Why are official interest rates so low if inflation is dangerously high?
There are two extremely obvious things going on that have confused people about Fed policy. They are:
1. How is inflation going to fall as rapidly as the Fed assumes, even before it has raised interest rates only to around the neutral level?
2. How has the Fed picked the level to which it thinks inflation will fall on its own before monetary policy has to do the rest of the work?
In these projections, the Fed focuses on the PCE deflator, not the CPI, a gauge for which inflation has gone even crazier than in this PCE.
The Fed sees headline PCE at 4.4% at end 2022, 2.65% at end 2023 and at 2.25% at end 2024.
On what planet would any sane, experienced securities market investor think that the Fed would stop hiking rates at 2.5% with inflation so high? I cannot answer that.
Robert Brusca MarketWatch Aug. 25, 2022
Styrränta och inflation
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/styrranta-och-inflation.html
Does the Fed need to kill the rally in stocks to achieve its policy goals?
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/does-fed-need-to-kill-rally-in-stocks.html
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