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2018-09-21

A Template For Understanding Big Debt Crises, by Ray Dalio, Bridgewater, 471 pages

Too many suffered too much for too long, while those responsible avoided justice.

Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater 


As Dalio would have predicted, problems were harshest in economies that do not control the currency in which they borrow 


As for the solution, he is gloriously laconic: “In the end, policymakers always print.” 


John Authers FT 21 September 2018

Om man har en sedelpress går man inte i konkurs

Englund blog 4 november 2011




2018-09-20

The EU Is Looking Like Europe’s Next Failed Empire

It needs the U.S. and NATO help to avoid the fate of the Austro-Hungarians.


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-20/the-eu-is-looking-like-europe-s-next-failed-empire


Rome, Habsburg and the European Union

https://www.internetional.se/paxromana.htm

The 40% rise in the price of pot stock Tilray this morning, which amounted to a neat $9 billion in a single day's gulp, was about as close to pure reefer madness as you can get without inhaling.

Its $28 million of revenue and $8 millions of net losses in 2017 are now valued at $22.2 billion, which amounts to a nice round multiple of 785X sales!
We do reckon, of course, that occasionally a start-up of true technological brilliance surrounded by patent-protected moats might initially be worth something like that multiple during its early years.
But a dope purveyor which grows the stuff in greenhouses, sells thru pharmacies and on-line, has no patents, no barriers to entry and no material brands--- since the incipient mass market cannabis industry barely exists?

2018-09-16

Under krisåren spenderade EU-länderna sammanlagt över 2 000 miljarder euro i skattepengar för att rädda banker.

Grekland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien och Cypern fick alla enorma räddningslån från EU och IMF, och en stor del av pengarna gick till att hålla kommersiella banker flytande
– samtidigt som befolkningarna i de krisdrabbade länderna underkastades hårda åtstramningspaket, med sänkta löner och pensioner.


Teresa Küchler SvD 15/9 2018


- Den stora risken var att Grekland skulle utlösa en kris i italienska, franska och tyska banker. 

Nu finns i praktiken en EU-garanti för de utestående grekiska statsobligationerna.


Anders Borg, TT, SvD papper 22 februari 2012


2018-09-14

10 Things People Still Get Wrong About the Financial Crisis

All are the result of bias, ignorance, laziness or bad faith.


Klas Eklund, finanskrisen och The Big Short

Steve Eisman blev världsberömd efter att en karaktär baserad på honom blev huvudrollen i filmen “Big Short”.

– Nu vill alla att jag ska berätta vad som blir nästa krasch, säger han till DN på tioårsdagen av finanskraschen.


DN 14/9 2018


”Beredskapen inför nästa finanskris inte särskilt hög”
Klas Eklund DN Debatt 14/9 2018


Läs mer här

2018-09-13

State of the Union 2018


Annual State of the EU address by President Juncker at the European Parliament

12 September 2018


Juncker beskrev en plan för att skapa en 10 000 man stark gränsbevakningsstyrka... I den mån EU klarar att komma överens om flyktingar handlar det om att hålla dem borta. 

Avtalet med Turkiets auktoritäre president Erdogan var en tvivelaktig modell. Numera litar EU även till Libyens krigsherrar.

Det finns en grumlig tanke om att bygga förläggningar i Nordafrika, där en och annan eventuellt kan söka asyl i EU.

DN-ledare 13/9 2018


Federalism


2018-09-07

The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisis

Banks are safer, but too much of what has gone wrong since 2008 could happen again

The state had no choice but to stand behind failing banks, but it took the ill-judged decision to all but abandon insolvent households. 

Perhaps 9m Americans lost their homes in the recession

The Economist editorial 6 September 2018

Goldman bear market indicator

2018-09-06

Lehman insider: why the bank could and should have been saved

The presidential candidates of the day, the late John McCain and Barack Obama, were delivering speeches saying that Washington must save Main Street, not Wall Street.

FT 6 September 2018

2018-09-05

U.S. trade deficit surges to $50.1 billion in July from $45.7 billion

The U.S. trade deficit added up to almost $338 billion in the first seven months of 2018. 

That compared to $316 billion in the same span in 2017.

MarketWatch 5 September 2018

US Trade deficit at IntCom

2018-09-04

As the U.S. economy entered its worst downturn since the Great Depression, Congress enacted legislation to increase discretionary spending to stimulate the economy.

New programs ranged from financial assistance for large banks and car manufacturers to tax rebates for low-income households and also included funding for public projects, such as highway construction.

At its peak, in early 2009, total discretionary spending was about $1.2 trillion in annual terms, or 7 percent of GDP.


St. Louis Fed 2018-08-24

J.P. Morgan's top quant Marko Kolanovic predicts a "Great Liquidity Crisis" will hit financial markets, marked by flash crashes in stock prices and social unrest.


A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, J.P. Morgan takes a look back at the response to the financial crisis that reshaped financial markets and the global economy.

CNBC 4 September 2018


Lehman

We May Be Facing a Textbook Emerging-Market Crisis

Argentina and Turkey look like outliers but the rot could spread fast.

Satyajit Das Bloomberg 3 september 2018

Why so little has changed since the financial crash


If those who believe in the market economy and liberal democracy do not come up with superior policies, demagogues will sweep them away.

A better version of the pre-2008 world will just not do. People do not want a better past; they want a better future.

Martin Wolf FT 4 september 2018

2018-09-01

Argentina opposition fantasise about President Mauricio Macri fleeing the presidential palace in a helicopter

— just as the president did last time an IMF programme failed in Argentina before its 2001 crisis.

FT 31 August 2018

I think the mother of all Minsky moments is building. Mauldin


It will not be an instant sandpile collapse, but instead take years because we have $500 trillion of debt to work through.


We cannot accurately predict when the avalanche will happen. 


John Mauldin 1 September 2018

Gillian Tett: Have we learnt the lessons of the financial crisis?


One day in the early summer of 2007, I received an email out of the blue from an erudite Japanese central banker called Hiroshi Nakaso. “I am somewhat concerned,” he began in typically understated manner, before warning that a financial crisis was about to explode because of problems in the American mortgage and credit market.

I was astonished. That was not because I disagreed with Nakaso’s analysis: by June 2007, I had been writing about the credit sector for a couple of years as the FT’s capital markets editor in London, and was uneasy. 

But I was surprised that it was Nakaso raising the alarm.

So why was Nakaso pessimistic? “Déjà vu”, he replied. 

A decade earlier, back in 1997, Nakaso had been working at the Japanese Central Bank when Tokyo plunged into its terrible banking crisis, sparked by $1tn of bad loans left by Japan’s 1980s real estate baburu keiki, or bubble.


2018-08-31

airstreams that circle the globe high above the surface and steer weather systems.

New peer-reviewed research from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research shows that there is mounting evidence that humans are influencing the giant airstreams that circle the globe high above the surface and steer weather systems.

Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist 8/22/2018

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/nice-sunny-days-can-grow-into-heat-waves-2013-and-wildfires-summer-weather-is-stalling

2018-08-30

Argentina continues to suffer from deepening market panic.

Interest rates at world highs. The largest International Monetary Fund programme in history. A pro-business government, with a technocratic cabinet that world leaders are keen to support. 

And yet Argentina continues to suffer from deepening market panic.

FT 30 August 2018

Populism is the true legacy of the global financial crisis


The ‘hard working classes’ so beloved of politicians were the victims of the crash

The process set in train by the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers has produced two big losers — liberal democracy and open international borders. 

The culprits, who include bankers, central bankers and regulators, politicians and economists, have shrugged off responsibility.

2018-08-29

The Myth of Secular Stagnation

There are many lessons to be learned as we reflect on the 2008 crisis, but the most important is that the challenge was – and remains – political, not economic: 

there is nothing that inherently prevents our economy from being run in a way that ensures full employment and shared prosperity. 

Secular stagnation was just an excuse for flawed economic policies. 

Joseph E. Stiglitz Project Syndicate 28 August 2018


Setting the Record Straight on Secular Stagnation
Sep 3, 2018 LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS


https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/response-to-stiglitz-attack-on-secular-stagnation-by-lawrence-h--summers-2018-09



Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken.





Carl A Hamilton: Liberalismens öppna tankevärld hade förvandlats till den vetenskapliga liberalismen.

På det ena området efter det andra har politikerna satsat på det extrema: från den ekonomiska politiken, till välfärden, försvaret och regleringen av invandringen. 

Samtliga områden har präglats av radikala omläggningar som slutat i misslyckanden och gjort att de styrande tappat kontrollen över händelseutvecklingen. 

Den fasta kronkursen skulle försvaras till det yttersta. Bakom de kategoriska utfästelserna dolde sig icke förvånande ett djupare motiv: Bildtregeringen avsåg att byta ekonomiskpolitisk regim. 

Carl A Hamilton DN 26 augusti 2018


Kronkrigarna från valutafronten firar Poltavaföreningen höll möte.

Carl A Hamilton
Aftonbladet 22/11 2002



Carl A Hamilton

Kronkursförsvaret









2018-08-28

Bankerna har endast runt 4 procent eget kapital i botten, resten måste de låna upp. Och om bankerna inte kan sätta om sina lån har vi en finanskris.


Fastighetsbolagen kan tvingas skriva ned värden och kan bli tvungna att sälja fastigheter, vilket ytterligare pressar ned priserna.

Samtidigt har runt 70 procent av bankernas lån gått till fastighetssektorn. Och får vi stora problem i fastighetsbranschen kan bankernas utländska långivare dra öronen åt sig. 

Det är det som är det läskiga med att bostadsutvecklarna vacklar.



”Sverige är på väg mot en bostadskrasch”

Myndigheter och politiker har ungefär ett år på sig att agera innan de tvingas ta hand om en finanskris. 

Göran Collert, Sverker Lerheden och Roland Petersson SvD 28 maj 2018



Europe’s banking union lacks the key element of deposit insurance

Without cutting the cord between sovereigns and banks, the so-called sovereign-bank doom loop, completion of the banking union is impossible.

Isabel Schnabel member of the German Council of Economic Experts FT 28 August 2018

Hushållens bostadslån uppgick i juli till totalt 3.216 miljarder kronor

2018-08-25

Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas believes Europe must be in a position to form a counterweight to the US

Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has written a commentary for the Handelsblatt newspaper on realigning the trans-Atlantic relationship, headlined "We will not allow the US to go over our heads."

Maas believes Europe must be in a position to form a counterweight to the US and act with sovereignty

In order to improve Europe's strategic position, Germany's top diplomat has called for the establishment of a European security and defense union.



Vad är det som har en flagga, en nationaldag, en nationalsång, en militärstyrka, ett parlament och en högsta domstol. En stat, naturligtvis. 

Vad är det mer en stat har? Jo, en valuta. Det är därför europas ledande politiker har infört euron. 

För att vara med om att rita om Europas karta, skapa ett nytt imperium, i Habsburgs efterföljd, som kan utmana USA, som vänstern hatar och högern föraktar.



Från Handels till historien – en resa sommaren 68

Ismerna var verkligare än den ”reellt existerande socialismen”. 

Den hösten fortsatte jag uppe hos universitetet mina studier i ekonomisk historia och ingen, inte heller jag, hade förstått att sommarens invasion i Prag var början till slutet för kommunismen i Europa.


Richard Swartz DN 25 augusti 2018


2018-08-24

Ingen börskrasch inom två år


Finansveteranen och företagsledaren Carl Bennet tror inte att nästa finanskris står för dörren. 


Men han säger att man ska vara försiktig.


SvD 24 augusti 2018

Greece will not escape debt servitude until the euro is destroyed


The original sin of the EU-IMF troika was to foist bailout loans on Greece – in violation of the IMF’s own rules – when it was already insolvent. 

The country needed debt cancellation of 50pc to restore viability, given that the cure of devaluation was blocked.

This was done entirely in order to save Europe’s banks and the euro at a time when the eurozone had no firewall against contagion and no functioning lender of last resort.


Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 22 August 2018

Är det modigt av Liberalerna att driva EU- och eurofrågan i valrörelsen, eller möjligen lite dumdristigt?


EU ligger inte ens på topp tio när väljarna får lista sina viktigaste frågor. 

Dessutom svarade 66 procent i SCB:s senaste undersökning att de skulle rösta nej till euron om det blev en ny folkomröstning.

Jan Björklund är noga med att påpeka att han absolut inte vill se ett federalt EU av amerikansk modell, men att ett viss mått av överstatlighet kan vara bra.

Det där med exakt årtal ska vi alltså inte bry oss om. Jan Björklund poängterar att det bara är på hemsidan det står angivet, inte i valmanifestet

SvD 23 augusti 2018


2018-08-22

Krasch, boom, bang – hur stor är risken för nästa finanskris ?

Ten years after Lehman collapse few lessons have been heeded

Rating agencies still wield huge influence and investment executives remain unaccountable

To be clear, nobody expects economic models to predict crises, future prices and recessions with total accuracy. But at least they should be able to explain the basic functioning of the economy.


Arturo Cifuentes FT 22 August 2018

2018-08-20

China and Europe's refusal to reduce their extravagant trade surpluses on U.S. trades


is becoming an unbearable theater of the absurd.

America's rising trade and budget deficits call for decisive action.

CNBC 20 August 2018

2018-08-13

The Prague Spring still haunts Europe


The human thirst for political rights, justice and national freedom is unquenchable


Tony Barber FT 13 August 2018

Turkey nears point of no return as lira crisis spreads to the banking system

Yields on five-year sovereign debt surged 47 basis points on Thursday to a crisis-high of 21.2pc.

Ambrose 9 August 2018



The chance of an inflation shock may be higher than you think


Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist for BCA Research revisited the 1970s for lessons relevant to today, and finds that some common assumptions about the decade are wrong.


Skapas eller förflyktigas värde när företag blåser upp sina egna börskurser?

(Retorisk fråga i bildtext)

Tittar man på de amerikanska börsföretagen så är deras investeringsnivåer de lägsta på 60 år. 

Snarare än att investera i framtida produktion eller forskning så köper de upp sina egna aktier, ett sätt att öka börsvärde och bonusar och därmed kunna plocka ut kortsiktiga vinster.

DN-ledare av Mattias Svensson 13 augusti 2018






2018-08-12

Tocqueville the most unusual member of the liberal pantheon.

Liberalism tends to be marinated in optimism to such an extent that it sometimes shades into naivety. 

Tocqueville believed that liberal optimism needs to be served with a side-order of pessimism. 


Far from being automatic, progress depends on wise government and sensible policy.


The Economist 9 August 2018

Why is macroeconomics so hard to teach?

That requires an intuitive feel for the subject. 

It is not enough to crank through the equations.

The Economist 9 August 2018

2018-08-11

Vi som barn läste Lyckoslanten har en lika romantisk som felaktig bild av banker

Idoga sparare satte in pengar på Sparbanken (numera Swedbank) som lånade ut pengarna till driftiga företagare i bygden mot god säkerhet.

Riktigt så är det inte.

Man skall först och främst skilja på inlåning och upplåning. 

Inlåning är på konton från bankens kunder.
Upplåning är på marknaden, typ 30 dagar, längre eller kortare.

Jag erinrade mig detta när jag läste att spanska banker hade lånat ut 83 miljarder, dollar, till låntagare i Turkiet.

De franska och italienska bankerna  har lånat ut 34 respektive 18 miljarder, dollar.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-10/erdogan-answers-lira-s-pleas-with-an-ottoman-slap

När Liran sjunker mot dollar blir dessa lån dyrare för låntagarna i Turkiet.

På ECB är man oroad. 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2018/08/turkish-lira-tumbles-further-as-crisis.html

Även vi i Sverige har anledning till oro.

Om utlänningar börjar bli nervösa över hur det står till i landet så kan bankerna få problem eftersom två tredjedelar av de pengar de lånar upp är utländsk valuta. 

Birgitta Forsberg, SvD Näringsliv 30 april 2018




Turkey: About half of the banking system’s deposits are in dollars or euros

Turks have traditionally held a large proportion of their savings in foreign currencies as protection against runaway inflation and bouts of currency weakness. 

About half of the banking system’s deposits are in dollars or euros, according to the latest regulatory data.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-10/turkish-banks-are-said-to-plan-meeting-with-regulator-saturday

2018-08-10

Turkish lira tumbles further as crisis mounts

ECB concerned about exposure of European banks to borrowers in Turkey

FT 10 August 2018



According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the key concern is the more than $130 billion exposure of European lenders to the Turkish non-bank private sector.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-10/european-stocks-drop-as-bbva-to-unicredit-plunge-on-turkey-fears

2018-08-09

Housing Bubble and Everything Bubble in One Simple Picture


Meanwhile, people keep faith in the Phillips' Curve. It's pathetic


Mish 6 July 2018

Why the world needs Biggles more than ever

Captain, Major and later Squadron Leader James Bigglesworth, DSO, DFC, MC, 

the most famous airman in English literature and surely a candidate for the greatest Briton of all time.


Telegraph 17 May 2008

Not a credit crunch yet, but the ground is shifting

Short-term interest rates are the tectonic plates of financial markets. 

They move slowly but have a nasty tendency to reveal buildings built on flimsy foundations.


Robin Wigglesworth 8 August 2018

2018-08-07

Goldman Sachs project that stock repurchases will reach $1 trillion this year, up 46% from 2017

1962 Ferrari 250 GTO

Margaret Thatcher hoppade inte och elefanten i rummet

Margaret Thatcher hoppade inte. Det gjorde däremot ledarna för Sveriges riksdagspartier, plus Feministiskt initiativ och minus Sverigedemokraterna, när de i helgen debatterade i RFSL:s regi.

Upplägget var pinsamt för alla inblandade. RFSL lät de ej inbjudna Sverigedemokraterna företrädas på scenen av en uppblåsbar elefant. 

Under debatten fick partiledarna ta ställning till ja- och nej-frågor genom att stå på led och vifta med varsin regnbågsflagga.

Att flera av dem såg djupt plågade ut förbättrade inte intrycket.


Elefanten i rummet är ett bildligt uttryck för något som är påtagligt för alla människor i en grupp, men som man undviker att prata om.[

Orsaken till att man håller tyst om "elefanten" kan vara att det skulle vara genant, förorsaka besvärliga diskussioner eller att ämnet är tabu.


2018-08-06

Buffett's $111 Billion Cash Pile Intensifies Buyback Debate

Under the buyback plan, both Buffett, who’s chairman and chief executive officer, and Vice Chairman Charles Munger have to find the price “below Berkshire’s intrinsic value, conservatively determined,”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/as-buffett-s-cash-hits-111-billion-buyback-debate-intensifies

2018-08-04

The End of the Global Housing Boom

After a years-long surge in global capitals, property prices are starting to head lower. 

From Sydney to Toronto, here’s a look at what’s ahead. 


Bloomberg 31 July 2018

2018-08-03

"I don't want to scare the public, but we've never had QE," Dimon said. "We've never had the reversal.

Jamie Dimon is chairman and chief executive officer of J.P. Morgan Chase.

CNBC 30 July 2018

– Marknaden för nyproducerade bostadsrätter har imploderat.

 
Det är en bubbla som håller på att spricka, men effekterna blir nog väldigt partiella.


Det som spräckte dåtidens bubbla var en överbelåning av amerikanska fastigheter, som började kollapsa sommaren 2007. 

I dag finns ingen liknande överbelåning på fastigheter, förutom i Sverige poängterar Peter Malmqvist



SvD 3/8 2018

2018-08-02

GAM It is highly unusual for asset managers to block investors from redeeming their money.

FT 2 August 2018


Finanskrisen och därmed eurokrisen tog sin början i Frankrike, när tre hedgefonder tillhöriga Frankrikes största bank, BNP Paribas, inställde betalningarna i augusti 2007.

Läs mer här




“It’s one of these wavy jet-stream patterns that’s causing all the crazy weather,”

Jennifer Francis, an atmospheric scientist at Rutgers, said.

The New Yorker 1 August 2018

https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/how-climate-change-contributed-to-this-summers-wildfires

2018-08-01

If the western world has seen populism jump when economic times are good

what on earth will happen when the next recession hits?


Gillian Tett FT 1 August 2018

We are seeing some extreme jet-stream behavior


Science will need time to study if this extra-hot summer is because of climate change or bad luck

The exact cause of why the blocking in the atmosphere got going this July might require a bit of study too

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-25/the-world-s-on-fire-blame-a-kink-in-the-jet-stream-the-climate

Hussman sees Nasdaq sinking 57%, Dow tumbling 69%


Hussman’s claim to fame includes forecasting the market collapses of 2000 and 2007-2008. 


Sue Chang MarketWatch July 31, 2018



2018-07-30

Credit issued to developing-economy borrowers excluding banks surged to $3.7 trillion BIS

Quantitative easing (QE) — undoubtedly the boldest policy experiment in the modern history of central banking.

Climate change is partly responsible, but the summer has also featured unusual jet stream activity, which is bringing the subtropical heat north

As the northern hemisphere endures record-breaking temperatures, scientists and meteorologists are looking at the possible causes. 

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/video/2018/jul/26/why-is-it-so-hot-video-explainer

In the summer of 1989 Poles peacefully dismantled the communist system that had blighted their country since the end of the second world war.

 Lech Walesa, founder of Solidarity and Poland’s president from 1990 to 1995, grasped what was at stake:

“It is easy to make fish soup from an aquarium with living goldfish, but just imagine what a challenge it is to try to make an aquarium with living goldfish out of fish soup. And this is precisely what we are trying to do.”

FT 30 July 2018

Eurokrisen, fisksoppan och elitens olidliga dumhet och varför en extern devalvering är bättre än en intern




2018-07-29

The jet stream forms a boundary between the cold north and the warmer south

This narrows the temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes, which is crucial because it is the temperature gradient between them that drives the jet stream wind

The jet stream forms a boundary between the cold north and the warmer south, but the lower temperature difference means the winds are now weaker. 

This means the jet stream meanders more, with big loops bringing warm air to the frozen north and cold air into warmer southern climes.

Furthermore, researchers say, the changes mean the loops can remain stuck over regions for weeks, rather than being blown westwards as in the past. 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/19/arctic-ice-melt-already-affecting-weather-patterns-where-you-live-right-now

2018-07-27

John Hussman On FAANGs


Investors should, but rarely do, anticipate the enormous growth deceleration that occurs once tiny companies in emerging industries become behemoths in mature industries. 


You can’t just look backward and extrapolate. 


In the coming years, investors should expect the revenue growth of the FAANG group to deteriorate toward a nominal growth rate of less than 10%, and gradually toward 4%

John Hussman via zerohedge 27 July 2018

While risk no longer sits in the banking system, it has not vanished.


It grows ever clearer that risk has been moved, primarily to the pension system.


John Authers FT 26 July 2018

Det är de unga som tvingas betala priset för bostadsrallyt


Vad känner unga vuxna när samma lön och anställning köper betydligt mindre bostad än för tidigare generationer? 

Mattias Svensson, Signerat DN 26 juli 2018

The jet stream we are currently experiencing is extremely weak

I en intervju i The Guardian lyfter klimatforskaren Dann Mitchell exempelvis fram svaga jetströmmar – starka vindar på mycket hög höjd – som en delförklaring till att värmen vägrar släppa taget om norra halvklotet.

https://www.svd.se/precis-detta-har-forskningen-varnat-for-i-artionden

“The jet stream we are currently experiencing is extremely weak and, as a result, areas of atmospheric high pressure are lingering for long periods over the same place,”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/heatwave-northen-hemisphere-uk-algeria-canada-sweden-whats-the-cause




2018-07-26

IMF: Higher-than-desirable current account balances prevail in countries such as Germany and Sweden — as well as in China

Higher-than-desirable current account balances prevail in northern Europe—in countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden—as well as in parts of Asia—in economies like China, Korea, and Singapore.

While the current configuration of global excess imbalances does not pose an imminent danger, we project that, under planned policies, these imbalances will grow over the medium term, eventually posing a risk to global stability.

Maurice Obstfeld IMF 24 July 2018

Why It Might Be A Good Time To Revisit Ray Dalio's 1937 Analog

The correlation between the S&P 500 over the past four years and the four years leading up to the 1937 top is roughly 94%. 

As I have suggested in the past, price analogs are not very valuable on their own but when the fundamentals also parallel closely they become far more interesting.


via zerohedge 26 July 2018

2018-07-25

China’s debt threat: time to rein in the lending boom

“If something can’t go on forever, it will stop.” This statement by Herbert Stein, chairman of the US council of economic advisers under Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, tells us that debt cannot grow faster than an economy forever.

That is going to be true for China, too.

2018-07-24

Pakistan

After four devaluations in seven months and a forecasted financing gap of about $16bn over the next three years, Pakistan is facing another balance of payments crisis.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/07/24/1532410200000/Belt-and-Road--or-debt-trap-/

2018-07-22

Soaring food and energy costs are painful, but falling home prices could mean even bigger worries. CNN May 9, 2008

 Even if financial firms avoid another crisis along the lines of the near-meltdowns earlier this year of Bear Stearns and Countrywide (CFC, Fortune 500), some economists say problems in the financial sector are only beginning to be felt on Main Street.

"The real economy hasn't yet taken the hit," says Northern Trust economist Asha Bangalore.

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Finanskrisen 

Roubini For the first time in a decade, the biggest risks are now stagflationary (slower growth and higher inflation).


These risks include the negative supply shock that could come from a trade war; higher oil prices, owing to politically motivated supply constraints; and inflationary domestic policies in the US.


Nouriel Roubini Project Syndicate 18 July 2018

Because the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the Earth, that temperature difference is getting smaller

Jennifer A. Francis, an Arctic researcher at Rutgers University.

Temperature differences between the Arctic and the lower latitudes help create the jet stream. 

Because the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the Earth, that temperature difference is getting smaller. 

As a result, the jet stream is getting weaker and shifting its behavior, sending cold air south from the Arctic and pumping warm air north.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/23/climate/arctic-ice-maximum.html