Englund

  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/citi-strategists-forecast-s-500-to.html Stockholmsbörsen svagt uppåt, vilket räckte för att  OMXS30 skulle stänga på en ny rekordnivå. Truecallers rasade 20,9 procent    https://www.di.se/live/nytt-omxs30-rekord-nytt-ras-for-truecaller/ If the stock market drops on a given day, retail investors impulsively buy the next day.  Their favourites are clear: on the Robinhood platform, the five most heavily owned stocks are all in the Magnificent Seven. And with $7.5tn still sitting in money market mutual funds, small US investors may have buying power left. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/parallels-between-ai-mania-and-dot-com.html Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/buy-dip.html Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/wall-street-12-december-2025.html  

 The US National Security Strategy marks a break with American postwar tradition, being semantically neutral toward adversaries like Russia and China, but vitriolic toward democratic mainstream politicians in Old Europe. The document claims that the European Union and other transnational bodies undermine political liberty and sovereignty, and asserts that Europe practices censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition. The strategy paper proclaims that the US goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory by cultivating resistance and aiding the growing influence of patriotic European parties, effectively putting Old Europe on notice that the US will meddle in its domestic politics. As I re-read the frightening section on Europe in the new National Security Strategy of the United States, I couldn’t help but recall, with a rueful chuckle, a book titled The Postnational Constellation, by one of Europe’s most influential contemporary philosophers, Juer...

  based on $320 in earnings and a 24 times earnings valuation. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-last-major-wall-street-bank-to-set-its-2026-target-forecasts-double-digit-gains-for-the-s-p-500-de462b0a Much better off going with the herd They don’t want to be what investor Mark Kritzman calls “wrong and alone.”  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/10/much-better-off-going-with-herd.html

Den nya amerikanska säkerhetsstrategin markerar ett tydligt brott med den transatlantiska alliansens värden och USA:s tidigare roll som den fria världens ledare Gunnar Hökmark. DI 8 december 2025 https://www.di.se/debatt/usa-inte-langre-den-fria-varldens-ledare/ https://hokmark.eu/ Donald Trump’s assault on the EU has opened rifts within the bloc’s executive and set national leaders at odds, threatening to paralyse Europe’s response over fears that standing up to the US will hurt Ukraine. Trump has lambasted EU leaders as “weak” and issued a security strategy that called for “cultivating resistance” on the continent, reflecting disdain for European institutions that his officials see as “adverse” to US interests and bent on “civilisational suicide”. FT 15 December 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/294c24e6-0647-4ebb-ab08-278061e8fe19 USA:s nya säkerhetsstrategi hänger dåligt ihop och är fyllt av motsägelser och omöjliga förhoppningar.  Om man bortser från det speciella och ibland bar...

A few striking similarities, and some notable differences. The race to build data centers is extreme, with investment figures in the trillions thrown around by leading AI developers. Spending is so large that economists say it’s making up a significant share of gross domestic product growth. Companies that sell the equivalent of picks and shovels to the gold rush have done extremely well. Individuals are dominating stock trading, again betting big on tiny loss-making companies Ultimately, whether this is a bubble depends on whether it pops. If it turns out AI can’t deliver both the promised productivity gains and fat profits for its creators, the parallel will be to the painful dot-com aftermath, not the boom. James Mackintosh WSJ Dec. 13, 2025 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-eerie-parallels-between-ai-mania-and-the-dot-com-bubble-f99be6fe Sällan har investerare varit besatta av ett ämne så till synes banalt som den korrekta avskrivningsplanen för anläggningstillgångar Michael B...

With the world in mortal crisis throughout the 1930s, the leading capitalist intellectuals of the day met in a series of fraught conferences. Horrified by the advances of totalitarianism, economists like John Maynard Keynes, Friedrich Hayek, Karl Polanyi and Ludwig von Mises clashed, tried to understand what had gone wrong and sought a version of capitalism that people would accept. Today’s intellectual ferment among capitalists is uncomfortably similar. It’s no longer left to socialists or progressives to criticize free markets. Capitalists themselves are convinced they are facing the gravest crisis since the 1930s.  The Harvard historian Sven Beckert just published an immensely ambitious 1,300-page tome simply titled Capitalism.  https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/541160/capitalism-by-sven-beckert/ His book is the latest in a stream of interventions that all start from the assumption that capitalism needs to be fixed, from The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism, by the Fi...

 EU tar i på skarpen mot Schein och Temu EU:s finansministrar enades på fredagen om att införa en tull på tre euro, motsvarande drygt 30 svenska kronor, på alla småpaket som importeras till unionen. Införandet av tullen ska motverka strömmen av billiga importvaror från företag som Shein och Temu och avgiften ska införas från och med den 1 juli 2026.  Svensk Handel välkomnar beslutet. SvT 12 december 2025 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/snabbkollen/ny-tullavgift-pa-smapaket Sverige tillhör de länder som e-handlar allra mest. Enbart under oktober månad i fjol handlade 600.000 svenskar från kinesiska e-handelsplattformar som Temu och Shein Regeringen är positiv till frihandel och konkurrens - men https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/regeringen-tar-krafttag-mot-shein-och.html China Forces Reckoning in Europe as Trade Turns Existential China’s exports are putting it on a collision course with Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron has branded the trade imbalance with China “unbea...

Bank’s stock traded midday at more than $55.08, its previous all-time high from 2006 In early 2008, Bank of America acquired Countrywide Financial, one of the biggest home loan providers in the U.S.  In September 2008, it agreed to merge with the brokerage and investment bank Merrill Lynch, which had problems stemming from its exposure to mortgage-backed securities and other securitized debt.  Such issues had just led to the explosive bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers that same month.  After the deal was agreed to in December 2008, Bank of America learned that losses from Merrill were billions of dollars more than expected, and it tried to back out.  Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson torpedoed the idea on financial-stability grounds. Bank of America, like most large banks in the country, borrowed tens of billions of dollars from the U.S. government’s  Troubled Asset Relief Program  From Lehman to Liberation Day to help avoid collapse, which it repaid in 2009. WSJ...

  Stockholmsbörsen vände plötsligt till rött   efter att AI-oro satt skräck i USA-börserna.  https://www.di.se/live/stockholmsborsen-vande-plotsligt-till-rott/ Ekonomin ser bättre ut än på länge, åtminstone tills nästa svängning kommer.  En lustig sak med alla dessa svängningar är att man sällan märker när de är på väg. Jon Åsberg Fokus 2025-12-11 https://www.fokus.se/kronika/lat-oss-borja-njuta-redan-nu/ 18.40 AI-frossan tog ett rejält grepp om Wall Street – där samtliga index stängde i rött.  Nasdaqs kompositindex backade mest och flera tunga AI-bolag faller rejält.  https://www.di.se/live/ai-frossa-sankte-wall-street-infor-helge/ Buy the dip? Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/buy-dip.html Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/wall-street-11-december-2025.html

  70% of people in countries that are part of the euro currency believe membership in that bloc is good for them Americans and others who argue for breaking up or “abolishing” the EU—as Elon Musk has amid a recent regulatory feud with Brussels—merely make themselves look out of touch.   Joseph C. Sternberg WSJ Dec. 11, 2025 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-white-house-misreads-u-s-interests-in-europe-97323fce

Fast-track entry to bloc being discussed by US and Ukrainian officials backed by Brussels in drive to end Russia’s war The latest version comes as Donald Trump steps up pressure on Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree a peace deal by Christmas. Officials supportive of Ukraine’s EU ambitions said the European Commission now understands it should not derail the peace process by opposing the rapid timeline for Kyiv’s membership. FT 12 december 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/e50481a3-161c-4002-83e4-cae0be12799e "the future of Ukraine belongs with the EU," said EU President Herman Van Rompuy.  Gavin Hewitt BBC Europe editor 2 March 2014 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/den-realistiska-skolan-majdan-och-krim.html Centralisera makten över euron, skapa en särskild räddningsfond och gör det möjligt för Bryssel att beskatta invånarna i eurozonen. Så ser planen ut för att rädda euron på lång sikt, enligt ett förslag som EU-kommissionens ordförande José Manuel Barro...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates Från arkivet  

  China now has the biggest power grid the world has ever seen.  Between 2010 and 2024, its power production increased by more than the rest of the world combined. Last year, China generated more than twice as much electricity as the U.S. Some Chinese data centers are now paying less than half what American ones pay for electricity.  WSJ 10 december 2025 https://www.wsj.com/tech/china-ai-electricity-data-centers-d2a86935?   The U.S. trade deficit has fallen to its lowest monthly level in five years, as trade patterns adjust to President Trump's steep tariffs. The year-to-date trade deficit is 17% larger than in the first nine months of 2024—partly reflecting a flood of imports at the start of the year as U.S. companies stocked up before tariffs landed. WSJ 11 december 2025 https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/u-s-trade-deficit-fell-to-5-year-low-in-september-ff6a240d The $8.7bn increase in exports in September mostly comprised a $6.1bn increase in non-monetary gold ship...

skicka dem till Ukraina, stärka landet i förhandlingarna mellan USA och Putin, markera att aggression har ekonomiska konsekvenser och positionera sig som en maktpolitisk aktör som det får konsekvenser att utmana? Dilemmat ligger i att användningen av medlen på detta sätt kan vara ett brott mot internationell rätt, vilket är en av de saker Ukraina försvarar på plats för vår räkning. Centralbankerna i Asien och Mellanöstern har uttryckt oro. Om EU konfiskerar ryska medel, vilka garantier har andra länder för att deras medel inte påverkas i en framtida konflikt? Staters tillgångar skyddas enligt internationell rätt. Statlig suveränitet och statlig immunitet är inte akademiska juridiska begrepp – de utgör själva grunden för internationell finans.  Om man bryter med dem riskerar man att undergräva hela systemet man själv är en del av. Men gäller detta också när kontinenten befinner sig i existentiell kris? Titeln på Alexander Stubbs debattartikel i Foreign Affairs med titeln ”The West's...

I have lived through several bubbles and read about others. One might think the losses experienced when past bubbles popped would discourage the next one from forming. But that has not happened yet, and I am sure it never will.  “this time it’s different”. Those four words are heard in virtually every bubble. On the other hand, Sir John Templeton, who first drew my attention to those four words, was quick to point out that 20 per cent of the time things really are different.  The sceptics include a lack of clarity regarding the ultimate source of profits from the AI boom and who will receive them.  Given the vast potential of AI but also the large number of enormous unknowns, virtually no one can say for sure whether investors are behaving irrationally.  Howard Marks co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital Management and author of ‘Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side’ FT 9 december 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/353eda37-33b0-4d30-a912-a0760...

Revolut is the breakaway success of the UK financial and technology sectors. In the decade since it was founded in London, it has become Europe’s most valuable tech start-up since Spotify. It has 65mn customers in 39 countries and was valued at $75bn in a recent funding round — about the same as the 260-year-old Lloyds Bank. Revolut was last year granted a UK banking licence with restrictions, three years after it first applied, while other fintechs already hold full banking licences.  It has 12mn UK customers but it is waiting for limits to be lifted as its risk and anti-money laundering controls are probed.  Revolut did not tell regulators before a filing for his family office showed that he had moved his residency from the UK to the UAE, where he also has a home. Britain should be glad to have Revolut, even if its leader is rather mobile. John Gapper chief UK business columnist of the Financial Times 10 december 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/2295c410-7939-445e-b112-b58d98...

Vad som inom statskunskapen benämns den realistiska skolan.  Redan i samband med den ryska Krimannekteringen 2014 förklarade John Mearsheimer, professor vid University of Chicago och en inflytelserik företrädare för denna skolbildning, att krigets orsak bestod av två delar:  dels EU:s och USA:s insisterande på att förflytta Ukraina från Rysslands ”intressesfär”, för att i stället integrera landet i västledda institutioner; dels deras stöd för demokratiska rörelser i Östeuropa För att få sin historieskrivning att hålla samman inför Mearsheimer en variabel som vanligtvis inte skulle anses relevant för den realistiska skolbildningen – den så kallade Majdan-revolutionen, som i februari 2014 ledde till att den dåvarande ukrainska presidenten, Viktor Janukovitj, tvingades bort från makten. Här anammar Mearsheimer Kremls narrativ om att det rörde sig om en ”statskupp”, oaktat den omständighet att Janukovitj genom sin våldsanvändning mot tusentals demonstranter förlorat sin legitimite...

  Uppåt på Wall Street – Polestar kollapsade Fed sänkte som väntat räntan till 3,5–3,75 procent. https://www.di.se/live/uppat-pa-wall-street-polestar-kollapsade/ Familjen Wallenbergs maktbolag Investor ett nytt kursrekord –  en kort stund ett börsvärde på över 1.000 miljarder kronor. DI 10 december 2025 https://www.di.se/live/wallenbergs-jatte-sprangde-dromgrans-efter-mystiskt-rally/ Trump Despises Europe. We Can’t Ignore That Anymore https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/trump-despises-europe-we-cant-ignore.html Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/buy-dip.html Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/wall-street-9-december-2025.html

”Vi tror på europeiskt samarbete och den fransk-tyska vänskapen. Men Dassault struntar i båda av egoistiska skäl”, skriver IG Metalls vicechef Jürgen Kerner i ett brev till den Tysklands försvarsminister och finansminister. På bolagsnivå representeras Frankrike av Dassault Aviation i FCAS, den franska stridsflygstillverkaren som tillverkar franska stridsflyget Rafale. Schismen grundas i stridsflygssamarbetet Future Combat Air System (FCAS), som är ett samarbete mellan Tyskland, Frankrike och Spanien och som väntas kräva satsningar över 1.000 miljarder kronor.  DI 10 december 2025 https://www.di.se/live/kravet-kasta-ut-saabs-rival-fran-samarbete-om-stridsflyg/ Storbråk hotar europeiskt stridsflyg Samtidigt rullar ett annat stort stridsflygprojekt vidare på andra håll i Europa. Där samarbetar Storbritannien med Italien och har då även med Japan som en viktig partner. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/storbrak-hotar-europeiskt-stridsflyg.html Trump Despises Europe. We Can’t Ig...

The megadeal is back and so is Wall Street’s immense appetite for debt. Much of the price tag on those deals gets paid for with debt.  Debt-heavy deals mean large paydays for shareholders but also more risks for bond investors when credit markets are showing signs of overexuberance.  And would-be acquirers have more choices than ever: The corporate-bond, syndicated-loan and private-credit markets are all whirring at the same time. WSJ 9 December 2025 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/massive-debt-fueled-deals-are-back-on-wall-street-22c94ac5

The European Union’s former top diplomat Josep Borrell describes the NSS document as “a declaration of political war.” He calls on European leaders to stop pretending Trump is not our foe, “hiding behind a fateful and complacent silence.” Josep Borrell   https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/08/sager-nabila-massrali-talesperson-for.html https://www.eeas.europa.eu/_en RE: Make France Great Again From Political Direction to Military Action: advancing European Defence-Readiness 2030 https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/political-direction-military-action-advancing-european-defence-readiness-2030_en The President hates the EU, which he characterizes as a “racket” to “screw” America. He’s openly committed to the bloc’s weakening, if not outright destruction.  The EU’s recent imposition of a $140 million fine on Elon Musk’s X for alleged violations of social-media regulations was described by Secretary of State Marco Rubio as “an attack on all American tech platforms and the Americ...