Englund

The Sargasso Sea, an elliptical area of the Atlantic around Bermuda, is a model for global markets in the depths of this hot summer. An area of relative calm caused by the space between four major Atlantic currents. As for the obvious geopolitical risks, there is a belief — correct or otherwise — that the market has a handle on them, and that they are less than catastrophic.  Equanimity is a state of psychological stability and composure which is undisturbed by the experience of or exposure to emotions, pain, or other phenomena that may otherwise cause a loss of mental balance.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equanimity Whether markets are right to be this confident is another question. Meanwhile, the greatest risk, also diminished slightly by the slowdown in the recent data, comes from bonds.  But as it stands, Great Earnings + Goldilocks Economic Data + Absence of News = Continued Calm.  Just like eels must leave the Sargasso, this cannot go on indefinitely, but wi...

Men vd Sandra Gadd är inte helt nöjd. ”Kvartalet belastas fortfarande av kostnader som jag tycker är för höga”, skriver hon. https://www.di.se/live/kjell-och-company-bryter-dyster-trend/

Vad är en Jordan B Peterson i sina udda kostymer och pladder om humrars av gud givna hierarkiska ordning annat än verklighetens Dr. Fox? När allt handlar om genomslag så blir formen, karisman, skamlösheten överställt allt. För att det funkar. Något som har smittat av sig på dagens politiska retorik. Johannes Klenell DN 5 juni 2026 https://www.dn.se/kultur/johannes-klenell-tror-ebba-busch-att-valjarna-ar-dumma-i-huvudet/ Fotnot: Jag gillar både Ebba och Jordan.  

Trump’s new right sees the continent as both ancestral home and ideological battleground. From the vice-president down, US officials have cast themselves as being on a mission to save western civilisation from the continent they see as its cradle.  Mass migration, curbs on speech and the surrender of national sovereignty, they argue, threaten not only the transatlantic relationship but the very idea of Europe. “We don’t save the west if Europe doesn’t get its act together,” said Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, the conservative think-tank that helped to draw up the agenda for Donald Trump’s second term.  “I’ve been worried for a long time, for the better part of two decades, that Europe was committing civilisational suicide.”  “The civilisation that we’re defending is 3,500 years old,” he added, tracing it back through Jerusalem, Athens, Rome, London and Philadelphia.  Maga’s stark new theory of the Atlantic alliance was set out by the US vice-pre...

Central banks may be accidentally subsidizing government borrowing through their efforts to prevent a repeat of past market blowups, and policymakers are starting to worry that anticrisis lending facilities could even be interfering with their own monetary policy. The source of the problem is the switch from central banks being the lender of last resort to, in 2008 and 2020, also being market makers of last resort, ensuring corporate—and government—debt markets keep functioning. During a crisis, support is often essential to prevent a downward spiral that destroys the financial system. But backstopping markets removes a key risk and encourages more borrowing—especially for the hedge funds that now own trillions of dollars of U.S. Treasurys. The scale is extraordinary: The Dallas Fed estimates hedge funds ended last year with $2.4 trillion of Treasurys, up from $600 billion a decade earlier.  Because the profits on each trade are tiny, hedge funds have to leverage as much as 100 tim...

The plans include a short-term fix for an ailing reservoir and longer-term efforts to keep the river flowing. It is unclear how effective these measures will be. The Colorado River provides water for 40 million people and more than 5 million acres of farmland. But drought and overuse have drained its reservoirs. Wall Street Journal Aug. 16, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/us-news/climate-environment/the-colorado-river-is-shrinking-see-how-authorities-are-trying-to-save-it-d43ff9fa Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir in the United States, provides water and electricity to millions in the West.  It has now has shrunk to its lowest level on record, in the latest sign of the alarming crisis unfolding on the drought-stricken Colorado River. CNN 16 August 2026 https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/16/climate/lake-powell-reservoir-record-low-colorado-river The Colorado River Is on the Brink of Disaster, 40 Million People Rely Years of drought and political brinkmanship have pushed the waterway t...

A mobile game made by a developer in Manchester has recently beaten the global phenomenon Minecraft to top Apple's paid games chart.  Its success is perhaps even more surprising given its subject matter - UK politics. No 10: Full Confidence by Benjamin Brewis sees players take on the role of prime minister, making decisions through a wave of parliamentary scenarios and trying to remain in power for as long as possible. BBC 16 August 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq56pzqy6jvo https://fullconfidence.co.uk/

När jag gick i nian fick vi se en film i skolan om klimatkrisen. Jag hade nyss fyllt femton och blivit lite samhällsintresserad. Vidden av klimatkrisen hade jag dock inte förstått innan läraren släckte ner klassrummet och satte på projektorn. På duken visades en liten ensam isbjörn på ett drivande isflak. Glaciärer som kalvade och enorma isblock som rasade ner i havet. Skogar i lågor med flera meter höga eldväggar. Döda träd som sträckte sig mot himlen. Scenerna ackompanjerades av dramatisk musik och experter som förkunnade att slutet var nära. Jag uppfattade två budskap. Det ena var att vi måste göra något nu. Det andra var att det förmodligen redan var för sent. Tankarna for i huvudet. Å ena sidan: Det här kan omöjligt vara sant, för i så fall skulle jag redan ha vetat om det. Det skulle vara det enda människor pratade om. Å andra sidan: Varför skulle skolan visa en film om något som inte var sant? Varför skulle experter säga något som inte stämde? När jag försökte prata med mina vän...

Even now, when weather records are being broken, when climate change is demonstrably here, not in the future, we seem frozen.  We still go about our carbon-greedy lives: snapping up the last air-conditioning unit, booking another flight, seeking solace in the pathetic fallacy of recycling things we maybe didn’t need at all. It’s not that we don’t care. Multiple studies across the world find the majority of people now take climate change very seriously. But the scale of the thing can mire us in apathy. Shouting “fire” doesn’t work. I’ve learnt from experience that doom-mongering leads people either to turn away or become overwhelmed by the scale of the problem. Camilla Cavendish Financial Times 15 August 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/63a28eea-9d73-487b-bb46-34530e215fce?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Climate action does not seem to be a priority for the German government — despite record temperatures, heat-related deaths and drought. Why aren't more people taking to the streets in protest? https:...

A dangerous view is creeping into the markets that the US has already gone so far down the path of a debt compound trap that it dare not raise interest rates to control inflation. The US treasury has to roll over $6tn of debt every three months in an increasingly sceptical market, as well as issuing $2tn of new debt annually to cover the worst structural deficit in US peacetime history. The critical point is that the whole US financial and fiscal system has never been so sensitive to short-term interest rates. Kevin Warsh, the untested new Fed chairman, faces an invidious choice. Warsh struggled to articulate a coherent intellectual argument after the most recent policy meeting for why he was not raising rates.  He could not explain how he intends to bring stubborn US inflation back towards the 2pc target when it is clearly going the other way. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 11 August 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/08/11/ingredients-coming-together-us-fiscal-fina...

Att USA säljer euro för att stötta den japanska yenen riktar fokus mot landets egna förment riskfria obligationer. USA:s och Japans gemensamma insats för att skicka upp värdet på den japanska yenen.  1985 Plaza Accord. Detta avtal undertecknades på Plaza Hotel i New York efter att USA drivit på för att försvaga dollarn genom att hota med kraftiga importtullar efter att bytesbalansen hade blivit kraftigt negativ och den amerikanska globala konkurrenskraften försvagats. USA fick då igenom en kraftig revalvering av framför allt den japanska yenen och den västtyska D-marken.  På tre år sjönk den amerikanska dollarn med nästan 50 procent mot en handelsvägs korg av andra valutor. RE: När dollarn försvagas går kronan upp. Dollarn kostade drygt fem kronor 1992. Men den kursen skulle försvaras, ansåg Carl Bildt som ville avskaffa kronan och ansluta oss till euron.  Något har hänt med de amerikanska statsobligationerna. Räntan har stadigt tickat uppåt relativt inflationen under lån...

  Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and Apollo Global Management  had been working tirelessly for months to draw up debt deals  that would help developers of artificial intelligence systems pay for chips from Nvidia Corp. With slow progress on the complex deals, Nvidia’s chief executive officer, Jensen Huang, decided to change tack. He went public this week with the effort, saying the group is aiming to collectively finance AI computing deals totaling $500 billion — a round figure with no obvious provenance. Bloomberg 14 August 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-14/nvidia-s-500-billion-plan-envelops-wall-street-in-its-ai-frenzy

S&P 500 companies reported $2.64 trillion of combined net income over the last four quarters. However, a big chunk of the earnings consisted of paper gains from marking up equity investments in other companies. Last quarter, “other income” at Amazon and Alphabet, Google’s parent company, totaled roughly $121 billion combined after taxes, almost all of it from investment gains. Street earnings are whatever earnings metric a majority of analysts covering a company adopt, whether non-GAAP or GAAP. These in turn make their way into the most widely collected earnings data for the S&P 500 and other indexes.  Jonathan Weil Wall Street Journal Aug. 14, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-121-billion-in-one-time-gains-boosting-big-techs-profits-5d2201da Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gaap.asp

  https://www.ft.com/content/5ca83d6d-2c13-4d5e-b564-881f89189b3e?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Corporate profits are soaring, but they aren’t all created equal.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/corporate-profits-are-soaring-but-they.html Rwanda just became the first country to start EU talks on hosting refugee return hubs alongside Uganda. It was confirmed on 6 August, but Kigali’s track record makes a mockery of  European claims that migrants’ rights will be respected in third countries. “Return hubs in third countries and other innovative solutions outside Europe must be implemented,” Frederiksen and Meloni added, in a joint post on social media on Monday (10 August). euobserver 12 August 2026 https://euobserver.com/232169/rwanda-revealed-as-eus-first-migrant-return-hub-but-whats-in-it-for-kigali/ Folkmordet i Rwanda https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folkmordet_i_Rwanda Rwanda https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwanda Trots att oljepriset under veckan har stigit från 81 dollar till ...

  In the last few decades of the 20th century, the go-to geopolitical board game for many teenagers was Risk . It is like playing the Great Game, as the 19th-century contest for Central Asia was known. The Great Game was a rivalry between the 19th-century British and Russian empires over influence in Central Asia, primarily in Afghanistan, Persia, and Tibet.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Game It is time for an update. Why does the game not include nuclear-armed Pakistan? The case for Pakistan’s elevation to the Risk board has no moral dimension. Its semi-feudal military-led political class has misruled for much of the country’s existence. The wildly popular opposition leader, Imran Khan is in prison. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/10-juli-iran-has-demanded-us-30y-japan.html The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, as the new pact is known, is the latest in a diplomatic pas de deux by Pakistan’s de facto leader, Field Marshal Asim Munir, https://englundmacro.blogspo...

Thirty-four years ago, a brilliant young hedge-fund manager helped engineer a $1 billion payday for his employer by betting a major currency would be devalued. He made a similar killing two decades later. When Bessent helped George Soros break the pound on “Black Wednesday” in 1992, he reckoned that the country’s floating-rate mortgages made it politically painful for Britain to raise interest rates to prop it up. Too painful, it turned out. Japan’s recent intervention to strengthen the yen without raising its own rates got a very rare assist from America. That’s what friends are for, said President Trump. “They wanted a little bit of help. And we’re always there for Japan. Japan’s been very good to us, with the exception, of course, of Pearl Harbor.” Spencer Jakab Wall Street Journal Aug. 13, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/japanese-drama-is-no-sideshow-for-u-s-markets-b92be149

Sverigedemokraterna poserar gärna med folköl framför röda stugor med vita knutar. De saknar det levande folkhemmet där allt var gemytligt och trevligt. Till och med typsnittet i deras valkampanj andas svenskt 80-tal.  Sedan följer resonemangen om att något gått förlorat. Sverige är otryggt och elever tar ledigt för att fira eid. Enligt Åkesson beror detta främst på ansvarslös migration. Det vill säga invandrarna.  I själva verket pekar mycket på att det är medelklassen som har sprungit iväg med Sverigedemokraternas dröm. Ibland när jag är i Lund tänker jag på det gamla Sverige. Ett homogent trevligt folk där till och med de hemlösa är etniska svenskar och hälsar på en. Längs kullerstensgatorna finns butiker med bemannad personal och på morgonen cyklar folk till jobbet förbi anrika byggnader.  I jämförelse med Malmö verkar tiden ha stått still. Problemet är att merparten av SD-väljarna inte har råd att flytta dit, mycket beroende på att de ofta har lägre utbildningsnivå. ...

Det svenska bolaget Legora är på jakt efter nya pengar. I diskussioner med investerare uppges AI-juristen vilja ha en värdering på närmare 100 miljarder kronor. Legora, med Max Junestrand som vd och medgrundare, är Sveriges näst högst värderade AI-bolag efter Lovable.  På onsdagen stod det klart att Lovable tar in 3,8 miljarder färska kronor till en värdering på motsvarande 127 miljarder kronor. DI 13 augusti 2026 https://www.di.se/live/uppgifter-svenskt-ai-bolag-vill-varderas-till-nastan-100-miljarder/   Legora https://legora.com/   Lovable  https://lovable.dev/

Extremely high temperatures of over 35 C  forecast for France, Spain and Italy. Millions of people across Europe on Wednesday were set for more extreme heat, as yet another heat wave descends on the world's fastest-warming continent. In France, Italy and Spain, some 92 million people are expected to swelter in temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) on Wednesday. Some 300 million people — more than half Europe's population — will see temperatures pass 30 C. The German Weather Service has forecast highs on Wednesday of 34 C.  Temperatures are set to climb to 37 C on Thursday and as high as 39 C by Friday for much of western and southern Germany. Deutsche Welle 12 August 2026  https://www.dw.com/en/europe-braces-for-next-heat-wave/a-78334723 Warning for extreme heat will come into effect across a large swathe of the UK on Thursday, with temperatures set to soar as high as 38C  BBC 13 August 2026 https://www.bbc.com/weather/articles/ce85pj0e20p...

How to stop global warming. The answer is obvious.  Two words, the first one starts with N. That’s right. Net zero.  Scientists have understood for years that net zero is the point at which global warming stops, meaning temperatures cease rising.   If you don’t get to net zero, the world will continue warming, and all the things we’re seeing at the moment will get more intense  For the record, the chances of reaching net zero soon are remote. The longer we wait to reach net zero, the higher the eventual peak temperature will be, and the worse the associated damage.  And please don’t say your country’s net zero efforts are pointless when it only accounts for a few per cent of global emissions. This buck-passing claim is made in dozens of countries, even though their combined emissions exceed China’s. The cost of climate action cannot be ignored, but nor can the cost of inaction. Pilita Clark Financial Times 12 August 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/e16ec916-...

Washington gick häromdagen in och stödköpte yen för att bromsa valutans fall efter att den nått sin svagaste nivå mot dollarn på omkring 40 år. ”Även om en förstärkning av yenen skulle minska värdet av utländska vinster, är det osannolikt att de senaste interventionerna för att stärka valutan kommer att försämra exportföretagens vinstutsikter för helåret i någon större utsträckning” säger Harumi Taguchi, chefsekonom för Japan vid S&P Global Market Intelligence i Tokyo. DI 11 augusti 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/vinstfest-i-japan-jattarna-star-emot-i-oron/ For the U.S., a weak yen is a potential problem because Japan is the world’s biggest single holder of U.S. Treasurys. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/4-augusti-last-chance-for-iran.html