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The prospect that the Iran war will reintensify after the failure of peace talks threatens to spark fresh volatility across global markets, after a week that saw a fragile ceasefire drive stocks up and oil down by the most this year. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-12/wary-investors-eye-another-escalation-in-iran-war-markets-wrap Iran-US peace talks fail;  S&P 500 har tappat 0,9 procent från nivåerna innan kriget bröt ut https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/iran-us-peace-talks-fail-s-500-har.html After weeks of scouring headlines and watching tanker traffic, investors are eager to get back to the fundamentals of corporate earnings https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-markets-next-test-is-already-here-a08a80fd

Peter Magyar’s Tisza party was headed for a supermajority in parliament that will allow it to deliver on bold promises to dismantle Orban’s self-styled illiberal system.   The outcome also marks a defeat for the nationalist camp in Europe.  But it came as a big relief for the EU, which had struggled to overcome Orban’s obstructionism over the years. “Hungary has chosen Europe,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on X. A two-thirds majority will help a Magyar administration pass key legislation to unlock some of the more than $20 billion in EU funds that had been withheld from the Orban government on rule-of-law and corruption concerns  Boomberg 12 april 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-12/hungarians-sweep-away-orban-after-16-years-in-seismic-election

After five centuries concentrated in the West and North, power is dispersing to the East and South.  From 1990 to 2025, the share of the world’s gross domestic product held in the Group of Seven (France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, the UK and the US) shrunk from half to a quarter,  while the share held by China, India and Southeast Asia rose from 15% to 55%. Trump has de facto disavowed territorial integrity, self-determination, free trade and human rights — bedrock principles America has championed for 80 years. What Ernest Hemingway wrote about going bankrupt can also be said of the end of the rules-based international order. It happened in two ways: gradually, then suddenly. More nations, especially developing ones, are exercising regional and even global leadership. Poland will soon have Europe’s strongest military. Turkey has the world’s third-largest diplomatic footprint. Qatar has become an essential conflict mediator.  The second trend is an ongoing shift in po...

China produces 94% of rare earth magnets, and 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Chokepoints work fundamentally differently from tariffs, and that distinction exposes the flaws in Trump’s entire approach to economic warfare. This is what I learned from Edward Fishman, who worked on sanctions policy in the Obama administration and literally wrote the book on this subject:  “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare.”  https://www.wsj.com/arts-culture/books/chokepoints-review-the-dollar-on-defense-08a6c083 Trump assumes other countries will do almost anything to avoid losing access to the enormous American market. But Fishman says the U.S. share of world imports, at 13%, is too small to sway other countries’ behavior. With a few exceptions, most can find substitute markets.  China’s exports to the U.S. fell last year because of tariffs, but exports to the rest of the world more than made up the difference. The Pentagon has known for...

  From Ottoman Sultans to Danish kings, Iran’s toll system for  Strait of Hormuz revives an old maritime fight https://www.ft.com/content/9a5294cf-0b64-4201-b88c-12ba586bb4fd?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Strait of Hormuz och Öresundstullen; Global capital markets are OK with this. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/strait-of-hormuz-och-oresundstullen.html

Iran-US peace talks fail https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt ”Fomo” lyfter börsen Om Stockholmbörsens muntra humör håller i sig blir det första fredagen sedan krigsutbrottet i Iran som indexen stänger på plus.  Det är förhoppningar inför helgens samtal mellan USA och Iran och uppgifter om fredsframsteg i Ukraina som får investerarna att dra på smilbanden. DI 10 april 2026 S&P 500 har tappat 0,9 procent från nivåerna innan kriget bröt ut https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/10-april-islamabad-jd-vance-och.html  

Ett exeempel på hur det ena ger det andra. Lena Andersson: Jag är inte skåning för att jag bor i Skåne Nyligen flyttade jag till Skåne efter att alltid ha bott i Stockholm. Jag kommer framöver att betala skatt till en skånsk kommun, gå till läkaren i Region Skåne, och rösta i en skånsk vallokal. Men skåningarna vet, och jag vet, att jag inte är skåning.  Min bror har bott utomlands sedan 1993, mer än halva sitt liv. Han är en av de svenskaste människor jag känner. Det är ingen merit, men det är vad det är. Numera bor han i Kalifornien. Jag skulle aldrig få för mig att se honom som amerikan. Statsvetaren Andreas Johansson Heinö hävdade häromveckan i sitt nyhetsbrev från Timbro , i en replik till Jimmie Åkesson om svenskhet, att Sverige numera ”bland annat [är] ett muslimskt land”. I mina öron är det ett bisarrt påstående. I en klassisk liberal ordning skiljer man noga på stat och samhälle, offentligt och privat.  Skälen för det har inte försvunnit med tidens gång. Men den prog...

  Vance is leading a US delegation to Islamabad for the first face-to-face talks with Iranian officials since the beginning of the conflict, which has triggered a global energy crisis.  The outcome could determine whether a tenuous two-week ceasefire turns into a lasting peace or ultimately unravels and plunges the region into further conflict. If he succeeds, it could help him burnish his credibility on the world stage ahead of a possible White House run in 2028.  Failure, however, could damage his standing and saddle him with the chunk of the blame. Given Vance’s opposition to so-called forever wars, he has incentive to find a resolution, O’Brien said. If the vice president is unable to secure a deal, it gives Trump more political cover to “start things up again,” he added. Bloomberg 10 April 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-10/vance-emerges-as-trump-s-iran-closer-a-task-fraught-with-risk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/why-the-str...

The Chinese president informed Cheng Li-wun, the chair of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang party, that Beijing also wanted greater co-operation with all political parties.  Beijing claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has threatened military action if it resists in the long term. In her response, Cheng said they would “jointly launch the rejuvenation project of Chinese civilisation”. “Although cross-strait peoples live under different systems, we will respect each other and move towards each other,” she said. FT 10 April 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/e4aecf2e-9975-4b44-b01c-d6f2b8435386?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Nationalist Kina Xi faced some internal criticism for turning the nation into a target by abandoning former leader Deng Xiaoping’s “hide and bide” strategy, which called for keeping a lower international profile while quietly building strength.  Toppmöte i Kairo Chiang Kai-shek var en nationalistisk kinesisk militär och politiker. Han var Kinas ledare från 1927 till inbördeskrigets...

Hungary’s illiberal champion has benefited from the misjudgments and complacency of other leaders 2014 Orbán coined the expression “illiberal democracy”, which would define his fight against the EU’s established political order.  Germany soon became Hungary’s dominant partner. Orbán wanted to industrialise its economy; Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Opel were happy to oblige, attracted by cheap labour and state subsidies. 2015, when hundreds of thousands of Syrian and Afghan refugees tried to cross Hungary to reach Germany, Orbán built a fence on his border but Merkel welcomed them with open arms.  That episode was a turning point in the rise of populist movements in Europe. Western Europe’s leaders completely misread the shock of the refugee crisis on post-communist societies unprepared for multi-ethnic immigration. Sylvie Kauffmann FT 6 april 2026 The writer is a columnist at Le Monde https://www.ft.com/content/e04b3228-5199-4df7-b5ef-d3540f12ad2a   Ungrarna verkar vilja ...

Coffee houses first appeared in the West in the late 17th century, when liberal thought was first brewing, and multiplied in the 18th century when it turned into a movement. Jurgen Habermas, the social philosopher who died last month, famously argued that coffee houses provided something radically new:  a third space, or “bourgeois public sphere,” separate from the state or the home where people of all social ranks could meet and engage in open discussion.  Coffee houses were far more conducive to enlightened conversation than the traditional gathering places, ale houses, for the obvious reason that coffee clarifies the mind while alcohol befuddles it. Coffee houses also provided homes for the great liberal sages. Adam Smith drafted parts of The Wealth of Nations (1776) in the British Coffee House in London  and engaged in coffee-fueled discussions with David Hume in John’s Coffee House on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh. William Hogarth drew cartoons of the inhabitants of co...

  What If the Strait of Hormuz Was the English Channel? Here’s a thought experiment. Britain votes to “take back control” by leaving the European Union. Then it announces that all ships passing through the English Channel must pay a toll.  To enforce the charge on the 600 ships that cross the narrow waterway each day, it stations missile launchers on the white cliffs of Dover.  Ships at anchor in Dover and Folkestone stand ready to lay mines in the Channel. The Royal Navy intercepts fare-dodgers with speedboats and drones. As the howls of protest amplify, the British government offers to share the proceeds with the French authorities on the other side. Amid the fog that surrounds the US-Iran ceasefire deal, Tehran is asserting the principle that it can exert control and levy charges over shipping in the Strait.  Entering this weekend’s negotiations, that appears to have been tacitly accepted.  Global capital markets are OK with this.  Even as it grew steadi...

  As more members of the baby-boomer generation retire, they will increasingly start to liquidate their investments to finance their retirements.  Defined-contribution plans, including 401(k)s, have become net sellers of stocks and are redeeming money from mutual funds.   MarketWatch 9 april 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-chart-hints-at-a-coming-generational-shift-that-could-remove-a-critical-source-of-demand-for-stocks-be8eb475 The baby boomers, those born between 1946 and 1970, were the richest, and largest, generation that the world has ever seen. Unsurprisingly, they created a truly golden age for housing, auto sales and overall consumer demand. Babyboomgenerationen kan komma att hålla ned börskurserna i två decennier framåt. Det spås bli följden när en åldrande befolkning säljer sina aktieandelar för att finansiera pensionen. Varningen kommer från Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. DI 24 augusti 2011 https://internetional.se/shares.htm#overwhelm

Vance US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday. More U.S. Forces Deploy to Middle East https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-latest-news-israel-us-lebanon-2026/card/more-u-s-forces-deploy-to-middle-east-aCya5kNVTR0CsBVX0Z3v Uppgifter: Framsteg i fredssamtal mellan Ukraina och Ryssland ”De förstår alla att kriget måste ta slut. Det är därför de förhandlar. Jag tror inte att det kommer dröja länge”, säger Ukrainas högsta förhandlare Kyrylo Budanov till Bloomberg.  Han poängterar att inga slutgiltiga beslut har fattat. ”Men i princip förstår alla nu tydligt gränserna för vad som är acceptabelt. Det är enorma framsteg”, säger han.  Det framgår inte varför Bloomberg publicerar intervjun först nu, sex dagar efter att den gjordes.  DI 10 april 2026, 11:47 https://www.di.se/live/uppgifter-framsteg-i-fredssamtal-mellan-ukraina-och-ryssland/ ”Fomo” lyfter börsen Om Stockholmbörsens muntra humör håller i sig blir det första fredagen sedan krigsutbrottet...

I sin nya bok ”Ett utstakat öde? Om trauman, gener och livsberättelser som håller människor fångna” undersöker Markus Heilig, psykiater och professor i neurovetenskap, hur livsberättelser uppstår och går igenom vad modern forskning egentligen säger om sambanden mellan trauma, genetik och livsval. – Vi ägnar väldigt mycket uppmärksamhet åt miljöfaktorer, som må vara relevanta, men som bidrar med enstaka procent av variansen i risk. Genetisk risk däremot ligger oftast i storleksordningen 10 gånger mer. Så i den mån folk säger att vi vet att både arv och miljö påverkar oss, så har man totalt missat magnituden, säger Markus Heili. Han menar att en av de mest förbisedda mekanismerna i hela arv–miljö-debatten är det som kallas arv–miljö-korrelationer.  Det innebär att en individs medfödda egenskaper också påverkar vilka miljöer man hamnar i – och att miljöfaktorerna därmed delvis kan avspegla individens genetik.  Det kan skapa samband som vid en första anblick ser ut som rena miljöe...

Häromveckan gav EU-parlamentet klartecken till en ny lag som ska göra det lättare att avvisa människor som inte har rätt att befinna sig inom EU. Migranter ska kunna skickas till så kallade återvändarhubbar i länder utanför EU som dom inte har anknytning till och man ska kunna hålla personer i förvar i upp till 24 månader. – Det var en tung dag när det här beslutet från Europaparlamentets sida röstades igenom, säger Miljöpartiets EU-parlamentariker Alice Bah Kuhnke. https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/sa-vill-alice-bah-kuhnke-mp-fa-fler-att-lamna-eu-samtala-och-informera När Alice Bah Kuhnke tillträdde som ny kultur- och demokratiminister 2014 valde hon att låta sig fotograferas under det broderade budskapet ”Visst behöver vi en kulturrevolution nu”.  En historisk osmaklighet som endast kan försvaras med okunskap. De allra flesta svenskar, har en i bästa fall mycket ytlig förståelse av vad den kinesiska kulturrevolutionen som pågick mellan åren 1966 – 1976 egentligen handlade om....

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/trump-hunt-for-iran-s-uranium-hindered-by-monitoring-disruption https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/president-trump-on-wednesday-made-case.html Stock Market Today: Dow up 325 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq move higher as investors grow confident about Iran war de-escalation and Strait of Hormuz reopening The U.S. stock-market indexes were moving higher Thursday, on the second day of trading after the U.S.-Iran cease-fire. 21:13 https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/s-p-500-dow-jones-nasdaq-oil-prices-iran-war-cease-fire-uncertainty New York-börserna steg för sjunde dagen i rad,  men mjukvarubolagen sjönk tungt https://www.di.se/live/new-york-borserna-steg-for-sjunde-dagen-i-rad/ Conflicts over strategic and commercial waterways—especially straits and canals—are nothing new. Back in 1507, the Portuguese decided to set up a fortress to control the Strait of Hormuz. It taxed commerce for a century before Persia and Bri...

  Marknaden förefaller i det närmaste hjärndöd. Fortsatt oro i Mellanöstern lyckades inte skaka New York-börserna Breda S&P 500 avancerade 2,5 procent, samtidigt steg Dow Jones industriindex med 2,9 procent medan tekniktunga Nasdaq kompositindex klättrade 2,8 procent.  Wall Streets så kallade skräckindex VIX var nere på sina lägstanivåer sedan kriget i Mellanöstern bröt ut https://www.di.se/live/fortsatt-oro-i-mellanostern-lyckades-inte-skaka-new-york-borserna/ Mid 7.000, det är 7.500 We will remember. Iran stänger Hormuzsundet som svar på israeliska attacker mot Libanon, rapporterar AP med hänvisning till iranska statliga medier. Vita huset kallar draget både ”oacceptabelt” och ”falskt” men står svarslöst inför frågan; vem kontrollerar sundet? DI 8 april 2026, 20:54 https://www.di.se/live/iranska-medier-iran-stanger-hormuzsundet/ Andreas Krieg, Mellanösternexpert vid King's College i London, slår fast att Teheran har kontrollen över farleden i Persiska viken som ett nytt ...