Leta i den här bloggen


Staten kan förlora miljarder på Saab-konkurs

Telegram från TT / Omni

Det var pinsamt att höra Maud Olofsson berätta om vilka bra säkerheter som Spyker hade ställt gentemot staten. När det nya företaget går i konkurs kommer nog dessa säkerheter att visa sig värdelösa.


Fundamental questions about the future of the world’s dominant economic model

As the maladies of modern capitalism have multiplied, fundamental questions about the future of the world’s dominant economic model have become impossible to ignore. 

But in the absence of viable alternatives, the question is how to reform a system that is increasingly at odds with democracy.

James K. Galbraith Project Syndicate 19 April 2019 

Ja, han är son till sin far.

Han har också skrivit 

Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice - The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe


With unusual precision, Citigroup said the next recession would start in December.

US stock market tops precede economic contraction by an average of five months. 

Ergo, equities will peak in July. 

That sounds about right.

Ambrose 17 April 2019

During the 80 months between Q1 2012 and Q4 2018 the S&P index rose by 125%

but pre-tax corporate profits of $2.2 trillion (annual rate) did not rise by single dime.

David Stockman  April 17th, 2019


My /Cullen Roche/ View On Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis

In short, Minsky’s FIH was ignored for far too long. 

At the same time, it has the potential to mislead people into thinking that booms are necessarily going to lead to busts and that private debt financed booms will tend to become speculative and ponzi booms. 

Additionally, the mainstream models that ignored debt and assumed that ponzi booms were unpredictable, is probably extreme.

Cullen Roche PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM 11 April 2019

 “well-intentioned government policies aimed at reducing the systemic risks of a crisis in the global financial system may have the unintended and perverse consequence of actually increasing the risk of such a crisis.” 
Or Hyman Minsky’s analysis of why stability is destabilizing.

The Federal Reserve seems to be achieving the fabled soft landing.

With growth likely to transition down toward the longer-term trend in 2019, expect monetary policy to remain on hold for the foreseeable future. 

If the Fed were to move, the odds still favor an interest rate cut over an increase. 
We are likely at the peak of this rate hiking cycle.

Tim Duy Bloomberg 17 april 2019 

 Det erinrar om dagens situation där I USA centralbankschefen Greenspan försöker uppnå en "soft landing" på ekonomins hangarfartyg. Han känner att han inte kommer fram, drar gasen - räntan - i botten, men motorn, penningmängden, svarar inte. Farten sjunker.
Rolf Englund i Smedjan nr 4/1992


US in the midst of the largest wealth bubble in post-World War II history

Today the United States sits in the midst of the largest wealth bubble in post-World War II history, as measured by household net worth (or wealth) relative to gross domestic product

 “well-intentioned government policies aimed at reducing the systemic risks of a crisis in the global financial system may have the unintended and perverse consequence of actually increasing the risk of such a crisis.” 

Or Hyman Minsky’s analysis of why stability is destabilizing.

Eugene Steuerle is a fellow and the Richard B. Fisher chair at the Urban Institute. 
He is co-founder of the Tax Policy Center of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution.


The independence of central banks is under threat from politics

Technocrats face a difficult challenge. The rich world has hardly any room to cut interest rates before hitting zero, so central banks will once again have to turn to unconventional stimulus, such as bond-buying. 

In a single generation billions of people around the world have grown used to low and stable inflation and to the idea that the interest rates on their bank deposits and mortgages are under control.


Did inflation targeting fail? 
Central banks have mostly escaped blame for the crisis.
How can it have gone so wrong? 
Martin Wolf, Financial Times, May 5 2009

Last month marked the 30th anniversary of the announcement of the “Brady plan”.

 In response to the 1980s Latin American debt crisis, this plan, named after then US Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, allowed countries to exchange their commercial bank loans for bonds backed by US Treasuries, bringing an end to a tumultuous period with possible systemic consequences for the global banking system at the time. 

In what was then a novel approach, banks agreed to provide much needed debt relief—the average write down was 35 percent—in exchange for risk-free tradable instruments.


Skuldkrisen - LDC Debt

Rolf Englund, Den Stora bankkraschen, Timbro, 1983

Shadow Banking SKYROCKETS To $52 Trillion and Completely Out of Control! Major Risk

IMF fears Italian debt spiral, and Macron is making it even more dangerous


What to do if stagnation threatens when interest rates are already close to zero?

We are back to facing the same question as in 2016: What to do if stagnation threatens when interest rates are already close to zero?

The depth of the subsequent recession, and the long period of slow growth that followed, was the result not of continued financial system fragility, but of the excessive leverage in the real economy that had developed over the previous half-century. 

Faced with slow growth, political discontent, and large inherited debt burdens, monetary finance cannot be a taboo option.

Adair Turner Project Syndicate 29 March 2019

See also https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/defending-helicopter-money-stimulus-by-adair-turner-2016-08

 Adair Turner, a former chairman of the United Kingdom's Financial Services Authority and former member of the UK's Financial Policy Committee, is

Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. 

His latest book is Between Debt and the Devil.


The night of the referendum, as the results came in, my old comrade was both upbeat and realistic. “It’s a great victory,” he said, “but you realise they’ll never let it happen.”

In 1992, the Danes voted against Maastricht; their government secured opt-outs and, in 1993, the public backed the Treaty on a second referendum.

In 2001, the Irish rejected the Nice Treaty; a year later, after caveats, they gave it the nod.

In 2005, France and the Netherlands voted down the EU constitution; the EU repackaged the constitution as the Lisbon Treaty and carried on merrily. 

The Irish said no to Lisbon in 2008 but affirmed it after a rethink in 2009.

Local politicians have been instrumental to these reversals. 

Tim Stanley Telegraph 8 April 2019

Ett svenskt medlemskap i euron är inte aktuellt just nu.
Ulf Kristersson 16 maj 2018

Moderaterna inför EU-valet 2014: 
"Vi är i grunden positiva till en gemensam valuta"

Vid sitt framträdande hos SNS talade Göran Persson om Europaparlamentets växande maktambitioner.

- Man måste behandla dem artigt och med respekt, annars blir det låsningar, ungefär så sade Göran Persson, som uppskattat sina möte med de andra Stats- och regeringscheferna i Det Europeiska Rådet.

Towards a genuine capital markets union

Integrated capital markets require effective supervision. As a starting point, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) should contribute to further convergence of supervisory practices, in accordance with its mandate, notwithstanding the open debate on future integration steps. 

The recent agreement on the framework for the European System of Financial Supervision will also contribute to more harmonisation.

Such a Financing Union would be a decisive and feasible step to complete our Economic and Monetary Union.

François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France and Dr Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank

Deutsche Bundesbank 4 april 2019

German elite call for radical rethink of EU's Brexit strategy

Gabriel Felbermayr, head of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, said the EU’s Brexit strategy had gone off the rails and should be stopped before it does any more harm to long-term relations with Britain.
A new formula must be found to ensure friendly ties with countries on the outer rim of the European continental system that do not wish to be part of ever-closer union.

Battle for Tripoli escalates as fighting nears Libyan capital

Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army, backed by the United Arab Emirates, is leading a multi-pronged assault on the capital in an attempt to overthrow the Tripoli-based GNA.


On 19 March 2011, a multi-state NATO-led coalition began a military intervention in Libya


The United States and Britain have warmly welcomed Libya's decision to abandon its programmes for developing weapons of mass destruction.


British Prime Minister Tony Blair put his personal seal of approval on Libya's return to international respectability by shaking hands Thursday with Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi in a ceremonial Bedouin tent near Tripoli.
Blair's visit to the home of the Arab ruler, whom President Ronald Reagan once described as the "mad dog of the Middle East," constituted a diplomatic reward for Gaddafi's agreement to dismantle Libya's weapons of mass destruction programs and condemn terrorism.

Without Stock Buybacks the Stock Market Would Collapse! Unless...


Corporate buybacks alone cannot account for the extent of this year’s rally


The surge in buybacks reflects a fundamental shift in how the market is operating, cementing the position of corporations as the single largest source of demand for American stocks.



The next recession will be deeper, longer and far more painful to many more people than your average recession, and could persist as long as the last one.

That is because the next recession in all likelihood will be truly global. 

If you sailed through 2007–2009 without your lifestyle changing, I wouldn’t assume it will happen that way again.

Investors once again “learned” that if you simply stay the course, the market will get you back to where you were and more.

The Bernanke Fed’s answer was quantitative easing. It had an effect but not the intended one. 

Instead of going to productive use, the new stimulus helped banks deleverage and public companies leverage up and repurchase their own shares

John Mauldin 5 April 2019

Even if the yield curve inversion has historically heralded bad times for equities, this time might be different, says JPMorgan

because monetary conditions remain soft.

Can the world's central banks rescue the slowing global economy even if they try?


Keynesian dogma has become something close to a secular religion in popular economic-policy debates. But...

 “Austerity,” Alesina,  Favero, and  Giavazzi write, “indicates a policy of sizable reduction of government deficits and stabilization of government debt achieved by means of spending cuts or tax increases, or both.”

Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard’s recent address at the American Economic Association. Blanchard made headlines by endorsing the view that future growth will almost invariably be sufficient to cover future interest payments, implying that the debt in most advanced economies is far below the level that would ever cause problems.

Austerity is a towering scholarly achievement, embodying decades of research and destined to serve as a touchstone for future studies – both by those who will build on it and by those who will try to tear it down.

Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero, and Francesco Giavazzi, Austerity: When It Works and When It Doesn’t, Princeton University Press, 2019.

Kenneth Rogoff Project Syndicate 5 April 2019


NATO was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”

Lord  Ismay NATO’s first Secretary General had famously said  NATO was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”


Gång på gång har vi sett hur bankerna ställt till det i samhället.

Den ansedda brittiska tidningen The Economist kallade 2003 bankerna för ”den mest riskfyllda ekonomiska institution som människan skapat”.

– Hela finanssektorn har som affärsidé att lura kunderna. Du säljer på dem extremt komplexa och dyra lösningar som väldigt få kunder förstår, säger chefen som talade om att maximera vinst.

SvD 2019


Var fjärde invånare i Sverige har numera utländsk bakgrund (det vill säga är själv utrikes född eller har två utlandsfödda föräldrar).

 År 2000 uppgick antalet utrikes födda till ganska exakt en miljon (11,3 procent av befolkningen). 

I slutet av 2018 hade antalet nästan fördubblats till 1 955 569 personer (19,1 procent av befolkningen). Största ursprungsland är Syrien följt av Finland och Irak. 

Den 12 april släpper SCB en ny prognos över befolkningsutvecklingen

Anna Dahlberg Expressen 30 mars 2019



Bank runs in the digital era

He /former Canadian central banker Mark Zelmer/ the argues
that “past experience” has shown how quickly runs can take place in a digital world

Thomas Hale FT Alphaville 29 March 2019

Ingves: Riksbanken kan inte, och ska inte, stabilisera både inflationen och växelkursen.

Man måste välja, och med ett inflationsmål är det ofrånkomligt att växelkursen rör sig. 

Liksom många andra små öppna ekonomier, som Norge, Australien, Nya Zeeland och Kanada, har Sverige länge haft rörlig växelkurs och inflationsmål.

Detta innebär att penningpolitiken kan ta större hänsyn till den inhemska ekonomiska utvecklingen än vad som är möjligt när växelkursen är fast, om det finns tillräckligt förtroende för inflationsmålet. 

Man behöver till exempel inte höja räntan i en redan vikande konjunktur för att försvara växelkursen, något som skulle förstärka nedgången. 

En annan fördel är att den rörliga växelkursen i kristider kan fungera som en stötdämpare för den inhemska ekonomin.

Stefan Ingves DN DEBATT 27/3 2019

Riksbanken publicerar i dag den årliga rapporten ”Redogörelse för penningpolitiken”.


Turkey - the central bank drove the overnight offshore swap rate above 1,300pc

 in a drastic attempt to defend the lira before national elections this weekend, but the currency continued to slide. 
It has lost 40 pc of its value over the last year.

Varför Finansinspektionen teg om Swedbank?

Swedbank är en systemviktig bank.

Därför är det viktigt att utlandets förtroende för de svenska bankerna inte rubbas.

De svenska bankernas affärsidé är, något förenklat, att låna upp några miljarder dollar på 30 dagar på marknaden och låna ut pengarna på 30 år till dem som vill köpa nybyggda bostadsrätter.

So far so good. Men var 30:e dag måste utlandslånen rullas runt.

En bank går inte i konkurs därför att värdet av bankens tillgångar har försämrats. Banker går i konkurs när bankens fordringsägare, småsparare eller stora utländska banker, vill ha tillbaka sina pengar eller inte vill förnya sina krediter.

Det var det som hände 1992 när en bank, jag tror det var Handelsbanken, inte kunde rulla runt sina lån eftersom de utländska bankerna, på goda grunder, var bekymrade för bankens fastighetskrediter.

- Bankerna kan få problem eftersom två tredjedelar av de pengar de lånar upp är utländsk valuta.

Var det därför Finansinspektionen inte slagit larm om Swedbank?

Man vill ju inte gärna tro att det var inkompetens hos en sådan viktig myndighet.

Finansinspektionens förre chef får kritik: 'Släpphänt, okunnig'
"Det är svårt att vara olyckskorp när allt går som smort"

Ett lån på 3,8 miljarder kronor till Sparbanksstiftelsen Första

Proposition 1991/92:168 om statligt engagemang för lösning av krisen i Sparbanken Första AB På regeringens vägnar, Carl Bildt/Bo Lundgren 

Utdrag ur protokoll vid regeringssammanträde den 9 april 1992


The ECB has proffered a fresh round of cheap funding for the banks (TLTROs) but that is life-support.

It is not a monetary propellant. 

“The TLTROs are an admission that the banks are still broken. They still cannot get money from the market at viable cost,” said Mr Ferguson.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 27 MARCH 2019



The U.S. Current Account Deficit: Threat or Way of Life?

The United States is able to borrow enough to pay for its trade deficit because of the demand for U.S. Treasury notes. 

The federal government guarantees U.S. Treasury notes, so investors consider them the safest investment in the world. 

the balance March 19, 2019

US government debt is a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941.

Niall Ferguson, FT February 10 2010


Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban

1989 i Budapest, när vad som ännu fanns kvar av den Kadaristiska ordningen nästan dagligen föll sönder, krävde han vid ett massmöte att ryssarna skulle lämna Ungern. Jag var där och trodde inte mina öron. Ingen hade offentligt vågat säga något sådant förut. 

På samma sätt har han målat upp flyktingarna och invandringen till Europa som ett ödesdigert hot mot den ungerska nationen, en nation som är djupt oroad över ett hot som egentligen inte existerar. 

Ungern har inte tagit emot några flyktingar, inga står för dörren, allt färre kommer till Europa. Inte heller är det Orbán som sett till att inga längre kommer. 

Richard Swartz DN 23 mars 2019

Många försök har gjorts att förena Europa. Alla har misslyckats: 
Rom, Attila, Karl den Store, Napoleon, Hitler. Det senaste försöket står EU för. 
Euron är den senaste och kanske hittills djärvaste framstöten mot ett sådant enat Europa.
Richard Swartz, Kolumn DN 4 augusti 2012

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban


Let’s be very clear what Wednesday’s full-frontal capitulation by the Fed means: It’s coming. The next recession that is.

It means all their 2018 statements of optimism and predictions of raising rates in 2019 and previous insistence on a balance sheet roll-off being on “autopilot” were all wrong. 

Reality and markets rolled over them. They didn’t see the slowdown coming, and only after markets dropped 20% in December did they change their policy stance and have now cemented a dovish stance for years to come.


It was just two months ago that Jerome Powell set off a market panic by suggesting the FOMC would do what it thinks is right and let asset prices go where they may. 


Varoufakis: A balanced capitalist economy requires a magic number, in the form of the prevailing real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate.

First, it must balance employers’ demand for waged labor with the available labor supply.

Second, it must equalize savings and investment.

If the prevailing real interest rate fails to balance the labor market, we end up with unemployment, precariousness, wasted human potential, and poverty. If it fails to bring investment up to the level of savings, deflation sets in and feeds back into even lower investment.

It takes a heroic disposition to assume that this magic number exists or that, even if it does, our collective endeavors will result in an actual real interest rate close to it.

How do free marketeers convince themselves that there exists a single real interest rate (say, 2%) that would inspire investors to funnel all existing savings into productive investments and spur employers to hire everyone who wishes to work at the prevailing wage?

Yanis Varoufakis Project Syndicate 19 March 2019 

Grundbultsfrågan: Hur blir S = I ??? Savings and investment, being different activities carried on by different people

Om jag hittar det igen i min dator eller via Google återkommer jag med hans berättelse om hur han förklarade saker för sina finansministerkollegor inom Eurozonen medan de stirrade med tomma ögon framför sig och sedan körde över honom och Grekland i ännu en extend-and-pretend-lösning.


My page about him


Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co.

I don’t want to be a tone deaf CEO; while the company is doing fine, it is absolutely obvious that a big chunk of [people] have been left behind 

— 40% of Americans make less than $15 an hour: 
40% of Americans can’t afford a $400 bill, whether it’s medical or fixing their car 

15% of Americans make minimum wages. 
70,000 die from opioids.’

Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co.



“collateralized loan obligation,” or C.L.O

C.L.O.’s are nothing more than a package of risky corporate loans made to companies with less than stellar credit. 

The big Wall Street banks make these loans to their corporate clients and then seek to move them off their balance sheets as quickly as possible, in the same way that a decade ago they packaged up and offloaded risky mortgage securities. 

William D. Cohan a former investment banker and the author of four books about Wall Street, New York Times March 18, 2019


- Efter kalla krigets slut drev våra båda partier en intensiv kampanj för att Sverige och Finland skulle ansluta sig till den Europeiska gemenskapen, som EU då hette. 

Ulf Kristersson och Petteri Orpo, partiledare för finska Samlingspartiet SvD 16 mars 2019

Kommentar av Rolf Englund:

"Som EU då hette" 
Kristersson framställer det som om det var fråga om ett namnbyte.

Man borde kunna utgå ifrån att en som gärna vill bli statsminister vet bättre än så.

Om han således talar mot bättre vetande är det både skamligt och ytterligare ett exempel på att EU-kramarna försöker lura på folket ytterligare steg på vägen mot en Ever Closer Union.

/Men/ det var i Maastricht som det beslutades att EU inte bara skulle vara en ekonomisk gemenskap utan också en politisk union, inte bara ha en gemensam valuta utan också en gemensam utrikes- och säkerhetspolitik, inte bara grundas på mellanstatlighet utan också på överstatlighet.

Förutsättningarna för politisk gemenskap blev naturligtvis inte bättre av att EU inom loppet av tolv år utvidgades från tolv till tjugosju medlemsstater, många av dem utan vare sig vilja eller förmåga att leva upp till de politiska visionerna från Maastricht. 

Sveriges nej till euron, liksom Frankrikes och Nederländernas nej till EU-konstitutionen, kan i det perspektivet ses som en räcka varningsskyltar inför vägs ände.

Det skrev Göran Rosenberg i DN 6/7 2007

If you want to understand what is happening to the European Union’s constitution, the EU flag is a good place to start. 

European leaders will agree to delete references to the flag in the constitution. 

Everybody knows the flags will keep flying. 

The words in the constitution will change. But the substance will remain the same.

Gideon Rachman, Financial Times June 12 2007

Ett svenskt medlemskap i euron är inte aktuellt just nu.
Ulf Kristersson 16 maj 2018



How Islam Created Europe

In late antiquity, the religion split the Mediterranean world in two. Now it is remaking the Continent.


När Khaddafi fick jobb som EU:s gränspolis
I början av oktober 2010 åkte EU-kommissionär Cecilia Malmström till Libyen


The Case for a Significant German Stimulus Is Now Overwhelming

Kramp-Karrenbauer går rakt på sak. Nej, EU ska inte förvandlas till ”en europeisk superstat”.

I Frankrike tog AKK:s brev emot som något av en krigsförklaring.

”Europavalet förvandlas till en konflikt mellan Tyskland och Frankrike”, skrev veckomagasinet Le Point  under rubriken ”Berlins explosiva svar till Macron”.

Therese Larsson Hultin SvD 12 mars 2019


Det engelska upproret är nedslaget.

- Roms legioner har med hjälp av medborgare lojala med Rom återställt ordningen, säger Kejsaren.

Spanien, Frankrike och Tyskland har tidigare försökt erövra Storbritannien var för sig. 

Nu gick det bättre.

Så var det på det gamla romarrikets tid

Så här är det nu.

The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game

It was just two months ago that Jerome Powell set off a market panic by suggesting the FOMC would do what it thinks is right and let asset prices go where they may. 

They /Fed/ were promising at least two if not three more rate hikes in 2019. The stock market fell out of bed.

To understand what’s going on, we need to review some ancient history, and by “ancient” I mean December 2018. That’s several eons ago in today’s news cycle.

Powell’s predecessors had given the Fed an unofficial third mandate: defend stock prices as well as maintain low inflation and full employment. 

His comments that day seemed to reveal Powell had no interest in continuing that practice.
Powell has turned the other direction and is now bent on pleasing investors, the exact opposite of the impression he so carefully gave in December.

The Powell Put  Can it have short-term, market-friendly results? Absolutely. For longer than we might think? Assuredly. 

Can corporations continue to build up high-yield debt to unsustainable levels? They’re trying. 

As long as the music keeps playing, they will continue to dance.

John Mauldin March 1 2019

Fed Capitulation is the Beginning of the End - Peter Schiff

How to understand the Fed’s dovish turn


Debt cannot rise faster than GDP forever, but it may do so for quite a while.

Today’s long-term, inflation-adjusted interest rates in the US are about half their 2010 level, far below what markets were predicting back then, and far below Fed and International Monetary Fund forecasts. 

At the same time, inflation has also been lower for longer than virtually any economic model would have predicted

Fed Chair Jerome Powell could barely contain himself when asked to comment on this new progressive dogma. 

“The idea that deficits don’t matter for countries that can borrow in their own currency I think is just wrong,” Powell insisted in US Senate testimony last month. 

He added that US debt is already very high relative to GDP and, worse still, is rising significantly faster than it should.

Kenneth Rogoff Project Syndicate 4 March 2019

Stein's Law: If something cannot go on for ever it will stop.