Englund

Whose Legacy Was Dimmed by the Financial Crisis.  The ‘maestro’ rivaled the U.S. president for global influence. But his faith in financial markets’ ability to police themselves became an Achilles’ heel. Former colleagues and Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman hailed Greenspan as the greatest central banker of all time when he finished 18½ years as Federal Reserve chairman in 2006.  Just two years later, the financial crisis triggered an austere reappraisal of his record. His view that markets could effectively police themselves became a driving force of regulatory policy in the 1990s and early 2000s. His perceived inclination to stem market panic earned a moniker, the “Greenspan put”—as if the Fed itself was a put option that insured investors against losses.  The Fed cushioned markets after the stock-market crash of 1987 and the 1998 failure of Long-Term Capital Management and played a key role arranging a bailout that followed the Mexican debt crisis of 1994. Greenspan del...

More than 830 cases of the rare Bundibugyo strain, for which there is no proven treatment or vaccine, have been confirmed in Congo, 196 of them fatal.  The disease, transmitted through body fluids even after death, is spreading fast across three provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo, government data shows. CNN 17 June 2026 https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/16/africa/drc-ebola-cdc-intl-latam-afr

Den brittiske paleobiologen Simon Conway Morris,  professor emeritus i paleobiologi vid Cambridge, för hans banbrytande arbete inom evolutionsbiologin och dess implikationer för den mänskliga självförståelsen. Conway Morris är ledande expert på den så kallade kambriska explosionen.  Kort sagt: utan den kambriska explosionen, inget liv som vi känner det. Steven Jay Gould, den lysande amerikanske paleontologen, gjorde ett berömt inlägg i debatten med sin bok ”Wonderful life” från 1989. Gould menade att Conway Morris banbrytande arbete omkullkastar den gängse tolkningen av livets historia, enligt vilken evolutionen gradvis leder inte bara framåt utan uppåt Men i själva verket finns, enligt Gould, ingen sådan uppåtrörelse. De arter som överlevt sedan kambrium är inte på något sätt bättre, de har bara haft tur i livets lotteri. Varför existerar det över huvud taget människor? För att en asteroid utplånade dinosaurierna – en vinstlott för vår del. Inte mer än så. I själva verket är ...

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was the first to announce in a social-media post this week that the US and Iran had struck a truce now known as the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.” Sharif and Pakistani military chief Asim Munir emerged as central figures in the conflict’s drama  Bloomberg 20 June 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-20/pakistan-brokers-us-iran-peace-deal-boosting-its-global-status

Orsaken till det stora spannet finns främst i osäkerheter kring hur snabbt isen på Grönland och främst Antarktis smälter. Den största orosfaktorn är Thwaites-glaciären på Antarktis, även kallad ”domedagsglaciären”, som är större än hela Götaland och hela Svealand tillsammans och innehåller tillräckligt mycket vatten för att kunna få världshaven att stiga med runt 65 centimeter, vilket skulle ta flera århundraden.  Nu kommer nya oroande upptäckter på området. I maj konstaterade forskare att en stor del av Thwaitesglaciären, en 300 meter tjock flytande ismassa – så kallad isshelf – lika stor som London på dess östra sida, är på väg att brytas loss. Förmodligen sker det redan i år. Det väntas få resten av glaciären att snabbare glida ut i havet. DN 21 juni 2026 https://www.dn.se/varlden/stor-osakerhet-om-stigande-hav-ny-upptackt-om-domedagsglaciaren-oroar/ – Södra Skåne är absolut värst utsatt. Längst ner i söder, där landhöjningen efter istiden är näst intill obefintlig. https://eng...

Endast tolv banker i hela världen åtnjuter idag betyget AA- eller högre hos samtliga av de tre instituten. Av dessa tolv banker är tre svenska. Endast Australien har fler.  Den goda återbetalningsförmågan bland svenska företag och hushåll.  Svenska hushåll åtnjuter lägre räntor på sina bolån än de flesta bankkunder i Europa. Icke desto mindre debatteras bankernas lönsamhet flitigt.  Då är det viktigt att veta att svenska bankers lönsamhet mätt som avkastning på eget kapital ligger i linje med genomsnittet i en europeisk jämförelse. DI 21 juni 2026 https://www.di.se/debatt/svenska-bankers-sarstallning-ar-bra-for-sverige/

Beslutet förra året att lägga Ukrainastödet och de ökade försvarsutgifterna utanför saldomålet innebär ett avsteg från det finanspolitiska ramverket.  Rådet menar att det kunde vara motiverat när det gällde Ukraina, ett tillfälligt stöd i en krigssituation, men inte när det gällde försvaret. Ökningen ska vara permanent, och då går det inte att motivera varför den inte ska finansieras förrän efter 2030. Vid seminariet talade rådets nuvarande ordförande Lars Heikensten om de värsta brotten mot ramverket på årtionden.   Gunnar Wetterberg Expressen 12 juni 2026 https://www.expressen.se/ledare/gunnar-wetterberg/svenska-politiker-vill-ta-springnota-nu-igen/ Gunnar Wetterberg var chef för Finansdepartementets strukturpolitiska enhet 1990-1994.  Lars Heikensten - Att ingå i ett större valutaområde ger mer stabilitet. Det säger Lars Heikensten, som i förtid lämnade posten som riksbankschef för en välavlönad tjänst i Bryssel. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/lars-heik...

  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/beer-can-boost-spiritual-or-mental.html

Backe pekar framför allt på samspelet mellan Alexander Isak och Viktor Gyökeres som en faktor som kan bli avgörande. https://www.epochtimes.se/experterna-ense-sa-ska-sverige-sla-nederlanderna Nederländerna körde över Sverige med 5–1. Men deppa inte, möjligheten för Sverige att gå till 16-delsfinal i fotbolls-VM är fortfarande stor. https://www.svt.se/sport/fotboll/trots-overkorningen-sa-gar-sverige-vidare-i-vm Så ska Sverige knäcka Japan https://www.svt.se/sport/fotboll/sa-ska-sverige-knacka-japan-maste-fa-in-en-nolltolerans

A European-led mission may soon set sail, with Germany poised to play a central role. Deutsche Welle 19 June 2026 https://www.dw.com/en/why-germanys-navy-could-be-crucial-for-the-strait-of-hormuz/video-77631739

Poland's highest state honour, the Order of the White Eagle, over Kyiv's decision to name a military unit after controversial World War II fighters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_the_White_Eagle_(Poland) Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA)   Many in Ukraine regard the UPA, which existed in the 1940s and 1950s, as heroes who fought for Ukrainian independence against the Soviet Red Army as well as Nazi Germany and Polish authorities. So for Ukrainians the title "Heroes of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army" is a major honour. Poland, however, accuses the UPA of carrying out a genocide of ethnic Poles in Volhynia (now Volyn in Ukraine) in 1943-45. BBC 20 June 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7xzg3dmj8o

Foreigners routinely misunderstand Sweden’s secret, a secret that, to some extent, they share with other Nordic countries, but which they embody to a unique degree, given that they are bigger than Denmark, less state-dominated than Norway and more Scandinavian than Finland.  A odd exemplar of “democratic socialism” that has about twice as many billionaires per capita as the US, that provides parents with school vouchers that they can “spend” in public or private schools, and that has a vibrant culture of share ownership, with 22% of Swedes owning shares directly, rather than through intermediaries. A succession of neoliberal governments re-engineered the model from top to bottom.  There are some flies in this ointment, of course: The economy has recently endured a bout of stagnation, unemployment is at an uncomfortably high 9.4% and Sweden has one of Europe’s highest rates of household debt. Polls suggest that a left-of-center coalition will replace the current right-of-cente...

Robin Wigglesworth: It takes skill to blend the sweep of history, the complex nuances of high finance, and the vignettes, characters and observations that make a narrative compelling — and Ahamed absolutely nails it. https://www.ft.com/content/93e4e3a9-197d-47bf-916c-6058e4b6c873 A central part of Ahamed’s argument is that the crash triggered a deflationary struggle as a result of a twist in the 19th-century monetary system. Deflation only ended with the discovery of new sources of gold in South Africa in 1886. On Wall Street today, the AI boom is sometimes compared to the 19th-century railway bonanza, in which an essential infrastructure was built out by adventurers, geniuses and speculators. The modern-day analogy would be a delay in the schedule of model-improvements and data centre build-outs by Anthropic and OpenAI. Many economists believe the 1929 crash — the subject of Ahamed’s previous book, Lords of Finance, winner of the 2009 FT Business Book of the Year Award — was made wors...

Det fanns aldrig några garantier för att bryggerier skulle bli det vanligaste nya företaget i Sverige på tiotalet.  Eller för att svenskarna samtidigt skulle dricka mindre och bättre, bland annat genom att villigt betala betydligt mer för hantverksöl än för aldrig så högbeskattad ljus lager. Mattias Svensson SvD 21 juni 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/JOBVxj/fria-samhallen-ar-goda-samhallen I måndags fick Keane Brewing i Larsberg äran att ta emot några mycket framstående gäster för en ölprovning.  Bland dem fanns EU-kommissionens ordförande - Ursula von der Leyen, Sveriges statsminister - Ulf Kristersson, Europaparlamentets ledamot Tomas Tobé och den svenska riksdagsledamoten Jessica Rosencrantz. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/kristersson-manar-till-enighet-i-orolig.html Politiska högdjur gästade Keane   https://www.beernews.se/articles/politiska-hogdjur-gastade-keane/ Japanese brewer’s Takeshi Minakata says alcohol ‘can be a good thing’ as it ‘helps make people happ...

 Myndigheterna varnar för temperaturer uppemot 40 grader. – Det kommer bli svåra dagar, sa Frankrikes president Emmanuel Macron inför värmeböljan och uppmanade franska medborgare till ”stor vaksamhet”. SvT 19 juni 2026 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/europa-hukar-sig-for-varmebolja-exceptionella-temperaturer Heat wave in France: 'This is an unprecedented event, with about a one-in-1,000 chance of occurring in a given year' This episode is striking due to its intensity (with temperatures above 35°C), its early arrival, its duration (about 10 days), and its regional reach, as it is affecting all of Western Europe, including the United Kingdom and Ireland.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/det-hettar-till.html En omfattande värmebölja med temperaturer kring 40 grader lamslår delar av Europa.  I Frankrike har regeringen utfärdat ett förbud mot alkoholförsäljning under en årlig musikfestival. På söndagen infaller den årliga statligt finansierade musikfestivalen Fêt...

  Det är under närmast kuppartade former som Andy Burnham, borgmästare i Manchester, nu tar ytterligare ett steg mot att utmana Keir Starmer om premiärministerposten.  Vinsten innebär att han tar en plats i det brittiska parlamentet – något han som borgmästare inte haft men som i praktiken krävs för att bli partiledare och premiärminister. Den tidigare parlamentsledamoten från Makerfield lämnade för några veckor sedan sin post i syfte att kratta manegen för Burnham. SvD 19 juni 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/n14kkB/anyd-burnham-kan-utmana-starmer-sa-kan-han-ta-makten We shouldn’t overlook what the Makerfield by-election means for Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage.  The by-election result may be the moment that Reform UK's march to power is arrested, as the party failed to win despite leading every opinion poll since April 2025. If, as seems possible, this is the moment that the hard-right populist party’s march to power is arrested, that would ultimately be just as histori...

  Manchester-socialism, Andy Burnham https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/manchester-socialism-andy-burnham.html Burnham will break fiscal rules to borrow, banks warn. MMT. Överskottsmålet. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/burnham-will-break-fiscal-rules-to.html Hillary Rodham Clinton supports Trump’s Gaza plan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/hillary-rodham-clinton-supports-trumps.html Credit ratings, Tett and Private Credit. 2008 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/credit-ratings-tett-and-private-credit.html Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/18-juni.html

Keir Starmer says Labour should "pull together" following Andy Burnham's win in the Makerfield by-election. In a call with Labour staff, the PM warns against "turning on each other and tearing apart our party and our movement" BBC 19 June 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c3928mlyle8t Allan Monks at JP Morgan said: “We see a high risk that he would consider a change to the fiscal rules, despite appearing to rule this out in recent weeks.” This would risk delaying interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, which it expects to resume next year. Telegraph 19 June 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/19/pound-burnham-gilts-bond-markets-borrowing-costs-ftse-100/ MMT Statens underskott är ditt överskott https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/statens-underskott-ar-ditt-overskott.html Regeringen kritiseras av Riksrevisionen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/regeringen-kritiseras-av-riksrevisionen.html

EU delays trade confrontation with China; “global macroeconomic imbalances” Leaders opt for dialogue with Beijing rather than immediate action over fears of retaliation. The EU has delayed a trade confrontation with China at a summit that exposed divisions within the bloc over how to deal with cheap imports from Beijing that have eroded European industrial output and cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. Despite combative rhetoric in the lead-up to the Brussels meeting, the 27 leaders opted for dialogue rather than immediate action to deal with what they called “global macroeconomic imbalances”.  Demanded the EU “stop naivety towards the long-term ambitions of China”.  Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez told reporters when arriving at the summit that China is a “potential ally”. Financial Times 19 June 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/e220372c-b20e-418e-9f02-29a5aa269702?syn-25a6b1a6=1

  Erik Gordon, an American finance professor, posed a pointed question relating to Fool’s Gold, my book about the 2008 financial crisis : should we now feel some déjà vu?  Not because of what is happening with tech stocks nor with Wall Street demands for deregulation. Rather, the issue (once again) is credit ratings.  Before the 2008 crisis, there was a proliferation of financial products that could be used for regulatory arbitrage, playing with the Basel rules to enable banks to reduce the capital reserves they held against defaults.  Credit ratings were crucial to this. Gillian Tett Financial Times 19 June 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/bfcb04a7-8e13-480a-aa59-a13dee53c698?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Gillian Tett https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/07/gillian-tett-en-av-mina-gurus.html

The world may not like Trump’s Gaza plan — but there is no alternative. If even I, an implacable opponent of the president, can accept this as the best option, then surely others can too? There is no alternative framework waiting in the wings. No rival coalition is quietly preparing a more viable proposal.  The 20-point plan is not the one many of us would have drafted, but it remains the only framework backed by sufficient leverage, political engagement and potential resources to move the parties towards implementation.  It has been reinforced through a UN Security Council resolution and further advanced by the roadmap from Nickolay Mladenov and the Board of Peace (which seeks to link reconstruction and governance transition to the dismantling of Hamas’s military infrastructure and longer-term stabilisation in Gaza). Without such a plan, the crisis in Gaza will only deteriorate, with Hamas retaining both political and practical influence over a devastated population. Hillary ...

Analysts expect S&P 500 companies’ earnings growth to top 20% for a second consecutive quarter in the current period, in part because of soaring profits by semiconductor makers and other AI-infrastructure companies. This has lent crucial support to the booming stock market, helping keep valuation ratios in check. When Nvidia sells its chips, for instance, it books the revenue and earnings quickly.  But its end customers treat the purchases as capital assets, recognize them only gradually as depreciation on their income statements. So, while the outlays immediately hurt the customers’ free cash flow, they get to spread out the acquisition costs over many years. This is the normal way assets get booked and then gradually written down.  What stands out is the sheer size of the capex boom. Jonathan Weil Wall Street Journao June 18, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/turbocharged-earnings-are-pushing-stocks-higher-theres-a-catch-100839c9 Sällan har investerare varit besatta av et...

Critics of JD Vance think that his key role in the Iran negotiations may end up being an albatross around his neck.  (“If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD,” President Trump said in France this week.) But in our conversation, the vice president seemed buoyant and eager to play the salesman, insisting that the deal is better than the pact President Barack Obama sealed in 2015. I asked him about his initial opposition to the war, his conflict with the pope and whether his political future is riding on the success of the Iran agreement. We also discussed Vance’s new book, “Communion,” Douthat: So let’s start with the most basic question. What is in this deal that is good for America and good for the world that we couldn’t have gotten without three months of military conflict? The Obama-Iran nuclear deal allowed them to generate a stockpile of enriched uranium. Our deal ensures that stockpile is destroyed and eliminated, so that’s a very, very big difference, a very important di...

  Regeringen gav Folkhälsomyndigheten i uppdrag att lyfta ”existentiell hälsa”. Nu uttalar sig socialminister Jakob Forssmed (KD) efter Aftonbladets granskning . – Det här är grundläggande för att en människa ska fungera. Syftet var att se om vi kan inkorporera mer av arbetet för att ge utrymme för den här typen av frågor i folkhälsoarbetet, inte nödvändigtvis i sjukvården men i det breda folkhälsoarbetet. Enligt Aftonbladets uppgifter ska den tidigare generaldirektören Karin Tegmark Wisell varit skeptisk till uppdraget – och kort därefter fått sparken. https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/8pEeEA/forssmed-om-existentiell-halsa-viktig-dimension Tove Lifvendahl: Ulf Kristersson och Birgitta Ed  Aftonbladets reporter Lisa Röstlund har gjort en granskning som publicerats i flera delar av den stiftelseverksamhet som statsministerns hustru Birgitta Ed grundade ihop med vännen Göran Thorstenson 2024.  Verksamheten, som är inriktad på andliga retreats med kristna värderingar som...

  At the time of writing, Elon Musk’s SpaceX is America’s fifth-biggest company, its market cap of $2.75 trillion narrowly edging Amazon.com Inc. ($2.65 trillion) into sixth place.  It’s been trading for only three days, but will soon arrive in Nasdaq’s indexes. Even if we assume it’s sensibly valued (a heroic assumption), it poses critical problems for investors, and passive funds in particular. Investors move ever more in crowds, out of a basic instinct for self-preservation. Just like wildebeest on the savannah, there is more safety in the middle of the herd than as an outlier at the front or back, where they will be far more vulnerable to predators. That tendency toward herding gnaws away further at market efficiency.  John Authers Bloomberg June 17, 2026   https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-06-17/spacex-is-bad-gnus-for-passive-investing Passive investors have 'fundamentally broken' the market, David Einhorn says. Indexfonder är en fara för aktiem...