Englund

There will be more interest-rate cuts next year — and these reductions will have little to no effect on long-term rates Longer-term bonds are more affected by market forces. Their yields reflect expected future inflation, inflation risk, and a risk premium for holding an asset with more price variability than a short-term bond. Inflation appears to be holding steady at 3%, yet the Fed has already started easing by cutting rates and ending quantitative tightening.   A stubbornly high 10-year rate will no doubt frustrate many politicians, not to mention central bankers. It means mortgage rates won’t go down, makes servicing the national debt more expensive, and raises the likelihood of a “credit event” as firms’ debt comes due and they can’t afford to refinance.   Alternatively, the economy might just slow down, exposing the ineffectiveness of the Fed’s monetary policy. Allison Schrager Bloomberg December 15, 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-12-15/fed-in...

Africa holds about 30% of the world’s critical minerals.  Congo has most of the cobalt. South Africa has the platinum. The continent is loaded with copper, chromium, lithium and rare earths. This is not optional stuff. Cobalt goes in every EV battery. Rare earths go in every semiconductor. Platinum goes in hydrogen fuel cells.  China noticed.  Beijing has spent the past decade writing checks to Africa. Its Belt and Road initiative poured money into African mining, railways to the mines, ports to ship the ore, refineries to process it — and contracts that guarantee Chinese buyers get first dibs on the output. Central bankers are paid to be boring and cautious.  When they start hoarding gold and building alternative settlement systems, something real is happening.  They see what China sees: The dollar’s monopoly made sense when there were no alternatives. Now there are alternatives.  This is coordinated preparation for a world where the dollar shares the thro...

  https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-nasdag-eyes-four-day-losing-streak-dow-sp500-lower-ai-falters-jobs-report   Högre arbetslöshet kan vara goda nyheter Vad hände här? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/vad-hande-har.html Blandat på Wall Street – nytt kursrekord för Tesla https://www.di.se/live/blandat-pa-wall-street-nytt-kursrekord-for-tesla/ Dow and S&P 500 end lower for 3rd straight day after weak U.S. jobs report Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/buy-dip.html Som ni väl redan har förstått är detta inte ett råd, utan en förklaring till vad som sker. If the stock market drops on a given day, retail investors impulsively buy the next day.  Their favourites are clear: on the Robinhood platform, the five most heavily owned stocks are all in the Magnificent Seven.  And with $7.5tn still sitting in money market mutual funds, small US investors may have buying power left. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/w...

Databricks, som leds av den svenske vd:n och medgrundaren Ali Ghodsi, tar in nya pengar utanför börsen till en värdering om 1.250 miljarder kronor. DI 16 december 2025 https://www.di.se/digital/svenskgrundade-databricks-varderas-till-1-250-miljarder-kronor/ Databricks https://www.databricks.com/ Ali Ghodsi (born 1978) is a Swedish-American computer scientist and entrepreneur of Persian origin. Ghodsi received his PhD from KTH. In 2013, he co-founded Databricks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Ghodsi

 relaterat till bankernas verksamheter i Baltikum. Det uppger källor för Bloomberg News. https://ww.di.se/live/uppgifter-brister-i-swedbanks-och-seb-s-riskmodeller/ The European Central Bank has identified significant deficiencies in risk models of top Swedish lenders SEB AB and Swedbank AB for their operations in Baltic countries, according to people familiar with the matter. Swedbank Riga The banks have committed to short- and longer-term measures to address the issues, said the people, who asked to remain anonymous as the interactions were private. Both lenders have previously said that they are working on updating their wider risk models, which are used to determine banks’ capital requirements. Officials for SEB and Swedbank declined to comment beyond those disclosures. An ECB spokesman declined to comment. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/swedish-banks-forced-to-review-risk-models-after-ecb-probe Högsta domstolen tar upp målet mot Swedbanks tidigare vd Birgit...

Den 11 november presenterade EU vad man kallar ”en serie konkreta åtgärder för att stärka, skydda och främja starka och motståndskraftiga demokratier”. Anhängarna säger att det europeiska demokratiskyddet är ett nödvändigt skydd mot utländsk skadlig påverkan, ett länge efterlängtat svar på Ryssland och andra auktoritära regimer. European Democracy Shield (EDS) ska arbeta för att ”demonetisera desinformation genom att ta bort reklamintäkter som belönar falskt innehåll”, sade Henna Virkkunen, vice ordförande för EU-kommissionen med ansvar för teknisk suveränitet, säkerhet och demokrati.  Hon tillade att ”ett paneuropeiskt, oberoende analysnätverk” är avgörande för att försvara informationsintegriteten. EDS utökar också EU:s möjlighet att via den redan genomförda lagen om digitala tjänster (DSA) sätta press på nätplattformar att ta bort inlägg som faller under dessa definitioner. Epoch Times 13 december 2025 https://www.epochtimes.se/demokratiskold-vacker-oro-kring-yttrandefrihet ...

  https://www.marketwatch.com/ https://www.di.se/bors/ 11.00 Fund managers hold record low in cash as sentiment hits four-year high All-time low cash levels of just 3.3%, down from 3.7% in November. Such bullish positioning, notes the report’s author Michael Hartnett, represents the biggest headwind for risk assets.  Investors are all-in already. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fund-managers-hold-record-low-in-cash-as-sentiment-hits-four-year-high-a42e5538 But...  If the stock market drops on a given day, retail investors impulsively buy the next day.  Their favourites are clear: on the Robinhood platform, the five most heavily owned stocks are all in the Magnificent Seven.  And with $7.5tn still sitting in money market mutual funds, small US investors may have buying power left. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/wall-street-15-december.html