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I december 2024 fick amerikanen Richard Z Wimmel ett brev från sitt försäkringsbolag. Budskapet: hans hus, i en branddrabbad del av Kalifornien, går inte att försäkra längre. Riskerna är för stora. Och han är inte ensam. I New York Times, som skildrat Richard Z Wimmels öde, rapporterades i december förra året att 1,9 miljoner amerikaner fått sina försäkringar uppsagda. När förra vinterns omfattande bränder slog till i Kalifornien stod tusentals drabbade oförsäkrade. Nu varnar Finansinspektionen för att Sverige står för liknande risker, om än i betydligt mindre omfattning. Särskilt bostäder i områden med stor risk för översvämning ligger i farozonen. Bilden är från översvämningar i Gävle 2021, en av de kostsammaste händelserna  för försäkringsbolagen någonsin. Foto: Fredrik Sandberg/TT DN 9 februari 2026 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/maste-hoja-premierna-sa-slar-klimatkrisen-mot-din-forsakring/ Florida’s housing market in an era of increasingly destructive climate disasters https://engl...

Prices for U.S. condominiums posted their biggest annual decline since 2012 earlier last year.  Single-family home prices have also slowed, but they are still up from the year-ago levels. The Florida condo market has taken a major hit since the Surfside collapse, partly due to new state requirements to make sure older buildings are structurally sound. WSJ 1 January 2026 https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-condo-market-hasnt-been-this-bad-in-over-a-decade-9f3e7256 Buildings in Florida are sinking https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/buildings-in-florida-are-sinking.html

  Den 29 september 2015 på Lloyds i London höll  Mark Carney ett tal,  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2015/breaking-the-tragedy-of-the-horizon-climate-change-and-financial-stability och det kom att gå till centralbankshistorien även om Londons finanssektor mest gäspade åt analysen.   Själva problemet, menade Carney, var att klimatförändringarna innebar en sorts finansiell risk som ingen av de vanliga krishanterarna kunde greppa rent tidsmässigt. Marknaden tänker i kvartal, politikerna i mandatperioder och centralbankerna – kanske två eller tre år framåt när det gäller penningpolitiken, och uppemot ett decennium när det gäller den finansiella stabiliteten. Klimatriskerna däremot är något som byggs upp här och nu, men som först slår tjugo eller trettio år in i framtiden. Det här var en typ av finansiell risk som med Mark Carneys ord hela tiden tycktes ”ligga långt borta vid horisonten”.  När extremvädret väl börjar påverka balansräkningar, opinionsmät...

 ”Vi närmar oss snabbt temperaturnivåer där försäkringsbolag inte längre kommer kunna erbjuda täckning för många av dessa risker.  Matematiskt faller det sönder. De premier som krävs överstiger vad människor eller företag kan bära. Hela regioner blir oförsäkringsbara”,  konstaterade Günther Thallinger, styrelseledamot i Allianz, ett av världens största försäkringsbolag, i ett uppmärksammat inlägg i mars i år. ”Om försäkring inte längre finns tillgänglig blir andra finansiella tjänster det också. Ett hus som inte kan försäkras kan inte belånas. Ingen bank kommer att bevilja lån för oförsäkrad egendom. Kreditmarknaderna fryser till” DI 7 oktober 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/varningen-klimatkrisen-kan-bli-nasta-finanskris/ It’s hard to overstate the role that insurance plays in the modern American economy.  Banks won’t make mortgage loans for uninsurable properties; without those loans, the real estate market slows to a crawl, which in turn eats away household wealth ...

  The median home price soared nearly 75% to $419,000 in three years,  Fem millar typ, vad får man för det i Sverige? transforming the character of this middle-income community that for decades has catered to retirees and small investors.  Now, three years later, “For Sale” signs line every other block. Open houses are deserted for hours. Foreclosures are ticking up.  Home builders are listing half-built shells at discounts as they abandon projects to cut losses. Locals say the lack of traffic has led to an increase in vehicles speeding through empty residential streets. “Cape Coral is the worst housing market in America right now,” said José Echevarria, a Realtor. “I don’t think we’re at the bottom yet.” Wall Street Journal 30 June 2025 https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/florida-cape-coal-home-prices-3f64a0df

  Craig D. Ramsey thought he was getting a deal.  In 2016, amid reports that San Francisco’s infamous Millennium Tower was sinking, he paid $13 million for a penthouse there, convinced that once the building’s structural problems were rectified, the unit’s value would soar. The purchase price was a significant discount from the nearly $20 million the previous owner, the late venture capitalist Tom Perkins, spent to buy and build out the unit. The deal speaks to a more pervasive problem at the luxury condo building. The gleaming, nearly 60-story tower was the tallest residential building in San Francisco when it opened in 2009, boasting high-end amenities and views of the Golden Gate Bridge and the Bay Bridge. Then reports emerged that the building had sunk more than a foot and was tilting. More than $100 million was spent on an infrastructure project that engineers say has resolved the problem and stabilized the foundation as of 2023. However, values at the building haven’t re...

Houston, as the saying nearly goes, has a problem.  The city is one of 25 American metropolises to be officially sinking, according to a new study using measurements from space. The issue of subsidence affects not only coastal regions, where sea levels are rising due to climate change, but inland settlements too.  Groundwater extraction hollows out the sediment beneath the surface, while urban development piles on the weight above.  Some parts of Houston are sinking by more than 10mm a year. That seems paltry by the standards of other notoriously sinking cities, such as Jakarta and Tehran About half of Jakarta — home to 11mn people — now lies below sea level.  China is a slumping hotspot, with nearly half of its cities, including Beijing, heading downwards. Mexico City is another Lagos as another megacity under siege. Anjana Ahuja Financial Times 14 May 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/fc93b7c1-edf8-4b8a-8ba8-246c1cb3cbd4 Jakarta, the fastest-sinking megacity on the p...

  Governments and banks will struggle to cope with the soaring costs of natural catastrophes such as floods and wildfires More households will be unable to insure their homes  and  the mounting losses from natural disasters could destabilise banks,  Petra Hielkema, chair of the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, told the Financial Times. Financial Times 3 February 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/32b588a7-b470-4012-8bc2-f9eea3f17902

Artificially cheap insurance will only keep encouraging homeowners to build in areas vulnerable to natural disaster.   The staggering cost of this month’s wildfires — with insured damages estimated to exceed $20 billion, even before new fires erupted this week — should make clear the status quo is unsustainable.  Forcing residents to follow stricter building codes when rebuilding can only mitigate some fire risks. Californians also need to understand and grapple with the true costs of living in dangerous areas. Bloomberg Editorial  23 January 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-23/los-angeles-wildfire-damage-should-lead-to-pricier-insurance

  The wildfires, fanned by the powerful seasonal winds known as the Santa Anas, began in the wealthy coastal Pacific Palisades neighbourhood on the morning of January 7.  Other fires soon broke out across the city and its suburb The potential economic loss has been estimated at between $135bn and $150bn,  far higher than the $16.5bn record set by the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California, which was the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in the state’s history. Financial Times 17 January 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/ad9a2099-882f-4236-ab61-20fdcb39f023 How the Left Turned California Into a Paradise Lost Gavin Newsom promised to ‘Trump-proof’ the Golden State. If only he’d fireproofed it instead. Wall Street Journal 12 January 2025 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-the-left-turned-california-into-a-paradise-lost-government-policy-wildfires-48b88d6a Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 19 januari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/rolfs-lanktips-19-januari-2025.htm...

  Financial markets, if left to their own devices, would naturally force Americans to confront the ugly realities of our changing climate and deter them from flocking to places where human habitation is increasingly untenable.  Unfortunately, this basic system of supply and demand has been stymied by regional and federal policies — policies supported by both Democratic and Republican lawmakers in both blue and red states  who buckle under the short-term political pressure to keep home insurance premiums artificially low. New York Times 16 January 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/16/opinion/la-fires-climate-home-insurance.html  Where Does L.A.’s Luxury Home Market Go From Here? https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/luxury-homes/los-angeles-high-end-housing-market-fires-8b595df7 De sex partiernas representanter lät meddela att de hade ingått vad som kom att kallas Decemberöverenskommelsen. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/gott-nytt-ar.html Rösträtten var ett all...

  – De stora internationella återförsäkringsbolagen har till stor del dragit sig ur att försäkra skogsbränder i Kalifornien De få försäkringar som erbjuds kommer ”extremt dyra”. SvD 9 januari 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/alpo9a/hollywood-dyraste-villor-saknar-forsakringar Their Wealth Is in Their Homes. Their Homes Are Now Ash. https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/los-angeles-fire-housing-shortage-a1424502 California Was Already in Home-Insurance Crisis Before Los Angeles Infernos  Leading insurers, including State Farm and Allstate, have stopped selling new home-insurance policies in the state, saying rate increases approved by regulators were insufficient to cover their losses, including from the devastating wildfires of 2017 and 2018. Wall Street Journal 9 January 2025 https://www.wsj.com/finance/california-home-insurance-los-angeles-palisades-fire-3cce96a9 Förödande skogsbrand i Los Angeles – invånare flyr i panik; försäkringsproblem Banks won’t make mortgage loans for uninsurable...

SvT 8 januari 2025 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/forodande-skogsbrand-i-los-angeles-invanare-flyr-i-panik Skogsbränder härjar i Kalifornien SvD/TT 8 januari 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/4B0l5V/30000-ska-evakuera-i-kalifornien Thousands told to abandon homes as huge wildfire rips through Los Angeles suburbs https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5y81zyp1ext A perfect storm; Los Angeles is burning By January 8th, the biggest fire burned across nearly 3,000 acres in the Pacific Palisades, a wealthy neighbourhood on the coast, causing at least 30,000 people to flee their homes.  Local officials ordered parts of Santa Monica, home to about 90,000 people, to evacuate too.  Until recently, January wouldn’t have been considered part of fire season, even in fire-prone California.  The ordeal reminds Angelenos of their vulnerability.  At any given time Los Angeles is at risk of fire, flood, extreme heat, mudslides and earthquakes.  A county of nearly 10m people The Economist 8 ...

Dozens of luxury condos, hotels and other buildings in southeast Florida are sinking at a surprising rate, researchers reported in a recent study. Miami faces a dual threat: land subsidence and rising sea levels due to climate change – a combination that increases the city’s vulnerability to coastal flooding, storm surge and erosion. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/23/climate/florida-condos-hotels-sinking/index.html

  People seem to feel that they have been taxed, regulated, bossed around and intimidated by left-of-center politicians for decades — but the results are bad and have been getting worse. New York, where I live, and Florida, where I often visit, provide an interesting contrast. What do New Yorkers get for these vast sums, generated by the highest tax rates in the country?  (If you are well off in New York City, you pay nearly as much in income taxes as in London, Paris or Berlin — without free higher education or health care.)  New York’s poverty rate is higher than Florida’s.  New York has a slightly lower rate of homeownership and a much higher rate of homelessness. Despite spending more than twice as much on education per student, New York has educational outcomes — graduation rates, eighth-grade test scores — that are roughly the same as Florida’s. If Democrats do not learn some hard lessons from the poor governance in many blue cities and states, they will be see...

  When we think about the economic damage of climate change, most of us probably think about the physical destruction wrought by mammoth disasters like hurricanes, wildfires and droughts: Bungalows tumbling into the sea. Houses turned to ash. Acres of dead crops. That sort of thing.  But the quieter, longer-term effects of global warming cut even deeper. Consider western North Carolina. The state’s tab for that could be $53 billion, Governor Roy Cooper has said.  But all of that physical wreckage also means businesses are closed, tourists aren’t visiting, people aren’t working, and few are splurging on luxury goods when many are still struggling just to get drinking water.  That adds up to financial damage that dwarfs the physical one. Heat and rainfall that were unimaginable at the time of design and construction are causing roofs and HVAC systems to fail, roads and railways to buckle and foundations and plumbing to shift and crack.  Maintenance and repair cost...

Are home prices in some areas being driven down by people fleeing the parts of the Sunshine State most prone to flooding and high insurance costs?  Or are developers snatching up storm-ravaged land to build new — and more expensive — homes in those same places?  Or are people moving just in from the shore, displacing those on higher ground and making housing there less affordable? The answer to all these questions is yes. Finally, everybody needs to accept that part of this process will inevitably involve giving up the dream of a single-family mansion on the beach or in a lovely wildfire zone. Climate change is increasingly turning such dreams into nightmares. “We don’t let people build on crumbling cliffs or active volcanoes. Why do we let them build in other risky places?” Siders asked.  “The debate is over the right level of risk. But right now we’re not even willing to engage in that debate.” Mark Gongloff Bloomberg 17 October 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/opin...

  The US president has cancelled his trip to Germany,to oversee the response to the hurricane, urged those in the storm’s path to evacuate as a matter of “life and death”. On average, the Atlantic basin experiences about seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes a year. The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs until Nov 30. Telegraph 9 October 2024 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/08/weatherman-on-verge-of-tears-hurricane-milton/ Hurricane Milton Barrels Toward Florida https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-barrels-toward-florida.html Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 9 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-9-oktober-2024.html

  More and more homeowners lack coverage they can’t afford or aren’t even aware they need. It mostly comes down to flood insurance — or the lack thereof.  Less than 2.5% of homes in Helene’s path were insured against rising waters, Bloomberg News reported. In Buncombe County, North Carolina, where hard-hit Asheville is situated, just 0.7% of homes had flood insurance, according to an NBC News estimate. In fact, only about 4% of all US homeowners have flood insurance, according to FEMA, mainly through its insurance program.  Even in areas at high risk of flooding, less than a third of homes are insured against rising waters, according to a 2018 estimate by the Wharton School. Mark Gongloff Bloomberg 8 October 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-08/fema-s-national-flood-insurance-program-needs-urgent-fixes Hurricane Milton Barrels Toward Florida https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-barrels-toward-florida.html Florida, why is Tampa B...

  When will Hurricane Milton hit Florida? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c981q381p58o Hurricane Milton: President Biden postpones Germany trip US President Joe Biden has postponed a planned trip to Germany as Florida braces for Hurricane Milton, which he says could be the "worst storm in a century" to hit the state.  "I just don't think I can be out of the country at this time," he said at the White House on Tuesday Deutsche Welle 8 October 2024 https://www.dw.com/en/hurricane-milton-president-biden-postpones-germany-trip/a-70437209 Milton, the Atlantic’s strongest hurricane this year, is set to approach the Florida peninsula as a catastrophic Category 5 storm, bearing down on a region still struggling to recover from Helene’s devastation. Milton now tops Hurricane Beryl, which raked Texas, Mexico and the Caribbean in July, as the most powerful Atlantic storm this season. With winds this intense, Milton is capable of collapsing homes, flattening trees and tri...