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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in July grew to the biggest gap in 16 months in July, as America imported more electronics to feed the country’s artificial intelligence boom. The monthly trade deficit, the gap between what the United States imports and what it exports, hit $88.6 billion in the month. New York Times 3 September 2026 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/business/economy/us-trade-defecit-july.html International Trade in Goods and Services BEA https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services Mortgage rates /Bolåneräntan/ ticked up to a new high for the year, casting a chill over the US housing market. The 30-year mortgage rate jumped 5 basis points to an average of 6.71% https://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-mortgage-rates-are-already-here-some-buyers-mortgage-experts-say-c51a7e04 Nvidia Agrees to Buy AI Platform Hugging Face for $13 Billion Deal ramps up Nvidia’s efforts to promote open-weight AI models that pose competitive t...

Chipfrossan förvärrades under fredagen. Halvledarsektorn gör därmed sin sämsta vecka på över ett år.  S&P 500 backade 1 procent, Dow Jones 0,8 procent och Nasdaq handlades ned 1,4 procent. ”Frågan nu är om detta kommer att bli ännu ett tillfälle att ’köpa dippen’, eller om försäljningstakten accelererar när alla samtidigt rusar mot utgångarna”, säger David Morrison. https://www.di.se/live/usa-stanger-pa-rott/ Vändpunkten 31 mars 2026 "Snart blir det fred" https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/vandpunkten-31-mars-2026.html Merz, Macron plan closer nuclear cooperation Germany is expected to soon take part in a nuclear drill with France, Germany's Merz said after meeting France's Macron.  Deutsche Welle 17 jui 2026 https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-merz-macron-plan-closer-nuclear-cooperation/live-77998510 The U.S. and Iran Creep Toward a Wider War With Escalating Attacks. Strikes on more sensitive targets across the Persian Gulf risk setting off a spiral as neit...

  En expert säger att bostadsmarknaden är den bästa illustrationen av den “K-formade ekonomin” som vi befinner oss i just nu. Rekordhöga bostadspriser och stigande bolåneräntor skapar frustration både hos köpare och säljare på stora delar av den amerikanska bostadsmarknaden – men i den övre delen av fastighetsmarknaden ser bilden helt annorlunda ut. Förmögna köpare, som är relativt okänsliga för dagens höga ränteläge, står bakom en livlig försäljning av lyxbostäder.  Den senaste statistiken från bostadsmarknaden pekar på en växande klyfta mellan vanliga amerikanska bostadsköpare och deras rikare motsvarigheter, som till stor del är oberörda av problemen med minskad förmåga att betala dagens bostadspriser.   Ulf Kristersson: Två vanliga löner ska räcka för att köpa och bo i ett hus https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/ulf-kristersson-tva-vanliga-loner-ska.html https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/villasuget-okar-saljs-fler-an-under-pandemin/ Rich home buyers are powering the hou...

  A Birkin bag on display in Germany. Photographer: Yen Duong/Bloomberg The Hermes resale market has contributed to the bursting of the Birkin bubble, with some Birkin and Kelly bags changing hands for less than a few years ago. Hermes can seize back the narrative by introducing its own authorized resale program, enabling it to exert greater control over its leather goods on the secondary market. You can’t buy Hermes’ most desirable bags — the Kelly, Birkin and Constance — in a store.  Because demand typically outstrips supply, customers must instead join a waitlist. Consequently, used models that are immediately available in the resale market typically cost more than their new counterparts. An authorized resale program, similar to Rolex's "Certified Pre-Owned" program, could help Hermes crack down on "flippers"  who secure a bag by getting to the top of the Hermes wait list — only to immediately sell it on for a profit. Andrea Felsted Bloomberg May 1, 2026 http...

San Francisco’s median house price jumped to a record $2.15 million in March, up 18% from a year earlier. Condo prices surged, rising 27% to $1.36 million, according to brokerage Compass Inc. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-06/san-francisco-house-prices-hit-record-2-15-million-on-ai-boom USA-hus; median price record high $414,400, cirka 3,8 mkr The median price of an existing house reached a record high of $414,400 in 2025, with typical home values increasing nearly 50% from 2019 to 2025. USA-hus; median price record high $414,400, cirka 3,8 mkr

Last year, the value of the luxury resale market hit 50 billion euros, equivalent to $59 billions.  The resale business is growing faster than the primary market. The RealReal https://www.therealreal.com/ The problem is the thousands of small resellers popping up every year. Luxury goods are being resold by livestream on social-media platforms, through Shopify accounts. Handbags, one of the most lucrative products for luxury brands, are particularly exposed to the shift.  Young Gen Z consumers are now making nearly half of their bag purchases at secondhand retailers. Rolex could provide a template. The watch brand’s certified preowned program did more than $500 million in sales last year. Wall Street Journal 24 February 2026 https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/the-luxury-resale-market-is-booming-brands-are-struggling-to-cash-in-e614ed4d There is an abundance of fake Birkin bags, for example, which can now be bought at Walmart. Birkin: The Bag, the Woman, the Myth. Ms. Birkin, ...

Index för kärninflationen, core PCE, steg 3,0 procent jämfört med samma månad året innan. DI 20 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/live/hogre-inflation-och-lagre-bnp-tillvaxt-an-vantat-i-usa/  Policymakers could leave their 2% target in place formally, but be all right with never quite getting there. And then some years down the line, they could adopt a higher target. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/inflationsmalet-overges-i-tysthet.html Most can’t afford to buy a home. Consumers are downright gloomy about their finances nowadays, for one key reason: Most can’t afford to buy a home. A study published in January in the journal Economics Letters links consumer malaise in large part to the high cost of housing — which the Consumer Price Index undercounts. Entitled “The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly,” The study was conducted by a group of researchers from Harvard University and the International Monetary Fund. They wr...

I december 2024 fick amerikanen Richard Z Wimmel ett brev från sitt försäkringsbolag. Budskapet: hans hus, i en branddrabbad del av Kalifornien, går inte att försäkra längre. Riskerna är för stora. Och han är inte ensam. I New York Times, som skildrat Richard Z Wimmels öde, rapporterades i december förra året att 1,9 miljoner amerikaner fått sina försäkringar uppsagda. När förra vinterns omfattande bränder slog till i Kalifornien stod tusentals drabbade oförsäkrade. Nu varnar Finansinspektionen för att Sverige står för liknande risker, om än i betydligt mindre omfattning. Särskilt bostäder i områden med stor risk för översvämning ligger i farozonen. Bilden är från översvämningar i Gävle 2021, en av de kostsammaste händelserna  för försäkringsbolagen någonsin. Foto: Fredrik Sandberg/TT DN 9 februari 2026 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/maste-hoja-premierna-sa-slar-klimatkrisen-mot-din-forsakring/ Florida’s housing market in an era of increasingly destructive climate disasters https://engl...

The median price of an existing house reached a record high of $414,400 in 2025, with typical home values increasing nearly 50% from 2019 to 2025. Family incomes have risen 30% since 2020, while median home prices have increased 54% in the same period, Buying a house in the U.S. has become so unaffordable that the median age of a first-time buyer is now a record 40. Aarthi Swaminathan MarketWatch  Jan. 20, 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/homeownership-has-never-seemed-so-out-of-reach-will-trumps-davos-speech-offer-new-hope-af5d1742 Americans’ wealth is the result in part of a soaring stock market (up more than sevenfold from the bottom in 2009) and increasing real estate values (up 125% since 2009). https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-era-of-illiquid-millionaire.html US May Be Resting on a Risky Wealth-Effect Foundation https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/us-may-be-resting-on-risky-wealth.html The wealthiest 10% of American households—those making more than $...

Prices for U.S. condominiums posted their biggest annual decline since 2012 earlier last year.  Single-family home prices have also slowed, but they are still up from the year-ago levels. The Florida condo market has taken a major hit since the Surfside collapse, partly due to new state requirements to make sure older buildings are structurally sound. WSJ 1 January 2026 https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-condo-market-hasnt-been-this-bad-in-over-a-decade-9f3e7256 Buildings in Florida are sinking https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/buildings-in-florida-are-sinking.html

  Någon uppenbar orsak till tisdagens rörelser finns inte.  Och med tanke på Pensionsmyndighetens årliga insättning till PPM-systemet – som i december brukar leda till ett behov av att växla svensk valuta till utländsk när pengarna ska vidare till fonder i andra länder – är de senaste två veckornas kronförstärkning till och med lite märklig. Viktor Munkhammar DI 9 december 2025 https://www.di.se/analys/tomterally-for-svenska-kronan/ RE: Kanske är det generande enkelt? Svag krona, dåligt för folket, bra för börsen och bonusarna. Stark krona, bra för folket, dåligt för börsen och bonusarna. Stockholmsbörsen vände nedåt – stängde på rött https://www.di.se/live/stockholmsborsen-vande-nedat-stangde-pa-rott/ Indexen stänger åt olika håll i USA dagen innan Feds räntebesked.  Före jul, men innan tomten kommer. https://www.di.se/live/spretig-pa-wall-street-infor-fed-besked/ Bolån i USA: 6.36% i 30 år. The 30-year mortgage rate increased by nine basis points to 6.36% on Monday, rea...

We live in a golden age of magical thinking I’m not just talking about the trillions of dollars being burned on artificial intelligence.  When it comes to our rapidly heating planet and its effects on our future, too many of us have adopted a strategy of simply ignoring reality to make it go away. Consider the news that listings on the real estate site Zillow will no longer include climate-risk ratings from the private data firm First Street.  The ratings scored each home on its likelihood of being affected by wildfires, floods, high winds, extreme heat and air pollution.  “Displaying the probability of a specific home flooding this year or within the next five years can have a significant impact on the perceived desirability of that property,” Art Carter, chief executive officer of the California Regional Multiple Listing Service, a private database for real estate brokers and agents, told the Times. Well, yeah. And maybe it should?  As reported by the New York Time...

It would take a -38% drop in home prices  OR a +60% JUMP in household income  JUST for affordability to go back to 2019 levels https://www.reddit.com/r/EconomyCharts/comments/1nqyw2u/an_affordability_nightmare_it_would_take_a_38/ Almost one-fifth of US households have a net worth of more than $1 million, with one-third of them gaining that status since 2017. Most of that wealth is on paper, due to a soaring stock market and increasing real estate values, making America enter the Era of the Illiquid Millionaire. This illiquidity is partly due to retirement accounts and housing, which are encouraged by policy choices, but can make Americans feel richer than they are and increase vulnerability to economic shocks. Americans’ wealth is the result in part of a soaring stock market (up more than sevenfold from the bottom in 2009) and increasing real estate values (up 125% since 2009). Selling a home involves substantial transaction costs, and people who sell their house have to find ...

  The beloved 26-story office tower that defines Providence’s skyline has been empty since Bank of America pulled out in 2013. Many cities whose skylines took shape in the early and mid-20th century have them: the Chrysler Building in New York; Times Mirror Square in Los Angeles; Renaissance Center in Detroit; the LaSalle Street corridor in Chicago. Wall Street Journal 6 October 2025 https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/office-buildings-empty-conversion-16cf3a62 The 42-story Portland’s tower was put up for sale. More than 80% below what the owners paid for it a decade ago. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-42-story-portlands-tower-was-put-up.html Inside the Death Spiral of San Francisco’s Most Storied Mall San Francisco Centre, once among Bay Area’s top-performing retail centers, is bleeding millions of dollars a year. https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/san-francisco-centre-falling-value-93e50970

American consumer spending continued to be resilient in the face of President Donald Trump’s steep tariff increases. That this would have been the case in late summer 2025 was unexpected by many at the start of the year.  The S&P 500 Index has handed investors a 15%-plus total return so far this year, bonds are up and home values are higher compared with 2024.  All in, Goldman Sachs economist Manuel Abecasis tallies that household net worth has increased to more than 800% of disposable (i.e. after-tax) income, near a record high. As wealth has gone up, Americans’ savings rates have come down. In August, it was 4.6% “This suggests that wealth effects are driving spending,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, an economic policy research group, wrote in a note last week. The flip side of that, Holtz-Eakin cautions: “One of the real risks to the outlook is the pricing in equity markets.” Anatole Kaletsky, chief economist and co-founder of Gavekal, goes...

  Over breakfast at Manhattan’s Peninsula Hotel 11 years ago this month, the nattily dressed Chinese businessman got straight to the point. He wanted to buy the legendary Waldorf Astoria hotel. So began the strange saga of what may be the most complicated and likely the most expensive real estate conversion ever attempted in the U.S.  Along the way, Wu landed in prison and the Chinese government took over the property.  Wu, who was married to a granddaughter of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, had founded Anbang Insurance Group in 2004 as a regional auto insurance firm.  Wall Street Journal 21 September 2025 https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/waldorf-astoria-makeover-china-aa24f5d2 Deng Xiaoping visited Singapore in November 1978 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/deng-xiaoping-ran-china-despite-having.html Köper Waldorf Astoria för att göra om det till bostadsrätter https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/koper-waldorf-astoria-for-att-gora-om.html In 2017,...

High-earners and older Americans are faring better than ever, while fortunes are sliding again for low-wage and young workers There are two economies in the U.S. right now, and they are moving in different directions. For high earners and many older Americans, the economy looks robust. They are still spending like gangbusters, and their 401(k) accounts and homes have soared in value.   They nabbed 3% mortgages when rates were low.  Wall Street Journal Sept. 16, 2025 https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-economy-analysis-wealthy-low-income-8ba80ccc The wealthiest 10% of American households—those making more than $250,000 a year, roughly—are now responsible for half of all US consumer spending and at least a third of the country’s gross domestic product.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/who-exactly-is-buying-all-of-this-stuff.html

 

High home prices and interest rates didn’t deter these three sets of first-time home buyers Home prices are the highest on record, so most would-be first-timers are sitting on the sidelines and waiting for an opportunity.  Last year, the share of buyers who were first-timers fell to a record low of 24%. Back in 1995, 42% of home buyers were first-timers. Successful first-time buyers are now older, with a median age of 38, 10 years older than in the 1980s.  She closed on the house in March for $305,000, with a 10% down payment and a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.45%. Aarthi Swaminathan MarketWatch Aug. 23, 2025 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-can-actually-buy-a-house-today-meet-the-elite-buyers-achieving-the-american-dream-a9151846 Ekonomiprofessorn: "Riksbanken borde sänka räntan" https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/ekonomiprofessorn-riksbanken-borde.html US Home Prices Hit Record High $435,300 Americans Have $35 Trillion in Housing Wealth https://englundmacro.blogsp...

Many financial experts measure it by net worth instead,  as a person’s assets and debts often have a greater impact on their long-term financial security and financial freedom than income alone .  MarketWatch 19 August 2025 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/america-has-5-wealth-classes-see-where-you-fit-in-and-how-much-it-takes-to-reach-the-upper-echelons-25151801 US Home Prices Hit Record High $435,300 Americans Have $35 Trillion in Housing Wealth https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/us-home-prices-hit-record-high-435300.html Whether or not consumers continue to spend comes down to home ownership, according to Whitney, who said homeowners increasingly began to tap into their home equity a little over a year ago, reversing a 17-year cycle of declining equity-home loans. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/meredith-whitney-famously-called-2008.html