Visar inlägg från mars, 2017

Cervenka om bopriser och skuldsättning. Om de haft rätt hade ju förstås landets folkvalda för flera år sedan vidtagit en lång rad åtgärder i syfte att undanröja faran.

Orosspridarna? Sveriges Riksbank, Konjunkturinstitutet, Finansinspektionen, Boverket, Internationella Valutafonden, OECD, EU-kommissionen, European Systemic Risk Board, Moody’s, UBS, Nobelpristagare som Robert Shiller och Paul Krugman, svenska ekonomer som Lars Jonung med flera, förre finansministern Anders Borg, förre Riksbankschefen Lars Heikensten… hur mycket tid har ni? Gemensamt för ovanstående är att de på olika sätt har uttryckt oro för de svenska bostadspriserna, hushållens skuldsättning, de svenska bankerna och det otrevliga som allt detta riskerar att göra med svensk ekonomi. Lite ovanliga namn för att ingå i en populistisk desinformationsoperation, det ska medges. Andreas Cervenka. SvD 27 mars 2017 Huspriser hos IntCom

The Commission’s recent “White Paper on the Future of Europe” that sets out five possible paths forward for Europe

Rather than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, the EU needs to address why the ship is sinking. The choice will require EU leaders first to assess, with honesty and even bravery, where the EU is right now.  They must be willing to call a spade a spade – or, in this case, to call the EU an intergovernmental organization in transnational clothing.  Only after they recognize that this is a dysfunctional structure – because it allows both the EU institutions and member states to skirt responsibility by constantly pointing fingers at one another – can they pursue the needed rebalancing. Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister and former Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Project Syndicate 20 March 2017

Att lämna euron eller sin partner är jobbigt. Men det kan var mödan värt.

 - En möjlig tolkning är att euron snarare än att vara en mekanism för ”en allt fastare sammanslutning av de europeiska folken” kanske kan vara den mekanism som håller ihop EU och förhindrar ett sönderfall därför att en återgång till nationella valutor upplevs som alltför komplicerad och riskfylld.  Lars Calmfors,  Eurokrisen, eurosamarbetets regelsystem och den framtida integrationen (SIEPS 2017:1)

The Economist: Never-closer union

If it is to survive, the European Union must become a lot more flexible The Economist print 25 March 2017

Global fund managers say stock markets are more overvalued today than at any time this century, but are continuing to buy, Ambrose

but are continuing to buy equities aggressively, betting the day of reckoning is a way off yet. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 21 March 2017

The problem with cocos more broadly is that nobody knows if they work. FT

Lloyds Bank of the UK issued the first coco as part of a big capital restructuring in 2009.   Over $153bn of the securities have been issued since FT 21 March 2017

Varför investera när man kan köpa tillbaka sina egna aktier?

Då stiger vinsten per aktie. Antalet aktier minskar ju. Det kan bli fina bonusar av det. $4 Trillion of Corporate Equity Liquidated Since 2000 Se även There’s Only One Buyer Keeping S&P 500’s Bull Market Alive - $165 billion Buyback S&P constituents are poised to repurchase as much as $165 billion of stock this quarter, approaching a record reached in 2007.  20160315 The real, less respectable reason why companies engage in buybacks, namely to boost earnings per share by shrinking the equity. Plender

A popular options-market gauge of so-called black swan trades at record levels.

A popular options-market gauge of so-called black swan, or difficult to predict, events  is drawing the attention of some bears on Wall Street as it trades at record levels. MarketWatch 21 March 2017

Fed might be doing the right thing for the U.S. But for foreign companies and governments ....

But for foreign companies and governments that have borrowed trillions of U.S. dollars, the adjustment could be painful. Mark Whitehouse, Bloomberg 19 March 2017

Either political integration catches up with economic integration, or economic integration needs to be scaled back. Rodrik

As long as this decision is evaded, the EU will remain dysfunctional. Dani Rodrik, Project Syndicate 14 March 2017

Annie Johansson (C) ångrar ett politiskt beslut: att hon röstade nej till att byta krona mot euro 2003.

Sv D 18 juni 2011 

IMF - Conservatives in US Congress say Europeans should solve the crisis on their own

“For seven years now, the IMF has been used to shield eurozone officials from their voters, which has tarnished the Fund’s reputation, prolonged Greece’s misery, and put off hard choices about Europe's future that must be made regardless.” FT 17 March 2017

Eight Years Of Bull Ends Tomorrow, Stockman

David Stockman. Posted On Tuesday, March 14th, 2017

Why Robert Shiller Is Worried About the Trump Rally

Still about 30 percent below its high in 2000, stocks are almost as expensive now as they were on the eve of the 1929 crash. Bloomberg 14 March 2017

Greenspan conundrum has, for now, disappeared. Davies

Greenspan found it puzzling that long term bond yields were declining in a period during which the FOMC had just raised short-term rates by 150 basis points.  Gavyn Davies, FT 12 March 2017

US President Donald Trump suffers from an acute strain of trade deficit disorder. Roach

The US has trade deficits with 101 nations. This is not a bilateral problem. Reflects a far deeper problem: the US’s saving deficit.  Stephen Roach, FT 7 March 2017

Postmortem plans for banks under threat of extinction

Today, there is worrying evidence on both sides of the Atlantic that the resolution idea could be in jeopardy before it has been fully implemented, let alone tested FT 6 March 2017

The Dollar, Bretton Woods, Triffin and China

Now as then, the US could meet the rest of the world’s appetite for dollars by issuing more dollar debt. This would require the US to run sustained current-account deficits, mirrored in fiscal deficits. Of course, while the link to gold is passé, any domestic fiscal objective to curb US debt growth would be at odds with the international role as sole provider of the reserve currency. Carmen Reinhart, Project Syndicate 2 March 2017

Max Weber Lecture by Barry Eichengreen (Berkeley), 15 February 2017


The present outbreak of euphoria contains a number of distinct, bubble-like characteristics. Warner

Markets are leaving themselves virtually no room for disappointment.  There is unfortunately a real possibility that Mr Trump will be unable to deliver on his tax cutting and infrastructure spending plans Jeremy Warner, Telegraph 2 March 2017