Leta i den här bloggen


European banks still have post-crisis repairs to do

Former US policymakers say their counterparts did not do enough to stop the rot

Gillian Tett FT 19 July 2018

Martin Wolf: 
My own view is that the people, including Geithner, who dealt with this crisis made big mistakes but also saved the world from another Great Depression


The largest holders of US Treasuries after China and Japan

 are listed below. 
And a quick review of the facts underscores that they are even more unnatural holders of Uncle Sam's debt than China, Japan or Russia.
For instance, Ireland's $301 billion of holdings amounts to 90% of its $330 billion GDP. 
We seriously doubt that its central bank was in the business of "investing" nearly the totality of its national income in Uncle Sam's low yielding paper.

EU Sovereignty east and west

For many westerners the point of the EU is to bind countries into a peace project that also delivers economic benefits by obliging them to pool sovereignty; “nationalism” thus becomes a dirty word. 

But for easterners, joining the EU was in part a guarantee of the national sovereignty that had been squashed during decades of subjugation by the Soviet empire.

Bankernas utlåning till hushållen - Swedbank störst

Av 3 597 048 MSEK i utlåning till hushållen står Swedbank, Handelsbanken, SEB och Nordea för 74 %. 

Cornucopia 18 juli 2018

The Debt Train Will Crash - Mauldin

“We no longer have business cycles, we have credit cycles.”

 Post-crisis growth, mild as it’s been, has been largely a function of debt, which central banks encouraged and enabled. 

The result was inflated asset prices without the kind of “recovery” seen in previous business cycles. 

Interest rates, i.e. the cost of debt, thus became critical.

I showed in that letter how companies will need to refinance about $4T of bonds in the next year, almost all of it at higher rates. 

This will hit debt-burdened companies that are already struggling and make it almost impossible for some to keep operating. 

Lenders, i.e. high-yield bond holders, will try to exit their positions all at once only to find a severe shortage of willing buyers.

Trump’s Trade War May Spark a Chinese Debt Crisis

A tighter dollar will make the bursting of the credit bubble an inevitability

The whole economy is a Ponzi scheme.

Anne Stevenson-Yang Bloomberg 18 July 2018

There was no deleveraging at all ---just more of the same

and that the debt-based financial fragility that caused the system to literally meltdown in the fall of 2008 

has merely metastized from $52 trillion to nearly $69 trillion.

David Stockman's Contra Corner 17 July 2018


In Science explanation for weather pattern in which the jet stream stalls out over a region

A study published earlier this year in Science offers an explanation for a mysterious and sometimes deadly weather pattern in which the jet stream, the global air currents that circle the Earth, stalls out over a region.

AGweb 3 July 2018

Spanska sjukan - antalet döda var kanske 30 eller 40 miljoner. Första världskriget slukade 9,2 miljoner soldatliv

Spanien var neutralt och saknade krigstidscensur blev de första att få god kännedom om pandemin

Det är troligt att det verkliga antalet döda var kanske 30 eller 40 miljoner. 

Första världskriget slukade 9,2 miljoner soldatliv och sammanlagt omkring 15 miljoner människor. 

Dick Harrison SvD 16 juli 2018

Smittskydd & beredskap hos Folkhälsomyndigheten

Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crisis Changed the World, Book by Adam Tooze

What really went wrong in 2008?

"Even people who have followed this story closely will learn a great deal."

Also present are some huge political stories: the meddling of the EU in Ukraine

Martin Wolf FT’s chief economics commentator 17 July 2018

Bankcheferna tror inte på kris

”Borg för alarmistisk”

SvD 5 juli 2018


Increased fluctuations in the path of the North Atlantic jet stream since the 1960s coincide with more extreme weather events in Europe such as heat waves

Having a 290-year record of the position of the jet stream let Trouet and her colleagues determine that swings between northern and southern positions of the jet became more frequent in the second half of the 20th century

When the North Atlantic jet is in the extreme northern position, the British Isles and western Europe have a summer heat wave while southeastern Europe has heavy rains and flooding

futurity.org January 16th, 2018

The big question is “why does the jet stream shift?”

The findings suggest the latitude of the Atlantic jet stream in summer is influenced by several factors, including sea surface temperatures, solar variability, and the extent of Arctic sea-ice. 


The ECB defines price stability as inflation “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.”

That is a lower inflation rate than even the Bundesbank achieved during its celebrated pre-euro history, and it is a tighter target than virtually all other central banks pursue. 

For some, too much of a good thing is apparently wonderful.

Stefan Gerlach Project Syndicate 12 July 2018

Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has also served as Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and as Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.


Bears sound clever; bulls make money.

The pessimists believe that markets drive the economy. In their view, near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing, or QE, pushed investors out of government bonds and into risky assets.  

Now that such policies are reversing, stocks and corporate bonds are vulnerable—and so is the economy. 

The optimists, by contrast, believe that markets are led by the economy. Only when it shows weakness, and profits slump, is it time to get out.

There is no rational reason to buy a geriatric bull market that has 3-5% upside and 40-50% downside.

But we have finally reached the point where investor risk/reward metrics have absolutely nothing to do with the daily bumps and grinds of the stock averages.

That is to say, the chart monkeys now own the casino lock, stock and barrel. The alternating red and green flickers on the tickers discount nothing real because everything which is real points to crunch time ahead.

David Stockman 12 July  2018


monetary union without banking union will not work. Eichengreen

Euro Area needs vigorous, coordinated regulation of its banking and financial systems by a single supervisor

— monetary union without banking union will not work.

Barry Eichengreen sciencedirect 19 June 2018


The last days of a prime minister are dreadful

Edwina Currie Telegraph 9 July 2018

The Prime Minister overplayed her hand disastrously by trying to bounce the Cabinet and the Parliamentary party into support for a settlement that violates the electoral manifesto, the Lancaster House speech, the verdict of the referendum, and the minimum conditions of sovereign self-government.  

Ambrose 9 July 2018

The bloody history of civil war in the Tory party and The 1990 Tory coup against Margaret Thatcher

Englund blog 27 February 2016

America’s foreign trade deficits on goods transactions are getting worse.

Trade deficits with the EU and China, growing at respective annual rates of 15 percent and 10 percent

Michael Ivanovitch CNBC 9 July 2018

France’s market watchdog is bracing for a surge in global bond yields and a Wall Street crash

as soon as this year, fearing that contagion will spread to Europe and snuff out the fragile recovery.

“The world has never been so indebted – even more than before the 2007 crisis – and this debt has never been so risky,” said the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in its annual report.

Italy’s debts to European Central Bank near €500bn

Germany’s Target 2 surplus is on track to reach €1tn.

FT 9 July 2018


DN om folkpartiet: Hur länge är folkets nej till eurosamarbetet giltigt?

Och vad ska EU egentligen ägna sig åt? 

Att skrota den svenska kronan nu kan ju inte vara en valvinnare.

Hungern efter den federalistiska agenda som Jan Björklund presenterade i Almedalen, och ”Mer EU!”, är dessvärre dämpad.

Spain’s Bankia, the country’s fourth-largest bank

It’s been a headache for Spanish leaders since it required a rescue in 2012 to avert a collapse 

that could have brought down the nation’s entire financial system. 

Bloomberg 6 July 2018

BIS frets about an inexorable increase in global debt level Tett

217 per cent of gross domestic product, up from 179 per cent a decade ago. This partly reflects government borrowing. 

However, corporate leverage has also exploded, particularly among western high-risk borrowers and emerging markets companies, most notably in China.

Extreme heat sets records across the northern hemisphere

These meteorological events are linked by the behaviour of the jet stream, the band of fast winds blowing west to east in the upper atmosphere.

Movements in the wavy path that the jet stream follows around the globe play a key role in determining weather conditions.

FT 5 July 2018

Väderkartan är konstig (inte som den var förr)


Europe’s establishment is luxuriating in two recent announcements Varoufakis

Europe’s establishment is luxuriating in two recent announcements that would have been momentous even if they were only partly accurate: 

The end of Greece’s debt crisis, and a Franco-German accord to redesign the eurozone. 

Unfortunately, both reports offer fresh proof of the European Union establishment’s remarkable talent for never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

Yanis Varoufakis Project Syndicate 28 June 2018 


Valet 1976 präglades av kärnkraft och löntagarfonder, av socialism mot frihet

Den som inte visste var den lilla byn Sibbhult låg fick den rejält placerad på kartan av Gösta Bohman.

Där, i nordöstra Skåne, hade arbetarekommunen motionerat om avsikten att de svenska produktionsmedlen ”alltmer övergår till samhället och de anställda”. 

Den socialdemokratiska partikongressen hade antagit motionen. 

Var det alltså, undrade Bohman försmädligt ofta, Olof Palmes vilja att avskaffa marknadsekonomin?

Erik Helmerson DN 27 juni 2018


Euron och Schengen var välbetänkt

Varför har den Europeiska Unionen infört Euron och Schengen fastän det stod klart för de flesta att detta var högriskprojekt ?

Jo, därför att de romantiska utopisterna vill skapa en riktig Union, som USA.

En stat med Parlament, Domstol, en yttre men ingen inre gräns, ett EU-pass och medborgarskap samt naturligtvis en valuta. Frimärkena kommer väl senare, liksom försvaret som dock redan är under uppbyggnad.

Och, givetvis, en flagga.

If you want to understand what is happening to the European Union’s constitution, the EU flag is a good place to start. 

European leaders will agree to delete references to the flag in the constitution. Everybody knows the flags will keep flying. 

The words in the constitution will change. But the substance will remain the same.

Gideon Rachman, Financial Times June 12 2007

The constitution is a symbol. After decades in which the EU has gradually accrued more powers – without going out of its way to draw attention to the fact – the creation of a real constitution was a coming-out party for those who believe in a European political union. 

Rather than disguising the true aim of the “project”, European federalists were proudly proclaiming it – and seeking popular endorsement. 

So the rejection of the constitution was a crushing blow.

The federalist response – pushed by the Germans who will be in the chair at next week’s meeting – is to repackage the constitution and to try to push it through regardless. 

The name constitution will be dropped. Instead, the document will be called a treaty and will be stripped of the symbols of statehood – like the flag and the EU anthem. 

But very little of the legal substance will change.

The aim is to make the constitution seem dull and technical – and so to allow governments to push it through parliaments without any unpredictable referendums. 


Germany is the largest guarantor of the OMT

Germany is the largest guarantor of the European Central Bank’s credit default insurance, known as the OMT, 

and provides by far the largest stock of “target” overdraft credit to other European countries, currently €956bn.

Hans-Werner Sinn FT 27 June 2018

ETFs equity-fund assets that are passively managed

The proportion of U.S. equity-fund assets that are passively managed has nearly doubled in that time to nearly 40 percent.

Satyajit Das Bloomberg 27 June 2018

Germany gave up its deutschmark to forge a monetary union and satisfy French and British fears over its post-reunification muscle

Germany even gave up its fabled deutschmark, a totem of hard-earned postwar affluence, to forge a monetary union and satisfy French and British fears over its post-reunification muscle.

Bloomberg 27 June 2018

In Strasbourg on Dec. 9, 1989, after the Berlin Wall fell, Germany agreed to monetary union in order to get President Mitterand to agree to German reunification

WSJ 23 Sept 2011

Should stresses emerge, market liquidity will evaporate again

the insidious illusion of permanent liquidity has not gone away. 

insidious = proceeding in a gradual, subtle way, but with very harmful effects.

If central banks are not the main cause of lower interest rates

For one, it means that rates will probably remain low even after the ECB finishes its asset purchases.

Marc Chandler FT 27 June 2018

Banks - More than $425bn

More than $425bn, or 12 per cent, has been knocked off the value of S&P 500 financial shares since they set a post-crisis record in January. 

FT 27 June 2018

Banks at IntCom


Banks may be disguising their borrowings BIS

Banks may be disguising their borrowings in a way similar to that used by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., with debt ratios falling within limits imposed by regulators just four times a year.

Lenders use repurchase agreements -- known as repos -- to massage down their assets as reporting dates approach, typically as quarters end, the Bank for International Settlements said in its Annual Economic Report.

Bloomberg 24 June 2018


Until Greece can successfully sell a multi-billion euro bond to international investors

Until Greece can successfully sell a multi-billion euro bond to international investors, it can’t truly be said to be on a sustainable path.  

An offering could come as soon as July, but yields need to fall further and investors need to turn up in size. Neither is certain.

For now, the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank have chosen to extend and pretend.

Bloomberg 22 June 2018

Any reversal in our fortunes could be “quick and sharp”, says the Bank for International Settlements

World debt ratios have spiralled to record levels during the era of super-easy money and markets are showing tell-tale signs of late-cycle excess, leaving the international financial system acutely vulnerable to a jump in borrowing costs. 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph 24 June 2018

Any reversal in our fortunes could be “quick and sharp”, says the Bank for International Settlements, the venerable global watchdog based in Switzerland and the scourge of dissolute practice.

Full text


Sandberg, Ahlmark och Olof Lagercrantz

Nils-Eric Sandberg om Per Ahlmark
SvD 21 juni 2018

"Det kommunistiska partiet har skapat ofantligt mycket som är värdefullt och framtidsdugligt. 
Det har bland annat – och det är en stor sak – befriat det ryska folket från påträngande materiell nöd, medan samtidigt miljoner svälter i Förenta Staterna" 

Olof Lagercrantz om Sovjetunionens kommunistiska parti. Dagens Nyheter, 11/7 1968.

Läs mer här

Tänk om dom hade fått igenom sina förslag!

“The Greek crisis ends here tonight in Luxembourg.”

Pierre Moscovici, the EU’s economy commissioner, said after the meeting. 

The earliest repayment deadlines shift from 2023 to 2033.

FT 22 June 2018

Greece - Extend and Pretend, again


Why banks and regulators missed the risks in the credit system before 2008

In coming months, on the 10th anniversary of the last great financial crisis, there will be a new round of debate about why banks and regulators missed the risks in the credit system before 2008.

It’s not the big, obviously radical decisions that create disasters in finance but subtle periods of mission creep, when slightly deviant behaviour is quietly tolerated.

Gillian Tett FT 20 June 2018

Financial crisis

Greece - Extend and Pretend, again

An agreement was close that would leave Greece with minimal repayments until after 2030 on the €228bn it owes to the rest of the eurozone. 

FT 21 June 2018

“extend and pretend”
Europe's Unserious Plan for Greece
The latest deal on debt won’t work, and everybody knows it.


Att vända utvecklingen till mer subsidiaritet, färre åtaganden och större fokus på just den inre marknaden är inte en helt enkel uppgift.

Det finns goda skäl att vara kritisk till hur det europeiska samarbetet har utvecklats under de senaste åren. 

Förslaget på nästa långtidsbudget med nya utgiftsökningar och egen beskattningsrätt för unionen är ett. 

Kommissionens generella ovilja att lyssna på den kritik om centralisering och överstatlighet som åtminstone delvis föranledde det brittiska utträdet, är ett annat.

Catarina Kärkkäinen Ordförande Fria Moderata Studentförbundet SvD 20 juni 2018

Kommentar RE: Lycka till Catarina i arbetet för att vända utvecklingen inom EU till mer subsidiaritet och färre åtaganden, mer som EEC än som EU och ett nytt Romarrike. 

Vi tror på Europa


Prolonged recessions are a feature /of EMU/, not a bug.

Part of the adjustment mechanism built into the currency union is the pro-cyclical impact of monetary policy: 

real interest rates are higher in countries forced through internal devaluations.
The mechanism of adjustment in the eurozone is therefore essentially that of the 19th-century gold standard. 

Prolonged recessions are a feature, not a bug.

The euro has been a failure. The single currency has failed to deliver economic stability or a greater sense of a European identity. Martin Wolf

 It has become a source of discord.

The story of Italy is revealing and, given its size, of crucial importance.

All of this was predicted. 

In his excellent EuroTragedy, Princeton University’s Ashoka Mody cites a critique of the 1970 Werner Committee report, the first blueprint for a monetary union, by Nicholas Kaldor, a British economist of Hungarian origin.

Kaldor argued there would need to be fiscal transfers. That would require a political union. 

But the conflicts created by the currency union would fester, making moves towards such a union more difficult. So it has proved.

Martin Wolf FT 19 June 2018


Germany increased its competitiveness by keeping wage growth muted

Germany increased its competitiveness by keeping wage growth muted in the worst years of the global financial crisis. 

It managed to push unemployment to record lows, but this came largely through the creation of low-paying, low-skill jobs, resulting in a decline in labor productivity

Deutsche Welle 19 june 2018

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers:

“The consequences of another economic downturn dwarf and massively exceed any adverse consequences associated with inflation pushing a bit above 2 percent,” 

Summers said at a European Central Bank conference in Sintra, Portugal.

Bloomberg 18 June 2018

Riktiga karlar är inte rädda för lite inflation


February’s market shock was just the canary in the coal mine

Low volatility leads investors and traders to adopt strategies that make the financial system more fragile and vulnerable to crisis.

John Plender FT 18 June 2018

ECB has allowed investors to overlook the fragilities in the public finances of several member states and the flaws in the monetary union

For three years, the ECB has allowed investors to overlook the fragilities in the public finances of several member states and the flaws in the monetary union.

Governments must now learn to do without the central bank’s support.

Bloomberg Editorial 15 June 2018

Italian banks have pulled assets out of the central bank

and deposited them across the Eurosystem's banking institutions.

Target2 liabilities now stand at €465bn

Jamie Powell ftalphaville 12 June 2018

The euro may be approaching another crisis. Stiglitz

Italy, the eurozone’s third largest economy, has chosen what can at best be described as a Euroskeptic government.

This should surprise no one. 

Joseph E. Stiglitz, Project Syndicate 13 June 2018


Karolina Ekholm: "Euron lyfter Sverige"

Statssekreterare Karolina Ekholm intervjuas av Per Lindvall Realtid 15 juni 2018.

Karolina Ekholm är professor i nationalekonomi. Hon var vice riksbankschef under åren 2009-2014.

Jag letar i min dator och finner där:

Karolina Ekholm skrev, tillsammans The Usual Suspects, inför folkomröstningen om Euron, en artikel under rubriken "Euron lyfter Sverige" som bör bli famös, 

att "nationella valutor med rörliga växelkurser fungerar som handelshinder. Därför är en gemensam valuta ett naturligt och nödvändigt steg för att realisera den gemensamma marknaden". 

Sådant kan man bli professor för i Sverige, tråkigt nog.

Man kan också efter denna lojalitetsförklaring till euron bli både vice riksbankschef och statssekreterare.

Kanske en svensk Deep State?

Full text 


2,4tn euro - hur mycket är det ?

ECB to phase out €2.4tn bond-buying programme by year end

FT 14 June 2018

Hur mycket är det ?

1 tn = 1.000 miljarder.
2,4 tn = 2.400 miljarder.

Detta är euro. 1 euro = 10,15 SEK

Det blir 24.360 miljarder kr eller

24 360 000 000 kr, eller skall det vara tre nollor till ?

Det är väl väldigt mycket?

Jag har nog räknat fel.



TIPS in a Rising Interest Rate Environment

Gobal systemically important financial institutionsm lost $800bn in market capital

Post-crisis, financial regulators decided to nominate a select few GSifis 

(global systemically important financial institutions). 

From the market top on January 26 until May 31, they lost $800bn in market capital, or about 18 per cent.

John Authers FT 14 June 2018

Fed höjde räntan med 0,25 % till 2 procent. Marknaderna skälvde.

För tio år sedan höll världsekonomin på att implodera efter det att Lehman Brothers gick i konkurs.

Sedan dess har världens centralbanker hållit räntan runt noll procent.

Nu måste de höja räntan igen för att skuldsättningen inte skall skena vidare.

Men debatten rasar om huruvida detta är för tidigt. Många är osäkra på om världens ekonomi tål högre räntor utan att implodera igen.

Så illa är det.

We do live in interesting times.

“The problem with QE is that it works in practice, but it doesn’t work in theory,” said former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke.

Monetarists and "creditists" disagree profoundly over the mechanism. 

Which of the two is right will determine whether the world muddles through or crashes into recession in 2019.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 13 June 2018

The global bond rout has begun, leaving equities on borrowed time

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, 10 JANUARY 2018


A Euro Tragedy - a clear mistake, a triumph of a political ideal of European unity over basic economics.

As the /book/ title indicates, this is not a pros versus cons assessment. Instead the author treats the Euro as a clear mistake, a triumph of a political ideal of European unity over basic economics.

The author provides a clear (and accessible for non-economists) account of how the idea of the Euro began to dominate the political discourse of particularly the French elite 

and how Germany leaders agreed on the condition that they determined the design

Simon Wren-Lewis 2 June 2018

Moderaterna inför EU-valet: "Vi är i grunden positiva till en gemensam valuta"

Moderaterna och EMU

Svenskt militärt bistånd till Baltikum

Hans Lindblad, om att vi främst kan erbjuda tillgång till svenskt luft-, sjö- och landterritorium.

SvD 2 maj 2018


Mr Edwards’ “Ice Age” thesis

first honed in the late 1990s that markets in the West were about to follow the example set by Japan

bond yields heading to zero and a collapse in equity values after the Japanese bubble burst at the end of the 1980s. 

FT 9 June 2018


$2.34tn of treasuries will be sold in the next two years.

The main, obsessive focus for debate around the Fed right now is whether it will raise policy rates three or four times this year.
But if Urjit Patel, the governor of India’s central bank, is correct, this obsession with US interest rates misses the point.

So, in the time-honored tradition of lenders everywhere, we extend and pretend.

 But with our ability to pretend almost gone, we’re heading to the Great Reset.

John Mauldin 8 June 2018


David Stockman´s Conspiracy Theory

The Great Disrupter is fixing to do his thing at the G-7 meeting, and his impending rebuke to the keepers of the G-7 "consensus" could not be more welcome. That's because these so-called globalist multilateral institutions are the real enemy of democracy, capitalist prosperity and human liberty in the world today.
The G-7, the G-20, NATO, the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO ( World Trade Organization) and the rest are the vehicles through which the permanent political class rules and ruins the world.
That is, elected presidents, prime ministers and parliamentarians come and go. But mostly they get led around by the nose by the bureaucrats and apparatchiks who run their governments, populate their think tanks, NGOs and lobbies and propagate their group-think through the likes of G-7. 


The U.S. trade deficit shrank 2.1% in April to a seven-month low. But...

But the gap is still on track to widen in 2018 to the highest level in a decade.

MarketWatch 6 June 2018

Jens Weidmann vs. Mario Draghi

The head of Germany’s central bank Jens Weidmann, who is seen as a leading candidate to become the next president of the ECB, 

has taken aim at plans for creating new eurozone funds to help crisis-hit countries, urging governments to instead make greater efforts to put their finances in order.

ECB president Mario Draghi last month called explicitly for the eurozone to equip itself with “an additional fiscal instrument to maintain convergence during large shocks, without having to overburden monetary policy”.

FT 5 June 2018


Hakelius EU har i drygt tjugo år målmedvetet valt en strategi som går ut på att stänga alla nödutgångar. Priset ska göras så högt att ingen vågar backa.

EU-fantaster applåderar Macrons imperiedrömmar, men de skulle bara öka bara de klyftor som öppnat sig mellan öst och väst, syd och nord. 

Problemet är att ingen verkar kunna formulera alternativ med politisk kraft.
Det enda som kommer är lite mildare varianter av Macronmodellen.

Italy turmoil shows banking ‘doom loop’ still a powerful force


RBS Government’s stake is worth around £24bn, little more than half

RBS Government’s stake is worth around £24bn, 

little more than half the £45bn of public money used to keep the bank afloat

Jeremy Warner 12 May 2018

I am no populist. 
Yet when I think of the sums earned by those responsible for dumping this mess on to the UK taxpayer, even my blood boils.

Martin Wolf, Financial Times March 5 2009