Soft landings are as rare as sightings of Halley’s comet, but...
But it’s starting to look like the central bank may just pull off the impossible.
The S&P 500 has risen more than 13% from the low this year on June 16, yields on US Treasuries have eased back from their highs, the new issue corporate bond market is booming
What all this means is that financial conditions are materially easier than they were just a few weeks ago, much to the chagrin /disappointment/ of the macro doom crowd.
Jared Dillian Bloomberg 4 augusti 2022
All The Evil of This World by Jared Dillian (Goodreads Author)
There are humans behind the big, bad vilified banks, there are humans behind the calculations of Wall Street, there are humans behind all the legal and illegal financial machinations in the news--they are not always the best humans, and they are not always the worst humans, but All The Evil Of This World tells their stories with abundant curiosity, empathy, and honesty
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/29552184-all-the-evil-of-this-world
Behavior in both stock and bond markets is therefore fighting the Fed
The Fed can raise the rates that it directly controls; but it also needs broader financial conditions to tighten. If the bond market does not oblige, then the chances rise that the Fed has to push harder, risking a financial accident in the process.
John Authers Bloomberg 4 augusti 2022
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/are-animal-spirits-running-into-dumb.html
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