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2020-08-09

Att lära sig dö i antropocen - reflektioner över en civilisations slut

We're Doomed. Now What? 

Book by Roy Scranton

https://www.bokus.com/cgi-bin/product_search.cgi?authors=Roy%20Scranton

https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/12/21/were-doomed-now-what/


Central bankers have spent years warning of the perils of excess corporate debt. But

But their solution to this year’s coronavirus storm in financial markets has led to even more of it

The mounting debt burden of businesses curtails policymakers’ room to raise interest rates, for fear of dramatically increasing refinancing costs. .

FT 8 August 2020

 

2020-08-07

MESSERSCHMITT BF-110

 https://amp.welt.de/geschichte/zweiter-weltkrieg/article212822167/Messerschmitt-Bf-110-Der-Superjaeger-der-voellig-versagte.html?fbclid=IwAR1jxVSSmRCXyKlxImb-XtPKuYciPDV9jq6i2P7MJYIheNx9HZtag2IrRPk

Boom and Bust is a global history of financial bubbles

 https://www.boomandbust.co.uk/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-investors-should-do-if-they-think-the-stock-market-is-in-a-bubble-according-to-the-folks-who-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-11596818858

About bubbles on my site



Concerns start to grow among analysts over the longer-term inflation outlook

Investors say negative real yields are driving the ‘everything rally’

Tommy Stubbington and Robin Wigglesworth FT 7 August 2020



Det är kört. Så kan man helt kort sammanfatta Jonathan Jeppssons bok ”Åtta steg mot avgrunden”.

 2050 kommer lika mycket energi att användas till världens luftkonditionering som hela Kina använder i dag för att producera all sin elektricitet”

Några hållbara lösningar för detta ständigt ökande energibehov kan han inte heller se. Även storskaliga satsningar på kärnkraft är i realiteten för sent. Dessutom görs de inte.

------

Boken förskönar inte direkt vår framtid här på jorden och ämnar att få folk att "se sanningen i vitögat". Något som kan uppfattas både hårt och brutalt.

Studio ett 6 augusti 2020


https://www.bokus.com/bok/9789177750871/atta-steg-mot-avgrunden-vart-framtida-liv-pa-planeten/


 




Paris is facing one of its worst heat waves in more than a century

with daily average temperatures hovering around 30 degrees Celsius

“Other than 2003, the capital therefore begins its most dreadfully hot week since 1873,”

Bloomberg 7 August 2020


2020 has seen the third consecutive summer in which the temperature in the UK has exceeded 35C

BBC 7 August 2020


2020-08-06

The Economic Consequences of Mr Sunak

Ending the Government's furlough scheme will go down as one of the biggest policy mistakes in modern British history

Britain is heading for an unemployment crisis of Biblical proportions by the end of the year unless the Treasury's policy is torn up very soon.

While Germany, France, and Australia, among others, are extending support measures into next year, the Treasury offers us the £10 Eat Out scheme

Mr Sunak has his own problems with the Treasury, an institution still in thrall to the austerity doctrines that brought us the "expansionary fiscal contraction" 

“They have committed a conceptual error,” said Bernard Connolly, doyen of British Wicksellians.  




Kronan skvalpar - det är bra.

Dollarn sjunker. Inte bra (för exportindustrin).
Euron stiger Bra (för exportindustrin).



Det är bra att ha rörlig växelkurs.

Det vore dåligt att ha euron.



Solidarity with the Germans

During the worst clashes between the Greek and German governments amid the euro crisis, a German official attempted to dissuade me from insisting on debt relief for Greece with the argument that Germany may be rich, but a majority of its people are poor. 

On this last point, he was right.

During the last two decades, the real disposable income of the poorest 50% has been falling 

The solidarity of German workers, toward whom no one shows any solidarity, has its limits – as it should.

I have just described the fatal divisiveness that has been baked into Next Generation EU.

As I have written elsewhere, it is almost as if the whole thing were designed by a cunning Eurosceptic.



Tyskland lyckades genomföra vad ekonomerna kallar en interndevalvering.
Hur kunde då Tyskland lyckas med det som i dag framstår som omöjligt för länderna i Sydeuropa?

The Hartz IV reforms – so widely praised as the foundation of German competitiveness, and now being foisted on southern Europe – did not raise productivity
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 8 Oct 2014

The legacy of Hartz IV is a lumpen-proletariat of 7.4m people on “mini-jobs”, part-time work that is tax-free up to €450. This flatters the jobless rate, but Germany has become a split society, more unequal than at any time in its modern history. A fifth of German children are raised in poverty.




Google parent Alphabet locks in record-low borrowing costs in $10bn deal

Having initially focused on shoring up their balance sheets to endure the current economic downturn, companies are now beginning to opportunistically refinance debt, or even bring forward scheduled bond issuance due to the low cost of borrowing.



Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken.

Det skrev jag på min blogg första gången den 5 december 2009


Kan man undvika recession i USA?

Jag vill fästa uppmärksamheten på årtalen 1982 och 1992 i Klas första diagram över det amerikanska handelsunderskottet. Det visar att dessa märkesår i svensk ekonomisk politik var de enda år som USA hade balans i sin utrikeshandel.




2020-08-04

Perhaps the deflationary forces that have led to the trend declines in nominal and real interest rates over recent decades may abate and even reverse in the future.

One of us is writing a book on The Great Demographic Reversal (Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2020), forthcoming soon, to argue that this will happen.

But if not, how can we square the inconsistent objectives of maintaining interest rates low enough to maintain macroeconomic equilibrium without at the same time encouraging debt accumulation, fragile financial markets and an inefficient allocation of resources? 

This is a question we need a good answer to.





Argentina's unprecedented economic boom-to-bust history

"Rich as an Argentine" was once a common phrase, back when the South American nation was one of the wealthiest in the world. 

Today, it faces bankruptcy and staggering debt in a saga it can't seem to escape.

Deutsche Welle 4 August 2020


2020-08-03

Tourism’s collapse could trigger next stage of the crisis

The economic impact will stretch well beyond the travel industry


Buoyant equity markets have lulled leaders in Europe and America into a false sense of security.

This is what happened during the stock market rally in 1930, in 1937, and again in 1981. 
On each occasion the authorities pulled the rug away too soon.

Ample liquidity is not the same as fundamental solvency.




Could the principles of Modern Monetary Theory show us a way out of the current economic crisis?

Video with Stephanie Kelton

BBC REEL 29 June 2020

2020-08-01

In June this year, a company called intu collapsed.

It was the owner of many of the UK's biggest shopping centres.

Long before the pandemic struck, the retail sector was in trouble. 




Robert Shiller - En av mina Gurus

“We have highly priced markets in the stock market, the bond market and the housing market,” 
“All of these markets could tumble in the coming months.”

Robert Shiller, Nobel Prize winning economist at Yale University, 





Air travel’s sudden collapse will reshape a trillion-dollar industry

The Economist 1 August 2020