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Visar inlägg från december, 2018

Fed had lost its way.

From bubble to bubble, from crisis to crisis, there were increasingly compelling reasons to question the Fed’s stewardship of the US economy. That now appears to be changing.  STEPHEN S. ROACH Project Syndicate Dec 24, 2018

It is mathematically impossible for investors, in aggregate, to "rebalance out of bonds into equities."

The explanation is easy. For every buyer of a stock or bond there is a seller. For every seller there is a buyer. Someone much hold every stock or bond issued, 100% of the time. Individual investors may take action, but rebalancing cannot and will not occur in aggregate because it is mathematically impossible. https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/treasury-secretary-mnuchin-is-totally-clueless-about-how-markets-function--qk2D694HkamTb2SqR9yrQ/

Collateral damage

Shares are often used as collateral for other transactions.  When Wall Street goes down there will be a lot of collateral damage. Rolf Englund Twitter 25 December 2018

Worst Christmas Eve ever

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/us-stock-futures-fall-slightly-as-the-dow-attempts-to-rebound-from-its-worst-week-in-a-decade.html

The U.S. Treasury Department raised eyebrows

and jogged worrying memories of the financial crisis Sunday with a statement that  Secretary Steve Mnuchin convened calls with the CEOs of six leading banks to confirm they had ample liquidity, in hopes of averting another Wall Street selloff Monday.   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-departments-odd-attempt-to-reassure-investors-may-have-just-backfired-2018-12-23 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/23/treasury-secretary-mnuchin-held-calls-with-the-ceos-of-major-banks-to-discuss-the-market-turmoil.html

Verhofstadt: We need only return to the ideas of Europe’s founding fathers: Jean Monnet, Paul-Henri Spaak, Robert Schuman, Alcide de Gasperi, and others.

These leaders had a clear vision of a simpler yet stronger Union, led not by a 28-member commission, but by a real government with 12 ministers. They would have allowed Europeans to vote directly for a parliament with full competencies and legislative authority, and without the system of unanimity that has allowed rogue member states such as Hungary to tie the entire bloc’s hands.  Guy Verhofstadt Project Syndicate Dec 12, 2018 Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian prime minister, is President of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group (ALDE) in the European Parliament and the author of Europe’s Last Chance: Why the European States Must Form a More Perfect Union.

US stocks suffer worst week in a decade

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its biggest weekly drop in percentage terms since 2008. BBC 21 December 2018 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46654064 About the stock market at IntCom

From QE to QT

We have known for years that QE had helped to keep the stock market aloft, and it was logical to believe that  1) QT would follow QE, and that 2) QT would have the effect of reversing the impact of QE.  Wednesday may go down in history as the day when the market finally grasped this. John Authers 20 December 2018

Dow down 734 points intraday

The Dow Jones Industrial Average  ended with a decline of 352 points after being up by as much as 382 points before the FOMC’s announcement. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-party-pooper-here-are-the-worst-performing-stocks-after-the-fed-wrecks-the-market-2018-12-19 It's The Balance Sheet, Stupid! It's not about a piddling 50 basis points on the Federal funds rate next year To the contrary, the clear and present danger to the greatest financial bubble in modern history is the fact that Powell affirmed without hesitation that the Fed will proceed---on automatic pilot no less---to drain that other Swamp via QT or balance sheet run-off. David Stockman

All the biggest stocks that are now in a bear market, in one chart

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-biggest-stocks-that-are-now-in-a-bear-market-in-one-chart-2018-12-17

The majority of the biggest global stock are already in bear-market territory.

 Of companies in the MSCI World Index -- a gauge of developed-market firms -- 52 percent are down by more than 20 percent from their 52-week high Bloomberg 10 December 2018

Bara 18,6 procent skulle rösta för att ersätta kronan av euron

68 procent uppger att de skulle rösta nej.   SvD 7 december 2018 Annie Johansson (hon har senare bytt namn till Lööf) ångrar ett politiskt beslut:  att hon röstade nej till att byta krona mot euro 2003.  I slutet av nästa mandatperiod hoppas hon att svenskarna, på nytt, ska få säga sitt i EMU-frågan. – Fler och fler är ju positiva till EU och EMU. http://www.nejtillemu.com/maudolofsson.htm#annie

It Doesn’t Matter Who Replaces Merkel. Germany Is Broken.

Ms. Merkel, for all her power and influence, is just one politician. Germany’s new political crisis runs much deeper. It stems from an economic system that has resulted in stagnant wages and insecure jobs.  The erosion of Germany’s postwar  — a strong welfare state, full-time employment, the opportunity to move up in the world — has created a populace open to messages and movements previously banished to the fringes. NYT 7 December 2018

U.S. Trade Gap Widens to $55.5 billion a 10-Year High

Bloomberg 6 december 2018

Tino Sanandaji: Sveriges statsskuld är förhållandevis låg, men den privata skuldsättningen i Sverige är desto större.

Hushållens skuldkvot är rekordhög och företagen har lånat ännu större belopp.  Varför lånar vi så mycket? Vilka risker är det som byggs upp? Författaren och forskaren Tino Sanandaji har skrivit boken Tio tusen miljarder – skuldkalaset och den förträngda baksmällan. Han samtalar med PJ Anders Linder. Inspelat den 19 oktober 2018. https://www.axess.se/tv/vodplayer.aspx?vod=10413 https://tino.us/

Barbarerna missförstådda – ville inte alls förstöra Rom

https://www.svd.se/barbarerna-missforstadda--ville-inte-alls-forstora-rom Rome, Habsburg and the European Union https://www.internetional.se/paxromana.htm

Det var nog en och annan gammal löntagarfondsmotståndare som höjde på ögonbrynen vid läsandet av SvD i morse. Villy Bergström och löntagarfonderna.

Minnesord kallades det. Ett mycket selektivt minne, dock. -- Jag vet inte hur Villy Bergström skulle ha känt om han vetat om att han fått minnesord över sig tryckta av Svenska Dagbladets ledarsida. - Dagens arbetarrörelse har mycket att vara stolta över, och mycket att lära, av Villy Bergström. Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein SvD 2 december 2018 Ur min första löntagarfondsartikel, 1974, i Svensk Linje: Villy Bergström (VB) har skisserat förutsättningarna för branschfonderna och dessas konstruktion på i korthet följande sätt. Enligt VB skulle en lösning efter de linjer som han drar upp skapa förutsättning både för ekonomisk tillväxt och en genomgripande demokratisering av det ekonomiska livet - kort sagt en smidig övergång till en demokratisk socialism.  Han säger att demokratiseringen från två håll blir den kniptångsmanöver, vars skänklar är löntagarnas krav att bli hörda och näringslivets kapitalbehov, som till slut avskaffar kapitalismen i Sverige. Full text