Leta i den här bloggen

2021-05-14

The once-a-decade headline would be a given: “Interest rates go negative.”

The fall in interest rates over the past 40 years is the story that, along with its brother in arms, money printing, explains all other financial stories. 

Merryn Somerset Webb FT 14 May 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/3be9697a-d13b-4e5f-b960-14f587f8c820





The elephant in the room is the bloated stock of money sitting in bank accounts

The excess savings of US households have reached $2.3 trillion. 

The New York Fed said people have been using a third of their unspent holdings to pay off debt. But that does not mean they will continue to do so. They may go on a spree instead as the country reopens.

Interest rates are zero and the Fed is still buying $120bn of bonds each month, directly financing part of Washington’s "war economy" debt issuance. 

It is persisting even though the broad M3 money supply has grown at 24pc over the last year. 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 13 May 2021

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/13/markets-losing-faith-federal-reservescredibility/


2021-05-13

House prices soared even as the world suffered its worst slump since the Great Depression.

From New Zealand to the United States, Germany, China and Peru, the same phenomenon has taken hold: home prices are skyrocketing, and many buyers are panicking.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/13/business/global-real-estate-prices/index.html


Americans expect home prices to rise — but most people think it’s a good time to buy a home anyway

Gallup’s survey found that 71% of Americans believe that home prices are going to increase over the next year in their local market. This is the highest reading since Gallup began tracking this data point, though it is not statistically different from 2005’s measure of 70%.

MarketWatch May 11, 2021

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-vast-majority-of-americans-expect-home-prices-to-rise-but-most-people-think-its-a-good-time-to-buy-a-home-anyway-11620683759





Why the English are complacent and the French apocalyptic

 In the 2017 election, a divided pessimist vote let Emmanuel Macron’s small optimists’ party into power. 

Yet each strand of the French spectrum still nurtures its pet apocalyptic scenario: neoliberal hegemony for the left, Islamist takeover for the far right, climate apocalypse for greens, end of national grandeur for Gaullists and Présidente Le Pen for Macronists.

Simon Kuper FT 13 May 2021


https://www.ft.com/content/f11a1c21-4744-4b7d-afdb-f361c1d3a319

Strandpromenaden nära båten mot Nybroplan med Pizza

 









FILM OM LIDINGÖ FÖR DEMENSDRABBADE

Han som gjort filmen heter Erik Kotschack

Min pappa hade några gånger äran att spela tennis med hans pappa, grundare av Radio Nord

https://www.lidingonyheter.se/film-om-lidingo-for-demensdrabbade/


https://www.traditionstv.se/#Filmer-dinstad


Swedbanks chefsstrateg

 



Mattias Isaksson, chefsstrateg på Swedbank räknar med volatila börser både i USA och Sverige den närmaste tiden.

SVD 13 maj 2021



2021-05-12

Wall Street onsdag


 

Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF

 falls to new low for the year, off nearly 35% from recent high

More than $1.1 billion of fund flows have left Ark Innovation this month. Ark Invest — including its five core ETFs — has lost about nearly $2 billion in investor dollars in MayCNBC 10 May 2021

CNBC 10 May 2021

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/cathie-woods-ark-innovation-etf-falls-to-new-low-for-the-year.html


 

‘I have no doubt, none whatsoever

‘I have no doubt, none whatsoever, that we are in a raging mania in all assets. 

I also have no doubt that I don’t have a clue when that’s going to end.’

— Stanley Druckenmiller

MarketWatch 11 May 2021




The consumer price index soared 0.8% in April to match the biggest monthly increase since 2009, the government said Wednesday. 

Economists polled by Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal had forecast a milder 0.2% advance. MarketWatch 12 May 2021





Fed’s financial stability report

“Should risk appetite decline from elevated levels, a range of asset prices could be vulnerable to large and sudden declines, which can lead to broader stress to the financial system,” 

the central bank said in its semiannual Financial Stability Report


WSJ 6 May 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-still-among-major-risks-to-financial-stability-fed-says-11620331219


Financial Stability Report

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20210506.pdf

Clinging to an emergency policy after the emergency has passed

Fed policy has enabled financial-market excesses. 

Today’s high stock-market valuations, the crypto craze, and the frenzy over special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are just a few examples of the response to the Fed’s aggressive policies

Christian Broda and Stanley Druckenmiller WSJ May 10, 2021


https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-is-playing-with-fire-11620684980


SPACs, also known as blank-check companies, have issued roughly $100 billion of stock this year, a record, to buy private companies and take them public. 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/04/wesc-fortsatter-rusa-nu-vart-kring.html

US corporations announce record repurchase plans

US companies announced $484bn in share buybacks in the first four months of this year, the highest such total in at least two decades

FT 12 May 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/d7adb226-e9a6-4cd8-9049-35d55c211ca4


The agency problem, originally identified by Adam Smith, whereby agents (executives) managed companies in their own interest rather than that of their principals (shareholders).

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/04/wave-of-corporate-defaults-owes-much-to.html


TIPS are the single best source of inflation protection, but

Unfortunately they are expensive, with 10-year TIPS paying 0.9% below inflation. 

Inflation needs to rise at least that much over the decade just to maintain purchasing power. If inflation fears pick up, TIPS prices are likely to rise as more people buy them. 

WSJ 11 May 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-inflation-is-coming-here-is-what-to-do-about-it-11620694235


Inflation might be the way out of the debt crisis


For this entire house of cards not to crumble, growth and inflation need to be restored. 



2021-05-11

Fed QE really will cause inflation this time

 It may soon be time to ask whether the US is in the foothills of an inflationary wage-price spiral, compounding the commodity price spiral that has been underway for several months. 

One might equally ask whether it is tenable for the US Federal Reserve to keep purchasing $120bn of bonds each month after the output gap has already closed, and at a time when the federal government is running a post-pandemic “war economy” deficit of 13pc of GDP. 

The current picture is nothing like the early phase of QE a decade ago when massive monetary expansion was required to offset the contraction of money caused by the banking crisis. Today US banks are again in rude good health and the transmission channels are working.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 11 May 2021

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/11/fed-qe-really-will-cause-inflation-time/



Kursutvecklingen fram till sommaren avgörs om börsoron även når räntemarknaden. 

Om så sker är risken stor att den rekyl vi nu ser ändrar skepnad till en varaktig och mer rejäl börsnedgång.    

Ulf Petersson DI 11 maj 2021

https://www.di.se/analys/da-blir-raset-pa-riktigt/



Nasdaq nu fem procent under All Time High

 


Kom ihåg att förra IT-kraschen höll på i nästan tre år - och det tog 15 år för index att återhämta sig





Jag är ändå fortsatt positiv till börsen och den kan mycket väl stiga mer

 


– Det har varit väldigt lätt att tjäna pengar på börsen och det senaste året har varit exceptionellt. Men jag är ändå fortsatt positiv till börsen och den kan mycket väl stiga mer, säger Maria Landeborn strateg och sparekonom på Danske Bank.

Även Shoka Åhrman, sparekonom på SPP, tror på en stigande aktiekurser framöver. Börsen drivs på av låga räntor, ekonomier som öppnar upp efter coronakrisen och centralbanker som fortsätter med olika stödåtgärder.

SvD 11 maj 2021

https://www.svd.se/radet-i-borshysterin-undvik-att-bli-girig


2021-05-10

Volatilt, as they say, on Wall Street today May 10, 2021



Vid utgången av april uppgick svenskarnas samlade fondförmögenhet till 6 047 miljarder

SvD/TT 10 maj 2021

The SNP can have its referendum – if it agrees the terms of a divorce first

Scotland should agree to take on a share of the UK’s total outstanding national debt, including state and public sector pensions which are often conveniently hidden from the calculations, on a per capita basis. 

The SNP would have to stop pretending it could simply use the pound as before. An independent Scotland could, of course, join the euro, or launch its own currency, or shadow sterling.

But it couldn’t expect to have any form of quantitative easing in sterling to meet its budget deficits.

Matthew Lynn Telegraph 10 May 2021

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/10/snp-can-have-referendum-agrees-terms-divorce-first/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-onward-journey

Hittills i år har svenska fastighetsbolag lånat 4,8 miljarder euro

Motsvarande nästan 50 miljarder kronor på den så kallade eurobondmarknaden, där bolag ger ut obligationer i annan valuta än den inhemska,

Nordiska bolag och primärt då svenska stod förra året och hittills i år för ungefär 30 procent av alla fastighetsobligationer på eurobondmarknaden”, säger Philip Asp.

DI 10 maj 2021

https://www.di.se/nyheter/svenska-fastighetsbolag-storspelare-pa-obligationsmarknaden/


Erik Thedéen, Finansinspektionrn: Den kommersiella fastighetssektorn – nya sårbarheter kräver handling

Fi 2021-05-07 

https://www.fi.se/sv/publicerat/tal-och-debatt/2021/erik-thedeen-den-kommersiella-fastighetssektorn--nya-sarbarheter-kraver-handling/


Erik Thedéen: Den svenska marknaden för företagsobligationer måste bli bättre på att bära och omfördela risk.

https://www.fi.se/sv/publicerat/tal-och-debatt/2021/erik-thedeen-sverige-behover-en-battre-marknad-for-foretagsobligationer/


Utlandslån

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=utlandslån


Bankernas utlandslån

https://www.internetional.se/banks.htm#1702wbe



12bn flowing into exchange traded funds that invest in Treasury inflation-protected securities

Will the surge in consumer prices this year be a temporary blip or the start of a much more prolonged period of higher inflation?

That is the debate raging on Wall Street — and among Washington policymakers 

FT 10 May 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/18b0e560-01ab-42fc-ab3e-b0287065d840


Five-year "breakevens" measuring inflation expectations have jumped to 2.71pc, the highest since the pre-Lehman boom. Yet the Fed is continuing to buy $120bn of bonds each month

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/05/five-year-breakevens-measuring.html



2021-05-09

Carl Bildt, Carl Tham och om hur Ola Ullsten blev statsminister

Dick Harrison skriver i dag den 9 maj i SvD

En avgörande kursändring kom på våren 1981.

Överenskommelsen nåddes på natten till den 24 april, som raskt döptes till ”Den underbara natten”. Moderaternas partiledare, tillika ekonomiminister, Gösta Bohman valde att hoppa av från regeringen 

Men inget av detta förklarar hur de båda andra borgerliga partierna kunde förhandla fram ett avtal med den socialistiska huvudfienden över huvudet på sin ekonomiminister och därmed lägga grunden till den egna regeringens fall.

https://www.svd.se/heliga-kor-sallsynta-i-svensk-politik

Ola Ullsten blev regeringschef sen Thorbjörn Fälldin efter två år lämnade den borgerliga trepartiregeringen. De flesta (RE: Däribland Carl Bildt, som jag vill minnas hade ätit middag med Carl Tham). räknade nog med att de två återstående regeringspartierna – Moderaterna och Folkpartiet – skulle bilda regering tillsammans. 

Men Ola Ullsten ville inte regera med moderatledaren.

Och tack vare att Socialdemokraterna la ner sina röster så kunde Ullsten tillträda.

KG Bergström Expressen 28 maj 2018

https://www.expressen.se/kronikorer/k-g-bergstrom/ola-ullsten-var-tveklost-socialdemokraternas-favorit/


Om detta skrev Bengt Gustafson på DN Debatt 2002-09-29

Moderaternas informationschef 1973-1976, informationssekreterare i ekonomidepartementet 1976-1978, moderaternas informationschef 1980-1981.

Folkpartiets samrådsgrupp leddes av Carl Tham. Tham grundlurade dock sin kollega under regeringskrisen hösten 1978, då han förespeglade Bildt att folkpartisterna hade intresse av att bilda ny regering med moderaterna. 

Det hade de inte alls. Planerna på en ren folkpartiregering var klara, innan Thorbjörn Fälldin inlämnade sin avskedsansökan.

https://www.internetional.se/bgombildt.htm#ingentors



I dag är det Europadagen; vår nya Internationaldag.

I dag, den 9 maj, inleds också den stora europeiska framtidskonferensen. 

Framtidskonferenser kan man med fog vara rätt kritisk mot, för trots storstilade ord om medborgardeltagande och att nå ut till ”den tysta majoriteten” blir det lätt flummigt och ett forum för redan invigda.

Lisa Irenius SvD 9 maj 2021

https://www.svd.se/skandalen-sager-nagot-viktigt-om-vilka-vi-ar


College of Europe, en europeisk masterutbildning som jag /Lisa Irenius/ gick i början av 2000-talet. Det meddelades att den planerade återträffen skjuts upp ytterligare, som så mycket annat på grund av corona. 

Det fick mig att tänka på den återträff jag var på 2015, en lite märklig men intressant tillställning, och som jag då skrev om i SvD. Då var många av mina tidigare kurskamrater, som numera jobbar i Bryssel, desillusionerade vad gäller EU:s framtid, efter flyktingkrisen och eurokrisen. 

https://www.svd.se/pa-atertraffen-ar-illusionerna-forlorade


EU-fadern Jean Monnet

http://www.nejtillemu.com/monnet.htm


Unionens motto ska vara "Förenat i mångfalden".
Unionens valuta ska vara euron.

Den 9 maj ska högtidlighållas i hela unionen som Europadagen till minne av 
Robert Schumans förklaring som inledde det europeiska integrationsprojektet.

http://www.nejtillemu.com/symboler.htm


Margot Wallström och Prinsen






Operation Pedestal – was to resupply the starving British-held island of Malta

 by escorting a single oil tanker and 13 fast cargo ships through Axis-controlled waters. 

On 11 August, the first day of the convoy, when “freak ASDIC [sonar] conditions” enabled a German U-boat with an undistinguished commander to sink the carrier HMS Eagle with 16 Hurricane fighters and 136 men. 

Syfret accelerated the westward retreat of the fleet, leaving the surviving merchant ships to continue their journey with a reduced escort of cruisers and destroyers and, crucially, no air cover. 

Telegraph 9 May 2021

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/what-to-read/churchill-threw-thenavy-malta-1942-worth/


Pedestal on Youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0inR2jRW_P8


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2A6-oon8sGs



2021-05-08

Ur arkivet: Wolodarski och Tysklands framgång med Ådalsmetoden

Tyskland lyckades således genomföra vad ekonomerna kallar en interndevalvering.

 Jag har tidigare på denna blog, Greklands interndevalvering och Ådalshändelserna dömt ut interndevalvering som en möjlig väg ur krisen.

 Hur kunde då Tyskland lyckas med det som i dag framstår som omöjligt för länderna i Sydeuropa?

 



Jemima Kelly, Cryptocurrencies and all that (Bitcoins, Tulips, South Sea Company)

Success of the ‘joke’ currency shows that we shouldn’t take cryptocurrencies too seriously

Jemima Kelly 11 May 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/2c3dd96c-b1b1-42fd-ab46-8b4791bf1270


Oh no, now Deloitte with the crypto nonsense

By the time we read the introduction, we trusting Alphavillains were feeling downright cynical

Now we don’t want to suggest this report has been written by a bunch of crypto bros, but has this report been written by a bunch of crypto bros? 

Jemima Kelly FT Alphaville 7 May 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/8d35a908-9d49-4992-9980-54f314bf5193

 

Jemima writes for FT Alphaville. She was previously a reporter at Reuters, where she mainly wrote about the foreign exchange market, cryptocurrencies and fintech. She has also written for The Economist.


Dogecoin really is man’s best friend

Remember when people used to analyse markets like they were a Really Serious Thing with serious fundamental factors driving them?

Jemima Kelly FT Alphaville 5 May 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/f654556a-12c6-46cc-9e89-3c7fb99f1a57


Excellent about Bitcoins, Tulips, England’s South Sea Company and France’s Mississippi Company

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/05/excellent-about-bitvoins-tulips.html