BNP Paribas’s possible, if unlikely, gray swans
U.S. technology stock crash.
The Magnificent 7 tech stocks now make up 33% of the S&P 500 by market cap, and with valuations already high, a return to the long-term price/earnings average alone would mean a 30% selloff
Our economics team’s simulations suggest that a large equity correction, via the wealth effect, could spark a recession in the U.S.,” says Hjort and his colleagues.
A trigger for gray swan is tariff and immigration policies sparking higher inflation, forcing Fed rate hikes.
Gray swans, the strategists add, aren’t always negative.
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