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2022-05-26

View, or perhaps hope, that the US economy is either at or near peak inflation

 Owners' Equivalent Rent

The CPI rent index will likely keep moving higher as the year goes on. There's still an element of catch-up in the CPI data just given the way the index is constructed. The debate among inflation forecasters is whether it finishes this year closer to say 6% YoY or 7%-7.5%.

You can't say that you "understand the hardship" that inflation is causing and then tell people that if you strip out food and energy, inflation's coming down.

Joe Weisenthal Bloomberg 25 maj 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-25/q-a-omair-sharif-on-why-inflation-may-still-not-have-peaked


2022-05-25

Fed Minutes agreement on need for further half-point increases in June and July

 Mr. Powell last week laid out a relatively high bar to slow down rate increases. 

“This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,” he said. “We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we’ll keep going.”

WSJ 25 May 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-show-growing-urgency-for-tighter-monetary-policy-11653501768


Regeringen inkallar stabilitetsrådet

Finansmarknadsminister Max Elger (S) kallar Riksbankschefen Stefan Ingves, Finansinspektionens chef Erik Thedéen och Riksgäldens chef Karolina Ekholm till ett möte i det finansiella stabilitetsrådet.

Birgitta Forsberg SvD 25 maj 2022

https://www.svd.se/a/MLeQjR/regeringen-inkallar-finansiella-stabilitetsradet


https://www.sou.gov.se/finansiella-stabilitetsradet/


Finansinspektionen: Klarna är inte en systemviktig bank | SvD





Fed Searches for the Magic Number to Cool a Red-Hot U.S. Housing Market

The central bank must decide on an interest rate that will cap sky-high price growth without triggering a painful economic slowdown

America’s red-hot housing market threatens to make the Fed’s job tougher. With so many buyers competing for so few available properties, home prices in the U.S. rose 18.8% last year

Homeowners also have an incentive to stay put. Many don’t see where they can afford to move. 

In April, the monthly mortgage payment on the typical home jumped to $1,475, assuming a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment, according to Zillow Group Inc. 

That is up 34% since December and 53% from April 2021.

WSJ 24 May 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-searches-for-the-magic-number-to-cool-a-red-hot-u-s-housing-market-11653402996


When the Federal Reserve set out to cool the economy and slow inflation in the past, it counted on the housing market to do much of the work. 

By raising interest rates, the central bank made mortgages more expensive and trimmed the number of buyers. This time, America’s red-hot housing market threatens to make the Fed’s job tougher. 




With so many buyers competing for so few available properties, home prices in the U.S. rose 18.8% last year

REAL TIME ECONOMICS

Börsen 25 maj 2022

 


Stockholmsbörsen stängde på dagslägsta
Trots en inledning som såg positiv ut stängde indexen på minus 
”Det är väldigt volatilt”, sa Anders Rudolfsson, mäklarchef på DNB, om börsläget.
Di 25 maj 2022







Wolf on Stagflation

 Are we moving into a new era of higher inflation and weak growth, similar to the stagflation of the 1970s. 

If so, what might this mean?

The US and other high-income economies experienced almost a decade of high inflation, unstable growth and weak stock markets. 

Excess demand causes supply shocks to turn into sustained inflation, as people struggle to maintain their real incomes and central banks seek to sustain real demand. 

This then leads to stagflation, as people lose their faith in stable and low inflation and central banks lack the courage needed to restore it.

At present, markets do not expect any such outcome. 

The growth of nominal demand is vastly higher than interest rates.

 Inflation will fall, but maybe only to 4 per cent or so. Higher inflation would become a new normal. The Fed would then need to act again or have to abandon its target, destabilising expectations and losing credibility. 

If the 1970s taught us anything, it is that the time to throttle an inflationary upsurge is at its beginning, when expectations are still on the policymakers’ side. 

Martin Wolf FT 24 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/734cb1ff-9dc1-4a67-a567-c2f681f18a77


2022-05-24

Realräntefond vs OMX i år

 


Börsen 24 maj 2022

 

En dag


I år





Riksbanken om finansiell stabilitet

 En förutsättning för att ekonomin ska fungera och växa är att det finansiella systemet är stabilt och fungerar väl.

Men systemet är känsligt eftersom dess centrala delar är sårbara. Exempelvis finansierar bankerna sin verksamhet på kort löptid men lånar ut på längre löptider, vilket gör dem beroende av allmänhetens och marknadens förtroende. 

Om detta går förlorat kan allvarliga problem snabbt uppstå.


Riksbanken: Hoten mot den finansiella stabiliteten har ökat

Riksbanken stöder Finansinspektionens ambition att i närtid fortsätta höja det kontracykliska buffertvärdet för att stärka motståndskraften i banksektorn och anser vidare att det är viktigt att åtgärda bristerna på den svenska marknaden för företagsobligationer samt öka användningen av fullt ut transaktionsbaserade referensräntor.

DI/Direkt 24 maj 2022 

https://www.di.se/live/riksbanken-hoten-mot-den-finansiella-stabiliteten-har-okat/


Riksbankens rapport Finansiell stabilitet

https://www.riksbank.se/sv/press-och-publicerat/nyheter-och-pressmeddelanden/pressmeddelanden/2022/hoten-mot-den-finansiella-stabiliteten-har-okat/

https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/fsr/svenska/2022/220514/finansiell-stabilitetsrapport-2022_1.pdf


”Det är osäkert hur ekonomins aktörer kan hantera högre räntor ”, skriver Riksbanken.

Ett ”dåligt scenario”, med högre boräntor och högre priser än väntat för energi och andra levnadskostnader samtidigt som bostadspriserna faller brant, hotar att bli ”mycket kännbart för många högt skuldsatta hushåll” och tvinga dem till kraftigt minskad konsumtion, varnar Riksbanken.

Nils Åkesson DI 24 maj 2022

https://www.di.se/analys/riksbanken-pekar-ut-storsta-hoten-mycket-kannbart/

Nollräntan och Greklandskrisen

PIIGS-krisen (Portugal, Italien, Irland, Grekland och Spaniens skuldproblem), eurokrisen – kärt barn har många namn.

Den slog till med full kraft under vårvintern år 2011, precis när riskaptiten på allvar hade repat sig efter finanskrisen 2008–2010. 

Börserna bottnade i början av 2009 (efter att ha prissatt jordens undergång) och steg sedan brant till april 2011 då framför allt Greklands skuldproblematik blev uppenbar. 

Det var en existentiell kris 2011–2012 och det var ganska enkelt att måla upp bilden av en katastrof som skulle få hela den monetära unionen på fall.

Slut på krisen när den dåvarande ECB-chefen Mario Draghi under sommaren 2012 deklarerade att man är redo att göra ”whatever it takes” 

Sedan år 2012 har vi inte brytt oss särskilt mycket om skulder, framför allt eftersom skuldbördan inte har spelat någon större roll när räntan plockades bort. 

De enorma skulderna bakbinder den europeiska centralbanken och därmed Riksbanken. Varken Grekland eller något annat land klarar av särskilt höga räntor. 

De höga skulderna gör paradoxalt nog att räntechocken uteblir, till gagn för både Grekland och svenska bolåntagare. 

Henrik Mitelman DI 24 maj 2022

https://www.di.se/analys/darfor-skanker-skuldberget-hopp/

 Lysande.


Minusräntorna beror på försvaret av euron

Rolf Englund 21 augusti 2019

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/08/minusrantorna-beror-pa-forsvaret-av.html


Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank will support the economy “for as long as it takes.”

CNBC  22 september 2020

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/09/federal-reserve-chairman-jerome-powell.html


RE: Slutsats: Om dagens problem beror på den långvariga nollräntan och nollräntan beror på euron så beror dagens problem på euron och dess apologeter.

Apologet [-ge:ʹt] (grekiska apologēʹtēs ’försvarare’), försvarare, framför allt av en religiös tro. 
Källa Nationalencyklopedin




‘I feel like I am reliving the summer of 2008.’

 Strategist David Rosenberg sees bear market sinking the S&P 500 to 3,300

MarketWatch 23 May 2022 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-feel-like-i-am-reliving-the-summer-of-2008-strategist-david-rosenberg-sees-bear-market-sinking-the-s-p-500-to-3-300-11653333623


Rescue From Recession Won’t Be So Easy This Time

With inflation raging, the famous ‘Fed put’ to save the day with cheap money might not be available.

For more than 30 years we have become used to a reassuringly familiar pattern in business cycles. 

As the economy expands, the Fed raises interest rates to curb inflationary pressures. Eventually some combination of credit squeeze or inventory over-accumulation then precipitates a downturn in the economy. 

The Fed cuts rates—and in recent cycles, supplied the added sugar of quantitative easing through asset purchases—and soon there’s enough free money to revive the animal spirits and get demand moving again.

Gerard Baker WSJ 23 May 2022 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rescue-from-recession-wont-be-easy-inflation-fiscal-crisis-401k-baby-formula-housing-gas-prices-federal-reserve-biden-11653337995


2022-05-23

Börsen 23 maj 2022

 




6 months



It would be too optimistic to expect imminent Ukrainian EU membership

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and Germany’s foreign affairs minister, Annalena Baerbock, have signaled that they would support such a move, but they both know that at least one of the 27 EU member states would veto full membership for Kyiv.

WSJ 22 May 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-europe-hedges-its-support-for-ukraine-russia-crude-oil-lng-gas-imports-exports-kyiv-war-eu-membership-zelensky-putin-germany-france-poland-11653247453?st=zxu83d0xzek6hko&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink




ECB Likely to Exit Negative Rates by End of September

Net bond buying set to end ‘very early’ in third quarter

Governing Council has been building to raise the deposit rate from its current level of -0.5% in July. Lagarde’s comment suggests two increases of 25 basis points each at the July and September policy meetings. 


Lagarde reiterated that the ECB would also be able to “design and deploy new instruments” to make sure that monetary policy is properly transmitted through the euro area. 
(RE: Saving Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal)

Bloomberg 23 May 2022



In 2022, “extreme vigilance” means getting rates back up to zero within four months.

That is still a lenient monetary policy by any definition

John Authers Bloomberg 24 maj 2022



ECB höjer räntan i juli för första gången sedan 2011

Olof Manner, senior rådgivare på Swedbank, noterar att styrräntan i dag är minus 0,5 procent och inflationen 7,5 procent.

Viktor Munkhammar DI 18 maj 2022



År det så hemskt att vi faktiskt inte vet hur vi skall undvika att den nuvarande ekonomin byggd på en allt högre belåning av stigande huspriser skall kunna brytas och ersättas med något annat, vad det nu kan vara?
Rolf Englund 8 juli 2014


Global power grids are about to face their biggest test in decades

Summer in much of the Northern Hemisphere is a typical peak for electricity use. air conditioners

When plants on the Texas power grid failed this month, wholesale power prices in Houston briefly jumped above the $5,000 a megawatt-hour price cap, surging 22 times higher than the average cos

Bloonberg 22 May 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-05-22/summer-blackouts-bring-deadly-risk-as-heatwaves-grip-the-globe


Air conditioners units in operation worldwide could jump from nearly 2 billion today to 5.6 billion by 2050

Deutsche Welle 25 January 2022

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/01/air-conditioners-units-in-operation.html


Is The Economy Headed For a Soft Landing, Stagflation, or Crash?

 The discussion about a target “neutral” nominal Federal Funds rate is fatuous: As long as real interest rates are negative there is no effective demand restraint emanating from monetary policy… except, perhaps, via asset prices. 

And here then is the central conundrum for the Fed. 

If the rise in rates and quantitative tightening is too slow, it will not constrain the inflation of goods and services prices. 

On the other hand, if tightening is rapid enough to constrain demand, it might result in a collapse in a swathe of asset prices, and financial turbulence that will move from Wall Street to Main Street and elicit a sharp recession. 

My bet for the present is on scenario three: stagflation. But... things could get worse.

Leslie Lipschitz Barrons 23 May 2022

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/fed-economy-soft-landing-stagflation-crash-51653086991?mod=mw_latestnews


Investors are actually positioned for a relatively smooth landing scenario

Bridgewater Associates’ Greg Jensen, the co-chief investment officer of the world’s biggest hedge fund, warned of a toxic brew for asset prices as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and unwinds its balance sheet to deal with the highest inflation in decades.

Bloomberg 23 May 2020

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-23/bridgewater-s-greg-jensen-warns-markets-are-still-overly-optimistic



Investors’ expectations that interest rates will not rise much may be very misguided

This time when growth slows, inflation will in all likelihood still be too high for the Fed to stop tightening.

The Fed seems to be hoping that inflation will fall back to its 2 per cent target despite policy interest rates remaining negative after taking into account inflation.

Inflation has asserted itself as a major social and political issue for the first time in more than 40 years. 

Sonal Desai FT 23 May 2022


The writer is chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income

The spread between Italy’s 10-year bond yield and Germany’s

has climbed as high as 2 percentage points in recent weeks

Italy relies heavily on Russia for its energy

Optimism seen at start of 2022 is fading fast 

FT 23 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/8dd69dbb-b476-4192-9db2-944f7e937f8f


How shadow banks threaten the global economy

 The constant flow of easy money out of central banks has fed serial crises for decades.

Shadow banks manage $63tn in financial assets — up from $30tn a decade ago.

The even bigger risk is that an accident in the markets settles the debate over how hard Fed tightening will hit the real economy.

 Ruchir Sharma FT 23 May 2022 

https://www.ft.com/content/d22ec352-a4a4-4f4c-832a-cb05af5110f1


The world is in a debt trap

No matter what happens to near-term inflation and growth, the world is too indebted for rates to rise much higher.

Ruchir Sharma FT 22 November 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/the-world-is-in-debt-trap.html


These structural changes in the way finance works may mean that markets are more prone to bouts of erratic trading and nervous breakdowns.

The Economst editorial 11 May 2022

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/one-question-is-whether-market-slump.html


The shadow banking system and The Volcker Rule

https://www.internetional.se/billgrossoctober1.htm


2022-05-22

This Will Make 1970’s Look Like NOTHING

The Money GPS 18 May 2022

(3) ⚠️ This Will Make 1970’s Look Like NOTHING ⚠️ - YouTube


Once Every Hundred Years This Happens 

The Money GPS 22 May 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecYsFORCr2E


Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chair, January 3, 2010

 - Having experienced the damage that asset price bubbles can cause, we must be especially vigilant in ensuring that the recent experiences are not repeated.


Lundell konstaterar: Vita män står inte högt i kurs

 Vad vill Ulf Lundell? undrar Ann Heberlein.

https://www.svd.se/a/WjGeza/vad-vill-ulf-lundell-ann-heberlein-laser-vardagar-6-och-7


My concern is that this time could be more like 1973-1974

 The risk is a series of bear-market rallies that don’t last, hurting dip buyers and further damaging investor confidence

That confidence is already weak.

In March 2020 that was enough, because central bankers and politicians were frightened, too. When they stepped in (Senate Approves Roughly $2 Trillion in Coronavirus Relief) it helped investors see that, with government support, companies could make it through.

This time central bankers are scared not by falling markets or the economic outlook, but by inflation. 

My concern is that this time could be more like 1973-1974. 

1974 the Fed kept raising rates even as a recession took hold because it was running to catch up with inflation. The result was a horrible bear market interspersed with soul-destroying temporary rallies, two of 10%, two of 8% and two of 7%, each snuffed out. 

It took 20 months before the low was reached

If inflation comes down, the Fed won’t need to raise rates as much as it has indicated

In really simple terms, though, after stocks more than doubled in two years, a market fall of more than 20% seems entirely plausible.

James Mackintosh WSJ 22 May 2022 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/conditions-are-ripe-for-a-deep-bear-market-11653166864


Megadrought’ threatens water and power supplies to millions in US

Water levels in two largest reservoirs at record lows as study says southwestern drought worst in 1,200 years

A US power regulator this week warned that a big swath of the US was at risk of blackouts, partly as a result of drought conditions curtailing hydroelectric supplies.

FT 21 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/9f00dfff-3a44-483f-9d5a-f58db7806046


Parts of Spain are experiencing their hottest May ever with temperatures of more than 40C in some places, according to the state weather agency, AEMET.

BBC 21 May 2022

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61533719


Englunds lag 3 (Inflation and the housing market)

Räntan (A) är vad som behövs för att stoppa inflationen.

Räntan (B) är den som gör att bostadsmarknaden kollapsar.

Om A är större än B har vi ett stort problem.


The interest rate (A) is what is needed to stop inflation.

The interest rate (B) is the one that causes the housing market to collapse.

If A is higher than B, we have a big problem.



Inflation och handelsbalans. Englunds lag 2,0.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/04/inflation-och-handelsbalans-englunds.html


Englunds lag 1

Har man sagt A, måste man säga B, och har man sagt B är det svårt att säga att A var fel.

17 mars 1999

https://www.internetional.se/eso99.htm#lagen


Englund's Q 

How come that unemployment is rising when the recession is over?

It is the productivity, Stupid

For employment to rise GDP must increase more than Productivity (P), of course

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2009/12/englunds-q-how-come-that-unemployment.html


2022-05-20

“Are we headed for stagflation?”

 It depends on their definition of the term.

If it to mean a period of rising unemployment combined with inflation that’s still too high, the answer is that there’s a very good chance that we’ll suffer from that malady for at least a few months. 

But if they’re referring to something like the extreme pain we suffered to close out the 1970s, it looks unlikely.

1979 to ’80 The Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, responded with drastically tighter monetary policy, leading to a recession and a sharp rise in unemployment

Now look at the period from 2007 to the fall of 2008, just before the demise of Lehman Brothers. 

 While there was a severe recession — still generally known as the Great Recession — it had nothing to do with squeezing inflation out of the economy and everything to do with the fallout from a severe financial crisis.

In short, inflation doesn’t seem to be entrenched; 2022 isn’t 1980.

We’re probably headed for a period of weakening labor markets while inflation is still elevated, and many commentators will surely proclaim that we’re experiencing stagflation.

When people hear “stagflation,” most think of the late 1970s and early ’80s — but there’s no evidence that we’re facing anything comparable now.

Paul Krugman NYT 20 May 2022

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/20/opinion/stagflation-inflation-economy.html


Stagflation Is Sexy. It May Also Be Unlikely

Stagflation fears may be overdone.

Inflation targeting is the wrong policy for central banks.

Mark Gilbert Bloomberg 20 maj 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-20/stagflation-is-sexy-it-may-also-be-unlikely





        

Börsen 20 maj 2022

 



The S&P 500 rallied all the way back from a 2.3% drop .

It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome




Stephanie Kelton On MMT and Today’s High Inflation

We spoke with Stephanie Kelton, one of the foremost MMT economists and the author of the best-selling book “The Deficit Myth” to get her take on the macro environment, and what MMT can contribute to today's debate. 

Transcripts have been lightly edited for clarity.

Bloomberg 9 maj 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/transcript-stephanie-kelton-on-mmt-and-today-s-high-inflation

 

Don’t count on Fed to ride to the rescue of a faltering stock market -- at least not yet

 That’s not encouraging for investors betting on the imminent exercise of a “Fed put” -- in which the central bank alters policy to prop up equity markets after a sharp decline. 

Bloomberg Economics Says...

“I think the Fed welcomes it. The stock market has to decline a lot more -- double the current drop -- before it will get close to wiping out the stock gains during the pandemic. This sounds callous, but declining stocks will get more people to come out of early retirement.”

--Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist

Bloomberg 19 May 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/fed-plans-for-half-point-hikes-won-t-be-shaken-by-stocks-rout


If you have only been in markets for, say, 15 years, 

you are seeing the collapse of everything that you have been told is true and have also observed to be true about markets.

Bonds prices rising in the bad times. Mostly when things look tricky in equity markets there is a reason (or central banks at least manage to find one) to cut interest rates to sort things out.

The only time this can’t happen is when inflation is already obviously out of control — and no amount of fretting about market crashes and looming recessions can allow central banks to even begin to look like they aren’t fully focused on having a go (however fruitless it may be) at bringing it back under control.

Merryn Somerset Webb FT 20 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/caf34f2c-f826-4015-ac2e-cfaac7429a8e

US market is more overvalued than in 1929, 1973 and 2007
Merryn Somerset Webb FT 28 December 2021


Lower share prices make people’s portfolios shrink, they feel less well off, and they are less likely to buy stuff

That is exactly what the Fed wants. 

It needs share prices to fall enough to influence behavior, which means that policy makers need this to turn into a true bear market, and not like one of the 20%-ish declines that were followed by rescues and resumed exuberance.

John Authers Bloomberg 20 maj 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-20/a-stocks-rescue-is-the-last-thing-the-federal-reserve-wants


“There is no market put, and I think we’re all waking up to that fact now,”

MarketWatch 19 May 2022 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/there-is-no-market-put-and-i-think-were.html


But I think that the Fed will lose its nerve.

The inflation will go on.

Rolf  Englund 20 May 2022



The coming food catastrophe

The Economist editorial 19 May 2022

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/05/19/the-coming-food-catastrophe


Mercedes-Benz 300 SLR 1955

 En Mercedes-Benz 300 SLR såldes nyligen av RM Sotheby´s för 135 miljoner euro, alltså cirka 1,4 miljarder kronor, i en affär som firman hävdar gör bilen till den dyraste någonsin att auktioneras ut.

Modellen designades av Rudolf Uhlenhaut 

DI 20 maj 2022

https://www.di.se/bil/mercedes-sald-for-1-4-miljarder-kronor/


The car was based on the company’s successful W 196 R Grand Prix car, which won two World Championships with driver Juan Manuel Fangio. 

Mercedes-Benz said it will donate the proceeds to create a fund for scholarships and educational research into the environment and decarbonization.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/mercedes-benz-300-slr-uhlenhaut-coupe-sells-at-auction-for-143-million.html


Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Källenius said the scholarship fund would allow more people from around the world to follow in the footsteps of the car's creator, Rudolf Uhlenhaut.

https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/mercedes-confirms-200-million-sale-of-300-slr-uhlenhaut-coupe


Company design chief Rudolf Uhlenhaut, architect of both the 300 SLR racer and the hybrids, appropriated one of the leftover mules as his personal car. Capable of approaching 290 km/h (180 mph), the Uhlenhaut Coupé was by far the fastest road car in the world in its day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_300_SLR


Mercedes-Benz Smashes Ferrari's Classic Car Record

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/-142-million-mercedes-benz-300-slr-uhlenhaut-coupe-smashes-ferrari-record





2022-05-19

What if higher interest rates and a recession don’t tame inflation?

 The next few months could be ugly if inflation fails to drop to tolerable levels

The lesson from the 1970s is not encouraging.

This continued until central banks, most notably the Volcker Fed, engineered their own recession, raising interest rates sufficiently to put millions of people out of work.

From an investor point of view, this was the worst of all worlds — countercyclical inflation (stagflation)

Dario Perkins MarketWatch 19 May 2022

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-worst-of-all-worlds-for-investors-what-if-higher-interest-rates-and-a-recession-dont-tame-inflation-11652968911


Den superlätta räntepolitiken har gjort sitt, menar chefen för BIS – "centralbankernas bank".

Fortsatt lågräntepolitik hotar att bygga upp nya obalanser, varnar han.

DI 24 juni 2013. Ja 2013.

https://www.di.se/artiklar/2013/6/24/bis-chefens-skarpa-varning/


Stefan Ingves, Viktor Munkhammar och Centralbankernas konspiration

Headline inflation är nu hög och svider i konsumenternas plånböcker. Alla vet att nu är det inflation. 

Se där ett gyllene tillfälle för centralbankerna att höja räntan och därmed sätta stopp för den långvariga skuldökningen hos hushåll och företag.


Yellen cites ‘stagflationary effects’ in a warning ahead of a meeting of leaders of seven wealthy nations

Earlier this week, Ben Bernanke raised the possibility of stagflation in an interview published in the New York Times. 


“Even under the benign scenario, we should have a slowing economy,” he said. “And inflation’s still too high but coming down. So there should be a period in the next year or two where growth is low, unemployment is at least up a little bit and inflation is still high.”



Ben Bernanke says the U.S. economy, for the first time since the 1970s, could be heading toward a period of stagflation

Bernanke told DealBook, in an exclusive interview with Andrew ahead of Bernanke’s new book. 

Bernanke says backing away from a 2 percent inflation target would be a mistake. “In everyday life, we judge the credibility of promises more by the reputations of the promise-makers than by the exact words they use,” 

The book, “21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve From the Great Inflation to Covid-19,” 


Did inflation targeting fail?  

Martin Wolf m fl



Börsen 19 maj 2022

 





Börsen uppvisar just nu den största börsnedgången realt sett sedan 1974 







How climate is making Australia more unliveable

 Nowhere is this a bigger issue than in Queensland. It is home to almost 40% of the 500,000 homes projected to be effectively uninsurable.

Queensland has been ravaged by floods in recent months. In February, the state capital Brisbane had more than 70% of its average yearly rainfall in just three days.

BBC 19 May 2020

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-61432462


Welcome to Queensland, Australia

“There is no market put, and I think we’re all waking up to that fact now,”

The so-called Federal Reserve put option, which is shorthand for the belief the U.S. central bank will rush in to rescue tanking markets — an approach that has been denied by previous Fed chairs.

“Restoring price stability is an unconditional need. It is something we have to do,” Powell said in an interview Tuesday during the Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything festival. “There could be some pain involved,” Powell added.

The Nasdaq Composite could plunge 75% from peak, S&P 500 skid 45% from its top, warns Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd.

MarketWatch 19 May 2022 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-summer-of-pain-the-nasdaq-composite-could-plunge-75-from-peak-s-p-500-skid-45-from-its-top-warns-guggenheims-scott-minerd-11652901040?mod=home-page


What just happened?

The S&P 500, the world’s most tracked index, suffered a Wednesday fall of more than 4%, its worst day in two years. In doing so it set a new closing low for the selloff that began at the turn of the year. 

It’s now down 18.7% from its peak.

All of this took place with no obvious big news to drive it. So how come?

To be clear, this selloff is NOT about rising fears of inflation, but about rising fears of the consequences if inflation is brought under control. Doing that could hurt. 


The difference between yields on inflation-protected and fixed-income bonds, have also been testing the 3% level. In the case of the 10-year breakeven, that level was briefly passed a couple of times in April, but it has been lower than that since.

It’s too soon to say that the high is in, but the inflation-linked market is at least pausing for thought. The narrative motivating them would be that the Fed will choke off inflation much earlier than it now expects

John Authers Bloomberg 19 maj 2022 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-19/target-rout-feeds-fearful-crisis-symmetry-across-markets


2022-05-18

Computer driven funds do high speed trading

 This shift began a couple of decades ago. Today’s markets can move faster than a human can react.

Another shift has been the degree to which passive investing through index funds and algorithmic trading through various quant funds have come to eclipse retail investing and dominate trading. 

A consequence of this is that to some degree it has mooted individual stock picking because when investors move in or out of index funds, the managers have to buy or sell the stocks held on a pro rata basis and not on individual merit.

Naked Capitalism 18May 2022

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/05/how-the-options-tail-has-come-to-wag-the-market-dog.html


The neutral rate, where price pressures cool and output is near capacity, cannot be measured, only estimated

It is also a moving target that changes over time — before 2008, it was thought to be about 5 per cent in advanced economies.

Fed officials think it is now between 2 per cent and 3 per cent, when inflation is at 2 per cent.

FT 18 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/d2417703-10d3-4845-82fa-42616832444b


If underlying inflation remains high, reaching neutral will require the Fed to take rates much higher than 2% to 3%

Bill Dudley Bloomberg 11 maj 2022

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/a-soft-landing-possible-but-unlikely.html

 

Sveriges tre största fastighetsmagnater uppkallade till Finansmarknadsministern Max Elger

 Deras bolag har tillgångar på motsva­ran­de mer än 10 procent av landets BNP.

Nu får de komma till finansdepartementet, fastighetsmiljardärerna Erik Selin, Ilija Batljan och Rutger Arnhult. 

Alla av årgång 1967.

De bolag som de är vd:ar för och huvudägare i – Balder, Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden respektive Castellum – är tre av Sveriges största noterade fastighetsbolag, sett till fastighetsvärde.

Birgitta Forsberg SvD 14 maj 2022

https://www.svd.se/a/ALnnax/minister-kraver-svar-klarar-sbb-castellum-och-balder-hojda-rantor


ECB höjer räntan i juli för första gången sedan 2011

 Olof Manner, senior rådgivare på Swedbank, noterar att styrräntan i dag är minus 0,5 procent och inflationen 7,5 procent.

”Det är bara en av dem som är lätt att ändra.”

Viktor Munkhammar DI 18 maj 2022

”Marknaden har haft mer rätt än centralbankerna” (di.se)


Lagarde Says ECB Is ‘Very Unlikely’ to Hike Rates Next Year

Bloomberg 3 november 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/lagarde-says-ecb-is-very-unlikely-to.html


Börsen 18 maj 2022



 

Buzz of a 1980s-Style Plaza Accord

 Through this 1985 agreement, major nations drove currency down

The dollar’s skyrocketing rise has some contemplating a rare, if not unthinkable, action: major nations agreeing to manipulate the US currency until it falls.

Through that agreement, France, Japan, the UK, US and West Germany agreed to weaken the dollar -- a stance taken out of a belief that the dollar’s huge move higher was damaging the global economy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/surging-dollar-stirs-markets-buzz-of-a-1980s-style-plaza-accord


Plaza Accord

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/04/us-trade-deficit-which-has-returned-to.html




Donald Trump briefly owned the Plaza--hence his cameo appearance giving directions to Macaulay Culkin in Home Alone 2:

Lost in New York set in--where else--the New York Plaza.


John Connally, when Treasury secretary in President Richard Nixon’s cabinet, famously told his European counterparts in 1971 that the dollar “is our currency but your problem”

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/06/powells-dollar-chinas-problem-and.html


Big falls, not only in the price but also in the valuation

One example: Microsoft has dropped from 34 times estimated 12-month forward earnings to 24 times since the start of the year—even as predicted earnings have risen. 

Something similar has happened to the S&P 500 as a whole, where the forward price-to-earnings ratio is down from 22 to 18, while Wall Street has lifted its forecasts for earnings.

James Mackintosh WSJ 18 May 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-looms-but-markets-havent-got-the-message-11652866209


Det genomsnittliga p/e-talet är 27, mätt på nästkommande års vinst. 

Allt över 20 brukar anses som mycket högt.

SvD 11 juni 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/06/det-finns-risk-for-bakslag-sager-maria.html


The cyclically adjusted p/e (CAPE), a measure created by economist Robert Shiller, “now stands over 27

has been exceeded only in the 1929 mania, the 2000 tech mania, and the 2007 housing and stock bubble,”

MarketWatch 20 December 2016

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-cyclically-adjusted-pe-cape-measure.html



Global Recession?

The blow to real incomes – and thus to consumer spending – from higher energy and food prices has been so large that central banks ought to think twice about their newfound hawkishness. 

Fed would do well to consider the reduction in real (inflation-adjusted) disposable incomes in the US. It has been significant, and the strong tightening of financial conditions may have already sown the seeds for an economic downturn soon.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-russia-ukraine-fed-tightening-could-mean-global-recession-by-jim-o-neill-2022-05

Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK treasury minister, is a member of the Pan-European Commission on Health and Sustainable Development.


What is the purpose of monetary policy in today’s economy?

Should we still worry about government debt levels, or have we discovered (by some fluke) that we never needed to worry about this? 

Jim O’Neill Project Syndicate 9 December 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/what-is-purpose-of-monetary-policy-in.html

Swedbank tror att prisuppgången på bostadsmarknaden nu bromsar in och att prisökningen planar ut

”Vi tror att prisuppgången på bostadsmarknaden nu bromsar in och att prisökningen planar ut under andra halvåret i år och vi räknar med ungefär oförändrade priser nästa år. 

DI 11 maj 2022

https://www.di.se/nyheter/bankerna-ser-boprisfall-i-korten-storsta-nedgangen-pa-manga-manga-ar/


Katarina Lundahl, chefsekonom på fackförbundet Unionen, räknar med att inflationstakten sjunker snabbt från och med slutet av 2022 eller i början av 2023.

”Eftersom inflationen börjar falla tillbaka kommer Riksbanken kunna avsluta räntehöjningscykeln under första delen av 2023

 ”Sverige har en stabil lönebildning med lägre risk för pris- och lönespiral än många andra länder. Vår lönebildningsmodell är förankrad i inflationsmålet, vilket lägger grunden för en stabil löneutveckling i oroliga tider. Riksbanken har också tydligt visat att de håller fokus på inflationsmålet”.

Joakim Goksör SvD/TT 18 maj 2022

https://www.svd.se/a/oWg7oB/unionen-sverige-klarar-sig-battre-an-befarat

 

Harry Flam tror att bostadspriserna långsamt sjunker eller bara planar ut

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2017/11/harry-flam-tror-att-bostadspriserna.html


Bubblor planar inte ut

Englund 2014

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2014/01/bubblor-planar-inte-ut.html


5 stages of bear-market grief

Bear-market psychology follows a progression that is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief — denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. 

Here’s how they manifest in the stock market

Mark Hulbert 17 May 2022

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-are-now-starting-to-feel-the-5-stages-of-bear-market-grief-11652774279



Handelsbanken förväntar sig att styrräntan toppar vid 1,75 procent

Handelsbanken förväntar sig höjningar från Riksbanken på varje möte fram till i april i nästa år. 

Styrräntan spås toppa vid 1,75 procent. 

Handelsbanken spår ett betydande boprisfall.

”Det man är rädd för är såklart att det blir en negativ spiral om man samtidigt har en ekonomi som svalnar av”, säger chefsekonomen Christina Nyman.

DI 18 maj 2022

https://www.di.se/nyheter/annu-en-bank-spar-rejalt-boprisfall-groper-ur-planboken/


Handelsbanken varnar för bostadspriskrasch - Dagens PS

Handelsbanken: Double trouble for households - Handelsbanken (cision.com)

2022-05-17

Börsen 17 maj 2022

 





Powell says Fed ‘won’t hesitate at all’ to lift rates above ‘neutral’




Japan and 2008 showed you can’t skate through a housing crisis

“2000 showed you can just about skate through a stock market event,” said Grantham, “but Japan and 2008 showed you can’t skate through a housing crisis.”

John Authers Bloomberg 6 maj 2022 

Englund: This was the biggest decline of the S&P in the first four months of trading since 1939 (englundmacro.blogspot.com)

 

Housing is still where most wealth is tied up, and it could exert a more negative effect than any other asset class. 

But that is still a way off. 

John Authers Bloomberg 17 maj 2022 

Global 1.5C warming threshold increasingly likely be crossed between now and 2026

There is a 48 per cent chance earth’s annual temperature will exceed 1.5C of warming, compared with pre-industrial levels, in one of the years between now and 2026, the World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office said in a report. 

That probability is likely to keep rising, it added.

FT 9 May 2022

World on course to breach global 1.5C warming threshold within five years | Financial Times (ft.com)

WMO update: 50:50 chance of global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C threshold in next five years | World Meteorological Organization


Den dåliga nyheten är att det troligen är kört att hålla jordens uppvärmning under 1,5 grader, vilket var den ursprungliga ambitionen med FN:s klimatmöten.

Den goda nyheten är att det inte behöver gå så illa som 3 graders uppvärmning, vilket enligt de flesta experter skulle få katastrofala följder.

– Vi har över 1 000 internationella miljöavtal men svagheten finns i implementeringen.

SvD 18 maj 2022


Bear Market Rallies

 Markets don’t generally fall in a straight line, and bear market cycles provide plenty of opportunities. The problem is that those include the chance both to make and lose money.

Housing is still where most wealth is tied up, and it could exert a more negative effect than any other asset class. 

But that is still a way off. 

John Authers Bloomberg 17 maj 2022 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-17/bear-market-rallies-are-dangerous-as-dotcom-crash-gfc-show


US Dollar at levels not seen for 20 years

 Total 12-month appreciation of 16 per cent  

The risks are particularly acute for those developing countries already facing the clear and present dangers of crises over the economy, energy, food and debt.

Mohamed El-Erian FT 17 maj 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/099cf547-9081-488b-87c3-5bf66c18843f


2022-05-16

Börsen 16 maj 2022

 






In the past six weeks, $1 trillion in cryptocurrency value has evaporated—yes, trillion

 When Will the Selling Stop?

We need to see capitulation. It’s the capitulation of people insistent on selling at any price. 

When they dump their mutual funds and ETFs and dogecoin at any price, when we see redemptions run amok, that’s when we’ll be near the bottom.

 After 40 years, interest rates are headed up, probably for the next two years, meaning bond prices are headed down. Stocks, for now, are headed down. Crypto is headed down, some to zero. There is no haven. 

 Andy Kessler WSJ 15 May 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-will-the-selling-stop-crypto-bitcoin-stocks-market-terra-hype-value-debt-11652624704


Stagflation Havens

John Authers Bloomberg 16 maj 2022


Vi har ingen bostadsbubbla i Sverige som riskerar att spricka och Sverige bör införa euron, anser Harry Flam

Han är professor i internationell ekonomi vid Stockholms universitet. 

– Bostadsbubbla är när folk köper bostäder i tron att bostäderna kommer att stiga så att de kommer att göra en vinst när de någon gång säljer i framtiden. Vi har inte det i Sverige

SvT 16 maj 2022

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/ekonomi/ekonomiprofessorn-vi-har-ingen-bostadsbubbla-i-sverige


Harry Flam tror att bostadspriserna långsamt sjunker eller bara planar ut

Den svalnande bostadsmarknaden är inte ett tecken på att det finns en bostadsbubbla som håller på att spricka. Harry Flam tror snarare på en mindre dramatisk situation där priserna långsamt sjunker eller bara planar ut.

Metro 28 oktober 2017

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2017/11/harry-flam-tror-att-bostadspriserna.html


Det finns troligen ingen bostadsbubbla i Sverige, eftersom det är dyrare att bo i hyresrätt än i bostadsrätt. 

Det menar Finanspolitiska rådets ordförande Harry Flam.

21 september 2017

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2017/10/wallenstam-omvandlar-forsta-etappen-av.html


”Sverige bör införa euron”

De ekonomiska argumenten för att Sverige skulle stå utanför eurosamarbetet håller inte längre. På varje punkt som EMU-utredningen analyserade för tio års sedan har läget förändrats och talar nu för att Sverige ska ansluta sig.

Publicerad 2009-01-27

https://www.svd.se/a/04b2821a-8a66-3fd1-9709-7467dd7ae273/sverige-bor-infora-euron




Stagflation Havens

 In the short term there are decent arguments that it’s time for a rally within the bear market. But ...

Three central scenarios. Soft landing, Recession, Stagflation.

The inflation-linked bond market itself is now offering a good opportunity. Breakevens (the implicit forecast derived from the gap between inflation-linked and fixed income yields) rose steadily on both sides of the Atlantic, before taking a sharp dive this month. 

At present markets are saying that inflation from 2027 to 2032 will be below 2.5%, in both the US and Germany. 

If you want to bet on protracted higher inflation, the market has decided to give you one more shot at some generous odds.

John Authers Bloomberg 16 maj 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-16/stagflation-hedges-are-cheap-as-china-xx-recession-risks


Stocks slump toward bear market amid stagflation fears

 MarketWatch 15 May 2022

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bottom-or-bear-market-what-stock-market-investors-need-to-know-about-stagflation-and-the-fed-11652524767


Fed managing the inflation it helped to set off and the recession that may follow as it tries to stabilise prices

 Shadow banking — in the form of everything from repos and eurodollars to commercial paper and money market funds — grew, and the Fed continued to support all these shadow entities. 

 Paul Volcker had to take away the “punch bowl”

Rana Foroohar FT 16 May 2022

Let the Fed put money where it is really needed | Financial Times (ft.com)


The decade between the 2008 financial crisis and this one saw the creation of a vast asset price bubble in just about everything. 

That bubble is now bursting

Rana Foroohar FT 19 April 2020

Rana Foroohar is Global Business Columnist and an Associate Editor at the Financial Times

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/04/since-1980s-us-has-incentivised-debt.html


Volcker: “If I had known what was going to happen, I never would have done it.”

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/volcker-if-i-had-known-what-was-going.html


2022-05-15

There is no end in sight for California’s drought

 The state’s 39 million people are growing accustomed to the reality that there is not enough water for everyone — agriculture, industry, homeowners, fish and wildlife. 

Small water systems are in crisis. With groundwater supplies collapsing, many wells in rural areas have run dry, requiring water to be trucked in. 

A paucity of rain has made wildfire a persistent menace up and down the state.

 Bloomberg 15 May 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-15/california-s-drought-won-t-necessarily-be-an-economic-disaster


California Has Driest Year Since 1924

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/10/california-has-driest-year-since-1924.html


Swedish economist Axel Leijonhufvud

 For me, his real gem is “Life among the Econ”, a comic essay written with wry affection, but serious intent, 50 years ago.

https://www.ufjf.br/econs/files/2010/05/life-econ-crop.pdf

As I noted in a column last year, Leijonhufvud wrote it soon after joining UCLA

https://www.ft.com/content/ecf08d1b-88e3-4c0e-ae3d-8242f52db278

The essential message of “Life among the Econ”, that economists can sometimes be prone to tunnel vision and abstraction, is still relevant. 

These failings were one reason why so few foresaw that 2008 crisis. In the years leading up to it, most economists had little contact with either the weeds of the financial system (where credit bubbles were developing) or subprime mortgage borrowers (where consumers were not behaving as economists’ models predicted).

Gillian Tett 11 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/b409c254-79e6-41f4-91ce-dbeaebda016e


Five years before the financial meltdown of 2008, Robert Lucas famously declared that “the central problem of depression-prevention has been solved . . . and it has been for many decades”.


The next financial crisis could come from Private equity a group of self-dealing oligarchs

 Private equity firm, sick with hidden leverage, and with no central bank willing to take sole responsibility for the mess.

Back when Citigroup was in trouble in March and April 2009, I was in favour of an orderly resolution. Didn’t happen. 

John Dizard FT 14 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/328bc269-d836-4ca6-991a-029ed25e9e82


Citigroup chairman Chuck Prince and ABBA: Dance While The Music Still Goes On

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/03/save-last-dance-for-me.html


Most household mortgages now originate outside the banking system

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/one-question-is-whether-market-slump.html


2022-05-13

Börsen 13 maj 2022

 



Wall Street rallied on Friday, backing away from bear market territory, 
though stocks were still heading toward their sixth consecutive weekly decline.





Volcker: “If I had known what was going to happen, I never would have done it.”

Mellan 1976 och 1982 halverades värdet på USA-börsen. 

Fed-ledamoten Christopher Waller gav i en intervju nyligen en inblick i hur Volcker tänkte:

– Om jag hade vetat vad som skulle hända, skulle jag aldrig ha gjort det, ska Volcker ha sagt till Waller innan han dog, rapporterar CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/10/feds-waller-promises-to-tackle-inflation-says-mistakes-of-the-70s-wont-be-repeated.html

Källa: Johan Carlström SvD 12 maj 2022

https://www.svd.se/a/Xq0VV7/carlstrom-rantehojningar-skrammer-marknaden-mer-an-inflationen

In 1982, he began slashing rates even though inflation was still in high single digits. He feared high rates were destabilizing the world-financial system. Throughout 1982 he became increasingly worried Mexico would default, imperiling the dozens of big U.S. banks that had lent to it. 

Dow’s bear market low of 777 points in August 1982. 

Det datum som angavs som utgångspunkt för uppgången på börsen i New York var den 12 augusti 1982. Vad var det då, frågar man sig, som hände fredagen den 13 augusti, som satte fart på världens aktiebörser. 

Jo, det som hände den dagen var att Mexiko förklarade att man inte längre kunde betala sin utlandsskulder. Det var /den dåvarande/ skuldkrisens födelsedag 

Paniken stod på lur, sammanbrott hotade västvärldens banksystem. 

Jag har skrivit en bok om det.

https://www.internetional.se/re82bok.htm

Den amerikanske centralbankschefen Paul Volcker agerade snabbt, fixade fram några kortfristiga miljarder dollar från kontot för strategisk lagring av olja och betalade Mexiko i förskott för framtida oljeleveranser.

Men han gjorde inte bara det. Han satte också högsta fart på de amerikanska sedelpressarna.

- In the United States, the return to demand management began as early as the summer of 1982, when a three-year recession and the bankruptcy of the Mexican government persuaded the Fed that its experiment with monetarism had gone too far.

Läs mer här

http://www.internetional.se/volckeregokaletsky.pdf

Om Volcker på min blog 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=volcker


Skuldkrisen - LDC Debt Latin American debt crisis

https://www.internetional.se/ldc.html


 

2022-05-12

Stock Selloff Where Will It End?

Reversion to a mean is the expectation. 

Which mean to revert to is the problem.

Following are a few models for considering where the market might ultimately land.

Lu Wang and Elaine Chen Bloomberg 12 maj 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/with-stock-selloff-raging-views-abound-on-where-it-will-end


Börsen 12 maj 2022

 






Retail traders no longer ‘buyer of first resort’

 Net retail inflows amounted to just $2.4bn this month to May 10, compared to $11bn in April and $17bn in March, according to data from JPMorgan.

FT 12 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/39685f90-9921-4520-96cd-483e71bab0b4


‘Buy the Dip’ Believers Are Tested

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/buy-dip-believers-are-tested.html


Hong Kong’s central bank has intervened to defend its US dollar peg

FT 12 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/4ae3c536-ddc7-47a4-8f62-3815aaa295d7


Kronkursförsvaret 1992

Kronkursförsvaret Bank- och finanskrisen 1992 (internetional.se)




European corporate bonds hit by steepest sell-off in at least 20 years

Bonds issued by highly rated companies in the eurozone have lost investors more than 10 per cent since the peak nine months ago

FT 12 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/4e35220e-7f18-47d1-9269-48f8920a5d2d


One question is whether the market slump signals deeper trouble in the economy

 Over the past decade debt and equity markets have played a bigger role in finance, in part owing to tighter regulation that has inhibited risky lending and trading by banks. Most household mortgages now originate outside the banking system

These structural changes in the way finance works may mean that markets are more prone to bouts of erratic trading and nervous breakdowns. 

The Economst editorial 11 May 2022

https://www.economist.com/leaders/a-new-bear-market-in-american-shares/21809256


The shadow banking system and The Volcker Rule

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/how-do-you-get-markets-not-to-believe.html


2022-05-11

Boris Johnson Sverige militärt skydd

Johnson pekade också på två viktiga samarbetsområden - underrättelser och försvarsindustrin med den svenskbrittiska pansarvärnsroboten NLAW som talande exempel. 

Det innebär rimligen att Sverige nu är en del av Natos underrättelsevärld, samt att Storbritannien anser att svensk försvarsindustri är viktig i ett Natosammanhang. 

DI 11 maj 2022

https://www.di.se/ledare/britterna-far-garna-stanna-i-norden/

Den svenska utrikespolitikens eviga fråga. Skall vi följa Tyskland eller skall vi följa England.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/12/den-svenska-utrikespolitikens-eviga.html