Englund

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/us-military-launches-strikes-on-iran-for-second-straight-day I Europa väntas en rekyl uppåt  USA genomförde med start sent under onsdagskvällen en ny, sex timmar lång attackvåg mot cirka 90 militära mål i Iran med explosioner i flera städer.  Som svar har Iran avfyrat drönare och robotar mot amerikanska militära mål i Kuwait och Bahrain, och flyglarm har aktiverats i Qatar. Den uppblossade konflikten i Mellanöstern med USA och Iran går in på sin andra dag. Samtidigt tycks börserna i Asien närmast obekymrade – och i Europa väntas en rekyl uppåt efter onsdagens nedgångar. DI 9 juli 2026, 07:21 https://www.di.se/live/morgonkoll-rekyl-upp-vantas-pa-europaborserna/ Jag finner detta svårt att förstå, eftersom den stora uppgången den senaste tiden har sin grund i marknadens tro att fred är antågande (FOMO). 31 mars Irans president uppges vara beredd att avsluta kriget. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/vandpunkten...

            China’s solar panel surplus  Clean power is within our reach  Adam Tooze Financial Times 6 June 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/b6cac184-75a4-47ab-94c5-5eb8c92cd407 China is the clean energy superpower, but India moving even faster https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/china-is-clean-energy-superpower-but.html Energy failures are destined to doom Wall Street’s AI euphoria Market manias have patterns. The most powerful ones are genuine technological revolutions pushed far beyond rational limits by crowd psychology. By mid-1999 it was already clear to veteran investors and students of economic history that the dotcom bubble had reached parabolic insanity. The authentic success stories would have to fight each other in a cannibalistic struggle for survival.   We are nearing the same point today with AI, although this time for a different and overwhelming reason. The $20tn valuation of hyperscalers, chipmakers and the larger...

 Jamie Dimon, chef för  JP Morgan varnar för ny inflationsvåg Även om han under sin karriär har suttit mitt i en rad kriser, tvekar han inte om sin bedömning av de samlade riskerna i världen just nu. ”Det är den högsta nivån som jag någonsin har sett”, säger han. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/jamie-dimon-chef-for-jp-morgan-varnar.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-07/why-private-credit-is-facing-its-biggest-test-yet-video Förnyad oro i Mellanöstern sänker Asienbörserna inför eftermiddagens amerikanska jobbsiffra. Även Europaterminerna pekar mot en röd öppning. DI 8 maj 2026, 06:39 https://www.di.se/live/morgonkoll-sma-rorelser-i-asien-trots-skakig-vapenvila/ Deppigt slut på börsveckan https://www.di.se/live/deppigt-slut-pa-borsveckan-silex-rusade-vidare/ Bubblespotting is a lot harder than it seems. It’s easy to misinterpret overpricing for part of the market as an indication that everything is a bubble.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/...

I takt med att vi ansluter fler saker till nätet kommer det att utsättas för exempellös belastning.  Praktiskt taget alla ekonomiska mål som amerikanska politiker kan tänkas sträva efter – att få ekonomin att växa, återuppliva tillverkningssektorn, bekämpa klimatförändringarna eller helt enkelt göra livet mer överkomligt – kommer att kräva stora uppgraderingar av elsystemet.  På senare tid har amerikaner blivit fixerade vid explosionen av datacenter och energibehovet hos artificiell intelligens. Det är faktiskt en liten del av ett mycket större problem.  Vårt nät är för gammalt och vår elförsörjning för liten. New York Times 27 april 2026 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/04/27/opinion/electricity-power-grid-infrastructure.html  As we plug more things into the grid, it will come under unprecedented strain.  Virtually every economic goal that American politicians might strive for — growing the economy, reinvigorating the manufacturing sector, fighting clim...

  China now has the biggest power grid the world has ever seen.  Between 2010 and 2024, its power production increased by more than the rest of the world combined. Last year, China generated more than twice as much electricity as the U.S. Some Chinese data centers are now paying less than half what American ones pay for electricity.  WSJ 10 december 2025 https://www.wsj.com/tech/china-ai-electricity-data-centers-d2a86935? US trade deficit slides to lowest level since 2009 in October The gap between imports and exports of goods fell 39 per cent from the previous month to $29.4bn. That reduced the deficit to its narrowest level in more than 16 years, and much narrower than the $59.8bn predicted by economists polled by Reuters. FT 8 January 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/ee04e567-dbac-440d-8699-29e7a6c6194d Despite this monthly drop, the cumulative trade deficit for the year (January to October) is still 7.7% higher than the same period in the previous year. Economists have...

  — at least the fourth national blackout in a year — as the island is mired in one of its deepest economic crises in decades. A failure at the 300 megawatt CTE Antonio Guiteras power plant had brought the entire grid down. Bloomberg 10 September 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-10/cuba-hit-by-yet-another-nationwide-blackout-as-power-plant-fails

given that it aggressively phases out tax credits for wind turbines and solar panels. An analysis this week by climate policy think tank Energy Innovation Forecast predicts the legislation will put an end to 300 gigawatts of wind and solar development  that would have otherwise come online over the next 15 years.  That’s the equivalent of 300 nuclear reactors. Stephanie Flanders Bloomberg 9 July 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-09/podcast-will-trump-s-bill-bring-on-a-big-beautiful-energy-crunch

... which serves nearly a fifth of Americans from Washington DC to Illinois, is expected to climb to a 12-year high as intense heat spurs air conditioning needs. A heat wave will start baking the mid-Atlantic on Saturday with temperatures climbing to 38C in Washington on Monday, 13 degrees above average https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/intense-heat-to-push-biggest-us-grid-s-power-use-to-12-year-high US heat risk forecast: See where Americans are at the most risk for extreme heat this year To help prepare Americans for the dangerous temperatures, the National Weather Service and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a national forecast predicting heat-related risks. Updated Fri June 20, 2025 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/26/weather/extreme-heat-risk-tracker-dg I världen väntas dagens ungefär två miljarder luftkonditioneringar att öka till närmare sex miljarder https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/01/i-varlden-vantas-dagens-ungefar-tva.html

Training a single large-scale A.I. model now requires as much electricity as a large, urban American neighborhood uses in a year.  Data centers, which power everything from those language models to advanced simulations, are projected to consume about 10 percent of the U.S. electricity supply by 2030 — up from around 2 percent today.  A new report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation finds that these facilities are an emerging threat to grid stability because they pull huge amounts of power at unpredictable times. The grid wasn’t built for this.  Unless we expand energy generation and build out transmission aggressively, the lights will start to flicker on our future prosperity. New York Times 16 June 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/opinion/clean-energy-investment-bridges-grid.html Neglecting Grids Would Be the Ultimate Power Failure https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/neglecting-grids-would-be-ultimate.html

The four executive orders recently signed by President Donald Trump help to address the importance and growth of the U.S. nuclear-energy sector in domestic power generation, but it’ll be quite a challenge for the nation to provide the uranium it requires to quadruple nuclear-energy capacity in 25 years. In order to meet the U.S. government’s nuclear-energy-capacity goal, it would need to quadruple the nation’s current demand of around 45 million pounds of U3O8 — uranium concentrate — to roughly 180 million pounds each year MarketWatch 3 June 2025 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-and-metas-nuclear-deals-address-the-ai-fueled-energy-crisis-but-can-u-s-uranium-supply-meet-demand-52a22455

Stora batteriparker är centrala för den gröna omställningen.  Men de kräver mycket mer material än vad världen kan få fram, enligt en geologisk rapport. Anders Bolling Fokus 2 juni 2025 https://www.fokus.se/aktuellt/batterirevolutionen-kraver-resurser-som-inte-finns/

  ”Vi har en fantastisk techscen och de senaste investeringarna från bolag som Brookfield, Nvidia och Microsoft är tydliga kvitton på det”, säger statsminister Ulf Kristersson och syftar på tidigare tillkännagivanden om miljardinvesteringar i svensk AI-infrastruktur. DI 4 juni 2025 https://www.di.se/digital/statsministern-om-miljarderna-till-hemkommunen-extra-kul/ Strängnäs jublar: ”Kan bli norra Europas AI-centrum” https://www.di.se/digital/strangnas-jublar-kan-bli-norra-europas-ai-centrum/

  Failures in electricity grids are thankfully rare. But when they strike — as with the March fire that shut down Heathrow Airport, or the Iberian Peninsula blackout that left 50 million people without power in April — they raise a wider question:  Are our grids adapting fast enough to a world of rising demand, new threats and cleaner power? US alone will require 57% more transmission infrastructure by 2035.  Europe needs a third more interconnectors — cables linking the continent’s wholesale electricity markets — than currently planned in order to optimize its grid by 2030. Bloomberg Editorial 2 June 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-02/neglecting-electricity-grids-would-be-the-ultimate-power-failure

  from 2023 levels to meet demand, far higher than any supply growth the US has achieved in the past two decades Nearly 45 per cent of this demand growth is being driven by the construction of power-hungry data centres required to support the rollout of AI technologies.     Financial Times 4 February 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/47dbfee3-5517-43c6-85ab-dfe86d2d4085 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 4 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-4-februari-2025.html

 The polluting coal plant is on its way out.  The most valuable of its parts is the plug — how it connects to the grid that powers our homes. Instead of letting it go to waste as the fossil fuel plant closes, Xcel Energy is going to leave it plugged in to connect the largest solar project in the Upper Midwest, and one of the largest in the entire country, directly to the grid. CNN 16 September 2024 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/16/climate/coal-to-solar-minnesota/index.html

På söndagen var det minuspriser på el i hela landet  Nu är det minuspriser på el | SvD   Where will states like Minnesota turn when the wind stops blowing and the sun stops shining, two inevitable daily occurrences?  Mr. Walz and net-zero backers surely assumed they could buy backup power from across the region, but other states assumed the same thing.  In a classic tragedy of the commons, Mr. Walz and other leaders act as if they don’t realize their neighbors are also on track to run short of power. When subzero temperatures sweep across the Great Lakes every January, states will increasingly ask each other for power that doesn’t exist.  Ditto when heat waves crest in July and August.  Mish 11 August 2024 https://mishtalk.com/economics/net-zero-climate-policies-could-leave-the-midwest-in-the-dark/ ”Även om Sverige har ett stort överskott på elproduktion på årsbasis, så har marginalerna för att möta störningar och förbrukningstoppar, särskilt kalla vinterda...

Energy companies are working to adapt to record-setting temperatures, floods and windstorms, as climate models forecast the weather will keep getting wilder.  But researchers caution that the effects of global warming and current extreme-heat conditions still aren’t well understood, making solutions hard to come by. Over the past five years, the U.S. has seen an average of 20 weather-related disasters a year with a price tag of $1 billion or more, adjusted for inflation, compared with a 43-year average of 8.5, according to data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.  There have already been 15 such disasters this year through June. Wall Street Journal 29 June 2024 https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/extreme-weather-climate-change-power-grids-5df41b9c?mod=hp_lead_pos10 What happens when the AI revolution meets the energy transition? A search by Chatgpt may consume ten times the electricity of googling. International Energy Agency says that by 2026...

https://www.di.se/nyheter/livlinan-forsvinner-pataglig-risk-for-effektbrist/ Sista natten med gänget Filmen handlar om ett gäng ungdomar, som just gått ur high school, en sensommarkväll 1962 i staden Modesto i Kalifornien.  Det är en skildring av ungdomsliv och tonårsdrömmar i allmänhet och av ungdomar i USA under 1960-talet i synnerhet. RE: Sedan åkte några av dem till Vietnam. Sista natten med gänget – Wikipedia Rolf Englund i Lund 1962-1966 Universitas Lundensis (internetional.se)

Nu planeras rekordinvesteringar på över 16 miljarder kronor.  Inklusive en annan storsatsning har Svenska kraftnät nu på kort tid gett grönt ljus för investeringar på över 20 miljarder kronor. Sveriges elsystem har byggts ut under lång tid. Nu ska vi i princip bygga ett nytt lika stort på bara 20 år”, sa generaldirektören Lotta Medelius-Bredhe till Di i mars. rekordinvesteringar på 185 miljarder kronor i det nationella elnätet – men det kommer långt ifrån att räcka för att klara elbehoven.  https://www.di.se/nyheter/varningen-elen-racker-inte-trots-rekordinvesteringar / DI 25 juni 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/jattesatsningen-16-miljarder-till-nytt-rekordprojekt/ Svenska kraftnät  https://www.svk.se/