Englund

 The token fell as much as 10% Thursday to $65,344, the lowest since October 2024.  The rout has erased nearly half of Bitcoin’s value since it reached a record four months ago  and has spread to other tokens, related ETFs and companies like Strategy Inc. that hold vast sums of coins . Bloomberg February 5, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/bitcoin-drops-below-70-000-as-forced-deleveraging-accelerates 70.000 dollar, drygt 5.000 dollar under dagens kurs, ses generellt som en viktig stödnivå för bitcoin, som kan bli avgörande för den fortsatta utvecklingen. 4 februari https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/bitcoin-dips-below-70000-for-first-time.html

https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/trumps-attack-pa-europa-lojligt/ Donald Trump has probably done more to unite Europe than any European ever did. It’s an old tenet of political thought that to build a collective identity you need an enemy. An adversary can force your people to cohere. Hitler played that role for Britain, and the USSR for the US.  A technocratic economic union without enemies inspired little emotion. Nobody would die for the blue and gold flag, and only a few Ryder Cup ultras ever waved it at a sporting event.  In TV series and films, the hero fighting geopolitical baddies was almost always an American, not a European. Simon Kuper Financial Times 5 February 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/dc9e4a69-ff4b-4e4f-8999-e578f7ff5a0f Europe project requires a distinctly European form of nationalism Without a collective “we,” taxation feels like extortion, laws are perceived as an imposition by outsiders, and military service becomes difficult to justify.  Why co...

  Det är en tudelad AI-skräck som råder på marknaderna.  Den ena är att AI-bolagen har överinvesterat och att det kommer bli svårt att räkna hem alla miljarder som läggs på att bygga infrastruktur i vinster.   Det andra är oro för hur klassiska bolags intäkter ska påverkas av AI-konkurrenter.  https://www.di.se/live/breda-fall-pa-wall-street-finansbolag-ned-pa-ai-skrack/ Bitcoin Drops Below $70,000 The token fell as much as 10% Thursday to $65,344, the lowest since October 2024.  The rout has erased nearly half of Bitcoin’s value since it reached a record four months ago  Bloomberg February 5, 2026  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/bitcoin-drops-below-70000.html New York Stockholm Stockholm i dag torsdag 5 februari Trillion-Dollar Tech Wipeout The rout rippling through stock and credit markets was triggered by concern that AI is on the verge of supplanting the business models of a wide swathe of companies. Hundreds of billions of dollars ...

The key question is: How soon?  The earlier belief in Berlin and other capitals was that Russia wouldn’t be able to threaten NATO until 2029 or so. There is now a growing consensus that such a crisis could come much sooner —before Europe, which is expanding its own investment in defense, is in a position to fight back. President Vladimir Putin wants to resurrect the glories of the Russian Empire, making countries that were once part of it, such as the Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, obvious targets.  All of them have been members of the EU and NATO for two decades. In the exercise, Russia used the pretext of a humanitarian crisis in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampole, a key crossroads in the narrow gap between Russia and Belarus.  https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/a-wargame-shows-just-how-vulnerable-europe-is-to-a-russian-attack-12dfdbfa Kaliningrad https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/06/kaliningrad.html Sveri...

The price of bitcoin has briefly dipped below $70,000, its lowest price since October 2024. The crypto currency has now given up 44% since hitting a record high above $125,000 in October last year. MarketWatcg 5 February 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-mixed-amid-ai-software-angst-silver-dives-amazon-earnings/card/bitcoin-falls-below-70-000-for-first-time-since-2024-LRn5W9EtJmTmKyDGpICo 70.000 dollar, drygt 5.000 dollar under dagens kurs, ses generellt som en viktig stödnivå för bitcoin, som kan bli avgörande för den fortsatta utvecklingen. 4 februari https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/bitcoin-christoffer-de-geer-ar-vd-for-b.html

  Volvo Cars kursras på nära 20 procent samtidigt som Saab vänt ned. DI 5 februari 2026, 10:32 https://www.di.se/live/borsen-surnar-volvo-cars-rasar/ Mörkröd stängning – rapportkollaps i Volvo Cars Det blev en tung dag för Stockholmsbörsen. Det breda indexet OMXSPI föll 1 procent https://www.di.se/live/morkrod-stangning-rapportkollaps-i-volvo-cars/ Mörkrött? New York Wall Street 5 February 2026 Plötsligt är kronan på reträtt igen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/plotsligt-ar-kronan-pa-retratt-igen.html

Växelkursen hade på torsdagens förmiddag tappat 12 öre mot dollarn till 9 kronor blankt. Försvagningen inleddes i samband med publiceringen av Riksbankens senaste protokoll. Det avslöjade en direktion som var snäppet mindre orolig för hög inflation och mer för låg inflation, än tidigare signalerat. Nils Åkesson DI 5 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/analys/orden-fick-kronan-att-tappa-luften/

In Robert Harris’s The Second Sleep, the novelist imagines a world hundreds of years in the future where humanity has regressed to a mediaeval standard of living, population and way of thinking. Towards the end of the book we learn what might have caused this calamity: not a pandemic, meteorite strike or nuclear war but a complete collapse in the digital economy. From payment systems to just-in-time supply chains and the wealth of machinery that supports our lifestyles, the modern economy is almost wholly dependent on digital instruction. If everything went down all at the same time, a state of anarchy would rapidly establish itself. In the ensuing chaos, it would be every man for himself with likely devastating consequences for lives and civilisation more widely. It is admittedly hard to imagine what combination of circumstances might completely and lastingly disable the digital economy – nonetheless, cyber threats are very much a real, present and fast increasing danger. Once that de...

His showdown with Iran’s supreme leader will shape the region for a generation. Mr Trump has deployed a “beautiful armada” to the Middle East after the Iranian regime ignored his warnings not to massacre protesters last month.  Mr Khamenei, in turn, has warned him not to use it. “America should know that if it starts a war, this time it will be a regional war,” he said on February 1st. Mr Trump wants this to be their last stand-off.  Iran has never seemed more vulnerable. Through words or weapons, the president hopes to resolve America’s half-century-long conflict with the Islamic Republic.   The Economist 4 February 2026 https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/02/04/donald-trump-wants-to-end-americas-half-century-conflict-with-iran “beautiful armada” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/beautiful-armada.html

The idea of the debasement trade  has taken a bit of a beating over the past few days as the prices of gold and silver (and crypto coins) have fallen. King Dollar hasn’t looked so mighty of late, it still sits firmly on the throne as the world’s reserve currency. Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg February 3, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-03/real-nasties-lurk-behind-the-mythical-dollar-debasement-trade

”Stadsljus” med 364 nya bostäder i Norra Djurgårdsstaden blir ett 110 meter högt landmärke i Stockholms silhuett. Bostädernas storlekar spänner från 33 till 179 kvadratmeter, med prisklasser från 2 950 000 till 34 950 000 miljoner kronor. https://www.lidingonyheter.se/nu-kan-du-kopa-en-lagenhet-i-stockholms-nya-110-meter-hoga-landmarke/ Norra Djurgårdsstaden https://www.norradjurgardsstaden2030.se/karta https://vaxer.stockholm/omraden/stadsutvecklingsomraden/norra-djurgardsstaden/information-och-nyheter/

Fed bought more than $90 billion of short-dated government debt Fed officials regard this activity as a technical measure designed to ensure e smooth functioning of short-term money markets,  while others have suggested the central bank’s efforts might be just another version of quantitative easing, or QE.  No matter what it’s called, one crucial result of this T-bill buying has been a stabilization of short-term and even long-term market-based rates https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-has-bought-over-90b-in-treasury-bills-since-december-why-this-has-a-huge-impact-on-your-finances-311e5b91

  Just for the record S&P 500

The Doom Loop: Why the World Economic Order Is Spiraling into Disorder Hardcover – February 3, 2026 https://www.perplexity.ai/search/doom-loop-prasad-F_dyka5uSzO7v7jgu8nqAg#0

New AI-powered tools reduce time and cost of software development, threatening industries from law to advertising.  “It was very clear that we will never ever write code by hand again,” said Aditya Agarwal, the former chief technology officer at Dropbox.  “Something I was very good at is now free and abundant.” Financial Times 4 February 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/fd134065-c2c6-4a99-99df-404d658127e6 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/nagonting-har-hant.html

Christoffer De Geer är vd för B Treasury Capital, ett så kallat bitcoin-treasurybolag som köper och håller bitcoim. ”Historiskt har det gått ned med 90 procent vid tidigare kursfall. Men volatiliteten i dagsläget är lägre än tidigare. Så jag tror att vi kommer se mindre skarpa fall, och mindre skarpa uppgångar”, säger han. 70.000 dollar, drygt 5.000 dollar under dagens kurs, ses generellt som en viktig stödnivå för bitcoin, som kan bli avgörande för den fortsatta utvecklingen.  ”Historiskt har det gått ned med 90 procent vid tidigare kursfall. Men volatiliteten i dagsläget är lägre än tidigare.”, säger han. DI 4 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/bitcoin-fortsatter-falla-ofta-det-investerare-saljer-forst/ Godmorgon 2 februari 2026

Manfred Weber har föreslagit att en gemensam styrka under ”europeisk flagg” – en EU-armé alltså – borde stationeras i Ukraina så snart en fred uppnåtts.  (Manfred Weber is a prominent German politician currently serving as both the President of the European People's Party (EPP) and the Chairman of the EPP Group in the European Parliament. A member of the Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria, he is widely regarded as a central power broker in European Union politics, holding significant influence over the center-right legislative agenda.) Därefter hade han framfört att kommissionen och rådet inte bör ledas av två olika personer som idag. Därför, hade Weber anfört, måste Europa enas under en enda ledare. En president, lät det som. Han luftade en tanke om EU och Nato också. Den europeiska säkerhetsklausulen, paragraf 42,7, som kräver att varje land hjälper de andra i kris eller krig, ansåg han vara starkare än Natos artikel 5. Och så resonerade han om behovet av en operativ plan fö...

Warsh’s words indicate that he is very much the “hard money” central banker.   I agree, too, that the post-pandemic inflation was in part its fault: together with other central banks, it failed even to consider that the jump in the money supply in 2020 might lead to a jump in the price level.  I also agree with Warsh that the backward-looking monetary policy framework introduced in 2020 was a conceptual and practical error (not to mention grossly mistimed). Warsh might be far too willing to argue for whatever Trump wants.  It also appears that he intends to justify doing so by offsetting lower short-term rates with higher longer-term ones, as the Fed’s balance sheet is aggressively shrunk.  Martin Wolf 4 January 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/93b4c72a-0ceb-4839-bf72-06de3870d407

The company’s rapid e-commerce growth and push into automation and artificial intelligence propelled its stock into the trillion-dollar club. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/business/walmart-trillion-market-value.html Walmart  Walmart är en amerikansk multinationell detaljhandelskedja. Den anses vara världens största i sin bransch med en omsättning på cirka 681 miljarder amerikanska dollar och cirka 2,1 miljoner anställda fördelat på omkring 11 400 butiker i 26 länder i världen. https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walmart https://www.walmart.com/

Idag inleds en ny omgång av fredsförhandlingar mellan Ukraina, Ryssland och USA i Abu Dhabi. Läget i Ukraina är mycket ansträngt: – Det är fruktansvärt kallt här, med temperaturer på minus 20 grader, rapporterar SVT:s korrespondent Elin Jönsson på plats i i Kiev. https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/direktrapport-forsamrat-sakerhetslage?inlagg=f308cbc7d5b51fcdb48b1068e8e8515b European governments, sidelined in the peace n egotiations, are scrambling to get assistance to Ukraine, seeing a need to supply any piece of equipment to stave off a potential humanitarian disaster that could see a new wave of refugees to Europe. They say Ukraine estimates it needs to withstand the next 30 or so cold days until around early March, setting up a race against time to support citizens trying to keep their resolve until spring arrives. “We’re sending hundreds of generators to keep the heat and light on,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on the X platform after speaking Monday with...

Nasdaq Market Cap https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NDAQ/nasdaq/market-cap Lugn börsöppning väntas Victor Hultgren DI 4 februari 2026, 08:25 https://www.di.se/live/lugn-borsoppning-vantas-fem-saker-att-ha-koll-pa-4/ Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/buy-dip.html  Stockholmbörsen stänger på ny rekordnivå.  https://www.di.se/live/rekordstangning-i-stockholm-rapportbolag-i-topp/ https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/how-anthropic-achieved-ai-coding.html Nasdaq föll – hela årets uppgång har raderats AMD rasade och drog med sig AI-sektorn i fallet.   https://www.di.se/live/techfrossa-pa-wall-street-ai-bolag-faller-tungt/ Anthropics utraderade börsvärden om totalt 285 miljarder dollar, runt 2.500 miljarder kronor, i New York.   ”Jag tycker inte att man ska vara överdrivet orolig, men det ger en signal om att man kanske ska se över sin exponering.”säger Karl Hedberg, aktiechef på DNB Carnegie.  Än så länge handlar det främst om ett ...

Moderaterna har uppbackning i eurofrågan från Liberalerna – ett parti som för tillfället dock ser ut att implodera och som mycket väl kan åka ur riksdagen efter valet.  Hos väljarna saknas däremot ett brett stöd för euron. Senare undersökningar visar att omkring 32 procent är positiva till ett införande.  Redan i dag tenderar blocken att representera partietablissemangen i storstäderna, som i många frågor tycks ha mer gemensamt med varandra än med väljarna. Epoch Times 3 februari 2026 https://www.epochtimes.se/en-blockpolitik-utan-valjare

Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh spent over a decade working for Stanley Druckenmiller, who also mentored Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary. Wall Street Journal Feb. 2, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/what-kevin-warsh-learned-working-for-stanley-druckenmiller-7fc07efe Stanley Druckenmiller, the former hedge fund manager, issued a warning at the annual Ira Sohn conference on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve’s low-rate policy is creating vast long-run risks for the US economy. He said Fed policymakers are “raising the odds of the economic tail risk they are trying to avoid”, such as  spurring credit bubbles, by keeping interest rates near historic lows. Alarm bells ring over negative interest rates https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2016/05/alarm-bells-ring-over-negative-interest.html

I åsiktskorridorens hemland Sverige finns det inte mycket utrymme att avvika från normen.  Statsvetaren Katarina Barrling har sammanställt antologin Avvikare i Sverige, om människorna som trots allt väljer att sticka ut i det extrema landet lagom. https://shows.acast.com/axess-boksamtal/episodes/katarina-barrling-intervjuas-av-lotta-groning Horace Engdahl om ”åsiktskorridoren” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/horace-engdahl-om-asiktskorridoren.html Bortom åsikts- och känslokorridor Katarina Barrling och Paulina Neuding https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/07/sverige-var-ett-varldens-socialt-mest.html

 When the Fed has embarked on taking down its securities holdings, it has repeatedly caused disruptions to money markets.  In 2013, even a signal it would stop boosting its purchases sparked global volatility, in an episode known as  the taper tantrum.  Yellen is seeking to avoid the May 2013 episode of her predecessor Ben S. Bernanke, when his suggestion that the Fed might soon wind down its bond-buying program prompted investors to flee the risk in emerging markets.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-19/world-braces-for-taper-tantrum-ii-even-as-yellen-soothes-nerves Chris Anstey Bloomberg February 2, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-02/could-warsh-at-the-fed-and-bessent-at-treasury-remodel-the-central-bank-s-role  Kevin Warsh https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/pa-fredagen-nominerades-kevin-warsh-som.html

When interest rates are near zero, government debt doesn’t matter. That was the theory at least, in the previous decade, not just from economists on the fringe but also from a few in the mainstream. If rates stayed low, the argument went, the US didn’t need to worry about debt. And it didn’t. Debt increased, and economists who cautioned against it (ahem) were dismissed as cranks, with many of our critics pointing to the history of one nation: Japan, which managed to keep interest rates low even as its debt grew to more than 200% of its GDP. Reality, however, has a way of catching up with theory eventually, and now it has for Japan.   If it increased rates to fight inflation, then debt costs would balloon. If it kept rates low and let inflation run high, the yen would depreciate. In the end, it chose the second option. The timing couldn’t be worse, with Japan mulling more fiscal expansion to revamp its economy, and it’s now risking a full-on debt crisis. The lesson here is that...

Giorgia Meloni and Friedrich Merz looked more like an odd couple than a power couple when they met in the Roman sunshine to sign a partnership pact. Don't read my lips Balding and bespectacled, the 6ft 6in Mr Merz, 70, towered over his 5ft 2in blonde host, who is 49. “Italy and Germany are closer than ever before,” he said. Ms Meloni, the “post-fascist” single mother from a working-class Rome neighbourhood is an unlikely partner for the former BlackRock executive and grandfather of six, who has two private jets. “But he is not going to explain to his fellow citizens that it’s a great idea to share debt with the French, who have been unable to balance their books for 50 years.  Meloni, on the other hand, has done the job on the budget. She has cleaned up her accounts.” Telegraph 2 February 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/02/meloni-cuts-macron-out-engine-europe/

  Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/buy-dip.html Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/pa-fredagen-nominerades-kevin-warsh-som.html Muntert i USA. Wall Street stänger tydligt upp. Nasdaq yfte 0,6 procent, S&P 500 0,5 procent och  Dow Jones 1,1 procent. Disney rasade 7,3 procent. Nvidia backade 2,9   https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-stanger-tydligt-upp-tungt-tapp-for-disney/ https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-02-02-2026/card/bitcoin-price-drops-under-77-000-sIPnmVA6FY30XS3LbZd4 U.S. stock futures fall after bitcoin’s weekend drop, as gold and silver’s sell-off may be bleeding into other markets.  “Given the build up of positioning and leverage involved, [Friday’s gold and silver] sell-off is bleeding into other markets,”  “Effectively, a deleveraging is happening, forcing traders to sell other assets to cover losses on their losing precious metals positions. That’s contributing to t...