The neutral rate, where price pressures cool and output is near capacity, cannot be measured, only estimated

It is also a moving target that changes over time — before 2008, it was thought to be about 5 per cent in advanced economies.

Fed officials think it is now between 2 per cent and 3 per cent, when inflation is at 2 per cent.

FT 18 May 2022

If underlying inflation remains high, reaching neutral will require the Fed to take rates much higher than 2% to 3%

Bill Dudley Bloomberg 11 maj 2022

Englund