Leta i den här bloggen

2022-08-31

Börsen 31 augusti 2022

 






A New Recession Canary in the Coal Mine, Morgan Stanley Says

Morgan Stanley strategist Srikanth Sankaran in a new note. 



He points out that while junk-rated bonds have traditionally been the credit market’s first to crack as economic conditions deteriorate, that position may now be filled by the more than $1 trillion worth of floating-rate loans.

These leveraged loans were supposed to be big winners for investors as interest rates rise, since they reset to keep up with benchmark rates set by the Federal Reserve and therefore offer the possibility of higher returns. 

Some analysts have warned that companies which have borrowed using leveraged loans will face higher bills that could threaten their ability to repay.

Bloomberg 30 August 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-30/there-s-a-new-recession-canary-in-the-coalmine-morgan-stanley-says


Fotnot

Canary in the coal mine

An allusion to caged canaries (birds) that miners would carry down into the mine tunnels with them. If dangerous gases such as carbon monoxide collected in the mine, the gases would kill the canary before killing the miners, thus providing a warning to exit the tunnels immediately.


Corporate junk bonds in the US...

...are paying investors a paltry premium for the risk of holding them into a looming recession. Either spreads need to widen or the recession clouds need to vanish, but something’s got to give.

Part of it probably boils down to some version of the “there is no alternative” sentiment — TINA, as it’s known — that used to pervade equity markets. The downside risks are plentiful for the stock market, and commodities markets may have topped out after the early 2022 rally, so perhaps corporate bond risk doesn’t look so bad by comparison.

Jonathan Levin Bloomberg 30 augusti 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-30/junk-bond-traders-ought-to-check-in-with-economists



ETFs are the canary in the bond coal mine 

On March 23, the Federal Reserve took dramatic action to halt the freeze in corporate credit, announcing big purchases of company bonds.

Gillian Tett FT 29 July 2020





A shift into a 1970s-style era of high and unstable inflation would be a calamity

Policymakers have not confronted anything like this for four decades.

If the planned tightening of monetary policy is likely to generate a recession in the US, what might happen in Europe? 

A central point is that these were intellectual mistakes. So, in my view, has been the lack of attention paid to monetary data.

---

As inflation rises, the monetarist dog is having its day.

https://www.ft.com/content/0cd1d666-8842-4c82-8344-07c4e433a408 

---

Martin Wolf FT 30 August 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/b2ca227e-9fd2-4f47-8a35-18b176a864f0


German inflation hits 40-year high of 8.8 per cent

FT 30 August 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/7ac09a84-0322-45c8-9167-3c24ddb06525

 

2022-08-30

Börsen 30 augusti 2022

 






Next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc

 The new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states. 

The actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary.

The latest UK Immigration Statistics in the year to June show that a record 1.1 million people were issued visas to live in this country, a 70pc rise on pre-Brexit levels. Educated Indians lead the way. The Rwanda camp for illegal migrants, if it ever happens, is an odd distraction within the greater picture. 

The post-Brexit system stops one particular category: uncontrolled flows of cheap labour from the EU. But it is welcoming for another category: skilled migrants from any part of the world, so long as they meet wage and education thresholds.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 29 August 2022

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/


Kwasi Kwarteng expected to be Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer.

He is the product of two of the great factories of Tory operatives — Eton and Cambridge — but is also the son of Ghanaian immigrants who called him by a traditional Ashanti first name  

Bloomberg 1 September 2022




En klar riksdagsmajoritet vill förbättra ISK-sparande, konstaterar sparekonomen Frida Bratt

V har höjt den föreslagna insättningsgränsen från 1 till 2 miljoner kronor, vilket Bratt tolkar som att även V har insett att sparformen är populär även bland vanligare sparare.

Dagens PS 30 augusti 2022

https://www.dagensps.se/privatekonomi/frida-bratt-bara-v-och-mp-vill-begransa-isk/


Landeborn Landeborn & Bratt

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/landeborn-landeborn-bratt.html


Utrikesminister Ann Linde uttalade sig om det svenska exportkontrollregelverket för krigsmateriel

i SVT programmet Agenda den 13 februari 2022.

Därmed finns det inga ovillkorliga hinder att exportera krigsmateriel till en stat som befinner sig i väpnad konflikt. I propositionen uttrycks också vikten av att göra en helhetsbedömning där alla faktorer vägs in och där Sveriges utrikes- och försvarspolitik spelar en viktig roll.

Det finns dessutom exempel på att utförseltillstånd har beviljats där villkorligt hinder förelåg. 2003 beviljades utförseltillstånd i samband med USA:s och Storbritanniens deltagande i den väpnade konflikten i Irak. Då gjordes en helhetsbedömning och nationens eget intresse hade förtur.

https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-lagar/dokument/ku-anmalan/granskning-av-utrikesministern-med-anledning-av_H9A1dnr1394


Statsminister Andersson beskrev stödet som tvådelat:

– Den första delen är ett nytt militärt stöd, på 500 miljoner kronor. Innehållet i det nya stödpaketet motsvarar era förfrågningar och ska komplettera donationer från andra nationer. Ett beslut i frågan kommer fattas inom en mycket nära framtid.

Den andra delen av Sveriges stöd avser att stödja Ukrainas ekonomi, motståndskraft och återhämtning, med ytterligare 500 miljoner SEK. Statsminister Andersson beskrev stödet i flera punkter:

https://www.regeringen.se/artiklar/2022/08/1-miljard-i-okat-stod-till-ukraina/

Vid den så kallade Boforsaffären i mitten av 1980-talet, då vapentillverkaren Bofors misstänktes för omfattande smuggling av krigsmateriel till "otillåtna" länder runt Persiska viken, utsågs Algernon till utredare. Han var som sådan omstridd.[5] Bland annat riktade Svenska freds- och skiljedomsföreningen skarp kritik mot honom och krävde hans avgång.[5] Han anklagades bland annat för att alltför lättvindigt ha godkänt Bofors önskemål om vapenexport till främst Singapore.[5] Stora delar av denna exporterade krigsmateriel misstänktes ha hamnat i de otillåtna länderna Förenade Arabemiraten (närmare bestämt emiratet Dubai) och Bahrain.[5] Algernon sägs ha stått på god fot med Bofors verkställande direktör Martin Ardbo.[6]

Algernon omkom när han föll framför ett tåg vid T-Centralen i Stockholms tunnelbana den 15 januari 1987.[5] Tidigare samma dag hade Algernon haft ett möte med Nobel Industriers koncernchef Anders G. Carlberg. Under samtalet hade Carlberg berättat för Algernon om att en intern undersökning visat att det förekommit smuggling. 

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl-Fredrik_Algernon


Boforsaffären avslöjades på 1980-talet, och avsåg dels smuggling av luftvärnsroboten Robot 70 till Dubai och Bahrain, trots att fred inte rådde i länderna, dels påståenden att Bofors skulle ha använts sig av 260 miljoner mutor till indiska befattningshavare att få sälja artilleripjäsen Haubits 77 till Indien.

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svensk_vapenexport#Tillståndsgivning


Bofors – en gång i Alfred Nobels ägo, sedan 2005 ägt av den likaledes skandalomsusade brittiska vapenjätten BAE Systems. Redan 1984 hade Svenska Freds- och Skiljedomsföreningen (SFS) polisanmält företaget för illegal vapenexport till Dubai och Bahrain via singaporesiska mellanhänder. Omvägen syftade till att runda kravet på slutanvändaravtal som garanterade att vapnen inte hamnade i krigförande eller av andra skäl svartlistade länder.

https://michaeltapper.se/hem/artiklar/senkommen-men-valkommen-thriller-om-boforsaffaren/


I juni 1985, sedan misstankarna mot Bofors stärkts, avgick Winberg från förtroendeuppdraget som ordförande i Svenska arbetsgivareföreningen (SAF).[2] Sommaren 1988 åtalades Winberg för smuggelaffärerna tillsammans med tre andra före detta Boforschefer.[2] Winberg hade under polisutredningen bestämt tillbakavisat att han medverkat till att vapnen nått de otillåtna länderna Dubai och Bahrain.[2]

 Rättegången, där Winberg på grund av sin plötsliga och oväntade död (se nedan) ej kom att medverka, inleddes den 4 september 1989. De övriga före detta Boforscheferna Martin Ardbo, Lennart Pålsson och Hans Ekblom, dömdes i december samma år till villkorlig dom för varusmuggling av Stockholms tingsrätt. Nobel Industrier ådömdes att betala 11 miljoner kronor i böter.

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claes-Ulrik_Winberg


Sveriges ambassad i Singapore

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sveriges_ambassad_i_Singapore

 

2022-08-29

Börsen 29 augusti 2022

 






Rooting out high inflation will become much harder

Speaking at the annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, many said that the global economy was entering a new and tougher era.


“At least over the next five years, monetary policymaking is going to be much more challenging than it was in the two decades before the pandemic struck,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s deputy managing director, told the Financial Times.

Cutting through the buoyant atmosphere among Jackson Hole attendees was the overarching concern that the world and the economic relationships that underpin it had fundamentally changed.

Complicating matters are doubts about just how much policy tightening is needed in the face of unpredictable gyrations in supply and, in turn, prices.

The next few years are at risk of being known as the “Great Volatility” — in contrast with the past two decades, which economists called the “Great Moderation”

The 2 per cent inflation target  came up repeatedly throughout the conference, with economists suggesting that it may need to be adapted to fit a more fractured global economy.

Fed in 2020 announced it would target inflation at a 2 per cent average over time, in order to make up for past periods of undershooting the target.

Many economists advocated for a 3 per cent inflation target. 

FT 28 August 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/b71e259f-f2f0-4e25-bd22-0dbd0f344643


From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/from-great-moderation-to-great.html


Should the somewhat arbitrary goal of 2% be changed? 

The question may seem a little churlish when central banks are so flagrantly missing their existing target

The relative damage done by extremely high or accelerating price growth may be easily visible, but economists have struggled to identify differences in the costs to an economy from different stable, low-single-digit inflation rates. 

Higher inflation targets are a different solution to the problem of the lower bound. If the public expects the central bank to generate more inflation in future then the interest rate, in real terms, can still be sharply negative, stimulating the economy even without nominal interest rates needing to venture below zero. 

Allowing moderately higher inflation in normal times could therefore make it easier for the central bank to give a boost to the economy when trouble hits.

The Economist 21 July 2022

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/07/21/should-central-banks-inflation-targets-be-raised


Det har väckt viss uppmärksamhet att han - IMFs chefsekonom, Olivier Blanchard -  har föreslagit att inflationsmålet bör höjas, från runt två till kanske runt fyra procent.

Han har fått stöd av Krugman medan The Economist vacklar.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2010/02/riktiga-karlar-ar-inte-radda-for-lite.html


 



2022-08-28

Landeborn Landeborn & Bratt

 En fortsatt nedgång är att vänta, enligt Danske Banks seniorekonom Maria Landeborn.

– Uppenbarligen räds inte Fed en recession om det är vad som krävs, säger hon.

SvD/TT 28 augusti 2022

https://www.svd.se/a/g6XjR9/rakna-med-fortsatt-borsras-efter-fed-beskedet

 

Vårt huvudscenario är fortfarande att detta är en tillfällig marknadsoro”, säger Maria Landeborn, seniorstrateg på Danske Bank.

DI 14 februari 2022

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/02/sparprofilerna-manar-till-lugn-i.html


I de här turbulenta tiderna är Maria Landeborns råd till småspararna tydligt: sitt still i båten

SvD 24 januari 2022

– Det är lätt att känna att man vill trycka på säljknappen, men risken är då att man inte riktigt kommer in igen, säger Nordnets sparekonom Frida Bratt.

SvT 24 januari 2022

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/01/i-de-har-turbulenta-tiderna-ar-maria.html


NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/09/nobody-knows-anything.html







2022-08-27

Chair of US central bank uses Jackson Hole address to warn of ‘sustained period’ of lower growth

Fed watchers noted that “Keeping At It” — a phrase Powell used twice in his speech — is the title of Volcker’s 2018 memoir, which was published just over a year before he died.

FT 26 August 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/f2a6d9ac-24de-4e10-8fd6-924e8a45b047


The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm


Last week, I received a poignant invitation: Paul Volcker, the legendary former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, asked me to visit his apartment to discuss his legacy.

Mr Volcker is publishing his memoir. The release of Keeping At It was initially scheduled for late November but the publisher has rushed the date forward to October because the former Fed chair is ill. 

Gillian Tett FT 25 October 2018

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2018/10/last-week-i-received-poignant.html


Michael Burry of ‘Big Short’ Fame Says ‘Silliness’ in Markets Is Back

Bloomberg 4 August 2022

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/michael-burry-of-big-short-fame-says.html


Gång på gång har investeraren Michael Burry fått rätt om aktiemarknaden. 

Nu har han gjort en radikal förändring i sina innehav och varnar för ett omfattande börsras. Har han sett något som vi andra missat?

Alexander Hultman SvD 2022-08-26

https://www.svd.se/a/8Q30X1/the-big-short-stjarnan-michael-burry-har-salt-sina-aktier




2022-08-26

Börsen 26 augusti 2022

 



Fed’s Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain to households and businesses in Jackson Hole speech

Fed will keep at task of lowering inflation ‘until the job is done,’ chairman says






PCE inflation index drops 0.1% in July, core up 0.1%

The rate of inflation over the past year dropped to 6.3% from 6.8%

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-falls-in-july-for-first-time-in-two-plus-years-key-gauge-shows-due-to-falling-gas-prices-11661517617


Why are official interest rates so low if inflation is dangerously high?

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/why-are-official-interest-rates-so-low.html


Nice chart

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-eased-in-july-according-to-the-feds-preferred-measure-11661519584




Economists shouldn’t underestimate the power of a good story - narrative matters

 Investors should take note of some intriguing research floating around the edge of the Jackson Hole meeting about the importance of storytelling in monetary policy.

 After the 2008 financial crisis, Robert Shiller, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, urged his colleagues to study how “narratives” shape sentiment and thus economic trends. And one encouraging post-crisis development in economics is that a swelling number of young behavioural finance economists have heeded Shiller’s call.

 So if I were his speechwriter, I would  argue that inflation will fall when rates go up, and promise to keep raising those rates until price growth is at a sensible level. 

That will not be politically popular ahead of a crucial midterm election. But it is at least a crystal clear message — or it would be if the Fed actually does it.

Gillian Tett FT 25 August 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/756f605a-7ae3-469a-8a68-78ee41ea8b4f


Gillian Tett is chair of the editorial board and editor-at-large. Tett’s past roles at the FT have included US managing editor, assistant editor, capital markets editor, deputy editor of the Lex column, Tokyo bureau chief, and a reporter in Russia and Brussels.

https://www.ft.com/gillian-tett

Hon är också en av mina Gurus.


Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. Shiller

https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691182292/narrative-economics


“We have highly priced markets in the stock market, the bond market and the housing market,” Shiller

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/07/we-have-highly-priced-markets-in-stock.html




Why are official interest rates so low if inflation is dangerously high?

 There are two extremely obvious things going on that have confused people about Fed policy. They are: 

1. How is inflation going to fall as rapidly as the Fed assumes, even before it has raised interest rates only to around the neutral level?

2. How has the Fed picked the level to which it thinks inflation will fall on its own before monetary policy has to do the rest of the work?

In these projections, the Fed focuses on the PCE deflator, not the CPI, a gauge for which inflation has gone even crazier than in this PCE.

The Fed sees headline PCE at 4.4% at end 2022, 2.65% at end 2023 and at 2.25% at end 2024. 

On what planet would any sane, experienced securities market investor think that the Fed would stop hiking rates at 2.5% with inflation so high? I cannot answer that. 

Robert Brusca MarketWatch Aug. 25, 2022

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-federal-reserves-powell-has-a-lot-of-explaining-to-do-11661445167


Styrränta och inflation

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/styrranta-och-inflation.html


Does the Fed need to kill the rally in stocks to achieve its policy goals?

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/does-fed-need-to-kill-rally-in-stocks.html



Waterways have dried to a trickle thanks to droughts and heat waves

that owe their origins to climate change.

 Losing waterways means a serious risk to shipping routes, agriculture, energy supplies — even drinking water.

Rivers that have been critical to commerce for centuries are now shriveled, threatening the global movement of chemicals, fuel, food and other commodities.

Bloomberg 26 augusti 2022 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-26/why-are-rivers-drying-up-climate-change-turns-waterways-into-dust


Europe’s Drought May Be Continent’s Worst in at Least 500 Years

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-23/europe-s-drought-may-be-continent-s-worst-in-at-least-500-years


The world's rivers are drying up from extreme weather. See how six look from space

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/the-worlds-rivers-are-drying-up-from.html


 

2022-08-25

Börsen 25 augusti 2022

 





226 miljarder kronor i bostadsrättsvärde gått upp i rök –

 det största tappet sedan mätningarna började 1996.

Det motsvarar 6,7 procent av totalen på 3.281 miljarder kronor.

Henrik Ek DI 25 augusti 2022

https://www.di.se/live/vardet-pa-bostadsratter-rasar-dramatiskt/


SCB 2021-07-01

Does the Fed need to kill the rally in stocks to achieve its policy goals?

The short answer is ‘yes’

MarketWatch Aug. 25, 2022 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/does-the-fed-need-to-kill-the-rally-in-stocks-to-achieve-its-policy-goals-the-short-answer-is-yes-11661435522


Jackson Hole Should Be a Mea Culpa for Central Bankers

Policy makers need to acknowledge their past mistakes, as well as detail the trade-off between growth and inflation.

At the European Central Bank’s forum in Sintra, Portugal in June, Powell admitted that "we now understand better how little we understand about inflation.” 

More candor is needed now on how the inflationary monster was so underestimated, and how far policy makers are willing to go in sacrificing growth — and jobs — to tame it.

The global central bank reaction to the pandemic prevented a major recession, but the stimulus was left in place for far too long.

Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg 25 augusti 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-25/jackson-hole-should-be-a-mea-culpa-for-central-bankers


Fed Policy Framework built for last war still yields lessons for the next

Unveiled at the Fed’s Jackson Hole forum in August of 2020, after an 18-month review, the new approach was aimed at a specific peril: How to beat the weak inflation that had long dogged central bankers.

Bloomberg 25 augusti 2022





Inflation-linked index falls most this year

At a time of roaring inflation, bonds that hedge price pressures sound like a winner. In reality, they’ve been a disaster.  

The Global Inflation-Linked Bond Index has plunged 17% in 2022 -- the worst-performing of the 20 key fixed-income benchmarks offered by Bloomberg. 

These inflation funds have a high sensitivity to changes in interest rates as they are stuffed with linkers that have long maturities. You may not be happy if you expected to be protected from inflation given the rise in rates will have obliterated that.

-- Tanvir Sandhu, chief global derivatives strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence

Bloomberg 23 augusti 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/inflation-is-a-terrible-bet-in-the-case-of-linkers-plunging-17


Varning för realräntefonder

Värst är realräntefonderna, som ger förlust långsiktigt oavsett hur hög inflationen blir.

Den senaste auktionen hos Riksgälden gav en snittränta på -2,02 procent per år för realränteobligationer med sju års löptid. Det ger en helt säker förlust på 13 procent under löptiden, realt sett. 

Skyddet mot inflationen gör enbart att den reala förlusten inte ökar om inflationen stiger.

Jonas Lindmark Morningstar 2019-08-15

https://www.morningstar.se/se/news/197820/varning-f%C3%B6r-realr%C3%A4ntefonder.aspx



2022-08-24

Tomas Fischer och Erik Penser stämde träff med friherren Carl Langenskiöld, vd för börsens minsta mäklarfirma

 I början av 1969, då de ännu inte 30 år gamla 

Fischer var diplomat och aktieplacerare vid sidan av, Penser hans mäklare på en annan firma. De föreslog att de båda skulle anställas på lilla Langenskiölds, utan lön men med fet provision på affärerna.

– Ni kommer i grevens tid, sa friherren, för jag hade precis tänkt lägga ned firman.

https://www.svd.se/a/L5v9w1/penser-fischer-och-langenskiold-vackte-borsen-efter-kreugerkraschen



2022-08-23

Fed wishes to crush stock markets

The Fed is determined to break Wall Street’s torrid and unwelcome rally, a bear-trap variant if ever there was one.

Fed is openly irritated that markets have jumped the gun. It thinks investors have misunderstood the unscripted comments by Mr Powell as evidence of an early “pivot” in the interest rate cycle and a licence for fresh excess in tech stocks and frothy asset markets across the world.

 It wishes to push up junk yield spreads and restore some Schumpeterian discipline to corporate finance. It wishes to tighten financial conditions as a mechanism for choking inflation. 

 It intends to accelerate the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) in September with $95bn of monthly bond sales. It intends to drain liquidity from the world’s dollarised financial system, and the rest of us can drop dead. Fight this Fed if you dare.

The effect will be overwhelmed once QT begins in earnest next month. That is when the real trouble begins. 

Over the last three months M1 money has contracted in absolute terms, and has been falling at a double-digit annual pace in real terms. 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 24 August 2022


Börsen 24 augusti 2022


 

2022-08-21

The world's rivers are drying up from extreme weather. See how six look from space

Colorado River, The Yangtze River, Rhine, Po, Loire, Danube, 

CNN August 20, 2022

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/20/world/rivers-lakes-drying-up-drought-climate-cmd-intl/index.html


Extreme heat is slamming the world's three biggest economies all at once

CNN Business August 18, 2022

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/18/business/heatwave-global-economy/index.html


From the Rhine to the Tigris

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/the-rain-in-spain.html


40 Million People Rely on the Colorado River. It’s Drying Up Fast

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/08/40-million-people-rely-on-colorado.html


Grundvattnet i Kalifornien


Why We Need to Build a More Robust Power Grid

It’s not enough to just build renewable power. But just increasing the amount of clean power generation isn’t enough. We also need to be able to transmit the power. 

And for various reasons, the existing power grid we have in the US isn’t up for that task. We speak with Rob Gramlich, founder and president of Grid Strategies, about what a modern supergrid would look like and how we can get there.

Bloomberg 18 August 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/transcript-why-we-need-to-build-a-more-robust-power-grid


Texas Grid Is Under Threat as Record Temperatures 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/07/global-air-conditioning-demand-will.html

 

 

2022-08-19

Hans Wallmark om moderaterna och euron, som svar på min fråga

Hans Wallmark svarar:

M har hela tiden sagt att det tidigare resultatet från folkomröstningen gäller. Och att det inte är aktuellt med någon omprövning förrän det finns en tydlig viljeinriktning från svenska folkets sida. Nu är det väl någonstans runt 10 procent som vill se euron införde i Sverige.


Rolf till Hans Wallmark

Tack för svar. "en tydlig viljeinriktning från svenska folkets sida" Men du har därmed inte sagt att denna det svenska folkets vilja skall komma till uttryck genom en folkomröstning. Det bli bara halvt rätt. Duger inte. 

19 augusti 2022 


Min fråga var den här.

Moderaterna tiger om EMU och Euron

Detta hittar jag när jag söker hos moderaterna om euron och EMU. Den långa texten om EUs förtjänster innehåller inte ett ord om det.

Euron och EMU ger 0 träffar när jag söker.

Ping Hans Wallmark kan Du lova att Sverige inte går med i euron utan föregående folkomröstning?

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/moderaterna-tiger-om-emu-och-euron.html


 


Börsen 19 augusti 2022

 


Fastighetssektorn hade en tung dag


Albert Edwards declares the Ice Age is over

Edwards noted approvingly the recent commentary from Bob Prince, the co-chief investment officer at hedge fund giant Bridgewater, who expects a multi-year secular tightening cycle. Edwards calls the new phase a “great melt.”

“In essence Bob Prince is saying that we are currently in only the first phase of a multi-year secular tightening cycle to address the after-effects from combining monetary and fiscal policy in a reckless fashion.  

 Bob notes that investors have mistakenly discounted only one quick tightening cycle and so they are going to be mightily surprised,” says Edwards.

MarketWatch 18 August 2022

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/socgen-strategist-albert-edwards-declares-the-ice-age-is-over-bring-on-the-great-melt-11660820048


What does this mean? “Carnage awaits,” Edwards wrote

There is no “carnage” yet, as investors appear to be in the buying mood.

MarketWatch 28 October 2019

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/10/noted-bear-albert-edwars-earns-our.html


Kursras på obligationsmarknaden, fastighetsbolag kan stå inför en kreditkris

 – Bolagen har haft en kraftig tillväxt samtidigt som de skjutit över mycket av sin finansiering på kapitalmarknaden. Det kan bli en utmaning när de nu vill återgå till bankfinansiering, säger han.

Det riktiga svaret på hur det går, kommer först när svenska fastighetsbolag visar hur de lyckas refinansiera sina billiga eurolån. Först ut är just Balder, som har ett eurolån på motsvarande 3,5 miljarder kronor som löper ut i mars 2023.

Joel Dahlberg SvD 19 augusti 2022

https://www.svd.se/a/dnokqq/fastighetsbolag-riskerar-hamna-i-kreditkris


En mer oroande utveckling är den på obligationsmarknaden, säger Kerstin Hessius, vd på Tredje AP-fonden

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/07/en-mer-oroande-utveckling-ar-den-pa.html


2022-08-18

The Federal Reserve says it is going to keep raising interest rates.

 Wall Street thinks it’s bluffing.

This could spell trouble for both of them. 

WSJ 18 August 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-high-stakes-inflation-game-wall-street-bets-the-fed-is-bluffing-11660830685


Jerome Powell really means what he says

When they said that “there was little evidence to date that inflation pressures were subsiding,” they meant it. 

When they said that inflation “would likely stay uncomfortably high for some time,” they meant it.




Fed’s Bullard says he is leaning toward backing 0.75 percentage point hike in September

MarktWatch 18 August 2022

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-not-getting-cold-feet-about-wrestling-inflation-to-the-ground-so-stop-misreading-its-minutes-11660851861


Fed’s Bullard Favoring 0.75-Percentage-Point, says he isn’t ready to say inflation surge has peaked 

WSJ 18 August 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-bullard-leans-toward-favoring-0-75-percentage-point-september-rate-rise-11660842768



The bullish interpretation is to assume that a soft landing is under way. 

In this world inflation will drift down without derailing economic growth, and the Federal Reserve may not even need to raise interest rates quite so quickly.

The Economist 18 August 2022

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/08/18/a-fresh-american-bull-market-is-under-way-can-it-last





Börsen 18 augusti 2022

 





The Federal Reserve says it is going to keep raising interest rates.

 Wall Street thinks it’s bluffing.



2022-08-17

Moderaterna tiger om EMU och Euron

 Detta hittar jag när jag söker hos moderaterna om euron och EMU. Den långa texten om EUs förtjänster innehåller inte ett ord om det.

Euron och EMU ger 0 träffar när jag söker.

Ping Hans Wallmark kan Du lova att Sverige inte går med i euron utan föregående folkomröstning?

Så länge vi har vår egen valuta kan vi liksom UK, om vi vill, lämna tåget sm går mott en federal stat.

Om detta borde det talas om inför ett val. 

https://moderaterna.se/var-politik/eu/

Rolf Englund på Facebook 17 augusti 2022


Grundlagsändring pågår. Det har väl framgått av valdebatten? Ett steg på vägen mot euron och en federal superstat.

Det har väl inte fått den uppmärksamhet det anstår en grundlagsförändring.

En av de som tiger är Hans Wallmark.

---

Riksdagen beslutade den 2 juni 2022 dels att anta ändringarna i grundlagen som vilande, dels att behandla förslaget om ny riksbankslag och övriga lagändringar efter valet i september.

För att ändra en grundlag krävs att riksdagen fattar två beslut med likadant innehåll och att det hålls val till riksdagen mellan de två besluten. Det första beslutet innebär att grundlagsförslaget antas som vilande. Genom det andra beslutet antas grundlagsförslaget slutligt. Vid samma tillfälle planerar riksdagen att besluta om den nya riksbankslagen och de andra lagarna.

Hela det nya legala ramverket för Riksbanken ska enligt regeringens förslag börja gälla den 1 januari 2023.

https://www.riksbank.se/sv/om-riksbanken/styrdokument/riksbankslagen/forslag-till-ny-riksbankslag/



 

Fed officials agreed to eventually dial back the pace of interest-rate hikes

 but also wanted to gauge how their monetary tightening was working toward curbing US inflation.

“As the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 26-27 meeting released Wednesday in Washington. 

“Many participants remarked that, in view of the constantly changing nature of the economic environment and the existence of long and variable lags in monetary policy’s effect on the economy, there was also a risk that the committee could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability,” the minutes showed. 

Following the release, two-year Treasury yields and the dollar pared gains, while US stocks trimmed losses.

Bloomberg 17 augusti 2022 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-17/fed-saw-smaller-hikes-ahead-to-assess-prior-moves-minutes-show


Fed officials see a significant risk that ‘elevated inflation ...

...could become entrenched if the public began to question’ the central bank’s resolve to raise rates high enough to curb inflation, according to the minutes of the Fed’s July 26-27 meeting.

WSJ 17 August 2022



Some officials indicated that once rates had been raised to the point where they were cooling down the economy “sufficiently”, it would probably “be appropriate to maintain that level to ensure that inflation was firmly on a path back” to the Fed’s target of 2 per cent.

FT 17 August 2022




Börsen 17 augusti 2022

 











The Rain in Spain. From the Rhine to the Tigris

 How Spain is coping with the heat

https://www.dw.com/en/spain-coping-with-the-heat/a-62826918


På sina resor han förnam,

hur väl försynens nåd reglerat, 

som floder överallt placerat

där stora städer stryka fram.

- Falstaff, fakir skrifter av Axel Wallengren.


From the Rhine to the Tigris

Global warming disturbs the jet and gulf streams that used to reliably circulate our atmosphere and oceans.

Lake Mead — where the Hoover Dam blocks whatever remains of the Colorado River — is drying into a puddle and displaying everything from sunken boats to dead bodies.

As these rivers, from the Yangtze to the Colorado, slowly evaporate — their water molecules destined to inundate islets or coastlines elsewhere in the world — the emphasis among scientists and policymakers is shifting to “adaptation.” 

We’ll certainly need a lot of that. 

Andreas Kluth Bloomberg 17 augusti 2022



Historiskt låga vattennivåer hotar tysk industri

SvD/TT 18 augusti 2022



Parts of China are suffering their worst heat wave in six decades

WSJ 17 August 2022




The waterborne infrastructure of global trade could dry out or shut down as the world heats up

FT 17 August 2022




2022-08-16

Börsen 16 augusti 2022

 






Rörliga boräntor på knappt 4 procent våren 2023

Vår prognos för Riksbanken är att styrräntan uppgår till 2,25 procent under våren 2023 och att de därefter pausar ytterligare höjningar.

 Det betyder rörliga boräntor på knappt 4 procent. 

Handelsbanken 16 augusti 2022

https://newsletter.handelsbanken.se/article/434B5C477243475D40734043504B71/31314897/7152558


https://www.dagensps.se/privatekonomi/bostad/sa-hoga-borantor-bor-svenskarna-rakna-med/


Styrränta och inflation



Eight Crises for the Fed

 The Panic of 1907 

The Great Depression

The Treasury-Fed Accord

The Volcker Shock

The 1987 Stock Market Plunge

Sept. 11

The Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession

The Covid-19 Pandemic

Tom Orlik and David Wilcox Bloomberg 16 augusti 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-15/how-the-federal-reserve-responded-to-8-economic-crises


Ja, det är ju märkligt att människor inte tänker på vad som hände 1907

Sommaren 1991 hälsade jag på min gamle gode vän Sven Rydenfelt. Vi talade om fastighetskrisen som då startat på allvar, och den tanklösa överbelåningen.

Ja, det är ju märkligt att människor inte tänker på vad som hände 1907, sa Rydenfelt.

Nils-Eric Sandberg, DN 1996-10-18

https://www.internetional.se/nesrydenfelt.htm


Roubini Sees Either US Hard Landing or Uncontrolled Inflation

 Key to inflation is what pace of its decline will be

“The fed funds rate should be going well above 4% -- 4.5%-5% in my view -- to really push inflation towards 2%,”

The central bank’s latest dot plot of interest-rate projections published after the June policy meeting suggests that the federal funds rate will reach around 3.375% by the end of this year and almost 3.8% by the end of 2023. That’s not hawkish enough, said Roubini.

“Even if you have 3.8%, we have inflation still well above target around 8%, falling only gradually,” he said. 

Isabelle Lee and David Westin Bloomberg 15 augusti 2022 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-15/roubini-sees-either-us-hard-landing-or-uncontrolled-inflation


From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation

Nouriel Roubini Project Syndicate 9 August 2022

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/from-great-moderation-to-great.html


2022-08-13

Tillbaka till 2 procent? Really?

 



Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, 
who prior to the pandemic was the central bank’s most dovish policy maker, said Wednesday that he wants the Fed’s benchmark interest rate at 3.9% by the end of this year and at 4.4% by the end of 2023
.
His Chicago counterpart, Charles Evans, 
welcomed the news at a separate event Wednesday, but added that inflation remains “unacceptably high.” He said he expects “that we will be increasing rates the rest of this year and into next year to make sure inflation gets back to our 2% objective.”

Bloomberg 10 augusti 2022 




The extent of the rally looks overdone, because of the critical issue of how long it will take to bring inflation down. 

It’s nice that the peak is (probably) in; but the Fed wants us to believe that it won’t desist from high interest rates until its target of 2% core inflation is in sight. That won’t be easy.

John Authers Bloomberg 15 augusti 2022


To be sure, this could be the start of something big. 

 Maybe inflation really is going to trend lower from here. Maybe it was transitory after all, if you can torture the definition of transitory hard enough. 

But if you think the Fed is going to take its foot off the gas with headline inflation running at 8.5 per cent, against its target of 2 per cent...

Katie Martin FT 12 August 2022



Lars Calmfors: nu ett bra tillfälle att se över det snart 30 år gamla inflationsmålet

 

Underlying inflation remains high, at least by the standards of the past 30 or so years. 

There are many competing estimates of that underlying rate, but by and large they tend to be in the range of 4 percent to 5 percent, compared with a Federal Reserve target of 2 percent inflation.

So how hard will it be to achieve that target?

Getting 1980’s inflation down was a painful process. 



U.S. economy is currently overheated in a way it wasn’t in 1980. 

Paul Krugman NYT 12 August 2022




Will the FOMC say “mission accomplished” at 6.5% inflation? 

What happens if we get a recession in 2023 like the yield curve is predicting? 

John Mauldin August 12, 2022