Leta i den här bloggen

2020-08-31

Inflation has remained dormant for so long not because central banks were successful in taming it.

Former Fed chairman Paul Volcker brought down price rises in the 1980s, but at the cost of two recessions. 


Afterwards, expanding global trade, the decline in the crude oil price and the advent of e-commerce pitched in.


Independent central banks targeting inflation did not tame inflation, but the erosion of labour power and the consequent moderation in wages did.


The final act for the US dollar as the global reserve currency. 

It may not be the end, but it is the beginning of the end.


Anantha Nageswaran FT 31 August 2020



Volcker startade sedelpressarna, inte Greenspan.


2020-08-30

China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Guo Shuqing

 “In an international monetary system dominated by the U.S. dollar, the unprecedented, unlimited quantitative easing policy of the U.S. actually consumes the creditworthiness of the dollar and erodes the foundation of global financial stability,” 


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-16/china-s-banking-watchdog-warns-fed-easing-risks-financial-crisis


Under dubbelörnen - Lund spex

Ja, nu är spexet slut, och i full vigör

gå vi att taga snapsen.

Men det är god kutym, att man med en kör

slut uppå spexet gör.

Ja, medgen´ att vår renässans

var den bästa tid som fanns:

den strålar med lockande glans

i vår nutida dekadans,

och kanske i sista instans

skall man finna någonstans,

att den nog är en konnässans,

som hjälper mot intolerans.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxRtevj4PMM

What’s the matter with the west?

Your answer will largely depend on what you mean by “the west”.


Words morph. The term ”liberal” used to mean 19th-century bourgeois nationalists who believed in free trade. In America it evolved to mean people who believe both in social freedom and government intervention in the economy. 


Conservative originally derived from ”conserve” that things should be kept the same. 

Now, in America at least, it means whatever Donald Trump wants it to mean, which can take even his closest acolytes by surprise.


Edward Luce FT 27 August 2020



2020-08-28

Commercial property investors - shadow banking sector

Pandemic exposes stress in commercial property


FT Big Read 30 August 2020


https://www.ft.com/content/e4b2302b-76c5-494a-8560-e6d24de9358f




Concerns mount over reckless 2008-style lending in the $52 trillion shadow banking sector


Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 27 June 2019


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/06/27/concerns-mount-reckless2008-style-lending-52-trillion-shadow/


A bloodbath awaits commercial property investors


https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/06/a-bloodbath-awaits-commercial-property.html

Attention, investors: It’s time for caution in the stock market.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-biggest-problem-in-the-stock-market-bullishness-is-clouding-investors-thinking-2020-08-27




De stora underskotten på 1990-talet var stora, men egentligen inte medveten politik på samma sätt som nu.

Att regeringen satsar aktivt och i den här skalan för att överbrygga en ekonomisk kris har inte skett på länge, inte på 40–50 år. 


Budgetsatsningarna under finanskrisen var betydligt mindre. 


De stora underskotten på 1990-talet var stora, men egentligen inte medveten politik på samma sätt som nu.


Carl Johan von Seth DN 26 augusti 2020


https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/carl-johan-von-seth-miljarderna-i-krisbudgeten-maste-anvandas-snabbt-och-ratt/



Kommentar


"De stora underskotten på 1990-talet var stora, men egentligen inte medveten politik på samma sätt som nu."


Egentligen inte? Var inte alls, en medveten politik. 

Tvärtom var försökte Wibble och även Persson att få ner underskotten,


Göran Persson om 90-talet: Vi gjorde mycket fel, naturligtvis. Kanske borde vi ha sparat lite mindre. 







Opus Magnum - kortversion

Kommer ni ihåg när det var kris och Bildt, Wibble och Ingvar Carlsson skulle spara oss ur krisen med fast växelkurs. 

Sedan bytte alla fot och det som gällde var rörlig växelkurs och ett regelverk som skulle garantera starka statsfinanser. 

This time is different. Nu skall krisen mötas med stora underskott.

Ekonomer är inte oeniga, som det ofta påstås. De är eniga, men föremålen för enigheten växlar. 

För Er som vill hänga med i svängarna, och det vill ju nästan alla, har jag här ett antal länkar om det nya budskapet. 

Underskott spelar ingen roll. Om man har en egen valuta och därmed en egen sedelpress.

Det har Sverige, men inte Grekland och Italien mfl.

Rolf Englund på Facebook 27 augusti 2020

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/MMT

---

Economic theory discredited

https://internetional.se/aztopics.htm#economictheory


Medborgare mot EMU

http://www.nejtillemu.com/medborgare/mindex.htm


Om man har en sedelpress går man inte i konkurs

Rolf Englund november 2011

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2011/11/om-man-har-en-sedelpress-gar-man-inte-i.html


Kronkursförsvaret

https://internetional.se/iccab92.htm




2020-08-27

Fed to tolerate higher inflation in policy shift

The centrepiece of the Fed's new approach is the move to an average inflation target, which will allow it to overshoot the US central bank's per cent target to compensate for persistently low inflation, which has been weighing on the US and other economies in recent years. 


”Following periods when inflation has been running below 2 per cent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time,"Mr Powell said.


FT 27 August 2020


https://www.ft.com/content/e1e59faa-5005-4e1c-9d54-b1a8d4de9586


The Fed’s welcome inflation evolution


Since the financial crisis the major central banks have largely fallen short of their targets, however, undermining trust in the framework along the way. Averaging out inflation is more realistic


By moving the goalposts, Mr Powell is implicitly issuing a mea culpa for those earlier inflation misses. Some might query whether the framework should not be abandoned altogether. 


A question mark will hang, too, over whether or not central banks can ever spur inflation back up to 2 per cent  let alone higher than that.


FT Editorial 27 August 2020


https://www.ft.com/content/610e3e22-22f2-4aaa-b0c2-887db524e522



Inflation targeting has been successful because it managed to anchor expectations — until it did not.


https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-troubling-bit-is-that-these.html









Är det finanspolitiska ramverket om budgetbalans överspelat?

För stunden råder det konsensus – både i riksdagen och bland ekonomer – om att det finanspolitiska ramverk som varit heligt i svensk politik sedan slutet av 1990-talet bör sättas på undantag för att rädda ekonomin. Alla vill se en expansiv politik.


Till och med ramverkets vakthund, Finanspolitiska rådet, anser att det är motiverat av regeringen att tillfälligt strunta i överskottsmålet och det så kallade skuldankaret, som säger att den svenska statsskulden bör ligga runt 35 procent.


Claes Lönegård SvD 27 augusti 2020




2020-08-25

The Great Inflation Debate Is Heating Up

 There’s hardly any question that carries greater weight in economics right now, or divides the financial world more sharply, than whether inflation is on the way back.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-25/the-great-inflation-debate-is-heating-up-with-trillions-at-stake


Deflation and inflation are both on fund managers’ worry lists

FT 24 August 2020

https://www.ft.com/content/672e69b7-d069-4c97-b86c-6e1ba36ece87





This time is different. Maybe. Or not.

 The stock market is rich but may be at a ‘far more reasonable valuation level than traditional measures suggest’

MarketWatch Aug. 24, 2020


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-rich-but-may-be-at-a-far-more-reasonable-valuation-level-than-traditional-measures-suggest-11598295650





2020-08-22

A Love Letter to the Fed From the Adoring Stock Market

 Covid-19 is still killing people. Parents are dreading the beginning of “school.” U.S. unemployment is still above 10%, higher than it’s been since the 1980s. 

The country is facing the biggest economic contraction in its history. Corporate profits are plunging. The recession is forecast to continue at least through the first quarter of next year. 

And me? I’m soaring! Have you seen these record highs I’ve been setting?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-08-21/a-love-letter-to-the-federal-reserve-from-the-adoring-stock-market




Saint Barth: Jetset, det vackra folket och pengarna

Jetsetfolket kommer för övrigt i sandaler och shorts till de fina restauranger, eller in i raden av lyxbutiker i Gustavia, som får Biblioteksgatan i Stockholm att framstå som Ullared. Här bär man inga synliga märken på märkeskläderna. Den som vet, vet.

https://cornucopia.cornubot.se/2019/11/saint-barth-jetset-det-vackra-folket.html



Index smashes record highs but average stock in S&P 500 is 28% below its peak

 The gap between winners and losers since the pandemic struck has led some investors to describe the rebound as “K-shaped”, evoking a swift fall followed by a big divide in fortunes.

https://www.ft.com/content/680d9605-f112-4ea5-a5af-3b9138b5bf07



If we have to choose a letter for the economic recovery, maybe it should be a “K.”

Liechtenstein launches battle to reclaim confiscated WWII territory

 https://www.ft.com/content/f9b28161-fee7-49a4-8e1c-fb7496b8849c

2020-08-21

Covid-crippled property markets ring the alarm for banks

 Real estate sector is a victim of the virus, debt and technological change

The Bank for International Settlements, the central bankers’ bank, calculates that in the US, UK, continental Europe and Japan the Covid-19 shock has wiped out Reits’ cumulative valuation gains of the past five years. 

John Plender 21 August 2020

https://www.ft.com/content/aaf192ac-dc94-4509-8f24-5831a32e7aa2

U.S. stocks are near an all-time high, but the world still seems to be falling apart

 Any number of looming threats could bring the historic rally in U.S. equities to a screeching halt, top hedge fund and mutual fund managers said. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-20/money-managers-bracing-for-upheaval-with-stocks-near-record



Time Runs Out for Dollar Bulls. Is This Time Different? Nice clhart

 For the doomsayers, they finally herald the beginning of the end. It’s reminiscent of previous turning points in 1985 and 2002

Granted, die-hard bears have been sounding alarms about the dollar’s imminent demise for years now, only to be wrong time and again. Whether it’s inflation, America’s twin deficits or the Fed’s easy-money policies, fears over dollar debasement have done little to diminish its standing in the real world.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-20/time-runs-out-for-dollar-bulls-that-stretched-valuations-too-far


The FT's capital markets editor Katie Martin looks at the currency markets after the dollar suffered its worst month in July in 10 years

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIu67XBLfOE

2020-08-20

The Car That Nearly Killed BMW - BMW 507

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXB5Dw01_jA

How Trump appointees short-circuited U.S. grid modernization to help the coal industry

 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/08/how-trump-appointees-short-circuited-grid-modernization/615433/

The rapid collapse of the liberal democratic global order has left many of its former inhabitants in the West traumatized and politically homeless

 In hindsight, the scale of naïveté is staggering: 

the failure to anticipate the sudden mass movement of people from Eastern Europe after European Union enlargement in 2004 and the impact it might have on domestic politics; 

the shortcuts and political fixes built into the European single currency that would come home to roost after 2008; 

the failure to design a Marshall Plan for Russia after the Soviet Union’s collapse, or to anticipate Russia’s reaction to NATO’s expansion; 

the wars in the Middle East; and, of course, the great opening up to China and how that accelerated changes in the global economy.


https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/08/brexit-trump-china-90s-golden-era/615406/

A sudden and sharp correction for 10-year real yields

 


For investors, yield curve control is a big deal, so a hint that it isn’t going to happen didn’t go down well.


Today’s ultra-low interest rates are anything but ‘natural’

 There is nothing natural about the fall in rates that we have seen in much of the developed world since the 1980s. The US, for one, has seen rate cuts with each crisis since the stock market crash of October 1987.

Lotta Moberg FT 20 August 2020

https://www.ft.com/content/c4e10d2c-109a-40f5-a175-628d1db9c793

Three years ago, Claudio Borio and his colleagues at the Bank for International Settlements published a paper suggesting that over the longer term, movement in interest rates are rather connected to changes in monetary regimes, such as a shift from the gold standard, or toward inflation-targeting.

Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates

BIS Working Paper No. 685

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3090799


2020-08-19

Between 1930 and 1932, in the middle of the Great Depression, Brüning cut spending, increased taxes and rolled back the social safety net.

 https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/08/fiscal-austerity-and-the-rise-of-the-nazis.html


https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2012/02/dont-mention-war-men-kom-ihag-bruning.html



Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2 trillion market cap

 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/apple-reaches-2-trillion-market-cap.html

California - Warning of rolling blackouts for millions as heatwave overwhelms grid

The drawbacks of solar power have been evident in the past week as temperatures soared daily above 100 degrees Fahrenheit and air-conditioner use leapt in the late afternoon and early evening — just as the sun set.

FT 19 August 2020

https://www.ft.com/content/27f4c697-8698-42be-b91d-9d7c8def3031


Average inflation targeting

Average inflation targeting would mean the Fed aiming to return the average of inflation over some period, rather than getting inflation to 2% over the medium term.

It implies the Fed allowing inflation to run hot to make up for past periods undershooting the target.

Any clues from the July minutes as to its likelihood and any insights on what it would take for the Fed to initiate yield curve control could see dollar losses extend,” 








“A Certain Idea of France: The Life of De Gaulle” Boris Johnson

Few would begrudge Boris his break: he has lived a lifetime in the past year, having got divorced and remarried, had another child, almost died of covid-19 and struggled with the worst crisis since the second world war.

But Bagehot would nevertheless suggest adding a fourth book to his pile—Julian Jackson’s “A Certain Idea of France: The Life of De Gaulle”. 

De Gaulle regarded national pride as the only cure for national suicide. Mr Johnson has the same life-preserving instincts. He likes to think that he speaks for Middle England. He identifies Britain with “greatness” as naturally as the general identified France with “grandeur”. 

https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/08/15/what-boris-could-learn-from-de-gaulle

Welcome to the 'everything rally' FT Youtube

 When the downturn comes there will be no place to hide.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOT064ngTJQ



2020-08-18

Cecilia Malmström i Omstartskommissonen fördragsändringar inom EU

 Det rimliga i framtidens EU vore att gå över till fler majoritetsbeslut inom delar av utrikespolitiken eller laborera med olika typer av konstruktivt veto, det vill säga att ett land kan motsätta sig och göra det känt men inte blockera ett beslut om det finns majoritet. 

Detta är dock ett stort steg att ta och kräver fördragsändringar för vilka det finns stort motstånd – inte minst eftersom vissa länder då måste hålla folkomröstning.




Spaniens statsskuld lyfte till en ny rekordnivå på 1 290 miljarder euro i juni

Vid utgången av första kvartalet låg den spanska statsskulden på strax under 100 procent av BNP.

Enligt den spanska regeringen kommer Spaniens skuld som andel av BNP att uppgå till 115,5 procent vid årsskiftet, men Spaniens centralbank befarar att det utifrån den statistik som nu kommit fram kan sluta med en statsskuld på 127 procent av BNP.


 TT/SvD 18 augusti 2020

Vacker bild på Madrid




Sveriges statsskick och EU:s återhämtningsplan

 EU rör sig mot federalism. Upplåningen har inte stöd i fördragen. 

Möjligen ska man se det som ett mellanstatligt avtal.

 Men det väsentliga är att parlamentens godkännande är avgörande för att överenskommelsen i upplåningsfrågan skall kunna gälla. 

GUNILLA EDELSTAM Det Goda Samhället 15 augusti 2020




Is it back to a 1970s future of stagflation?

 Jeremy Warner 18 August 2020

Monetarism has a little bit of a voodoo reputation these days; those who make predictions off the back of money growth tend to be regarded as little better than people who take their instruction from movements in the stars, or read the tea leaves to know the future. 

Keynesian thinking is instead fully back in the saddle.

The central bank printing press continues whirring with almost equal enthusiasm in the UK, the Eurozone and Japan.

----

Talk of resurgent global inflation is mostly noise. Powerful deflationary winds continue to blow through the world economy. 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard same day

The great financial crisis of 2007-8 still leaves questions to which no wholly satisfactory answers have been offered.

 If it is unfathomable that anybody would manage so badly as to lose more than $50bn as he suggests Merrill Lynch did in 2008, then what is the explanation? 

His answer is that the fault lay in “absent management” compounded by flawed incentive structures.

John Plender 17 August 2020



Königsberg, the birthplace of Immanuel Kant

 Her book is part of a growing body of work devoted to the experience of the Vertriebene, the estimated 12m people who fled Germany’s eastern regions as the Red Army advanced. 

FT 18 August 2020



2020-08-17

Tsikhanouskaya calls on security forces to switch allegiance

 https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-tsikhanouskaya-calls-on-security-forces-to-switch-allegiance/a-54592262


Läget på Östfronten. Rapport från Oberkommando der Weltmacht


Everything is going to be repriced

If we have to choose a letter for the economic recovery, maybe it should be a “K.”

George Friedman has written a book called, "The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond."

 We have two major cycles coming into play at the same time in this decade. One I have written about on numerous occasions: The End of the Fourth Turning. 

John Mauldin 14 August 2020

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-second-great-depression-but-not-really


Vilken bokstav kommer att beskriva återhämtningen efter Coronan? Jag tror det blir bokstaven R, en krokig bana som löper av och an  och upp och ner.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/04/tobins-q-och-englunds-r.html



2020-08-16

Läget på Östfronten. Rapport från Oberkommando der Weltmacht

 Först en erinran om den politiska bakgrunden för vår arbete. EU är en organisation som bygger på rättsstatens principer och allt som görs har demokratisk legitimitet. Så även vår strävan att bli en världsmakt jämbördig med USA och Kina.

Basen utgörs av Det östliga partnerskapet som syftar till att stärka den politiska associeringen och den ekonomiska integrationen av sex partnerländer i Östeuropa och Sydkaukasien: Armenien, Azerbajdzjan, Belarus, Georgien, Moldavien, Ukraina och  Armenien.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/sv/policies/eastern-partnership/

EU har självfallet ingen säkerhetstjänst. Däremot har vi Europeiska utrikestjänsten.

https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/institutions-bodies/eeas_sv

Nyheterna från östfronten har tidigare mest handlat om motgångar. Men nu har det vänt. 

I norr har vi Finland som i enlighet med sina stolta traditioner är en värdefull kraft.

Dess grannland Sverige kan i enlighet med sina mindre stolta traditioner antas lämna värdefulla bidrag, i alla fall så länge som vi förväntas ha fortsatta framgångar.

Estland, Lettland och Litauen har redan införlivats i Unionen, liksom Polen, Tjeckien, Ungen, Bulgarien och Rumänien inom Centraleuropa.

Kontroll av oljefyndigheterna runt Baku har länge varit omtvistat men läget där är  nu säkrat. Den självständiga staten Azerbaijan har vårt fulla stöd,

 


Azerbaijan in World War II From Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan_in_World_War_II


Bröderna Nobel tjänade stora pengar i Baku

https://www.nyteknik.se/popularteknik/broderna-nobel-i-baku-6345114

Staden Volgograd, mera känd under sitt tidigare namn, ligger inte långt österut från Ukraina.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stalingrad

Läget i Ukraina är komplicerat. Kanske kommer dock valet av Joseph Biden att medföra en förbättring. Både han och hans son har där goda förbindelser.

Det vi helst kallar revolutionen därstädes var en viktig händelse.

2014 Ukrainian revolution  From Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution

Dock finns det på internet dunkla krafter, t ex BBC, som vill utså tvivel om denna ärorika revolution.

BBC: What happened in Kiev's Maidan square?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-31433363/ukraine-conflict-what-happened-in-kiev-s-maidan-square

Sverige har gjort betydande insatser för det som ingalunda är någon inblandning i andra länder inre angelägenheter. Vi kallar det för Demokratibistånd, den nya huvudlinjen i landets relationer med omvärlden.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/analys-utriokespolitiken-tar-ett-kliv-mot-mitten

Regeringen har beslutat att förlänga strategin för särskilt demokratistöd genom svenska partiers biståndsorganisationer. Beslutet innebär att biståndsstrategin nu gäller fram till 31 december 2022.

https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2020/05/forlangning-av-strategin-for-sarskilt-demokratistod-genom-svenska-partianknutna-organisationer/

Många ställer frågan om hur långt EU skall utvidgas österut. Därom har vi som tjänstemän ingen åsikt. Dock har en av de politiskt ansvariga lämnat detta svar.

Var tycker du att EU:s gräns bör gå?

– Där vi tycker att det passar för tillfället. Jag ser framför mig att Ukraina borde vara med, men inte i morgon. Alla länder som ingår i det Östliga partnerskapet är potentiella medlemmar i framtiden beroende på hur de utvecklas.

Gunnar Hökmark

https://www.europaportalen.se/2014/05/moderat-eurovan-vill-utvidga-unionen

----

Belarus oppositionsledare Svetlana Tichanovskaja säger att hon står redo att leda landet och uppmanar till åtgärder för att bana väg för ett nytt, fritt val.

– Jag hade inga planer på att bli politiker. Men ödet placerade mig vid frontlinjen, säger hon i ett videotal.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/snabbkollen/belarus-opposition-redo-ta-over



2020-08-15

Pompeo signs deal to redeploy troops from Germany to Poland

About 4,500 US troops are currently stationed in Poland and another 1,000 will be added under the new pact. 

The headquarters of the US Army V Corps will also be relocated from Germany to Poland.

BBC 15 August 2020

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._303_Squadron_RAF






Den gamla svenska kolonin Saint-Barthélemy

 är ett exklusivt turist- och skatteparadis i Västindien. En tummelplats för internationella jetsettare som Beyoncé, Mariah Carey, Paul McCartney och Leonardo DiCaprio.

Kung Gustav III sökte kolonier för Sverige och 1784 lyckades han få den franska ön Saint-Barthélemy i utbyte mot att Frankrike fick handelsrättigheter i Göteborg.

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/slavhandeln-i-svenska-kolonin-hon-kraver-ursakt-av-kungen-/



2020-08-14

A webinar panel discussion, moderated by Gillian Tett

 Europe’s Hamiltonian Moment...or the Beginning of the End? 

New Economic Thinking 17 June 2020

Youtube

Gillian Tett - en av mina Gurus

Tett’s past roles at the FT have included US managing editor, assistant editor, capital markets editor, deputy editor of the Lex column, Tokyo bureau chief, and a reporter in Russia and Brussels.








Monetary aggregates are back in fashion

Monetary aggregates, used by the Bank of England and the Bundesbank in the postwar period as bellwether of price pressures but largely ignored in recent decades, are back in fashion

Money matters, but it is not everything — setting policy on the basis of aggregates proved tricky and they were less reliable indicators of inflation than hoped.

Deflation remains the greater threat right now. But...

FT Editorial 14 August 2020


The stock market hasn’t seen a 100-day gain this strong since 1933

Thursday marked the 100th trading day since the stock market’s pandemic panic low on March 23 — and by one measure the subsequent rebound is the strongest in nearly 90 years.

Both the current rally and the 1933 rebound follow historically steep selloffs that accompanied global cataclysms.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-hasnt-made-a-move-this-big-since-1933-11597337248




South Africa’s fate hangs in the balance.

 It’s either heading on a long, hard road to recovery, or the risk is of economic collapse. 

Bloomberg 12 August 2020

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/storythreads/2020-07-24/south-africa-news-economic-downturn-and-how-long-it-may-last







2020-08-13

A sell signal is flashing on Buffett’s favorite indicator

 The “Buffett Indicator,” is simply the total market cap of all U.S. stocks relative to the country’s GDP. 

When it’s in the 70% to 80% range, it’s time to throw cash at the market. When it moves above 100%, it’s time to lean toward risk-off.

Global stock mkts now more than 100% of global GDP for the 1st time since 2018

MarketWatch Aug. 12, 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-said-this-metric-signaled-the-2001-crash-now-its-sounding-the-alarm-on-stocks-around-the-world-2020-08-12



  

2020-08-12

The pandemic has not caused the kind of societal breakdown

 that many of the preppers in Bradley Garrett’s new book Bunker: Building for the End Times are readying themselves for. 

But who is to know how close we came. 

If the mortality rate of Covid-19 were higher, or its effect on children a little worse, how many key workers — the delivery drivers, the supermarket staff, the nurses and doctors who kept society functioning — would still have turned up for work? 

FT 12 August 2020

https://www.ft.com/content/cf7cbca8-9d88-4f58-87b1-e4a51878ccb3


2020-08-11

John Maynard Keynes owes some of his central insights to Frank Ramsey a brilliant Cambridge polymath who died in 1930 at age 26

The implication is that a decentralized capitalist economy can fall short of employing all available resources, creating the need for the state to step in and “stabilize an unstable economy,” as the economist Hyman Minsky once put it.

Now, new biographies of each man have been published

In The General Theory, Keynes identifies the fundamental error of Say’s Law, which holds that supply creates its own demand, such that in equilibrium all resources must be fully employed. 

Because savings decisions and investment decisions are not made by the same people, they cannot be automatically equated. 

William H. Janeway Project Syndicate Aug 7, 2020

https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/review-frank-ramsey-keynes-price-of-peace-by-william-h-janeway-2020-08


Grundbultsfrågan: Hur blir S = I ??? Savings and investment, being different activities carried on by different people





Winston Churchill described it as the worst decision he had ever made

 Reimposition of the gold standard after the First World War at the old rate originally set in 1717 of three pounds, seventeen shillings and ten pence, was a total disaster for Britain, as later acknowledged by Winston Churchill, then Chancellor, who described it as the worst decision he had ever made.

Jeremy Warner 11 August 2020


Churchill was appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1924 under Stanley Baldwin and oversaw Britain's disastrous return to the Gold Standard, which resulted in deflation, unemployment, and the miners' strike that led to the General Strike of 1926.

https://www.internetional.se/econusabub.htm#worst

Englands beslut att lämna guldmyntfoten 1931 framkallades av att det rådde myteri inom Royal Navy, ett myteri framkallat av de lönesänkningar som regeringen beslutat om.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2013/10/hur-det-kom-sig-att-england-overgav.html








The Absurd, Totally Misleading US Unemployment Report

 In July, the unemployment rate declined by 0.9 percentage point to 10.2 percent, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.4 million to 16.3 million.

This number will be breathlessly reported in all the media but let’s look at reality on the ground.

First, Mike Shedlock offers this chart from yesterday’s continued unemployment claims.

John Mauldin 7 August 2020



2020-08-10

Are parts of India becoming too hot for humans?

 India's situation is not unique. Many places around the world have endured heat waves so far this year, including parts of Spain, China, Nepal and Zimbabwe.

CNN July 4, 2019

Today, 1% of the world is a barely livable hot zone.

By 2070, that portion could go up to 19%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/23/magazine/climate-migration.html

US faces inflation threat as money supply rockets

 Nice chart

Robin Wigglesworth FT 10 August 2020


2020-08-09

Att lära sig dö i antropocen - reflektioner över en civilisations slut

We're Doomed. Now What? 

Book by Roy Scranton

https://www.bokus.com/cgi-bin/product_search.cgi?authors=Roy%20Scranton

https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/12/21/were-doomed-now-what/


Central bankers have spent years warning of the perils of excess corporate debt. But

But their solution to this year’s coronavirus storm in financial markets has led to even more of it

The mounting debt burden of businesses curtails policymakers’ room to raise interest rates, for fear of dramatically increasing refinancing costs. .

FT 8 August 2020

Another Rubicon crossed: a 10-year junk bond below 3%

FT 10 August 2020

Nice Chart


 

2020-08-07

MESSERSCHMITT BF-110

 https://amp.welt.de/geschichte/zweiter-weltkrieg/article212822167/Messerschmitt-Bf-110-Der-Superjaeger-der-voellig-versagte.html?fbclid=IwAR1jxVSSmRCXyKlxImb-XtPKuYciPDV9jq6i2P7MJYIheNx9HZtag2IrRPk

Boom and Bust is a global history of financial bubbles

 https://www.boomandbust.co.uk/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-investors-should-do-if-they-think-the-stock-market-is-in-a-bubble-according-to-the-folks-who-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-11596818858

About bubbles on my site



Concerns start to grow among analysts over the longer-term inflation outlook

Investors say negative real yields are driving the ‘everything rally’

Tommy Stubbington and Robin Wigglesworth FT 7 August 2020



Det är kört. Så kan man helt kort sammanfatta Jonathan Jeppssons bok ”Åtta steg mot avgrunden”.

 2050 kommer lika mycket energi att användas till världens luftkonditionering som hela Kina använder i dag för att producera all sin elektricitet”

Några hållbara lösningar för detta ständigt ökande energibehov kan han inte heller se. Även storskaliga satsningar på kärnkraft är i realiteten för sent. Dessutom görs de inte.

------

Boken förskönar inte direkt vår framtid här på jorden och ämnar att få folk att "se sanningen i vitögat". Något som kan uppfattas både hårt och brutalt.

Studio ett 6 augusti 2020


https://www.bokus.com/bok/9789177750871/atta-steg-mot-avgrunden-vart-framtida-liv-pa-planeten/


 




Paris is facing one of its worst heat waves in more than a century

with daily average temperatures hovering around 30 degrees Celsius

“Other than 2003, the capital therefore begins its most dreadfully hot week since 1873,”

Bloomberg 7 August 2020


2020 has seen the third consecutive summer in which the temperature in the UK has exceeded 35C

BBC 7 August 2020


2020-08-06

The Economic Consequences of Mr Sunak

Ending the Government's furlough scheme will go down as one of the biggest policy mistakes in modern British history

Britain is heading for an unemployment crisis of Biblical proportions by the end of the year unless the Treasury's policy is torn up very soon.

While Germany, France, and Australia, among others, are extending support measures into next year, the Treasury offers us the £10 Eat Out scheme

Mr Sunak has his own problems with the Treasury, an institution still in thrall to the austerity doctrines that brought us the "expansionary fiscal contraction" 

“They have committed a conceptual error,” said Bernard Connolly, doyen of British Wicksellians.  




Kronan skvalpar - det är bra.

Dollarn sjunker. Inte bra (för exportindustrin).
Euron stiger Bra (för exportindustrin).



Det är bra att ha rörlig växelkurs.

Det vore dåligt att ha euron.



Solidarity with the Germans

During the worst clashes between the Greek and German governments amid the euro crisis, a German official attempted to dissuade me from insisting on debt relief for Greece with the argument that Germany may be rich, but a majority of its people are poor. 

On this last point, he was right.

During the last two decades, the real disposable income of the poorest 50% has been falling 

The solidarity of German workers, toward whom no one shows any solidarity, has its limits – as it should.

I have just described the fatal divisiveness that has been baked into Next Generation EU.

As I have written elsewhere, it is almost as if the whole thing were designed by a cunning Eurosceptic.



Tyskland lyckades genomföra vad ekonomerna kallar en interndevalvering.
Hur kunde då Tyskland lyckas med det som i dag framstår som omöjligt för länderna i Sydeuropa?

The Hartz IV reforms – so widely praised as the foundation of German competitiveness, and now being foisted on southern Europe – did not raise productivity
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 8 Oct 2014

The legacy of Hartz IV is a lumpen-proletariat of 7.4m people on “mini-jobs”, part-time work that is tax-free up to €450. This flatters the jobless rate, but Germany has become a split society, more unequal than at any time in its modern history. A fifth of German children are raised in poverty.




Google parent Alphabet locks in record-low borrowing costs in $10bn deal

Having initially focused on shoring up their balance sheets to endure the current economic downturn, companies are now beginning to opportunistically refinance debt, or even bring forward scheduled bond issuance due to the low cost of borrowing.



Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken.

Det skrev jag på min blogg första gången den 5 december 2009


Kan man undvika recession i USA?

Jag vill fästa uppmärksamheten på årtalen 1982 och 1992 i Klas första diagram över det amerikanska handelsunderskottet. Det visar att dessa märkesår i svensk ekonomisk politik var de enda år som USA hade balans i sin utrikeshandel.




2020-08-04

Perhaps the deflationary forces that have led to the trend declines in nominal and real interest rates over recent decades may abate and even reverse in the future.

One of us is writing a book on The Great Demographic Reversal (Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2020), forthcoming soon, to argue that this will happen.

But if not, how can we square the inconsistent objectives of maintaining interest rates low enough to maintain macroeconomic equilibrium without at the same time encouraging debt accumulation, fragile financial markets and an inefficient allocation of resources? 

This is a question we need a good answer to.





Argentina's unprecedented economic boom-to-bust history

"Rich as an Argentine" was once a common phrase, back when the South American nation was one of the wealthiest in the world. 

Today, it faces bankruptcy and staggering debt in a saga it can't seem to escape.

Deutsche Welle 4 August 2020


2020-08-03

Tourism’s collapse could trigger next stage of the crisis

The economic impact will stretch well beyond the travel industry


Buoyant equity markets have lulled leaders in Europe and America into a false sense of security.

This is what happened during the stock market rally in 1930, in 1937, and again in 1981. 
On each occasion the authorities pulled the rug away too soon.

Ample liquidity is not the same as fundamental solvency.




Could the principles of Modern Monetary Theory show us a way out of the current economic crisis?

Video with Stephanie Kelton

BBC REEL 29 June 2020

2020-08-01

In June this year, a company called intu collapsed.

It was the owner of many of the UK's biggest shopping centres.

Long before the pandemic struck, the retail sector was in trouble. 




Robert Shiller - En av mina Gurus

“We have highly priced markets in the stock market, the bond market and the housing market,” 
“All of these markets could tumble in the coming months.”

Robert Shiller, Nobel Prize winning economist at Yale University, 





Air travel’s sudden collapse will reshape a trillion-dollar industry

The Economist 1 August 2020