Not using the euro, Britain could actually leave, rather than rioting but staying
British, with the Greeks and the Italians, were early rebels.
The euro is the stumbling block for Continental Eurosceptics.
Talk of leaving terrifies the middle class, whose savings are endangered. Sudden realisation of this put paid to Marine Le Pen’s “Frexit” rhetoric overnight.
When the Brexit vote met stubborn resistance from most of the British elite, resulting in years of political and emotional turmoil, Continental Euroscepticism ground to a halt.
Post-Brexit confusion – played up shamelessly by the EU media – made membership seem a lesser evil.
So Euroscepticism evolved the strategy of taking over the EU from within.
Hence the rise of the populist Right.
The Remainers in the Conservative Party will not defend Brexit. They have allowed negative propaganda to go unchecked, even from their own officials.
Rather than defending their party’s most important act in 14 years of government, they allow it to be used as a weapon by the opposition.
They are the authors of their own defeat, and will share the blame for the ensuing damage.
Robert Tombs Telegraph 30 juni 2024
Calmfors: euron kan utgöra en ”försäkring” mot att lämna EU
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/calmfors-euron-kan-utgora-en-forsakring.html
Quelle Horreur! Could France Crash the Euro?
There are two key questions.
First, what kind of government is most likely to result from Sunday’s second round?
Second, how great is the risk of an existential crisis to the euro once it takes office?
Any “Stop Le Pen” coalition is going to be unwieldy and require literally everyone else — from Trotskyists through technocrats to Greens and Gaullists — to agree on everything. That’s unlikely.
The nightmare scenario is that France creates a crisis for the euro analogous to the sovereign debt crisis from 2010 to 2012. At that time, peripheral countries including Greece, Portugal and Ireland were unable to keep their debt within the limits set out in the Maastricht Treaty that created the eurozone.
France, the argument goes, is much bigger than Greece.
If you are Meloni or Le Pen, they’re thinking — either I could exit the euro or I could try to make a difference while I’m here. They’re politicians. You might not agree with them but they’re not stupid.
Christine Lagarde. The European Central Bank is the ultimate underwriter of the eurozone, which it proved in decisively promising to intervene to save the euro if necessary back in 2012.
She is not going too allow her country to implode. And as European banks are in much better shape than in 2010, when their heavy holdings of government debt meant a real risk of a banking meltdown, she’s in a stronger position.
The ECB will only save you if you agree to austerity. Individual countries gave up some of their freedom over their budgets when they joined the euro.
There’s no longer any point playing brinkmanship, because we know how it ends.
John Authers Bloomberg 2 juli 2024
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