Englund

 “Again? Didn’t we just have this debate?” This is how the opening chapter of a collection of essays published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research , on “The New Global Imbalances” , starts.  Yes, we did. We did so in the 1980s, in the 2000s and now, once again, in the 2020s. Once roughly every 20 years, it appears, the issue comes to the fore. The view of many economists today is that if a crisis is going to strike, it is likely to be triggered in the US. So, how similar are today’s conditions to those of two decades ago? What might go wrong? What should be done? How might today’s situation end? Martin Wolf Financial Times 6 May 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/72ab51ed-8dcc-46c5-8457-6944d98bf280?syn-25a6b1a6=1 US trade deficit - In March - $60 billion https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/us-trade-deficit-in-march-60-billion.html America’s investment position with the rest of the world Is the world running away from American assets? Gillian Tett 20 February 2026 ht...

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Fed bryter sig äntligen fri från en destruktiv och föråldrad akademisk kult. Man skulle kunna hävda – och några modiga kättare vågar viska sådana tankar – att centralbankernas rationella svar på den recessionschock som kommer från Gulfen är antingen att hålla en stadig hand eller till och med att sänka räntorna för att dämpa slaget. Men Bank of England och ECB följer den nykeynesianska ledstjärnan för inflationsförväntningar, den ledstjärna som har styrt västerländska centralbanker i årtionden och formar tänkandet vid akademins doktorandfabriker med knapp tolerans för oliktänkande. Bank of England sa att den kan höja räntorna sex gånger om oljepriset stiger till 120 dollar och förblir högt resten av året. Ska vi anta, helt absurt, att den kan höja räntorna tolv gånger om råoljan når 180 dollar? Att bara tala om att stapla Pelion på Ossa på detta sätt är att kyla ner investeringarna och döda återhämtningen på bostadsmarknaden. Pelion och Ossa är två berg i Thess...

President Donald Trump said he would pause "Project Freedom" to see if the US can reach an agreement with Iran to end the war. Trump cited "Great Progress" toward "a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran" and said the decision was made at the request of Pakistan and other countries. The US blockade of ships transiting to and from Iranian ports would "remain in full force and effect" despite the pause in "Project Freedom". President Donald Trump said he would pause an effort to help stranded ships exit the Strait of Hormuz to see if the US can reach an agreement with Iran to end the war. “Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” Bloomberg 6 May 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/trump-says-he-will-pause-project-freedom-for-short-period Amerikanska presidenter får ...

Vi, Forska! Sverige och medlemmarna i ”Agenda för hälsa och välstånd”, representerar akademi, näringsliv, vård, professioner, civilsamhälle, regioner och myndigheter.  I en ny rapport som vi presenterar den 7 maj i Sveriges riksdag beskriver vi utmaningar, konsekvenser och hur vi själva agerar för att hantera den nya verkligheten.  https://www.forskasverige.se/wp-content/uploads/2026-Lystring-Om-nya-utmaningar-som-hotar-medicinsk-forskning-och-utveckling-for-kvalitetsdriven-vard-och.pdf Vår samlade bild är att omvärldsläget försämrat förutsättningarna på flera avgörande områden.  Under årets valrörelse uppmanar vi partierna att avstå snabba och förenklade lösningar.  Dagens utmaningar kräve långsiktiga prioriteringar och åtgärder på systemnivå. Bland annat Anna Nilsson Vindefjärd, generalsekreterare Forska! Sverige, och Tobias Alfvén, professor på Karolinska institutet och ordförande för ”Agenda för hälsa och välstånd”. DI Debatt 5 maj 2026 https://www.di.se/debatt/s...

“Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters at the White House uesday. “We achieved the objectives of that operation.” Portraying the war as concluded also allows the administration to skirt questions about the legality of the conflict.  The War Powers Act requires him to wind down a conflict in 60 days unless authorized by Congress. Trump passed that deadline about a week ago. Bloomberg 5 May 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/us-says-offensive-phase-of-iran-war-over-as-ship-hit-in-strait Ökad tro på fred gav nya indexrekord i USA https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/5-maj-oil-price-solenergi.html

Mexico City, 22 million residents, is sinking at such an alarming rate that it’s visible from the space. Imagery from a powerful NASA radar system is revealing subsidence rates of more than 0.5 inches a month — making the city one of the planet’s fasting-sinking capitals. One of the world’s biggest cities, stretches out across a high-altitude lake and sits atop an ancient aquifer, which provides around 60% of drinking water for the city’s 22 million residents. Over the years, this aquifer has been so over-pumped that it’s caused the land above it to subside. Over-extraction has also contributed to a chronic water crisis that has left the Mexico City facing a potential day zero, where taps run dry. CNN 5 May 2026 https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/05/climate/mexico-city-sinking-nasa-aquifer-water RE: Jag säger som Carl Bildt. Inte bra. Houston has a problem; It is sinking https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/houston-has-problem-it-is-sinking.html Jakarta, the fastest-sinking megacity ...

Older Americans are sitting on $110 trillion of wealth. Their heirs might not get it anytime soon. The two generations that hold the most wealth are  Baby boomers, who are between age 61 and 80, and  Gen X, who are between 45 and 61. When they do die, many will pass wealth first to their spouses. Boomers are still getting windfalls from their own elderly parents.  Older Americans’ wealth has grown by an outsize amount in the past few decades. Many of these people bought stocks or started businesses long ago, and those have soared in value over the years.  In the fourth quarter alone, boomers gained over $1 trillion in wealth, more than any other group.  Wall Street Journal 4 May 2026 https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-great-110-trillion-wealth-transfer-wont-happen-any-time-soon-e8b2ef31 Many of these older homeowners paid off their mortgages on properties that have appreciated tremendously in value. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/baby-boomers-bought-up-...

In March, U.S. imports totaled $381 billion. Exports were $321 billion. That yielded a trade deficit of $60 billion, 555 miljarder kr, i mars, en siffra lätt att komma ihåg. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-05-05-2026/card/trade-deficit-grew-in-march-cqboOhTySer7GOiaOsmt U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2026 https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-march-2026 US Trade deficit https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/us-trade-deficit.html  

The European Political Community meeting in Armenia for high-level talks on global conflicts, energy security, and strengthening democracy. https://www.dw.com/en/epc-summit-europe-has-gotten-the-message-from-trump/live-77030273 The European Political Community (EPC)  https://www.perplexity.ai/search/0c56c7f2-f0c1-4d3c-a185-70e6e4d67dad   https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/baku-plus-ca-change-plus-cest-la-meme.html "We are paying today for our excessive dependence on the protection provided by the US in terms of defense and security," said French President Emmanuel Macron in the Armenian capital. Since 2014, the UK has established a Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) with around 10 countries, mainly from Northern Europe.  Initially, the structure made it easier to coordinate with Finland and Sweden, which joined the alliance in 2023 and 2024. It relies on the British forces' headquarters in Northwood and lacks a dedicated general staff. On April 29, General Gwyn Jenkin...

Ökad tro på fred gav nya indexrekord i USA Bolag inom AI-hårdvara rusade. Donald Trump uppgav att han ska diskutera konflikten direkt med Kinas Xi Jinping nästa vecka. ”Vårt basscenario för marknaden och ekonomin är att vi ser en lösning mellan USA och Iran inom kort. Det skulle möjliggöra att Hormuzsundet återöppnas och att energipriserna därmed sjunker”, säger Chris Senyek.   https://www.di.se/live/okad-tro-pa-fred-gav-nya-indexrekord-i-usa/ Stockholmsbörsen rekylerade upp Att USA inte svarade med våld på Irans attacker mot Förenade arabemiraten bör ses som att Donald Trump fortsatt vill se ett snabbt avslut på konflikten, skriver CNBC.  Utvecklingen får oljepriserna att falla och börsen att pusta ut. https://www.di.se/live/borsen-studsade-upp-rapportduo-rusade/ Both America and Iran want to have a deal. But... But they have different deals in mind and are sticking to their red lines.  Until one or the other, or preferably both, decide to offer concessions, renewed fu...

De överväldigas av två enorma chocker: pengarna som strömmar in på att förverkliga artificiell intelligens, och slaget mot den globala oljeförsörjningen från kriget i Iran. Det förra överväger på något sätt fortfarande det senare och lämnar amerikanska aktier nära rekordnivåer. Genom att avfyra förnyade missilattacker idag signalerar Iran att de fortfarande har kapacitet att orsaka smärta och inte kommer att tvingas till kapitulation.  USA står i allt högre grad inför valet mellan ett långt krig som de inte vill utkämpa, eller en dålig, pinsam överenskommelse. Med mellanårsvalet som väntar sätter det press på USA att ingå en överenskommelse. Logiken pekar på en resolution som det kärnkraftsavtal som president Barack Obama gjorde (känt som JCPOA) som Trump medvetet drog sig ur 2018. Han är förståeligt nog ovillig att acceptera ett sådant resultat. Optimismen kommer från AI… Euforin är tillbaka till den första upphetsningen kring ChatGPT 2022 – förutom att den här gången gör vinstern...

The Joint Venture is expected to act as a consulting arm for Anthropic and help teach businesses—including the private-equity firms’ portfolio companies—how to incorporate AI across their operations. Wall Street Journal May 4, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/anthropic-nears-1-5-billion-joint-venture-with-wall-street-firms-8f5448ee   Hellman & Friedman https://hf.com/

Despite high nominal yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, the yield after expected inflation is around 2%, indicating that the market is not worried about debt. From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/01/secular-stagnation-not-secular.html A bond bubble could be more dangerous than an equity bubble, as a drop in bond prices would reprice risk throughout the economy,  causing disruptions and potentially leading to liquidity issues for banks and corporations. There is a popular notion that bond traders can see the future, that they know what inflation will be or if a recession is coming.  But bond markets are often wrong.  And they may be wrong now because bond yields are low relative to the risks the economy faces. Allison Schrager Bloomberg May 4, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-04/overpriced-bonds-are-a-bigger-threat-than-overpriced-stocks QE 10 år med nollränta Weak growth argues for a cut in interest rat...

Corporate America announced plans to buy back $665 billion worth of shares in S&P 500 Index companies in the four months through April, the most ever to start a year. Authorized repurchases are estimated to reach $1.55 trillion in 2026, a figure that would eclipse last year’s record, indicating confidence in corporate fundamentals. Corporate buybacks provide a steady source of demand regardless of price, helping to cushion any potential market pullbacks, and may contribute to lessening the impact of the war in Iran on earnings. “The unprecedented level of commitments from Corporate America to continue buying their own stock indicates the confidence they have in their earnings, revenue, and cash flow.” Stock buybacks have been a dominant source of demand for US equities since the aftermath of the financial crisis. They reduce the supply of outstanding stock, boosting profits for each remaining share as a result. The practice isn’t without its critics, who argue that a share buyback ...

 “Don’t bet against the American consumer.” It’s a maxim investors ignore at their peril. There have of course been times that household spending slumped, but almost always later than when one would have guessed from reading the headlines.  That resilience is on display again. Despite a war, rising gasoline prices and a 74-year low in consumer sentiment, registers kept ringing the past couple of months. This spending is happening alongside the slowest income growth in years, though. As a result, Americans’ personal saving rate is down to a level not seen since inflationary 2022. Spencer Jakab Wall Street Journal 4 May 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/in-ai-we-trust-why-spending-is-so-buoyant-1e741081

Iran har attackerat amerikanskt krigsfartyg – plötsligt börsfall https://www.di.se/live/iran-har-attackerat-amerikanskt-krigsfartyg-plotsligt-borsfall/ Ingen fara Dip-buy-bara https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/23-april-hormuz-stagflation.html Wall Street pros used to dismiss retail investors as “dumb money”; Buy the Dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/wall-street-pros-used-to-dismiss-retail.html Oil prices are surging on an Iranian media report that a U.S. Navy vessel was struck by missiles, hours after President Trump announced a plan to guide commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. Central Command spokesperson denied the report. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-05-04-2026 The Fight for the Strait of Hormuz Is Under Way After weeks of drift and wishful thinking, the United States appears to have begun the effort to reopen one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. Intense Iranian retaliation on Monday, including...

Då öppnar Donald Trump för ännu mer kapital till sektorn. Nyss beskrevs den amerikanska kreditjätten Blue Owl som Wall Streets hetaste firma, men i dag pekas bolaget ut som ett möjligt embryo till nästa stora finanskris.  Blue Owl är en fondförvaltare som lånar ut pengar till företag utanför banksystemet och obligationsmarknaden.  På engelska kallas detta private credit och marknaden domineras av riskkapitalaktörer och kapitalförvaltningsjättar som Blackstone, Apollo, KKR och Ares. Lotta Dinkelspiel Fokus 2026-04-08 https://www.fokus.se/utrikes/kreditboomen-kan-utlosa-nasta-finanskris/ Lotta Dinkelspiel  https://lotta.dinkelspiel.com/#about

According to the Belgian central bank governor. EU policymakers are still pursuing goals such as open markets and limited state aid that no longer reflect a geopolitical reality shaped by Donald Trump’s America First and Beijing’s dirigiste policies. Financial Times 4 maj 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/1c256ede-d7b6-4737-88f3-442cbf3351e5?syn-25a6b1a6=1 RE: Många tror, eller låtsas tro, att USA, även efter Trump, kommer att fortsätta Trumps politik.

  — amateurs who knew no better than to chase the latest hot trade.  But lately, the little guys have made impressive gains by “buying the dip”, and have arguably emerged as the single most influential set of investors in the stock market.  Awed by the way the retail crowd just buys its way through negative headlines, some pros have stopped sneering and started to follow their lead. Ruchir Sharma Financial Times 4 maj 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/ee8a0604-84cb-44da-bb33-f36818944581?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Sveriges ekonomi höll på att koka över av en alltför snabb kreditexpansion under slutet av 1980-talet. På några år hade Sveriges penningmarknad vuxit till världens tredje största räknat i utestående volym.  Vi på Nordisk Rating hade till uppgift att sätta kreditbetyg på dem som ville låna pengar på denna marknad. Vi hade flera av den tidens snabbväxande och sedermera ökända finansbolag på vår betygslista: Gamlestaden, Independent och Finansor. Vi hade även finansbolaget Nyckeln, som tillsammans med fastighetsbolaget Allhus var de första dominobrickorna som föll i den svenska finanskrisen. Bankerna var inte delaktiga som låntagare just på penningmarknaden, med ett undantag: Gota AB, som var moderbolag till Gotabanken, som i sin tur hade köpt upp ett antal medelstora svenska banker, som Götabanken och dåvarande Nordbanken. Gota AB kunde inte fullgöra sina åtaganden och dess banker togs över av staten och blev Nordea, liksom ett antal andra banker. Riksbanken under dåvarande riksbanks...

  A Birkin bag on display in Germany. Photographer: Yen Duong/Bloomberg The Hermes resale market has contributed to the bursting of the Birkin bubble, with some Birkin and Kelly bags changing hands for less than a few years ago. Hermes can seize back the narrative by introducing its own authorized resale program, enabling it to exert greater control over its leather goods on the secondary market. You can’t buy Hermes’ most desirable bags — the Kelly, Birkin and Constance — in a store.  Because demand typically outstrips supply, customers must instead join a waitlist. Consequently, used models that are immediately available in the resale market typically cost more than their new counterparts. An authorized resale program, similar to Rolex's "Certified Pre-Owned" program, could help Hermes crack down on "flippers"  who secure a bag by getting to the top of the Hermes wait list — only to immediately sell it on for a profit. Andrea Felsted Bloomberg May 1, 2026 http...