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Iran holds the trump card   The last pre-war shipments are arriving in Europe, if they have not already been sucked away by desperate Asian buyers willing to pay higher prices. All Tehran must do is survive for another few months and wait for the oil crunch to really bite. It would take at least 200,000 US ground troops and months of fighting to secure the long Iranian coastline and knock out the remaining missile launchers and drone units hidden in the mountains. US navy is now expected to board and seize Chinese-flagged ships, constituting a direct attack on China’s energy supply chain. This is arguably an act of war – “the law of the jungle”, as Xi Jinping put it on Tuesday morning.  “We will never allow any foreign force to bully, oppress or subjugate us. Anyone who would attempt to do so will find themselves on collision force with a great wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people,” he said. The world market for physical oil is already under extreme str...

Även om Trumps Magarörelse så småningom blir av med den politiska makten är det inte sannolikt att ett nytt styre under Demokraterna skulle rulla tillbaka handelspolitiken.  När de hade chansen under president Biden lät de Trumps tullar bestå. Rudolf Kjellén, statsvetarprofessor i Uppsala vid förra sekelskiftet, var bland de första att använda begreppet geopolitik. Under 1960- och 70-talen fick det diskrediterade konceptet en renässans. Globaliseringens historia kan delas in i sex faser. Första världskriget krossade den frihandelsinriktade världshandeln Efter att kanonerna tystnat såg den engelske ekonomen John Maynard Keynes tillbaka på en förlorad värld: ”Vilken enastående episod i människans ekonomiska framsteg den tid var som tog slut i augusti 1914! Bretton Woods-systemet fungerade ungefär som tänkt i 30 år. År 1971 upphävde president Nixon möjligheten att växla dollar mot guld. De tusenåriga banden mellan pengar och metall försvann över en natt. Trump får också vatten på sin ...

Replanting themselves and their families in lands they find more affordable and safe.   A millions-strong diaspora is studying, telecommuting and retiring overseas. The new American dream, for some of its citizens, is to no longer live there. Sunset in Cadaques Spain. Tony Hicks/Associated Press On a conference call last month hosted by Expatsi, a relocation company, almost 400 Americans signed up to learn how to move to Albania.  The former Stalinist state offers a special visa allowing U.S. citizens to live and work there, with no tax on foreign income for a year, no questions asked. Michael Le Blanc, a 56-year-old former creative producer at Adobe and Paramount now freelancing from Lisbon, moved with his two children after the second active shooter scare at his 8-year-old son’s Los Angeles school.  In the six months since, his wife, Stephanie, a 42-year-old academic adviser in the U.S., has found work selling Lisbon real estate to incoming Americans.  Some 58...

Those of us who have long admired America as a kindred spirit and upholder of the happiest flowering of global prosperity ever known can only watch with horror as the country hurtles towards a full-blown constitutional crisis.  The Supreme Court ruling on Donald Trump’s tariffs – or rather his reaction to it – compounds the unfolding national tragedy. The White House statement announcing the new tariffs is one of the oddest documents I have ever seen.  It proclaims in bold ink that the US has a structural trade deficit of $1.2tn. It says the US net international investment position has collapsed to minus 90pc of GDP, meaning America is in hock to the world for a net $27.6tn. Drawing further attention to this is akin to screaming “fire!” in a crowded theatre.  These figures are indeed alarming, doubly so since Trump is eroding the reputational underpinnings of both the dollar and US debt. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 24 February 2026 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busine...

The nation’s trade deficit fell in 2025 by a meager 0.2% to $902 billion, but only due to a large and quirky increase in gold  Imports actually rose almost 5% last year and hit a record high.  China was the main loser, with U.S . imports of goods tumbling 28% in 2025. MarketWatch 19 February 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-trade-deficit-might-be-tariff-proof-imports-jump-to-record-high-in-2025-a518d1bc EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, Thursday February 19, 2026 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December and Annual 2025 The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $70.3 billion in December ,  up $17.3 billion from $53.0 billion in November, revised. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2025

Who’s afraid of the big bad trade deficit? Last year the UK’s trade deficit in goods stood at 8 per cent of GDP, its largest since consistent records began almost three decades ago.  That was roughly double the US figure. IMF has lumped the two countries together, as the two single largest contributors to excessive current account deficits. Soumaya Keynes 19 February 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/af9b839a-ee4b-480c-9a03-d5dc7694c1e7 Soumaya Keynes became economics columnist for the Financial Times after eight years at The Economist. https://www.ft.com/soumaya-keynes The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes is a podcast from the FT bringing listeners a deeper understanding of the most complex global economic issues in easy-to-digest weekly episodes. Listen to new episodes every Friday on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you get your podcasts. Det är dollarn bakom allt - Monetary Creation and Destruction del 5 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/det-ar-dollarn-bakom-all...

Valutatorskarnas nota för den starkare kronan sväller och en sjättedel av resultatet åts upp. Nästa kvartal hotar smällen att bli ännu värre. Totalt slutade valutanotan för dem på 59 miljarder kronor i lägre intäkter än det annars hade varit. Det motsvarar en tiondel av försäljningen mot samma kvartal året innan.  För rörelseresultat var den negativa effekten ännu större, en sjättedel av rörelseresultat eller 12 miljarder kronor.  Mikael Vilenius DI 17 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/analys/kronrallyts-varsta-forlorare/ Kronans oväntat kraftiga lyft ställer till det för både Riksbanken och svensk export    https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/kronans-ovantat-kraftiga-lyft-staller.html

Deutsche Bank’s global currency strategist is bearish on the dollar. If the U.S. market gets riskier, the dollar no longer works as a safe-haven. Instead of rallying during periods of risk aversion, a chart of the dollar’s relationship with equities demonstrates, according to Saravelos, this not to be true. Saravelos points out that over the past year the dollar has de-correlated from the S&P If the dollar is unattractive as a portfolio hedge, the more incentive there is to reduce dollar exposure. MarketWatch Feb. 12, 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/currency-strategist-who-incurred-bessents-wrath-exposes-safe-haven-myth-of-the-dollar-b4e1125d

  As long as the US runs a trade deficit and sends dollars overseas, foreign countries must find a home for those dollar revenues, with Treasuries remaining one of the main destinations, said Jim O’Neill, the former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. What’s more, the actual decline in China’s holdings may be smaller than official figures suggest. Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, estimates that China’s “true” holdings of US Treasuries exceed $1 trillion, far above the $683 billion reported by the US Treasury. That’s because Beijing may have obscured its footprint by shifting assets to custodians in Europe. Belgium — whose holdings are considered to include some of those Chinese accounts — has seen its Treasury ownership quadruple since the end of 2017 to $481 billion. Bloomberg February 11, 2026   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/china-s-years-long-retreat-from-us-treasuries-flags-bigger-risks 11 februari 2026, 08:56

A question is whether current holders of US debt would be willing or even able to bear the costs of selling it, given the logic of mutual assured destruction (MAD).  If de-dollarizing governments were to coordinate a mass sale of US Treasuries and other assets, the damage to their own central banks and private financial institutions’ balance sheets would be twofold.  A mass sale of dollar assets would drive down their price, forcing banks to take a hit; and their remaining dollar assets would also fall sharply in value. Moreover the euro to appreciate sharply, damaging eurozone member states’ substantial export sectors.  Erin Lockwood Project Syndicate Feb 9, 2026 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sell-america-future-of-dollar-hegemony-by-erin-lockwood-2026-02

 It is hard to be a safe haven when trouble starts at home The Economist 5 February 2026 https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/02/05/why-the-dollar-may-have-much-further-to-fall

The idea of the debasement trade  has taken a bit of a beating over the past few days as the prices of gold and silver (and crypto coins) have fallen. King Dollar hasn’t looked so mighty of late, it still sits firmly on the throne as the world’s reserve currency. Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg February 3, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-03/real-nasties-lurk-behind-the-mythical-dollar-debasement-trade

When interest rates are near zero, government debt doesn’t matter. That was the theory at least, in the previous decade, not just from economists on the fringe but also from a few in the mainstream. If rates stayed low, the argument went, the US didn’t need to worry about debt. And it didn’t. Debt increased, and economists who cautioned against it (ahem) were dismissed as cranks, with many of our critics pointing to the history of one nation: Japan, which managed to keep interest rates low even as its debt grew to more than 200% of its GDP. Reality, however, has a way of catching up with theory eventually, and now it has for Japan.   If it increased rates to fight inflation, then debt costs would balloon. If it kept rates low and let inflation run high, the yen would depreciate. In the end, it chose the second option. The timing couldn’t be worse, with Japan mulling more fiscal expansion to revamp its economy, and it’s now risking a full-on debt crisis. The lesson here is that...

The original Plaza Accord, named for the New York hotel where it was signed, was a 1985 commitment by the US and four allies aimed at driving down a super-strong dollar.  OBS den hemska början på 90-talet och 90-talskrisen som det heter i Sverige (Coincidentally, one trade-weighted and inflation-adjusted gauge of the greenback reached its highest point since 1985 at the start of last year.) Bloomberg January 31, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-31/why-there-won-t-be-a-grand-mar-a-lago-accord-new-economy Kronans oväntat kraftiga lyft ställer till det för både Riksbanken och svensk export. Men kom också ihåg alla år i gratis medvind av stadigt sjunkande kronkurs. Nils Åkesson DI  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/kronans-ovantat-kraftiga-lyft-staller.html Bild från Home Alone 2 A Weaker Dollar Has Always Been Part of Trump’s Plan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/a-weaker-dollar-has-always-been-part-of.html  

S&P 500 stängde på minus 0,4 procent och noterade därmed den tredje dagen i följd på minus.  Dagens i särklass mest dramatiska rörelse stod guld- och silverpriset för och gruvjättar drogs med ned i raset. https://www.di.se/live/gruvras-pa-wall-street-i-sparen-av-historiskt-silverfall/ Donald Trumps nominering av Kevin Warsh  får dollarn att stärkas. https://www.di.se/live/dollarn-gar-mot-basta-dagen-sedan-i-juli/ The selloff accelerated after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, reintroducing uncertainty around the Fed's path and unsettling markets that had been trading a clearly dovish outcome. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-30/crowded-wall-street-trades-show-cracks-in-latest-2026-warning Warsh will need to convince fellow policymakers and investors that his plan to cut rates, driven by a predicted productivity boom from artificial intelligence, will keep inflation low. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...

The euro briefly traded above $1.20 on Wednesday, the highest since 2021. That level has usually caused anguish for the bloc’s export-led economy. In a surprisingly frank admission in July, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said it would be “complicated” if the euro exceeded $1.20. The fiscal cavalry is sadly still quite far away.  It’s frustrating for ECB policymakers and EU politicians that they’ve got inflation under control, but they cannot get growth going.  Adding to the sense of cosmic injustice, the US dollar is weakening despite its much stronger economy.  You can be sure Donald Trump will claim it’s the result of his own genius. Japan took action last Friday that caused the yen to rise in value by about 3%.  Bessent said Wednesday that the US is “absolutely not” intervening to sell the dollar against the yen. Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg January 29, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-01-29/the-us-dollar-is-kicking-europe-while-it-s-down ...

Perils of a Falling Trump Dollar President Trump this week said he thinks a weaker dollar is “great,” but he should be careful what he wishes for.  Many politicians over the years have contemplated a weaker greenback as an economic miracle cure. They often discover that a weak dollar is a liability. How retro. For decades, devaluationists held that a weaker currency boosts exports and employment while a strong currency can throttle an economy.  Credit Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for understanding this and engaging in moral suasion with foreign-exchange traders last week to help Tokyo stabilize the yen.  Credit to him as well for saying Wednesday that the U.S. has always had a “strong dollar policy,” WSJ editorial Jan. 28, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-weak-dollar-economy-exchange-rates-101b278a Sell America Fem faktorer bidrar till att investerare minskar sin USA-exponering JP Morgan Chase har i en analys  https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/apac/en...

In the first 11 months of 2025, the total U.S. trade deficit was $840billion, up from $807 billion between January and November of 2024. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-01-29-2026/card/u-s-trade-deficit-rebounds-after-hitting-lowest-since-2009-JV91w5tHoy1RVWqvGD7N https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/det-ar-dollarn-bakom-allt-monetary.html

The dollar index is currently at a critical support level of 96; a break below this could lead to further declines. After sliding to its lowest level since 2022, the greenback lately has been clinging to a critical support level dating back to 2008. A breach below it could trigger a sharp decline and potentially open the door to further downside for the dollar, according to LPL Financial.  If that level holds, however, it could signal better days ahead for the buck. Isabel Wang MarketWatch Jan. 29, 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-battered-dollar-could-fall-even-further-if-it-breaks-below-this-key-level-ec6cada6 RE: Jag har länge haft mina aningar, men nu med Ai kan man hitta svar. Research examining 158,391 strategy configurations across 22 financial instruments over 14 years found that support levels predict bounces at a rate of just 28.4%, well below the 50% threshold that would indicate actual predictive value. https://www.perplexity.ai/search/does-support-levels-supp...

US Dollar Falls Again as Debasement Fears Outweigh Bessent’s Boost The dollar fell, halting Wednesday’s bounce, as the return of the so-called debasement trade outweighed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s affirmation of the strong-greenback policy. + The dollar hasn’t acted like a haven currency for a while as investors prefer tangible havens such as precious metals, DoubleLine Capital chief executive officer Jeffrey Gundlach said. Bessent had offered support for the sinking greenback Wednesday, saying “the US always has a strong dollar policy.” “Bessent is employing a bit of strategic ambiguity,”  The debasement trade is a bet on a long-term decline in the dollar’s purchasing power due to concerns over unpredictable US policy making, unsustainably large deficits and increasing US isolation. Bloomberg 29 January 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-29/dollar-falls-again-as-debasement-fears-outweigh-bessent-s-boost Gundlach https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q...