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med såväl kraftigt vinstlyft som sänkt styrränta. Tyvärr har det varit en osannolik kombination.  Börjar det barka nedåt blir det trångt i dörren.  Då blir börsens ”zebror” snabbt uppätna.  Förvaltarna kan få sparken och zebrorna bli uppätna av lejon. Bägge rör sig i flock och nyckeln är därför var de ska stå i relation till de andra.  I säkra tider käkar de aggressiva zebrorna i utkanten av flocken bäst medan de som trängs i mitten får halvt uppätet och nedtrampat gräs.  Men en dag kommer lejonen och zebrorna i utkanten slutar som lejonlunch. De spinkiga i mitten har visserligen ätit sämre, men de lever fortfarande.”   zebrorna inför 2025 extremt tätt packade i mitten av flocken.  alla 18 strateger tror på stigande bolagsvinster 2025. Hela 15 av dem spår ökningar i det snäva intervallet av 10–14 procent.  sedan 2000, har strategerna som grupp alltid förutspått att börsen ska stiga.  Mikael Vilenius DI 17 december 2024 https://www.di.se/...

  Buffett stock sales indicate now is not a great time to have a lot of equity exposure The S&P 500 index actually fell on Tuesday, but still managed to close at its second-best level in history. David Einhorn, the hedge-fund star who co-founded Greenlight Capital, isn’t thriving as the bull market turns three years of age. The Greenlight letter says it is by many measures the most expensive stock market since the founding of the firm, which was in 1996.   The firm points out that Warren Buffett has been among the best market timers the world has ever seen — closing a fund in the late 1960s, re-emerging near the market bottom in the early 1970s, selling many holdings ahead of the 1987 crash, capitalizing on the 2008 global financial crisis — and now has been in a selling mode. The Greenlight letter points out it’s not just technology stocks with “nosebleed valuations” — pointing to mature, industrial businesses that trade for 30 to 50 times earnings.  Steve Goldstein ...

is the old adage attributed, probably incorrectly, to the famed economist John Maynard Keynes While he doesn’t say the market is in a bubble — a noun he seldom uses — Asness says pretty much any measure finds the valuation ratio of expensive stocks to cheap stocks is historically high. He gives three reasons why markets are less rational.  Two factors, he says, probably have a small influence — the rise of index investing and the long duration of low interest rates. But the biggest reason for a less efficient stock market, he says, is social media and related advances in technology.  “I’m far more certain that social media, the overconfidence that come when people think all the world’s data is at their fingertips, and gamified, fake-free, instant, 24/7 trading has done so in a significant way,” he says. MarketWatch 3 september 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-market-is-getting-less-efficient-copy-this-strategy-from-the-apes-says-a-veteran-fund-manager-fdea97a7 Buy th...

Först sades det att nedången beror på att recession hotar och att räntan därför genast borde sänkas, helst trippelsänkas. Det tycker visserligen den vanliga kohorten av börsmäklare, bankekonomer och fastighetsbolagsdirektör alltid, men ändå. Sedan kom förklaringen att det berodde på att börsmäklarnas datorer var programmerade att sälja om det gick ner mycket, en doom-loop. Den för dagen gällande förklaringen är att det är Carry Trade som är upphovet till allt ont. Japaner, japaner överallt japaner. Nu stärks kronan, till allmän förvåning. Det var inte länge sedan kohorten med Christer Gardell i spetsen hade förklaringen till den svaga svenska krona var att vi inte var med i euron Människan är ett flockdjur. Detta gäller i synnerhet folket på marknaden. Men de är faktiskt inte som en vargflock, mera som en fågelsvärm, som helt plötsligt byter riktning, som det synes helt utan anledning. Varför är det så? They don’t want to be what investor Mark Kritzman calls “wrong and alone.”  A m...

  'Nu ställer sig marknaden frågan om det kommer att bli ännu värre. ”Det är verkstadsbolagen som sätter press – Atlas Copco är ned 4 procent, det ser man inte varje dag.” DI 1 augusti 2024 https://www.di.se/live/arets-samsta-borsdag-efter-eftermiddagsras-verkstad-i-botten/ Diagram DAX   Det här med indexfonder är intressant. Om t ex Nvidia går upp måste indexfonderna köpa mer av företaget, för att följa index. Om Nvidia går ner... Ja, ni förstår. Trendbrott Var beredd på att marknaden går in i en ny tid. DI 1 augusti 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/en-ny-tid-det-sanker-borsen/ 1929 202? The trend is your friend.  And then the trend is not your friend.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/1929-202-trend-is-your-friend-and-then.html Fastighetsbolaget Oscar Properties begärs i konkurs https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/oscar-properties-begard-i-konkurs https://www.di.se/nyheter/monument-over-korthuset-som-foll/

  26 Dow Jones steg 1,6 procent med draghjälp från 3M, som rusade nästan 23 procent https://www.di.se/live/new-york-borsen-slutade-veckan-pa-plus-3m-rusade/ 25 Svängig dag på Wall Street slutade blandat – Ford rasade (di.se) The U.S. economy accelerated in the second quarter as consumers increased their spending, businesses invested more in equipment and stocked inventories, and inflation cooled. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8% for April through June  https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-gdp-economy-second-quarter-2024-485df1dc The new trend is bearish — at least for the short term A pattern of lower highs and lower lows has already emerged, which is quite bearish.  How did this happen so quickly? SPX bounced off of support at 5,500 on July 19.  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-markets-cruel-summer-is-about-to-get-much-worse-75afc885 Dow Jones backade omkring 1 procent, 19 juli https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/dow-jones-industriindex-backade-omkring....

  Di mötte finansmannen i Båstad för en stor intervju För två år sdan blev finansmannen Christer Gardell, född 4 december 1960, morfar för första gången, och för bara några veckor sedan kom barnbarn nummer två.   USA där finns uppenbara bubbeltendenser och där indexpengarna bara svämmar in och skjuter upp en del värderingar till himmelen”, säger han, och syftar på Magnificent seven-bolagen, det vill säga Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia och Tesla. ”Värdekoncentrationen på de amerikanska börserna har aldrig varit större, och värderingarna är också otroligt höga.” Om indextrenden fortsätter att förstöra marknaden, vilket den alltså gör nu enligt Christer Gardell, anser han att myndigheter måste gripa in. Du tycker man ska reglera? ”Jag vet inte, jag har inte sett någon vettig analys kring det. Men det är allvarligt när kapitalallokeringen, alltså den process som är grundbulten i kapitalismen, riskerar att väsentligt försämras.” Sedan byggs det ju inga bostäd...

Kolanovic’s departure follows a two-year stretch of disappointing market calls that saw him remain bullish as stocks tumbled in 2022,  only to turn bearish just as the market started to recover during the fourth quarter. MarketWatch 3 July 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jpmorgans-top-strategist-marko-kolanovic-is-leaving-after-missing-stocks-historic-rally-69f88bca Kolanovic’s departure follows a two-year stretch of disappointing market calls that saw him remain bullish as stocks tumbled in 2022,  only to turn bearish just as the market started to recover during the fourth quarter. MarketWatch 3 July 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jpmorgans-top-strategist-marko-kolanovic-is-leaving-after-missing-stocks-historic-rally-69f88bca They don’t want to be what investor Mark Kritzman calls “wrong and alone.”  Some value managers lost their jobs — perhaps most famously Tony Dye, who refused to hold US equities in 1999 because they were so overvalued.  He was fi...

It’s new ammo for critics of the global boom in passive investing, because index funds drive the phenomenon.  These products typically buy and sell shares at the close, since the last prices of the day are used to set the benchmarks they aim to replicate. Assets in passive equity funds have surged over the past decade to more than $11.5 trillion in the US alone The charge is one of a number leveled against passive investing, including that it can blindly inflate company valuations and wreak havoc when major indexes rebalance, triggering billions in one-way trades. The litany of concerns has inspired high-profile attacks from critics such as Elon Musk, and more recently Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn. Bloomberg 29 April 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/stocks-trade-for-390-minutes-a-day-increasingly-only-10-matter Passive investors have 'fundamentally broken' the market, David Einhorn says https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/02/passive-investors-hav...

 US markets are doing much better than markets everywhere else, but no one seems to know why.  Yes, there are theories: Perhaps it’s the promise of AI, although it remains to be seen how AI will play out and who will profit. Or maybe valuations are high, and the market will come down. Or … could it be that markets are doing better because no one is really thinking about them all that much? Markets are supposed to allocate capital to its most productive use.  If money goes to the wrong places, stocks become overvalued and vulnerable to bubbles.  For markets to be efficient, there needs to be a critical mass of investors who don’t believe in market efficiency — or believe that they are smarter than everyone else. But how many is enough? Now that passive money is dominant, are there too few? My next 401(k) contribution may be 5% in Nvidia (its share of the S&P 500), but it is also 0.45% in McDonalds.  I am not changing relative prices — and that’s what matters....

What If Fed Rate Hikes Are Actually Sparking US Economic Boom? It’s an idea so radical that in mainstream academic and financial circles, it borders on heresy — the sort of thing that in the past only Turkey’s populist president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or the most zealous disciples of Modern Monetary Theory would dare utter publicly. But the new converts say the economic evidence is becoming impossible to ignore.  The expansion now is as strong or even stronger than it was when the Federal Reserve first began lifting rates. The jump in benchmark rates from 0% to over 5% is providing Americans with a significant stream of income from their bond investments and savings accounts for the first time in two decades. “The reality is people have more money,” These people — and companies — are in turn spending a big enough chunk of that new-found cash, the theory goes, to drive up demand and goose growth. Kevin Muir and the rest of the contrarians — Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn is the ...

  For the first time  a majority of US investment funds were managed passively.  So how much active management is truly needed for public markets? Criticisms of passive management have been around for decades. Last week, it reached a new crescendo as the hedge fund manager David Einhorn, most famous for his successful short position in Lehman Brothers in 2008, complained in a Bloomberg interview that passive managers had broken the market.   https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/02/passive-investors-have-fundamentally.html  T he market could not possibly be managed on a 100% passive basis.  If this were to happen, it would cease to function and  price discovery  — setting a sensible price for different securities so that capital flows where it can be best used — would become impossible. As it is, index funds trust the valuations placed on companies by the market, which means sending more money toward companies that already have a lofty valuation....

Buying at any price simply isn’t good capitalism.  “Passive investors have no opinion about value. They’re going to assume everybody else has done the work.” Meanwhile, Charles Gave of Gavekal Research avers in as many words that “indexation will destroy capitalism.” This thinking isn’t new. Back in 2016, Alliance Bernstein’s Inigo Fraser Jenkins defined the issue for a generation with a lengthy paper arguing that “passive investing is worse for society than Marxism.” But it’s been given fresh impetus by the continuing levels of concentration in markets, which has grown extreme. The problem with passive funds is that as long as they’re taking in new money, they’ll accept the prices then available in the market. Thus, the more a company is valued, the more the fund will buy of that company, tending to push the price up further.  John Authers Wall Street Journal 9 February 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-09/magnificent-or-marxist-passive-investing-is-back...

 "The value industry has gotten completely annihilated," David Einhorn said on the Masters in Business podcast. He said fewer traders are paying attention to a firm's fundamental merits as passive investment has taken over. Overvalued equities are gaining the most, as traders mainly chase after price. The takeover of passive and algorithmic trading has made value investing significantly harder, with overvalued stocks now more likely to win out, Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn said. Algorithmic machine trading only compounds the issue, as quant traders heavily focus on short-term price moves, instead of a company's broader value, he said. As both passive and algorithmic traders chase after price, overvalued portions of the market are disproportionately bought.  https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/passive-investors-have-fundamentally-broken-the-market-david-einhorn-says/ar-BB1hZbjZ Indexfonder är en fara för aktiemarknaden och gör börsen till ”re...

 Without Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms—the high-growth, technology-related companies that analysts have dubbed the “Magnificent Seven”—the S&P 500 would only be up 9% this year, rather than 19%.  Some 44% of stocks in the index are down this year. This not only runs counter to the principle of diversification, but it also means the most important stocks investors own are pricey. The seven stocks have posted strong profits lately, but they are still trading at an average of 32 times forward earnings, That poses a conundrum for investors, who increasingly use index funds.  WSJ 5 December 2023 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/how-long-can-the-magnificent-seven-stocks-hold-the-line-0e9b5485 The Fangs have delivered spectacularly in the past couple of years.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-fangs.html Indexfonder är en fara för aktiemarknaden och gör börsen till ”rena Solvalla”, enligt finansmannen Christer Ga...

Most pros don’t beat the market either, and this has been true for decades. Since 2000, there have only been three years in which a majority of large cap funds outperformed. In the 2010s, on average, 8 out of 10 mutual funds and 9 out of 10 institutional funds underperformed in the US markets, after fees.  Still, a narrow elite does produce consistent returns, which requires a fine balance. The most successful ones have a disciplined system for anticipating markets — and the flexibility to change when conditions change.  They understand that analysis is important but temperament is more so. Experience matters and they have developed the skill to maximise gains when they are right, which is typically 60 per cent of the time, and to cut their losses the other 40 per cent of the time.  They have a view and stick to it, right up till the second it no longer makes sense. These, however, are the qualities of investment legends. Ruchir Sharma Financial Times 8 October 2023 https...

Indexförvaltning sätter börsens prismekanismer ur spel, och gör att kapitalallokeringen på börsen inte fungerar som den ska. Det säger Cevian-grundaren Christer Gardell i en intervju med Affärsvärlden. ”Innan myndigheter och alla aktörer fattar hur farligt det är, så kommer det att ha gått för långt”, säger han. Per H Börjesson, grundare av investmentbolaget: Det stämmer till viss del. Ett större problem enligt Per H Börjesson är ”dolda indexfonder”, som tar avgifter uppemot 2 procent trots att de i praktiken fungerar som indexfonder. DI 21 augusti 2023 https://www.di.se/nyheter/profilerna-i-brak-om-populara-fonderna-rena-solvalla/ Being wrong and alone is what gets asset managers fired. So NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING because most investment firms, whether they passively track a benchmark or actively pick stocks, have chosen to echo the weights of China in leading market indexes, no matter what happens. WSJ 24 September 2021 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/09/nobody-knows-anything.htm...

 just as it did equities a decade ago.  Equity investors have been shifting to passive index products for years. Created decades ago, their popularity ballooned following the 2008 financial crisis, fueled in part by skepticism of active money managers after stocks cratered. The fixed-income market has long been seen as more complex relative to stocks, allowing firms to justify the need for active management, and the juicier fees that come with it. But history is repeating. The dramatic losses in debt markets last year, fueled by the most aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening in a generation, has turned what was once a relatively slow and steady shift away from active bond funds and toward passive products into a stampede. Beyond Vanguard, the other big beneficiary of the shift from active to passive in fixed income has been BlackRock Inc. The firm’s more than 90 US index-tracking bond ETFs have taken in over $100 billion in the past year Bloomberg 9 May 2023 https://www...

”Indexfonder har varit en bättre placering än aktivt förvaltade fonder de senaste fem åren. Eller annorlunda uttryckt: aktivt förvaltade fonder får underkänt. Det är inte värt pengar att betala avgifter till fondbolagen. De levererar inte den överavkastning som jag som sparare förväntar mig”, säger Joacim Olsson, vd på Aktiespararna, till SVT. ”Om du har 100 pilkastande apor som år efter år kastar pil och väljer aktier på det sättet så kommer några över tid att ha ett bra resultat även fast det kanske är avgifter som dras hela tiden.” DI TT 6 pril 2023 https://www.di.se/live/aktiespararna-sagar-aktivt-forvaltade-sverigefonder/ Även Alecta ville springa i flocken Att placera pengar är svårt. Det vet alla som prövat. DI ledare Torun Nilsson 6 april 2023 https://www.di.se/ledare/aven-alecta-ville-springa-i-flocken/ Den svenska fondbranschen lever gott på att förvalta drygt 6.000 miljarder kronor åt svenska hushåll och företag. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/12/wall-streets-top-sta...

Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chase's co-head of global research, predicted a broad rally. He and his team pinned the S&P 500 Index at 5,050 by the end of 2022.  Stoltzfus, the chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer, was even bolder: 5,330. They were off by more than 1,000 points. With few exceptions, the best and brightest in stock and bond markets failed to appreciate how the inflation outbreak would upend the investing world in 2022.  They failed to anticipate how the Fed would react — the rate increases came at a torrid, not measured, pace — and failed to foresee how that, in turn, would trigger the worst simultaneous rout in stocks and bonds since at least the 1970s. There are 865 actively managed stock mutual funds domiciled in the US with at least $1 billion in assets. On average, they lost 19% in 2022. Bloomberg 29 December 2022  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-29/why-wall-street-got-inflation-interest-rate-predictions-wrong-in-2022 Much better off g...