Englund

A better predictor of recessions is the spread between the two indicators. A recession more often than not happens whenever the spread rises to a high level and then begins to retreat. Why? The CCI gives greater weight to what consumers think about the economy in general,  while the UMI more heavily reflects what consumers think about their own personal circumstances.  A spread as wide as it is now means that consumers have greater confidence about the U.S. economy overall than in their personal situations. The job market, for example. Things look good from a macro perspective, with the U.S. unemployment rate near the low end of its historical range.  But from a ground-level perspective, many (if not most) believe that finding a decent-paying job is surprisingly difficult. A recession becomes more likely when consumers become gloomy not only about their personal prospects but the overall economy as well, which is when the CCI-UMI spread begins to narrow. Mark Hulbert Mark...

The executives Ostrover and Lipschultz, joined forces to launch fund manager Blue Owl, turning it into a powerhouse in the booming business of lending to private companies without the use of banks.  They pounced on trends early, zeroing in on lending to software companies, plowing money into artificial intelligence and selling their funds to wealthy individuals. Ostrover and Lipschultz became instant billionaires, buying a hockey team, a piece of a football team and luxury real estate.  Now, the foundations of their empire are cracking—raising questions about the once-sizzling industry’s future and transfixing Wall Street in a mix of schadenfreude and anxiety. Wall Street Journal 1 March 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/blue-owl-private-credit-downfall-b657a53a JPMorgan took the lead last year in financing the $55 billion takeover of Electronic Arts Inc., a record-setting leveraged buyout.  Wall Street saw it as a sign that a lucrative period of bankrolling supe...

 This should be one of Labour’s safest constituencies. It won the seat with more than half the vote in the general election just 18 months ago. But it finds itself squeezed by populists on the Green left and anti-immigrant right. Manchester University’s Rob Ford, a political scientist, says Labour is now walking in the electoral valley of death. The threat is indeed existential.  In Gorton and Denton, Labour was pushed to a miserable third, losing white working-class voters to Reform and students, graduates and Muslims to the avowedly socialist Greens.  All these groups were the bedrock of its 2024 victory. And the outcome wasn’t close.  Starmer’s real failure was articulated by Spencer in her acceptance speech.  “Working hard used to get you something,” she said. “It got you a house, a nice life, holidays… But now, working hard, what does that get you?” One glimmer of light for Labour is that this was also a bad night for Reform. Rosa Prince Bloomberg February ...

  Used for agricultural machinery, ships and railways, making it a crucial industrial fuel.  Prices at one point early Monday shot up over 21% amid reports that one of Saudi Aramco’s biggest refineries, Ras Tanura, was hit by a drone strike, forcing its closure. Barbara Kollmeyer MarketWatch March 2, 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gasoil-is-spiking-more-than-crude-what-it-is-and-why-prices-are-soaring-amid-iran-conflict-af45ca50

Mom-and-pop investors pulling their cash in fear of corporate defaults spiking and artificial intelligence destroying many of the software businesses that these funds have lent to.  Michelle Bowman, the Federal Reserve board member in charge of regulation, said banks should have the flexibility to compete.  “Nonbank financial institutions continue to increase their share of the total lending market, creating strong competition for regulated banks without facing the same prudential standards,” she told the Senate banking committee on Thursday. After the financial crisis of 2008, banking rules were overhauled to stop deposit-funded lenders betting on markets or directly lending to most high-risk borrowers. All nonbanks combined now hold more assets than all banks.  One major concern is that this shadow banking sector, as it is known, has turbocharged its impact on the economy by borrowing from traditional lenders, too. In the US, bank loans to nonbanks have been the fastest...

People are complacent about risk of financial crisis, says Lloyd Blankfein, former Goldman CEO.  Says finance industry should plan as though another 2008-style meltdown is coming. Concerns mount about the economic disruption from artificial intelligence and the underwriting standards at many non-bank lenders, which have proliferated in the past two decades.  Blankfein is out with a memoir this month. The main drama in Streetwise is the 2008 financial crisis. We were constantly challenging our traders to sell into the market, to see the true value. Streetwise: Getting To and Through Goldman Sachs.  It charts his unlikely rise from Brooklyn public housing to running one of the world’s most important financial institutions. Forbes pegs his net worth at around $1.7bn.  “I’ve met a few people in my life where they were so smart I couldn’t even figure out how they saw the world,” Blankfein said, naming Elon Musk and Warren Buffett. “But most of the time, people aren’t that...

  Aktier faller i Gulfstaterna efter Iranattacken https://www.di.se/nyheter/aktier-faller-i-gulfstaterna-efter-iranattacken/ Wall Street återhämtade sig – trots nytt oljeprislyft De stora nedgångarna på Wall Street uteblev på måndagen, och  indexen vände upp under kvällen. https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-aterhamtade-sig-trots-nytt-oljeprislyft/ Buy the dip Röd börsöppning väntar i Europa – men inte blodig  DI 2 mars 2026, 08:08 https://www.di.se/live/rod-borsoppning-vantar-i-europa-men-inte-blodig/ Flera storbolag föll tungt på sjunkande Stockholmsbörs https://www.di.se/live/flera-storbolag-foll-tungt-pa-sjunkande-stockholmsbors/ Mellanöstern. För börsen är konflikten närmast betydelselös. Tvärtom är eventuella kursfall i stället klockrena köplägen. ”Det är inte att vänta att ärkehertig Franz Ferdinands död kommer att få någon omedelbar eller påtaglig effekt på europeisk politik”, skrev engelska tidningen The Guardian efter att tronarvingen till Österrike-Ungern mördat...

Egentligen är det ogörligt att fråga sig vad som hade hänt om han fått leva – och än mer ogörligt att undra hur han skulle se på dagens uppgifter; i en annan tid och under helt andra förutsättningar än hans. Men låt mig ändå försöka. Hade den djupa 1990-talskrisen kunnat undvikas med honom vid rodret? Sannolikt inte. Även en Palme-regering hade tvingats till saneringsåtgärder. Skulle Palme ha varit för ett svenskt EU-medlemskap? Absolut! Skulle han vara för en övergång till euron? Det är svårare att veta.  Min gissning är att han i dag nog skulle säga ja. Inte av ekonomiska skäl utan av politiska - för att bygga ett mer sammansvetsat Europa i en hårdare omvärld. Då skulle handlingsmänniskan vilja sitta med vid bordet, inte bara titta på. Klas Eklund DN Debatt 27 februari 2026 https://www.dn.se/debatt/i-dag-skulle-palme-nog-ha-omprovat-sin-egen-politik/ RE: Det är genant att behöva påpeka det, men kan verkligen Klas Eklund tro på att vi får ett mer sammansvetsat Europa och att Sveri...

  The curse of Europe’s one-size-fits-all currency union has struck again. Real interest rates set by the uropean Central Bank (ECB) are too high for France’s stagnant high-debt economy. At the other extreme, borrowing costs are too low for Portugal and Bulgaria, whose economies are overheating and property prices are surging at annual rates above 15pc. The latest caretaker government has imposed a status quo budget by decree power, using the infamous Article 49.3 after it promised not to do so. This tension is now pitting France against Germany. “France has the highest level of public spending in Europe, the highest budget deficit in the eurozone and the fastest rising public debt,” said François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the Bank of France, speaking to the French senate. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 27 February 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/02/27/france-has-become-the-giant-problem-child-of-the-eurozone/

  Given the Strait carries about one in five barrels of oil in the world, if it is shut down “you are dealing with a monumental shock to the global oil price”.  Financial Times 1 March 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/31bfc01b-42a8-45f1-85d3-8f973595a456 War in Iran could cause the biggest oil shock in years On February 28th the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s praetorian guard, broadcast warnings that shipping through the strait was no longer permitted. Enforcing that threat will be hard. American forces would probably dismantle any blockade within hours. Yet the strait is fast becoming unnavigable anyway.  Satellite jamming is disrupting ships’ signals, raising the risk of collisions. Iran could deploy mines to make navigation even more hazardous. In the early hours of March 1st the Skylight, a Palau-flagged tanker blacklisted by America, was hit by a rocket off the coast of Oman. Insurers are jacking up rates or cancelling policies altogether for v...

For the habitual critics of U.S. foreign policy in general and Donald Trump’s in particular, the analogy between today’s air raids against Iran and the invasion of Iraq nearly 23 years ago is too obvious to be resisted. “Once again,” Simon Tisdall ranted in The Guardian, “a bellicose US president has unleashed overwhelming military firepower to force a sovereign nation to its knees. Once again, blatant lies and exaggerated claims are being propagated to justify the attack. Duplicitous American diplomacy became a fig leaf for premeditated aggression. The cautionary advice of allies was spurned. The UN, international law, and public opinion were ignored. Democratic consent is lacking. And once again, there are few defined goals by which to gauge success, and no long-term plan. . . . Like Bush, Trump manufactured a crisis, founded on falsehood, and effectively cornered himself.” And so on. Kriget mot Iran kan göra ”vinnaren” Trump till en förlorare Det är sant att USA länge har varit en i...

Nu ska Högsta domstolen avgöra om den tidigare Swedbankchefen ska sitta i fängelse för att ha mörkat bankens problem.   Alltihop började med att Estlands finansinspektion i flera år kritiserade Danske Banks Estlandsfilial för att den såg mellan fingrarna med hur så kallade högriskkunder i öst, framför allt rika ryssar, slussade pengar från sina hemländer till skatteparadis som Brittiska Jungfruöarna. Danske Banks filial i landet förlorade sitt banktillstånd 2015. Den 19 september 2018 presenterades utredningen, som kom fram till att motsvarande 2 000 miljarder svenska kronor hade slussats in och ut ur filialen 2007–2015 och att de flesta transaktioner var misstänkta. - Vi hittade ingenting. Vi har gått igenom alla kunder som var med i mediernas rapportering om Danske Bank och ingen av dem är, eller har varit, kunder i Swedbank. Inte en enda. Det var korrekt, som Birgitte Bonnesen sa, att ingen av de kunder som var med i mediernas rapportering om Danske bank var kund i Swedbank...

Keynes saw where AI might take us .Photographer: Tim Gidal/Picture Post/Hulton Archive/Getty Images In 1930, John Maynard Keynes took time out from thinking about the Great Depression, which was throwing millions out of work, to write a charming essay about the “economic possibilities for our grandchildren.”  Our grandchildren would be able to meet all their material needs by working 15 hours a week. But this would leave what Keynes called “the permanent problem of the human race.” How to use the resulting freedom from economic necessity to live a good life — or as Keynes put it “how to live wisely and agreeably and well.” AI may be about to prove Keynes spectacularly right just in time for his century deadline.  The AI revolution is beginning to do for knowledge work what the combine harvester did for agricultural jobs and the factory did for mechanical jobs — mechanizing routine tasks that were once reserved for human beings  Jobs provide people with a combination of ps...

För att uppgången ska fortsätta måste andra sektorer ta över taktpinnen. De globala börserna klättrar vidare och även i Stockholm avlöser rekorden varandra. Varje nedställ köps snabbt upp och kurserna pressas högre. Men under ytan bubblar det Så länge kapitalet rör sig vidare – från tech till finans, från tillväxt till värde, från USA till Europa – kan trenden leva vidare även om de tidigare vinnarna tappar fart. Problemet uppstår först om rotationen stannar av. Enligt börsprofilen Erik Hansén. Semir Hasanbegovic DI 27 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/expertens-borslarm-en-klassisk-varningssignal/ Fondspararna utlöser nästa börskrasch, tror jag. De stora placerarna, typ pensionsfonder, brukar rotera, vilket är att de säljer några slags aktier och köper några andra aktieslag. Men pengarna på marknaden är oförändrad. Med aktiefonder är det annorlunda. När fondspararna löser in andelar måste fonden sälja och utbetala pengarna. Då slinker pengarna ut ur marknaden. Rolf Englund 23 fe...

FS KKR shares tumble 15% as markdowns highlight growing strains in debt extended to unlisted companies https://www.ft.com/content/06213ba6-5634-4c1c-b949-07013824c79f   Credit Market’s Reality Check Follows Decade of Loose Lending Investors have been drawn to high yields—but opacity, complexity and hidden “cockroaches” are worth worrying about. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-02-05/the-pessimist-s-guide-to-the-credit-boom

Almost 70 years after the bloc’s founders set out a course for “ever closer union,” key countries still aren’t ready to commit.  So the EU limps forward, unprepared for a new age of global conflict and at risk of living up to Emmanuel Macron’s warning in 2024: Unless it changes course, things could fall apart. Macron has spent his entire political career wrestling with euroskeptic opponents. When he steps down next year, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is in a strong position to finally claim the French presidency after a series of near misses. Ever since Dutch and French voters threw out a constitutional treaty in 2005, successive generations of EU leaders swerved treaty change, afraid of career-ending, Union-damaging rejection. The least dramatic — but surely most European — end would involve not a sudden collapse but a gradual fading away. While the bloc’s structures would endure, it would slowly lose its ability to shape the policy of its members and global rivals. When Mario Dr...

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Tungt veckoslut på Wall Street Oro över AI, inflation och en bankkollaps sänkte Wall Streets humör rejält. Nvidia föll ytterligare 4,2 procent https://www.di.se/live/tungt-veckoslut-pa-wall-street/ Wall Street’s financial firms ended February bruised and battered.  The month witnessed the continued march of artificial intelligence as advances in the technology increasingly augur reckonings for legacy industries. Throw in more signs of private credit’s expensive shortcomings, and you had a winter recipe for red ink. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-27/february-can-t-end-too-fast-for-banks-evening-briefing-americas https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-02-27-2026/card/bank-stocks-head-for-worst-day-since-april-YBqboCCBtVytEUIBKhXq Börsen 16 april 2024 börjar neråt - ”horoskop för killar” Bank Shares Hit Three-Month Low Heightened anxiety about the threat from artificial intelligence and suddenly shaky bets on private credit delivered ...

When Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933, Germany’s economy was in dire straits. Under Chancellor Heinrich Brüningthe German government had clung dogmatically to economic orthodoxy in the face of the Great Depression, staying on the gold standard /fast växelkurs/ and imposing ever harsher fiscal austerity /den som är satt i skuld är inte fri/.  The result was economic devastation and extremely high unemployment. Hitler broke with the economic orthodoxy, enabling him to preside over a rapid economic recovery.  The popularity he gained from the economic revival allowed him to consolidate power. Paul Krugman Substack Feb 27, 2026 https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-economics-of-faltering-fascism There was hyperinflation during the Weimar era, and it did contribute to a general sense of chaos that undermined the fledgling republic.  But that peaked in 1923, the year Hitler botched a putsch and went to jail — a full decade before he seized power.  https://englundmacro.b...

The week when AI changed everything The stock market tumbled. Anthropic new tools and then Anthropic entered into an epic battle with Pentagon. Block laid off 4,000 people — nearly half of its staff — because of AI.  What a week, indeed. Here’s how it unfolded. Auzinea Bacon CNN  Feb 28, 2026 https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/28/business/ai-week-anthropic-nvidia-block In the past, infrastructure was built for a new technology and it often took years for that infrastructure to be fully employed.  It’s unlikely that today’s prices for enormously profitable companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google are going to turn out to have been ruinously excessive.  On the other hand, the start-ups to which multi-billion-dollar valuations are being assigned — some of which have yet to describe their strategies or announce products — can only be viewed as lottery tickets.  Most people who participate in lotteries end up with worthless tickets, but the few winners get very ri...

Handelsdagen i USA präglades av Nvidias rapport, som utlöste stora ras i flera halvledarbolag.  Nvidia föll 5,5 procent. Det innebär att runt 260 miljarder dollar, motsvarande nära 2.300 miljarder kronor, gått upp i rök. Broadcom föll 10,6 procent, vilket innebär att runt 55 miljarder dollar, motsvarande 500 miljarder kronor, av bolagets börsvärde gått upp i rök. Trojkan Micron, AMD och Intel tappade runt 3 procent var, motsvarande ett sammanlagt börsvärdestapp på motsvarande 600 miljarder kronor. https://www.di.se/live/chipfrossa-sankte-nasdaq-spotify-steg-rejalt/ Stockholmsbörsen föll från intradagshögsta när halvledarfrossa  pressade Wall Street.  https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-sankte-stockholmborsen/ Börsvärde på 3.000 miljarder kronor upp i rök på en timme https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/borsvarde-pa-3000-miljarder-kronor-gatt.html “this time it’s different”. On the other hand, Sir John Templeton, who first drew my attention to those four words, was qui...

Klarrött i chipbolagens aktier på Wall Street efter Nvidias rapport.  Nvidia backar mer än 4 procent. Det innebär att nära 218 miljarder dollar, motsvarande nära 2.000 miljarder kronor, gått upp i rök.  DI 26 februari 2026, 17:03 https://www.di.se/live/3-000-miljarder-upp-i-rok-i-halvledarraset/ RE: Det är 96 procent kvar, vilket ger en indikation på hur stort värdet på Nvidia är. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/nvidia-rekordkvartal-resultat-per-aktie.html

The K-shaped economy is creating new challenges for food companies. The traditional strategy—once built around a broad, stable middle class—has effectively collapsed.  Companies that previously sold to the masses now need to deploy two distinct playbooks: one for cash-strapped shoppers and another for higher-income consumers buoyed by rising stock markets. Higher earners have the “ability to invest” when promotions hit. They can buy 10 of an item on sale because they have both the liquid capital and the physical space—large pantries or even second freezers—to store it.  Wall Street Journal 26 February 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/how-the-k-shaped-economy-plays-out-in-grocery-aisles-dc29121c What is a K-shaped economy? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/bessent-kill-line-and-k-shaped-economy.html In the 1960s and ‘70s, the US had a robust middle class, and the national income distribution looked like a bell curve.  h ttps://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/...

Replanting themselves and their families in lands they find more affordable and safe.   A millions-strong diaspora is studying, telecommuting and retiring overseas. The new American dream, for some of its citizens, is to no longer live there. Sunset in Cadaques Spain. Tony Hicks/Associated Press On a conference call last month hosted by Expatsi, a relocation company, almost 400 Americans signed up to learn how to move to Albania.  The former Stalinist state offers a special visa allowing U.S. citizens to live and work there, with no tax on foreign income for a year, no questions asked. Michael Le Blanc, a 56-year-old former creative producer at Adobe and Paramount now freelancing from Lisbon, moved with his two children after the second active shooter scare at his 8-year-old son’s Los Angeles school.  In the six months since, his wife, Stephanie, a 42-year-old academic adviser in the U.S., has found work selling Lisbon real estate to incoming Americans.  Some 58...

Hon påstår att hon har gjort vad hon kunnat för att skydda folkets ekonomiska intressen genom krisen och att nu är pengarna för reformer nästa mandatperiod slut. Det är inte sant. Låt oss syna Svantessons bluff. Annie Ross, ordförande i s-föreningen Reformisterna Pengarna är inte slut - de har bara flyttat till de rikastes bankkonton. Medan vanligt folk blivit fattigare har den rikaste tiondelen av befolkningen fått det rejält bättre.  Fler skattebefriade aktievinster, riktade skatteavdrag för miljonärer och skräddarsydda skatteavdrag till riskkapitalister har alla tillfallit ett litet antal människor i samhällets ekonomiska topp.  Och fortsätter göra det för varje år som går. Blir det här valet en kamp om vem som är bäst på att, helt i onödan, dra åt svångremmen, minska underskott och vara allra mest sparsam? Annie Ross, ordförande i s-föreningen Reformisterna DI 26 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/debatt/att-pengarna-ar-slut-ar-en-bluff/ Just nu är Sverige ett attraktivt alte...