Englund

  Under dagen har tre fartyg attackerats i Hormuzsundet. Iran har uppgett att sundet, där en femtedel av världens olja passerar, är stängt. https://www.di.se/live/irans-hot-olja-pa-200-dollar-fatet/ Det är väl bara tillfälligt. Buy the dip. OBS Ironi  Börsen stängde nedåt och endast tre av de 30 bolagen i storbolagsindexet OMXS30  – med Saab och EQT i botten –  avslutar dagen på plus. https://www.di.se/live/rod-stangning-pa-borsen-tungt-for-saab/ Many private-credit funds have seen heavy outflows, as investors worry about their exposure to middle-market software companies, which were the recipients of lending during a 2021 wave of deals. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-in-private-credit-as-jpmorgan-reportedly-tightening-lending-while-a-33-bln-fund-sees-heavy-redemptions-f4019e8d https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/nonbanks Inflationen i USA kom in i linje med förväntningarna https://www.di.se/live/inflationen-i-usa-kom-in-i-linje-med-forvantnin...

 rapporterar tidningen Financial Times. Bolaget är en av Klarnas stora konkurrenter .  https://www.di.se/digital/klarna-konkurrenten-pa-vag-att-fa-banklicens/ Revolut to secure full UK banking licence after four-year wait.  Permit is crucial to growth strategy of Europe’s most valuable fintech https://www.ft.com/content/b4df4126-351e-4424-9707-8a12ca6b79a6 Min nya bank; Den brittiska nätbanken Revolut planerar att etablera sig i 30 nya länder. RE: Testing with interest. Ha, Ha. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/min-nya-bank-den-brittiska-natbanken.html

  Energy Secretary Deletes Tweet Saying U.S. Escorted Tanker Through Strait of Hormuz Vita Huset: USA har inte eskorterat oljetanker Iran’s conventional military has been largely destroyed and it can’t stop US and Israeli air attacks, but... Mining the Strait of Hormuz, using anti-ship missiles against tankers or destroying the Gulf’s oil infrastructure could lead to peace negotiations — or global turmoil, with energy shortages and spiraling inflation.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/iran-s-strait-choke-hold-a-potent-weapon-even-as-military-wilts Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days, the sources said.  But Iran still retains upward of 80% to 90% of its small boats and mine layers, one of the sources said, so its forces could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/10/politics/iran-begins-laying-mines-in-strait-of-horm...

Mellan 1960 och 1975 hade de svenska reallönerna ökat med 67 procent.  RE: Hopp från 1975 till 1980. Men sen frös utvecklingen. Köpkraften 1980 var lika stor som 1990. Alla fick det sämre. Fredrik Segerfeldt, programansvarig på tankesmedjan Timbro, tar avstamp i 70-talet och konstaterar att Sverige då var världens fjärde rikaste land.  Men i stället för att se till att landet behöll sin ledande position, präglades 80-talet av försök att socialisera näringslivet via löntagarfonder och en politik som ledde till stagnation.  Bara på 18 år, från 1975 till 1993, föll Sverige till plats 11 i välståndsligan.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2008/02/sverige-slpar-inte-lngre-efter.html   Bean Khalil DI-ledare 10 mars 2026 https://www.di.se/ledare/borgerligheten-maste-vaga-bli-optimister-igen/ Politiskt ledarskap handlar mer om att navigera på en flod än att försöka bestämma färdriktningen Håkan Boström Ledarskribent i Göteborgs-Posten, Axess 3 mars 2026 https://englund...

En slutsats man kan dra är att regeringar har svårt att bedriva en politik som avviker från de ramar som sätts av omvärlden, teknik­utvecklingen och konjunkturerna.  När man försöker ”forma samhället” i en viss riktning leder det ofta till oavsedda konsekven­ser.  Hade svensk borgerlighet varit mindre splittrad och haft förmågan att vinna val redan under de goda tiderna på 1950-talet, hade det med all säkerhet gjort ett större avtryck på det svenska samhället än vad de sentida borgerliga regeringarna lyckades åstadkomma.  Då hade man kanske kunnat bevara mer av den ursprungligt borgerliga samhällsmiljön och skapa mer konstruktiva stigar framåt.  Som det blev har man i stället fått ägna sig åt att reparera och marknadisera ett i grunden social­demokratiskt samhällsbygge.  Håkan Boström Ledarskribent i Göteborgs-Posten, Axess 3 mars 2026 https://www.axess.se/samhalle/50-ar-sedan-ett-historiskt-maktskifte/? RE: Nu har en svensk regering till huvuduppgift att implem...

  The war has pulled the world more deeply than ever into the disorienting vortex that has already defined American life in the whiplash era of Donald Trump’s tear-it-down politics. The US’ and Israel’s opening strikes — which killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — sent off a regional pandemonium. European and Middle Eastern governments were confronted with a sudden war that wasn’t theirs and that most didn’t want.  Officials scrambled to rescue citizens trapped in a widening combat zone. Soaring energy prices battered fragile economies and uproar rocked domestic politics. In the Gulf, US allies faced a drone and missile barrage that shattered the opulent calm of gleaming glass cities springing from the desert and shut down a global aviation crossroads. But despite the administration’s triumphalism and the determination of his critics to compare America’s newest war to the Iraq quagmire, it’s too early to fairly judge how the war might end. Relentless US and Is...

I Rapport i dag säger hon samma sak: Högre   oljepris ger högre inflation och därför kan det snarare bli räntehöjningar i stället för de väntade sänkningarna. https://www.svtplay.se/video/eDvvz3v/rapport/ikvall-19-30 - Räntesänkning kan vi nog se oss i stjärnorna efter. — Den dörren är helt stängd nu, säger Susanne Spector, chefsekonom på Danske Bank . Snarare ligger en höjning närmast till hands, enligt Spector som även anar en svacka på bostadsmarknaden som en effekt av de oroliga tiderna.  https://nyheter24.se/nyheter/ekonomi/naringsliv/1466065-oljepriset-tokrusar-dyrare-el-mat-och-hot-om-hojd-ranta Det skall genast sägas att hon inte är ensam om att vara så dum. De flesta som kommenterar marknaden säger detsamma. Men för medborgarna blir dyrare olja och bensin som en skattehöjning. Det blir mindre kvar i plånboken för andra saker. Därmed kyls ekonomin ner. Varför skall man då höja räntan för att kyla ner ekonomin ytterligare? Det skall man naturligtvis inte.  Men...

Back in December he wrote about “AI Bubble” fears.  Significant changes since then made him feel obligated to write a follow-up piece. (Which is one of the things I admire about Howard. He never stops learning.) Working with the latest versions is a bit like exchanging text messages with what may increasingly become a good friend. But this friend is a world-class expert on everything, with a remarkable ability to explain it in exactly the terms you need. Claude - here’s what it said: “Howard, everything you know about investing came from other people. Benjamin Graham taught you about margin of safety. Buffett taught you about quality. Charlie Munger taught you about mental models from multiple disciplines. John Kenneth Galbraith taught you about the psychology of financial manias. You read thousands of books, memos, case studies, and annual reports over fifty years.  Every input was someone else’s thinking… The raw material came from others. The synthesis was yours. “All very ...

Wargen kommer; från Dip till Depp https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/wargen-kommer-fran-dip-till-depp-peter.html “When markets encounter a black swan, everything could fall at the same time,”   “That’s what we’re seeing today — selling across every corner from equities to bonds and currencies, except for oil and dollar.” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-tsunami-of-private-credit-losses.html https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-faller-hims-hers-rusar/ Sedan avtog den. Brent crude up 60% for the week https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/brent-crude-up-60-for-week.html The investment question now is whether signs of worry are a reason to buy the dip or a reason to get out. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/what-markets-are-telling-us-about-war.html Stockholmsbörsen fall mildrades likt oljeprisets uppgång.  Kinnevik föll blytungt med 17 procent efter att blankarfirman Ningi Research publicerat en kritisk rapport om investmentbolaget. https://www...

“The president kind of leans back in his chair and says, ‘You know you can tell a lot about a man by his shoe size,’ ” Vance said. “All the boys have them,” said a female White House official. Another joked, “It’s hysterical because everybody’s afraid not to wear them.” The shoe-salesman-in-chief is paying attention. Trump has fallen in love with Florsheim, the American brand that’s been pairing comfort and style for more than a century.  They’re also affordable: many cost $145. Wall Street Journal 9 March 2026 https://www.wsj.com/style/fashion/trump-florsheim-shoes-tucker-carlson-jd-vance-bessent-448567ab Your Back Hurts? Your Feet May Be the Problem https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/your-back-hurts-your-feet-may-be-problem.html

As the US-Iran conflicts steals our attention, the twin bubbles of private credit and AI are close to bursting. AI is proving a double threat, in that it is both obviously a bubble and threatens to defenestrate many of the companies on which current prosperity rests. Defenestration The term originates from two incidents in history, both occurring in Prague.  In 1419, seven town officials were thrown from the New Town Hall, precipitating the Hussite War.  In 1618, two Imperial governors and their secretary were tossed from the Prague Castle, sparking the Thirty Years' War.[7]  These incidents, particularly that in 1618, were referred to as the Defenestrations of Prague and gave rise to the term and the concept. We are little more than a week into renewed conflict in the Middle East, and already what the Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz called “the fog of war” has settled like a pall over the entire operation. In recent months we have also seen multiple inst...

The last commercial ship with no apparent link to Iran to transit Hormuz was the Chinese-owned bulk carrier Sino Ocean, which made the crossing on Saturday morning. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted following several attacks on merchant ships, with missile and drone activity posing a critical risk to all vessels in the vicinity. Bloomberg 8 March 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-08/hormuz-tracker-iran-linked-ships-are-the-only-ones-to-transit Hormuz https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=Hormuz+

Fredrik Warg, global chef över rådgivande förvaltning på SEB, säger att det just nu är mycket svårt att lägga ut en långsiktig marknadssyn. Det har länge varit en framgångsrik strategi att köpa börsdippar.  Men Peter Malmqvist varnar för att investerare inte kan räkna med att varje nedgång snabbt följs av en återhämtning. ”Den största risken är att det inte är en dipp, utan en anpassning till en lägre nivå.” ”Jag hissar en varningsflagga för den amerikanska börsen. Det här kommer sluta i förskräckelse. En dipp är en tillfällig nedgång som snabbt återhämtas – men ibland är det början på något betydligt värre, som under finanskrisen. Då pratar vi inte längre om en dipp, då går alla runt och deppar”, säger Peter Malmqvist. Semir Hasanbegovic DI 9 mars 2026, 09:31 https://www.di.se/nyheter/experterna-da-ska-du-kopa-dippen/

Bad midterms news for Trump. John Authera Bloomberg 9 March 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-03-09/iran-war-a-longer-conflict-is-already-here-for-markets IMF-chefen varnar för inflationssmäll Internationella valutafondens chef Kristalina Georgieva varnar för att kriget i Mellanöstern kommer att driva upp inflationen. En långvarig ökning av oljepriserna med 10 procent skulle resultera i en ökning av den globala inflationen med 0,4 procentenheter. DI 9 mars 2026 https://www.di.se/live/imf-chefen-varnar-for-inflationssmall-efter-oljeprisrallyt/ Tungt ras? https://www.di.se/nyheter/stockholmsborsen-mot-tungt-fall-logiskt/

Monday 9 March 2026 is the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s Enlightenment masterpiece, The Wealth of Nations. Often misread as a prophet of laissez-faire, the father of modern economics would have radical remedies for the 21st century. Smith was not an advocate of laissez-faire; the phrase “invisible hand” occurs just once in The Wealth of Nations; and he did not oppose all state interventions in markets.  Indeed, he positively advocates a range of them, from specific forms of taxation to regulation of the banks. Jesse Norman Financial Times 22 June 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/6795a1a0-7476-11e8-b6ad-3823e4384287

The investment question now is whether signs of worry are a reason to buy the dip  or a reason to get out. History suggests investors should buy the dip. Legendary banker Nathan Mayer Rothschild probably never said to “buy when there’s blood in the streets,” but it neatly captures the idea that investors often panic when there’s a war on. When the market is truly swimming in red, will you actually have the guts to buy? Get ready. James Mackintosh Wall Street Journal March 7, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/what-the-markets-are-telling-us-about-the-war-in-the-gulf-4af5655e Dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/Dip Crash https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/crash

Hotet från kinesisk och amerikansk imperialism har gjort att ett enat Europa också för nationalister framstår som fråga om kulturell överlevnad. Det var lätt att vara EU-vän när Bryssel befolkades av snälla Cecilia Malmström-typer som läste Dagens Nyheter, gillade handel och skänkte pengar till Rädda barnen.  Carl-Vincent Reimers  Programansvarig för Europafrågor på tankesmedjan Timbro. 23 februari 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/6q6mp8/snart-ar-sd-ocksa-eu-vanner Alltfler av Europas nationalister inser att vi behöver den gemensamma valutan. Det borde även gälla sverigedemokrater.  DI Ledare:Carl-Vincent Reimers 18 oktober 2024  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/sd-borde-andra-sig-om-euron-anser.html

As a doctor and a mother of five kids, I spend an awful lot of time on my feet. And even though I’m only 34, until recently, my back hurt pretty much all the time.  I assumed it was the predictable cost of my life: the lifting, the call nights, the pregnancies . I certainly didn’t think my shoes had anything to do with it. Then I met a patient who had spent years in the Marine Corps, hiking with a hundred-pound pack on his back. His spine was “completely destroyed,” he said. He had done what we doctors usually tell people to do. Eventually, desperate, he went looking on his own. What ultimately helped him was not another procedure, but learning how to stand, walk, and run differently.  My patient realized that his posture, his stride, and especially his shoes were all part of the same problem. He changed the way he moved and what he wore on his feet, slowly working to rebuild the architecture of the part of his body that has most contact with the ground.  His back pain re...

 Man anar bildning från Oxford. We might be witnessing the revenge of David Hume in the Middle East. The ideas of Scotland’s great 18th century philosopher, and friend of the father of economics Adam Smith, are best remembered now for their bracing if extreme skepticism. Hume summarized this most clearly as the “problem of induction.” In today’s terms, just because B has always followed A in the instances we have observed in the past does not prove that A caused B, or that A will always be followed by B.  In the language of modern economics, correlation does not mean causation.  George Soros’s approach to investing comes from the philosophy of science that he imbibed from Karl Popper, who held that an idea was useless if there was no way in which it might be shown to be false.  Nassim Taleb’s hugely influential concept of extreme but low-probability black swan events comes straight from a Hume thought experiment: Europeans thought all swans were white until they went...

Ur Läkartidningen Trots effektiva vacciner beräknas omkring 11 miljoner människor ha insjuknat i mässling 2024. Vaccinationstäckningen varierar i världen, med stora skillnader mellan låg- och höginkomstländer. Svenska mässlingsfall har oftast smittats utomlands eller via resenärer; majoriteten har varit ovaccinerade. De vanligaste smittländerna de senaste 10 åren har varit Thailand, Somalia, Polen och Rumänien, vilket speglar både resemönster och incidensen av mässling i dessa länder.  Två doser MPR-vaccin rekommenderas till alla som bedöms sakna immunitet. Hélène Englund epidemiolog, utredare, ­enheten för vaccinationer, avdelningen för smittskydd och beredskap, Folkhälso­myndigheten. https://lakartidningen.se/vetenskap/massling-global-utmaning-och-risk-for-svenska-resenarer/

  Tunga börsfall avslutade veckan på Wall Street Den första handelsveckan efter krigsutbrottet i Mellanöstern blev svängig, På börsen hade storbankerna en tung dag, där Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America och Goldman Sachs alla backade omkring 2 procent. https://www.di.se/live/tunga-borsfall-avslutade-veckan-pa-wall-street/ Bloomberg 3 March 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/blackrock-s-26-billion-private-credit-fund-limits-withdrawals https://www.di.se/live/stockholmsborsen-gar-mot-fredagslyft-man-far-folja-dag-for-dag/ Oxford, David Hume, Soros, Karl Popper, Black Swan, Iran and the Stock Market https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/oxford-david-hume-soros-karl-popper.html P recis som under torsdagen inleddes fredagen med stigande aktiekurser . Detta sedan New York-börserna rekylerat uppåt mot slutet av torsdagshandeln. Som mest var breda index upp 0,7 procent.  Men även på fredagen blev den inledande börsuppgången på Stockholmsbörsen kortvarig....