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Yenens kraftiga uppgång sätter återigen fokus på så kallade carry trades och väcker frågor om huruvida en omfattande avveckling av dessa positioner skulle kunna dämpa uppgången på de globala aktiemarknaderna. Investerare har länge utnyttjat Japans extremt låga räntor genom att låna billigt i yen och placera kapitalet i tillgångar med högre avkastning, exempelvis amerikanska aktier eller tillgångar på tillväxtmarknader. En snabbare avveckling av carry trades skulle kunna tvinga fonder att sälja sina mest likvida och lönsamma innehav för att frigöra likviditet, vilket skulle kunna drabba de teknikaktier som drivit årets börsuppgång samt andra tillväxtaktier. Bloomberg 9/11 2026 Yen Rally Puts Global Stocks on Watch for Carry Trade Unwind The yen's surge is putting the carry trade back in focus, raising questions about whether a bigger unwind could dent the rally in global stocks. Investors have long taken advantage of Japan's ultra-low interest rates by borrowing cheaply in yen a...

 Techrally gav nytt rekord på Wall Street.  Fallande oljepriser eldade på riskaptiten. https://www.di.se/live/techrally-gav-nytt-rekord-pa-wall-street/ Vändpunkten 31 mars 2026 31 mars Irans president uppges vara beredd att avsluta kriget. Sales of Bacardi’s St-Germain liqueur are growing faster than Campari’s Aperol this summer. Campari, Aperol and the Italian group’s hot pink Sarti Rosa have flown off the shelves thanks to their use in spritz cocktails, popular for their Instagram-friendly bright colours and lower alcohol content. Financal Times 2 August 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/9b9a6587-fef4-41c7-864f-4e29dff74afc?syn-25a6b1a6=1 This time Japan’s Ministry of Finance had help from a significant quarter — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.  This matters beyond Japanese shores because the carry trade — the strategy of borrowing in yen and parking in a higher-yielding currency like the Mexican peso — has been an ultra-reliable source of profits.  Over five ye...

Following a significant market disruption in the summer of 2024. Goldman Sachs strategist Stuart Jenkins attributed the resurgence to a combination of wide interest-rate gaps and subdued currency volatility. MarketWatch 10 July 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-hedge-fund-trade-blamed-for-a-massive-market-blowup-in-2024-has-made-a-big-comeback-goldman-sachs-says-f2308a78 What Are Carry Trades? 2. How does it work?  According to economic theory, the strategy shouldn’t work at all.   3. So why does it work? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/what-s-a-carry-trade-definition-how-it-works-and-key-risks Perpexity Ai tells more https://www.perplexity.ai/computer/tasks/9b14230e-e3ee-4ae5-b91f-9e1175ad7e39?view=thread

Japan’s financial institutions are known to be big buyers of U.S. Treasurys, and have helped to bolster the global bond market in the past through what’s known as the yen-funded carry trade.  This trade involves borrowing in yen to buy a higher-yielding currency like the dollar, which is then invested in bonds of that currency.  But that era appears to be ending, putting both Treasurys and U.S. stocks at risk, according to one strategist. If sharply higher yields on Japanese government bonds entice the country’s investors to return home, “the unwinding of the carry trade could cause a loud sucking sound in U.S. financial assets,” said strategist Albert Edwards of the French-based bank Société Générale. “Most commentators attribute the rise in U.S. 30y yield to 5% to U.S. domestic fiscal developments without putting it into a wider global context. Both the U.S. Treasury and equity markets are vulnerable, having been inflated by Japanese flows of funds (as has the dollar),” Edwa...

The tectonic plates of global finance continue to move. The Magnificent Seven are down 21% from the peak Last week, Germany unveiled plans for the most dramatic expansion of fiscal policy since the nation reunified in 1990.  Meanwhile, Japan seems to have broken out of a deflationary slump that started that same year — although nobody wants to say this too loudly.  The 10-year yield on Japanese government bonds has leapt to 1.6%, its highest since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis Low Japanese bond yields have provided a source of cheap funding for the rest of the world — simply borrow in Japan at negative rates, park in an investment that actually pays a return, and feast on the difference.  The rise in JGB yields has narrowed the differentials with other bonds — particularly Mexico, whose high rates made it a popular carry trade destination John Authers Bloomberg 11 mars 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-11/add-to-moving-parts-list-japan-selloff-car...

The way it unfolded so rapidly — and just as quickly faded out — is exposing how vulnerable markets are to a strategy that hedge funds exploited to bankroll hundreds of billions of dollars of bets in virtually every corner of the world. The yen carry trade was a sure-fire recipe for easy profits: Just borrow in Japan, then plow it into Mexican bonds yielding over 10%, Nvidia’s soaring shares or even Bitcoin. Then came the spark: an interest rate hike in Japan. The BOJ’s benchmark is now 0.25% Then, seemingly all at once, investors bailed out of the trade According to GlobalData TS Lombard, there was some $1.1 trillion piled into the strategy, assuming all overseas borrowing in Japan since the end of 2022 was used to finance it and domestic investors used leverage for their foreign purchases. “Further carry-trade unwinding seems likely but the most significant and destructive part of this bubble-burst is now behind us,” Steven Barrow The bubble, as Barrow called it, has decades-old root...

An unwinding of global carry trades is helping to jolt markets around the world.  People like a thing, so they buy it, so it goes up. More people like it, so they buy more of it, so it goes up more. It goes up steadily enough that people think “ehh I should borrow some money to buy even more of this thing,” so they do.  Eventually a lot of very leveraged investors own a lot of the thing. Then something goes wrong with the thing, its price goes down, the leveraged investors get margin calls, and they have to sell the thing to pay back their loans.  Wall Street has for months been minting money with various strategies tied to stock tranquility, often via products that sell protective options in order to juice returns.  But the scale of the boom in these so-called short volatility bets had stirred worries of what would happen when turbulence hit. That test has now arrived.  Matt Levine Bloomberg 5 August 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-05/th...

Looming European interest-rate cuts have set the euro up as a prime candidate for funding carry trades, adding further pressure on the common currency. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are recommending borrowing the euro to buy riskier, higher-yielding currencies.  The key rate in the euro area is expected to end 2024 as low as 2.5%, compared with 4% for the US.  euro the worst weekly performance of its Group-of-10 peers. Bloomberg 28 januari 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-28/goldman-jpmorgan-see-euro-challenging-yen-as-carry-trade-funder Rolf Englund om räntearbitrage Marknadsekonomisk Tidskrift 1987-10-08 https://www.internetional.se/carrytrade.htm