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2019-06-26

Professor Jacob Sundberg och tidsandan

Tidsandans kraft är stor.

När 68-vänstern härjade som mest och bl a krävde att studenterna skulle bestämma kursinnehållet på universiteten hamnade professorn i Allmän Rättslära vid Stockholms Universitet i blåsväder.

Många inom den dåvarande universitetsledningen torde så här i efterhand ha mycket att fråga sig om varför de föll undan.

Här en inlaga från en av hans elever för begrundande.

r en länk till Professor Sundbergs site för vilken jag har äran att i många år ha varit web-master.

2019-06-25

The ruling Lega and Five Star parties strip the central bank of its sacrosanct status

The governor and deputy would be appointed by the prime minister and other officials by the Italian Camera and Senate in secret votes.

The European Central Bank is certain to treat the initiative with suspicion. Independence of the national central banks is obligatory under EU treaty law.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 21 June 2019

2019-06-23

Varmast blir det i Spanien, stora delar av Frankrike, Tyskland, Tjeckien, Polen och Österrike.

Kombinationen av en haltande storm över Atlanten och högtryck över Centraleuropa får varm luft från Afrika att spridas i Europa. 

SvT 22 juni 2019


AccuWeather said cities from Madrid to Berlin, including Paris, Brussels and Frankfurt, were likely to experience a “multi-day heatwave” in the first half of the week, with similar temperatures of 32C or above expected further east later in Bucharest, Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade and Sofia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/21/continental-europe-braced-for-potentially-dangerous-heatwave

2019-06-21

The dollar is of course over-valued.

The Federal Reserve’s broad dollar index reached a 17-year high in early June. 

The manufacturing trade deficit has ballooned to $900bn.

The eurozone is chief global parasite. It has been sucking demand out of the global economy with current account surpluses of €300bn to €400bn.

Germany’s current account surplus of 8.5pc of GDP.

Ambrose 19 June 2019



Stocks are now offering the best selling opportunity in 10 years, thanks to the Fed

They’re right. It is different this time.
It’s worse. Much, much worse.

Debt is higher than ever, be it corporate debt, government debt or global central banks’ balance sheets. 

Limited ammunition to deal with a new recession, wealth inequality, the social divisions and political extremes, and now trillion-dollar deficits — everything points to a more fragile system. 

On paper, low interest rates keep it all afloat, but the context is as ugly as it gets.

Here we are, with the great collapse unfolding in front of us. 

Sven Henrich MarketWatch June 20, 2019



2019-06-20

Sadly, the eurozone has not learned the debt lessons of Versailles, or heeded the warnings of John Maynard Keynes.

Although the creditor-debtor cards have been reshuffled since 1919, the game remains the same. Creditors want their pound of flesh, and debtors want to avoid giving it. 

Debtors want their debts forgiven, while creditors fret about “moral hazard” and ignore the destabilizing, contagious effects of making debtor countries poorer. 

By raising taxes and cutting public spending, Germany generated the required surplus to meet its annual debt payments between 1929 and 1931, but at the cost of intensifying the slump. 

The German economy shrank by 25%, and unemployment soared to 35%. The policy of “fulfillment” under Chancellor Heinrich Brüning paved the way for Adolf Hitler, who simply repudiated the debt.
Today’s debt charade in the eurozone has many parallels with post-World War I Europe.

The tragedy of the interwar years in Germany was that the Social Democrats - then the world’s foremost socialist party - became fatally tainted by acquiescing in /accepting/ Bruning’s deflation torture from 1930 to 1932. 

2019-06-19

Löntagarfonderna


Från SAF:s sida möttes förslaget med betydande skepsis och bland yngre funktionärer med direkta motangrepp. Detta resulterade dock först år 1978 i ett mer organiserat motstånd genom publicerandet av pamfletten "Fritt näringsliv eller fondsocialism" författad av SAF-tjänstemannen Danne Nordling. 

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/4_oktober-demonstrationerna

Efter långa och hårda interna duster och genom avgörande insatser av personer som Curt Nicolin, Sture Eskilsson, Olof Ljunggren, Ulf Laurin och (inte minst) Janerik Larsson så kom näringslivet fram till att avbryta allt förhandlande om löntagarfonder. Näringslivet sa nej. Punkt och slut. 

Wudar Andersson SvD 2011-06-12

 I efterhand kan striden om löntagarfonderna te sig som ett tydligt upplinjerat slagfält - på ena sidan arbetarrörelsen, på den andra näringslivet och de borgerliga partierna. Så enkel var verkligheten inte på den tiden det begav sig.

- Inom såväl näringslivet som de borgerliga partierna var meningarna delade om den rätta taktiken och strategin. Många var oroliga för den konfrontationsstämning som en ovillkorligt nej till löntagarfonder skulle skapa. I stället sökte man efter någon typ av kompromiss som skulle kunna blidka arbetarrörelsen.

- Bland dem som från första början hävdade ett otvetydigt nej till varje form av löntagarfonder var Rolf Englund. På det sätt som är kännetecknande för hans personlighet valde han tydligast möjliga ställningstagande även när det var obekvämt i förhållande till det allmänna debattklimatet och tunga aktörer.
Sture Eskilsson

https://internetional.se/fondmny.htm









2019-06-18

Lysande artikel. Swedbank är banken i sin tredje stora kris på 30 år.

Hoppet står nu till en före detta statsminister.

Det här är berättelsen om hur en svensk folkbank hamnade i en internationell härva av misstänkt penningtvätt.

         


Africa to propel world’s population towards 10bn by 2050

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is set to double over the next 30 years, adding an additional 1bn people

The trend is exemplified by Nigeria, whose population has already surged from 95m in 1990 to 201m this year. 
Nigeria’s population is set to double again to more than 400m by 2050, when it will have overtaken the US as the world’s third most inhabited country.

FT 17 June 2019

9.7 billion on Earth by 2050, but growth rate slowing, 

says new UN population report



Min första artikel i en stor tidning
Vad gör vi åt befolkningsexplosionen?
Rolf Englund Svenska Dagbladet, Fritt Forum (dåtidens Brännpunkt) 4/8 1967

https://www.internetional.se/wolfsachsdoom.htm




2019-06-17

Ms. Warren and Donald Trump agree on at least one thing: America’s currency problems are hurting workers.

Overseas currency manipulation by central governments made American exports more expensive all over the world. 

And it made products manufactured in China and other countries cheaper in comparison.

It’s the primary reason America’s trade deficit soared over the last 20 years, wiping out almost five million manufacturing jobs, roughly 90,000 factories and the livelihood of thousands of the nation’s farmers.

Robert E. Scott, Senior economist with the Economic Policy Institute Policy Center NYT June 16, 2019

Economic Policy Institute

US Dollar

Open letter responding to a series of essays by Ray Dalio, part 2

Dear Ray,

Keeping rates too low for too long in the current cycle brought massive capital misallocation. 

It resulted in the financialization of a significant part of the business world, in the US and elsewhere. 

The rules now reward management, not for generating revenue, but to drive up the price of the share price, thus making their options and stock grants more valuable.

Artificially low rates created the housing bubble, exacerbated by regulatory failure and reinforced by a morally bankrupt financial system.

John Mauldin 14 June 2019

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, and MMT



Washington can pull the plug on Hong Kong's economic model at any moment

Once this line is crossed, the US will cease to recognise the territory as an independent member of the World Trade Organisation. 

It will cut off access to sensitive technologies. Hong Kong will be subject to the same painful tariffs faced by exporters from mainland China.

Ambrose 16 June 2019

2019-06-15

Why the next bear market could shave 35% off the Dow

What about the Cyclically-Adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) that was made famous by Yale University finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller? 

CAPE currently is extremely high (30.2, versus an average of 15.8 since 1871),


Mark Hulbert MarketWatch June 14, 2019 

Robert Shiller

2019-06-14

Italy and France debt

The problem for Emmanuel Macron as he fans the flames of a no-deal Brexit is that his banks own a large chunk of Italy’s debt through subsidiaries. 

Total French exposure is 12 times French GDP, six times its exposure to Greece in 2010.


Ambrose Telegraph 14 June 2019

- Den stora risken var att Grekland skulle utlösa en kris i italienska, franska och tyska banker. 
Nu finns i praktiken en EU-garanti för de utestående grekiska statsobligationerna.
Anders Borg, TT, SvD papper 22 februari 2012

2019-06-13

Hur kommer det sig att Ben Bernanke som var en erkänd expert på Den stora depressionen 1929 inte såg krisen komma?

Det är för att i hans ekonomiska modell så existerar ingen ”kreditdriven efterfrågan”. Han avfärdade professor Irving Fischers kreditbaserade förklaring av Den stora depressionen 

Professor Steve Keen med flera SvD 13 juni 2019

Bernanke

Hyman Minsky



2019-06-12

Martin Feldstein, economist, 1939-2019

 Feldstein in 1997 published what swiftly became a notorious commentary on the idea of the European single currency for Foreign Affairs. In it, he argued that the creation of a single currency could lead to intra-European disputes: “conflicts over economic policies and interference with national sovereignty could reinforce longstanding animosities based on history, nationality, and religion”.

Martin Wolf FT 12 June 2017


The crisis in the eurozone is the result of France’s persistent pursuit of the “European project,” 
the goal of political unification that began after World War II when two leading French politicians, 
Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman, proposed the creation of a United States of Europe.
Martin Feldstein, 27 May 2012



http://www.nejtillemu.com/freden.htm#0512feldstein

Europas politiker har slagit in på en ekonomisk kurs som ser ut att leda mot sammanbrott. 
Konsekvenserna riskerar att bli dramatiska.
Huvudargumentet för en europeisk valuta var att den skulle göra krig omöjliga.
Tio år senare har valutasamarbetet lett till motsatsen
Har vi svenskar förträngt hur vi löste vår egen finanskris under 1990-talet?
Peter Wolodarski, DN 27 maj 2012


http://www.nejtillemu.com/wolodarski.htm#0512sammanbrott


Why did it all go wrong? Three main reasons: 

French grandiosity, German shame and a universal law of bureaucratic self-aggrandizement.


 Clive Crook, Bloomberg, 24 May 2012


 http://www.nejtillemu.com/feldstein.htm





Stagflation is not good for the stock market

The next president of the ECB might determine whether there is a eurozone, perhaps an EU, at the end of the term in 2027.

It is possible for Germany to have full employment and a budget surplus because Germany has been running a huge current account surplus. 

That would have been far more difficult if Germany had not been inside the eurozone: a floating Deutsche Mark would surely have appreciated hugely, Germany would now be in deflation

Martin Wolf FT 11 June 2019



2019-06-10

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, and MMT

Ray Dalio is the thoughtful, somewhat controversial founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, which he started in 1975. 

“Ray Dalio is really, really wrong.” In that essay he basically endorses Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). 

Coming from someone of Ray’s stature, and knowing that others like Bill Gross are beginning to endorse MMT either obliquely or directly, I found myself wanting to shout, “Stop! This is dangerous!”

John Mauldin 7 June 2019


Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, says that unconventional monetary policies may be required as traditional policy stumbles.

MarketWatch 2 May 2019



Breakdown of society

Om civilisationen kollapsar t ex 2050 kommer allt inte att vara som vanligt 2049, tänkte jag och googlade Breakdown of society. 

Jag fann raskt artiklar hos BBC och New Scientist.

Arnold Toynbee in his 12-volume magnum opus A Study of History - an exploration of the rise and fall of 28 different civilisations.

You might also like:

How Western civilisation could collapse
The perils of short-termism: Civilisation’s greatest threat
What are the biggest threats to humanity?

BBC Future - The long view of humanity Luke Kemp 19 February 2019

AH, the good old days, when predictions that “the end is nigh” were seen only on sandwich boards, and the doom-mongers who carried them were easy enough to ignore. If only things had stayed so simple.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23731610-300-end-of-days-is-western-civilisation-on-the-brink-of-collapse/

New Scientist is the world’s most popular weekly science and technology magazine. Its website, app and print editions cover international news from a scientific standpoint, and ask the biggest-picture questions about life, the universe and what it means to be human. 

https://www.newscientist.com/about/



Civilisationen kan kollapsa 2050 – ska vi bry oss?


How Matteo Salvini could blow up the eurozone

A curious thing happened in the Italian parliament last week. The chamber of deputies voted unanimously in favour of a motion to introduce a parallel currency in Italy — the so-called mini-BOTs.

Wolfgang Münchau FT 9 June 2019

2019-06-08

Civilisationen kan kollapsa 2050 – ska vi bry oss?

Orden från Chris Barrie, tidigare överbefälhavare i Australien, är brutala. 

Det finns en ”verklig risk att mänskligt liv på jorden är på väg mot utrotning, på det mest fruktansvärda sätt”, skriver han i inledningen till en rapport som spritts som en löpeld i världens medier de senaste dagarna.

Vidare kommer den globala matproduktionen att sjunka med en femtedel, Amazonas ekosystem kollapsa och permafrosten smälta.

Så fortsätter det. Jetströmmen kommer att destabiliseras.

- The destabilisation of the Jet Stream has very significantly affected the intensity and geographical distribution of the Asian and West African monsoons and, together with the further slowing of the Gulf Stream, is impinging on life support systems in Europe.

-  Some poorer nations and regions, which lack capacity to provide artificially-cooled environments for their populations, become unviable.

Peter Alestig SvD 2019-06-07


Väderkartan är konstig (inte som den var förr)


2019-06-07

US has been running overall trade deficits since 1976

The US deficit peaked at 5.5% of GDP in 2006, but usually amounts to around 3% of GDP.

China’s current-account surplus down from nearly 10% to 1% of GDP over the past decade.


Zhu Min Project Syndicate Jan 22, 2019

Zhu Min, a former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, 
is Chair of the National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University, Beijing. 

Jugoslavien var det som EU vill bli - en ekonomisk, politisk och monetär union

2019-06-05

Target2 credits have reached €920bn - and Italy

Bond purchases by the ECB under its quantitative easing scheme have exacerbated the imbalances, effectively becoming a disguised conduit for capital flight from Italy.

The Bank of Italy’s Target2 liabilities on the other side of the ledger have climbed to €481bn.  

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 4 June 2019





2019-06-04

US Current Account deficit

What does €2.6tn buy you? If you’re after inflation, the answer is not much.

The reason is that no matter how much radical support central banks provide, banks will not want to lend and companies will not want to borrow, instead preferring to rebuild their battered balance sheets.

Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability by Michael Heise

FT 3 June 2019



Did inflation targeting fail? 

How can it have gone so wrong?

2019-05-30

Debate on output gap will determine Italy’s scope for growth

The biggest bazooka of all in the monetary policy arsenal

Targeted long-term refinancing operation - TLTRO

Banks were able to borrow from the ECB at the deposit rate (minus 0.4 per cent) as long as they lent the money on to the real economy — an effective subsidy of banks.

FT 29 May 2019

2019-05-29

Spitzenkandidatsystemet innebär att man förvandlar rollen som EU-kommissionens ordförande, till en roll mycket nära en klassisk premiärministers

– en makthavare som är vald på politiska premisser i allmänna val och backas upp av en parlamentarisk majoritet. 

En inte helt oproblematisk omskrivning av EU-kommissionens arbetsuppdrag.

I EU:s senaste regelbok, Lissabonfördraget från 2009, står det att EU:s stats- och regeringschefer måste ta resultatet i valet till EU-parlamentet ”i beaktning” när de väljer ordförande till EU-kommissionen.

EU-parlamentet har inte heller ställt väljarna frågan om de vill att EU ska ha en politiskt vald premiärminister.


Teresa Küchler SvD 2019-05-28

Vad är det som har en flagga, en nationaldag, en nationalsång, en militärstyrka, ett parlament och en högsta domstol. En stat, naturligtvis. Vad är det mer en stat har? Jo, en valuta. Det är därför Europas ledande politiker har infört euron. 


Rolf Englund Internet 20/1 2003





To the extent modern monetary theory is true, it is unoriginal; to the extent it is original, it is false

Since the financial crisis, central bank balance sheets and bank reserves have grown hugely, but broader monetary aggregates have not. 

The explanation is that the dominant driver of the money supply is the (risk-adjusted) profitability of lending, which is high in booms and low in busts. 

The weakness of credit also explains why inflation has remained low.

Martin Wolf FT 28 maj 2019



Krisvarning: Bankerna kan förlora 771 miljarder

Vår sammantagna bedömning i Stabilitetsrapporten är att bankernas motståndskraft behöver öka, säger Olof Sandstedt, chef för avdelningen finansiell stabilitet på Riksbanken.

Riksbankens övning är att resultatet skiljer sig drastiskt från det resultat som Finansinspektionen och Europeiska bankmyndigheten, EBA, kablade ut i höstas 

Totalt över de tre åren i scenariot blir bankernas kreditförluster med Riksbankens metod 771 miljarder kronor – och med bankernas metoder i EBA:s stresstest 155 miljarder kronor.

Patricia Hedelius SvD 2019-05-28

https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/fsr/fordjupningar/svenska/2019/stresstester-av-bankers-kapital-fordjupning-i-finansiell-stabilitetsrapport-2019_1.pdf


https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/fsr/svenska/2019/190522/finansiell-stabilitetsrapport-2019_1.pdf


Svenska banker

2019-05-25

EU and the coming economic downturn

Unlike the crisis of ten years ago, the damage caused by the coming slowdown will not be concentrated in southern Europe; it will hurt the eurozone as a whole, including almighty Germany. ,

The European Union barely survived the first crisis. A recession that hits the EU core would amount to a serious, even existential, threat.

One would think that ten years were enough to take steps to prevent history from repeating itself. But initiatives like the creation of a banking union and the completion of the single market have not been realized, because Europe’s leaders have insisted on discussing issues at the margins, rather than implementing difficult reforms. 

It is as if they haven’t noticed the lowering clouds on the economic horizon.

Ana Palacio Project Syndicate 22 May 2019

2019-05-24

Economics is rightly in the midst of a re-think

It was obvious a lot had gone wrong at the time of the financial crisis; it was a professional embarrassment that the worst crash in three generations occurred not too long after economists took over in the cockpit.

And then just as significantly, a decade on from that crisis, we know that the orthodox economic model (the one that many people call "neoliberal") is leaving swathes of people in large parts of all western societies dissatisfied.
Obviously, politics and policy-makers are responding to the anger in the usual way - trying to fumble their way to something different. 
But there is something else going on as well: the whole academic discipline of economics is being re-considered: the theory as well as the policy advice.



Carl Bildt vill nog gärna bli EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy

Following the 2008 financial crash, the euro crisis, and recurrent migration imbroglios /an extremely confused, complicated, or embarrassing situation/  the EU has turned inward. 

At the same time, the EU’s immediate neighborhood has transformed from a circle of potential friends and partners into a ring of fire.

The choice, then, is clear. Europe’s strategic mission in the coming years must be to secure its position on the world stage, and all matters of policy and personnel should be settled in a way that advances that objective. 

Obviously, a strong European Council president, working closely with a strong high representative, will be essential.

Carl Bildt Project Syndicate 20 May 2019

2019-05-23

William White, the BIS’s former chief economist

“It ­reminds me of what happened in 2008 to 2009 when European banks were ­financing long-term assets in the US with short-term dollar debt. They had a huge liquidity problem. This time the trouble is in Asia, and I am afraid that Asian banks might have to sell a lot of assets in fire-sale conditions.”
The Fed saved the day in 2008 by ­extending emergency dollar liquidity to fellow central banks through swap lines. “It is not clear whether Trump and Congress would let the Fed do that again,” 

Mario Draghi may have saved the eurozone not once, but twice.

Mario Draghi’s 2012 commitment to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the single currency, is backed by a credible threat. But at a national level, no country in the eurozone is monetarily sovereign. 

Mr Draghi has created something novel — a “contingent safe asset” if you will. 

If you comply with the fiscal rules in the eurozone, you are eligible for bond-buying programmes carried out by the ECB, and are therefore as good as credit risk-free. 

The eurozone now has a mechanism to deal with fiscal freeriding and has clear conditions for the creation of safe assets. 





Danes and Swedes voted No to the euro, and the Irish voted No to the Nice Treaty.

The Laeken Summit that December took place behind a fortress of razor wire. In that moment of soul searching EU leaders briefly flirted with retreat.


A Convention modelled on Philadelphia in 1787, and partly composed of MPs from national parliaments, would draw up an EU constitution to restore “democratic legitimacy”.
I mention this forgotten episode because what then happened is such a lesson. Insiders hijacked the process. The dissident utterings of nation state champions were quashed in the working groups. 
Ambrose 22 May 2019

EUs grundlag - The Constitution



No European election ever deflects the EU deep state one inch from its rigid course

Manfred Weber leads the centre-Right (EEP) block and Udo Bullmann leads the Socialists. 

Klaus Welle runs the engine room as secretary-general of the parliament, while his countryman Martin Selmayr operates in tandem as head of the Commission apparatus. 

The nodal points are in capable German hands.

The game is symbolism. European elections are to promote the brand at home and gain fungible funding 

Ambrose 22 May 2019

2019-05-22

How inflation could return, catching the Fed off guard

While persistently subdued – and, on nearly $11 trillion of global bonds, negative – interest rates may be causing resource misallocations and undercutting long-term financial security for households, elevated asset prices have heightened the risk of future financial instability.

Also, investors have become highly (and happily) dependent on central banks, when they should be prudently more fearful of them.

Mohamed A. El-Erian MarketWatch  May 22, 2019 

- A decision to base policy on measures of money presupposes that we can locate money.

As far as we can tell Alan Greenspan was right only a single time after he took the helm of the Fed in August 1987. 

Said the Maestro:

- A decision to base policy on measures of money presupposes that we can locate money. And that has become an increasingly dubious proposition.

Note that these words were spoken on June 28, 2000 in the very inner sanctum of the Eccles Building. They were recorded word for word in the FOMC meeting transcript and released with a ten year lag 

Friedman had been a closet Keynesian all along, and had erroneously claimed that GDP growth and prosperity were a function of money supply growth, and that the change rate of the latter, in turn, could be managed to nearly the decimal point by the rate of growth in high-powered money ladled out by the Fed.

David Stockman May 21st, 2019

Monetarism

Alan Greenspan

2019-05-21

Fed chair tempers fears over corporate debt meltdown

Powell says he is confident financial system can withstand business sector losses

FT 21 May 2019

2019-05-18

Två visioner om Europa står mot varandra.

 Å ena sidan ett EU med alltmer överstatlighet, som präglas av legalism, där det alltid finns ett nytt fördrag eller ny konvention som medlemsstaterna har att underkasta sig. Ett Europas förenta stater.

Å andra sidan ett EU av relativt självständiga nationer, men där man samarbetar om det man inte kan lösa på egen hand. Där ingen yttre makt tvingar demokratiskt valda regeringar att genomföra politik deras folk avskyr. Ett europeiskt nationernas förbund.

Detta är vår tids stora politiska konflikt.

2019-05-15

The Hong Kong dollar has fallen to a 33-year low and is testing the limits of the enclave's currency board regime

The enormity of the pension funding gap

EU:s överstatliga lagstiftningsmakt måste förstås användas med måtta, sans och balans.

”Gårdagens suveräna stater kan inte längre lösa dagens problem”, skrev Jean Monnet, mannen som presenterade idén bakom kol- och stålunionen. 

Den beslutsmetod som Monnet föreslog innebar därför ett helt nytt sätt att klubba tvingande lagar som skulle gälla över nationsgränserna.

Det var en uppseendeväckande tanke, också på 1950-talet. Många av nationalstatens ivrigaste försvarare – från höger till vänster – avskydde Monnets metod, och så är det än i denna dag.

EU:s överstatliga lagstiftningsmakt måste förstås användas med måtta, sans och balans.

Monnet underskattade det demokratiska underskott som byggdes in i unionen och därför ska EU-makten inte lägga sig i allting. 






2019-05-09

Carl Bildt och Marcus Wallenberg ojar sig över den svaga svenska kronan

De är inte ensamma. Flera andra företrädare för bankerna gör sammaledes.

Det är inte konstigt med tanke på att bankerna under många har tjänat stora pengar på den enkla affärsidén att låna pengar i utlandet på typ 30 dagar för att sedan låna ut det på typ 30 år till bostadsköpare.

När kronan sjunker, eller om det är dollarn som stiger, så blir bankernas lån i utlandet dyrare att betala tillbaka.

Carl Bildt har ju också ett förflutet som försvarare av växelkursen. Det blev dyrt för många svenskar men bankerna fick tid på sig att lösa in så mycket av sina utlandslån att de inte gick i konkurs.

"Strax före klockan 14.00 växlades Luxonens jumbolån. Sedan stängde Riksbanken"
Tomas Fischer, Fokus, 5 september 2008


Det var också detta intervenerande, att man stödköpte kronor, som enligt Hans Tson Söderström och Nils Lundgren blev det kronförsvaret som kostade skattebetalarna mest, frånsett de svårberäknade följderna för hela samhällsekonomin.

I den läsvärda boken Ekonomisk Politik. En vänbok till Assar Lindbeck (SNS Förlag 1995) bidrar de båda ekonomerna med ett intressant kapitel kallat Kronförsvaret hösten 1992- var det värt sitt pris?

Om kostnaderna skriver de: 
Kostnaderna utgörs av valutaförluster och produktionsbortfall. Båda är svåra att kvantifiera av både begreppsmässiga och datamässiga skäl. Den svenska staten försämrade via riksbanken och riksgälden sin nettoställning i utländsk valuta med omkring 250 miljarder kronor under hösten 1992.

 I sin slutsats skriver de: 
Den absoluta lejonparten av de totala kostnaderna för Riksbanken åsamkades under den sista veckan före kronans fall, när Riksbanken frångick sin tidigare strategi att försvara kronan genom räntehöjningar för att i stället övergå till direkta interventioner på valutamarknaden.

Sedan kommer en anmärkningsvärd mening:

Detta strategibyte gav privata aktörer som litat på Riksbankens utfästelser om fast kronkurs möjlighet att gå ur sina valutalån, men öppnade samtidigt möjlighet för utländska och inhemska spekulanter att ta position mot kronan. 

En kanske önskvärd omfördelning av oundvikliga växelkursförluster inom Sverige kunde genomföras endast till priset av ytterligare förluster för Riksbanken vilka motsvarades av privata spekulationsvinster i Sverige och omvärlden.

Utdrag ur kapitlet:Hur mycket kostade kronförsvaret 1992? i Vad hände med Sveriges ekonomi? SOU 1999:150 av Torsten Sverenius sid 275 ff.


2019-05-07

Long-suffering market bears, like John Hussman

Hussman’s flagship $312-million Strategic Growth Fund  focuses on “the protection of capital during unfavorable market conditions,”

He says a 65% retreat would be a “run-of-the-mill” decline. 

He pointed to this chart of margin-adjusted price-to-earnings, which he says is one of the most reliable valuation measures he’s tested across historic market cycles:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho-hum-a-65-market-plunge-would-be-run-of-the-mill-fund-manager-says-2019-05-07

More about Hussman

2019-05-03

Equity prices, bond prices and the breakdown of monetarism

Equity prices are driven by prospects for real economic activity and the expected corporate profits that will result from it. 

But bond prices are driven by the prospects for inflation and the expected interest rates that will result from it. 

In the pre-crisis world, strong economic growth almost invariably meant higher inflation and, therefore, higher interest rates. 

But during the past decade, the links between economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy that were taken for granted in the 1980s and 1990s have completely broken down. 

The pre-crisis dogma that inflation “is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” has turned out to be nonsense, at least for advanced economies, where central banks have printed money like wallpaper without any inflationary response.

Anatole Kaletsky Project Syndicate 23 April 2019


Kaletsky menar att det var Paul Volcker som ledde återgången till "demand management".


Monetarism

Secular Stagnation






After 40 years of market fundamentalism, America and like-minded European countries are failing the vast majority of their citizens.

At this point, only a new social contract – guaranteeing citizens health care, education, retirement security, affordable housing, and decent work for decent pay – can save capitalism and liberal democracy.

Joseph E. Stiglitz Project Syndicate 3 May 2019 

About Stiglitz at IntCom


Did inflation targeting fail? 
How can it have gone so wrong?

Martin Wolf, Financial Times, May 5 2009