Englund

  Tydliga uppgångar på USA-börserna – flera teknikjättar vinnare https://www.di.se/live/tydliga-uppgangar-pa-usa-borserna-flera-teknikjattar-vinnare/ Massflykt från världens marknader Det sammanvägda indexet MSCI Asia Pacific faller runt 4 procent, samtidigt som sydkoreanska Kospi tappar mer än 9 procent, det största raset sedan den globala finanskrisen år 2008. DI 4 mars 2026, 07:54 https://www.di.se/live/morgonkoll-borsras-i-sydkorea-storsta-fallet-sedan-finanskrisen/ När fondförvaltarna tvingas sälja. Då är vi illa ute. Peter Malmqvist och Ulf Petersson DI/TV 4 mars 2026, 09:58 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/fondspararna-utloser-nasta-borskrasch.html Attack on Iran increases economic hazards facing the US economy from “very high” to “extreme”.   Energy prices and global political turbulence.  Core PCE inflation running at 3%. A lasting spike in oil prices could lead to stagflation , – higher inflation plus slower growth, a combination that the Fed is powerle...

 The Stock Market Rotation Goes Sour The biggest winners in the equity market this year are some of its biggest losers this week. In recent months, investors have flocked to blue-chip companies, small-cap shares and international markets in bets that market gains would broaden beyond the top U.S. names in artificial intelligence. Those "rotation" plays into new sectors are all getting pummeled today.  Industrials and materials are among the worst-performing sectors in the S&P 500. The Russell 2000 small-stock index is down 1.6% over the past week, on par with losses for other major U.S. indexes. Meanwhile, foreign benchmarks like Japan’s Nikkei 225 and the German DAX slid more than 3% Tuesday. Wall Street Journal 3 mars 2026 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-03-03-2026/card/the-stock-market-rotation-goes-sour-565qWPBYfJfdYfVqRrxk Livsnerven i en tjurmarknad är sektorrotation https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/livsnerven-i-en-tjur...

Oljepriset rusar – Trump utesluter inte marktrupper https://www.dagensps.se/bors-finans/oljepriset-rusar-nar-iran-konflikten-trappas-upp/ Monitoring the Situation https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/monitoring-situation.html Måndagens handel på Wall Street vände till grönt framåt stängning,  efter att investerare köpt i dippen,  en trend som inte ser ut att hålla i sig på tisdagen. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-03/iran-latest The Iran war is rapidly engulfing the region    The Economist https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/03/02/the-iran-war-is-rapidly-engulfing-the-region What is happening is precisely the most disruptive scenario I /Martin Wolf/ envisaged when the Gaza war began in 2023, namely a war that affects the entire Gulf.  The region is much the world’s most important energy supplier. According to the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, it contains 48 per cent of global proven oil reserves and produced 31 ...

When there’s modern military conflict, men are, as the self-deprecating but unusually sincere internet meme now goes, “monitoring the situation.” In one sense, this is radically new. In the age of social media, open-source satellites, and group chats, technology can now provide real-time updates on everything from the movements of aerial military fuel tankers to clips from hostile countries’ state TV networks Hence, in 2022, when Russian tanks were getting bogged down on their way to what almost everyone at the time predicted was going to be a swift dismantling of the Ukrainian state, Elon Musk posted a meme that sums up the whole thing: We modern Western civilian men feel, I think, a sort of shame about how utterly actionless modern life is for those who are not flying F-35s, or otherwise involving ourselves in the physical protection of anything. That’s why my wife jokes, not without justification, that when my male friends and I get together, it takes us fewer than 10 minutes to sta...

Ett år in i USA:s president Donald Trumps andra mandatperiod har de globala finans- och energimarknaderna lärt sig en läxa som förkortas TACO. Trump Always Chickens Out. Trump fegar alltid ur. Enligt TACO-doktrinen är Trumps förlåtande drag hans förmåga att ändra sig. När en vansinnig idé slår snett eller visar sig för kostsam hittar han en reträttväg att vika av på. I regel är det just finansmarknaderna som skickar signalen. Och efteråt kan alla låtsas som det regnar. Men det finns gränser för hur starkt denna mekanism fungerar som nödbroms på det skenande Trumptåget.   När finansmarknaderna ser ett nytt ansvarslöst infall från Trump antar man numera genast att förloppet kommer att sluta i något relativt harmlöst. En risk är därför att stoppsignalen försvagas och till slut inte når fram förrän det är för sent. Förutom det lokala lidandet är potentialen för utdragen förstörelse i världsekonomin enorm.   Carl Johan von Seth DN 2 mars 2026 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/car...

   “It’s panic selling,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equities strategy at Barclays. “This is a stagflationary scare. The market was complacent about the scale of this war [before the weekend].” “People are taking risk down,” said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “The market seems to be mentally transitioning from a short war to a long war.” RE: Det finns ju lite att ta av. Financial Times 3March Updated 11:02 https://www.ft.com/content/48a11039-eca6-4af4-89bd-c79b4203aee8 Investor faller tungt för andra dagen i rad i börskaoset efter krigsutbrottet i Mellanösternörsen. Nära 65 miljarder av de 710.000 ägarnas pengar har gått upp i rök hittills denna vecka.  DI tisdag 3 mars 2026, 11:01 https://www.di.se/live/investor-faller-65-miljarder-upp-i-rok-i-borskaoset/ Klockrena köplägen. ”Det är inte att vänta att ärkehertig Franz Ferdinands död kommer att få någon omedelbar eller påtaglig effekt på europeisk politik”, skrev engelska tidning...

”Det är en klassisk svansrisk. Låg sannolikhet, hög påverkan”, säger Erik Lundkvist. ”Det är oftast klokare att agera än att reagera. Att köpa dippen har haft hög sannolikhet att vara rätt strategi.” Även Danske Banks seniora strateg Maria Landeborn beskriver marknadsreaktionen som sansad. Hon ser i nuläget ingen dramatisk köpdipp. ”Det är ingen stor nedgång. Men om vi får tydligare press under veckan tycker jag att man ska se det som ett köptillfälle.” Grundscenariot för året är fortsatt positivt. ”Fed har sänkt räntan och väntas sänka mer. Karl Hedberg, aktiechef på DNB Carnegie Private Banking, delar bilden av en kontrollerad marknadsreaktion, men utesluter inte en fortsatt nedgång. När det gäller tajmningen är han försiktigt opportunistisk. ”I enskilda bolag brukar man prata om tre dagar som tumregel vid stora ras. För marknaden som helhet är det svårare. Man ska inte ha panik att köpa första dagen, utan räkna med viss volatilitet.” Semir Hasanbegovic DI 3 mars 2026 https://www...

JPMorgan Chief Jamie Dimon cautioned that there’s more optimism in the market than there should be given all the risks — such as conflict in the Middle East — that have cropped up. “Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high,” Dimon said Monday in a Bloomberg Television interview at his company’s annual global leveraged-finance conference in Miami.  “I think there’s a little more exuberance than there should be, but we’ve had years of it.” “I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think,” Dimon said. “I think inflation will cause the economic downturn.” Boomberg 2 March 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/jamie-dimon-says-exuberant-market-doesn-t-match-fine-economy JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon warned that inflation could become a “skunk at a party” for the US economy. “There’s some risk there’s more inflation than people think, and that could be like a skunk at a party if that ...

Bo G Andersson argumenterar i dokumentären ”Agenten och mörkläggningen” för att den grandiose Ebbe Carlsson och hans medhjälpare Barrling och Kegö blev medvetet nedtystade, när de  faktiskt med hjälp av den så kallade diplomatavlyssningen säkert visste (?) att Sovjet redan visste, och kanske var djupt inblandade i mordet. Det är lite spännande – men det är väldigt tunt. Johan Croneman DN 2 mars 2026 https://www.dn.se/kultur/johan-croneman-ursakta-klarspraket-svt-men-vi-skiter-i-era-rutiner/ Mordet på Olof Palme i DN https://www.dn.se/om/mordet-pa-olof-palme/ Palmegruppen har, enligt spaningsledaren Dag Andersson, under lång tid försökt arrangera ett förhör med Kegö och Barrling.   Först efter 25 år, i början av 2014, avslöjade Expressen att Palmegruppen hållit ett första förhör med Kegö och Barrling den 16 maj 2014.  Sekretess bedömdes dock hindra dem från att kunna berätta.  Sekretessfrågan kring deras hemligstämplade uppgifter har dock stått i vägen. Expressen...

A better predictor of recessions is the spread between the two indicators. A recession more often than not happens whenever the spread rises to a high level and then begins to retreat. Why? The CCI gives greater weight to what consumers think about the economy in general,  while the UMI more heavily reflects what consumers think about their own personal circumstances.  A spread as wide as it is now means that consumers have greater confidence about the U.S. economy overall than in their personal situations. The job market, for example. Things look good from a macro perspective, with the U.S. unemployment rate near the low end of its historical range.  But from a ground-level perspective, many (if not most) believe that finding a decent-paying job is surprisingly difficult. A recession becomes more likely when consumers become gloomy not only about their personal prospects but the overall economy as well, which is when the CCI-UMI spread begins to narrow. Mark Hulbert Mark...

The executives Ostrover and Lipschultz, joined forces to launch fund manager Blue Owl, turning it into a powerhouse in the booming business of lending to private companies without the use of banks.  They pounced on trends early, zeroing in on lending to software companies, plowing money into artificial intelligence and selling their funds to wealthy individuals. Ostrover and Lipschultz became instant billionaires, buying a hockey team, a piece of a football team and luxury real estate.  Now, the foundations of their empire are cracking—raising questions about the once-sizzling industry’s future and transfixing Wall Street in a mix of schadenfreude and anxiety. Wall Street Journal 1 March 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/blue-owl-private-credit-downfall-b657a53a JPMorgan took the lead last year in financing the $55 billion takeover of Electronic Arts Inc., a record-setting leveraged buyout.  Wall Street saw it as a sign that a lucrative period of bankrolling supe...

 This should be one of Labour’s safest constituencies. It won the seat with more than half the vote in the general election just 18 months ago. But it finds itself squeezed by populists on the Green left and anti-immigrant right. Manchester University’s Rob Ford, a political scientist, says Labour is now walking in the electoral valley of death. The threat is indeed existential.  In Gorton and Denton, Labour was pushed to a miserable third, losing white working-class voters to Reform and students, graduates and Muslims to the avowedly socialist Greens.  All these groups were the bedrock of its 2024 victory. And the outcome wasn’t close.  Starmer’s real failure was articulated by Spencer in her acceptance speech.  “Working hard used to get you something,” she said. “It got you a house, a nice life, holidays… But now, working hard, what does that get you?” One glimmer of light for Labour is that this was also a bad night for Reform. Rosa Prince Bloomberg February ...

  Used for agricultural machinery, ships and railways, making it a crucial industrial fuel.  Prices at one point early Monday shot up over 21% amid reports that one of Saudi Aramco’s biggest refineries, Ras Tanura, was hit by a drone strike, forcing its closure. Barbara Kollmeyer MarketWatch March 2, 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gasoil-is-spiking-more-than-crude-what-it-is-and-why-prices-are-soaring-amid-iran-conflict-af45ca50

Mom-and-pop investors pulling their cash in fear of corporate defaults spiking and artificial intelligence destroying many of the software businesses that these funds have lent to.  Michelle Bowman, the Federal Reserve board member in charge of regulation, said banks should have the flexibility to compete.  “Nonbank financial institutions continue to increase their share of the total lending market, creating strong competition for regulated banks without facing the same prudential standards,” she told the Senate banking committee on Thursday. After the financial crisis of 2008, banking rules were overhauled to stop deposit-funded lenders betting on markets or directly lending to most high-risk borrowers. All nonbanks combined now hold more assets than all banks.  One major concern is that this shadow banking sector, as it is known, has turbocharged its impact on the economy by borrowing from traditional lenders, too. In the US, bank loans to nonbanks have been the fastest...

People are complacent about risk of financial crisis, says Lloyd Blankfein, former Goldman CEO.  Says finance industry should plan as though another 2008-style meltdown is coming. Concerns mount about the economic disruption from artificial intelligence and the underwriting standards at many non-bank lenders, which have proliferated in the past two decades.  Blankfein is out with a memoir this month. The main drama in Streetwise is the 2008 financial crisis. We were constantly challenging our traders to sell into the market, to see the true value. Streetwise: Getting To and Through Goldman Sachs.  It charts his unlikely rise from Brooklyn public housing to running one of the world’s most important financial institutions. Forbes pegs his net worth at around $1.7bn.  “I’ve met a few people in my life where they were so smart I couldn’t even figure out how they saw the world,” Blankfein said, naming Elon Musk and Warren Buffett. “But most of the time, people aren’t that...