western civilian men feel, I think, a sort of shame about how utterly actionless modern life is for those who are not flying F-35s, or otherwise involving ourselves in the physical protection of anything. That’s why my wife jokes, not without justification, that when my male friends and I get together, it takes us fewer than 10 minutes to sta...

Ett år in i USA:s president Donald Trumps andra mandatperiod har de globala finans- och energimarknaderna lärt sig en läxa som förkortas TACO. Trump Always Chickens Out. Trump fegar alltid ur. Enligt TACO-doktrinen är Trumps förlåtande drag hans förmåga att ändra sig. När en vansinnig idé slår snett eller visar sig för kostsam hittar han en reträttväg att vika av på. I regel är det just finansmarknaderna som skickar signalen. Och efteråt kan alla låtsas som det regnar. Men det finns gränser för hur starkt denna mekanism fungerar som nödbroms på det skenande Trumptåget.   När finansmarknaderna ser ett nytt ansvarslöst infall från Trump antar man numera genast att förloppet kommer att sluta i något relativt harmlöst. En risk är därför att stoppsignalen försvagas och till slut inte når fram förrän det är för sent. Förutom det lokala lidandet är potentialen för utdragen förstörelse i världsekonomin enorm.   Carl Johan von Seth DN 2 mars 2026 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/car...

   “It’s panic selling,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equities strategy at Barclays. “This is a stagflationary scare. The market was complacent about the scale of this war [before the weekend].” “People are taking risk down,” said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “The market seems to be mentally transitioning from a short war to a long war.” RE: Det finns ju lite att ta av. Financial Times 3March Updated 11:02 https://www.ft.com/content/48a11039-eca6-4af4-89bd-c79b4203aee8 Investor faller tungt för andra dagen i rad i börskaoset efter krigsutbrottet i Mellanösternörsen. Nära 65 miljarder av de 710.000 ägarnas pengar har gått upp i rök hittills denna vecka.  DI tisdag 3 mars 2026, 11:01 https://www.di.se/live/investor-faller-65-miljarder-upp-i-rok-i-borskaoset/ Klockrena köplägen. ”Det är inte att vänta att ärkehertig Franz Ferdinands död kommer att få någon omedelbar eller påtaglig effekt på europeisk politik”, skrev engelska tidning...

”Det är en klassisk svansrisk. Låg sannolikhet, hög påverkan”, säger Erik Lundkvist. ”Det är oftast klokare att agera än att reagera. Att köpa dippen har haft hög sannolikhet att vara rätt strategi.” Även Danske Banks seniora strateg Maria Landeborn beskriver marknadsreaktionen som sansad. Hon ser i nuläget ingen dramatisk köpdipp. ”Det är ingen stor nedgång. Men om vi får tydligare press under veckan tycker jag att man ska se det som ett köptillfälle.” Grundscenariot för året är fortsatt positivt. ”Fed har sänkt räntan och väntas sänka mer. Karl Hedberg, aktiechef på DNB Carnegie Private Banking, delar bilden av en kontrollerad marknadsreaktion, men utesluter inte en fortsatt nedgång. När det gäller tajmningen är han försiktigt opportunistisk. ”I enskilda bolag brukar man prata om tre dagar som tumregel vid stora ras. För marknaden som helhet är det svårare. Man ska inte ha panik att köpa första dagen, utan räkna med viss volatilitet.” Semir Hasanbegovic DI 3 mars 2026 https://www...

JPMorgan Chief Jamie Dimon cautioned that there’s more optimism in the market than there should be given all the risks — such as conflict in the Middle East — that have cropped up. “Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high,” Dimon said Monday in a Bloomberg Television interview at his company’s annual global leveraged-finance conference in Miami.  “I think there’s a little more exuberance than there should be, but we’ve had years of it.” “I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think,” Dimon said. “I think inflation will cause the economic downturn.” Boomberg 2 March 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/jamie-dimon-says-exuberant-market-doesn-t-match-fine-economy JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon warned that inflation could become a “skunk at a party” for the US economy. “There’s some risk there’s more inflation than people think, and that could be like a skunk at a party if that ...

Bo G Andersson argumenterar i dokumentären ”Agenten och mörkläggningen” för att den grandiose Ebbe Carlsson och hans medhjälpare Barrling och Kegö blev medvetet nedtystade, när de  faktiskt med hjälp av den så kallade diplomatavlyssningen säkert visste (?) att Sovjet redan visste, och kanske var djupt inblandade i mordet. Det är lite spännande – men det är väldigt tunt. Johan Croneman DN 2 mars 2026 https://www.dn.se/kultur/johan-croneman-ursakta-klarspraket-svt-men-vi-skiter-i-era-rutiner/ Mordet på Olof Palme i DN https://www.dn.se/om/mordet-pa-olof-palme/ Palmegruppen har, enligt spaningsledaren Dag Andersson, under lång tid försökt arrangera ett förhör med Kegö och Barrling.   Först efter 25 år, i början av 2014, avslöjade Expressen att Palmegruppen hållit ett första förhör med Kegö och Barrling den 16 maj 2014.  Sekretess bedömdes dock hindra dem från att kunna berätta.  Sekretessfrågan kring deras hemligstämplade uppgifter har dock stått i vägen. Expressen...

A better predictor of recessions is the spread between the two indicators. A recession more often than not happens whenever the spread rises to a high level and then begins to retreat. Why? The CCI gives greater weight to what consumers think about the economy in general,  while the UMI more heavily reflects what consumers think about their own personal circumstances.  A spread as wide as it is now means that consumers have greater confidence about the U.S. economy overall than in their personal situations. The job market, for example. Things look good from a macro perspective, with the U.S. unemployment rate near the low end of its historical range.  But from a ground-level perspective, many (if not most) believe that finding a decent-paying job is surprisingly difficult. A recession becomes more likely when consumers become gloomy not only about their personal prospects but the overall economy as well, which is when the CCI-UMI spread begins to narrow. Mark Hulbert Mark...

The executives Ostrover and Lipschultz, joined forces to launch fund manager Blue Owl, turning it into a powerhouse in the booming business of lending to private companies without the use of banks.  They pounced on trends early, zeroing in on lending to software companies, plowing money into artificial intelligence and selling their funds to wealthy individuals. Ostrover and Lipschultz became instant billionaires, buying a hockey team, a piece of a football team and luxury real estate.  Now, the foundations of their empire are cracking—raising questions about the once-sizzling industry’s future and transfixing Wall Street in a mix of schadenfreude and anxiety. Wall Street Journal 1 March 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/blue-owl-private-credit-downfall-b657a53a JPMorgan took the lead last year in financing the $55 billion takeover of Electronic Arts Inc., a record-setting leveraged buyout.  Wall Street saw it as a sign that a lucrative period of bankrolling supe...

 This should be one of Labour’s safest constituencies. It won the seat with more than half the vote in the general election just 18 months ago. But it finds itself squeezed by populists on the Green left and anti-immigrant right. Manchester University’s Rob Ford, a political scientist, says Labour is now walking in the electoral valley of death. The threat is indeed existential.  In Gorton and Denton, Labour was pushed to a miserable third, losing white working-class voters to Reform and students, graduates and Muslims to the avowedly socialist Greens.  All these groups were the bedrock of its 2024 victory. And the outcome wasn’t close.  Starmer’s real failure was articulated by Spencer in her acceptance speech.  “Working hard used to get you something,” she said. “It got you a house, a nice life, holidays… But now, working hard, what does that get you?” One glimmer of light for Labour is that this was also a bad night for Reform. Rosa Prince Bloomberg February ...

  Used for agricultural machinery, ships and railways, making it a crucial industrial fuel.  Prices at one point early Monday shot up over 21% amid reports that one of Saudi Aramco’s biggest refineries, Ras Tanura, was hit by a drone strike, forcing its closure. Barbara Kollmeyer MarketWatch March 2, 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gasoil-is-spiking-more-than-crude-what-it-is-and-why-prices-are-soaring-amid-iran-conflict-af45ca50

Mom-and-pop investors pulling their cash in fear of corporate defaults spiking and artificial intelligence destroying many of the software businesses that these funds have lent to.  Michelle Bowman, the Federal Reserve board member in charge of regulation, said banks should have the flexibility to compete.  “Nonbank financial institutions continue to increase their share of the total lending market, creating strong competition for regulated banks without facing the same prudential standards,” she told the Senate banking committee on Thursday. After the financial crisis of 2008, banking rules were overhauled to stop deposit-funded lenders betting on markets or directly lending to most high-risk borrowers. All nonbanks combined now hold more assets than all banks.  One major concern is that this shadow banking sector, as it is known, has turbocharged its impact on the economy by borrowing from traditional lenders, too. In the US, bank loans to nonbanks have been the fastest...

People are complacent about risk of financial crisis, says Lloyd Blankfein, former Goldman CEO.  Says finance industry should plan as though another 2008-style meltdown is coming. Concerns mount about the economic disruption from artificial intelligence and the underwriting standards at many non-bank lenders, which have proliferated in the past two decades.  Blankfein is out with a memoir this month. The main drama in Streetwise is the 2008 financial crisis. We were constantly challenging our traders to sell into the market, to see the true value. Streetwise: Getting To and Through Goldman Sachs.  It charts his unlikely rise from Brooklyn public housing to running one of the world’s most important financial institutions. Forbes pegs his net worth at around $1.7bn.  “I’ve met a few people in my life where they were so smart I couldn’t even figure out how they saw the world,” Blankfein said, naming Elon Musk and Warren Buffett. “But most of the time, people aren’t that...

  Aktier faller i Gulfstaterna efter Iranattacken https://www.di.se/nyheter/aktier-faller-i-gulfstaterna-efter-iranattacken/ Wall Street återhämtade sig – trots nytt oljeprislyft De stora nedgångarna på Wall Street uteblev på måndagen, och  indexen vände upp under kvällen. https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-aterhamtade-sig-trots-nytt-oljeprislyft/ Buy the dip Röd börsöppning väntar i Europa – men inte blodig  DI 2 mars 2026, 08:08 https://www.di.se/live/rod-borsoppning-vantar-i-europa-men-inte-blodig/ Flera storbolag föll tungt på sjunkande Stockholmsbörs https://www.di.se/live/flera-storbolag-foll-tungt-pa-sjunkande-stockholmsbors/ Mellanöstern. För börsen är konflikten närmast betydelselös. Tvärtom är eventuella kursfall i stället klockrena köplägen. ”Det är inte att vänta att ärkehertig Franz Ferdinands död kommer att få någon omedelbar eller påtaglig effekt på europeisk politik”, skrev engelska tidningen The Guardian efter att tronarvingen till Österrike-Ungern mördat...

Egentligen är det ogörligt att fråga sig vad som hade hänt om han fått leva – och än mer ogörligt att undra hur han skulle se på dagens uppgifter; i en annan tid och under helt andra förutsättningar än hans. Men låt mig ändå försöka. Hade den djupa 1990-talskrisen kunnat undvikas med honom vid rodret? Sannolikt inte. Även en Palme-regering hade tvingats till saneringsåtgärder. Skulle Palme ha varit för ett svenskt EU-medlemskap? Absolut! Skulle han vara för en övergång till euron? Det är svårare att veta.  Min gissning är att han i dag nog skulle säga ja. Inte av ekonomiska skäl utan av politiska - för att bygga ett mer sammansvetsat Europa i en hårdare omvärld. Då skulle handlingsmänniskan vilja sitta med vid bordet, inte bara titta på. Klas Eklund DN Debatt 27 februari 2026 https://www.dn.se/debatt/i-dag-skulle-palme-nog-ha-omprovat-sin-egen-politik/ RE: Det är genant att behöva påpeka det, men kan verkligen Klas Eklund tro på att vi får ett mer sammansvetsat Europa och att Sveri...

  The curse of Europe’s one-size-fits-all currency union has struck again. Real interest rates set by the uropean Central Bank (ECB) are too high for France’s stagnant high-debt economy. At the other extreme, borrowing costs are too low for Portugal and Bulgaria, whose economies are overheating and property prices are surging at annual rates above 15pc. The latest caretaker government has imposed a status quo budget by decree power, using the infamous Article 49.3 after it promised not to do so. This tension is now pitting France against Germany. “France has the highest level of public spending in Europe, the highest budget deficit in the eurozone and the fastest rising public debt,” said François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the Bank of France, speaking to the French senate. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 27 February 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/02/27/france-has-become-the-giant-problem-child-of-the-eurozone/

  Given the Strait carries about one in five barrels of oil in the world, if it is shut down “you are dealing with a monumental shock to the global oil price”.  Financial Times 1 March 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/31bfc01b-42a8-45f1-85d3-8f973595a456 War in Iran could cause the biggest oil shock in years On February 28th the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s praetorian guard, broadcast warnings that shipping through the strait was no longer permitted. Enforcing that threat will be hard. American forces would probably dismantle any blockade within hours. Yet the strait is fast becoming unnavigable anyway.  Satellite jamming is disrupting ships’ signals, raising the risk of collisions. Iran could deploy mines to make navigation even more hazardous. In the early hours of March 1st the Skylight, a Palau-flagged tanker blacklisted by America, was hit by a rocket off the coast of Oman. Insurers are jacking up rates or cancelling policies altogether for v...

For the habitual critics of U.S. foreign policy in general and Donald Trump’s in particular, the analogy between today’s air raids against Iran and the invasion of Iraq nearly 23 years ago is too obvious to be resisted. “Once again,” Simon Tisdall ranted in The Guardian, “a bellicose US president has unleashed overwhelming military firepower to force a sovereign nation to its knees. Once again, blatant lies and exaggerated claims are being propagated to justify the attack. Duplicitous American diplomacy became a fig leaf for premeditated aggression. The cautionary advice of allies was spurned. The UN, international law, and public opinion were ignored. Democratic consent is lacking. And once again, there are few defined goals by which to gauge success, and no long-term plan. . . . Like Bush, Trump manufactured a crisis, founded on falsehood, and effectively cornered himself.” And so on. Kriget mot Iran kan göra ”vinnaren” Trump till en förlorare Det är sant att USA länge har varit en i...

Nu ska Högsta domstolen avgöra om den tidigare Swedbankchefen ska sitta i fängelse för att ha mörkat bankens problem.   Alltihop började med att Estlands finansinspektion i flera år kritiserade Danske Banks Estlandsfilial för att den såg mellan fingrarna med hur så kallade högriskkunder i öst, framför allt rika ryssar, slussade pengar från sina hemländer till skatteparadis som Brittiska Jungfruöarna. Danske Banks filial i landet förlorade sitt banktillstånd 2015. Den 19 september 2018 presenterades utredningen, som kom fram till att motsvarande 2 000 miljarder svenska kronor hade slussats in och ut ur filialen 2007–2015 och att de flesta transaktioner var misstänkta. - Vi hittade ingenting. Vi har gått igenom alla kunder som var med i mediernas rapportering om Danske Bank och ingen av dem är, eller har varit, kunder i Swedbank. Inte en enda. Det var korrekt, som Birgitte Bonnesen sa, att ingen av de kunder som var med i mediernas rapportering om Danske bank var kund i Swedbank...