Englund

  https://www.amazon.com/Decent-Interval-Insiders-Indecent-Strategy-ebook/dp/B00Q5GZFWQ Consider the 1973 Paris Peace Accords. Kissinger won a Nobel Prize, but Saigon fell. Mr. Trump campaigned that he was the man to negotiate a deal that would end the carnage in Ukraine.  If he does and the deal ultimately goes south—meaning that Vladimir Putin resumes his aggression—it would be a huge stain on his legacy. And rightly so.  As he considers his options, Mr. Trump might want to study a conversation between another Republican president and his secretary of state.  The date was Aug. 3, 1972, when Henry Kissinger told Nixon he thought the odds were about 50/50 he could reach a peace deal with the North Vietnamese. Then as now, security guarantees were a top concern.  The fear was that after the U.S. troops left, North Vietnam would resume the war. What would happen, Nixon asked Kissinger, if Hanoi simply waited a while and then gobbled up South Vietnam? “If a year or...

  In time-honored fashion, those elites in government and media blame “extremism” and “far-right” agitators when, having been excluded from mainstream public discourse, voters turn to political parties that do articulate their views.  The reason parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France are surging is precisely because the opinions they represent—hostility to uncontrolled immigration, support for traditional social and religious values, rejection of environmental eschatology—have been delegitimized by mainstream parties. You would have thought by now that political leaders would have grasped a basic reality of democratic politics —that you can’t beat an argument by marginalizing or silencing it, and that when you try you only make the weakness of your own arguments all the more apparent. Gerard Baker Wall Street Journal 17 February 2025 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/illiberalism-is-suffocating-europe-political-and-economic-repres...

 ”Det är missvisande att kalla detta för fredsförhandlingar”, säger Fredrik Löjdquist, chef för Centrum för Östeuropastudier. Marco Rubio säger att han vill ha en lösning som kan accepteras av alla? – Det finns ingen sådan lösning. Antingen lyckas Putin med sin aggression eller så vinner Ukraina och folkrätten räddas.   SvD 18 februari 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/0VzO3o/expert-efter-usa-s-mote-med-ryssland-oerhort-farlig-situation-for-europa Fredrik Löjdquist är chef över Centrum för Östeuropastudier (Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies, SCEEUS) som är ett fristående kunskapscentrum inrättat och finansierat av regeringen, med organisatorisk hemvist på UI. Löjdquist har en lång karriär bakom sig som svensk diplomat, med tidigare uppdrag som särskilt sändebud och ambassadör för det svenska EU-ordförandeskapet i Georgien 2009, Sveriges ambassadör vid Organisationen för Säkerhet och Samarbete i Europa (OSSE) 2012–2017 och senast som Sveriges första ambassadör och särs...

  The EU is discussing potentially deploying troops to Ukraine if a peace deal is reached.  But experts say such a mission could never succeed without a US backup. "It's early days. There can be no such force without a sustainable deal," Lawrence Freedman, an eminent military historian and strategist, told DW.  "And it shouldn't be called a peacekeeping force, which is supposedly impartial. This is a deterrent force, a reassurance force, designed to deter Russia," or punish it if it violates the agreement, he said. France and Britain have backed the idea, and Sweden, too, has expressed willingness to send troops once peace has been established.  Deutsche Welle 18 February 2025 https://www.dw.com/en/mooted-eu-deployment-in-ukraine-is-fraught-with-challenges/a-71645999 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 18 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-18-februari-2025.html

  Bloomberg 18 February 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-18/european-defense-german-rearmament-is-still-too-slow-to-scare-putin Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 18 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-18-februari-2025.html

  Such a speech has been unthinkable for the last 80 years, thanks to the trans-Atlantic alliance. Europe must now assume that that’s over. Even NATO itself is called into question. Speech by US Vice President JD Vance to the Munich security conference was one of them. You can read it all here, and view it here. This was the most important line: The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia. It’s not China. It’s not any external actor.  What I worry about is the threat from within — the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America. John Authers Bloomberg 18 February 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-18/vance-speech-there-s-no-template-for-the-shock-europe-just-got Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk varnade för att ifrågasätta Europas allians med USA efter en turbulent vecka som har fått många länder att frukta att de inte längre kan räkna med stöd från Washington. http...

  "We welcome that there are talks aimed at creating peace, but it is clear to us that this doesn't mean there can be a dictated peace, and that Ukraine must accept" whatever it is presented with, he said.   Scholz said European leaders were in agreement that Ukraine must have a pathway toward EU membership, and be able to defend it's sovereignty and democracy with European support.  DeutscheWelle 17 February 2025 https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-scholz-calls-for-us-european-unity-at-paris-summit/live-71634533 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 17 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-17-februari-2025.html

  Trump’s Tariffs Are a Mystery, So Investors Keep Buying Stocks Equities near records leave little cushion for trade war risk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-16/trump-s-tariffs-are-a-mystery-so-investors-keep-buying-stocks US Asks Europe What Kyiv Peacekeepers Should Do If Attacked The US has asked European nations to spell out what security guarantees they’re willing to provide Ukraine to ensure a lasting peace settlement and how allies should react if any troops they deploy were attacked by Russia. “It is worth listening to, and not getting offended by the statements of the American allies, indicating the need to increase defense spending,” Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.  He repeated that Poland won’t send its own troops to Ukraine as part of any future peacekeeping force, but would offer logistical support to nations which choose to. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-17/us-asks-europe-how-peacekeepers-should-react-under-russia-attac...

  EU finansierar politiskt stöd med skattemedel Det handlar om hemliga avtal som innebär att EU-kommissionen finansierar organisationer, som utåt ter sig helt självständiga.  Men de bildar bland annat opinion för en specifik EU-kommissionärs politiska mål. Janerik Larsson SvD 16 Februari 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/Oo1g1q/eu-finansierar-politiskt-stod-med-skattemedel Margot Wallström och Prinsen I Bryssel chefade hon bl a över Prince-programmet. PRINCE-programmet (program för att informera de europeiska medborgarna) ”kompletterar och förstärker kommissionens permanenta informationverksamhet för särskilda politikområden”.  Programmet sägs föra samman medlemsstaterna och samhällets organisationer på frivillig basis i en strävan efter decentralisering och närhet till medborgarna. De motsträviga EU-medborgarna skall således med hjälp av sina egna skattepengar fås att förstå att EU och EMU är bra. Inte ens den berömde Machiavelli hade kunnat räkna ut det bättre. Jag friskar upp ...

All five presidents who followed him—six, if we count Donald Trump twice—don’t really seem like presidents as much as simulacra of presidents.  They all knew—or know—how a president is supposed to sound and act and gesticulate, and tried their best to do that. But Bush Sr. was not a simulation of anything Remarks to the Supreme Soviet of the Republic of the Ukraine in Kiev, Soviet Union 1991 https://bush41library.tamu.edu/archives/public-papers/3267 The Free Press 16 February 2025 https://www.thefp.com/p/things-worth-remembering-a-new-world

  JD Vance speaks with Ursula von der Leyen during a bilateral meeting at the US embassy in Paris, on Feb. 11.Photographer: Ian Langsdon/AFP/Getty Images European powers are struggling to forge a response to Trump It was an attack of unbridled ferocity in the name of free speech that laid bare the long-stewing hostility that Donald Trump and his most senior aides feel for the European Union  — they see the bloc as a symbol of big government that constrains US companies. French President Emmanuel Macron is looking to convene an emergency meeting of European leaders in an attempt to come up with a response. Vance, in bilateral meetings in Munich, left open the possibility of US involvement in security guarantees  if Europe significantly stepped up its support, people familiar with the matter said. Bloomberg 15 February 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-15/russia-ukraine-war-trump-rushes-toward-a-deal-with-putin-as-europe-left-in-dust Tillbaka till Rolfs l...

Subscribe to Trumponomics on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to Trumponomics on Spotify Stephanie Flanders Trumponomics 14 februari 2025    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/munich-security-conference-donald-trump-hands-europe-the-bill-for-ukraine-aid Stephanie Flanders on my blogg https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=Stephanie+Flanders+ Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 14 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-14-februari-2025.html

  Ukraina kan inte ta tillbaka förlorad mark och Ryssland kan inte kontrollera hela Ukraina.  Det är rätt att prova nya vägar. Trump har undvikit att koordinera sina planer med européerna.  Han hyser uppenbart inga höga tankar om Europa och dess makthavare utan går direkt på huvudrollsinnehavarna: Vladimir Putin och Volodymyr Zelenskyj. DI Ledare:Frida Wallnor 13 februari 2025, 17:16 https://www.di.se/ledare/europa-maste-fortjana-sin-plats-vid-bordet/ Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 13 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-13-februari-2025.html

 – Konsekvensen av detta blir en stormaktsdiplomati där man styckar en stat ovanför dess huvud, konstaterar Magnus Christiansson, forskare vid Försvarshögskolan. Försvarsministern Pete Hegseths uttalande om att Ukraina i en fredsuppgörelse varken kan behålla sina landgränser från 2014, eller bli medlem i Nato, går stick i stäv med vad de flesta av Natos 31 andra medlemsländer kommunicerat. – Att göra upp utan Ukraina vore oklokt, det som sker med Ukraina ska ske med Ukraina, deklarerade Sveriges försvarsminister Pål Jonson vid Natomötet i Bryssel i onsdags. SvD 13 februari 2025 11.30 https://www.svd.se/a/GyJQ9x/forskare-nato-fungerar-inte-sa-illa-ar-det More than half a dozen senior European officials told the Financial Times they expected the US president to tell them  they must pay for Ukrainian reconstruction and deploy troops there to maintain a peace deal in which they would not be involved. US defence secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday ruled out US troops being deployed...

The Russian central bank assets were frozen as part of measures taken by the Group of Seven and European Union after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.  They are held mainly at the clearing house Euroclear in Europe. Until now, the G-7 has only used the profits generated by the sanctioned assets to provide Ukraine with $50 billion in loans. Germany, Luxembourg and Belgium, where most assets are held through Euroclear, remain very concerned about the idea of confiscation,  fearing its impact on financial stability as well as legal and other risks.  The European Central Bank has warned that seizing the Russian assets could destabilize the Euro system. Using the assets could provide a solution which also benefits the US and its defense companies, one of its proponents said. Bloomberg 12 February 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-12/ukraine-seeks-300-billion-of-russian-assets-to-buy-us-weapons The specter of World War II is haunting...

 Dristar sig någon nu, 2025, att ifrågasätta idén om att upprustning leder till ökad säkerhet eller att påstå att Nato som organisation kan ha svagheter så ligger idiotförklaringen inte långt bort.  Eller om man, som Jimmie Åkesson i EP-valrörelsen förra året, säger att det finns ”en övre gräns” för stödet till Ukraina. Två dagar tog det, den gången, innan Sveriges mest framgångsrika politiker backade. Torbjörn Nilsson SvD 12 februari 20:05 https://www.svd.se/a/mPxJGq/nato-sveriges-nya-asiktskorridor

  Trump said the two leaders had also agreed to work together  and visit each other’s nations.  He added that he would inform Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of their call. https://www.ft.com/content/1b5dde3b-ab6b-4b93-8a1b-6c3a40bb690c USA och Ryssland inleder förhandlingar om kriget Expert: Stor fara med USA:s Ukrainautspel Later this week, White House envoys plan to discuss with their European counterparts how to end the nearly three-year war in Ukraine.  For any negotiations to produce a durable settlement, however, the US and its allies must show they’re willing to enforce it. The Kremlin is unlikely to negotiate more seriously until the costs of war outweigh the costs of peace. That will almost certainly require more Western economic and military pressure — and a credible, long-term commitment to Ukraine’s security. As politically difficult as this will be, the countries most likely to take part — the UK, Poland, France and Germany among them — must beg...

  Vi kommer fortsätta stödja Ukraina – för att det är rätt, men också för att det ligger i vårt nationella intresse.  Det som sker i Ukraina avgör framtiden för den europeiska och globala säkerhetsordningen. Rysslands krig mot Ukraina har skördat hundratusentals människoliv och än fler sårade och skadade.  Genom dessa nya stödåtgärder hjälper vi Ukraina att fortsätta stå emot mot Rysslands aggression, skriver regeringen och SD.   DI 31 januari 2025 https://www.di.se/debatt/sa-starker-vi-ukrainas-totalforsvar/ Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 31 januari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/rolfs-lanktips-31-januari-2025.html

It is an open secret that western special forces are present in Ukraine as “sneakers on the ground”. So far, though, there is no mass deployment of western “boots on the ground”.  That may be about to change.  On-off talks have resumed about how western troops, specifically European forces, could help sustain the ceasefire that Trump hopes to broker with Moscow. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that if Europe is serious about providing an effective deterrent, 200,000 troops would be needed, at a “minimum”. How realistic is Zelenskyy’s figure? Not at all. That is far more than the number of troops that took part in the D-Day landings of the second world war.  The risks of sending in troops may pale in comparison with those of inaction.  As Starmer said during his recent visit to Kyiv:  “This isn’t just about Ukraine’s sovereignty. If Russia succeeds in its aggression, it will affect us all for a very long time.” John Paul Rathbone Financial Times 23 January 2025 http...

Victor Pinchuk likes to stay out of the limelight and hasn’t spoken to the media in years. But he's given away a fortune advocating for Ukraine and knows Donald Trump from way back. That makes him the right conduit for Kyiv's interests as the global elite gather in the Swiss Alps.  Ukraine’s turbulent transition from Soviet rule in the 1990s was the making of Pinchuk and other tycoons.  He built his fortune shipping pipes and used the profits to acquire various assets during large-scale privatization. He developed a diverse business empire, along with a controversial reputation like many former Ukrainian oligarchs.  In 2002 he married Olena, daughter of then-president Leonid Kuchma. In 2004, while his father-in-law was in office, Pinchuk bought the country’s largest steel mill in the city of Kryvyi Rih in tandem with Ukraine’s richest man Rinat Akhmetov.  After Kuchma left as president the following year, the new government seized the mill and resold it to Lakshmi Mi...